Mối quan hệ giữa hiệu quả sử dụng nguồn lực của các ngân hàng thương mại và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại việt nam

BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƢỚC VIỆT NAM TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP HỒ CHÍ MINH NGUYỄN MINH SÁNG MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA HIỆU QUẢ SỬ DỤNG NGUỒN LỰC CỦA CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI VÀ TĂNG TRƢỞNG KINH TẾ TẠI VIỆT NAM LUẬN ÁN TIẾN SỸ KINH TẾ TP HỒ CHÍ MINH – NĂM 2015 BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƢỚC VIỆT NAM TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP HỒ CHÍ MINH NGUYỄN MINH SÁNG MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA HIỆU QUẢ SỬ DỤNG NGUỒN LỰC CỦA CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI VÀ TĂNG TRƢỞNG KINH TẾ TẠI VIỆT NAM LUẬN ÁN TIẾN SỸ KINH TẾ CHUYÊN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH - NGÂN HÀNG MÃ SỐ: 62 34 02 01 NGƢỜI HƢỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC PGS.,TS LÊ PHAN THỊ DIỆU THẢO TP HỒ CHÍ MINH – NĂM 2015 i LỜI CAM ĐOAN Tác giả cam đoan danh dự công trình khoa học mình, cụ thể: Tơi tên là: Nguyễn Minh Sáng Sinh ngày 30 tháng 10 năm 1986 – Tại: Lâm Đồng Quê quán: Hà Nội Hiện công tác tại: Khoa Kinh tế Quốc tế – Trƣờng Đại học Ngân hàng TP HCM 36 Tôn Thất Đạm, Quận 1, TP HCM Là nghiên cứu sinh khóa 17 Trƣờng Đại học Ngân hàng TP.HCM Mã số học viên: 010117120024 Cam đoan luận án: Mối quan hệ hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực ngân hàng thƣơng mại tăng trƣởng kinh tế Việt Nam Chuyên ngành: Tài – Ngân hàng; Mã số: 62 34 02 01 Ngƣời hƣớng dẫn khoa học: PGS.,TS Lê Phan Thị Diệu Thảo Luận án chƣa đƣợc trình nộp để lấy học vị tiến sỹ trƣờng đại học Luận án cơng trình nghiên cứu riêng tác giả, kết nghiên cứu trung thực, khơng có nội dung đƣợc công bố trƣớc nội dung ngƣời khác thực ngoại trừ trích dẫn đƣợc dẫn nguồn đầy đủ luận án Tơi xin hồn tồn chịu trách nhiệm lời cam đoan danh dự TP.HCM, ngày 02 tháng 07 năm 2015 Tác giả Nguyễn Minh Sáng ii LỜI CẢM ƠN Trƣớc hết, xin bày t cảm ơn đến Qu Thầy Cô Trƣờng Đại học Ngân hàng TP HCM Sự hƣớng dẫn nhiệt tình, tận tâm Qu Thầy Cơ gi p tơi hồn thiện khả tƣ kiến thức Đồng thời, c ng xin gửi lời cảm ơn sâu sắc đến PGS.TS Lê Phan Thị Diệu Thảo ngƣời tận tình hƣớng dẫn, ch bảo động viên suốt thời gian tơi hồn thành luận án ngày chập chững vào nghề Cuối c ng, gửi lời cảm ơn chân thành đến gia đình, ngƣời thân yêu, đồng nghiệp, bạn b sinh viên tơi Chính tình u góp , khích lệ mà ngƣời dành cho tơi gi p tơi hồn thành luận án Trong trình thực luận án, phần luận án đƣợc sử dụng để công bố tạp chí chuyên ngành lĩnh vực tài ngân hàng giúp gia tăng độ tin cậy luận án nhận đƣợc phản biện Qu chuyên gia Qu độc giả uy tín Các viết đăng tạp chí chun ngành có sử dụng nội dung luận án bao gồm:  Nguyễn Minh Sáng (2012), “Phân tích hiệu hoạt động ngân hàng thƣơng mại niêm yết Việt Nam”, Tạp chí Cơng nghệ ngân hàng số 79 (10/2012), trang 23 – 29  Nguyễn Minh Sáng (2014), “Phân tích nhân tố tác động đến hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực ngân hàng thƣơng mại Việt Nam”, Tạp chí ngân hàng Số (02/2014), trang 23 – 30  Nguyễn Minh Sáng (2014), “Mối quan hệ hoạt động kinh doanh ngân hàng tăng trƣởng kinh tế Việt Nam”, Tạp chí Phát triển Hội Nhập số 27 (07 08/2014), trang 17 – 26 TP.HCM, ngày 02 tháng 07 năm 2015 Tác giả Nguyễn Minh Sáng iii DANH MỤC TỪ VIẾT TẮT Từ viết tắt ADB AE CE DEA DEAP 2.1 DRS DTA ETA GDP HSX IMF IRS LTA LTD M2 MES iv Từ viết tắt MLE NHNN NHTM NHTMCP OLS PTE ROA ROE RTL SE SFA TA TCTD TE TP HCM VAR VRS WB v DANH MỤC BẢNG Trang Bảng 1.1: Tổng quan cơng trình nghiên cứu mối quan hệ hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực ngân hàng thƣơng mại tăng trƣởng kinh tế 31 Bảng 2.1: Tổng hợp phƣơng pháp lựa chọn liệu đầu vào đầu phân tích hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực ngân hàng thƣơng mại 48 Bảng 2.2: Mô tả biến mô hình phân tích hiệu biên 49 Bảng 2.3: Mô tả chi tiết biến mô hình hồi quy tobit 54 Bảng 2.4: Ý nghĩa dấu kỳ vọng biến mơ hình 60 Bảng 3.1: So sánh mức GDP bình quân đầu ngƣời theo ngang giá sức mua bình quân số quốc gia giai đoạn 1992 – 2013 64 Bảng 3.2: Hệ thống ngân hàng Việt Nam giai đoạn 1992 – 2013 66 Bảng 3.3: So sánh quy mơ tổng tài sản, dƣ nợ tín dụng tiền gửi khách hàng số quốc gia năm 2013 71 Bảng 3.4: So sánh tỷ lệ dƣ nợ tín dụng/ tiền gửi tỷ lệ dƣ nợ tín dụng/ tổng tài sản số quốc gia năm 2013 72 