58 Phat trien cac du an khau ha nguon nganh Dau khi Viet Nam truoc nhung co hoi va thad i j j i u^ PHAT TRIEN CAC DU AN KHAU HA NGUON NGANH DA U KHI VIET NAM TRUOC NHUNG CO HOI VA THACH THUC Truang Di[.]
58 Phat trien cac du an khau nguon nganh Dau Viet Nam truoc nhung co hoi va t h a d i j j i u ^ PHAT TRIEN CAC DU AN KHAU HA NGUON NGANH D A U KHI VIET NAM TRUOC NHUNG CO HOI VA THACH THUC Truang Dinh Hgi TT Nghiin ciru vd Phdt trien Chi Men Ddu TOM TAT Qua 30 ndm Ngdnh Ddu Viet Nam da co nhimg bir&c phdt trien mgnh me, nhdt Id khdu thuang nguon (tim kiem, thdm dd, khai thde) Tinh den dd khai thac vd xudt khdu duac gdn 180 trieu tdn ddu tho, gdn 20 ty m^ khi, dua Viet Nam vdo danh sdch cdc nu&c sdn xudt ddu ciia the gi&i vd dimg hdng thir & Dong Nam A Ddy Id thdnh cong ciia Tong cong ty Ddu Viet Nam rdt ddng duac Nhd nu&c ghi nhdn Tuy nhien, khdu hg nguon (che bien vd kinh doanh phdn phoi sdn phdm loc hoa ddu) chua phdt trien tuong xung, chua ddp irng chrac su mong moi ciia nhdn ddn vd yeu cdu ciia ddt nu&c Tren ca s& khdi qudt thirc trgng cdc du dn khdu hg nguon thai gian qua, tdc gid phdn tich mot cdch khoa hoc nhimg dieu kien rdng buoc de mot du dn loc hoa ddu dam bdo thiA'c hien duac vd nhirng yeu to m&i chi phoi den sir thdnh cong ciia du dn Ba dieu kien rdng buoc de du dn co the thuc thi gom; - Co thi truong tieu thu sdn phdm - Co nguon nguyen lieu de sdn xudt sdn phdm - Co nguon tdi chinh vd nhdn luc de thuc hien du dn Ba yeu to chi phoi du dn; - Sir thay doi ve ca cdu nhu cdu cdc sdn phdm loc ddu - Su todn cdu hoa vd tir hoa khdu phdn phoi vd che bien ngdnh loc hoa ddu tgo su cgnh tranh gay gat - Nhimg quy dinh tieu chudn ve moi truang cua the gi&i ngdy cdng khat khe Dong th&i tdc gid chi nguyen nhdn su phdt trien khong tuong xirng doi v&i cdc du dn thuoc khdu hg nguon ciia Ngdnh Ddu th&i gian qua nhdm khdc phuc nhung thieu sot, hieu rd nhimg ca hoi thudn lgi vd tru&c nhimg kho khdn thdch thirc trien khai phdt trien cdc du dn thuoc khdu hg nguon cua Ngdnh Ddu & Viet Nam thai gian t&i TINH HINH TRIEN KHAI CAC DU AN KHAU HA NGUON TU TRUOC TOI NAY VA NHUNG BAI HOC KINH NGHIEM Qua 30 nam Nganh Ddu Viet Nam da cd nhung bude phat trien manh me nhdt lii khau thugng ngudn (lim kilm, tham dd, khai thac) Tinh den da khai thac va xuat khiiu dirge gdn 180 trieu ldn ddu thd, gdn 20 ly m^ dua Viet Nam viio danh sach cac nude Tuyen tap bao cao Hoi nghj KHCN "30 nam Dau Viet Nam: Co' hoi moi, thach thiic moi" 59^ san xuat dau ciia the gidi va dimg hang thu d Ddng Nam A Da}' la cdng cua Tdng cdng ly Dau Viet Nam rat dang dugc Nha nude ghi nhan Cung khoang thdi gian 30 nam, khau ngudn (che bien va kinh doanh phan phdi san pham Igc hda dau) chua phat trien luong ximg, chua dap irng dugc su mong mdi cua nhan dan va yeu cau cua dat nude Cho den chua cd mdt nha may lge ddu nao chi nhat cd nhii may dam Phu My mdi boat ddng nam 2004 dap irng khoang 30% nhu cdu nude, nhii may LPG Dinh Cd san xudt moi nam khoang 300.000 tdn LPG vii 150.000 tan condensat Tham gia thi irudng phan phdi san pham xang ddu nude mdi chi chiem khoang 15%o Van de cting thay rang hien ta xuat khdu khoang 20 trieu tan ddu thd hang nam nhung phai nhap khau gdn 100%o san phdm lge - hda ddu (khoang 12 trieu tan) la dieu rat vd ly Nd da, dang va se cdn tdn tai neu nhu chiing ta khdng hieu rd nguyen nhan, khdng phan tich mdl each khoa hgc de cd dugc nhimg bai hgc kinh nghiem ma ta da phai tra gia dat Q day chi ban den nhung