Nghiên cứu thống kê cơ cấu kinh tế Việt Nam giai đoạn 1986-2012

Header Page of 148 Bộ giáo dục đào tạo Trờng Trờng đại học kinh tế quốc dân - - Trần thị hơng Nghiên cứu thống kê cấu kinh tế việt nam giai đoạn 1986-2012 CHUYÊN NGàNH: kinh tế học (thống kê kinh tế) Mã số: 62 31 01 01 Ngi hng dn khoa hc: GS.TS PHAN CễNG NGHA Hà nội - 2016 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 i LI CAM OAN Tụi xin cam oan õy l cụng trỡnh nghiờn cu khoa hc c lp ca cỏ nhõn tụi Cỏc kt qu nghiờn cu lun ỏn l tỏc gi thc hin Cỏc ti liu, s liu v trớch dn ó s dng l hon ton trung thc, chớnh xỏc Cỏc kt qu nghiờn cu ca Lun ỏn ó c tỏc gi cụng b trờn khoa hc khụng trựng lp vi bt k cụng trỡnh no khỏc H Ni, ngy thỏng nm 2016 Tỏc gi lun ỏn Trn Th Thanh Hng Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 ii MC LC LI CAM OAN i MC LC ii DANH MC T VIT TT v DANH MC BNG vi DANH MC BIU vii PHN M U CHNG 1: NHNG VN Lí LUN C BN V C CU KINH T V CHUYN DCH C CU KINH T 17 1.1 C cu kinh t 17 1.1.1 Khỏi nim c cu kinh t 17 1.1.2.Cỏc c trng ch yu ca c cu kinh t 19 1.1.3.Cỏc loi c cu kinh t .20 1.2 Chuyn dch c cu kinh t 31 1.2.1 Khỏi nim chuyn dch c cu kinh t 31 1.2.2.Cỏc nhõn t nh hng n s hỡnh thnh,chuyn dch c cu kinh t 33 1.2.3 nh hng ca chuyn dch c cu kinh t n tng trng v phỏt trin kinh t xó hi .42 CHNG 2: HON THIN H THNG CH TIấU V LA CHN H PHNG PHP THNG Kấ PHN TCH C CU KINH T V CHUYN DCH C CU KINH T 49 2.1 Thc trng v h thng ch tiờu v phng phỏp thng kờ phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t Vit Nam 49 2.1.1 H thng hin hnh thc hin thng kờ v phõn tớch c cu kinh t Vit Nam .49 2.1.2 Thc trng h thng ch tiờu thng kờ c cu kinh t Vit Nam 51 2.1.3 Thc trng dng cỏc phng phỏp thng kờ phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t Vit Nam 57 2.2 Hon thin h thng ch tiờu thng kờ c cu kinh t v xỏc nh cỏc phng phỏp xỏc nh v biu hin c cu kinh t 57 2.2.1 Hon thin h thng ch tiờu thng kờ c cu kinh t .57 2.2.2 Cỏc phng phỏp xỏc nh v biu hin c cu kinh t 68 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 iii 2.3 La chn h phng phỏp thng kờ phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t .69 2.3.1 Mt s chung v phõn tớch thng kờ c cu kinh t 69 2.3.2.La chn cỏc phng phỏp thng kờ phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t 70 2.3.3.c im dng cỏc phng phỏp thng kờ phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t 76 CHNG 3: PHN TCH C CU KINH T V CHUYN DCH C CU KINH T CA VIT NAM GIAI ON 1986-2012 103 3.1 Ch trng ca ng v Nh nc Vit Nam v chuyn dch c cu kinh t 103 3.2 La chn ch tiờu v phng phỏp thng kờ phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 106 3.2.1 La chn ch tiờu thng kờ c cu kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 106 3.2.2 La chn cỏc phng phỏp thng kờ phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 107 3.3 Tớnh toỏn cỏc ch tiờu thng kờ c cu kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 108 3.3.1 Tớnh toỏn cỏc ch tiờu o lng c cu theo nhúm ngnh kinh t xột theo ch tiờu u 108 3.3.2 Tớnh toỏn cỏc ch tiờu o lng c cu theo nhúm ngnh kinh t xột theo ch tiờu u vo 110 3.4 Vn dng phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 113 3.4.1.Phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 113 3.4.2 Phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu theo thnh phn kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 140 3.4.3 Phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t theo vựng lónh th ca Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 145 3.5 ỏnh giỏ chung v c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 v mt s gii phỏp thỳc y chuyn dch c cu kinh t 152 3.5.1 ỏnh giỏ chung v c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012 