Bảng 4.1: Các ngân hàng mẫu nghiên cứu 78 Bảng 4.2: Số ngân hàng mẫu nghiên cứu giai đoạn 1992 – 2013 80 Bảng 4.3: Chi tiết thời gian nghiên cứu giai đoạn 1992 – 2013 81 Bảng 4.4: Mô tả ch số tài phân tích 82 Bảng 4.5: Trung bình ch số tài theo ngân hàng thƣơng mại giai đoạn nghiên cứu 84 Bảng 4.6: Trung bình ch số tài theo năm 86 Bảng 4.7: Thống kê mô tả chi tiết biến mơ hình nghiên cứu 89 vi Bảng 4.8: Kết ƣớc lƣợng hàm sản xuất biên ngẫu nhiên với hiệu kỹ thuật …………………………………………………………………………………… 90 Bảng 4.9: Kết ƣớc lƣợng hàm sản xuất biên ngẫu nhiên với hiệu chi phí 94 Bảng 4.10: Xếp hạng hiệu kỹ thuật hiệu qủa chi phí ngân hàng thƣơng mại Việt Nam theo SFA DEA 100 Bảng 4.11: Kết phân tích hồi quy tobit với biến phụ thuộc TE .104 Bảng 4.12: Kết phân tích hồi quy tobit với biến phụ thuộc CE .106 Bảng 4.13: Thống kê mơ tả biến mơ hình 110 Bảng 4.14: Kết kiểm định nghiệm đơn vị Augmented Dickey – Fuller 111 Bảng 4.15: Kiểm định đồng liên kết: Độ trễ 113 Bảng 4.16: Kết kiểm định độ trễ tối ƣu VAR 113 Bảng 4.17: Các kiểm định sau ƣớc lƣợng VAR 115 Bảng 4.18: Kết ƣớc lƣợng VAR mơ hình 2.25 116 Bảng 4.19: Kết ƣớc lƣợng VAR mơ hình 2.26 117 Bảng 4.20: Kết kiểm định nhân Granger theo mơ hình VAR 118 Bảng 4.21: Phân rã phƣơng sai GDP theo mơ hình 2.25 121 Bảng 4.22: Phân rã phƣơng sai GDP theo mơ hình 2.26 121 Bảng 5.1: Trung bình yếu tố đầu vào, đầu giai đoạn 1992 – 2013 .132 14  The ratio of outstanding loans to total assets - LTA and the ratio of total credit outstanding customer deposits - LTD averaging period 1992 – 2013 respectively reached 55% and 74% reflecting the important role of credit in the business operation of banks in Vietnam  The ratio of bad debt reserve on total loans - RTL remained low average of 1% in the period 1999 - 2013 However, the ratio RTL tends to rise during 2010-2013  The return on average total assets (ROA) and return on average total equity (ROE) remained at 1% and 11% in the period 1992-2013  The size of the average total assets of commercial banks in the study period continued to increase from an average of 6,586,036.11 million VND in 1992 to an average increase of 118,941,104.94 million VND in 2013 The growth rate of total assets on average reached 14.77 % per year over the period 1992-2013 4.1.3 ANALYZING THE EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN VIETNAM - PARAMETRIC STOCHASTIC FRONTIER ANALYSIS APPROACH  Estimation of technical efficiency To estimate the technical efficiency with stochastic frontier production function, this study designated the stochastic frontier production function based on study of Coelli et al (2005) in the form of simple Cobb-Douglas function, according to formula (2.7), analyzed in Section 2.1.2 If the bank has revenue outputs and inputs, the function estimating the technical efficiency of Coelli et al (2005) were estimated through the model: ln(Y) = + 1ln(I1) + 2ln(I2) + ln(I3)+ (ln(I1)) + (ln(I2)) + (ln(I3)) + ln(I1)*ln(I2) + ln(I1)*ln(I3) + ln(I2)*ln(I3) + vi - ui (4.2) Output revenue Y includes interest income (Y1) and non-interest income (Y2) The bank inputs include staff costs representing human resources (I1), the scale of fixed assets representing the physical resources (I2), and customer deposits representing the financial resources (I 3) Banks in this study used above mentioned inputs to create revenue output Y ε = vi - ui is a noise in which v i is a random element and u i is non-negative random variables used to estimate technical inefficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam To estimate the technical efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks, this study used the computer program named FRONTIER 4.1 through OLS regression (Ordinary Least square - the square of the minimum) and MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) as proposed by Coelli et al (2005) 15 Results of analysis of technical efficiency under the SFA in Appendix show the NSB and VSB have the highest of average technical efficiency at 94% in years and ANZ has the lowest of average technical efficiency at 47% with years of research During the study period, the average technical efficiency is only 55% in 1993 that is the lowest level of technical efficiency, and the highest average reaching 74% in 2013 The level of average technical efficiency of banks in the period 1992 - 2013 is very low at 66% The main cause of low banks technical efficiency in the study sample is the scale input resources such as