-^Ca f)m f)oc tf)e gidi xa hoi hoc so'3 (HD, 2010 83 LY THUYET XA HOI HOC PHU THUOC TIEN TRINH TRONG LAP LUAN CUA JAMES MAHONEY MAI DANG HIEN QUAN* James Mahoney dang nghien cdu vd gidng day d dgi hgc Northwestern d Evanston bang Illinois Ong la nhd nghien cdu xd hgi hgc chinh tri vi xd hgi hgc so sdnh, xd hgi hgc lich sd, ly thuye't vl md vd phiidng phdp ludn Mahoney diidc coi Id mgt nhiing nhd xd hgi hgc chuyen ngdnh ly thuye't phu thugc tien trinh vd lich sii so sdnh hdng ddu cua xd hgi hgc My De ghi nhdn nhdng thdnh tiiu ciia ong, ndm 2010, Hgi Xd hgi hgc My dd bau dng la ngiidi ddng ddu hiidng nghien cdu xd hgi hgc lich sd vd xd hgi hgc so sdnh Do khudn khd Tgp chi cd hgn, bdi viet diidc tdch Idm phdn Diidi day la Phdn I Phdn H se diidc ddng so Tgp chi tiep theo Tap chi Xd hgi hgc Gan day, nhieu nha xa hpi hpc cd thien hfldng sfl hpc cho rang nghien cflu theo hfldngp/iw thugc tien trinh (Path Dependence)^ cd y nghia to Idn dd'i vdi khoa hpc xa hpi Nhieu nha nghien cflu nhfl Ronald Aminzade, Larry Griffin, Larry Issac, William Sewell va Margaret Somers da di den ke't luan r i n g nhieu hien tfldng xa hpi cd anh hudng to Idn chi cd the dUdc giai thich day du blng cac nghien cflu theo hfldng phu thugc tien trinh (Griffin, 2003) Khdng nhflng the, hp cdn cho r i n g cac cdng cu cua hfldng nghien cflu xa hpi hpc lich sfl bp mon xa hpi hpc tao nen nhflng nen tang vflng chac cho viec tim hieu va giai thich cac hien tfldng xa hpi theo hfldng phu thugc tien trinh Khdng chi cae nha xa hpi hpc danh gia cao phfldng phap nhieu nha kinh te hpc lich sfl tham chi da nhan xet rang each nhin sfl viec theo hfldng pAu thugc tien trinh da lam md rpng pham vi nghien cflu ciia bp mon kinh te rat nhieu (Arthur 1994) Tuy la mpt hfldng nghien cflu the che mdi, chat che va cd y nghia Idn nhflng phfldng phap nghien cflu van cdn tfldng dd'i xa la vdi cae nha chuyen mdn Vay, cd sd ly thuyet cua phu thugc tien trinh la gi, nd nen dfldc sfl dung nghien cflu • ' Sinh vien khoa xd hdi hgc Dgi hgc Bates College, Hoa Ky Thu&t ngfl chuyen mon hien chUa c6 each dich that chuan xac Cach dich chuan xac nhat la "Ly thuye't xa hoi hpc ve sii phi^ thuoc vao tien trinh da qua" Trong bai se sU dung cum tii t i t la "phu thuoc tien trinh" noi den path dependence bai (Tc XHH) 84 Ly thuye't xd hdi hgc phu thugc qud trinh lap ludn nhfl the nao, cac dieu kien va gidi ban cua nghien cflu sao? Dd la cac cau hdi ma bai viet se co' gang dfla ldi giai dap I KHAI NIEM PHU THUOC TIEN TRINH Tuy cae nha khoa hpc da y thflc dfldc ve t i m quan trpng cua ly thuye't nay, khdng phai eung hieu nd theo nghia day du Theo James Mahoney, chfla cd nha nghien cflu nao dfla dfldc dinh nghia thflc sfl chuan xac cho khai niem phu thugc tien trinh Ndi each khac, chfla cd dinh nghia chinh thflc nao ve khai niem thflc sfl xflng t i m vdi y nghia khoa hpc cua nd Thfldng cac nghien cflu, khai niem phu thugc tien trinh dfldc dinh nghia mpt each tfldng dd'i mfl md nhfl "lich sfl cd y nghia vdi tfldng lai" hoae la "qua khfl anh hfldng hien tai" (Bernanl998) Cac each hieu chfla chinh xac nhfl vay dan tdi sfl lam tfldng r i n g phu thugc tien trinh chi la mpt phfldng phap dd ngfldi ta Isit lai qua khfl de giai thich mpt hien tfldng xa hpi Theo James Mahoney, day chi la nhflng nghien cflu sfl hpc t h u l n tuy, ehflng nghien cflu chuoi sfl kien va nien dai, cdn mpt nghien cflu xa hpi hoc quan tam tdi cac sfl tfldng quan lien ke't gifla cac sfl kien mpt chu trinh xa hpi dan tdi ke't qua la mpt hien tfldng xa hpi Trong cac phan tich ve phfldng phap luan cua minh, James Mahoney dfla ket