I Heiko Hesse (2008) sir dung so lieu gOp dm 99 qu'Oc gia; Anwesha Aditya va Saikat Sinha Roy (2010) sir dung so lieu ctia 65 quOc gia; Arailym Kadyrova (2011) sir dung so lieu cila 88 quoc gia
4Nhom tac gia nay da tinh toan va chira rang thtrang mai cua Vi't Nam có ink dO tap trung cao hon cua Trung Quoc, Nhat Ban va mot so ntrot ASEAN khac.
Hang the bien hoac da tinh the 32.8% Nam 1995 Hang tho hoac mai sa the 67.2% Nam 2011 Hang the bien hoac tinh the 65.1% Hang tho hoac mai so.
the 34.9%
Mali 0,747 Indonexia 0,129
Malawi 0,599 Malaixia 0,186
Ghana 0,441 Singapore 0,271
Nam Phi 0,156 Thai Lan 0,095
Nguijn. UNCTAD Hand Book of Statistics, 2008
m4c du mire d'6 da dpng hoa mat hang xuat khdu cna Viet Nam i mire trung binh cna the giai, nhung c6 xu huang dugc cai thien qua cac nam. Neu nhu nam 1995, chi s6 HI ciia. Viet Nam la 0,26 thi den nam 2011 dd giam xu6ng chi con 0,21. Day la sir gia tang mire d6 da clang h6a Chung ca gi6 hang Ma xuat khdu dm Viet Nam, bao g6m ca da dpng h6a theo chiau rang va da dpng h6a theo chiau sau. Dan day c6 mgt van de dat ra la xu hudng da dpng h6a theo chiau rgng va da dpng h6a theo chiau sal dien ra nhu the nao. Phdn sau se di sau phan tich nhung chiau cpnh da dpng h6a nay cna gi6 hang hoa xuat khdu cua Viet Nam.
2.2.3. Phan tich da clang hoa dira tren 1ST trong xuat khan san pliant cht Mtn
Da phan tich da clang h6a mat hang xuat khdu theo chiau sau, nhiau ngugi da sir dung chi tieu tY tong xuat khdu cac mat hang cha bin trong tong mat hang xuat khdu. Neu ty trong nay cao, chirng to qu6c gia do co xu hugng chuyan dich sang phat trian cac san phdm cha bi'an, va cac san pham c6 ham lugng cong nghe cao. Hay not each khac, cac mat hang xuat khdu c6 sir da dpng theo chiau sau (vertical diversification). Biau d6 2.7 cho thy c6 su da dpng hoa theo chiau sau trong cdu true mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam. Ty tong cac mat hang cha bin hoac tinh cha trong tong mat hang xuat khau tang tir 32,7% nam 1995 len 44,2% nam 2000 va 65,08% nam 2011.
Bitu do 2.7: Ty trong mat hang cht bin trong ding St, mat hang xuat khautheo bang phan loci tieu chitin ngoai thtrang
Tinh town cita bac gia tir so lieu Tang cyc thong ke
Mac di' co. cau xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam co su da clang h6a theo chieu sau, tuy nhien mire d'() cOn thAp. Ty trong xuAt khAu nhOrn hang the bien hoac tinh the con thAp so \Teri cac nuoc trong khu vuc5, chua dat muc tieu da de ra trong De an phat then xuat khAu giai doan 2006-2010 la 76,7%. Kha nang canh tranh cua nhieu hang hoa xuAt khAu can thAp do gia thanh cao, chAt luting cOn kern, mau ma chua phi' hop vai yeu du thi trugng. Han naa, cac mat hang xuAt kh'Au the bien dm Viet Nam chir yeti van la gia cong, lap rap bang linh kien, phu tiing nhap ngoai nen gia tri gia tang thAp. Tang xuAt khAu mat hang the bien keo theo tang nhap khAu lam tang nhap sieu. Vi phAn lan cac mat hang cong nghiep the bien xuat khAu con phu thugc nhieu vao nguyen phu lieu, may mOc thiet bi va cong nghe cua nuk ngoai. Ty le gia tri gia tang so voi gia tri san luting cua nh6m hang the bien xuAt khAu chi dat muc binh quan khoang 22% va it thay doi trong nhung nam gAy day (san ph'Am d'et: 27%, san phAm g8: 26%, san phAm nhua: 18%, san phAm dien tir: duai 10%)...Neu tinh gia tri gia tang ma Viet Nam dugc hugng thuc to thi tST le nay cOn thAp hon, vi xuat khAu cua cac doanh nghiep FDI chiem khoang 50% kim ngach xuAt khAu, nen c6 mgt phAn khong nho lgi nhulan dugc cac nha dAu to nu& ngoai chuyen ve nugc.