manpower, physical and financial resources which are too large when revenue outputs don’t correspond In a sample of 48 commercial banks over the period 1992 to 2013, banks have average efficiency of 40% - 60% consisting of commercial banks: ANZ, INB, VID, EIB, MSB, SHI and HSB The study results also showed that 35 commercial banks with technical efficiency analysis stochastic frontier function in about 60% - 80% and the remaining banks have average technical efficiency of about 80% - 100% including commercial banks: GPB, OEB, TNB, SEA, VSB and NSB The analysis results show that the group of wholly foreign-owned banks and joint venture banks has the technical efficiency at the lowest average among the sample banks in this study, when the output scale is not correspondent to the input scale maintained at large Group of domestic commercial banks with small and medium-scale has the highest average technical when using minimum of inputs to optimize the outputs respectively • Estimation of cost efficiency or overall efficiency Where the bank has revenue outputs and inputs, the model (4.3) to deploy into: ln(TC) = + + 7ln(Y1)*ln(Y2) + + ½* *(ln( 12 TC is the total cost or resources bank used: human resources or staff cost (I 1), physical resources or net fixed assets (I2), financial resources or customer deposits (I 3) Y1, Y2 respectively bank outputs including interest income and non-interest income W 1, W2 and 16 W3 are the prices of the inputs I1, I2, I3 respectively the average staff costs, the average cost of fixed assets and the average cost of interest expense, = vi - ui is a noise in which vi is a random element and ui is non-negative random variables used to estimate technical inefficiency The study used analysis software FRONTIER 4.1 effective margin to estimate the cost effectiveness or economic efficiency of commercial banks in the total study sample according to OLS and MLE method of Coelli et al (2005) This study used the computer program named FRONTIER 4.1 through OLS regression (Ordinary Least square - the square of the minimum) and MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) as proposed by Coelli et al (2005) to estimate cost efficiency or overall efficiency of commercial banks in study sample To estimate cost efficiency or overall efficiency of commercial banks needs full information on prices of inputs including W1 - staff costs or costs of human resources, the average cost of fixed assets or physical resources - W and the average interest expense or the cost of financial resources - W3 However, in the period 1992 - 1998 the total number of employees of commercial banks has not be published yet, this study could only collect data on the cost of the inputs W1, W2 and W3 in the period 1999 - 2013 Therefore, this study analyzed the cost efficiency and economic efficiency of 48 full commercial banks in Vietnam in the period 1999-2013 with 472 observations The result of cost efficiency or economic efficiency analysis by software FRONTIER 4.1 (Coelli et al 2005) in the period 1992 to 2013 is presented in Appendix showing that the average cost efficiency of banks in the study period only reach 49% GPB had the lowest average cost efficiency at just 34% and HLB had the highest average cost efficiency up to 97% During the study period 1999 - 2013, in 1999, it had the lowest average cost efficiency at only 27% and it had the highest average cost efficiency up to 68% in 2013 In the study sample, there are only banks reaching average cost efficiency above 80% include LVP, MDB and HLB There are 11 commercial banks out of 48 commercial banks in this sample had the overall economic efficiency at the level of 60-80% under the SFA in period of 19992013 Other 31 banks had overall economic efficiency at 40% - 60% while VCB, GPB, and BID have average cost efficiency below 40% 4.1.4 ANALYZING THE EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN VIETNAM - NONPARAMETRIC FRONTIER ANALYSIS APPROACH This study used CCR model (Charnes et al 1978) and BCC model (Banker et al 1984), that were analyzed in Section 2.1.3 and 2.1 under software DEAP (Coelli et al 2005) to estimate 17 the commercial banks efficiency in Vietnam with the non-parametric analysis DEA approach This study analyzed the technical efficiency, scale efficiency in the period 1992 2013, allocative efficiency and cost efficiency or overall economic efficiency in the period 1999-2013  Estimation of technical efficiency The