GVHD: TS HAY SINH MSSV: 31091022896 – K35 GVHD: TS HAY SINH MSSV: 31091022896 – K35 CTCP DCF DDT EBIT FCFF GVHB LNST M&A PHT R&D ROA ROE ROC RIR SX&TM TLH WACC WTO Mergers and Acquisitions – 2008-2011) -2011) -2016) TRANG 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 31 32 33 33 (2012-2016) -2011) 3.14 -2011) -2016) 35 36 37 37 (2012-2016) 41 1.1 1.1.1 1.1.1.1 1.1.1.2 1.1.2 1.2 1.2.1 1.2.2 10 13 2.1 13 2.1.1 13 2.1.2 13 2.1.2.1 13 2.1.2.2 14 2.1.3 15 1.3.1 15 1.3.2 18 2.1.4 19 2.1.5 20 2.2 22 2.2.1 22 2.2.2 23 2.2.3 23 25 Lên 2007 243.972 111.166 16.234 6.069 66.188 149.984 11.565 15.112 14.828 8.371 27.043 (18.672) 259.084 39.693 51.570 13.835 166.303 14.061 14.061 25.988 (11.927) 277.469 211.199 211.199 120.395 77.780 49.215 49.215 7.176 31.965 816.850 816.677 454.197 280.870 174 47.885 Nguyên giá 2008 2009 228.254 2010 2011 1.377.130 1.417.370 1.135.173 29.111 27.315 76.552 105.180 201.702 55.520 673.184 110.041 150.805 558.896 1.029.612 807.929 10.759 48.700 44.366 210.980 356.153 365.356 160.972 196.865 171.024 85.237 78.475 74.573 140.678 143.665 149.526 (55.441) (65.190) (74.953) 1.588.110 1.773.523 1.500.529 259.084 277.469 760.131 748.763 740.133 419.452 134.416 8.631 8.457 736.393 11.129 bán 958.598 942.718 652.763 55.400 15.879 15.706 802.450 12.475 15.373 1.588.110 1.773.523 1.500.529 http://www.stockbiz.vn/Stocks/PHT/FinancialStatements.aspx Chi phí tài Chi phí bán hàng doanh 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1.059.398 1.250.495 2.342.763 3.001.449 2.961.861 1.024.648 1.198.045 2.081.078 2.741.076 2.673.862 34.750 52.450 261.685 260.373 287.999 82 237 28.956 26.720 22.078 7.941 10.416 93.248 173.803 222.962 7.302 9.710 19.979 75.694 74.913 8.514 12.226 19.427 21.363 24.799 2.636 2.754 11.262 17.449 29.920 15.742 27.291 166.705 74.478 32.396 16.413 31.317 170.380 73.533 36.437 11.328 22.671 135.704 55.970 25.317 cho hai công ty PHT TLH WACC = E D+ E Re + D D+E Rd(1 – Tc) : Ngày 31/12/2011, ta có: Chi phí lãi vay (Rd) = 28.139/220.592,5 = 12,76% RePHT = ReUS US = 0,22% (1 Year T-Bond, ngày 20/03/2012) Date 1Mo 3Mo 6Mo 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 5Yr 20/06/12 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.22 0.41 0.62 1.22 http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interestrates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2012 -2011) Year 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 Annual Returns on Investments in 10-year S&P 500 T Bond 43,81% 0,84% -8,30% 4,20% -25,12% 4,54% -43,84% -2,56% -8,64% 8,79% 49,98% 1,86% -1,19% 7,96% 46,74% 4,47% 31,94% 