nguyen nhan lam cho khau ngudn ciia nganh dau chua phat trien tuong ximg Chiing ta chua hieu va chua biet rang mudn phat triln cac du an thudc ITnh vuc khau ngudn nhu cac du an lge hda dau bj phu thudc vao dieu kien rang bude va ylu td chi phdi Ba dieu kien rang bude de dy an cd the thuc thi gdm: - Cd thj trudng tieu thu san pham - Cd ngudn nguyen lieu de san xuat san pham - Cd ngudn tai chinh va nhiin lire de thuc hien du an Ba yeu td chi phdi du an: - Sir thay ddi ve co cau nhu cau cac san pham lge dau - Su loan cau hda va tu hda khau phan phdi va che bien nganh Igc hda dau tao sir canh tranh gay gat - Nhung quy djnh tieu chuan ve mdi trudng ciia the gidi cang khat khe Trudc bet, ta phan tich ba dieu kien rang huge phat trien cac du an Igc hda dau: Tir nhieu nam qua, Nha nude va Tdng cdng ty Dau Viet Nam da cd ke hoach trien khai xay dung nha may lge hda dau, nhung tdi chua cd nha may nao boat ddng Mdt nhung nguyen nhan chinh la thieu mdt ba dieu kien rang bugc tren Ta cd the diem lai cac du an xay nha may lge dau da nghien ciru nhung chua trien khai dugc: Du an nha may lge dau tai Nui Dinh (Hoa Eu - Ninh Binh) (1972 - 1975) - Du an lge ddu Nghi San (TTnh Gia - Thanh Hda) ldn (1977 - 1979) - Du an lge ddu Tuy Ha (Eong Thanh - Ddng Nai) (1985 - 1989) - Du an lge ddu Eong Son (Tmh Ba Ria) (1993 - 1994) 60 Phat trien cac dy an khau ngudn nganh Ddu Viet Nam trudc nhung co hoi va thach Uiu£^ - Du an lge ddu Dung Qudt (Quang Ngai) (1998 - 2009) - Du an lge ddu Nghi San (TTnh Gia - Thanh Hda) ldn (2002 - v.v ) Du an lge dau Nui Dinh d Hoa Lu - Ninh Binh Ban Dau Tdng cue hda chat nghien cim kha thi, vdi quy md cdng suat 1,5 trieu tan/nam Dy an khdng dugc tiep tuc nghien cim vi: - Viet Nam liic chua phat hien dugc dau thd, - Khdng cd kha nang tai chinh dl thyc hien dy an ma chi phu thudc vao sy vien trg cua nude ngoai Nhu vay la dieu kien can thiet la chua cd Nam 1975, Tdng cyc Ddu Viet Nam lap da tiln hanh nghien ciiu dy an lge hda ddu tai Nghi son, huyen TTnh Gia, tinh Thanh Hda Dugc ngudn tai trg cua UNDP de nghien ciiu tiln kha thi va kha thi chi tiet Thdi gian phia Viet Nam chua cd lyc lugng nghien ciiu nen da hgp dong vdi BEICIP thudc Vien Dau md Phap (IFP) thyc hien nghien cim Bao cao tien kha thi va kha thi chi tiet da nghiem thu nam 1979 Van de quan trgng ma bao cao kha thi chi tiet chua xac dinh la hinh thirc dau tu va ke hoach thu xep tai chinh Ban chuan bi trien khai dy an da dugc Tdng cue Dau lap, da trien khai mdt sd cdng viec, nhung dy an da khdng thyc hien dugc va ban da giai tan Dy an cting khdng thyc hien dugc vi: - Viet Nam da phat hien dugc dau thd nhung san lugng khai thac chua dang ke - Trong hoan canh kinh te Viet Nam liic khdng thu xep dugc tai chinh de thyc hien dy an Tir nhting nam 1985 - 1989, vdi hiep dinh dugc ky gitra Chinh phu Lien Xd va Viet Nam, nha may Igc dau trieu tan/nam da dugc nghien cim kha thi, da hoan thiet ke chi tiet de chuan bj thi cdng, vdi vdn vay tir Lien Xd Dy an lai khdng thyc hien dugc tinh hinh bien ddng chinh tri d Lien Xd va Ddng Au Thyc sy liic Viet Nam da cd san lugng dau thd khai thac song chua dii de dap img cho nha may, ban nira cting khdng the ty lo dugc ngudn tai chinh can thiet, nhu vay dy an van thieu hai dieu kien can thilt Trudc tinh hinh nhu cau san pham Igc dau cang tang va ngudn dau thd md Bach Hd da khang dinh, san Iugng khai thac cang tang dan, Chinh phu chu truang keu ggi dau tu nude ngoai (nhting nam 1992 - 1993) Cd 