152 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 iv 3.5.2.Mt s gii phỏp nhm thỳc y chuyn dch c cu kinh t theo hng tớch cc 153 3.6 ỏnh giỏ chung v vic dng h thng ch tiờu v phng phỏp thng kờ phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t ca Vit Nam v mt s kin ngh 155 3.6.1 ỏnh giỏ chung v vic dng h thng ch tiờu v phng phỏp thng kờ phõn tớch c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t 155 3.6.2 Kin ngh 156 KT LUN 159 DANH MC CC CễNG TRèNH CA TC GI CễNG B Cể LIấN QUAN N LUN N TI LIU THAM KHO Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 v DANH MC T VIT TT ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Hip hi cỏc Quc gia ụng Nam CCKT C cu kinh t CCL C cu lao ng CCVT C cu u t CNXD Cụng nghip v xõy dng DV Dch v GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Tng sn phm quc ni GO (Gross Out put) Giỏ tr sn xut KTQD Kinh t quc dõn KHCN Khoa hc - Cụng ngh KTXH Kinh t - xó hi NSL Nng sut lao ụng NSLXH Nng sut lao ng xó hi NLTS Nụng, lõm nghip, thy sn TPKT Thnh phn kinh t VA (Value added) Giỏ tr tng thờm VT Vn u t Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 vi DANH MC BNG Bng 2.1: Nhim v v phng phỏp phõn tớch thng kờ c cu kinh t 75 Bng 3.1: C cu GDP theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam 109 giai on 1986-2012 (giỏ thc t) 109 Bng 3.2: C cu lao ng theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam 110 giai on 1985-2012 110 Bng 3.3: C cu u t theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1995-2012 (giỏ thc t) 112 Bng 3.4: C cu GDP theo nhúm ngnh kinh t mt s quc gia 116 1990-2011 (giỏ thc t), % 116 Bng 3.5: Tc tng (liờn hon) GDP giai on 1990 -2012 ca Vit Nam v mt s quc gia (giỏ so sỏnh), % 117 Bng 3.6: Kt qu d bỏo t trng VA ca nhúm ngnh nụng lõm thy sn GDP ca Vit Nam n nm 2020 theo phng phỏp Brown, % 138 Bng 3.7: Kt qu d bỏo t trng VA ca nhúm ngnh cụng nghip xõy dng GDP ca Vit Nam n nm 2020 theo phng phỏp Holt, % 138 Bng 3.8: Kt qu d bỏo t trng VA ca nhúm ngnh dch v GDP ca Vit Nam n nm 2020 theo phng phỏp Brown, % 139 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 vii DANH MC BIU Biu 3.1: C cu GDP theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam 110 giai on 1986-2012 (giỏ thc t), % 110 Biu 3.2: C cu lao ng theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam 111 giai on 1985-2012, % 111 Biu 3.3: C cu u t theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam 112 giai on 1995-2012 (giỏ thc t), % 112 Biu 3.4: Tc tng GDP v VA cỏc nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam bỡnh quõn cỏc giai on (giỏ so sỏnh 1994) (%) 118 Biu 3.5: Tc tng (gim) liờn hon u t, GDP v VA cỏc nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1996-2012 (giỏ so sỏnh 1994),% 121 Biu 3.6: Xu th chuyn dch c cu GDP theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1986-2012, % 123 Biu 3.7: Xu th chuyn dch c cu lao ng theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1985-2012 (%) 124 Biu 3.8: Xu th chuyn dch c cu u t theo nhúm ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 1995-2012 (%) 124 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 PHN M U Lý chn ti 1.1 Tớnh cp thit ca ti ti nghiờn cu c xỏc nh t lý sau õy: Th nht, t vai trũ ca c cu v chuyn dch c cu kinh t Xut phỏt t yờu cu ca tng trng v phỏt trin kinh t Phỏt trin kinh t cn c hiu khụng ch l s tng lờn v quy mụ m cũn c s thay i c cu kinh t (CCKT) theo hng tớch cc S thay i CCKT phn ỏnh trỡnh phỏt trin ca sc sn xut xó hi, biu hin ch yu trờn hai mt: mt l lc lng sn xut cng phỏt trin cng to iu kin cho quỏ trỡnh phõn cụng lao ng xó hi tr lờn sõu sc; hai l s phỏt trin ca phõn cụng lao ng xó hi lm cho cỏc mi