result of technical efficiency analysis under DEA period 1992 - 2013 in Appendix showing that HLB, HSB, NSB, and TNB reached the highest average technical efficiency and ANZ had the lowest technical efficiency of the 48 banks in the research sample The resuls of pure technical efficiency analysis in Appendix showing that OEB, AGR, BID, HLB, HSB, NSB, TNB and VSB had the largest pure technical efficiency at 100%, while ANZ had the lowest pure technical efficiency at 69% In the period 1992 - 2013, pure technical efficiency of Vietnam's commercial banks reached an average of 92% and the lowest reached 83% in 2004 Pure technical efficiency were maintained at a high average level indicating that Vietnam's commercial banks focused on increasing administrative capacity and the use of resources inputs in the right direction to reach a optimal pure technical efficiency Scale efficiency of commercial banks in the research sample in Appendix showing that the average scale efficiency of commercial banks in the period 1992-2013 is 91% TNB, HLB, HSB, and NSB reached the highest scale efficiency and CTG has the lowest average scale efficiency at 74% in the period 1992-2013  Estimation of cost efficiency or overall efficiency The analysis results in Appendix showing tat the average cost efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks under DEA period from 1999 to 2013 was 57%, with average allocative efficiency (AE) was 71% and average technical efficiency (TE) at 80% This results demonstrate that Vietnam's commercial banks are using the resources with high costs to reduce overall economic efficiency of the bank During the study period, Vietnam's commercial banks achieve the lowest economic efficiency in 2010 at 22% and the highest economic efficiency at 73% in 1999 ANZ is the bank with the lowest average cost efficiency at 20%, and NSB has the highest average efficiency at 20% of 48 banks in the sample research at 94% During the study period, the cost efficiency of Vietnamese 18 commercial banks is low with higher technical efficiency but lower allocation efficiency HSB and ANZ are banks out of 48 Vietnamese commercial banks, with the lowest average cost efficiency at 33% and 36%, because HSB and ANZ use resource inputs with higher prices in comparison with the other bank in research sample and they are in the early stages of establishing the wholly foreign-owned banks in Vietnam NSB reached the highest allocative efficiency at 94% when using the input costs such as human resources, the cost of fixed assets and the average cost of capital at lowest cost 4.1.5 Conclusion on efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam After analyzing and comparing the efficiency of the commercial banks in Vietnam through method of using financial indicators, method of stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and the method of data envelopment analysis (DEA ) in the period 1992 - 2013, this study found that the efficiency of the commercial banks in Vietnam had inadequacy issues: Firstly, the scale of commercial banks in the research sample had significant growth up to 14.77% per year in the research period, but at the end of 2013 the total assets of commercial banks was only reached 118,941,104 million VND on average, which makes Vietnamese commercial banks underutilize advantages of scale that banks are going to be Second, in the period 1992 – 2013, the average DTA ratio of commercial banks in the research sample only reached 60%, which makes a credit operation scale account for only 55% of total asset size of the banks in the research sample Third, restrictions on efficiency of commercial banks are asset quality of commercial banks in the research sample, which tends to decrease during the study period when risk reserve ratio on total loans RTL increases in the period 1999-2013 Fourth, there are limits on the profitability of the Vietnamese commercial banks in the study period when return ratio on total assets ROA only reached 3% and return on equity ROE at 11 % on average Fifth, the proportion of revenue from non-interest and non-credit services is still low in comparison with revenue from credit operations, which reduces efficiency of commercial banks Sixth, the limit of technical efficiency of 48 banks in the research sample is low Technical efficiency under parametric stochastic frontier analysis SFA was only 66% on average in the period 1992 - 2013 19 Seventh, the limit of cost