Tác động của sự phát triển thị trường tài chính đến cấu trúc vốn doanh nghiệp niêm yết trong Cộng đồng Kinh tế ASEAN ttta

Lược khảo cơ sở lý thuyết và nghiên cứu thực nghiệm cho thấy đã có rất nhiều công trình nghiên cứu về các yếu tố tác động đến cấu trúc vốn, song mỗi công trình lại nghiên cứu một khía cạnh khác nhau, chủ yếu tập trung xem xét tác động của các yếu tố nội tại doanh nghiệp, vĩ mô nền kinh tế, sự phát triển tài chính nói chung hoặc sự tác động của hệ thống pháp luật đến cấu trúc vốn; và rất ít nghiên cứu chỉ tập trung xem xét tác động của sự phát triển TTTC đến cấu trúc vốn. Điển hình, có 7/23 công trình với mục tiêu chính là nghiên cứu tác động của sự phát triển TTTC đến cấu trúc vốn doanh nghiệp; gồm nghiên cứu thực nghiệm của: Demirguc-Kunt và Maksimovic (1996), Agarwal và Mohtadi (2004), Bokpin (2010), Le và Ooi (2012), Masoud (2013), Le (2017) và Yadav và ctg (2019). Trong đó, nghiên cứu của Agarwal và Mohtadi (2004) không có biến đặc điểm doanh nghiệp trong khi cấu trúc vốn doanh nghiệp sẽ bị tác động rất lớn bởi đặc điểm doanh nghiệp nên việc thiếu nhóm biến này với vai trò là biến kiểm soát có thể khiến kết quả nghiên cứu bị sai lệch, Le và Ooi (2012) chỉ nghiên cứu doanh nghiệp trong ngành bất động sản nên không cung cấp được cái nhìn tổng quan. Đa phần các nghiên cứu đều không có biến đại diện ngành, trong khi đây là một trong những yếu tố tác động rất lớn đến cấu trúc vốn doanh nghiệp. Bên cạnh đó, các biến đại diện cho sự phát triển TTTC vẫn còn rất nhiều sự khác biệt dẫn đến kết quả nghiên cứu chưa thật sự thống nhất. Đồng thời, tất cả các nghiên cứu chỉ sử dụng từng biến đơn lẻ để đánh giá sự phát triển TTTC và chưa xem xét dưới nhiều khía cạnh khác nhau nên chưa cung cấp được cái nhìn tổng quan. Chính vì vậy, đề tài sẽ sử dụng các chỉ số phát triển TTTC của IMF dưới cả 3 khía cạnh (khả năng tiếp cận, độ sâu và tính hiệu quả) và chỉ số tổng hợp để xem xét tác động của sự phát triển TTTC đến cấu trúc vốn. Đồng thời, sự phát triển TTTC sẽ được tách thành sự phát triển thị trường cổ phiếu và sự phát triển thị trường trái phiếu để xem tác động riêng rẽ của mỗi thị trường đến cấu trúc vốn. Bên cạnh đó, một số nghiên cứu trước cho rằng sự phát triển TTTC phụ thuộc vào chất lượng thể chế quốc gia, do đó sau khi kiểm soát yếu tố này thì rất có thể sự phát triển TTTC sẽ không tác động đến các quyết định tài chính của doanh nghiệp (Kirch và Terra, 2012; Tresierra và Reyes, 2018). Do đó, mẫu nghiên cứu cũng được tách ra dựa trên chất lượng thể chế để có cái nhìn tổng quát hơn. Thêm vào đó, mẫu nghiên cứu cũng là điểm mới của đề tài. Cụ thể, lược khảo các nghiên cứu trước cho thấy hầu hết các nghiên cứu đều không bao gồm dữ liệu của Việt Nam, còn đối với 4 nghiên cứu có dữ liệu Việt Nam thì lại là nghiên cứu chỉ tại 1 quốc gia đơn lẻ. Trong khi đó, mục tiêu nghiên cứu là muốn xem xét tác động của sự phát triển TTTC đến cấu trúc vốn, nên việc giới hạn dữ liệu tại 1 quốc gia sẽ làm cho các biến đại diện cho sự phát triển TTTC là đồng nhất cho tất cả các quan sát trong mẫu; điều này dẫn đến rất khó thấy được tác động của sự phát triển TTTC đến cấu trúc vốn. Còn đối với các nghiên cứu đa quốc gia thì không nghiên cứu nào bao gồm dữ liệu của Việt Nam, và cũng không có nghiên cứu nào nghiên cứu riêng về 5 quốc gia trong khối AEC (gồm Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thái Lan và Việt Nam). Trong khi đó, 5 quốc gia trên đã hợp lại tạo thành sàn giao dịch ASEAN vào năm 2011 để thúc đẩy tăng trưởng thị trường vốn các nước; và AEC được chính thức thành lập vào cuối năm 2015 nhằm tạo ra một thị trường và cơ sở sản xuất duy nhất. Bên cạnh đó, trong số các quốc gia thực hiện cải cách tài chính, các nền kinh tế ASEAN-5 (gồm Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thái Lan và Singapore) là những nền kinh tế nổi tiếng nhất. Một số học giả cho rằng cuộc khủng hoảng 1997–1998 của nền kinh tế châu Á là một hệ quả không may mắn của hệ thống tài chính trong nước hoạt động yếu kém. Khủng hoảng tài chính đã khiến các nền kinh tế của Châu Á rơi vào tình trạng suy sụp kinh tế, và cho đến năm 2004, các nền kinh tế này vẫn chưa phục hồi vì tốc độ tăng trưởng vẫn thấp hơn tốc độ trước cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính (Malarvizhi và ctg, 2019). Bên cạnh đó, mức độ phát triển của 5 quốc gia trong khối cũng có rất nhiều khác biệt xét về thu nhập bình quân đầu người, thị trường vốn và cả thị trường tiền tệ; trong đó Việt Nam là nước có xếp hạng gần như thấp nhất. Cụ thể, nếu phân loại các nước dựa trên thu nhập bình quân đầu người trong giai đoạn 2010 – 2020 theo tiêu chí của Ngân hàng Thế Giới thì ba nước (Malaysia, Thái Lan và Indonesia) là nước có thu nhập trung bình cao, và hai nước (Philippines và Việt Nam) có thu nhập trung bình thấp; còn theo tiêu chí phân loại TTCK của FTSE Russel thì hai nước (Malaysia và Thái Lan) là thị trường mới nổi loại 1, hai nước (Indonesia và Philippines) là thị trường mới nổi loại 2, và Việt Nam là thị trường cận biên. Song, các cơ quan quản lý Việt Nam đang nỗ lực xây dựng các nghị định, thông tư hướng dẫn thi hành Luật Chứng khoán (sửa đổi), trong đó có những nội dung đáp