quan h kinh t th trng ngy cng cng c v phỏt trin S thay i v s lng v cht lng ca CCKT, c bit l c cu theo ngnh kinh t phn ỏnh trỡnh phỏt trin ca sc sn xut xó hi Mt quc gia cú CCKT hp lý s thỳc y nn kinh t phỏt trin bn vng v ngc li, CCKT lc hu s cn tr s tng trng, phỏt trin ca nn kinh t Th hai, t nh hng ca ng v Nh nc Vit Nam v phỏt trin kinh t xó hi v chuyn dch c cu kinh t Trong tin trỡnh i mi t nc, i hi VI l bc t phỏ u tiờn v i mi t ca ng v phỏt trin kinh t ú l vic xỏc lp, xõy dng CCKT phự hp vi s ng ca quy lut khỏch quan v trỡnh ca nn kinh t õy l c s thc tin, lý lun quan trng cho i hi VII ch trng hon thin CCKT v i hi VIII, IX ch trng y mnh chuyn dch CCKT theo hng cụng nghip húa, hin i húa n nay, Vit Nam ó cú mt CCKT tng i hp lý v ang chuyn dch theo hng cụng nghip húa, hin i húa, giỏ tr tng thờm (VA) ca cỏc nhúm ngnh cụng nghip v xõy dng (CNXD), dch v (DV) chim t trng ngy cng ln tng sn phm quc ni (GDP); nh hng v nhim v ch yu k hoch phỏt trin kinh t ca Vit Nam l phn u GDP giai on 2011-2015 tng 7-8% mi nm CCKT n nm 2015: Khu vc I, nụng, lõm nghip v thy sn (NLTS): 17-18%; khu vc II (CNXD): 41-42%; khu vc III (DV): 4142%1 Nhng thnh tu m Vit Nam t c nhng nm u v c chng ng gn 30 nm i mi, phỏt trin cú nguyờn nhõn ca s tỡm tũi, xỏc lp mt CCKT phự hp Ngh quyt i hi ton quc ln th XI ca ng Footer Page of 148 Header Page 10 of 148 Tuy nhiờn, sau gn 30 nm i mi, bờn cnh nhng thnh tu m Vit Nam ó t c, n mụ hỡnh tng trng kinh t ang cú nhng bt cp Vi vic gia tng nhanh u t (VT), lm dng khai thỏc ti nguyờn thụ, tn dng lao ng giỏ r theo ui cỏc mc tiờu tng trng, mụ hỡnh tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam hin c ỏnh giỏ l mụ hỡnh tng trng dn tri theo chiu rng, kộm hiu qu di hn Mụ hỡnh ny cha thc s phỏt huy c cỏc th mnh, li th ca nn kinh t Vit Nam Dn n kinh t phỏt trin cha bn vng, cht lng, hiu qu, sc cnh tranh ca nn kinh t cũn thp Chuyn dch CCKT cũn bc l nhiu bt cp nh: chuyn dch CCKT cú xu hng chng li; t trng ca nhúm ngnh CNXD tng chm, t trng ca nhúm ngnh DV cú xu hng gim sỳt, Hi ngh ln th ba Ban chp hnh Trung ng khúa XI ó ch rừ nguyờn nhõn ch quan ca nhng hn ch trờn l yu kộm ca ni ti nn kinh t vi mụ hỡnh tng trng v CCKT lc hu, kộm hiu qu Hi ngh cng ch rừ cn i mi mụ hỡnh tng trng, c cu li nn kinh t nhm a kinh t Vit Nam phỏt trin nhanh v bn vng CCKT mi i cựng thỳc y hỡnh thnh mụ hỡnh tng trng mi chớnh l iu kin cú cht lng tng trng mi thc hin mc tiờu a Vit Nam v c bn tr thnh nc cụng nghip vo nm 2020, vic tng kt nhng bi hc ca quỏ trỡnh chuyn dch CCKT Vit Nam giai on t i mi n v phõn tớch c nhng nguyờn nhõn ca nhng thnh cụng v tn ti giai on ny l ht sc cn thit Th ba, t vai trũ ca thng kờ nghiờn cu CCKT v chuyn dch CCKT Thng kờ l cụng c ca nhn thc v qun lý Do vy, nghiờn cu thng kờ CCKT v chuyn dch CCKT ca Vit Nam mt cỏch h thng ỏnh giỏ c mc v xu hng chuyn dch CCKT; mc v vai trũ nh hng ca cỏc nhõn t n chuyn dch CCKT; nh hng ca chuyn dch CCKT n tng trng v phỏt trin kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on hin l rt cn thit Nghiờn cu thng kờ CCKT v chuyn dch CCKT cho phộp xõy dng lun c khoa hc cho quỏ trỡnh chuyn dch CCKT theo hng cụng nghip húa, hin i húa; xỏc nh bn cht v c trng CCKT ca Vit Nam theo hng cụng nghip húa, hin i húa thụng qua cỏc nghiờn cu mang tớnh cht lý lun v thc tin Th t, t cỏc t thc tin thng kờ CCKT v chuyn dch CCKT Nghiờn cu thng kờ CCKT l mt nhng nhim v ht sc quan trng ca nghiờn cu kinh t núi chung v nghiờn cu thng kờ núi riờng Tuy nhiờn, nghiờn cu thng kờ CCKT cha thc s c coi trng giai on hin Footer Page 10 of 148 Header Page 261 of 148 Quadratic R ,728 Regression Residual Total R Square ,530 Model Summary Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate ,467 ANOVA Sum