5,02% -35,34% 1,38% 29,28% 4,21% -1,10% 4,41% -10,67% 5,40% -12,77% -2,02% 19,17% 2,29% 25,06% 2,49% 19,03% 2,58% 35,82% 3,80% -8,43% 3,13% 5,20% 0,92% 5,70% 1,95% 18,30% 4,66% 30,81% 0,43% 23,68% -0,30% 18,15% 2,27% -1,21% 4,14% 52,56% 3,29% 32,60% -1,34% 7,44% -2,26% Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Annual Returns on Investments in 10-year S&P 500 T Bond -10,46% 6,80% 43,72% -2,10% 12,06% -2,65% 0,34% 11,64% 26,64% 2,06% -8,81% 5,69% 22,61% 1,68% 16,42% 3,73% 12,40% 0,72% -9,97% 2,91% 23,80% -1,58% 10,81% 3,27% -8,24% -5,01% 3,56% 16,75% 14,22% 9,79% 18,76% 2,82% -14,31% 3,66% -25,90% 1,99% 37,00% 3,61% 23,83% 15,98% -6,98% 1,29% 6,51% -0,78% 18,52% 0,67% 31,74% -2,99% -4,70% 8,20% 20,42% 32,81% 22,34% 3,20% 6,15% 13,73% 31,24% 25,71% Year 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ - -2011 = 5,41% - 5,41% = 5,8% Annual Returns on Investments in 10-year S&P 500 T Bond 18,49% 24,28% 5,81% -4,96% 16,54% 8,22% 31,48% 17,69% -3,06% 6,24% 30,23% 15,00% 7,49% 9,36% 9,97% 14,21% 1,33% -8,04% 37,20% 23,48% 22,68% 1,43% 33,10% 9,94% 28,34% 14,92% 20,89% -8,25% -9,03% 16,66% -11,85% 5,57% -21,97% 15,12% 28,36% 0,38% 10,74% 4,49% 4,83% 2,87% 15,61% 1,96% 5,48% 10,21% -36,55% 20,10% 25,94% -11,12% 14,82% 8,46% 2,07% 16,04% tính: US L US U US U = 1+ US L D US 1-T x E US T Ngành D/E Thép 32 1,68 21,03% 86,57% : http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ US U = PHT = L PHT L 1,68 1+ 1-21,03% x 86,57% PHT x U = 0,99 (1 + (1 – TcVN) x (D/E)PHT) = 0,99 x (1 + (1 – 25%) x 180.206 303.813 ) = 1,44 COUNTRY DEFAULT SPREADS AND RICK PREMIUMS (update March, 2012) Local Currency Country Total risk Premiun Rating Viet Nam B1 12,00% Country RiskPremium 6,00% – - 2% = 7,5% idv.com.vn) Chi ph WACC = % + 1,44 x 5,8% + 6% +7,5% = 22,07% 303.813 x 22,07% + 180.206+303.813 180.206 x 18% x (1 – 25%) = 18,88% 180.206+303.813 % (D/V) Beta beta bình quân 1,08 ( Re)= 0,22% + 1,08 x 5,8% + 6% +7,5% = 19,98% WACC = 53,6% x 19,98% + 46,4% x 13% x (1 – 25%) = 15,24% Ngày 31/12/2011, ta có: g 548.189 Chi phí lãi vay (Rd) = 74.913 /548.189= 13,67% PHT L = 0,99 x (1 + (1 – 25%) x Chi phí 427.909 736.393 ) = 1,43 (Re) = 0,22% + 1,43 x 5,8% + 6% +7,5% = 22,01% Chi phí WACC = 736.393 x 22,07% + 427.909+736.393 427.909 x 18% x (1 – 25%) = 18,88% 427.909+736.393 (Re) = 0,22% + 1,08 x 5,8% + 6% +7,5% = 19,98% WACC = 53,6% x 19,98% + 46,4% x 13% x (1 – 25%) = 15,24% (2012-2016): Chi phí bán hàng lãi vay FCFF (WACC) PV NPV (2012-2016) 2012 1.440.000 1.362.400 3.474 41.877 1.407.751 2013 1.563.587 1.477.524 3.839 45.471 1.526.835 2014 1.840.445 1.737.022 4.863 49.088 