Bài tập phân tích điểm hòa vốn quyết định đưa sản phẩm ra thị trường và phân tích hồi quy e

Analysis of the breakeven point - Decision to bring products to market... Rationale for resolving issues raised in Exercise 1...4 1.1 New products and problems faced by developing new pr

Bài tập Phân tích điểm hòa vốn Quyết định đưa sản phẩm

ra thị trường và phân tích hồi quy

1 Analysis of the breakeven point - Decision to bring products to market.

2 Regression analyzes.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS 2

PREAMBLE 3

RESEARCH OF CONTENT 4

1 Rationale for resolving issues raised in Exercise 1 4

1.1 New products and problems faced by developing new products 4

2.2 To minimize the risk of launching new products to the market 4

2 Solve problems posed in exercises 1 6

3 Rationale to resolve issues raised in exercise 2 8

4 Solve the problem posed in exercise 2 9

4.1 Determination regression function between the variables and analyze the impact of each factor to the variables: 9

4.2 Inspection of the real impact of each factor to the amount of goods with a significance level of 5% 13

4.2.1 Inspection of the regression coefficient β1 whether actual relationship between the number of workers per shift (X1) with the volume of goods placed in shifts (Y) 13 4.2.2 Inspection of the regression coefficient β2 whether actual relationship between the number of trucks (X2) with the volume of goods placed in shifts (Y) 14

4.2.3 Inspection of the regression coefficient β3 whether real relationship between the number of excavators (X3) with the volume of goods placed in shifts (Y) 15

4.3 Coefficient of multiple determination and sense 15

4.4 Testing the suitability of the model 16

4.5 Prediction of loading and unloading of goods 17

CONCLUSION 18

LIST OF REFERENCES 19

Basic content management operations are making the decision, because the administration of an organization from the simple daily tasks to the major strategic, long-term basis and are based on the appropriate decisions Administrators desired outcomes like other words, it is the goal set for management decisions To be able to perform well this step, administrators should regularly monitor and supervise the implementation of the plan and the plan chosen Catch the information used is correct? Planning is done how? Outcomes of the plan laid out? In the process of implementing decisions will arise many problems yourself administrators and colleagues could not foresee Therefore, the monitoring and inspection will help administrators understand the problems arising to be addressed in the implementation of the decision On that basis, conduct revise, supplement or amendment to management decisions in accordance with the actual job requirements and so the results will be better

An effective decision is logical decisions based on the information available and reflect the preferences of the decision maker The important thing to understand here is that the effectiveness of the decision is not related to its effects A good decision can bring both good and bad consequences Similarly, a bad decision (decision due to lack of information or does not reflect the preferences of the decision) can bring a positive result The decision to achieve the objectives effectively with the considerations of cost, effort and related consequences Whether alternative measures

to bring negative consequences for choices made are expected to be less than zero? Decisions must also pay attention to side effects or indirect advantage A candidate for the position the employee may have the ability to excel not directly related to the ability to work, but this could be useful for the company Again, remember to pay attention to this

RESEARCH OF CONTENT

1 Rationale for resolving issues raised in Exercise 1

1.1 New products and problems faced by developing new products

With the rapidly changing consumer tastes, technology and competitive manufacturing market, a business can not rely on its existing products are Customers always want and expect new products and more complete The opponent will do our best to launch products with high competitiveness So every business should have a program to develop new products

Businesses can get a new product in two ways: one is through the acquisition (asquisition), by purchasing a business, a patent, or a license to manufacture other products The second way is through the development of new products, by forming part of research and development itself or contract with individuals and organizations

in research and development to implementation We will focus on the analysis of the development process of new products

Today in developed countries, only about 10% of the new product is really new

to the world These products cost and great risk, because they both for new businesses and markets Therefore, most businesses tend to focus their efforts on research to improve existing products rather than research and development of new products For example, Sony spent 80% of new product activity for the improvement of its existing products

The development of new products fail more often than succeed Why have many new products fail? There are many reasons A senior administrator may have supported the idea that he preferred, despite the results showed that the adverse marketing Or the idea is good, but people have overestimated the size of its market