ứng tiêu chí nâng hạng thị trường và Việt Nam đang kỳ vọng sẽ được FTSE Russell nâng hạng vào tháng 9/2021, còn MSCI thêm vào danh sách theo dõi nâng hạng từ năm 2022 (Trần Vũ Cường, 2020). Chính vì vậy, việc xem xét tác động của sự phát triển TTTC đến cấu trúc vốn tại 5 quốc gia đang phát triển trong AEC giai đoạn 2010 – 2020 sẽ cho kết quả nghiên cứu đáng tin cậy hơn, và có thể sẽ cung cấp rất nhiều hàm ý chính sách cho Việt Nam. Nói một cách tổng quát, đề tài sẽ tập trung xem xét nhiều khía cạnh khác nhau của sự phát triển TTTC nhằm lấp đầy khoảng trống cho các nước trong khối ASEAN, bổ sung thêm bằng chứng thực nghiệm về cấu trúc vốn tại các nước đang phát triển. Đồng thời, việc đưa chất lượng thể chế quốc gia vào xem xét sẽ cho kết quả nghiên cứu đáng tin cậy và cung cấp cái nhìn toàn diện hơn.

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY - - THESIS SUMMARY Major: Finance - Banking Industry code: 9.34.02.01 IMPACT OF FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT ON CAPITAL STRUCTURE OF LISTED FIRMS IN THE ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY PhD student: Tram Bich Loc Student code: 010121160011 Lecturers: PhD Nguyen Van Thuan PhD Ngo Van Tuan HO CHI MINH CITY, MAY 27, 2022 CHAPTER 1: TOPIC OVERVIEW 1.1 Research problem and topic urgency For decades, capital structure topic has attracted attention of many academic researchers and policy makers owing to the capital structure’s important role in optimizing capital efficiency, increasing enterprises value, and contributing to economic growth In addition, financial market is a place where the relationship between supply and demand for capital is summed up The key role of the financial market is to open up the possibility of many funds sources, support corporate finance activities, which relates to defining the amount of capital to raise and what types of securities need to be issued to finance operations, to be conducted smoothly In fact, there are many empirical studies related to capital structure, most of them focus on the impact of internal factors in the enterprise on capital structure, or the capital structure impact on business performance, and only a few studies pay attention to the impact of financial markets development on capital structure despite its important role Specifically, it provides more forms of capital mobilization for businesses, financial market development also helps to reduce asymmetric information, thereby reducing the cost of capital mobilization as well as the agency problem, etc For this reason, there will be a certain impact of financial market development on capital structure In addition, previous studies have produced heterogeneous results and no single theory seems to be relevant in explaining capital structure choice Although the problem has been studied with both developed and developing countries, the ambiguity seems to be much more severe for developing countries This is because the roles of developed and developing capital markets can be different in the choice of corporate capital structure Furthermore, while the regulatory and institutional environments of developed countries are quite similar, those of emerging markets are significantly different Thus, these differences may explain the contradiction in findings from emerging countries studies (Wald, 1999; Yarba and Guner, 2019; Yadav, Pahi and Gangakhedkar, 2019) Therefore, the study of factors affecting the choice of capital structure may not be generalized from developed economies to emerging (developing) economies, which have markedly different levels of financial infrastructure, institutional openness, and capital market development from each other (Machokoto, Areneke and Ibrahim, 2020) At the same time, a review of previous studies shows that although the number of empirical research is generally increasing in developing countries, the number of empirical research in the ASEAN region is still very limited (Phooi, Rahman and Sannacy, 2017) In conclusion, the topic "Impact of financial market development on capital structure of listed firms in the ASEAN Economic Community" was chosen to determine and measure the financial market development impact on the capital structure of listed companies in developing countries in the AEC 1.2 Research objectives and questions The overall objective of the thesis is to study the financial market development impact on the capital structure of listed companies in developing countries in the AEC, then propose a number of solutions based on the findings to help policy makers have a basis to propose more appropriate regulations and ways of operating financial markets To achieve the research objectives, the thesis needs to find answers for the following questions: (1) Does the development of financial markets affect the capital structure of listed companies in the AEC? (2) Will the impact of the development of financial markets on the capital structure of listed companies in the AEC change when there is a difference in the quality of national institutions? (3) What solutions to promote the development of financial markets in order to facilitate enterprises in mobilizing external capital, as well as maintaining or adjusting the capital structure to a reasonable level to promote economic development? 