luan rang mpt nghien cflu c l n cd du ba yeu to' chu chdt de dfldc coi la phu thupc tien trinh Mpt la, cac nghien cflu phu thupc tien trinh bao gdm viec nghien cflu cac hien tfldng cd quan he nhan qua va cflc ky nhay cdm vdi cac sfl kien da xay trfldc dd toan the chu trinh lich sfl Nhfl Paul Pierson da ndi, khuon kho cua mpt nghien cflu phu thugc tien trinh, cac p h l n trfldc cua chu trinh cd y nghia quan trpng hdn nhieu so vdi cac phlfi sau; nhflng sfl kien xay ta "qua muon" cd the khdng cd y nghia gi, du cho ehflng cd the se rat hflu ich neu nhfl xay sdm hdn (Pierson, 2000) Thi nghiem cai binh cua Polya (Polya's urn experiment) dfldc Brian W Arthur coi la vi du dien hinh cho quan diem Thi nghiem binh cua Polya la mpt thi nghiem toan hpc cd vai trd kha to Idn, cac ke't qua cua dinh ly la cd sd cho nhieu phfldng phap xac suat dfldc ap dung nhieu ca efldc va phai sinh ehflng khoan; nhien dd khdng phai la md'i quan tam chinh cua chung ta d thi nghiem nay, cd x bi xanh va y bi dd dflng binh Mpt vien bi bat ky se dfldc lay ra, ngfldi ta xem nd cd mau gi va bd lai bi dd vao binh cflng vdi mpt bi nfla cflng mau Sau lam n lln, chuoi sfl kien la mpt martingale va ti le gifla cac bi hai mau tien tdi b l n g so' a Tuy nghe cd ve phflc tap, nhflng ve cd ban, thi nghiem minh hpa rat cu the cho luan diem cua Pierson: rd rang la thi nghiem tren, xac s u i t viec cae vien bi ve sau dUde bdc hoan toan bi anh hudng bdi viec cac vien bi d l u tien dfldc Ifla chpn nhu the nao Cung vdi lap luan tren, ke't qua cud'i cflng cung nhfl ti le mau gifla cac vien Mai Ddng Hiin Qudn 85 Ip cung hi anh hfldng bdi vai l l n bd'c bi d l u tien Ddng tinh vdi quan diem trgn, mpt so' nha xa hpi hpc lich sfl cung da phat bieu: "trat tfl cac sfl kien cd the thay ddi chu trinh" hoae "viec cac sfl kien xay ndo cd anh hfldng Idn den viec chu trinh xay ra sao" (Tilly 1984) Hai la, mpt chu trinh phu thugc tien trinh, cac sfl kien lich sfl xay dlu tien chu trinh la ngau nhien (contingent) va khong bi anh hfldng bdi cac dieu kien va hoan canh lich sfl chu trinh b i t dlu Nhfl da ndi tren, chi cd cae sfl kien lich sfl xay d l u tien cd y nghia to Idn dd'i vdi ke't qua cuoi cflng cua chu trinh va chinh chi tieu loai bd kha nang rang cae dieu kien hoan canh lich sfl cd anh hfldng tdi ket qua Tdm lai, khong the doan dfldc ke't qua cua ca chu trinh se nhfl the nao neu chi dfla vao hoan canh lich sfl ban dau Jack Goldstone, giao sfl chinh tri hpc va xa hpi hpc dai hpc George Mason da ndi r i n g : "Mpt he thdng cd tinh chat phu thupc tien trinhkhi va chi ket qua cua chu trinh khdng cd md'i lien he nao vdi cac dieu kien, hoan canh lich sfl lue ehu trinh sap xay ra." (Goldstone, 1998) Neu ta nhin lai thi nghiem eai binh cua Polya, thi ke't qua cuoi cflng, ti le mau gifla hai loai bi tien tdi mpt b l n g so', dau ed lien quan gi tdi viec luc d l u binh cd bao nhieu vien bi hay ti le mau gifla chung la bao nhieu Chi den mpt vai vien bi d l u tien dfldc hoc ra, ti le mau gifla ehflng mdi b i t d l u tfl dn dinh quanh mpt gia tri b l n g so' Mpt vi du khac: khdng the ndi r i n g thflc trang nfldc Nhat gid day la mpt cfldng qud'c kinh te (ke't qua ehu trinh) cd lien quan tdi viec Nhat Ban la mpt qud'c gia rat thieu tai nguyen (dieu kien hoan canh lich sfl) Chi den ngfldi dan Nhat Ban, vdi ban chat sieng nang va quyet tam dflng day sau that bai chien tranh, bat tay vao cai tao dat nfldc vdi dfldng ldi canh tan dung dan cua Nha nfldc, hanh xe Nhat Ban mdi lan nhflng vdng quay than toe tren chu trinh tdi cdng Ba la, mpt cae sfl kien lich sfl d l u tien chu trinh