1.790.972 2015 2.334.250 2.200.387 5.843 66.008 2.272.239 2016 3.173.528 2.987.877 7.245 88.892 3.084.014 169.936 273.598 330.553 411.848 549.580 25% 15.502,57 29.530,31 97.486 293.411 58.893 332.004 29.593,23 8.621,35 25% 39.559,67 32.999,54 86.421,97 333.994,87 58.819,61 361.597 14.184,84 6.819,03 25% 17.309,81 38.292,46 99.559,11 340.012,89 63.789,92 375.782 (10.245,05) 68.331,71 25% 50.033,23 48.915,52 113.821,19 397.186,37 145.470,53 365.537 129.529,36 (84.138,72) 25% 32.006,47 66.265,90 146.495,13 503.139,22 154.567,97 495.066 118.619,22 (17.223,92) 18,88% 18,88% 18,88% 18,88% 18,88% 7.252 3.368 4.825 40.671 (42.126) (7.254) -2029: 2016 44,35% 125,66% 89.515 25,00% 67.135,88 84.359,80 EBIT EBIT(1-Tc) FCFF WACC PV EBIT EBIT(1-Tc) FCFF WACC PV -2018 -2028 thúc 13 2024 23,43% 78,60% 987.371 25,00% 740.528,56 582.033,87 158.494,69 18,88% 16.733,03 (19.503,85) 135.537,98 8.902.087,40 470.553,05 2017 2018 44,35% 44,35% 125,66% 125,66% 129.216 186.527 25,00% 25,00% 96.912,20 139.895,02 121.775,33 175.785,52 (24.863,12) (35.890,50) 18,88% 18,88% (8.808,28) (10.695,57) 14 2025 19,95% 70,75% 1.184.315 25,00% 888.236,61 628.463,37 259.773,23 18,88% 23.069,78 2019 40,87% 117,81% 262.752 25,00% 197,064.17 232.165,77 (35.101,60) 18,88% (8.799,15) 15 2026 16,46% 62,91% 1.379.251 25,00% 1.034.437,91 650.775,37 383.662,54 18,88% 28.660,76 2020 37,38% 109,97% 360.967 25,00% 270.725,13 297.714,34 (26.989,22) 18,88% (5.691,06) 16 2027 12,97% 55,07% 1.558.183 25,00% 1.168.637,08 643.544,80 525.092,29 18,88% 32.996,14 : 589.955,55 10 2021 33,89% 102,13% 483.308 25,00% 362.480,91 370.187,96 (7.707,06) 18,88% (1.367,04) 17 2028 9,49% 47,22% 1.706.001 25,00% 1.279.500,72 604.243,45 675.257,27 18,88% 35.693,24 11 12 2022 2023 30,41% 26,92% 94,28% 86,44% 630.263 799.926 25,00% 25,00% 472.696,94 599.944,35 445.673,61 518.592,64 27.023,33 81.351,72 18,88% 18,88% 4.032,00 10.210,27 18 2029 6,00% 39,38% 1.808.361 25,00% 1.356.270,76 534.125,24 822.145,52 15,24% -2016): Chi phí bán hàng lãi vay FCFF (WACC) PV NPV (2012-2016) 2012 2.891.262 2.690.064 22.393 51.684 2.764.141 2013 3.042.800 2.815.530 24.522 43.837 2.883.888 2014 3.434.289 3.160.253 27.138 55.434 3.242.825 2015 4.138.007 3.786.702 33.023 63.204 3.882.930 2016 5.301.440 4.824.310 42.100 83.273 4.949.684 127.121 158.912 191.464 255.077 351.756 25% 4.299,32 68.128,11 126.605,83 911.637,63 135.230,48 903.012,99 571.008,99 (411.839,54) 25% 52.669,88 74.350,06 144.083,81 902.445,88 141.537,68 904.992,00 1.979,02 138.884,88 25% 4.262,28 82.419,85 156.503,14 1.041.959,27 216.419,51 982.042,89 77.050,89 144.704,83 25% 39.907,97 