1.3 Research Methods To achieve the objectives and find the most suitable answers to the research questions, the thesis uses the regression method on panel data under support of Stata software to process and analyse the data, thereby considering the impact of independent variables on the firm's capital structure and testing the proposed hypotheses The research process of the thesis is based on basis of previous studies, including theoretical basis, approaches and variables in experimental research 1.4 Object and scope of the study Research object: The impact of financial market development on capital structure of enterprises listed in AEC; direction and magnitude of the impact Research scope: The study focuses on developing countries in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Specifically, the research data is collected in countries within the AEC, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam; four other countries including Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are not included because the stock markets in these countries have been established in recent times, so the data does not match the requirements of the study; Singapore is also excluded from the sample because it is a developed market At the same time, based on per capita income or stock market development according to FTSE Russel, developing countries in the AEC region also have different development level; therefore, the research results will be more objective and reliable Moreover, in order to ensure the research period is long enough and avoid the impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the selected research period is from 2010 to 2020 1.5 Research contribution Scientific contribution: Most of the current studies concentrate on the enterprises’ internal factors, the macro economy, the financial development in general or the legal system impacts upon the capital structure, and very few studies analyze the impact of financial market development on capital structure individually Therefore, the variables measuring financial market development in previous studies are not adequate and not cover all aspects that need to be considered In addition, although there are many multinational studies on the above issues, there are no or only a few individual countries in the AEC to be mentioned Therefore, the study will add more empirical evidence on the impact of financial market development on the capital structure of five developing countries in the AEC in the period 2010-2020 Besides, some previous studies argues that the financial market’s development may not affect the financial decisionmaking of corporates if the quality of national institution variable, which the development of financial market depends on, is controlled (Kirch and Terra, 2012; Tresierra and Reyes, 2018) Therefore, the quality of national institutions will be taken into consideration so that the research results are more reliable and provide a more comprehensive view Practical contribution: The research results will help business administrators and policy makers understand more about the direction and extent of the representative factors of financial market development impact on capital structure, thereby proposing solutions and policies to promote the development of financial markets in order to help businesses adjust their capital structure to a reasonable level, develop as well as promote economic growth 1.6 Thesis structure In addition to the introduction, conclusion and some appendices, the thesis is structured in chapters, including: Chapter 1: Topic overview Chapter 2: Theoritical framework and empirical studies Chapter 3: Methodology Chapter 4: Results and discussion Chapter 5: Conclusion and policy implications CHAPTER 2: THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical framework The thesis has reviewed relevant theoretical bases such as the concept of capital structure and optimal capital structure, advantages and disadvantages of debt and equity financing, how to measure capital structure; basic theories related to capital structure, including asymmetric information theory, M&M theory, trade-off theory, agency theory, pecking order theory and market timing theory Based on these theories, the thesis synthesizes the micro-factors affecting the capital structure of enterprises such as firm size, asset structure (ratio of fixed assets to total assets), profitability, growth opportunities, and tax shields Moreover, the thesis synthesizes the theoretical bases related to financial market (such as concepts, functions, classifications), financial market development as well as stock market and bond market, which are the two constituents of financial market; indicators measuring the development of financial market; and analyze the impact of financial market development on capital structure Besides, the quality of national institutions is also taken into consideration because the development of financial