18 cdng ty nuac ngoai da giri de nghi xin tham gia dy an Igc dau d mien Nam Qua xet chgn cd cdng ty dugc tien hanh nghien cim "tien kha thi" va da bao cao ket qua den Tdng cyc Dau Viet Nam Sau xem xet, dy an ciia Tap doan Total dugc lya chgn Qua dam phan vai cac ddi tac, hinh thiic dau tu cho dy an dugc xac dinh la lien doanh, dia diem lya chgn la ban dao Eong Son tinh Ba Ria Mdt lien doanh thyc hien dy an da lap gdm: PetroVietnam, Total, CPI, CIDC Mdt ban dilu hanh trien khai nghien cim kha thi chi tiet va mdt td dac nhiem da dugc lap, triln khai cdng viec khao sat, tinh toan chi tilt phuc vu nghien cim kha thi Tuyin tap bao cao Hoi nghj KHCN "30 nam Ddu Vict Nam: Co hoi mdi, thach thiic mdi' Cdng viec dang trien khai sudn se thi Chinh phii Viet Nam thay ddi \ i tri xa\ dung nhii may Igc ddu din Dung Quat tinh Quang Ngai la noi thyc hien dy an xa> dung nhii may Igc dau Vi nhtrng quyen Igi phia ddi lac khdng dugc dap img nen nam 1995 iiip doan Total gui cdng van riit khdi dy an Luc du an lge dau Eong Son - Ba Ria da hdi dii cac dieu kien rang bugc can thiet de thuc hien vi: • Ve thi tru&ng: Viet Nam luc na}' da lieu thu - trieu tan san pham diiu cac loai mil thj Irudng phia Nam (lir Binh Thuan tro vao) lieu thu khoang 60%o neu nha ma\ di viio boat ddng nam 1999 - 2000 thi san pham ciia nha may se lieu thu tai phia Nam Phiin thieu but gan khoang 40% se tiep luc nhap khau Nhu vay, van de thi trudng lieu thu san pham la rat tdt • Ve nguyen lieu ddu tho: nha may di vao boat ddng (1999 - 2000) Viet Nam da khai thac gan 15 trieu tan dau thd/nam • Ve tdi lire; van de cting da dugc giai quyet (do da xac dinh dugc hinh thiic dau lu, cd lien doanh vdi cac ddi tac nude ngoai dd cd ke hoach lai chinh rd rang, cd luc lugng de thyc hien dy an) Do phia Viet Nam thay ddi dia diem, ciic ddi Uic thay d Dung Quat each xa thi trirdng lieu thu chinh, ca sd lang chua cd, cdng nghiep dich vii kem vii thieu vang ciic ngiinh cdng nghiep hd trg se diin den hieu qua dau tu thap nen da riil khdi dir an Cho ldi dy an lge dau Dung Quiit mac dii da hdi dii dieu kien riing huge nhung van chua hien thyc ma phai tdi nam 2009 mdi cd kha nang di viio boat ddng, bi chiim lien nam Qudc hdi dii kiem diem, nhung co quan vii cac bd phiin lien quan da kiem diem va biic^ Clio trudc Qudc hdi ve nhung ly cham lien O day chi de cap ldi ba yeu Id chi phdi, cd anh hudng riit nhieu den vice thyc hien du an ma chimg ta chua hieu rd lam Sy thay doi ve co" can nhu cau san pham loc dau - Nhu ciiu cac san pham nhe cang tang (LPG, Napla, xang did, nhien lieu phan luc nhien lieu diezen) - Nhu cau nhien lieu ddt Id cdng nghiep (FO) giam manh san lugng du thira chat lugng ddi hdi phai nang cao va sy gia tang ngudn thien nhien va cac ngudn nang lugng khae, - Nhu cau cac san pham hda dau, cac san pham cao cap ngiiy cang cd nhu'ng yeu cau cao hon ca ve sd lugng va chiil lugng, - Tuong lai cac nha may lge dau dugc xay mdi phai theo hudng che bien sau va cd lich hgp \di hda dau Dy an lge dau Dung Quat da dira co cau san pham chua hgp ly gdm nhien lieu dic/en lit 2.08 trieu lan/niim (trong dd 1.3 trieu liin diezen cdng nghiep/nam) ihuc te nhu ciiu diezen cdng nghiep d la nil il nen chi nhap loai nhien lieu diezen cho d Id Nhu viiy 62 Phat trien cac du an khau nguon nganh Dau Viet Nam trudc nhung co hoi va thach thuc nlu nha may di vao boat ddng thi 1,33 trieu tan nhien lieu diezen cdng nghiep tieu thu nhu thi nao, neu xuat khau thi