of Squares ,988 ,877 1,865 Df ,242 Mean Square 15 17 F ,494 ,058 Sig 8,452 ,003 Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std Error -,085 ,047 ,006 ,002 14,440 ,192 Case Sequence Case Sequence ** (Constant) Standardized Coefficients Beta -1,367 1,981 t Sig -1,824 2,643 75,254 ,088 ,018 ,000 Cubic R ,814 Regression Residual Total R Square ,662 Model Summary Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate ,590 ANOVA Sum of Squares 1,235 ,630 1,865 Df ,212 Mean Square 14 17 F ,412 ,045 Sig 9,151 ,001 Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std Error -,327 ,037 -,001 14,874 Case Sequence Case Sequence ** Case Sequence ** (Constant) ,111 ,013 ,000 ,250 Standardized Coefficients Beta -5,263 11,738 -6,053 t Sig -2,943 2,784 -2,343 59,468 ,011 ,015 ,034 ,000 Compound R ,559 R Square ,312 Model Summary Adjusted R Square ,269 Std Error of the Estimate ,020 Tớnh li: 0,292 ANOVA Mean Square F ,003 7,271 16 ,000 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta Case Sequence 1,002 ,001 1,749 (Constant) 14,043 ,136 The dependent variable is ln(dgdpbtb) Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares ,003 ,006 ,009 Df Sig ,016 t 1121,230 103,584 Sig ,000 ,000 Power R ,303 R Square ,092 Model Summary Adjusted R Square ,035 Std Error of the Estimate ,023 Tớnh li: 0,325 ANOVA Regression Residual Total Footer Page 261 of 148 Sum of Squares ,001 ,008 ,009 Df Mean Square 16 17 F ,001 ,001 Sig 1,613 ,222 Header Page 262 of 148 Coefficients ln(Case Sequence) (Constant) The dependent variable is ln(dgdpbtb) Standardized Coefficients Beta Unstandardized Coefficients B Std Error ,009 ,007 14,118 ,209 t ,303 Sig 1,270 67,612 ,222 ,000 3.4.Vựng TN Linear R ,523 Regression Residual Total R Square ,274 Model Summary Adjusted R Square ,228 ANOVA Sum of Squares 1,097 2,913 4,010 Std Error of the Estimate ,427 Mean Square F Sig 1,097 6,027 ,026 16 ,182 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta t Sig ,048 ,019 ,523 2,455 ,026 2,910 ,210 13,866 ,000 Case Sequence (Constant) Df Quadratic R ,849 Regression Residual Total Case Sequence Case Sequence ** (Constant) Model Summary Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate ,683 ,273 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F 2,888 1,444 19,313 1,122 15 ,075 4,010 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta -,203 ,053 -2,226 ,013 ,003 2,829 3,743 ,217 R Square ,720 Sig ,000 t Sig -3,851 4,894 17,248 ,002 ,000 ,000 Cubic R ,849 Model Summary Adjusted R Square R Square ,721 Std Error of the Estimate ,661 ,283 ANOVA Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 2,890 1,120 4,010 Df Mean Square 14 17 F ,963 ,080 Sig 12,044 ,000 Coefficients Case Sequence Case Sequence ** Case Sequence ** (Constant) Footer Page 262 of 148 Unstandardized Coefficients B Std Error -,182 ,011 9,259E-5 3,706 ,148 ,018 ,001 ,334 Standardized Coefficients Beta -2,000 2,262 ,352 t Sig -1,230 ,590 ,150 11,113 ,239 ,565 ,883 ,000 Header Page 263 of 148 Compound Model Summary Std Error of the Estimate ,492 ,130 Tớnh li: 0,424 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig Regression ,087 ,087 5,114 ,038 Residual ,271 16 ,017 Total ,358 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta t Sig Case Sequence 1,013 ,006 1,636 169,079 ,000 (Constant) 2,931 ,188 15,620 ,000 The dependent variable is ln(dgdptn) R R Square ,242 Adjusted R Square ,195 Power R ,269 R Square ,073 Model Summary Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate ,015 ,144 Tớnh li: 0,477 ANOVA Sum of Squares ,026 ,332 ,358 Regression Residual Total ln(Case Sequence) (Constant) The dependent variable is ln(dgdptn) Df Mean