market can be the result of better investor protection thanks to the institutional framework, property rights, etc., (La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer and Vishny, 2000) In addition, Kirch and Terra (2012), Tresierra and Reyes (2018) state that if the quality of investor protection is controlled, financial market development, which is simply the result of better investor protection, will not affect corporate financial decisions Therefore, national institutional quality is considered in order to ensure reliable research results 2.2 Literature review In order to have an overview of previous studies, the thesis references study of Kumar, Colombage and Rao (2017) based on 167 research articles, which were published by many different journals in 40 years (from 1972 to 2013), about the determinants of corporate capital structure The main findings of Kumar et al (2017) show that studies on the determinants of corporate capital structure in developed economies are numerous and comparatively sufficient; however, in emerging markets, this issue has not been fully considered because the capital and securities markets in emerging markets are relatively inefficient and inadequate compared with developed markets Consequently, the financial decisions of corporates in emerging markets are incomplete and anomalous, leaving a research gap for further experimental studies and survey research Moreover, most of the literature has been studied only at the firm level, and the impact of leverage on different industries and different countries has not been fully examined For these reasons, the research of Kumar et al (2017) is an important premise for the author to select domestic and foreign studies related to the topic There have been many studies on factors affecting capital structure in many countries around the world These factors are very diverse, such as macro factors, differences between countries in terms of financial institutions and institutional settings, the impact of the economic crisis, financial integration, etc The research scope can be in one country or in many countries, but the thesis focuses more on cross-national studies to better suit the research direction of the topic Finally, the thesis selects 23 related empirical studies (in which there are articles in Q1, articles in Q2, articles in Q3 and articles in Q4), including 19 foreign research papers and four domestic research papers Specifically, foreign studies comprise Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (1996, 1999), Agarwal and Mohtadi (2004), Bokpin (2010), Le and Ooi (2012), Masoud (2013), Yadav et al (2019) research on the financial market development impact on corporate capital structure, Deesomsak, Paudyal and Pescetto (2004, 2009), Zafar, Wongsurawat and Camino (2019) research on the factors affecting capital structure, Kirch and Terra (2012), Tresierra and Reyes (2018), Cam and Ozer (2021) research on the quality of national governance affecting corporate capital structure, Booth, Aivazian, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (2001), Bokpin (2009), Lucey and Zhang (2011), Lemma and Negash (2012) research on the macro factors affecting corporate capital structure, and Kayo and Kimura (2011), and Haron (2014) related research on capital structure Domestic studies include Le Dat Chi (2013), Dang Thi Quynh Anh and Quach Thi Hai Yen (2014), Vo Thi Thuy Anh, Tran Khanh Ly, Le Thi Nguyet Anh and Tran Thi Dung (2014), and Le (2017) 2.3 Research gap There have been many studies on the factors affecting capital structure, but each work has been focused on different features (some studies include variables representing the development of capital market, or money market, or both), and very few works focus on examining the financial market development impact on capital structure Specifically, in the review of previous studies, there are studies with the main objective is the financial market development impact on capital structure; including empirical research by Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (1996), Agarwal and Mohtadi (2004), Bokpin (2010), Le and Ooi (2012), Masoud (2013), Le (2017) and Yadav et al (2019) ) In which, the reasearch of Agarwal and Mohtadi (2004) may lead to an insufficient result due to the lack of the firm characteristics, which have a great affect on capital structure, as a control variable The Le and ooi (2012) research is exclusively for the real estate industry, so the findings cannot provide an overview of all sectors in the economy In addition, most of the studies not have the industry’s representative varibale despite its significant impact on the capital structure Furthermore, the variables representing the development of financial markets still have many differences, leading to inconsistent research results Moreover, because of using only single variables without considering different aspects to evaluate the development of financial market, empirical research’s finding cannot provide an overview perception Therefore, there are still many research gaps as well as means of methodology to develop a more