dfldc thflc hien, cac sfl kien phia sau di theo mpt chu trinh vdi mo hinh cd tinh dinh hfldng dfla vao quan he nhan qua (deterministic causal pattern) James Mahoney hay gpi dieu la "quan tinh": cae sfl kien qua trinh da dfldc "nhd neo" bang sfl xay cua cac sfl kien dlu tien, ehflng se xay lien tue nhfl la he qua cua nhau, gin nhfl mpt hieu flng domino, cho tdi ket qua xuat hien va chu trinh ke't thflc Ban chat eua "quan tinh" phu thupc vao dang chu trinh, gdm hai loai la chu trinh tfl cung cd' (seLfreinforcing sequences) va chu trinh phan flng (reactive sequences) Trong chu trinh tfl cung co', quan tinh gdm cac cd che cd kha nang tai tao mpt mo hinh phat trien cua chu trinh cflng vdi thdi gian NgUdc lai, chu trinh phan flng, quan tinh bao gdm nhflng cd che phan hdi (feedback) de lam cho chu trinh trd lai dflng "dfldng ray" va nhfl the cac sfl kien sau xay mot each gin nhfl la tfl nhien logic, nhfl la ke't qua cua sfl kien xay trfldc ehudi P h l n sau bai se ndi ro hdn ve b i n chat chu trinh •• :':'n 86 Ly thuyet xd hdi hgc phu thugc qud trinh lap ludn II CHU TRINH TU* CUNG CO VA CHU TRINH PHAN I T N G Chu t r i n h tfl c u n g co (self-reinforcing sequences) Mpt hai loai chu trinh thupc phfldng phap phu thugc tien trinh la chu trinh tii cung cd O cac chu trinh nay, cac bfldc d l u tien theo mpt hfldng cu the se k^o cac bfldc tiep theo cflng theo hfldng dd va cung vdi thdi gian, hfldng di ay cang trd nen vflng chle va rat khd neu nhfl khong muo'n ndi la khong the re sang mpt hfldng khac Cae nha kinh te hoc thfldng giai thich cac chu trinh tfl cung cdbang mot hpc thuye't kinh te: "ldi ich tang din" (increasing returns); theo cac giai thich nay, xac suit eua mdi bfldc di cang cang tang tren mpt dfldng dfldc dinh sin, cho tdi nd dat tdi mpt gia tri thang blng (Pierson, 2000) Trong he thdng ly thuye't kinh te, dinh de ve ldi ich tang d i n dfldc dflng de giai thich sfl ben vflng va phd bien cua nhieu san pham cong nghe dfl cho chung chfla chac da la nhflng san pham hieu qua nhit, tfl ban phim may tinh QWERTY, oto, may quay video cho den nha may hat nhan hay he thdng dfldng sat (David va Bunn, 1988) , , ,/, , Tuy nhien, phd nghien cflu cua cac phfldng p h i p phu thugc tien trinh khong chi dflng lai d phat trien khoa hpc ky thuat theo each nghi cua cac nha vkt ly va kinh te, nd cdn ed the dfldc ap dung cac nghien cflu the che chinh tri va xa hpi Du cho quan diem khoa hpc cd the khac nhau, cac nha nghien cflu deu tho'ng nhat rang tinh chat dac trflng cua the che la nd rat vflng chac, khd cd the hi thay doi mpt sdm mot chieu Chinh vi tinh chat chle chin ma the che chinh tri xa hpi la do'i tfldng nghien cflu r l t phfl hdp do'i vdi phfldng phap phu thugc tien trinh ndi chung va the che tfl cung cd' ndi rieng Trong viec nghien cflu the che xa hpi theo phfldng phap phu thugc tien trinh, cac nha xa hpi hpc lich sfl thfldng di theo mo hinh giai thich lich sfl dfldc giao sfl Arthur Stinchcombe cua dai hpc Northwestern de xuat Stinchcombe nhan manh r i n g cd hai diem khdi ngudn cho mpi chu trinh: Diem d l u tien la mpt sii kien cu the khdi nguon cho mpt the che Diem thfl hai la qud trinh dd cle md hinh xa hpi t\i tai tao va phat trien (Stinchcombe, 1968) Nhfl vay, ta nhan t h l y ro rang - va y rat quan trpng - rang qua trinh hinh thdnh va qua trinh tdi tgo vd phdt trien cua the che la qua trinh hoan toan biet lap ve khai niem a) Phan tich qua trinh hinh cua chu trinh Vdi cac chu trinh tfl cung cd', cac bfldc d u the che dfldc Mahoney gpi theo ten khoa hpc la cac "nut t h i t trpng yeu" (critical junctures) Nflt t h i