Square F ,026 1,251 16 ,021 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta ,049 ,044 ,269 3,016 ,285 Sig ,280 t Sig 1,118 10,593 3.5.Vựng NB Linear R ,152 Regression Residual Total Case Sequence (Constant) Model Summary Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate -,038 1,878 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig 1,332 1,332 ,378 ,547 56,418 16 3,526 57,750 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta T Sig ,052 ,085 ,152 ,615 ,547 34,787 ,923 37,671 ,000 R Square ,023 Quadratic R ,674 Regression Residual Total Footer Page 263 of 148 Model Summary Adjusted R Square ,381 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df 26,217 31,532 15 57,750 17 R Square ,454 Std Error of the Estimate 1,450 Mean Square 13,109 2,102 F Sig 6,236 ,011 ,280 ,000 Header Page 264 of 148 Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std Error ,985 ,279 -,049 ,014 31,679 1,151 Case Sequence Case Sequence ** (Constant) Standardized Coefficients Beta 2,852 -2,779 t Sig 3,531 -3,441 27,530 ,003 ,004 ,000 Cubic R ,705 Model Summary Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate ,389 1,441 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F 28,683 9,561 4,605 29,066 14 2,076 57,750 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta ,221 ,754 ,640 ,049 ,091 2,762 -,003 ,003 -3,437 33,048 1,699 R Square ,497 Regression Residual Total Case Sequence Case Sequence ** Case Sequence ** (Constant) Sig ,019 t Sig ,293 ,537 -1,090 19,451 ,774 ,600 ,294 ,000 Compound R ,152 R Square ,023 Model Summary Adjusted R Square -,038 Std Error of the Estimate ,052 Tớnh li: 1,892 ANOVA Df Mean Square F Sig Regression ,001 ,379 ,547 Residual 16 ,003 Total 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta T Sig Case Sequence 1,001 ,002 1,164 419,554 ,000 (Constant) 34,752 ,897 38,760 ,000 The dependent variable is ln(dgdpdnb) Sum of Squares ,001 ,044 ,045 Power R ,330 R Square ,109 Model Summary Adjusted R Square ,053 Std Error of the Estimate ,050 Tớnh li: 1,800 ANOVA Df Mean Square F Regression ,005 1,955 Residual 16 ,003 Total 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta ln(Case Sequence) ,021 ,015 ,330 (Constant) 33,762 1,109 The dependent variable is ln(dgdpdnb) Sum of Squares ,005 ,040 ,045 Footer Page 264 of 148 Sig ,181 T 1,398 30,448 Sig ,181 ,000 Header Page 265 of 148 3.6 Vựng BSCL Linear R ,851 Model Summary Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate ,707 ,766 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig 24,636 24,636 41,937 ,000 9,399 16 ,587 34,035 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta T Sig -,225 ,035 -,851 -6,476 ,000 19,591 ,377 51,978 ,000 R Square ,724 Regression Residual Total Case Sequence (Constant) Quadratic R ,923 Model Summary Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate ,831 ,581 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F 28,971 14,486 42,913 5,063 15 ,338 34,035 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta -,615 ,112 -2,319 ,020 ,006 1,511 20,888 ,461 R Square ,851 Regression Residual Total Case Sequence Case Sequence ** (Constant) Sig ,000 T Sig -5,500 3,584 45,299 ,000 ,003 ,000 Cubic R ,923 Model Summary Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate ,821 ,599 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F 29,013 9,671 26,965 5,021 14 ,359 34,035 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta -,715 ,313 -2,696 ,033 ,038 2,455 ,000 ,001 -,585 21,067 ,706 R Square ,852 Regression Residual Total Case Sequence Case Sequence ** Case Sequence ** (Constant) Sig ,000 T Sig -2,281 ,881 -,343 29,832 Compound R ,855 Regression