complete and sustained study This study uses the IMF's financial market development indicators under all three aspects (accessibility, depth and effectiveness) and a composite index to 13 𝐷𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 0 + 1 𝐷𝑖𝑗𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛼2𝑛 𝐹𝑀𝑛𝑗𝑡 + ∑ 𝛼3𝑚 𝐵𝐶𝑚𝑖𝑗𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑚=1 + ∑ 𝛼4𝑘 𝑀𝐴𝑘𝑗𝑡 + 𝑖𝑗𝑡 𝑘=1 ➢ Dijt (Debt) is the ratio of debt to total assets based on book value (in which debt is divided into cases: total debt - LEVijt, short term debt - SLEVijt and long term debt - LLEVijt) of the enterprise i in country j at time t; Dijt-1 is lagged variable of Dijt; ➢ FMnjt (Financial market) includes n variables representing financial market development of country j at time t, including: Financial Markets Access Index (FMA), Financial Markets Depth Index (FMD), Financial Markets Efficiency Index (FME) and Financial Markets Index (FMI) In which, variables FMA, FMD and FME will be included in the model simultaneously, and FMI will be included in the separate model At the same time, financial market development will be separated into stock market development (including variables: Stock market capitalization to GDP - MACAP and Value of trading shares to GDP - LIQ) and bond market development [including variables: Value of government bonds issued to GDP GOVBOND and Value of corporate bonds (including financial and non-financial) to GDP - CORPBOND], the development of each market will be considered in its own model; ➢ BCmijt includes m variables representing the characteristics of enterprise i in country j at time t, including: Size of the business (in logarithmic total assets - SIZE), profitability (net profit to total assets - ROA), asset nature (ratio of fixed assets to 14 total assets - TANG), growth opportunities (TobinQ index PTB) and industry (dummy variable - IND) Specifically, IND has industries including: Basic Materials (IND1), Consumer Cyclicals (IND2), Consumer Non-Cyclicals (IND3), Energy (IND4), Healthcare (IND5), Industrials (IND6), Technology (IND7), and Utilities (IND8); ➢ MAkjt (Macroeconomics) includes k variables representing the macro economy of country j at time t, including: inflation rate (INF), growth rate of GDP per capita (GDPGR), and quality governance (GOV); ➢ 𝑖𝑗𝑡 is the error How variables are measured, expected signs and data sources are summarized in Table 3.1 Table 3.1: Symbols, measures and expected sign of independent variables Symbols FMA FMD How to measure Synthesized from normalized variables: Stock market capitalization to GDP, value of trading shares to GDP, government bonds issued in the international market to GDP, total value of financial corporate bonds to GDP, total value of nonfinancial corporate bonds to GDP Synthesized from normalized variables: Stock Expecta tions Source - IMF - IMF 15 FME FMI MACAP LIQ GOVBOND CORPBOND SIZE 10 ROA 11 TANG 12 PTB 13 IND market capitalization does not include the 10 largest companies by total capitalization, the number of bond issuers both domestically and internationally Normalized the ratio of total trading value of shares to market capitalization Synthesized from normalized variables: FMA, FMD and FME Stock market capitalization to GDP Value of trading shares to GDP Value of government bonds issued to GDP Value of corporate bonds (financial and non-financial) to GDP Firm size (in logarithm of total assets) Profitability (net profit to total assets) Asset structure (the ratio of fixed assets to total assets) Growth opportunity (TobinQ index) Industry (dummy variable), equals if the industry is - + + World Bank Asian Develo pment Bank + + + +/- Thoms on Reuters 16 considered and in the other case 14 15 16 World Bank INF Inflation rate + IMF Quality of national World GOV + governance Bank Source: Expectations and suggestions of the author GDPGR GDP per capita growth rate + To ensure that survey sample is large enough and representative of the AEC region, the study will use the financial statements of companies listed in countries (including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) have data at Thomson Reuters for the period 2010 2020 Research data is collected in the following specific steps: (1) Eliminate financial institutions (such as banks, financial companies, insurance companies) out of the study sample; (2) Eliminate outliers by removing values less than 1% percentile and above 99% percentile for independent variables (except for macroeconomic variables), and for variables that represent enterprise capital structure, remove observations with total debt to total assets ratio greater than or negative value; and (3) Eliminate businesses with less than years of data After collecting and filtering data according to the above steps, the panel data is unbalanced data for the period 2010 - 2020 as shown in Table 3.2 17 Table 3.2: Number of enterprises per country over the years Year Indon Malay Philip Thaila Vietna esia sia pines nd m Total 2010 299 324 129 330 250 1.332 2011 317 325 132 338 260 1.372 2012 333 341 140 350 265 1.429 2013 340 346 141 368 