100.209,81 192.258,28 1.231.117,41 233.287,43 1.190.088,25 208.045,36 43.564,28 25% 67.706,49 127.807,18 243.951,89 1.579.535,90 313.794,17 1.509.693,62 319.605,36 4.312,25 18,88% 18,88% 18,88% 18,88% 18,88% (346.419) (138.409) 98.266 86.120 21.808 1.816 -2029: 2016 37,90% 98,37% 351.756 25,00% 263.816,92 259.504,67 EBIT EBIT(1-Tc) FCFF WACC PV 18,88% EBIT EBIT(1-Tc) FCFF WACC PV -2018 -2028 2017 37,90% 98,37% 485.078 25,00% 363.808,30 357.861,63 5.946,66 18,88% 2.106,27 13 2024 20,50% 66,19% 2.894.749 25,00% 2.171.061,61 1.437.082,17 733.979,44 18,88% 77.452,75 4.549,45 656.320,77 24.806.763,89 1.310.437,34 2018 37,90% 98,37% 668.931 25,00% 501.698,21 493.497,66 8.200,56 18,88% 2.443,19 14 2025 17,60% 60,83% 3.404.244 25,00% 2.553.182,72 1.553.112,85 1.000.069,86 18,88% 88.768,03 2019 35,00% 93,00% 903.068 25,00% 677.300,83 629.912,12 47.388,70 18,88% 11.875,76 15 2026 14,70% 55,47% 3.904.684 25,00% 2.928.513,15 1.624.397,13 1.304.116,03 18,88% 97.367,89 2020 32,10% 87,64% 1.192.966 25,00% 894.724,40 784.146,85 110.577,55 18,88% 23.309,16 16 2027 11,80% 50,11% 4.365.450 25,00% 3.274.087,32 1.640.520,19 1.633.567,14 18,88% 102.591,13 : 1.832.898,93 10 2021 29,20% 82,28% 1.541.328 25,00% 1.155.995,68 951.141,93 204.853,75 18,88% 36.322,60 17 2028 8,90% 44,74% 4.753.982 25,00% 3.565.486,47 1.595.342,81 1.970.143,66 18,88% 104.074,43 11 2022 26,30% 76,92% 1.946.714 25,00% 1.460.035,83 1.123.014,03 337.021,80 18,88% 50.264,84 18 2029 6,00% 39,38% 5.039.221 25,00% 3.779.415,66 1.488.405,83 2.291.009,83 15,24% 12 2023 23,40% 71,55% 2.402.265 25,00% 1.801.698,60 1.289.200,78 512.497,82 18,88% 64.294,18 công ty : D [1+ 1-Tc x E ] PHT beta D/E Tc TLH 1,44 0,5931 25,00% 0,996660495 589.955,55 1,43 0,5811 25,00% 0,995943099 1.832.898,93 Beta khô 589.955,55 x 0,997 + 589.955,55+1.832.898,93 1.832.898,93 589.955,55+1.832.8982,93 x 0,996 = 1,00 040 1,00 x [1 + (1-25%) x 0,58] = 1,43 Chi phí Chi phí WACC = % + 1,43 x 5,8% + 6% +7,5% = 22,03% 1.040.206 608.115+1.040.206 x 22,07% + 608.115 608.115+1.040.206 x 18% x (1 – 25%) = 18,88% (Re) = 0,22% + 1,08 x 5,8% + 6% +7,5% = 19,98% WACC = 53,6% x 19,98% + 46,4% x 13% x (1 – 25%) = 15,24% -2016): Chi phí bán hàng lãi vay FCFF (WACC) PV NPV (2012-2016) 2012 4.345.323 4.009.300 26.950 34.640 4.070.890 2013 4.866.762 4.482.057 24.607 33.930 4.540.594 2014 5.759.002 5.293.876 30.526 37.723 5.362.125 2015 7.179.556 6.587.368 37.621 40.433 6.665.422 2016 9.405.218 8.613.299 45.911 56.270 8.715.480 274.433 326.168 396.877 514.133 689.738 25% 12.044,62 98.089,18 213.857,68 1.229.891,40 58.474,96 1.385.274 94.536,12 197.333,21 25% 