Residual Total Footer Page 265 of 148 R Square ,731 Model Summary Adjusted R Square ,714 Sum of Squares ,077 ,028 ,105 ANOVA Df 16 17 Std Error of the Estimate ,042 Tớnh li: 0.747 Mean Square ,077 ,002 F 43,512 Sig ,000 ,039 ,393 ,737 ,000 Header Page 266 of 148 Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B Std Error Case Sequence ,987 ,002 (Constant) 19,610 ,406 The dependent variable is ln(dgdpdbscl) Standardized Coefficients Beta ,425 T 523,337 48,348 Sig ,000 ,000 Power R ,899 R Square ,808 Model Summary Adjusted R Square ,796 Std Error of the Estimate ,036 Tớnh li: 0.649 ANOVA Df Mean Square F Regression ,085 67,264 Residual 16 ,001 Total 17 Coefficients Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std Error Beta ln(Case Sequence) -,088 ,011 -,899 (Constant) 20,794 ,485 The dependent variable is ln(dgdpdbscl) Sum of Squares ,085 ,020 ,105 IV Phng phỏp san s m 4.1 Theo nhúm ngnh kinh t 4.1.1 NLTS 1/ Phng phỏp ca Holt 2/ Phng phỏp ca Brown Footer Page 266 of 148 Sig ,000 T -8,201 42,907 Sig ,000 ,000 Header Page 267 of 148 4.1.2 CNXD 1/ Phng phỏp ca Holt 2/ Phng phỏp ca Brown 4.1.3 DV 1/ Phng phỏp Holt 2/ Phng phỏp Brown 4.2 Theo thnh phn kinh t 4.2.1 TPKT nh nc 1/ Phng phỏp Holt Footer Page 267 of 148 Header Page 268 of 148 2/ Phng phỏp Brown 4.2.2 TPKT ngoi nh nc 1/ Phng phỏp Holt 2/ Phng phỏp Brown 4.2.3 TPKT u t nc ngoi 1/ Phng phỏp Holt 2/ Phng phỏp Brown Footer Page 268 of 148 Header Page 269 of 148 PH LC VI: Mễ HèNH HI QUY Mụ hỡnh 2.37 Bng 6.1: Kt qu c lng mụ hỡnh 2.37 Random-effects GLS regression Group variable: id Number of obs Number of groups = = 504 63 R-sq: Obs per group: = avg = max = 8.0 within = 0.8580 between = 0.9532 overall = 0.9447 corr(u_i, X) Wald chi2(6) Prob > chi2 = (assumed) Std Err z P>|z| = = lnGDP Coef TLVDT lnLD TLldcntre TLlddvtre NSLD_CN NSLD_DV _cons -.2502897 1.083407 0122203 0112403 0054039 0187749 -6.468088 0279667 0370068 001518 0014066 0004279 001343 4870467 sigma_u sigma_e rho 16710522 10434335 71947793 (fraction of variance due to u_i) -8.95 29.28 8.05 7.99 12.63 13.98 -13.28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 3962.27 0.0000 [95% Conf Interval] -.3051033 1.010875 0092451 0084834 0045653 0161426 -7.422682 -.195476 1.155939 0151955 0139973 0062426 0214071 -5.513494 Bng 6.2: Kt qu kim nh Breusch-Pagan cho mụ hỡnh 2.37 Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects lnGDP[id,t] = Xb + u[id] + e[id,t] Estimated results: Var lnGDP e u Test: sd = sqrt(Var) 7974735 0108875 0279242 8930137 1043434 1671052 Var(u) = chibar2(01) = Prob > chibar2 = 761.38 0.0000 Bng 6.3: Kt qu kim nh Hausman cho mụ hỡnh 2.37 Coefficients (b) (B) mohinhfe mohinhre TLVDT lnLD TLldcntre TLlddvtre NSLD_CN NSLD_DV -.2642917 1.071632 010339 0081656 0047423 0197329 -.2502897 1.083407 0122203 0112403 0054039 0187749 (b-B) Difference -.0140021 -.0117754 -.0018813 -.0030747 -.0006617 000958 sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E .0098595 0555731 0007249 0007211 0002403 0005054 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(6) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 31.21 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 (V_b-V_B is not positive definite) Footer Page 269 of 148 Header Page 270 of 148 Bng 6.4: Kt qu kim nh Wooldridge cho mụ hỡnh 2.37 Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first-order autocorrelation F( 1, 62) = 334.561 Prob > F = 0.0000 Bng 6.5: Kt qu kim nh Wald cho mụ hỡnh 2.37 Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (63) = Prob>chi2 = 2663.14 0.0000 Bng 6.6: Kt qu c lng Robust cho mụ hỡnh 2.37 Fixed-effects (within) regression Group variable: id Number of obs