281 1.476 2014 354 350 149 386 293 1.532 2015 376 359 152 395 332 1.614 2016 415 377 152 409 355 1.708 2017 476 388 153 426 372 1.815 2018 520 400 155 438 375 1.888 2019 551 407 163 439 378 1.938 2020 554 416 163 441 378 1.952 Total 4.535 4.033 1.629 4.320 3.539 18.056 Source: Author's statistics from the research sample 18 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The correlation coefficient results show that the variables representing financial market development have strong or very strong correlation with each other At the same time, the national institutional quality variable (GOV) also has a high and relatively high correlation (r value from 0.7 or more) with most of variables representing financial market development This implies that including GOV and the above variables in a model will cause the results to be skewed However, GOV can be one of the very important factors determining the development of financial markets as well as corporate capital structure Therefore, in addition to considering the overall sample, the thesis will separate the sample into two subgroups, including: Group of countries with high national institutional quality (GOV_HIGH) and group of countries with low national institutional quality (GOV_LOW) based on the median value of GOV The variables representing financial market development will be included in the model in turn, the numbering of specific models is as follows: Models to (with variables representing market development included in turn: FMI, FMA, FMD, FME, MACAP, LIQ, GOVBOND and CORPBOND) consider total debt, models to 16 consider long-term debt, and models 17 to 24 consider short-term debt; Models to 24 are considered on the overall sample Similarly, the model from 25 to 48 corresponds to the GOV_LOW group and the model from 49 to 72 is the GOV_HIGH group The research results show that the size of financial markets in most developing countries is still quite small 19 Therefore, financial markets with an improvement in general or scale in particular will help businesses to issue equity to raise capital, helping to reduce dependence on long-term loans When considering each market separately (stocks or corporate bonds), the expansion of these markets’ size will help businesses reduce the debt ratio (both total debt, short-term debt and long-term debt) For the stock market, this result is quite understandable because enterprises will use equity instead of debt to reduce the debt ratio However, for the bond market, it seems that the impact direction is reversed compared to expectations The reason is that when the corporate bond market is more developed, other markets have followed or developed more strongly (typically in the countries where stock market is more developed than bond market), this helps businesses to raise capital from other sources (such as issuing shares) so the debt ratio should be reduced Moreover, when the efficiency of financial market is improved, the total debt (especially shortterm debt) of enterprises tends to increase This implies that information asymmetry in developing countries may still be one of the dilemmas For this reason, when financial market is more efficient, it will help to make business information more transparent When listing on stock exchange, enterprises must periodically provide information according to the regulations of the Exchange, the vibrant market also makes investors more active in searching for information to find out stocks that are undervalued in order to gain high profits These help reduce information asymmetry, leading to lower loan risk, incentives for creditors to lend more, and lower lending costs, making it 20 easier for business owners to access loans (especially short-term loans) However, as the stock market continues to develop or improve in terms of financial depth, the diversity of goods on the market as well as improvements in the quality of information, corporate supervision and control will attract investors, motivating them to invest in the stock market, making capital flows quickly circulated, creating strong liquidity for the market Therefore, it will be easier to issue new shares and capitalize on surplus capital by issuing shares at market value instead of par value, so the cost of equity will be lower than the cost of loans, encouraging businesses to raise capital by issuing equity At the same time, the quality of national institutions directly affects not only firms' access to capital in the market, but also the relative costs and benefits of debt and equity financing, particularly in developing countries If the country has poor institutional quality, borrowed capital will be less expensive than equity capital Thus, in better-regulated countries, firms rely more on equity issues and reduce their reliance on debt (especially long-term debt) In addition, firm size, return on total assets, ratio of fixed assets to total assets and business growth opportunities (PTB) are factors that affect the capital structure of enterprises However, the impact of PTB on capital structure is very small (nearly insignificant) When enterprises increase