xuat thj trudng nao, hieu qua kinh te Dy an lge dau Dung Quat chi mdi dap img mdt phan nhu cau ve nhien lieu, cac san phdm hda ddu thyc ll chua dugc de cap nen hieu qua dau tu thap la dieu chac chan Su- toan cau hoa va tu hoa khau phan phoi va che bien nganh loc dau tao sy canh tranh cang gay gat - Lgi nhuan khau lge ddu giam dang kl, dac biet la nhirng nha may che bien ndng, nha may cd cdng nghe lac hau - Thj trudng cang md cho ty canh tranh (khi tham gia WTO) vay nhu cdu de dugc dap img, sy chenh lech gia giira cac thi truang se giam nhieu - Xu hudng cac nha may lge dau se mat dan sy bao hd ciia Chinh phii Cac ylu Id canh tranh thi cd nhilu, nhung bdi canh hdi nhap thi yeu td thuan lgi canh tranh la vdn dl chi phi van chuyen Lgi the nhat la gan ngudn nguyen lieu va gan noi tieu thy san pham Nhung quy djnh tieu chuan ve moi truong ciia the gioi cang khat khe, doi hoi chat lugng cac san pham loc dau phai thay doi - Ddi vdi xang dtd: yeu cdu tri sd detan cao (A92, A95, A98), khdng chi, aromat < 35%), benzen < 1%) - Vdi nhien lieu diezen (DO) luu huynh yeu cau < 0,05%o mdt sd nude chau Au cdn yeu cau nhien lieu DO sieu sach cd luu huynh < 0,01%o - Nhien lieu ddt Id cdng nghiep (FO) yeu cau luu huynh < \% (hien tir - 3%) Rd rang, yeu td da anh hudng manh den dy an Dung Quat rat Khi lam dy an (1998) chua dy bao diing ve chat Iugng san pham Theo thiet ke nha may san xuat 940.000 tan xang cd tri sd dc tan la A83 va cdn lai la loai xang A92 Tir nam 2000 tieu chuan Viet Nam (TCVN 6776-2000) chi cho phep sir dung cac loai xang A90, A92 va A95 Vi cd sy thay ddi ve ca cau san pham, ve tieu chuan chat Iugng ma thiet ke ban dau ciia dy an Dung Quat khdng cdn phii hgp, phai dieu chinh bd sung them hai phan xudng la izome hda de dam bao chat lugng xang, va phan xudng xir ly ECO bang hydro de tang san lugng va chat lugng cho nhien lieu diezen dtd Viec bd sung them hai phan xudng da phai tien hanh cac bude, qua nhieu thii tuc, ke til' de xuat tdi dugc Chinh phii phe duyet mat gan nam Dd chinh la mdt nhirng ly gdp phan cham tien (7 nam) ciia dy an PHUONG H U ^ N G PHAT TRIEN CAC D\f AN LOC HOA DAU, CHIEM LINH THI TRUING PHAN PHOI SAN P H A M TRONG THOI GIAN TOI CUNG NHUNG CO HOI VA THACH THUC D I nghien cim phat trien cac dy an khau ngudn, trudc bet, ta phai xet tdi ba dieu kien rang bude da neu phan tren 63 Tuyen tap bao cao Hoi nghj KHCN "30 nam Dau Viet Nam: Co hoi mdi, thach thuc mdi' Ve nhu cau thi trirong Viet Nam a Nhu cdu sdn phdm Ipc ddu Theo ket qua nghien ciru cho thay: Bang 1: Tieu thu nhien lieu nuoc tu- nam 1995 - 2005 Ndm 1995 7997 1998 7999 2000 2007 2002 2003 2004 Tdng cdng san pham loc dau (trieu tan) 4,89 6,23 6.95 7,56 8,63 9,38 10,67 9,94* 10.05* 4-2005 3,9*- Nguon; Tong cue Thong ke; (*); Chua ki: LPG vd nhua duang Bang 2: Dy bao nhu cau tieu thu san pham loc dau nam 2010 Don vi tinh; trieu tdn Du bdo ciia WB Du bdo ciia Vien Chien luge Bo Ke hogch-Ddu tu Dir bdo cua Tong cong ty Ddu VN LPG Xang td Jet A Dau hda DO FO 0,49 7,90 1,66 9,42 1,59 1,97 4,16 0,49 0,48 7,20 3,54 0,52 4,25 0,83 0,30 7,02 4,25 Cac nhien lieu trungbinh khae Cac nhien lieu khae Nhua dudng 1,01 - - 0,53 - - - 0,65 18,49 - Sdn phdm Ting - 22,60 17,42 Theo dy bao ciia Tdng cdng ty Dau Viet Nam ve nhu cau cac san pham xang dau d Viet Nam: Bang Ndm Nhu cau (trieu tan) 2005 11,2 2010 17,5- 18,0 2015 20,0-25,0 2020 32,7-36,5 Nhu vay, dieu kien rang bude sd ddi vdi cac dy an lge dau ve thi trudng la rat dam