t trpng yeu la ndi nlm gifla hoan canh - dieu kien lich sfl trfldc xay chu trinh va ehu trinh bit dau dfldc thflc hien nut t h i t trpng yeu nay, cac nhan vat quan trpng ehu trinh Ifla chpn mpt hfldng di cu the (trong hai hoae ba Ifla chpn), de dinh hudng cho Id trinh cua the che Nhflng nflt t h i t trpng yeu "trpng yeu" d chd mpt mpt hfldng di cu Mai Ddng Hiin Qudn 87 the da dUdc liia chpn, nhU da lap luan d tren, cac sii kien heh sfl ve sau se hi anh hudng to Idn va lien tuc xay theo quan he nhan qua (hay ndi ddn gian hdn la nhU mpt hieu iing domino) cho tdi ke't qua dUde hinh Mpt da dat dfldc ket qua nhfl vay, viec ngflde lai ddng thdi gian va quay trd ve diem nut that trpng yeu de chpn mpt hfldng di cu the khac la dieu cflc ky khd, gin nhfl la khong tfldng Gin day, cae nha khoa hpc ehflng kien mpt hudng nghien cflu mdi kha h i p dan, dd la trfldng phai nghien cflu phdn thiic (counter-factual analysis) Trong hfldng nghien cflu nay, ngfldi ta lat lai heh sfl va phan tich tren cd sd neu mpt hfldng di khac thay vi hfldng di thflc te da dfldc chpn, thi ban la thflc te ke't qua se rat khac Ifla chpn khac se thflc day sfl phat trien cua mpt the che khac Nhflng phan tich nhfl vay se r l t hieu qua va thuyet phuc neu nhfl chpn dfldc mpt hfldng di dang nhe, theo dfl doan khoa hpc, phai dfldc Ifla chpn, nhflng da khdng dUdc chpn va dan tdi hau qua NhU the, cac phan tich tranh dUdc trUdng hdp cau hdi nghien cflu la "Neu da la" heac "Bie't the thi", lam giam y nghia khea hpc cua nghien cflu Vi nhfl xfla d hem Hoa Dfldng, Quan Vu ma thed lenh Khdng Minh bit Tao Thao ve thi lich sfl cd le da re theo mpt hfldng khac hoan toan Yeu to' ngau nhien rat quan trpng viec Ifla chpn gifla eac kha nang d nut that trpng yeu cua chu trinh Ngau nhien d day khdng nen hieu theo nghia hoan toan ngau hflng va khong cd cd sd khoa hpc Ngau nhien d day dfldc dung de mieu ta viec ly thuye't khong the dfl doan hay giai thich, dfl cu the hay theo mot xac s u i t nao dd, ke't qua cu the eua mpt chu trinh tfl dieu kien lich sfl ban dlu Dfl cho nhieu nha nghien cflu coi sfl ngau nhien ve cd ban cung la mpt p h l n cua ly thuyet nhan qua (Manis va Meltzer, 1994; King, Keohane va Verba, 1994), cac nha xa hpi hpc lich sfl cho ring ngau nhien la d chd tfldng lai khdng the dfldc dfl doan theo ly thuye't xac suit hay ly thuye't kinh te nao het Bien luan rang mpt sfl kien la ngau nhien khdng cd nghia la cho r i n g sfl kien hoan toan tfly tien Yeu to' ngau nhien gan bd chat che den ly thuyet phu thugc tien trinh, khdng cd ngau nhien Ifla chpn d cac nut that trpng yeu la khong co phu thugc tien trinh Bang Minh hoa qua trinh ba bade cua chu trinh tu cung co A B •> -> B,B,B C Hi^n tr^ng ban dau, dieu Nijt t h i t trpng yeu Tl/cung CO kl^n ljch si> OIgm 1; nhieu each li/a chpn (A,e ho^c C) Ly thuyet lihong th? d v doin hojc giii thich tai mpt phiTOTg incvth^diforcchpnlcrday UB) Diem 2: phmrng an B duvc \>ta chon, chur khong phai la A ho|c C Day la mpt si/ li/a chpn ngau nhien Oiem 3: Phifomgan Btieptgcti/ cijng CO qua thai gian va trcr nen v&ng chic han 88 Ly thuyet xd hdi hgc phu thugc qud trinh lap ludn Hinh tren bieu diin theo thfl tfl thdi gian trinh tfl cua cac bfldc d l u tien chu trinh tfl cung cd Nd cho thay d diem thdi gian mpt, cd Ifla chpn A, B va C cung la dinh hfldng eho chu trinh James Mahoney n h i n manh r i n g viec mpt phUdng an cu the (d day la B) dUde liia chpn khdng the dUdc dii doan hay giai thich theo b i t cfl ly thuye't nao Ve mat ly thuye't, neu ta cd the tua lai lich sfl va chpn lai eac phfldng an khac (d day la A va C), thi