Or the product has not been made perfectly adequate Or it was the wrong position in the market, or advertising are not careful, or so overvalued Sometimes the cost to deploy higher than expected, or the competitors reacted strongly than now planned So the situation now facing the dilemma, they must deploy new products but not sure what success Businesses can reduce risk by planning more systematic and establish a process of developing new products more efficiently

2.2 To minimize the risk of launching new products to the market

The development of new products starts with finding new ideas A business often have formed many ideas to find the best ideas The search for new ideas must be conducted in a systematic way and can not be a coincidence

To form new ideas about products, enterprises must actively studied from many different sources

-Customer Marketing standpoint, the needs and expectations of customers is the starting point for any new product ideas Through the study of the major groups of customers using products now in the polls, interviews and tests or exchange personal focus groups and through the suggestion, their complaints, joint can now find out what the requirements for product improvement they pose for manufacturers and researchers to develop products that can detect ideas or creative inspiration for new products

- The leading experts Businesses can also rely on the opinion of leading scientists, engineers, designers and skilled in outside businesses to form ideas about new products

- Competitors Learn intention of competitors and researching their products and why customers choose to use competitors 'products is a great way to make product improvements than competitors' products competition

- The supplier and distributor phamla a source of important information for shaping the idea feasible They always are close customer, understand ideas praise or complain about products now from our customers, so there may be a good idea in designing innovative products to deal better meet the demands and expectations of customers

- Leadership is now a major source of new ideas arising product They can propose and implementation to the idea of their new products or support the idea that they are promising success, or not to accept an idea is good but they are not appreciated

During this period, in order to overcome these errors can occur, businesses can apply the method conceived as methods listed properties (analyze, evaluate the properties are, from design solutions that improve and create new products), the morphological analysis (detection of structural survey of the relationship between them and find new ways of combining), the detection of needs and problems through

customer reviews, or method of creative brainstorming in groups (encouraged to provide as many ideas as possible, not to criticize, encourage and develop combined standard idea)

2 Solve problems posed in exercises 1

a) According to the principle of A:

With the assumption that the demand for products with a normal distribution, the principle of a speech that will bring products to market if μ> BE (the Break-even point) According to the information given by the fan market that the company is consumed with an average consumption of the product μ = 4000 and 3500 new product, the break in the first year Therefore, companies should put this fan on the market The decision can be illustrated as the following graph:

b) Draw a graph of a normal distribution:

5,500 5,000

4,500 4,000

3,500 3,000

2,500

f(X)

X

3,500

We see 4000 as the average consumption If the Break-even point is 3500 products then (D> BE)> 0.5, while the average for 4000 will be greater than 3500

c) Show that the two principles lead to one decision:

- In principle B:

Normal distribution

P(lower) P(upper) z X mean std.dev 1587 .8413 -1.00 3,500 4,000 500

5,500 5,000

4,500 4,000

3,500 3,000

2,500

f(X)

X

3,500

According to the calculations above, the probability that the demand is greater than the Break-even point, ie P (D> 3500) = 0.8413 This probability is greater than minimal risk that the company wants is 0.8 Thus says the principle B, then the company should bring products to market

There are presently estimated by the 2nd is the average demand at the breakeven point M:

M=BE – zpσ với P(z>zp)=p

With p = 0.8, so P (z> ZP) = 0.8, thus ZP = -0.84

So M=3500+0,84*500=3920 I still get 4000> 3920, thus company should still bring products to market Illustrations calculated as the graph below

Normal distribution

P(lower) P(upper) z X mean std.dev 2000 .8000 -0.84 3,579.2 4,000.0 500.0

5,500.0 5,000.0

4,500.0 4,000.0

3,500.0 3,000.0

2,500.0

f(X)

X

3,579.2

3 Rationale to resolve issues raised in exercise 2

Also known as multiple regression method, using analysis of the relationship between several independent variables (ie explanatory variables or variable causes) affects 1 dependent variables (ie, variables or variable analysis results)

In fact, there are many economic problems - both areas of business and economics, require multiple regression method Such as analysis of the factors affecting the national income, the volatility of foreign exchange rates; Reviews of revenue in case of multiple items; analyze the total cost of the many factors that impact; detailed cost analysis; causes affecting mass consumption

