Co' can thi trtromg xuat khAu

I Heiko Hesse (2008) sir dung so lieu gOp dm 99 qu'Oc gia; Anwesha Aditya va Saikat Sinha Roy (2010) sir dung so lieu ctia 65 quOc gia; Arailym Kadyrova (2011) sir dung so lieu cila 88 quoc gia

2.1.4.Co' can thi trtromg xuat khAu

3 GDP binh quan d'au ngtrai thAp han 9000 USD, hoc GDP binh quan cau ngtrai tinh theo PPP thAp han 25000 USD

2.1.4.Co' can thi trtromg xuat khAu

Hien nay, Viet nam da co quan he vai hAu het cac qu6c gia va viing l'anh th6 khdp cac chat' 19c tren the giai. Thi truang xuAt khu ding khong ngirng dugc ma r'6ng va da d9ng hoa. S6 lugng thi truong xuAt khu da tang gAp hem 1,4 ran sau 10 nam, tir 160 thi truang nam 2000 len ten 230 thi truang trong nam 2011. Clung vai viec ky ket Hiep dinh thuang m4i song phuang yeti Hoa Ky (BTA), gia nhdp WTO, Viet Nam da" t90 dugc d9t pha ve phat trien thi truang xuAt khAu, dac biet la thi truang Hoa KY (tY tr9ng xuat khu vao thi tnremg Hoa Ky tang tir 7,1% nam 2001 len 18,3% trong nam 2005 va duy tri 6 mirc 19-20% trong giai clop 2006 den nay). Ngoai ra, da giam d'An su le thu'9c vao thi tnremg Chau A, ding c6 thi truang EU, khoi ph9c thi truang Nga va Dong Au, ma rOng thi truang chau D4i Ducmg, khai pha manh me thi tnreng Trung Dong, chau Phi va my Latin.

Mt ve ca cau thi trtrerng xuat khau theo khu vtrc, giai clop 2001-2005, khu vgc

thi trueng chau A da giam dAn ty trong tir 57,3% nam 2001 xu6ng 50,5% nam 2005

A A A ,

song van chiem uu the trong cau xuat khu hang hoa cua Viet Nam. Ty tr9ng xuat khu vao khu v9c thi truang chau Au co xu huang giam nhe nhung gia tri tuyet d6i nam sau van tang va dong gop tren 20% trong tong kim ng4ch xuAt khu dia ca nuac. Trong khi dO, xuat khu vao khu v9c thi twang chau My co su tang d9t bien vao thai kSTnay, tir chi'em tST trong 8,9% nam 2001 da tang len 21,3% vao nam 2005 chil y6u la do xuAt khAu vao thi truang Hoa KY tang manh tir 7,1% nam 2001 len 20,2% nam 2005. Khu vkrc thi truang chau Phi c6 ty trong tang tir 1,2% nam 2001 len 2,1% nam 2005 va tang dugc kim ng4ch xuAt khAu gAp gAn 4 lAn trong giai don nay tir 176 trieu

ASEAN :8_1% :8_1% Khic Nam 2000 :2.6% Nam 1995 1% Hoa 3% CHL8Dirc 4% Trungiau6c 7% b-xtriy-ii-a 8.8% Hoa _ S.:5i • CHLBC(tc Har Qu6c 4% 5.0% TrungctiOc 10.5% HEn Qu6c 2.4% 24% 6-xtray-1 -a N5m 2011 Khic 17.9% :HLECitc I 3.5% -Ian QuOc 4.9% 2.6% Nam 2005 ASEAN o-xt-av-Ii-a 17.7% Han QuOc 2.0% CHLBErc 3.3% Trung QuOc _ 9.9% Kb& 93% 8.4%

USD nam 2001 len 681 trieu USD nam 2005. Ty trong cua khu vgc thi twang chau Dai Duong tang cham va kha an dinh tir 7,1% nam 2001 len 8,0% nam 2005.