xac s u i t phfldng an B dfldc chpn cung se ngang blng vdi xac s u i t cac phfldng an cdn lai dfldc chpn Viee Ifla chpn d day ngdu nhien theo nghia nhfl vay Trong thflc te nghien cflu, eae nha khoa hpc se coi mpt sii kien la ngau nhien neu nhfl khdng giai thich dfldc sfl kien dd blng ly thuye't khoa hpc Cu the hdn, cac nha xa hpi hoc se coi mpt sfl kien la ngau nhien neu (a) nd cd quy mo nhd va qua cu the de nlm bat efl ly thuyet khoa hpc nao, nhfl viec mpt nha lanh dao chinh tri bi am sat hoae (b) nd ed quy md Idn nhflng n l m ngoai quy luat xa hpi nhfl cac tham hpa tfl nhien (Munck, 1993) Cac nha nghien cflu cung cd the coi mpt sfl kien la ngdu nhien neu nd di ngflde lai eac ly thuye't xa hpi cd kha nang dfl doan mpt ket qua theo mpt hfldng cu the Vi du, cac nha kinh te hpc lich sfl se coi viec cic cong nghe khong hieu qua vln dfldc sfl dung la ngdu nhien vi nd di ngflde lai cac quy luat cd ban cua vat ly va kinh te, dfl cho ke't qua se khdng dfldc tien doan bdi cac ly thuye't khoa hpc xa hpi khac Viec nhan manh vao sfl ngdu nhien cd y nghia khoa hoc to Idn, neu khdng cd sfl ngdu nhien viee Ifla chpn cae phfldng an d diem (xem hinh 1) thi ca chu trinh theo hxidng phu thugc tien trinh se khdng the cd lien quan tdi tinh khong the dii dodn triidc va tinh khdng hieu qud - nhflng dac diem r l t cd ban va quan trpng; chung la tien de de khang dinh r i n g phu thugc tien trinh la mot each nhin hoan toan khac so vdi cae trfldng phai kinh te hpc tan cd dien Chung ta ed the tim thay nhieu vi du cho quan diem dd tfl ddi sd'ng hang Ban phim may tinh tdi dung de go bai viet nay, ban phim QWERTY cung la ban phim phd bien nhit, chung d dien thoai Blackberry, d may n h i n tin, d cac may ATM Idn The nhflng, it biet ring, ban phim ly da dfldc ehflng minh la khdng hieu qua blng ban phim DVORAK (David, 1985) Vay, cac nha nghien cflu theo hpc thuye't kinh te hpc tan cd dien, nhflng ngfldi tin vao tinh hieu qua, se giai thich hien tfldng the nao? Dang nhe ra, ban phim DVORAK phai dfldc chpn cac hang may danh chfl b i t dlu san xuat, nhflng hp da chpn ban phim QWERTY va tfl dd gin nhfl dau la loai ban phim nhat tren the gidi Sfl Ifla chpn nhfl vay, dd, la mpt sii Ifla chpn nglu nhien chu trinh xa hpi dd ban phim QWERTY trd ban phim phd bien nhat, dieu ma khdng dinh ly hay tien de khoa hpc nao dii doan hay ehflng minh dfldc trfldc eac may danh chfl dfldc san xuat b) Phan tich sfl tfl cung cd' cua chu trinh Nhfl da ndi, cac nha xa hpi hoc nghien cdu phu thugc tie'n trinh thudng hi anh Mai Ddng Hien Qudn 89 hudng bdi cac nha kinh te hpc lich sfl, nhflng ngUdi cd quan diem r i n g dac diem hap dan nhat cua chu trinh la viec nd cd kha nang se khdng dat hieu qua cao nhat (potential inefficiency) Tuy nhien, theo James Mahoney, potential inefficiency chi la ke't qua hap d i n dd'i vdi nhflng nha nghien cflu theo chu nghia vi ldi (utilitarian) cua trfldng phai kinh te hoc tan cd dien; phd nghien cflu cua trfldng phai phu thugc tie'n trinh rpng hdn rat nhieu va cd kha nang ap dung cho nhieu khudn khd ly thuye't ngoai chu nghia vi ldi Do dd, de hieu hdn ve tam quan trpng cua ly thuyet pAu thugc tien trinh, ta nhat thiet phai xem xet nd tfl chieu canh cua eac ly thuye't Idn he tho'ng tri thflc xa hpi hoc Theo Randall Collins, nha xa hpi hoc eua dai hpc University of Pennsylvania, bd'n khung ly thuyet xa hpi hpc cd the dfldc sfl dung vao viec phan tich kha nang tii tai tao, tu cung cd' cua cac chu trinh gdm cd thuye't vi ldi (utilitarian), chflc nang (functional), quyen Iflc (power) va hdp ly Oegitimation) Dfldi day xin tdm t i t luan diem