An economic indicators simultaneously affected by many factors positively or mixed together Such as sales and prices dependent, socially average income, interest rate, seasons, weather, advertising and marketing,etc, On the other hand, among the factors to correlate well with the linear internal in together Regression analysis has helped us test the hypotheses about the impact of these factors and the impact, both quantitative economic relations between them Since then, as the basis for analyzing and forecasting the appropriate policy decisions, efficiency, promote growth

Multivariate regression equations as linear:

Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + … + biXi + bnXn + e (1.12)

Where: Y: the dependent variable (analysis); b0: launch of the original;

b1: the slope of the equation according to the variables Xi;

Xi: variables (factors influence); e: error terms

Note: Y in the above equation is expressed as Y estimates, it is often written in the form of fertile Yˆ 

The goal of regression method is based on historical data variables Yi, Xi, the algorithm used to find the parameters b0 and bi build regression equation to predict the average estimate of variable Yi

From research and content analysis methods can find systems analysis includes factors closely related to each other: details, compare, contact, eliminating (replace continuous), correlation regression,etc, mission of the Organization for business analysis is to build relationships between these factors in each specific content analysis such as production, supply and consumption, costs, financial,etc, to appreciate good business situation of units and outlines potential can be exploited in the next trading period Thus, organizational analysis is the use of synthetic methods

of analysis to assess the correct results, indicating mistakes and seek measures to correct deficiencies in the business This is a basic requirement, it is very practical for business managers

Obviously, in any business or studying behavior in general, roughly surely fail

So after understanding the content, methods of analysis should inform the choice of content, collect and examine documents by content fixing, building system selection criteria and methods to adapt the system Additionally, as well as any other institutional, organizational analysis should be completed regularly in order to satisfy more fully than the demand for business management, this is generalized content distribution stages of the principal

4 Solve the problem posed in exercise 2

4.1 Determination regression function between the variables and analyze the impact

of each factor to the variables:

We conventions:

Dependent variable:

Y: The number of goods listed in the cases (units tons / shifts)

Independent variables:

X1: Number of employees working in shifts

X2: Number of trucks in shifts

X3: Number of excavator in shifts

From the multiple regression equation of the form

n

n X X

X

Y^01 12 2 

I would have assumed the corresponding equations are looking for is:

3 3 2 2

1

1

0

^

X X X

Y    

With the data given, tool use Excel, we get the corresponding parameters:

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Adjusted R Square 0.99218395 Standard Error 50.7516705

Regression Analysis

R² 0.994

Std Error 50.752 Dep Var Số lượng hàng hóa xếp trong ca (tấn/ca) (Y)

ANOVA table

Total 5,602,244.4444 17

variables coefficients std error t (df=14) p-value 95% lower 95% upper

The quantity of goods placed in shifts

Number of employees

Number of trucks

Number of excavator

Since the value of R Square = 0.99356325, we can see that 99.4% of the change to the quantity of goods can be classified in shifts explained by the linear relationship between the amount of goods in shifts with 3 variables as number of workers, number of trucks and excavators number

We see the value of P - value of the three variables X1, X2 and X3 are very small compared with statistical significance was 5% (or 0.05) can thus conclude linear relationship between these variables with the dependent variable

The regression equation of the form:

3 2

1

^

55 , 244 61 , 109 49 , 17 57 ,

Note:

In equation value o = - 402,57 Because when we do not have all three factors are workers, trucks and excavators, no goods will be handling, Y value must be equal

to 0 not be less than 0 Therefore, the regression model is meaningful only on the simultaneous presence of all three factors and conditions must be satisfied values

57 402 55

, 244 61

, 109

49

,

17 X1 X2 X3 

Through simple calculations we see that there must be at least 3 workers, 1 excavator and trucks to be able to ensure the operation in normal shifts In three workers, one to drive the excavator, a drive to transport workers and one remaining perform other handling operations Since then, we have added conditions to the regression equation mean is:

Number of employees working in shifts X1 ≥ 3;

Number of trucks in shifts X2 ≥ 1;

Number of excavator in shifts X3 ≥ 1 According to the regression equation, with 95%, we have:

1 When the number of excavators and trucks in shifts constant, if the number

of workers in shifts increased 1don you are ranked in shifts of goods increased 17.49 tons and vice versa, when the amount of shifts workers a decrease in the