... FinancialModelingwith Crystal Ball andExcel JOHN CHARNES John Wiley & Sons, Inc FinancialModelingwith Crystal Ball andExcel Founded in 1807, John Wiley ... probability and statistics in college and hated every minute of them I thought I was done with that stuff How can it help me?’’ FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL In short, probability and ... output and analyze the model’s sensitivity to changes in its inputs The chapter concludes with a discussion of the benefits and limitations of risk analysis with Crystal Ball andExcelFINANCIAL MODELING...
... FinancialModelingwith Crystal Ball andExcel JOHN CHARNES John Wiley & Sons, Inc FinancialModelingwith Crystal Ball andExcel Founded in 1807, John Wiley ... probability and statistics in college and hated every minute of them I thought I was done with that stuff How can it help me?’’ FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL In short, probability and ... output and analyze the model’s sensitivity to changes in its inputs The chapter concludes with a discussion of the benefits and limitations of risk analysis with Crystal Ball andExcelFINANCIAL MODELING...
... 18 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 2.5 Frequency distributions depicting negative (Skewness = −2), positive (+2), and near-zero (0.02) skewness at top left, top right, and ... from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile, and the 90 percent band extends from the 5th to the 95th 24 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 2.12 Step in using the Decision ... simulation 16 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 2.4 Forecast chart statistics for accumulated value after 30 years of retirement savings where 50 percent was put into stocks and 50...
... both the Name: and the Units: can be specified with a cell reference 31 32 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 3.4 Defining the demand assumption for the Alaskan Golf purchase ... section, we will add assumptions and a forecast to the deterministic model in AKGolf.xls to create a stochastic model 30 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL TABLE 3.1 Stochastic assumptions ... model and rerunning several times before making a decision about the business problem Crystal Ball is designed to run the simulations and provide graphical and numerical summaries 34 FINANCIAL MODELING...
... parameters, the minimum and maximum values It produces any continuous value between the minimum and maximum with equal likelihood The 44 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 4.9 Continuous ... H2 and I2 from the data in 66 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL cells B2:B78 and C2:C78, respectively, in the spreadsheet PearsonSpearman.xls Cell H2 is lognormal(1.18,0.36), and ... normally distributed with mean µ = percent and standard deviation σ = percent, and Regime 2, where monthly rates of returns are normally distributed with mean µ = percent and standard deviation σ...
... namely an Abandon Point of −6 and an Expansion Point of For both Figures 5.27 and 5.22, we used four 94 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL different values for Abandon Point and seven ... second quarter of year, and abandon the project if three consecutive quarters of cash flow below −$6 occur; and (2) expand if 88 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 5.21 Step ... 80 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 5.12 Spreadsheet segment from Project.xls Note that columns E through K are hidden normally distributed with a mean of 50 percent, and...
... Applications (VBA) FIGURE 6.7 Run Preferences Options tab 104 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCELand wish to things Excel doesn’t already do, or you wish to extra processing during ... precision of $46,587 was reached in 40,000 trials 100 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 6.5 Run Preferences Sampling tab these random numbers has the capability to produce over ... 96 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 6.1 Run Preferences Trials tab Crystal Ball executes the simulation...
... 106 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 7.1 Spreadsheet segment to model annuity with deterministic cash flows of −$100 at the end of Year 0, and $30 at the end ... through a statistical 116 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 7.11 Spider chart analysis of the relationships between the randomly generated inputs and outputs calculated during ... cells C16:L20 of ScooterSimulation.xls 118 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL between e1,t and e2,t is 0.8, while the correlation between e1,t and e4,t is −0.8 However, the errors are...
... general and administrative (SG&A) expenses Modeling Financial Statements FIGURE 8.2 Balance sheet in Sengupta.xls FIGURE 8.3 Common-size statements in Sengupta.xls 127 128 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH ... 126 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 8.1 Historical income statement in Sengupta.xls income statement ... and cost of sales as a percentage year-by-year as Crystal Ball assumptions In Chapter 11, we look closer at modeling financial time series with this sort of multiplicative random walk model, and...
... horizon, the estimated median value of her 138 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL TABLE 9.4 Optimal asset allocations and sustainable withdrawal rates for two planning horizons Horizon ... sustainable retirement withdrawal is determined by limiting the probability of running out of funds to some specified level, such as 136 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL percent The sustainable ... in cells N13:Q13 by using Batch Fit to find the distributions and Spearman correlations 134 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL TABLE 9.3 Spearman correlation matrix for annual total...
... 0.45, invested in Assets 1, 2, and 3, respectively Asset rates of return are 144 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 10.4 Crystal Ball model to find VaR and CVaR normally distributed, ... subadditivity of CVaR in a situation for which VaR is not subadditive 146 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL TABLE 10.2 VaR and CVaR for independent investments modeled in CVaRSubadditivity.xls ... out some of its shortcomings, which are discussed in the next section 142 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL SHORTCOMINGS OF VAR VaR provides no information about the extent of losses...
... FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 11.8 Crystal Ball model on the ‘‘Vector Random Walk’’ worksheet of RandomWalkWithDrift.xls for forecasting a vector time series with a random ... Extreme returns appear in clusters 154 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL Varying volatility and clustered, leptokurtic returns can be modeled with some type of mixture model The remainder ... Simulating Financial Time Series 155 FIGURE 11.7 Crystal Ball model on the ‘‘Scalar Random Walk’’ worksheet of RandomWalkWithDrift.xls for forecasting a time series with a random walk with drift...
... supply and demand cause the price to rise in that market Similarly, when the arbitrageurs sell the securities in the market with the higher price, the forces of supply and demand 172 FINANCIALMODELING ... 176 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 12.4 Forecast charts from model in VFH.xls to simulate the return on holding a stock and a put option August 21 through March 16, and ... an Asian average-price call option for a stock with S0 = $40, K = $40, σ = 30%, r = 8%, and T = 0.25 182 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL FIGURE 12.10 Spreadsheet segment from model...
... cash flows from investment 192 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL are: market demand for products and services, labor supply and cost, or materials supply and cost Exercise price, K The ... ln + L µ2 L and σ = ln + FIGURE A.16 Lognormal distribution with µL = 2.72 and σL = σL µL 220 FINANCIALMODELINGWITH CRYSTAL BALL ANDEXCEL CDF: No closed form Mean: µL = eµ+σ /2 Standard deviation: ... Mean = µ, and StdDev = σ Notes: Be sure to keep clear the difference between µL and σL , the mean and standard deviation of the lognormal random variable, X; and µ and σ , the mean and standard...
... Microsoft ExcelExcel 2002 Icon Before you can any work in Excel, you have to run the program In Windows, programs are generally started by double-clicking on the program’s icon The location of the Excel ... Microsoft Exceland displays the name of the currently active workbook • Appears brightly colored when Excel is the active program • Can be “grabbed” with the mouse to move the window around within ... Merge and Center button Number Formats Aside from changing the typeface and type size, when dealing with numbers we can also change their appearance by adding commas and dollar signs, and by...
... REPORTING WITH WEB SERVICESAND MOBILE DEVICES //declare connection, command and other related objects SqlConnection conReport = new SqlConnection(cnString); SqlCommand cmdReport = new SqlCommand(); ... using System; System.Web; System.Web .Services; System.Web .Services. Protocols; 8547ch06final.qxd 8/30/07 3:50 PM Page 231 CHAPTER s REPORTING WITH WEB SERVICESAND MOBILE DEVICES [WebService(Namespace ... user Figure 6-4 Web service with default generated and newly created web methods 8547ch06final.qxd 8/30/07 3:50 PM Page 233 CHAPTER s REPORTING WITH WEB SERVICESAND MOBILE DEVICES How Does the...
... Microsoft ExcelExcel 2002 Icon Before you can any work in Excel, you have to run the program In Windows, programs are generally started by double-clicking on the program’s icon The location of the Excel ... Microsoft Exceland displays the name of the currently active workbook • Appears brightly colored when Excel is the active program • Can be “grabbed” with the mouse to move the window around within ... Merge and Center button Number Formats Aside from changing the typeface and type size, when dealing with numbers we can also change their appearance by adding commas and dollar signs, and by...
... Terrain Modelingwith Ogre3D, UDK, and Unity3D Create massive terrains and export them to the most popular game engines Richard A Hawley BIRMINGHAM - MUMBAI www.it-ebooks.info Grome Terrain Modeling ... read and search across Packt’s entire library of books. Why Subscribe? • Fully searchable across every book published by Packt • Copy and paste, print and bookmark content • On demand and accessible ... a map on an island, you will want lots of detail for the land and less in the sea region However, game engines such as Unity, UDK, and Ogre3 Dare are not easily adapted to deal with such variability...
... Case Driven Object Modelingwith UML Theory and Practice Doug Rosenberg and Matt Stephens 7745fmfinal.qxd 12/13/06 9:23 PM Page ii Use Case Driven Object Modelingwith UML: Theory and Practice Copyright ... “COMPREHENSIVE COM” and “Enterprise Architect for Power Users,” and is the coauthor of Use Case Driven Object Modelingwith UML (Addison-Wesley, 1999) and Applying Use Case Driven Object Modelingwith UML ... course goes along with it) With the code and tests written for a particular use case (and with the tests passing!), it’s important to perform a Code Review and Model Update Code Review and Model Update...
... 10, 2008 Modelingwith Data gsl_stats July 10, 2008 gsl_stats July 10, 2008 Modelingwith Data Tools and Techniques for Scientic Computing Ben Klemens PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD ... simple equation And thats the whole book: develop models whose parameters and tests may discover and verify interesting patterns in the data But the setup is incredibly versatile, andwith different ... table of numbers, and are an effective means of communicating with peers and persuading grantmakers Consistent with the rest of this book, Chapter will cover the use of Gnuplot and Graphviz, two...