Q2 Xa WW \)m ijwi t)oc yV'' tu "J*- Sioi iJiWl Xa hoi hoc so'4 (112), 2010 LY THUYET XA H O I HOC PHU THUOC QUA TRINH TRONG LAP LUAN QUA JAMES MAHONEY (PHAN II) MAI DANG HIEN QUAN* Phdn I cua bdi viet dd diidc ddng Xd hdi hgc, Sd' 3, 2010 Diidi ddy la phdn tiep theo cua bdi viet Chu t r i n h p h a n iifng (Reactive sequences) Chu trinh phan flng la ehudi cac sfl kien ket ndi vdi theo nien dai va quan he nhan qua Trong ehu trinh phan flng, mdi sfl kien ehudi vfla la phan flng ddi vdi sfl kien ve trfldc, vfla la nguyen nhan cua sfl kien ve sau Cac sfl kien xay sdm ehudi ed y nghia to Idn vdi ket qua ndi rieng va ca chu trinh ndi chung, vi mot sfl thay ddi nhd d cae sfl kien theo thdi gian va quan he nhan qua se trd mot sfl kien Idn va ed the thay ddi ban chat ket qua ehu trinh Nhflng ehu trinh the theo mot logic quen thude: A dan den B, rdi den C, den D va efl nhfl the, miln la sfl kien cud'i cflng ehudi phai phu thuoc vao sfl kien d l u tien xay ehudi Vi du: Isaac, Street va Knapp bien luan r i n g cai chet cua Martin Luther King da dan den sfl phat trien cua eac khoan phi hd trd nhan dao dfla tren mau da, thay vi cac chfldng trinh cai each kinh te tien bp hdn Hp trinh bay lap luan tren theo mot ca'u trflc cac sfl kien rat phfle tap, cd the tdm t i t gian Ifldc nhfl sau: Cai ket eua King (A) dan den that bai cua Cupe van ddng eua Hpi ngfldi ngheo {Poor People's Campaign) (B), dieu dan tdi nhflng cupe bieu tinh hang loat d cac pho' (C), dan den tranh chap phuc ldi xa hpi (D), tfl dd so' Ifldng cle ddn xin Hd trd tai ehinh dd'i vdi gia dinh ngheo cd eon AFDC {Aid to Families with ependant Children) tang len ra't nhanh va cac tda an, dfldi sflc ep dfl luan, da giam ra't nhieu chi tieu de dat AFDC (E) Nhflng dieu tren dan den viee Ifldng ngan saeh danh vao AFDC tang vpt, va day dfldc danh gia la mot ehinh saeh hp trd xa hdi tieu efle va khdng cd ban (Issac, Street va Knapp, 1994) Nhfl ta tha'y, chu trinh phan flng la mot ehudi eac sfl kien ed quan he vdi nhfl mot ehudi eac vien domino Vien dd trfldc dan tdi vien dd sau Vien dd cudi cung la da ed vien dau tien bi xd dd, va neu khdng vien nao hi xd thi khong vien nao ea day bi nga Ta cd the nhan thay sfl khac ve ban chat eua hai loai ehu trinh Neu nhfl chu trinh tfl cung ed' gdm cac sfl kien di sau di theo mot khuon mau dfldc sfl kien di ' Sinh vien Khoa Xd hpi hpc, Bgi hpc Bates College, Hoa Ky Mai Bang Hien Qudn 93 triidc tao va eung cd' sfl kien di trfldc thi d chu trinh phan flng, sfl kien di sau khong di theo khuon m l u nao het, ma thuan la he qua eua sfl kien di trfldc; sfl kien di sau eung khdng cung ed' sfl kien di trfldc, nd tham chi cdn ed the thay ddi tham chi dao ehieu ehudi sfl kien Khdng ed khuon mau nao het ehu trinh phan flng Pierson da nhan x6t ra't hay ve chu trinh nay: "Nhflng sfl kien xay d l u tien ed y nghia quan trpng khdng chi vi chung khdng chi tao nhflng md'i lien he ngflde, ed the tich efle hoae tieu efle ma cdn vi ehflng lam cho sfl viec sau bat buoc phai cd phan flng vdi minh nhflng phan flng dd lam he tho'ng dieh chuyen theo mot hfldng mdi, chfl khdng eung co'cho hfldng cu" (Pierson, 2000) - Yeu to' ngau nhien va giao diem nhan qua Trong mot ehu trinh phan flng, ra't khd de xac dinh dau la diem khdi ngudn cua ea chu trinh Dieu dat va'n de Idn ve mat ly thuyet phfldng phap luan nghien cflu, dac biet diem d l u tien, nhfl da ndi b tren, cd y nghia ra't quan trpng do'i vdi viee nghien cflu ca