Giai doan 2006-2011, din bin thi twang xuat khau hang hoa cua Viet Nam co mat so thay dai nhu sau: Thi truang chau A c6 xu huang giam ty tang tir khoang 50% nam 2005 xuang can 41,48% tang kim ngach xuat khau cua nam 2011. Xuat khau Viet Nam sang chau Dai Duang bin clang manh nhat, sau khi da tang mph vao nhung nam Oita thap ky, lai giam mph trong nhang nam gan day (nam 2010 chi6m 3,74%, nam 2011 chi6'm 2,6% tang kim ngach xuat khau cua Viet Nam). Chau Au va chau My gift thi phan tuong d6i on dinh d khoang 20 - 22% tang kim ngach xuat khau hang h6a cua Viet Nam trong giai clop nghien ciru, trong khi phat triL xuat khau

sang chau Phi dugc cai thien &rig ke nhang nam cuai thap nien 2000.

BiL coo 2.4: Cu ciu thi truirng xuat khiu cua Vqt Nam

Ngujn: Tang cyc Thong ke Xet theo thi trtro'ng mak/Wing leinh tha thi Hoa 1(5/ d'a thay th6 NY* Ban tra thanh

thi tnremg nhap khau lon nhat hang haa xuat khau dia. Viet Nam tir nam 2002 d'L nay. Kim ngach xuat khau hang h6a vao thi tnrang Hoa Ky tang manh giai doan 1995-2011, to 169,7 trieu USD nam 1995 len 16.927,8 trieu USD nam 2011 (gap 99,7 lan), dat tac do

ngAch xuat kh'Au hang hoa ding giai doan, d nuac nay duy tri thi phan a khoang 19 - 20% tong kim ngAch xuat khau dm Viet Nam, k'e ca nam 2009 do anh huang cua khfing hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh t6 toan cau, kim ngach xuat khau sang Hoa KS/ giam sut nhung nuac nay van chiem 19,9% tong kim ngach xuat khau hang hoa cua Viet Nam.

Trung Qu6c wan len tra thanh thi tn.rang nhAp khau lon thir hai doi vai hang hoa xuat khau dm Viet Nam bat dau tir nam 2010 den nay. Xuat khau hang hoa sang Trung Qu6c da tang to 361,9 trieu USD nam 1995 len 11.125 trieu USD nam 2011, dat t6c d'6 tang twang binh quail hang nam la 27,2% giai doan 1995-2011, cao han so Arai t6c d'6 tang xuat khau hang hoa chung cua Viet Nam (20,3%). Diem sang a day la xuat khau sang Trung Qu6c tang lien Arc hang nam tir 2001 den nay ma khong bi giam sut ngay ca khi xay ra khung hoang 2009, va thay the NhAt Ban tra thanh thi twang xuat khau lon thir 2 cila Viet Nam to nam 2010.

NhAt Ban la thi twang nhAp khau lon thir ba cua hang xuat khau Viet Nam. Kim ngAch xuat kh'Au sang NhAt Ban, nguyen la till tnrang lon nhat cua xuat khau hang h6a Viet Nam nhang nam 90 cUa the l(ST truac, van tang deu dAn hang nam va dat 8.467,8 trieu USD nam 2008, tai khi xay ra khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh to toan cau nam 2009 thi giam mAnh xu6ng cOn 6.335,6 trieu USD. XuAt khau sang thi tnrOng NhAt Ban da phuc h6i mph trong nhang nam gay day, nam 2010 dat 7.727,6 trieu USD; nam 2011 dat 10.781,1 trieu USD. T6c do tang xuat khau hang h6a trung binh hang nam sang thi trueng NhAt Ban giai doan 1995-2011 dat 14,8%, chi bang khoang 2/3 t6c dO tang truang xuat khau hang hoa chung. Dieu nay 1ST giai vi sao NhAt Ban khong cOn la till tnrang nhAp khau lon nhAt hang h6a xuat khau dm Viet Nam nib.