bao Khi ma d Viet Nam hien chua cd nha may lge dau nao Nha may Igc dau sd I Dung Quat cting phai tdi nam 2009 mdi cho khoang 6,6 trieu lan/nam b Nhu cdu sdn phdm hda ddu Nhu cau cac loai nhya den nam 2010 theo Chuang trinh phat trien nganh nhua Viet Nam: 64 Phat trien cac d y an khau nguon nganh Dau Viet Nam truoc nhung co hoi va thach thiic Bang Don vi linh; nghin ldn ndm Chung loai Ndm 2005 Ndm 2010 PE 600 1100 PP 650 1300 PVC 370 750 VMC 370 750 Nhua ky thuat 240 550 Cac loai khae 240 500 2.100 4.200 Tong Nguon; Vinaplast Nhu cau nhya ldn nhu vay, hien nhap khau gan 100%o Khi nha may lge dau Dung Quat boat ddng, neu san xuat PP cting chi cd the dat khoang 150.000 tan, dap irng mdl phan khdng dang ke so vdi nhu cau cua thi irudng c Nhu cdu vi xff soi hda hpc Nh XO sgi ldng hgp (Quyit dinh sd 55/2001/QD-TTg ngdy 23/4/2001 Phe duyet chien luge phdt trien ngdnh del may Viet Nam den ndm 2010) Theo du bao nam 2005: lieu thy xo polyeste: 120.000 tan, sgi cac loai: 300.000 tan Nam 2010: lieu thu xo polyeste: 200.000 tdn, sgi cac loai: 500.000 ldn Hien d Viet Nam mdi cd dy an ciia Hualong vdi 100%) vdn ciia Malaixia vdi ldng vdn la 403 trieu USD nhap nguyen lieu chinh la PTA (Axit Terephtalic sach) va EG (Etylen Glycol) de san xuat 250.000 tan xo, sgi/nam lai linh Ddng Nai Thyc te hien Hualong chi nhap sgi thd (POY) tir Malaixia vao de san xuat dugc 35.000 tan/nam sgi tinh Dy an ciia lap doan Formosa (Dai Loan) la du an ldn vdi tdng dau tu 420 trieu USD cho cdng nghiep det may va san xuat dien Theo thdng tin ban dau du an nhap xa, sgi ban pham de che bien tiep nhu keo sgi, nhugm, del phuc vu cho xuat khau Du an cdn giai doan tiep xuc vdi cac ddi tac Viet Nam Nhu vay hien nganh det may Viet Nam van cdn phai nhap 90%) xo sgi, nude chi dap img khoang 10% tir loai bdng vai Vdi mirc lang trudng dy bao cac san pham hda dau tang 10%)/nam giai doan 2001 - 2010 va khoang 5%o giai doan 2010 - 2020 thi nhu cau ve san pham hda dau la rat ldn (nam 2010: trieu tan, nam 2015 khoang 10 trieu tan va nam 2020 khoang tren 17 trieu lan v.v ) Nhu vay, Viet Nam la mdt thi trudng ldn ddi vdi cac san pham lge, hda dau, la thuan lgi ldn va la co hdi tdt cho phat trien cac du an Igc hda dau 65 Tuyin tap bao cao Hoi nghi KHCN "30 nam Ddu Viet Nam: Co hoi mdi, thach thiic mdi' v l nguon nguyen lieu dau - eiia Viet Nam Theo du bao so bd, khoang thdi gian tir 2006 - 2025 Viet Nam se khai thac khoang 15 - 20 trieu tan dau thd/nam va khoang - 15 ty m^ khi/nam Nhu vay ngudn dau thd va cting cd the dap img phan ldn ve mat nguyen lieu cho cac dy an lge hda dau d Viet Nam Ve kha nang tai chinh va cac nguon lyc de thyc hien cac dy an loc, hoa dau De kinh te Viet Nam tang trudng mdl each virng chac, van de phat trien cac dir an dau khi, hda dau tao san pham va nguyen lieu co ban dap irng phan ldn ve nhu cau nhien lieu, nguyen lieu cho nganh nhya, del va phan dam phye vy cho ndng nghiep, chiing ta deu thay la rat can thiet phat trien cac dy an lge, hda dau Bang 5: Nhirng dy an loc, hoa dau can phat trien TT Dir dn Yeu cdu von ddu tir du tinh (ty USD) Nha may loc dau Dung Quat (sd 1) Nha may loc, hda dau Nghi Son (sd 2) (cd PP, va polyeste) 3,0-3,5 Nha may loc, hda dau (sd 3) (cd PE, PP, PET) 3.5-4,0 2.7 Nha may Dam Phii My 0,5 Nha may Dam Ca Mau 0,7 Nha may san xuat Etylen/Polyetylen (500 - 600 ngan tan/nam tir condensat, va tir ddng hanh Viet Nam Nha may san xuat Polystyren (60 ngan tan/nam) Nha may xo sgi Polyeste d