chu trinh Viec chpn diem dau tien nhieu tfl y cua nha nghien cflu, va that khdng de de tranh dieu nay: sfl kien gi lich sfl loai ngfldi chang la ket qua eua mot sfl kien khlc, va cfl nhfl the, dau la diem b i t dau? Tuy day la mot van de phd bien, dfldc nhieu nha nghien cflu de cap, nhflng chfla de mot bien phap that hflu hieu de giai quye't van de Chu trinh phan flng khdng nam ngoai cac tinh chat thuyet phu thude qud trinh Do vay, sfl kien lam dd vien domino dau tien, sfl kien lam b i t d l u ca chu trinh la sfl kien ngau nhien Nhfl da ndi b doan tren, ve mat ly thuyet, mot sfl kien nhfl vay se khdng the dfldc giai thich hoae doan trfldc O vi du tren, nhfl nghien cflu cua Isaac, Street va Knapp, cai chet cua King la mot sfl kien nhfl the Sfl kien danh da'u bfldc ngoat ba't ngd chu trinh va tfl dd, chu trinh re sang mot hfldng khac Neu sfl kien a'y khdng xay ra, lich sfl se hi thay ddi hoan toan King se tiep tuc nhflng cupe van ddng cua minh va ta cd the bien luan r i n g ta't ca nhflng va'n de ve phflc ldi xa hpi hay AFDC se khdng xay Trong hoan canh gin nhfl khdng the xac dinh dfldc xuat phat diem eho ehu trinh, eac nha xa hpi hoc lich sfl thfldng chpn mot sfl kien neu nd la mot "vet dflt d l u tien" hoae la mot " nflt that ba't ngd" James Mahoney cho r i n g sfl kien ngau nhien lam ca chu trinh b i t dau chuyen ddng thfldng la giao diem eua hai ehudi sfl kien khac ed xuat phat diem tfl trfldc (khai niem xua't phat diem d day cd nghia tfldng do'i) Va cac nha nghien cflu dung thuat ngfl conjuncture eho eac giao diem kieu (Aminzade, 1992) Giao diem thfldng khdng dfldc doan trUde blng ly thuyet, dd nd dUde coi la ngdu nhien theo ly thuyet phu thude qud trinh - Sfl khong doan trfldc dUdc, yeu to'nien dai va he qua Do tinh cha't cua chu trinh phan flng, ca giao diem ngdu nhien da dfldc 94 Ly thuyet xd hpi hpc phu thuoc qud trinh xac dinh, se rat khd cho cac nha nghien cflu de du doan ket qua cua chu trinh Tinh cha't dUde cae nha nghien cflu thed trudng phai hdn mang (Chaos theorists) ghi nhan, hp nhan dinh r i n g ket qua cud'i cflng eua ea ehu trinh la ra't khd dfl doan neu chi nhin vao lich sfl cac ehu trinh trfldc ehflng d i n tdi giao diem nay, ca chu trinh tuan theo cle thuat toan toan hoc chat che (Glass va Mackey, 1988; McCloskey, 1991; Reisch, 1991; Ruelle, 1991) Tuy nhien, dieu khdng ddng nghia vdi viec cac nghien cflu ve ehu trinh phan flng di vao ngo cut Tuy viee dfl doan ket qua ehu trinh vdi chi giao diem d l u tien la rat khd, viec nghien cflu va giai thich tflng doan nhd ehudi chu trinh la hoan toan lam dUde (Sherner 1995; Reisch 1991) Cac nha xa hpi hpc nghien cflu phu thude qud trinh nen coi cac ehudi ra't nhd ca chu trinh, thay vi ehudi Idn, la ddi tfldng nghien cflu ehu dao Cac nha sfl hpc cd cae cdng cu khoa hpc ra't phfl hdp vdi hfldng nghien cflu neu tren Vdi viec nghien cflu nien dai va sfl kien, nhflng nghien cflu ed ban nha't cua sfl hpc, rat CO y nghia vdi viec nghien cflu cac ehudi sfl kien nhd ea day phan flng Vdi phfldng phap tren, cae nha sfl hoc cd the liet ke dly du cac sfl kien di kem vdi nien dai cua chung tfldng quan vdi eac sfl kien khac ehudi phan flng nhd Ta se thay dfldc bflc tranh toan canh, tfl giao diem ngau nhien cho tdi ket qua cua ca chu trinh vdi cac nghien cflu nhfl vay Du rat khd cd the ed quy dinh cd tinh tdng quat cho mpi ehu trinh phan flng, nhflng theo James Mahoney, de tranh nhflng lap luan long leo, mdi ehu trinh