total assets, there will be a tendency to increase debt ratio, which is true for both total debt, long-term and short-term debt The reason is that businesses with many assets often have a reputation in the market and have existed for a relatively long time Therefore, 21 those enterprises’ information is more transparent, so they are easier to access loans Enterprises with high profitability will tend to reduce debt use (namely, reducing short-term debt but increasing long-term debt) When enterprises increase the ratio of fixed assets to total assets, there will be a tendency to increase debt ratio (both in short and long term) However, it should be noted that profitability and fixed assets to total assets affect firms only in countries with higher institutional quality, and the impact of profitability is much larger than the ratio of fixed assets to total assets The reason is that businesses have many fixed assets that can be used as collateral for loans, so these businesses can easily access loans (both in the short and long term), thus increasing the debt ratio High profitability shows that enterprises have internal capital to finance their operations, but enterprises still need more long-term loans to expand production and business activities At the same time, countries with stronger institutional quality mean higher quality of contract enforcement, property rights, freedom of speech, political stability, and public services, as well as reduced risk of expropriation and corruption This will enhance the soundness of financial sector and facilitate entry into financial markets – savers are willing to finance companies and thus financial markets will prosper In addition, as the quality of domestic institutions increases, the need for firms to hold cash decreases because whenever they need capital, they will be able to obtain it from markets where there are investors willing to expand their funding channels with more favorable terms This is the reason why the two factors of return and the ratio of fixed assets to 22 total assets have a stronger impact on capital structure in countries with stronger institutional quality The effects of all firm characteristics indicate that capital structure in developing countries supports both the trade-off and pecking order theories At the same time, the firm's capital structure is relatively stable over time and is influenced by industry characteristics As for the macro variables of the economy, the impact of GDP per capita growth rate on capital structure is not very clear The inflation rate causes firms in countries with lower institutional quality to increase their debt ratios (both in the short and long term), but tends to encourage firms in countries with stronger institutional quality to reduce long-term debt ratios 23 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS Both de facto integration and regional agreements within the framework of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) have resulted in increased financial linkages among countries in the region Regional initiatives in financial services liberalization, capital market development and capital account liberalization have also contributed to the regional financial market's deepening development Despite certain limitations of financial markets’ integration in Asia, evidence shows that Asian financial markets have become increasingly integrated over the past three decades, and by the end of 2015, ASEAN countries completed 87% of all measures in the AEC Blueprint to achieve free flow in services and capital (Rillo, 2018) In addition, the results of empirical research show that if financial market develops, enterprises in developing countries in AEC will tend to reduce their debt ratio, especially the longterm debt ratio in developing country having stronger institutional quality However, the improved financial market efficiency increases the debt ratio, especially short-term debt These results show that when the financial market develops (either the stock market or the bond market, especially corporate bonds), it will help reduce the pressure on the banking system significantly Therefore, in order to create favorable conditions for businesses (especially SMEs) to access external capital, promoting the development of financial markets is extremely necessary 24 To promote development of financial markets, it is extremely necessary to provide solutions to improve the quality of national institutions helping reduce information asymmetry in the market and encourage savers to invest in businesses This is the foundation for the development of both stock and bond markets Therefore, laws and regulations must be developed to protect the right to invest in countries and enable investors to more accurately predict the cash flows from a project as this is an important step in investment valuation process Besides, inflation also makes it more difficult to accurately forecast cash flows in long-term investments, so controlling inflation enhances the safety of real returns At the same time, there is a high correlation between institutional investor