efficiency or economic overall efficiency of 48 commercial banks in Vietnam is low 4.2 ANALYZING THE DETERMINANTS OF COMMERCIAL BANK EFFICIENCY IN VIETNAM 4.2.1 Analyzing the determinants of commercial bank efficiency in Vietnam From the model (2.20) and (2.21), this study conducted four regression models with the dependent variables respectively, including: technical efficiency under SFA (SFA_TE), technical efficiency under DEA (DEA_TE), cost efficiency under SFA (SFA_CE) and cost efficiency under DEA (DEA_CE) To synchronize the study period of the regression models, the model with the technical efficiency as dependent variables will have time to study for the period 1992 - 2013 The regression model with the dependent variable is cost efficiency which will have time to study from 1999 - 2013 due to data of the input prices to estimate CE can only be collected in the period 1999-2013 4.2.2 Conclusion on the determinants of commercial bank efficiency in Vietnam Through the analysis of the determinants affecting efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam through tobit regression models with the dependent variable is the technical efficiency and cost efficiency under SFA and DEA This study found that although there are some results not as expected, there are some notable problems  DTA - customer deposits to total assets ratio is related inversely to the efficiency of Vietnam’s commercial banks in the regression models that DTA makes sense  The ratio of equity to total assets - ETA has unclear effects in models that ETA makes sense  LTA variable measuring scales of credit operations also impacts counterclockwise on out of regression models that LTA makes sense  The ratio of outstanding loans to total deposits - LTD is only meaningful in the regression model with the dependent variable SFA_CE and reflects relationships in the same direction between LTD and Vietnamese commercial banks efficiency during the study period  RTL - the ratio of bad debt reserve on total loans is related inversely to Vietnamese commercial banks efficiency through cost efficiency  ROA variable is only meaningful in the model, when the dependent variable is cost efficiency under SFA (SFA_CE) This result reflects the same direction relationship between ROA and Vietnamese commercial banks efficiency in the study period 20  The scale of commercial banks - SIZE is significant in all models of this study, however, it has mixed effects in each models 4.3 ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM 4.3.1 Analyzing the relationship between efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam To analyze the relationship between efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam , this study used models (2.25) and (2.26), analyzed in chapter with the time series data through macro variables from the World Bank (2014), ADB (2014) and the average technical efficiency of Vietnam's commercial banks under SFA and DEA in the period 1992 - 2013 Analytical procedures are implemented according to Figure 2.3 in the order of steps: (i) tests for stationarity; (ii) testing for cointegration; (iii) selection of optimal lag length in VAR; (iv) regression with VAR; (v) The stability of a VAR; (vi) Grangercausality test; (vii) impulse–response function and variance decompositions  Tests for stationarity  Tests for cointegration  Selection of optimal lag length in VAR  The stability of a VAR  Regression with VAR  Granger-causality test to VAR model The results of Granger-causality test showing that there are only 02 relationships in which null hypothesis H0 is rejected: Bank efficiency under SFA_TE - D (SFA_TE) has no impact on GDP growth - D (GDP); and GDP growth rate - D (GDP) has no impact on Bank efficiency under DEA_TE- D (DEA_TE) Analysis results showed that bank efficiency through SFA_TE variable – has an impact on GDP growth and economic growth D (GDP) and on bank efficiency through D (DEA_TE) variable  Impulse–response function and variance decompositions 4.3.2 Conclusion on the relationship between efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam 21 Granger causality test showed that the relationship between bank efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam was unclear The tested results was only meaningful at relationships: Bank efficiency under SFA_TE - D (SFA_TE) has an impact on GDP growth - D (GDP); and GDP growth rate - D (GDP) has an impact on Bank efficiency under DEA_TE - D (DEA_TE) The relationship in the opposite direction, GDP growth - D (GDP) has an impact on bank efficiency under SFA_TE - D (SFA_TE) while bank efficiency under DEA_TE - D (DEA_TE) has impact on GDP growth - D (GDP), which does not make sense 4.4 EVALUATING COMMERCIAL BANK EFFICIENCY AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM 4.4.1 EVALUATING COMMERCIAL BANK EFFICIENCY AND DETERMINANTS OF COMMERCIAL BANK EFFICIENCY IN VIETNAM THE Firstly, the technical efficiency of the commercial banks in Vietnam in the study period remained at low level Second, the cost efficiency of the commercial banks in Vietnam was not high in the period 1999 - 2013 Third, Vietnam's commercial banks used primarily method of financial ratio analysis to measure the bank efficiency Fourth, the quality of human resources is a factor affecting on the efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam 4.4.2 EVALUATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM Results from experimental research with qualitative and quantitative analysis of the relationship between efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam in the period 1992 - 2013 found that there are still limitations to be overcome in order to enhance the role of the banking system for economic growth in Vietnam (i) The efficiency of capital supply to the economy via Vietnamese commercial banking system is low (ii) The financial capacity and operating scale of commercial banks in Vietnam is unreasonable (iii) The asset quality of Vietnamese commercial banking system is low (iv) The service and payment quality of Vietnamese commercial banks is low (v) The capacity to raise capital of commercial banks in Vietnam is limited 22 CHAPTER SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANK CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM The purposes of this chapter include: (i) Analyzing the oriented development of Vietnamese commercial banks; (ii) Analyzing trends in resource use of Vietnam’s commercial banks; (iii) Proposing solutions and policy recommendations to improve efficiency of commercial bank contributing to promote economic growth in Vietnam 5.1 ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT OF VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS According to the master plan on “Development of Vietnam's banking sector till 2010 and orientations towards 2020” issued under Decision No.112/2006 / QD-TTg on 24/5/2006 by the Prime Minister with the common development orientation to commercial banks under the restructuring scheme of the banking system Vietnam 2020, multi-bank system is developed with modern trends, safety activities, efficient and diverse structure of ownership, and regulation models with diverse forms, and be able to competing on the basis of technology, advanced banking management consistent with practices, international standards on banking activities is to meet better demand for banking and financial services for the economy 5.2 TRENDS IN RESOURCE USE OF VIETNAM’S COMMERCIAL BANKS The process of using the input resources of commercial banks in Vietnam remains focusing on traditional credit operations, but the cost increasing rate of using capital does not equal to the cost increasing rate of human resource, which proves that Vietnamese commercial banks have identified the quality of human resources as key competitive advantage in the modern banking business environment 5.3 SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANK CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM 5.3.1 SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY To improve bank efficiency, banks need to improve technical and cost efficiency According to SFA model, Vietnam's commercial banks need to change the size of outputs - income from business activity corresponding to the used input resources to improve technical efficiency First, Vietnam's commercial banks need to increase the scale of service provision and payment service to customers to increase the income scale from operating services and to meet the needs of customers better 23 5.3.2 SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE COST EFFICIENCY To improve bank efficiency, Vietnam’s commercial banks need to reduce input costs, such as the cost of financial resources, physical resources, wage costs or streamlining of personnel, and other expenses such as: management cost and advertising expenditure costs Improving management