I Heiko Hesse (2008) sir dung so lieu gOp dm 99 qu'Oc gia; Anwesha Aditya va Saikat Sinha Roy (2010) sir dung so lieu ctia 65 quOc gia; Arailym Kadyrova (2011) sir dung so lieu cila 88 quoc gia
120000 1200mim Xuat khgu —.—S6 chiing loai mat hang XK —Expon (Xugt khgu)
3.2.2. Mitoi quan he gifra chi s6' tap trung hoa mat hang xuAt khAu Herfindahl va tang trtriimg kinh to
tang trtriimg kinh to
Trong nhung nam qua mire dO tap trung h6a mat hang xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam c6 xu huang thdp dAn. Chi so tap trung h6a mat hang xuAt khAu Herfindahl giam dAn to mac 0,26 nam 1995 xuOng con 0,23 nam 2005, va dat mix 0,21 nam 2011. Neu so voi cac ntroc tren the giad, Viet Nam la nu& co mirc dO da clang h6a trung binh (chi so HI binh quail eila the gigi gian clop 1996-2006 la 0,2). Dieu nay chung to ca cAu mat hang xuAt khAu eila Viet Nam ngay cang doge da clang h6a. Cang voi xu huong giam mire dO tap trung hoa mat hang xuAt kh'Au, GDP ciia Viet Nam CO xu huang tang qua cac nam. Bi6u de) 3.4 cho thAy co mOi tuang quan ngugc chieu gift chi se) tap trung hOa mat hang xuAt khAu Herfindahl va tang truerng kinh te. Cu the la: trong giai doan tir 1995-2005, he se) HI giam 1,15 l'An thi quy mo GDP cilia Viet Nam tang them 2 Van; trong giai doan 2005-2011 he se) HI giam 1,11 lAn thi quy mo GDP dm Viet Nam tang them 1,48 ran.
—*—Herfindahl --GDP —Linear(Herfindahl) 700000 0.27 0.26 — — 600000 0.25 — — 500000 0.24 — 0.23 — — 400000 0.22 — — 300000 0.21 — — 200000 0.2 — R2 = 0.739 — 100000 0.19 — I I I- I 4 I 0.18 F I I I i I 1995 1998 2001 2005 2008 2011
Bie'u di 3.4: Chi so tap trung h6a Herfindahl va GDP ciia Vi4 Nam
Ngu'dn: Tinh toan cua tac gia clva tren sa lieu ctia tang cyc thong ke
MOi quan he ngugc chieu giira chi so tap trung h6a Herfindahl va quy mo GDP dm Viet Nam phan anh da dang hOa mat hang xuAt khAu dOng vai tre tich cue dOi vai tang truang kinh to Viet Nam. Dang chu )"7, n6u so sanh mitt dO tac Ong cua da clang hoa mat hang xuAt khAu den tang truang kinh to gifia cac giai doan cho thdy: trong giai clop dAu da clang hoa mat hang xudt khAu tac dOng den tang truang GDP c6 xu htrang cao han so vai giai clop sau (trong giai clop dAu HI giam 1,15 lAn thi quy m6 GDP tang khoang 2 lAn; con trong giai doan sau HI giam 1,11 fan thi quy mo GDP chi tang 1,48 lan). Dieu nay ham 3"/ rang phuang thirc da clang Ma mat hang xuat khan hien nay ciia Viet Nam mac du van dang dOng vai tro tich cue d'Oi vai tang truang, nhung bOc to nhieu nguy ca gay bat lgi cho tang truang kinh t6 trong dai han.