size (such as mutual funds, insurance companies and pension funds) and capital market size (stocks and bonds markets) This shows how important it is to develop a large pool of important long-term institutional investors to improve not only financial depth, but also market efficiency and liquidity Besides, it is also necessary to implement the following solutions: Promoting the development of bond markets (especially corporate bonds market); Prioritizing policies to promote the development of financial markets; Building and developing derivatives market; Diversifying commodities and promoting liquidity in the market (especially the stock market); Improving products and margin mechanism; Strengthening the management, supervision, inspection and enforcement capacity of state management agencies; Promoting the protection of all investors' interests as prescribed by law; Promoting the training of ethics and talent 25 for brokerage staff; Strengthening the implementation of programs at the national level; Promoting financial institutions to grant credit to businesses (especially SMEs); Diversifing types of assets used as collateral for loans; Applying technology to the credit granting process; Promoting credit guarantee activities; Developing and promoting the form of crowdfunding or venture capital; Promoting the activities of investment, pension and insurance funds The research data also shows that the national institutional quality in Vietnam is the lowest among the five countries At the same time, the impact of factors on capital structure has a relatively large difference between the two groups with different institutional quality, which shows that improving institutional quality is one of the urgent jobs to encourage savers to invest boldly, businesses more easily access external capital and reduce pressure on banking system in providing long-term capital The role of institutions depends largely on the quality of the legal system Therefore, the thesis has proposed a number of specific solutions to Vietnam 26 LIST OF AUTHOR'S PUBLICATION RELATED TO THE THESIS Bich Loc Tram, Van Thuan Nguyen, Van Tuan Ngo, and Thanh Liem Nguyen (2022), “IMF - measured stock market development and firms' use of debt Evidence from developing countries”, The fifth international econometric conference of Vietnam (ECONVN2022), “Topic: Financial Econometrics: Bayesian Analysis, Quantum Uncertainty, and Related Topics”, Asian Journal of Economics and Banking Bich Loc Tram, Van Thuan Nguyen, Van Tuan Ngo, and Thanh Liem Nguyen (2022), “Impact of financial institutions development on capital structure of listed firms in ASEAN developing countries”, The fifth international econometric conference of Vietnam (ECONVN2022), “Topic: Financial Econometrics: Bayesian Analysis, Quantum Uncertainty, and Related Topics”, Asian Journal of Economics and Banking Nguyen Van Thuan, Tram Bich Loc, Nguyen Thanh Liem (3/2021), “The impact of stock market on enterprise capital structure in ASEAN developing countries”, Science & Technology Development Journal - Economics - Law and Management 5(1):1359-1367 Doi: 10.32508/stdjelm.v5i1.729 Van Huy Bui, Van Manh Ha Nguyen, Dang Thanh Minh Tran, Bich Loc Tram, Gia Quyen Phan and Trai Thai Ha Nguyen (1/2021), “Market’s reaction to analytical information from brokerage institutions: Empirical evidence from stock market in Vietnam”, Research in World Economy, Vol 12 No.1 Special Issue 2021 27 Nguyen Van Thuan, Tram Bich Loc, Nguyen Thanh Liem (2020), “Impact of financial markets on capital structure of listed companies in ASEAN countries”, School-level seminar "Orientation for public financial reform in the period 20202025" at University of Finance - Marketing 12/2020, ISBN 978604-79-2625-1, Finance Publishing House Nguyen Van Thuan, Tram Bich Loc, Nguyen Thanh Liem (2020), “The impact of stock market development on capital structure of listed firms in ASEAN countries” International conference “Finance – Accounting for promoting sustainable development in private sector (FASPS 2020)” at University of Finance - Marketing 12/2020, ISBN 978-604-792601-5, Finance Publishing House Duong Thi Mai Phuong, Tram Bich Loc (2019), “Vietnam's business capacity in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)” National scientific conference "Improving the business environment to enhance Vietnam's competitiveness in the 4th industrial revolution" at the University of Finance and Business Administration 6/2019, ISBN 978-604-79-2135-5, Finance – Hanoi Publishing House ... enough and representative of the AEC region, the study will use the financial statements of companies listed in countries (including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam)... depends largely on the quality of the legal system Therefore, the thesis has proposed a number of specific solutions to Vietnam 26 LIST OF AUTHOR'S PUBLICATION RELATED TO THE THESIS Bich Loc Tram,... framework, property rights, etc., (La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer and Vishny, 2000) In addition, Kirch and Terra (2012), Tresierra and Reyes (2018) state that if the quality of investor