phan flng nhat thiet phai cd du ba diem Dlu tien, mot ehu trinh phan flng tuan theo ly thuyet phu thude qud trinh, sfl kien di trfldc la dieu kien cln va du cho sfl kien sau (Abbott, 1983) Thuyet quye't dinh nhan qua (causal determinism), mot khai niem triet hoc, thfldng dfldc dinh nghia bang viec eac yeu to' cln va du dfldc sfl dung trdng viec xac dinh bfldc tiep theo chu trinh phan flng (Sobel, 1995) Cln phai hieu Cdn \a du la hai khai niem hoan toan phan biet Cdn di ve phia tfldng lai va dat cau hdi lam mot sfl kien lai lam mot sfl kien khac xay Du di ve qua khfl va dat cau hdi sfl kien nao co the lam thay ddi cai hien tai (Griffin, 2003) Trong vi du ve Martin Luther King, Isaac, Street va Knapp da nghien cflu ve dieu kien cdn ehu trinh, hp nghien cflu nhflng dieu kien can thiet de chu trinh xay nhfl vay vdi cae sfl kien theo dung thfl tfl nhfl the Thfl hai, chu trinh phan flng nhat dinh phai cd ed che nhan qua (causal mechanism) Theo dinh nghia, cd che nhan qua la mot qua trinh dd mot bien tao nen mot hieu flng nhan qua cho mot bien khac (Calhoun, 1998) Trong mot chu trinh phan flng, ta't ca cac bfldc trung gian la mot phan cua cd che nhan qua, va mot ehudi eac quan he nhan qua nam gifla giao diem nglu nhien va ket q u i chu trinh Mai Bang Hien Qudn 95 Cac phan eua cd che nhan qua khdng chi ket nd'i diem d l u va diem cudi chu trinh vdi nhau, chung cdn ket ndi tflng sfl kien vdi Trong vi du ve King, tfl cai chet cua King den viee AFDC tang qua cao gdm cd bfldc: A=>B=>C=>D=>E=>F Trong trfldng hdp nay, B,C,D,E thude ve cd che nhan qua n l m gifla A va F Tuy nhien, cd nhflng p h l n eua cd che nhan qua n l m gifla A va B, B va C v.v.v Neu khong phan tich ro cd che nhan qua d day, se ra't khd giai thich tai A lai d i n tdi B Trong viec giai thich nhflng p h l n cd che nhan qua nay, eac nha nghien cflu thfldng sfl dung cac khung ly thuyet gdm cd thuyet vi ldi, thuyet chflc nang, thuyet quyen han ya thuyet hdp ly Yeu to' cud'i cflng yeu to' he qua la mot thfl tfl thdi gian ro rang gifla eac sfl kien mot ehu trinh Dd'i vdi nhieu nghien cflu khoa hpc xa hpi, viee xac lap mot thdi gian bieu cua cac sfl kien khong phai la chuyen de dang Tuy nhien, vdi cac nha xa hpi hpc lich sfl, va'n de cd the dfldc giai quyet thdng qua nghien cflu tfldng thuat (narrative analysis) Nhflng bai ke chuyen thfldng dien ta cac hien tfldng xa hpi dfldi dang cae cau chuyen vdi eac nien dai cu the Viec cae sfl kien ehudi phai theo dung trat tfl thdi gian, vi neu ehflng khong tuan theo trat tfl nay, mpi phan tich ve logic hay tfldng tac hay quan he nhan qua se trd nen v6 nghia Tdm tdt: Trong chu trinh phdn ung, cdc sy kien tuong tdc vdi theo quan he nhdn qud Cdc SM kien chuol vCia Id phdn Qng vdi sy kien ve trade, vua Id nguyen nhdn cua sy viec ve sou Trdi vPi chu trinh ty cung cd, sy kien di sau chu trinh phdn Ong dua chu trinh chuyen dong ve mot hudng mdi vd khdng ciing c d hudng cu Do viec xdc djnh sy kien ngau nhien ddu tien mot chu trinh phdn Ong rdt kho, James Mahoney coi giao diem nhan qud (conjuncturai causation) Id diem ddu tien cua chu trinh Cdc nhd xa hdi hpc nghien cuu qud trinh coi cdc chuoi nhd c d chu trinh Ion Id dd'i tuong phan tich chinh, vd cdc phdn tich ndy dupe hp tro ddc lye bdi cdc cdng cy ngliien cuu cua sd hpc Moi chu trinh phdn ung nhdt thiet phdi tudn theo quye't djnh ludn nhdn qud (causal determinism), co che nhdn qud (causal mechanism) vd mot trot ty thdi gian cy the