mien Nam 140.000 tan/nam Tong cong: 1,2- 1,3 0.03 0,18-0,2 11,81-12,93 Nhung dy an lge, hda dau neu tren deu rat quan trgng va can vdn dau lu rat ldn kha nang tai chinh cua ta rat ban che Vi kha nang tai chinh va trinh khoa hgc - cdng nghe ciia ta ban che nen tir nam 2002 Chinh phii da quyet dinh ban hanh Danh muc cac dy an qudc gia ggi vdn dau tu nude ngoai thdi ky 2001 - 2005 (Quyit dinh s6 62/2002/QD-TTg ngdy 17-5-2002) dd cd dy an lge, hda dau Nghi Son - Thanh Hda Chi rieng cac dy an khau sau (lge, hda dau) cting da can tdi 10 - 13 ty USD, ngoai ra, giai doan 2006 - 2025 Nganh Dau cdn can dau tu vao cac dy an khae cua cac khau nhu tim kiem tham dd dau d nude, phat trien cdng nghiep khi, tang trir van chuyen va kinh doanh cac san pham dau tim kiem tham dd dau d nude ngoai phat trien dich vu dau khi, v.v vdi nhu cau tdng sd vdn cho tat ca cac khau rat ldn (khoang 35 - 45 ly USD) That la mdt sd dang kinh sg de cd the giai quyet dugc cai ma ta can 66 Phat trien cac dy an khau nguon nganh Ddu Viet Nam trudc nhung co' hoi v^ thach_thu;£^ Trd lai van de nhu cau va su can thiet phat trien cac du an khau ngudn nhu Igc, hda dau Viec Tdng cdng ty Dau Viet Nam phai lam la xac dinh bude di cho thich hgp: dy an nao thyc hien trudc, dy an nao sau, thir ty uu tien cho timg dy an va cac bude tien hanh ddi vdi mdi dy an Tdm lai la phai cd mdt quy hoach thyc hien rdt cu the, khoa hgc va mang tinh kha thi Khi cac du an ta khdng cd kha nang thu xep tai chinh de dau tu thi can keu ggi dau tu tryc tiep tir nude ngoai Tdng cdng ty Dau Viet Nam phai cd chien luge van ddng thu hilt dau tu ciia cac tap doan dau va tai chinh ldn cua the gidi Yeu td quan trgng de ggi dugc vdn cho dau tu la hieu qua kinh te cua dy an Nha dau tu chi dau tu vao cac dy an cd hieu qua kinh te cao cho dii dy an cd quy md dau tu rat ldn Vay hien chiing ta dang d dau va nen di nhu the nao de cd the cd cdng nghiep Igc, hda dau phat trien nhu mong mudn Thyc sy hien ta mdi chi cd nha may san xuat hda ldng (EPG) Dinh Cd san xuat khoang 300.000 tan/nam, nha may dam Phu My da di vao san xuat cho 80.000 tan ure/nam dap ling khoang 30%o nhu cau Hau nhu toan bd san pham lge dau va hda dau van dang phai nhap khau hang nam ta khai thac va xuat khau khoang 20 trieu tan dau thd Nha may lge dau Dung Quat mdi ky dugc hgp ddng EPC, kl hoach nam 2009 se dua nha may vao boat ddng Sy mong mudn va kha nang ludn mau thuan Du dinh ke hoach phat triln cac du an lge, hda dau ma Nganh Dau da dat khdng the thyc hien dugc nlu nhu khdng cd su dau tu tryc tiep ciia nude ngoai De thu hiit dau tu, neu chi cd Tdng cdng ty Ddu Viet Nam se khdng thi lam ndi Vdi cac dy an lge, hda dau cd quy md dau tu nhilu ty USD, thdi gian thu hdi vdn rdt dai, dd can cac nha dau tu cd ngudn tai chinh ldn Nha dau tu chi quyet dinh ddu tu cd sy dam bao ciia Chinh phii ve cac chinh sach cu the va ban than dy an cd hieu qua kinh tl rd rang va it rui ro nhat Nha may lge dau sd Dung Quat Viet Nam ty ddu tu Nha may sd 2, sd ta khdng cd kha nang ty dau tu vi khdng cd kha nang tai chinh Mudn cd dugc nha may sd 2, sd nhu da de chien luge phat trien cdng nghiep ddu thi khdng cdn each nao khae la phai keu ggi dau tu true tiep nude ngoai De keu ggi ddu tu, viec trudc tien cdn lam la: • Xac djnh muc tieu dy an: • San xuat san pham gi? (co cau, chiing loai san pham) • Quy md cdng suat • UTdc tdng vdn dau tu • Dia diem du kien • Xac dinh cac dieu kien thyc hien dy an: - Xac dinh hinh thirc