Bang 2.3: Cac thi truirng xuat khan hang hoa nhat cua Vqt Nam

Dan vi: Trieu USD

STT QuOc gia 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 1 Hoa KS/ 169,7 286,7 504,0 1065,3 3938,6 5924,0 10104,5 11407,2 16927,8 2 Trung Queic 361,9 474,1 746,4 1417,4 1883,1 3228,1 3646,1 5403,0 11125,0 3 Nhat Ban 1461,0 1675,4 1786,2 2509,8 2908,6 4340,3 6090,0 6335,6 10781,1 4 Han Qu6c 235,3 417,0 319,9 406,1 492,1 663,6 1243,4 2077,8 4715,4 5 CHLB Dirc 218,0 411,4 654,3 721,8 854,7 1085,5 1854,9 1885,4 3366,9 6 Ma-lai-xi-a 110,6 141,6 256,5 337,2 453,8 1028,3 1555,0 1775,2 2832,4 7 6-xtray-li-a 55,4 230,4 814,6 1041,8 1420,9 2722,8 3802,2 2386,1 2519,1 8 Campuchia 94,6 108,9 90,2 146,0 267,3 555,6 1041,1 1166,5 2406,8 9 Vucmg quo Anh c 74,6 265,2 421,2 511,6 754,8 1015,8 1431,3 1329,2 2398,2 10 Inclonexia 53,8 47,6 420,0 264,3 467,2 468,8 1153,2 754,1 2358,9 11 Xin-ga-po 689,8 1215,9 876,4 1043,7 1024,7 1917,0 2234,4 2075,6 2285,7

Ngujn: Tang cyc Thong ke

Xuat khau sang Han Qu6c da dat dugc t6c d9 tang truang an tuvng 26,3%/nam trong giai doan 1995-2011 khien nuac nay vuon len tra thanh thi tnrgng xuAt khau hang hoa 16n tilt to dm Viet Nam hien nay vai kim ngach 4,71 tST USD nam 2011. Cac mat hang xuat khau chu yeu oh Viet Nam sang thi tnrgng Han Qu6c g6m det may, 6 dung ca nhan, thUy san, thuc pham, than da, go va san pham gO, cao su.... Trong do, mat hang det may có t6c d6 tang tnrang cao trong nhUng nam gay day, trung binh khoang 45%/nam. Du kien trong th6i gian tai, xuat khau hang det may sang Han Qu6c se tiep tuc tang truang cao, dua nuac nay to thanh thi trugng lan cua det may Viet Nam sau My, EU va Nhat Ban.

Thi tnrgng xuat khau lan thu nam dia. Viet Nam hien nay la CHLB Due. Day la d6i tac thuong mai quan trgng nhdt dm Viet Nam trong kh6i EU vai kim ngach xuat khau dat 3,36 ty USD nam 2011. Viet Nam dirng tilt 43 trong so cac nuac có trao 6i thuung mai vai Duc. Cac mat hang xuat khau chi' yeti cilia Viet Nam sang thi tnrgng Dix la may tinh va cac san pham dien tir(tang 130% so vai ding kST); san pham ve giay; dien thoai va linh kien, quAn ao va cac san ph'Am may mac.

6-xtray-li-a cang la mgt trong nhang thi tnrgng xuat khau chu yeti cila Viet Nam. Nam 2011, kim ngach xuat khau dm Viet Nam sang Uc dat 2,5 t-.57 USD, giam gan mgt nira so vai nam 2008. Nguyen nhan la do xuat khdu chn y6u cud Viet Nam sang Uc la dAu tho. Chinh vi vay, bat dau to nam 2009 den nay viec giam xuat khau dau tho de phpc vu cho nha may 19c dau Dung Qat da ngay lap tdc lam giam kim ngach xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang Uc.

Cdc thi truemg xuat khau Ian khac dm Viet Nam lAn lugt la Malaysia, Campuchia, vuong qu6c Anh, Indonexia, Singapore. Xuat khau sang cac thi tnrgng nay deu tang manh trong cac nam gan day, dac biet la cac thi trong o cac nuac ASEAN (Malaixia, Campuchia, Indonexia). Cac mat hang xuAt khau chinh cua Viet Nam sang thi tnrgng Malaixia la may vi tinh, san pham dien tir va linh kien, cao su; xuat khau sang thi tnrgng Campuchia la thily san, rau qua, hoa chat, chat deo nguyen lieu, may mOc thiet bi phu tang, day dien va cap dien; xuat khau sang thi tnremg Singapore la dien thoai cac loaf va linh kien, may mOc, thiet bi, phu tung, dau the); con xuat khdu sang thi twang Indonexia chu yeu la gao va dau tho. Mac du Indonexia la till tnrgng xuat khau tan cua Viet Nam, nhung phu thu6c vao 2 mat hang chn yeu la gao va dau tho, nen kim ngach xuat khau cua nuac ta 6 thi tnrgng nay thieu on dInh va ben \Tang.