Number of groups = = 504 63 R-sq: Obs per group: = avg = max = 8.0 within = 0.8602 between = 0.9437 overall = 0.9360 corr(u_i, Xb) F(6,62) Prob > F = 0.3272 = = 200.42 0.0000 (Std Err adjusted for 63 clusters in id) lnGDP Coef TLVDT lnLD TLldcntre TLlddvtre NSLD_CN NSLD_DV _cons -.2642917 1.071632 010339 0081656 0047423 0197329 -6.192136 sigma_u 21746021 Footer Page 270 of 148 Robust Std Err .0832773 1460845 003057 0021804 0011716 0021699 1.950811 t -3.17 7.34 3.38 3.74 4.05 9.09 -3.17 P>|t| 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 [95% Conf Interval] -.4307607 7796132 004228 003807 0024002 0153953 -10.09175 -.0978228 1.363651 0164499 0125242 0070843 0240704 -2.29252 Header Page 271 of 148 Mụ hỡnh 2.38: Bng 6.7: Kt qu c lng cho mụ hỡnh 2.38 Random-effects GLS regression Group variable: id Number of obs Number of groups = = 567 63 R-sq: Obs per group: = avg = max = 9.0 within = 0.8670 between = 0.8066 overall = 0.8086 corr(u_i, X) Wald chi2(4) Prob > chi2 = (assumed) logGDPbq Coef TLldcn TLlddv NSLD_CN NSLD_DV _cons 0158222 0248497 0067978 036028 0828917 sigma_u sigma_e rho 19692473 10382011 78250491 Std Err z 0015064 0013676 0004093 0011961 0441868 10.50 18.17 16.61 30.12 1.88 P>|z| 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.061 = = 3306.73 0.0000 [95% Conf Interval] 0128697 0221693 0059956 0336837 -.0037127 0187747 0275301 0075999 0383722 1694962 (fraction of variance due to u_i) Bng 6.8: Kt qu kim nh Breusch-Pagan cho mụ hỡnh 2.38 Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects logGDPbq[id,t] = Xb + u[id] + e[id,t] Estimated results: Var logGDPbq e u Test: sd = sqrt(Var) 2747887 0107786 0387794 5242029 1038201 1969247 Var(u) = chibar2(01) = Prob > chibar2 = 1166.90 0.0000 Bng 6.9: Kt qu kim nh Hausman cho mụ hỡnh 2.38 Coefficients (b) (B) mohinhfe mohinhre TLldcn TLlddv NSLD_CN NSLD_DV 0170656 0277979 0068854 0366336 0158222 0248497 0067978 036028 (b-B) Difference 0012434 0029482 0000876 0006056 sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E .0005864 000513 0001558 0001421 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(4) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 41.07 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 (V_b-V_B is not positive definite) Footer Page 271 of 148 Header Page 272 of 148 Bng 6.10: Kt qu kim nh Wooldridge cho mụ hỡnh 2.38 Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first-order autocorrelation F( 1, 62) = 116.178 Prob > F = 0.0000 Bng 6.11: Kt qu kim nh Wald cho mụ hỡnh 2.38 Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (63) = Prob>chi2 = 4140.64 0.0000 Bng 6.12: Kt qu c lng Robust cho mụ hỡnh 2.38 Fixed-effects (within) regression Group variable: id Number of obs Number of groups = = 567 63 R-sq: Obs per group: = avg = max = 9.0 within = 0.8679 between = 0.8033 overall = 0.8040 corr(u_i, Xb) F(4,62) Prob > F = -0.5861 = = 241.15 0.0000 (Std Err adjusted for 63 clusters in id) Robust Std Err logGDPbq Coef TLldcn TLlddv NSLD_CN NSLD_DV _cons 0170656 0277979 0068854 0366336 -.0252837 0031789 0025256 0016686 002797 0630847 sigma_u sigma_e rho 26173945 10382011 86405426 (fraction of variance due to u_i) Footer Page 272 of 148 t 5.37 11.01 4.13 13.10 -0.40 P>|t| 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.690 [95% Conf Interval] 010711 0227494 0035498 0310425 -.1513882 0234202 0328464 0102209 0422246 1008208 Header Page 273 of 148 Mụ hỡnh 2.40: Bng 6.13: Kt qu c lng cho mụ hỡnh 2.40 Random-effects GLS regression Group variable: id Number of obs Number of groups = = 567 63 R-sq: Obs per group: = avg = max = 9.0 within = 0.1861 between = 0.4691 overall = 0.4431 corr(u_i, X) Wald