dau tu: ty le lien doanh giiia cac nha dau tu vdi nude chii nha Tuyen tap bao cao Hoi nghj KHCN "30 nam Dau Viet Nam: Co hoi mdi, thach thiic mdi" 67 Nhimg uu dai, hd trg ciia Chinh phii (gia thue dat, giam thul, v.v ) - Nhimg uu dai va chinh sach phan phdi, tieu thu san pham, v.v Chi nao nhimg van de neu tren dugc xac dinh thi mdi cd thi mdi dugc cac nha dau tu den de thao luan Qua tiep xiic, thao luan va cd nhtrng tuong dong vl lgi ich mdi cd the ky nhting van ban de ciing nghien ciiu tinh kha thi chi tilt ciia dy an Nhu vay, dii nha may Nghi Son da dugc Tdng cdng ty Ddu Viet Nam trinh Chinh phii bao cao kha thi tir thang 7-2004 nhung cac vdn de quan trgng nhu hinh thirc dau lu kha nang thu xep tai chinh cdn chua dugc xac dinh thi dy an chua thyc hien dugc (Du an Igc, hda ddu Nghi Son da thyc hien nghien ciiu kha thi ldn thu nhdt tir nam 1978 va cung vi khdng xac djnh dugc hinh thirc ddu tu nen khdng triln khai thyc hien dugc) Khi keu ggi dugc nha ddu tu, hinh thiic ddu tu dugc xac djnh, nlu lien doanh thi ty le tham gia lien doanh giiia cac ben da xac dinh chde chdn, dd lien doanh se phai nghien cim kha thi lai (lya chgn tdi uu vl cdng nghe, nguyen lieu, co cdu san phdm; khao sat ky dia diem, xac dinh tien trinh thyc hien dy an, v.v ) Van de quan trgng la cac dy an chi kha thi qua tinh loan cho thdy cd hieu qua kinh te cao va cd cac nha dau tu nude ngoai tham gia Vdi tinh hinh canh tranh gay gdt cdng nghiep lge - hda dau hien thi cac du an ldn cd tich hgp vdi hda ddu mdi mang lai hieu qua kinh te Nhu vay, keu ggi dau tu nha may Igc, hda ddu sd phai xac dinh nha may cd quy md cdng sudt ldn, cd tich hgp vdi hda ddu, sir dyng nguyen lieu da dang (ddu chua, dau nggt, ket hgp vdi sir dung ca condensat, cac loai tai nguyen ciia ta, v.v ) Cac san pham ngoai nhien lieu can phai cd cac nguyen lieu co ban cho hda ddu nhu etylen, propylen de san xudt chat deo polyetylen (PE), polypropylen (PP) nguyen lieu ca ban cua ngiinh nhya, san xuat benzen, xylen, toluen (BTX), dac biet la paraxylen dl san xudt xo, sgi tdng hgp - nguyen lieu co ban cua nganh del may Vdi sy tien bd ciia cdng nghe mdi thi nhiing muc tieu san pham nhu vay hoan loan cd the dap img va cd hieu qua kinh te cao nhung vdn ddu tu cting rdt la ldn Mac dii vdn dau tu ldn nhung ddi vdi cac nha dau tu dilu quan trgng la vdn dl thj trudng va lgi nhuan Cd thi trudng, dac biet la gdn thi trudng tieu thy, mdt ylu td thuan lgi canh tranh vi giam phi van chuyen la dieu nha ddu tu ludn quan tam Thj trudng cting la yeu td tang hieu qua ciia dy an Nhu vay, lien doanh khdng the chi theo y chii quan ciia phia ta ma phai dam bao ca hai phia nha dhu tu va nude chii nha ciing cd lgi thi dy an mdi thyc hien dugc VAN DE PHAT TRIEN KHAU KINH DOANH CAC SAN P H A M DAU KHI Trong cac boat ddng ciia cac tap doan, cac tdng cdng ty d^u thi khau phan phdi, kinh doanh cd vai trd rat quan trgng, dam bao gia tri gia tang cao nhat, ddng gdp Idn vao lgi nhuan ciia ldng cdng ty 68 Phat trien cac du an khau nguon nganh Dau Viet Nam trudc nhung co hoi va thach thiic Ci Viet Nam hien chua md cira thi trudng ve san pham dau Tham gia thi trudng chi cd mdt sd it vien gdm Petrolymex, Petee, PetroVietnam, Saigonpetro V.V PetroVietnam mdi tham gia dugc khoang \5% thj phan.Vdi lgi the va tiem lyc ciia Tdng cdng ty Dau Viet Nam ma tren 10 nam tham gia kinh doanh dau khi, mdi chiem dugc khoang 15%o thi phan la chua tuong ximg Cdng ty Petee lap sau Petro Vietnam nhung