Phan tich chi tiet mirc do da clang h6a theo chieu sau cac san phAm the bien, Juan an sir dung tieu chi phan loai dua tren ham luting khoa hoc cong nghe trong san phAm xuAt khdu do Lall's (2000) de xuAt. Theo do, cac mat hang the bien duce phan thanh 4 nhOm chinh sau: (i) NhOm mat hang xuAt khAu the bien dua tren tai nguyen thien nhien, (ii) Nhom mat hang xuAt khAu the bien co ham luting cong nghe thAp, (iii) Nhom mat hang the biL co ham luting cong nghe trung binh, (iv) NhOm mat hang the biL co ham luting khoa hoc cong nghe cao. Ket qua tinh toan cho thAy, tST trong mat hang the bien dua tren tai nguyen thien nhien va mat hang co ham luting khoa hoc-cong nghe cao co xu huang giam dAn. Doi vai nhOm hang the bien dua tren tai nguyen thien nhien giam tir 64,2% nam 2001 xu6ng 61% nam 2005 va 49,3% nam 2011; cOn nhOm hang co ham luting khoa hoc-cong nghe cao giam tir 3,3% xu6ng 2,1% va 2,9% tuong ung6. Trong khi do, nhom hang c6 ham luting khoa hoc cong nghe thAp va trung binh c6 xu twang tang, tir 2,02% va 18,02% nam 2001 len 3,2% va 34,6% nam 2011 tuong Ung. Thuc to nay cho thAy mac diz cac mat hang xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam co xu huang da clang theo chieu sau, nhung chu yeti din ra a cac nhom hang c6 ham luting cong nghe thAp va trung binh. Hay not each khac mire dg da clang
'Ty trong gia tri xuat khau dm hang ch6 bien trong tong gia tri xuat khau cua In-do-ne-xi-a, Phi-lip- pin va Thai Lan lan luot la: 85,4%, 80,5% va 81,5%
6 TS/ le nay O. theri diem nam 2008 cua Indonesia da la 14%, dia. Trung Qu'O'c la 34%, cua Thai Lan la 30%, dm Han Qt'Sc la 37%, dm Singapore la 57%. 30%, dm Han Qt'Sc la 37%, dm Singapore la 57%.
h6a mat hang xuAt khAu theo chieu sau dm Viet Nam con nhieu han che, chu yeu mad chuyen tit cac san pham filo, so che sang phat trien cac met hang c6 ham lung khoa hoc cong nghe thdp, trung binh, gia tri gia tang khOng cao. Theo nhieu chuyen gia, (Edwards va Alves 2006) vai mire d6 da clang hoa theo chieu sau nhu vey thi kha nang canh tranh caa cac mat hang xuAt khAu se khong duqc cai thien, them chi cOn c6 nguy co tut bac. Boi vi, ty trong nhom hang xudt khdu ham lung cong nghe cao cua the gioi tang trung binh 11,7% nam, trong khi do caa Viet Nam lai co xu huang khong tang, them chi cOn giam trong hon mot thep ky vita qua. Dieu nay se anh huorng khong nh6 den tang truong xuAt khdu trong dai han va su phat trien on dinh cua nen kinh te.
2001
mNhom hang che !Dien Ova tren tai nguyen
• Nhorn hang che Bien ham luvng cong nghe thep
Nhom hang che bier) ham luting cong nghe trung binh
• NHOm hang che bier' ham krong cong nghe cao
Bieu do 2.8: Ty trong ham luvng cong ng14 trong cac mat hang che hien XK
TInh toan cua tac gia tit so lieu thong ke cita UN Comtrade
1\46t cach khac 6 phdn tich su phat trien theo chieu sau la xem xet mitc d6 phirc tap dm mat hang xudt khAu (export sophistication). Day la quan niem dtroc Hausmann, Hwang, Rodrik de xudt trong nhung nam gAy day voi hai chi 56 co ban la: (i) chi s6 PRODY do luOng mirc d6 phirc tap cda mot hoac mot nhom mat hang xudt khdu; (ii) chi s6 EXPY do luOng mirc d6 phirc tap hay nang suet caa ca gio hang hoa xu'at khan ctia mot qu6c gia. Ket qua tinh toan cho they, mirc dO phirc tap chung cua gio hang Ma xu'dt khAu cua Viet Nam co xu huang tang dAn qua cac nam. Chi so EXPY caa Viet Nam nam 2001 la 6134,1 USD, nam 2006 tang len 8275,4 USD va den nam 2011 tang len 10257,9 USD vao nam 2011 (binh quan moi nam tang khoang 400 USD). Su gia tang mix d6 phirc tap nay khong don thuAn phan anh su gia tang v'e
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
ham lugng cong nghe trong cac san pham xuat khau, ma con bao g6m ca su gia tang chat lugng cua cac y'L to khac nhu: marketing, kho van, sir thuan tien ve ca sa ha tang, thong tin, chu'(Si gia tri san pham, chinh sach... Hay not each khac, do chinh la sir gia tang nang suat nhan to tong hgp (TFP) cua cac mat hang xuat khau7.
Bi6u dO 2.9: Min dO pink tap hay 'fang silk dm gin hang hem xuat khan Vqt Nam
Nguon: Tinh toan cua tac gia tir so lieu thong ke cua WB va UN Comtrade
De xem xet sir thay d6i mire d6 phirc tap trong cau true cua gio hang h6a xuat khau, Juan An sir dung he s6 tuang quan hang Spearman d6i vOi chi s6 PRODY cua cac mat hang xuat khau8. Neu he s6 tuang quan hang có xu hu6ng giam clan qua th6i gian, dieu do ham y rang cau true gio hang hoa xuat khau cua Viet Nam co sir da clang hoa theo mire d6 phirc tap cua san pham. K'et qua tinh toan o Bang 2.5 cho thay he so tucmg quan hang giam tir 0,79 nam 2002 xang con 0,67 nam 2006 va 0,57 nam 2011. Dieu nay cho thay cau true mire d6 phirc tap cac mat hang xuat khau dia. Viet Nam có sir thay d6i theo th6i gian.
Hausmann, Hwang, Rodrik (2005); Sanjaya La11, John Weiss va Jinkang Zhang (2005); Pavel Gertler (2006). (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});