vd chinh xde III KET LUAN Cac nghien cflu ve hxidng phu thude qud trinh da gap khdng it trd ngai ve mat ly thuyet, cac nha nghien cflu chfla hieu r5 y nghia cua khai niem James Mahoney da dfla den mot dinh nghia ehinh xac va phan tich ky cac tinh chat cua ly thuyet tren Phu thuoc qud trinh la mot chu trinh xa hoi xay cd mot sfl 96 Ly thuyet xd hpi hpc phu thuoc qud trinh kien lich sit n g £ u n h i e n t h u c day niot ehudi cac sfl k i e n s a u xay r a va chuoi sfl k i e n n a y di t h e o m o t hfldng xac dinh Cd hai loai ehu trinh ly thuyet nay: chu trinh tfl eung cd va ehu trinh phan flng Trong eac ehu trinh tfl cung cd, mot sfl kien ed tinh dinh hfldng n g l u nhien dupe chpn lua gifla cae phfldng an; va ehudi sU kien xay sau dd, nhflng sfl kien sau cung ed cho sfl kien trfldc Trong cac ehu trinh phan flng, sau mot giao diem n g l u nhien dfldc xac dinh; va chuoi sfl kien xay sau dd, nhflng sfl kien sau phu thude vao sfl kien trfldc theo ed che nhan qua Phu thude qud trinh la mot each giai thich logic xa hpi ra't dac sac cua xa hpi hpc, the nhflng nhflng hien tfldng xa hpi nao se phu hdp de lam dd'i tfldng nghien cflu cua loai hinh ly thuyet nay? Nhfl Jack Goldstone da ndi, cac ket qua chu trinh nhfl cupe Cach mang edng nghiep d Chau Au the ky 17 chi xay mot lan, nd eo t i m anh hfldng Idn den ddi sd'ng xa hpi, thfldng la dd'i tfldng nghien cflu cua phfldng phap phu thude qud trinh (Goldstone, 1998) Cae trfldng hpp nhfl vay thfldng the hien yeu to phu thude qud trinh vi chu trinh dfle ket nen chung ed nhflng sfl kien mang tinh dinh hfldng d l u tien ngau nhien, dieu lam cho nhflng chu trinh khac biet vdi nhflng ehudi sfl kien khac vdi cac dieu kien hoan canh lich sfl tfldng tfl Vi du, viec phat minh dau may hdi nfldc la diem khdi d l u ngau nhien cd tinh dinh hfldng, nd da giup nfldc Anh phat trien nhanh hdn rat nhieu cac nfldc Chau Au khac ed hoan canh, dieu kien xa hpi va eong nghiep tfldng tfl Ifle ba'y gid O mot mflc dp nao dd, cae khai niem ed ban ve phu thude qud trinh di ngflde lai muc dieh khoa hpc eua bp mdn xa hpi hpc lich sfl Bp mon cd muc dich di tim mot md hinh khai quat eho cac chu trinh xa hpi, mot md hinh cd the giai thich sfl gio'ng va khac gifla cac trfldng hdp; xac dinh trfldng hdp nao la phd quat, trfldng hdp nao la di biet va dfl bao ket qua cua cac chu trinh tren niem tin la eac chu trinh deu theo mot md hinh tfldng dd'i gio'ng Cac nha khoa hpc theo hfldng phu thude qud trinh thi khong tin vao md hinh dd, ddn gian vi hp tin vao thuoc tinh rieng cua cac chu trinh va hp tin vao y nghia ed ban cua phu thude qud trinh: khdng cd ket qua nao cd the dfldc giai thich tfl hoan canh lich sfl d l u tien, nd ehi ed the dfldc giai thich thda dang blng each danh gia chinh cai ehu trinh phat trien da phat sinh nd Quan niem khoa hpc di ngflde vdi xu hfldng ehu dao eua cac nghien cflu xa hpi hpc lich sfl - so sanh, ndi ma eac nha nghien cflu cd gang tim sfl kien thuoc ehu trinh dd eac bien tuan theo mot mo hinh khai quat dinh sin, qua dd sfl dung cac ly thuyet de giai thich ket qua cac qua trinh James Mahoney eho r i n g cac nha nghien cflu theo hfldng ra't ngai ket thuc nghien cflu blng viee phai ket luan la ket qua n l m ngoai dfl doan hay n l m ngoai md hinh khai quat eua cac chu trinh xa hdi Mai Bang Hien Qudn 97 Tuy phu thude qud trinh dfldc xay dflng tren nen tang ly thuyet chic chin, nhflng khdng the ndi khung ly thuyet dd la tuyet do'i Neu nhfl