chinh cua cac ly thuyet dd'i vdi sfl tfl tai tao va tfl cung ed' eua tie'n trinh Thuyet vi ldi Trong bp mdn kinh te hpc lich sfl, cac nha nghien cflu thfldng dflng thuyet phan tich vi ldi de giai thich cac chu trinh tii tai tao Trong khudn khd ly thuyet nay, nhflng nhan vat cd anh hfldng, cd the quye't dinh van menh cua chu trinh, theo ly thuyet Ilia chpn sang suot (rational choice theory), mudn tri eae the che dfldc tao hoae de ehflng tfl tai tao tham chi ca nd chfla dat dfldc ldi tflc mong muo'n, vi neu thay ddi md hinh dd hp se bi thua thiet ve ldi ich Mot van da ddng thuyen, tau da khdi thi rat khd thao tau va lap lai ca tau van hanh khdng dfldc thuan cheo mat mai Suy rpng tfl thuye't vi ldi, cac the che se hi thay ddi mpt nd khdng eon kha nang sinh ldi Cae nhan vat ed anh hfldng (actors) se khdng de the che tfl tai tao nfla neu hp khdng cdn dfldc hfldng ldi tfl nd Theo quy luat thi trfldng, cae nha nghien cflu thuye't vi ldi thfldng coi tinh canh tranh cao - hay manh hdn la quy luat dao thai - cua thi trfldng la cd sd eho sfl thay ddi the che Tuy nhien sfl thay ddi theo thuyet vi ldi dien cham hdn d ngoai quy luat thi trfldng Thfldng ddi sd'ng xa hpi, viec danh gia chi phi va ldi nhuan cua oae ket qua the che khac khd hdn so vdi d thi trfldng Do dd, cac nhan to' xa hdi se it cd kha nang quye't dinh dfla tren ly thuyet ldi tflc t h u l n hdn la cac nhan tc' kinh te Theo ly luan nay, the che la ket qua cua cae chu trinh phu thugc tie'n trinh dfldc giai thich theo thuyet vi ldi se van chac chin neu dat ngoai pham vi cua thi trfldng Thuye't chdc ndng 'Cac nha khoa hpc theo ldi chflc nang ly giai hien tUdng tU cung cd'eua cac chu trinh theo hai ldi giai thich, mpt ldi nghi "nhe" va mpt Id'i nghi "manh" ldi nghi 90 Ly thuye't xd hdi hgc phu thugc qud trinh lap ludn "nhe", sii tii cung cd, tii tai tao cua eae the che chi dupe giai thich la cac he qua cua chinh nd, dieu n l m khudn khd cua nhieu ly thuyet xa hpi cd ban d ldi nghi "manh", sii tU tai tao cua the che dfldc giai thich bdi nhflng he qua cd tinh chflc nang cua nd (chflc nang hdp nhat, chflc nang thich flng, chflc nang sinh tdn) , va sfl tai tao dfldc dat tfldng quan cfla mpt mo'i quan he tUdng tac vdi he thdng Idn hdn ham chfla the che dd Nhfl the, d each nghi nay, cac he qua cua the che ddi vdi he tho'ng Idn hdn eung la tac nhan gay nen sfl tai tao cac the che ay Cac nha nghien cflu theo quan diem se coi r i n g hoan canh xa hpi, dieu kien lich sfl trfldc chu trinh xac lap the che dfldc b i t d l u ed the giai thich t h u l n tfly blng thuye't muc dich (teleology), blng nhflng ldi ich va the che se mang lai cho he thdng mpt nd dfldc hinh James Mahoney chfla hai long vdi cac ldi nghi nay, vi nd di ngflde lai vdi khai niem ve phu thugc tie'n trinh eua dng, ong cho rang dieu kien hoan canh lich sfl trfldc chu trinh dfldc xac lap khdng the giai thich bang bat cfl ly thuyet nao, va quan he mpt each ngdu nhien vdi ke't qua cua the che Do dd, each giai thich phu thugc tien trinh, chflc nang cua he tho'ng cd the ly giai sfl phat trien, tfl tai tao cua the che, nhflng tuyet nhien khdng the giai thich cho ngudn go'c hay dieu kien lich sfl cua nd dfldc Mpt cac sfl kien ngdu nhien da chpn Ifla dfldc mpt hfldng di cho the che', the che se phat trien theo mpt hfldng di gan nhfl dfldc cac logic cua thuye't chflc nang dinh san: the che cd mpt chflc nang nao dd vdi he tho'ng, dieu lam the che Idn manh len; mpt the che Idn manh len, kha nang ddng gdp chflc nang dd cua nd cho he tho'ng cang tang; sau dd the che cang Idn manh them, rdi d i n d i n dan den sfl vflng