chi2(2) Prob > chi2 = (assumed) TLVAphinn Coef TLldcn TLlddv _cons 3886944 3803979 51.40544 sigma_u sigma_e rho 10.290728 3.9241283 87304984 Std Err .0542991 0510019 1.8542 z 7.16 7.46 27.72 = = 162.09 0.0000 P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] 0.000 0.000 0.000 2822702 2804361 47.77128 4951186 4803598 55.03961 (fraction of variance due to u_i) Bng 6.14: Kt qu kim nh Breusch-Pagan cho mụ hỡnh 2.40 Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects TLVAphinn[id,t] = Xb + u[id] + e[id,t] Estimated results: Var TLVAphinn e u Test: sd = sqrt(Var) 233.1296 15.39878 105.8991 15.26858 3.924128 10.29073 Var(u) = chibar2(01) = Prob > chibar2 = 1605.72 0.0000 Bng 6.15: Kt qu kim nh Hausman cho mụ hỡnh 2.40 Coefficients (b) (B) mohinhfe mohinhre TLldcn TLlddv 3181385 3750377 3886944 3803979 (b-B) Difference -.0705559 -.0053602 sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E .0156455 0142832 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(2) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 21.08 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 Bng 6.16: Kt qu kim nh Wooldridge cho mụ hỡnh 2.40 Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first-order autocorrelation F( 1, 62) = 51.249 Prob > F = 0.0000 Footer Page 273 of 148 Header Page 274 of 148 Bng 6.17: Kt qu kim nh Wald i cho mụ hỡnh 2.40 Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (63) = Prob>chi2 = 25960.01 0.0000 Bng 6.18: Kt qu c lng Robust cho mụ hỡnh 2.40 Fixed-effects (within) regression Group variable: id Number of obs Number of groups = = 567 63 R-sq: Obs per group: = avg = max = 9.0 within = 0.1870 between = 0.4548 overall = 0.4302 corr(u_i, Xb) F(2,62) Prob > F = 0.3254 = = 32.90 0.0000 (Std Err adjusted for 63 clusters in id) TLVAphinn Coef TLldcn TLlddv _cons 3181385 3750377 52.72934 sigma_u sigma_e rho 11.627822 3.9241283 89775386 Footer Page 274 of 148 Robust Std Err .0671748 0654223 1.843038 t 4.74 5.73 28.61 P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] 0.000 0.000 0.000 183858 2442604 49.04517 (fraction of variance due to u_i) 452419 505815 56.41352 Header Page 275 of 148 PH LC VII Vựng I: ng Bng Sụng Hng, gm: 11 tnh/ thnh ph: H Ni, Hi Phũng, Qung Ninh, Hi Dng, Hng Yờn, Bc Ninh, Vnh Phỳc, H Nam, Thỏi Bỡnh, Nam nh, Ninh Bỡnh; Vựng II: Trung Du v Min nỳi Phớa bc, gm 14 tnh/thnh ph: H Giang, Cao Bng, Bc Kn, Tuyờn Quang, Lo Cai, Yờn Bỏi, Thỏi Nguyờn, Lng Sn, Bc Giang, Phỳ Th; Lai Chõu, in Biờn, Sn La, Hũa Bỡnh; Vựng III: Bc Trung B v Duyờn Hi Min Trung, gm 14 tnh, thnh ph: Thanh Húa, Ngh An, H Tnh, Qung Bỡnh, Qung Tr, Tha Thiờn-Hu , Nng, Qung Nam, Qung Ngói, Bỡnh nh, Phỳ Yờn, Khỏnh Hũa; Ninh Thun; Bỡnh Thun; Vựng IV: Tõy Nguyờn, gm tnh/thnh ph: Kon Tum, Gia Lai, k Lk, k Nụng, Lõm ng; Vựng V: ụng Nam B, gm tnh/ thnh ph: Bỡnh Phc, Tõy Ninh, Bỡnh Dng, ng Nai, B Ra-Vng Tu, Tp H Chớ Minh; Vựng VI: ng Bng Sụng Cu Long, gm 13 tnh/thnh ph: Long An, Tin Giang, Bn Tre, Tr Vinh, Vnh Long, ng Thỏp, An Giang, Kiờn Giang, Cn Th, Hu Giang, Súc Trng, Bc Liờu, C Mau Footer Page 275 of 148 ... CƠ BẢN VỀ CƠ CẤU KINH TẾ VÀ CHUYỂN DỊCH CƠ CẤU KINH TẾ Chương “Những vấn đề lý luận cấu kinh tế chuyển dịch cấu kinh tế bao gồm mục: 1/ Cơ cấu kinh tế 2/ Chuyển dịch cấu kinh tế 1.1 Cơ cấu kinh. .. đoạn 1986-2012 106 3.2.1 Lựa chọn tiêu thống kê cấu kinh tế Việt Nam giai đoạn 1986-2012 106 3.2.2 Lựa chọn phương pháp thống kê phân tích cấu chuyển dịch cấu kinh tế Việt Nam giai đoạn 1986-2012. .. tiêu lựa chọn hệ phương pháp thống kê phân tích cấu kinh tế chuyển dịch cấu kinh tế Việt Nam Chương 3: Phân tích cấu kinh tế chuyển dịch cấu kinh tế Việt Nam giai đoạn 1986-2012 Footer Page 24 of