Nhu vay, thi tnrgng xuat khau cfia Viet Nam da dugc ma rgng, da clang Ma va co cau thi tnrang da CO su chuyen dich tich cuc , Wong 6i phi" hgp vai nguOn hang va nang luc xuat khau cua ta. Viet Nam van duy tri dugc co call xuat khau kha On dinh vai tat ca

cac nan kinh te chi' chat cua the giai nhu Nhat Ban, Trung Quac, Hoa KY, EU va Trung Hong trong suat giai doan nghien ciru. Theo danh gia cua Albaladejo, su da clang va thi tnrang xuat khAu cila Viet Nam dugc tinh diem fat cao, xep thin 2 trong khu wc, chi sau Trung Quac. Dieu nay da gap phAn quan trong dua kim ngach xuat nhap kh'Au hang hoa dm Viet Nam tang mph hang nam, clang tiled cai thien mot buck chAt lugng va hieu qua hog dOng xuat nhap khAu. Phat trien va da clang Me thi truang xuat nhap khau hang h6a thai gian qua khong don thuAn chi coy nghia v'a mat kinh to ma cOn gap phAn quan tong trong viec quang ba, giai thieu hinh anh dAt nuac, san phAm va con ngued Viet Nam ra the giai, thuc dAy hOi nhap quac te, tang cuang vi the dm Viet Nam tren truang quac te.

Tuy nhien, phat trien thi twang xuat khAu van dang chu yeti theo chi'au rang, kha nang phat trien thi truang theo chiau sau con han che. Bi'au hien ro ret la vi the va gia tri gia tang dm hang h6a xuat khAu cila Viet Nam tren cac thi tnrong chii chat cna the giai can rat thAp, dua chu yeu teen khai thac lgi the so sanh. Su chuyen dich co cau thi

twang chua dugc dinh huong tren mot tam nhin dai han (chi) yeu mai chi la su thich

img vai thay &Si cua tinh hinh), chua xay dung dugc mpg lued phan phi trgc flap hang Viet Nam tai cac thi truang chin lugc de bao dam yang chac thi truang dAu ra cho phat trien san xuat hang xuat khAu, nang cao hieu qua xuat khAu, vi vay da nhanh chong bOc 10 nhang diem yeu. Hon nfra, mac da da da dang hoa song viec tap trung qua lam vao mot so thi truemg truyan thong khien cho rui ro va tinh bAt on cua thi twang con cao. BAt chAp nhung no loc da clang hoa va phat trien thi truang mai, thi twang xuat nhap khAu hang hoa dm Viet Nam van tap trung chu yeu vao khu voc chau A \Ted khoang 45 - 50% tang kim ngach xuat khAu hang hoa va 77 - 80% tong kim ngach nhap khdu hang h6a. NhAt la, viec tap trung nhap khAu qua lan vao Trung Quac va cac nuac ASEAN co the anh huang lau dai den viec nang cao nang hrc canh tranh cua nan kinh t6 vi Viet Nam khong flap can dugc cong nghe nguOn. Hien nay, khoang 10% so lugng thi truang xuat khau lan nhat dm Viet Nam dang chiem tai hon 80% kim ngach xuat khAu hang hoa dm ca nuac, cOn 90% so lugng thi truang chi chiem chua den 20% kim ngach xuat khdu hang h6a chung. Co nghia la, mix do tap trung thi truang xuat kh'Au hang hoa dia. Viet Nam con rat cao, lieu nay dat ra yeu cAu da dang hoa manh me thi truang xuat khau. Neu khong, xuat khAu cua Viet Nam co nguy co danh mat thi truang, kho co the phat trien ban yang va duy tri t6c do tang truang cao trong dai han.

S6 6 krq ng c h img loa i m at hang XK 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2.2. PHAN TICH THVC TRANG DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT 'CHAU CUA VIET NAM