capabilities and efficiency of IT systems is to help Vietnam’s commercial banks to enhance inputs using performance thereby improving technical efficiency and cost efficiency 5.3.3 IMPROVED METHODS OF MEASURING COMMERCIAL BANK EFFICIENCY Through the analysis, the dissertation proposed that Vietnam commercial banks should adopt more frontier efficient analysis methods with two approaches (i) parametric stochastic frontier approach (SFA); and (ii) nonparametric frontier analysis – DEA approach to measure the efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam 5.3.4 SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF HUMAN RESOURCES OF VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS 5.4 SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE THE ROLE OF COMMERCIAL BANKING SYSTEM TO VIETNAM’S ECONOMIC GROWTH 5.4.1 Solutions to improve efficiency of capital supply to the economy via Vietnamese commercial banking system 5.4.2 Solutions to improve financial capacity and expand the operation scale of commercial banks in Vietnam 5.4.3 Solutions to improve the asset quality of Vietnamese commercial banking system 5.4.4 Solutions to expand and improve the service quality in banking operations of Vietnamese commercial banks 5.4.5 Solutions to improve the capacity of raising capital of commercial banks in Vietnam 5.5 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANK CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM (i) Complete of the regulations on the safety management operation of the commercial banking system 24 (ii) (CIC) Improve the performance of the National credit information center of Vietnam (iii) Control the problems of linked loans (iv) Strengthen the supervision activities of the commercial banking system (v) Improve and develop the infrastructure of the commercial banking system (vi) Create a favorable macro environment for bank operations 5.6 LIMITATIONS AND DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH Although this study has achieved the set objectives; however, due to the limitations of the study period, research data and methodology, this study has main shortcomings such as:  Due to lack of information and data about the input cost for the period 1992 - 2013, the study doesn’t analyze total factor productivity (TFP) and cost efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam in the study period to assess the better overview results  The study period of 1992 - 2013 is not long enough to ensure reliability when analyzing the relationship between efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam through a VAR model  Economic growth and the factors affecting economic growth are complex issues influenced by the economy; however, this study only focuses on analyzing the relationship between efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam over the period 1992-2013  During the study period, Vietnam banking system underwent many changes when there are many newly established commercial banks, wave of mergers and consolidation or rename of bank, which leads to unbalanced research sample and makes difficulties to analyze the efficiency of each commercial bank In the next period, if there is enough research data and full conditions of research, the study will develop in the following direction: (i) Expand the scale of banks in the sample research as well as the scope of the study; (ii) Develop and supplement the factors in the analysis model of the affecting factors to the efficiency of Vietnam’s commercial banks; (iii) Improve model to analyze the efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam by expanding the study period, supplementing more explanatory variables for economic growth, and accrediting the long-term relationship between the efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam 25 LIST OF WORKS HAS PUBLISHED BY AUTHOR THAT IS RELEVANT TO THE DISSERTATION Nguyen Minh Sang, Chung Thi Hoang Yen (2012), “Solutions to increase financial deepening to generate motivation for economic growth in Vietnam”, Financial and Monetary Market Review 362, pp 30–34 Nguyen Minh Sang (2012), “Analysis of bank efficiency of listed banks in Vietnam”, Banking Technology Review 79, pp 23–29 Nguyen Minh Sang, Nguyen Thi Hong Vinh (2013), “Research on the impact resource using on bank efficiency in Vietnam and Thailand”, CT-1301-1 – BUH’s scientific research Nguyen Minh Sang (2014), “Analyzing the determinants of bank efficiency