chac va ben bi Ta nhan thly, chflc nang cua the che do'i vdi he tho'ng la tac nhan cd ban dan tdi sfl phat trien Idn manh cua the che Nhfl vay, chflc nang cua the che thay the thuyet vi ldi each giai thich Tuy nhien, cae nha nghien cflu theo thuyet chflc nang cung nhan xet ring, sfl Ifla chpn co tinh dinh hfldng luc dlu la ngau nhien, rat cd kha nang the che dfldc chpn se khdng hieu qua blng cac the che cd the da dfldc chpn Trong hinh mpt, chfla chic B da la hfldng di to't nhat, cd the neu A hoae C dfldc chpn thi the che khac dfldc hinh se hieu qua hdn Ve diem nay, ca hai each giai thich ed nhieu diem tfldng ddng Trong ly thuyet chflc nang, the che luon dfldc dat mpt he tho'ng tdng the Idn hdn, gan nhu dUde he the'ng nudi dUdng va cung nhd the ma the che' tiep tflc phat trien dfldc Do dd, de the che ed nhflng thay ddi ed ban, can cd mpt cu sd'e tac dpng rat manh vao toan bd he thdng tdng quat, eu sd'e se lam the che bi anh hfldng Idn va buoc nd phai thay ddi de thich nghi vdi mdi trfldng mdi Thuye't quyin liic Gio'ng nhfl cac nha nghien cflu theo thuyet vi ldi, cac hpc gia theo thuye't quyen liic giai thich hien tUdng tii eung cd cua cae the che blng each danh gia gifla ldi tflc va ehi Mai Ddng Hiin Qudn 91 phi Tuy nhien, khac vdi quan diem thuyet vi ldi, cac hpc gia tin ring the che phan phd'i ldi tflc va chi phi khdng deu, va hp nhan manh ring cae ca nhan cd anh hfldng vdi cac mflc vd'n khac se ed nhflng ldi tflc khac tfl the che Tfl each nhin theo thuye't quyen liic, mpt the che cd the vflng chac ca p h l n Idn cae ca nhan hoae nhdm mudn thay ddi nd, mien la cd mpt ca nhan cd vd'n rat Idn (hdn ban nhiing ea nhan hoae nhdm kia) muo'n tri nd vi ca nhan dd dUdc hudng ldi tfl the che Trong nghien cflu ve phu thugc tie'n trinhvdi each giai thich theo quyen Iflc, can nguyen cua mpt the che khdng phai la mpt sfl phat trien dfldc ly thuye't dfl doan tren cd sd sip xep quyen Iflc tfl trfldc Tuy nhien, mpt the che phat trien, no dfldc cung cd' theo tfldng tac quyen liic, va dieu cd the doln trfldc dfldc Tfl dlu, the che lam cd ldi mpt so' ea nhan hoae nhdm va cd hai cho mpt so' khac Cac ca nhan dfldc hfldng ldi tfl the che se tim mpi each de tri va phat trien nd, ngflde lai, sfl phat trien cua the che' cang lam cac ca nhan tren dfldc hfldng ldi hdn Qua trinh cfl tiep dien nhfl vay Do viec Ifla chpn cac hfldng di cua the che luc dau la ngdu nhien, cd kha nang cae nhdm dfldc hfldng ldi tfl the che ed the Iflc d l u la cac nhdm le thupc ( d p dfldi) cfla cac nhdm khac, vd'n ung hd mdt hfldng di khac Nhfl vay, each giai thich sfl tu cung cd' cua the che theo each ed the dflng de minh hpa viee the che cd kha nang thay ddi d u trflc quyen Iflc cae nhdm xa hpi bang each lam cle nhdm d p dfldi manh len va cac nhdm d p tren yeu di Theo each giai thich nay, sfl tai tao cua the che la mpt qua trinh dly xung dot, dd cd nhieu nhdm hi the che lam thua thiet Chinh sfl xuat hien cua xung dot la cd sd cho sfl thay ddi, manh hdn la sup dd, cua the che The che cang phat trien thi mpt nhdm cang dfldc hfldng ldi, va mpt nhdm cang hi thua thiet, ma lich sfl, da ed xung dot la cd dau tranh Chinh nhflng dau tranh dd la dpng Iflc to Idn khien cho the che phai thay ddi Thuye't hdp ly Trong khudn khd ly thuyet cua thuyet hdp ly, sfl tfl cung ed' eua the che phu thupc vac y kien chu quan eua ca nhan cd anh hfldng tdi the che; ca nhan se muo'n the the tiep tuc phat trien neu ngfldi dd tin ring sfl phat trien dd khdng di ngflde lai luan ly va dao dfle theo quan diem chu quan Mpt actor dd nghi ring the che hdp vdi cac gia tri theo quan diem