cting chiem dugc thi phan tuong tu Khi nha may lge dau Dung Quat di vao boat ddng, neu PetroVietnam bao ludn viec tieu thu san pham cua nha may cung mdi chiem ITnh dugc khoang 40%) thi phan Van de mudn bao tieu, phan phdi dugc loan bd san pham ciia nha may can cd nhiing ke hoach dau tu, phat trien mang ludi phan phdi vdi mdt quy hoach rat chi tiet, cu the Phai cy the ke hoach xay dyng he thdng cang tiep nhan, cac tdng kho cd dii sire chua, phai cd he thdng cac kho trung chuyen Phai cd ke hoach xay dyng cac ddi tau, cac phuong tien chuyen dyng van chuyen san pham dau Phai xay dung dugc sach luge, thuang hieu va van hda canh tranh Vdi ke hoach trien khai, chinh sach va co che boat ddng kinh doanh nhu hien thi khd ma dam bao dugc muc tieu ve chiem ITnh thi phan kinh doanh san pham xang dau Trudc mat la canh tranh vdi cac cdng ty nude va Viet Nam gia nhap vao WTO thi phai canh tranh vdi cac cdng ty nude ngoai Thyc te canh tranh, ke hoach chiem ITnh thj phan phan phdi la mdt bd mdn khoa hgc phai nghien ciru khdng the chu quan va tiiy tien dugc KET LUAN Viec phat trien nhimg dy an thudc khau ngudn ciia Nganh Dau dang dimg trudc nhung co hdi (thuan lgi) va thach thirc (khd khan): Co' hoi - Viet Nam la mdt thi trudng tieu thy cd tiem nang ldn d khu vyc - Viet Nam cd ngudn nguyen lieu la tai nguyen dau - Nha nude da cd chinh sach ddi mdi va chu ddng hdi nhap kinh te qudc le da cd nhting chinh sach cu the viec md cira, keu ggi dau tu nude ngoai dd cd CO hdi tiep can vdi khoa hgc cdng nghe hien dai ciia the gidi va van de vdn ldn cho phat trien cac dy an khau ngudn se dugc giai quyet Thach thirc - Gia nguyen lieu dau thd va bien ddng khdn ludng, chieu hudng tang lien tuc, ngudn cung khdng du cau - Van de tai chinh ludn la thach thirc to ldn ddi vdi viec dau tu phat trien cac dy an loc hda dau Tuyen tap bao cao Hoi nghi KHCN "30 nam Dau Viet Nam: Co hdi mdi, thach thiic mdi" 69 - Do loan cau hda nen se khdng cdn dugc sy bao hd ciia Nha nude, phai chap nhan su canh tranh rat gay gat - Yeu cau ve mdi trudng cang khat khe ddi hdi chat lugng cac san pham phai dap img theo chuan muc ciia the gidi nen phai dau tu edngg nghe cao, can nhieu vdn - Kinh nghiem quan ly va trinh khoa hgc - cdng nghe ciia ta cdn han che TAI LIEU THAM KHAO RDCPP, 1999 Bdo cdo ket qud nhiem vu nghien ciru quy hogch phdt trien loc hoa ddu den ndm 2010 vd dinh hu&ng den ndm 2020 cua Ngdnh Ddu Viet Nam RDCPP, 2001 Bdo cdo nghien ciru tien khd thi dir dn xdy dung nhd mdy sdn xudt xa, sgi polyester & Viet Nam RDCPP, 2002 Nghien ciru khd ndng sdn xudt etylen/polyetylen tir cdc ngudn tdi nguyen ddu Viet Nam Quylt djnh so 55/2001/QD-TTg 23/4/2001 Phe duyet chiln luge phat triln nganh det may Viet Nam den nam 2010 Tieu thu nhien lieu nude lir 1995 - 2005, Tdng cue Thdng ke Viet Nam Nhu cau san pham nhya Cdng ty Nhya Viet Nam, 2004 ... Etylen/Polyetylen (500 - 600 ngan tan /nam tir condensat, va tir ddng hanh Viet Nam Nha may san xuat Polystyren (60 ngan tan /nam) Nha may xo sgi Polyeste d mien Nam 140.000 tan /nam Tong cong: 1,2- 1,3 0.03... KHCN "30 nam Dau Viet Nam: Co hoi mdi, thach thuc mdi'' Ve nhu cau thi trirong Viet Nam a Nhu cdu sdn phdm Ipc ddu Theo ket qua nghien ciru cho thay: Bang 1: Tieu thu nhien lieu nuoc tu- nam 1995... d Viet Nam hien chua cd nha may lge dau nao Nha may Igc dau sd I Dung Quat cting phai tdi nam 2009 mdi cho khoang 6,6 trieu lan /nam b Nhu cdu sdn phdm hda ddu Nhu cau cac loai nhya den nam 2010