in Vietnam”, Banking Review (02/2014) , pp 23–30 Nguyen Minh Sang, Nguyen Thien Kim (2014), “The role of the business operation of banks to economic growth in Vietnam”, Economy and Forecast Review (04/2014), pp 9– 11 Nguyen Minh Sang (2014), “The relationship between the business operation of banks and economic growth in Vietnam”, Journal of Development and Integration 27, pp 17–26 THƠNG TIN TĨM TẮT VỀ NHỮNG KẾT LUẬN MỚI CỦA LUẬN ÁN TIẾN SĨ Tên luận án: Mối quan hệ hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực ngân hàng thƣơng mại tăng trƣởng kinh tế Việt Nam Chuyên ngành: Tài - Ngân hàng Mã số: 62 34 02 01 Nghiên cứu sinh: Nguyễn Minh Sáng Ngƣời hƣớng dẫn khoa học: PGS., TS Lê Phan Thị Diệu Thảo Cơ sở đào tạo: Trƣờng Đại học Ngân hàng TP HCM Những kết luận luận án bao gồm: Thứ nhất, luận án chứng minh đƣợc vai trò quan trọng hệ thống ngân hàng thƣơng mại Việt Nam giai đoạn 1992 – 2013 kênh lƣu chuyển vốn chủ yếu kinh tế thông qua kênh ngân hàng thƣơng mại thời điểm 31/12/2013 tỷ lệ tín dụng ngân hàng GDP đạt tới 108.15% Thứ hai, luận án định lƣợng đƣợc hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực ngân hàng thƣơng mại Việt Nam giai đoạn 1992 – 2013 thông qua phƣơng pháp: (i) phân tích ch số tài chính; (ii) phân tích tham số cách tiếp cận biên ngẫu nhiên (SFA); (iii) phân tích phi tham số cách tiếp cận mơ hình bao liệu (DEA) Thứ ba, luận án phân tích nhân tố tác động đến hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực hệ thống ngân hàng thƣơng mại Việt Nam thơng qua mơ hình hồi quy tobit giai đoạn 1992 - 2013 Thứ tư, luận án định lƣợng đƣợc mối quan hệ hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực ngân hàng thƣơng mại tăng trƣởng kinh tế Việt Nam thơng qua mơ hình tự hồi quy véc tơ (VAR) giai đoạn 1992 - 2013 Cuối cùng, luận án đề xuất đƣợc giải pháp gi p nâng cao hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực ngân hàng thƣơng mại từ góp phần th c đẩy tăng trƣởng kinh tế Việt Nam Ngƣời hƣớng dẫn khoa học PGS.,TS Lê Phan Thị Diệu Thảo Nghiên cứu sinh Nguyễn Minh Sáng A SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ON NEW CONCLUSION OF PHD DISSERTATION Title of PhD dissertation: The relationship between efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam Specialty: Banking and Finance Code: 62 34 02 01 PhD candidate: Nguyen Minh Sang Academic advisor: Assoc Prof PhD Le Phan Thi Dieu Thao Training Institution: Banking University Hochiminh City Summary of new conclusion of dissertation includes: Firstly, the dissertation has demonstrated the important role of the Vietnamese commercial banking system in the period 1992 – 2013 The major channel of capital flows in the economy of Vietnam is the channel through commercial banking system Second, the dissertation measured efficiency of the Vietnamese commercial banking system in the period 1992 – 2013 through the three methods: (i) analysis of financial ratios; (ii) the parametric Stochastic Frontier Analysis approach (SFA); (iii) the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis approach (DEA) Third, the dissertation used tobit regression model to analyse determinants affecting the efficiency of the Vietnamese commercial banking system in the period 1992 – 2013 Fourth, the dissertation was to quantify the relationship between efficiency of commercial banks and economic growth in Vietnam through vector autoregressive model (VAR) in the period 1992 - 2013 Finally, the dissertation proposes policy recommendations and solutions to improve the efficiency of commercial banking system for contributing to the economic growth of Vietnam Academic advisor Assoc Prof Phd Le Phan Thi Dieu Thao PhD candidate Nguyen Minh Sang ... QUAN HỆ GIỮA HIỆU QUẢ SỬ DỤNG NGUỒN LỰC CỦA CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI VÀ TĂNG TRƢỞNG KINH TẾ TẠI VIỆT NAM 109 4.3.1 Phân tích mối quan hệ hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực ngân hàng thƣơng mại. .. THUYẾT VỀ HIỆU QUẢ SỬ DỤNG NGUỒN LỰC CỦA NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI VÀ TĂNG TRƢỞNG KINH TẾ .1 1.1 NGUỒN LỰC VÀ HIỆU QUẢ SỬ DỤNG NGUỒN LỰC CỦA NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI 1.1.1 Ngân hàng thƣơng mại ... VÀ MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA HIỆU QUẢ SỬ DỤNG NGUỒN LỰC CỦA CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI VỚI TĂNG TRƢỞNG KINH TẾ TẠI VIỆT NAM 122 4.4.1 Đánh giá hiệu sử dụng nguồn lực nhân tố tác động đến hiệu sử dụng nguồn