eac nghien cflu tUdng lai cd the dUa eac tinh chat va quy dinh cu the cho yeu to' ngdu nhien ly thuyet phu thude qud trinh, dd han se la mot ddng gdp ra't Idn eho hpc thuyet Tfl gid tdi luc dd, eac hpc gia nghien cflu chu trinh xa hpi neu sfl dung ly thuyet c l n tdn trpng cac dac diem va tinh cha't cua nd, va c l n ndi cu the ve y nghia cua viec sfl dung nd Neu ly thuyet tiep tuc hi sfl dung mot each khdng chat che va khdng cd mot dinh nghia cu the, nd se mai mot he tho'ng ly thuyet xa hpi hpc Bai viet da nha'n manh cae dac diem quan trpng cua phu thuoc qud trinh de tranh dieu dd xay Tai lieu t h a m k h a o Mahoney, James Path Dependence in Historical Sociology in Theory and Society Vol 29 Issue Pp 507-548 01/08/2000 Mahoney, James Path - Dependent Explanations of Regime Change: Central America in Comparative Perspective in Studies in Comparative International Development (SCID) Vol.36, Number l.Pp 111-14L Springer New York March 2001 Abbott, Andrew Sequences of Social Events: Concepts and Methods for the Analysis of Order in Social Processes Historical Methods 16 (1983) Pp 129-147 Aminzade, Ronald Historical Sociology and Time Sociological Methods Research 20 (1992) Pp 462 - 467 Calhoun, Craig Explanation in Historical Sociology: Narrative, General Theory and Historically Specific Theory American Journal of Sociology 104 (1998) Pp846 - 871 *• and Glass, Leon and Michael C Mackey From Clocks to Chaos: The Rhythms of Life Princeton: Princeton University Press (1988).Pp - 7 Goldstone, Jack A Initial Conditions, General Laws, Path Dependence and Explanation in Historical Sociology American Journal of Sociology 104 (1998) Pp 834 Griffin, Larry J Narrative, Event-Structure, and Causal Interpretation in Historical Sociology American Journal of Sociology 98 (2003) 98 Ly thuyet xd hpi hpc phu thuoc qud trinh Isaac, Larry W., Debra A.Street and Stan J.Knapp Analyzing Historical Contingency with Formal Methods: The Case of the 'Rehef Explosion' and 1968 Sociological Methods and Research 23 (1994) P p l l - 141 10 McCloskey, Donald N History, Differential Equations and the Problem of Narration History and Theory 30 (1991) Pp32 11 Pierson, Paul Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and The Study of Polities American Political Science Review 94 2000 Pp 263 12 Reisch, George Chaos, History, and Narrative History and Theory 30 (1991) Pp4-6 13 Ruelle, David Chance and Chaos Princeton: (1991).Pp 47 Princeton University Press 14 Sherner, Michael Exorcising Laplace's Demon: Chaos and Antiehaos, History and Metahistory History and Theory 34 (1995) Pp 73 15 Sobel, Michael E Causal Inference in the Social and Behavioral Sciences Handbook of Statistical Modeling for the Social and Behavioral Sciences Edited by Gerhard Arminger, Clifford C.Clogg and Michael E.Sobel New York: Plenum Press 1995 Pp ... vd chinh xde III KET LUAN Cac nghien cflu ve hxidng phu thude qud trinh da gap khdng it trd ngai ve mat ly thuyet, cac nha nghien cflu chfla hieu r5 y nghia cua khai niem James Mahoney da dfla... dieu dd xay Tai lieu t h a m k h a o Mahoney, James Path Dependence in Historical Sociology in Theory and Society Vol 29 Issue Pp 507-548 01/08/2000 Mahoney, James Path - Dependent Explanations... trinh chuyen dong ve mot hudng mdi vd khdng ciing c d hudng cu Do viec xdc djnh sy kien ngau nhien ddu tien mot chu trinh phdn Ong rdt kho, James Mahoney coi giao diem nhan qud (conjuncturai