So sanh \Ted cac ntrac c6 ding trinh dO phat trien vai Viet Nam ding cho thy mOi quan he ngugc chieu Oita chi so tap trung h6a Herfindahl va tang twang. Hay not cach khac da clang h6a mat hang xuAt khAu c6 vai tre tich cgc dOi tang twang kinh te. Nghien ciru cua Heiko Hesse (2008) cho thAy, trong truang hap dm Malaysia va Thai Lan cho thy co xu huang giam mph trong giai doan 1962-2000, ding voi dO GDP binh quan dAu ngugi gia tang manh me. DOng tiled ved do ca cAu mat hang cua hai nuac nay ding chuyen dich sang xuAt khasu cac san phAm cong nghiep the tac hOn hgp (may mac, thiet bi dien dr) va cac san phAm the bien dua tren tai nguyen Wei gia tri gia tang cao han (die bien dAu co, cao sue Malaixia; the bien gao, thily san Of Thai Lan).
12,000 0.2 - 8,000 0.15 0.15 0.05 2,000 - Herfindahl - (mean) rgdpch Herfindahl - (mean) rgdpch Thailand _ 4,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 0 Year 2000 0 0.5 12,000 1 1 0.4 - 10,000 06 -§. 8,000 s c 06 E 6,000 0.4 Chile 0.3 0.2 - • 0 1 - 4,000 0.2 1970 1990 2000 1960 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Uganda t..1,100 1980 Year (mean) rgdpchl Herfindahl - (mean) rgdpch k 1 111 k 1 ',., f -, k I k r \ / I I II / 11 I\ /sq I 1,000 900 cl , 800 E 1- 700 600 ' /
Bieu do 3.5: Mtoi quan he gifra chi soli Herfindahl va tang triarng kinh to ciia Malaixia va Thai Lan
Ngujn: Heiko Hesse (2008) "Export Diversification and Economic Growth"
C6n truang hgp cua Chile dugc coi la mot truang hgp thanh cong dien hinh ye da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau dkra tren tai nguyen. Dip tren lgi the so sanh ye dac diem to nhien nen trong giai doan 1962-2000 Chile da phat trien va xuat khau nhieu mat hang mai nhu rugu yang, ca h6i, trai cay, hoac cac san pham lam nghiep. Nha do nen kinh to tang truang kha trong giai doan nghien dm. Tuy nhien, do thieu yang cac san pham cong nghi'ep cite tac, do do nen kinh t6 gap nhieu rni ro, tang trtfang kinh to thiL on dinh.
Bieu do 3.6: Moi quan he gifra chi so Herfindahl va tang trtHeng kinh to ciia Chile va Uganda
Heiko Hesse (2008) "Export Diversification and Economic Growth"
Truang hap dm Uganda cho thay mot birc tranh da clang han, cac giai doan da clang haa khac nhau. Trong giai doan 1960-1975, co call mat hang xuat khau c6 su da clang h6a (chi so Herfindahl thap), cling yai do nen kinh to tang trtrOng cao. Ngugc trong giai doan 1975-1990, da clang hoa thap (chi so Herfindahl cao), nen kinh t6
tang truang thAp. Dang chit Y, to nhirng nam 1990s tra lai day, ca cau mat hang xuat khau dm Uganda có xu huong da clang him vai nhieu mat hang xuat khau mdi nhu thity san, hoa, trai cay va rau. Cling do, tang trung kinh to co xu huong tang math. Theo nghien ciru cua Bonaglia va Fukasaku, 2003;. Chandra va cong sr, 2007), da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau la yeu tó quy& dinh chinh dem lai sit thanh cong ve xuat khau va tang trung kinh to cita Uganda trong nhang nam g'An day.
Nhu vay, ding giOng cac quOc gia dang phat tri'en khac, da clang Ma mat hang xuat khau la nhan to quan trong thitc day tang trung kinh to Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, Viet Nam cir tiep tvc da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau chit 376u theo chieu rOng nhu hien nay ma khong nhanh chong chuyen sang da dang hoa theo chieu sau thi nen kinh to se gap nhieu rui ro bat On, anh huong khong nho den vi'ec nang cao gia tri gia tang cua cac mat hang xuat khau va tang truang kinh to trong dai han; tham chi con co nguy co can kiet tai nguyen, tac dOng bat lai den phat trien ben yang cita nen kinh