RUYỀN DẪN TỶ GIÁ HỐI ĐOÁI VÀO CÁC CHỈ SỐ GIÁ TẠI VIỆT NAM.PDF

฀ ฀ - 2011 THÁNG 12 ฀ ฀ VÀO 2001 - 2011 Chuyên – Ngân hàng M 2011 nh c lu cs ng d góp ý nhi t tình c a quý th y i h c Kinh t Thành ph H Chí Minh, b ng nghi p c h t, - i , dung Tp.HCM, ngày 23 tháng 12 011 1 VAR 1.1 1.1.1 1.1.2 nào? 1.1.3 ? 1.1.4 ? 1.1.5 1.2 14 1.2.1 14 1.2.2 16 1.2.3 17 1.3 18 2001 – Q2.2011 19 2.1 19 2.1.1 2.1.1.1 19 19 21 23 2.1.2 24 2.1.2.1 24 2.1.2.2 26 2.1.2.3 27 2.2 29 2.2.1 29 2.2.2 30 2.2.2.1 31 2.2.2.2 33 2.2.2.3 34 2.2.2.4 35 2.2.2.5 36 2.2.2.6 37 2.3 38 , Q1 2001 – Q2.2011 40 3.1 40 3.1.1 40 3.1.2 42 3.1.3 43 3.1.4 43 3.1.4.1 43 3.1.4.2 n mô hình 45 3.1.4.3 45 3.1.4.4 51 3.1.4.5 53 3.2 54 3.3 54 3.3.1 54 3.3.2 56 3.4 58 3.5 59 61 1: theo 64 : 67 3) 70 4) 74 ADB: Ngân hàng P ADF: Augmented Dickey-Fuller EURO HKD: Hong Kong ICOR: Incremental Capital Output Ratio IRF: Impulse Response Function VAR: Vector Autorgressive Model : 20 2.2: 25 : 29 : 31 : - 2011 34 : 36 : 36 3.1: 44 3.2: 45 3.3: 1% 46 3.4: 50 3.5: 51 3.6: 53 Hình 2.1 : Q1.2001 – Q2.2011 19 Hình 2.2: VND/USD 22 Hình 2.3: 9/2011 23 Hình 2.4: 2001 - 2010 24 Hình 2.5: 25 Hình 2.6: – 2010 26 Hình 2.7: 27 Hình 2.8: Nam, 2001 - 2011 28 Hình 2.9: Hình 2.10: – 2011(E) 29 30 Hình 2.11: 32 Hình 2.12: 33 Hình 2.13: – T7.2011 33 Hình 2.14: 35 Hình 3.1: NEER 47 Hình 3.2: NEER 47 Hình 3.3: NEER 48 63 of Vietnam’s Inflation 2000-2010: Evidence and Analysis”, VEPR Working Paper WP-09 Sims Christopher (1980), “Macroeconomics and Reality” Taylor, John (2000), “Low Inflation, Pass-through, and the Pricing Power of Firms”, European Economic Review, Vol: 44, pp.1389-1408 Vo Tri Thanh, Dinh Hien Minh, Do Xuan Truong, Hoang Van Thanh and Pham Chi Quang (2000), “Exchange Rate Arrangement in Vietnam: Information Content and Policy Options,” East Asian Development Network (EADN), Individual Research Project Vo Van Minh (2009), “Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Its Implications for Inflation in Vietnam”, VDF Working Paper 0902 Zulfiqar Hyder and Sardar Shah (2004), “Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan”, State Bank of Pakistan Working Paper No 5, June 2004 64 PH L C 1: Ph n ng tích l y c a ch s giá v i cú s c thay v l ch chu n c a NEER (th t 1) i1 Accumulated Response of DLNNEER: Period -0.01391 -0.01688 -0.01108 0 -0.02785 0.029367 -0.01856 0.026243 0.016195 0.012128 0.003787 -0.03162 -0.03474 -0.04107 -0.02551 -0.03352 -0.01403 -0.03057 0.019759 -0.01577 0.049246 0.006649 0.027241 0.014479 -0.04819 -0.09928 -0.06157 -0.03051 -0.04236 -0.01792 -0.04056 0.006219 -0.0495 0.084041 0.001001 0.035735 0.007185 -0.13529 -0.14139 -0.12771 -0.07414 -0.06779 -0.04049 -0.05952 0.02902 -0.08479 0.050096 0.033517 0.010099 0.014709 -0.1864 -0.2967 -0.20831 -0.10736 -0.11244 -0.06457 0.007253 0.058546 -0.04955 0.08042 0.029824 0.032454 0.029067 -0.334 -0.52348 -0.40402 -0.22241 -0.22105 -0.10643 -0.00492 0.02112 -0.06194 0.079389 0.012147 0.074195 0.011756 -0.50343 -0.99432 -0.76784 -0.32169 -0.3995 -0.17462 -0.0707 0.007977 -0.07236 0.081755 0.036104 0.032762 0.01441 -0.97026 -2.14606 -1.56833 -0.58856 -0.78371 -0.30296 -0.03265 0.101334 -0.02542 0.109085 0.058584 0.031372 0.026343 -1.95871 -4.35187 -3.44932 -1.05386 -1.15491 -0.57647 -0.03633 0.044852 -0.12793 0.139386 0.020324 0.11228 0.020644 -4.00969 10 -1.93458 -1.01085 -0.5012 0.080402 -0.3253 -0.00012 -0.21664 0.025858 -0.09935 -0.04153 -0.07614 DLNM2 -0.047 DLNGDP -0.01852 DLNOIL DLNNEER DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -3.89603 -9.64128 -7.34098 -2.13845 -2.27517 -1.15867 DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI Accumulated Response of DLNIMP: Period DLNGDP DLNM2 0.002403 0.003728 -0.00047 0.001639 0.008964 0 -0.00205 DLNOIL DLNNEER -0.002 -0.00182 -0.00155 -0.00134 0 0.012764 0.008845 -0.00245 0.008158 0.011808 0.007759 0.000243 -0.00681 -0.00547 -0.00489 -0.00549 -0.00399 -0.00346 -0.00171 n 65 -0.01097 -0.01559 -0.01302 -0.00771 -0.00713 -0.0032 0.023551 0.033797 0.023571 0.017306 0.017803 0.00633 0.003092 -0.02221 -0.03089 -0.0201 -0.01444 -0.01358 -0.00644 -0.00703 0.008356 0.004538 0.038687 0.00452 0.026683 -0.00465 -0.04895 -0.05295 -0.04664 -0.02785 -0.02517 -0.0133 -0.01421 0.029183 0.006061 0.030891 0.013045 -0.00011 -0.00054 -0.06347 -0.10481 -0.07224 -0.03267 -0.03766 -0.0207 -0.01003 0.025872 -0.01677 0.04161 0.010241 0.02486 0.004037 -0.13667 -0.16012 -0.11568 -0.07214 -0.075 -0.03557 0.014039 0.026305 -0.03328 0.029474 0.003627 0.016443 0.007959 -0.19252 -0.31596 -0.2375 -0.10007 -0.15074 -0.04645 0.007378 -0.00257 -0.02813 0.016936 0.008511 0.019962 0.006669 -0.27898 -0.35786 -0.55074 -0.42845 -0.1748 -0.22105 -0.10897 -0.00422 0.025345 -0.01847 0.020048 0.01348 -0.01283 0.003875 -0.67596 10 0.000562 -0.197 0.009508 -0.11063 0.015792 -0.05877 0.011008 -0.04 -0.00867 -0.02229 0.008351 -0.01417 0.010776 -0.74759 -1.17313 -0.81979 -0.38795 -0.2614 -0.17145 Accumulated Response of DLNPPI: Period 0.00748 0.015742 -0.00364 -0.00355 -0.00395 -0.0029 -0.00203 0.007386 0.005458 -0.00883 0.007943 0.013263 0.02479 0.001989 -0.0097 -0.00818 -0.00933 -0.00785 -0.00659 -0.00283 0.016595 0.015566 0.002343 0.012144 0.017473 0.0303 0.006382 -0.01728 -0.02426 -0.01778 -0.01181 -0.01307 -0.00507 0.006678 0.011778 0.005742 0.02587 0.012593 0.043541 0.003464 -0.03665 -0.0395 -0.0356 -0.02335 -0.02385 -0.01067 -0.00462 0.015817 0.00195 0.036901 0.011989 0.040958 0.001776 -0.05256 -0.07119 -0.06035 -0.03019 -0.0378 -0.01617 -0.0046 0.031493 0.000458 0.040985 0.014033 0.045442 0.00486 -0.0928 -0.11457 -0.0962 -0.05607 -0.06843 -0.02673 0.006451 0.024505 -0.0172 0.036603 0.003447 0.059457 0.009002 -0.1242 0.009792 -0.08352 -0.00045 -0.05159 0.002791 -0.03091 0.000275 -0.0204 DLNM2 -0.01097 DLNGDP -0.00421 DLNOIL DLNNEER DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.13799 -0.2042 -0.17002 -0.08581 -0.10851 -0.04014 0.009347 0.007763 -0.01952 0.02513 0.00075 0.058466 0.011185 