79.509,79 97.802,38 574.983,83 1.298.689,79 52.707,58 1.820.966 435.691,91 (172.773,48) 25% 7.418,61 122.866,84 481.915,12 1.578.932,30 132.014,29 1.928.833 107.867,10 305.238,66 25% 70.106,87 148.727,12 724.508,22 1.936.717,32 208.058,41 2.453.167 524.334,00 (60.113,69) 25% 19.092,75 197.745,23 868.068,71 2.550.660,82 243.418,80 3.175.311 722.143,60 (26.187,82) 18,88% 18,88% 18,88% 18,88% 18,88% 165.989 184.287 (122.246) 181.667 (30.095) (11.028) -2029: 2016 34,16% 105,06% 689.738 25,00% 517.303,29 543.491,12 EBIT EBIT(1-Tc) FCFF WACC PV 18,88% EBIT EBIT(1-Tc) FCFF WACC PV -2018 -2028 2017 34,16% 105,06% 925.320 25,00% 693.990,30 729.122,68 (35.132,38) 18,88% (12.445) 13 2024 18,80% 89,70% 4.762.895 25,00% 3.572.170,95 3.204.411,75 367.759,20 18,88% 38.814 (26.488) 311.621 39.615.879,67 2.093.175,78 2018 34,16% 105,06% 1.241.367 25,00% 931.025,46 978.157,45 (47.131,98) 18,88% (14.043) 14 2025 16,24% 87,15% 5.536.309 25,00% 4.152.231,76 3.618.474,85 533.756,91 18,88% 47.385 2019 31,60% 102,50% 1.633.587 25,00% 1.225.190,58 1.255.854,54 (30.663,96) 18,88% (7.685) 15 2026 13,68% 84,59% 6.293.607 25,00% 4.720.204,97 3.992.619,30 727.585,67 18,88% 54.333 2020 29,04% 99,94% 2.107.920 25,00% 1.580.939,81 1.580.041,98 897,82 18,88% 189 16 2027 11,12% 82,03% 6.993.403 25,00% 5.245.052,29 4.302.313,77 942.738,52 18,88% 59.217 : 2.562.595,93 10 2021 26,48% 97,38% 2.666.026 25,00% 1.999.519,78 1.947.204,90 52.314,88 18,88% 9.277 17 2028 8,56% 79,47% 7.592.009 25,00% 5.694.006,83 4.524.831,07 1.169.175,76 18,88% 61.775 11 2022 23,92% 94,82% 3.303.662 25,00% 2.477.746,37 2.349.499,36 128.247,01 18,88% 19.130 18 2029 6,00% 39,38% 8.047.530 25,00% 6.035.647,24 2.376.952,78 3.658.694,46 15,24% 12 2023 21,36% 92,26% 4.009.241 25,00% 3.006.930,83 2.774.328,62 232.602,21 18,88% 29.185 January – 11 February – 11 March – 11 April – 11 May – 11 June – 11 July – 11 August – 11 Septemper – 11 October - 11 (%) 15,30 16,42 16,42 17,20 19,00 19,20 19,80 20,00 19,00 19,50 Bình quân (%) 18,18 ... chung bán, sáp nh (PHT) vào công ty ên (TLH) “ I mua bán, (M&A) tài am” ) II doan III CTCP : (M&A) 1.1 1.1.1 1.1.1.1 doanh Lu , L 1.1.1.2 Mua bán ua 2004 C Tranh M – Horizontal Merger): (Vertical... 2.1.5 - giá 20 hà phân i chi khơng thích 21 q n v 2.2 2.2.1 V E = VA – V D VE VA VD 22 (2 .1) , công nhân viên 2.2.2 (FCFF) WACC = Re = Rf + E D+ E xRe + D D+E x Rd x (1 – Tc) (2 .2) x (Rm – Rf) (2 .3)... tham dòng sáp dòng cho g hành cô xu so 15 (và doanh thu) thu Công ty sau Công nh ua bán, sáp 16 .Smith v N mơ hình pay-off method) 17 “Valuing M&A Synergies as (Fuzzy) Real Option”(Jani Kinnunen,