ca nhan, ngfldi dd se ung hp viec tri the che Dfl cho mflc dp ung hp cua cac ca nhan cd the khac nhau, thuyet hdp ly coi ring quye't dinh chu quan cua ca nhan la tac nhan chinh thuc day sfl phat trien Idn manh cua the che Thuye't hdp ly tuan theo yeu to' cd ban eua thuye't phu thugc tien trinh: met hfldng di cho the che da dUdc liia chpn mpt each ngdu nhien, nd se cang Idn manh neu cang dUde ca nhan quye't dinh chap nhan Su chap nhan dUde ke't d u tfl mot chu ky cua cac phan hdi tich cUc: mdt sU kien dUdc chap nhan qua khfl se tao tien de va neu rd dac diem cua cac viec se dUdc chip nhan tUdng lai Chu ky md 92 Ly thuye't xd hdi hgc phu thugc qud trinh lap ludn rpng se la ed sd cho sii tii cung cd eua the che: the che qua khfl lam nen nen tang cho sfl hdp ly, the che dfldc tai tao vi nd dfldc coi la hdp ly, va sfl tai tao cua the che lam cai hdp ly cang hdp ly hdn Nhfl da ndi d tren, cac the che, theo each nhin nay, tii tai tao dfldc la quan diem chu quan Va khong phai quan diem chu nao chic chin; nd cd the thay ddi theo cac each nhan thflc khac nhau, theo thdi gian chlng ban Khai niem "phu hdp" va "hdp ly" theo quan niem ca nhan cung la cac khai niem chenh venh, cd the hi bao mdn theo thdi gian va chiu anh hfldng bdi trinh dp nhan thflc Mpt ea nhan cd anh hfldng thay ddi quan niem chu quan ve hdp ly, ca nhan dd se khdng cdn thay the che hien thdi la hdp ly nfla, va mudn thay ddi nd theo quan niem chu quan mdi ve sfl hdp ly Tai lieu t h a m k h a o Arthur, Brian W Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy in University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor 1994 Bernan, Sheri Path Dependency and Political Actions: Reexamining Responses to the Depression Comparative Politics 30 (1998) Pp 379-400 David, Paul A and Julie Bunn The Economics of Gateway Technologies and Network Evolution: Lessons from Electricity Supply History Information Economics and Policy (1988) Pp 165-202 , Goldstone, Jack A Initial Conditions, General Laws, Path Dependence and Explanation in Historical Sociology American Journal of Sociology 104 (1998) Pp 834 Griffin, Larry J Narrative, Event-Structure, and Causal Interpretation in Historical Sociology American Journal of Sociology 98 (2003) Mahoney, James Path Dependence in Historical Sociology in Theory and Society Vol 29 Issue Pp 507-548 01/08/2000 Mahoney, James Path-Dependent Explanations of Regime Change: Central Internutional America in Comparative Perspective in Studies in Comparative Development (SCID) Vol.36, Number l.Pp 111-141 Springer New York March 2001 Munck, Gerardo L Between Theory and History and Beyond Traditional Area Studies: A New Comparative Perspective on Latin America Comparative Politics 25 (1993) Pp 491 Pierson, Paul Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and The Study of Politics American Political Science Review 94 2000 Pp 263 10 Tilly, Charles Big Structures, Large Processes and Huge Comparisons Russell Sage Foundation New York 1984 ... American Journal of Sociology 98 (2003) Mahoney, James Path Dependence in Historical Sociology in Theory and Society Vol 29 Issue Pp 507-548 01/08/2000 Mahoney, James Path-Dependent Explanations of... kien mpt chu trinh xa hpi dan tdi ke't qua la mpt hien tfldng xa hpi Trong cac phan tich ve phfldng phap luan cua minh, James Mahoney dfla ket luan rang mpt nghien cflu c l n cd du ba yeu to' chu... dfldc ve t i m quan trpng cua ly thuye't nay, khdng phai eung hieu nd theo nghia day du Theo James Mahoney, chfla cd nha nghien cflu nao dfla dfldc dinh nghia thflc sfl chuan xac cho khai niem