66 -0.2297 -0.30341 -0.14457 -0.17918 -0.0632 -0.00455 0.009632 -0.02428 0.024127 0.005142 0.043275 0.00943 -0.45123 -0.63264 -0.5132 -0.26701 -0.30554 -0.10793 0.010495 0.022775 -0.02464 0.019898 0.003306 0.033017 0.010815 -0.64592 10 -0.3372 -0.37342 -0.25388 -0.73679 -1.18282 -0.99607 -0.45521 -0.65733 -0.18536 DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI Accumulated Response of DLNCPI: Period -0.00141 -0.00107 -0.00105 -0.00093 -0.00067 -0.00022 0.006148 0.002296 -0.00966 0.002392 0.006755 0.010258 0.004006 -0.00495 -0.00363 -0.00374 -0.00294 -0.00249 -0.00118 0.010751 0.009033 -0.00386 0.006176 0.011824 0.013136 0.005038 -0.00897 -0.00996 -0.00914 -0.00571 -0.00615 -0.00263 0.005654 0.009493 0.000401 0.014056 0.010349 0.017827 0.002918 -0.01649 -0.01877 -0.01632 -0.01001 -0.01129 -0.00476 0.001435 0.016249 0.006757 0.019858 0.009115 0.017849 0.002324 -0.02494 -0.03336 -0.02731 -0.01517 -0.01843 -0.00728 -0.00221 0.019578 0.004806 0.026383 0.006926 0.025763 0.003233 -0.04465 -0.05661 -0.04652 -0.02398 -0.02828 -0.01187 -0.00188 0.016611 -0.0069 0.025471 0.004597 0.029494 0.005402 -0.06632 -0.10045 -0.08721 -0.0378 -0.04585 -0.01912 -4.22E05 0.012064 -0.01518 0.0201 0.005251 0.028535 0.007853 -0.11023 -0.18606 -0.1645 -0.05826 -0.08016 -0.03071 0.00407 0.015458 -0.0186 0.018853 0.003806 0.021974 0.008707 -0.20262 -0.3881 -0.30964 -0.10278 -0.1403 -0.04441 0.010237 0.014759 -0.01388 0.014624 6.94E-05 0.018864 0.007866 -0.34883 10 0.001662 -0.17733 0.004669 -0.0979 0.001882 -0.06839 1.95E-05 -0.04078 -0.00394 -0.02499 0.000321 -0.01698 0.002515 -0.00998 DLNM2 -0.00424 DLNGDP -0.00148 DLNOIL DLNNEER -0.33612 -0.80266 -0.65857 -0.18378 -0.2761 -0.07991 Cholesky Ordering: DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI Standard Errors: Monte Carlo (100 repetitions) 67 PH L C 2: Ph n ng tích l y c a ch s giá v i cú s c thay i1 nv l ch chu n c a NEER (th t 2) Accumulated Response to Cholesky (d.f.adjusted) One S.D.Innovations Accumulated Response of DLNNEER: Period DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.01621 -0.01476 -0.01079 0 -0.02785 0.029367 -0.01856 0.026243 0.016195 0.012128 0.003787 -0.03363 -0.03602 -0.04364 -0.02673 -0.02928 -0.01481 -0.03057 0.019759 -0.01577 0.049246 0.006649 0.027241 0.014479 -0.05567 -0.09907 -0.06485 -0.03396 -0.04304 -0.01782 -0.04056 0.006219 -0.0495 0.084041 0.001001 0.035735 0.007185 -0.14128 -0.14203 -0.13159 -0.07113 -0.0728 -0.03939 -0.05952 0.02902 -0.08479 0.050096 0.033517 0.010099 0.014709 -0.24785 -0.31617 -0.2697 -0.12052 -0.13442 -0.0674 0.007253 0.058546 -0.04955 0.08042 0.029824 0.032454 0.029067 -0.52901 -0.57988 -0.53778 -0.26473 -0.25393 -0.13527 -0.00492 0.02112 -0.06194 0.079389 0.012147 0.074195 0.011756 -1.12058 -1.12223 -1.35557 -1.12848 -0.50891 -0.44144 -0.273 -0.0707 0.007977 -0.07236 0.081755 0.036104 0.032762 0.01441 -2.39034 -0.53632 -0.29243 -0.14634 0.080402 -0.08877 -0.00012 -0.05188 0.025858 -0.01891 -0.04153 -2.50324 -3.1013 -2.48761 -1.1352 -0.84263 -0.61739 Accumulated Response of DLNIMP: Period DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI 0.003728 -0.00047 0.001639 0.008964 0 -0.00207 0.002403 -0.00187 -0.00176 -0.00166 -0.00117 0 0.012764 0.008845 -0.00245 0.008158 0.011808 0.007759 0.000243 -0.00672 -0.00517 -0.00502 -0.00545 -0.00357 -0.00348 -0.00161 68 0.009508 0.000562 -0.01078 -0.0156 -0.0126 -0.00754 -0.00838 -0.00381 0.023551 0.033797 0.023571 0.017306 0.017803 0.00633 0.003092 -0.02177 -0.02896 -0.02332 -0.01266 -0.01535 -0.0071 -0.00703 0.008356 0.004538 0.038687 0.00452 0.026683 -0.00465 -0.04428 -0.0546 -0.04879 -0.02482 -0.02819 -0.01402 -0.01421 0.029183 0.006061 0.030891 0.013045 -0.00011 -0.00054 -0.07767 -0.10752 -0.08594 -0.04311 -0.04445 -0.02372 -0.01003 0.025872 -0.01677 0.04161 0.010241 0.02486 0.004037 -0.17685 -0.16316 -0.20844 -0.1712 -0.0841 -0.07365 -0.04554 0.014039 0.026305 -0.03328 0.029474 0.003627 0.016443 0.007959 -0.35289 0.015792 -0.0965 0.011008 -0.05365 -0.00867 -0.02952 0.008351 -0.01626 0.010776 -0.33311 -0.46651 -0.35567 -0.16758 -0.12855 -0.09514 Accumulated Response of DLNPPI: Period DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.00405 -0.00393 -0.00352 -0.00301 -0.00197 0.007386 0.005458 -0.00883 0.007943 0.013263 0.02479 0.001989 -0.00938 -0.00977 -0.01014 -0.0075 -0.00735 -0.00322 0.016595 0.015566 0.002343 0.012144 0.017473 0.0303 0.006382 -0.01705 -0.0281 -0.02022 -0.0128 -0.0143 -0.00609 0.006678 0.011778 0.005742 0.02587 0.012593 0.043541 0.003464 -0.0361 -0.04632 -0.03931 -0.02286 -0.02652 -0.01219 -0.00462 0.015817 0.00195 0.036901 0.011989 0.040958 0.001776 -0.06012 -0.0896 -0.0738 -0.03712 -0.04081 -0.02055 -0.0046 0.031493 0.000458 0.040985 0.014033 0.045442 0.00486 -0.11821 -0.15749 -0.13875 -0.07193 -0.0693 -0.03752 0.006451 0.024505 -0.0172 0.036603 0.003447 0.059457 0.009002 -0.2578 -0.13728 0.015742 -0.07746 0.00748 -0.0442 0.009792 -0.02728 -0.00045 -0.01252 0.002791 -0.00414 0.000275 -0.22919 -0.32579 -0.27118 -0.13242 -0.11502 -0.07042 0.009347 0.007763 -0.01952 0.02513 0.00075 0.058466 0.011185 -0.52476 -0.49367 -0.69784 -0.57087 -0.28338 -0.22503 -0.15029 69 Accumulated Response of DLNCPI: Period DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.00137 -0.00121 -0.00099 -0.00094 -0.00066 -0.00021 0.006148 0.002296 -0.00966 0.002392 0.006755 0.010258 0.004006 -0.00427 -0.00411 -0.00383 -0.00298 -0.00278 -0.00131 0.010751 0.009033 -0.00386 0.006176 0.011824 0.013136 0.005038 -0.00829 -0.01236 -0.00961 -0.00619 -0.00692 -0.00322 0.005654 0.009493 0.000401 0.014056 0.010349 0.017827 0.002918 -0.0158 -0.0234 -0.01879 -0.01079 -0.01291 -0.00593 0.001435 0.016249 0.006757 0.019858 0.009115 0.017849 0.002324 -0.02736 -0.04208 -0.03365 -0.01733 -0.02043 -0.00993 -0.00221 0.019578 0.004806 0.026383 0.006926 0.025763 0.003233 -0.04984 -0.07458 -0.06109 -0.03096 -0.0324 -0.01751 -0.00188 0.016611 -0.0069 0.025471 0.004597 0.029494 0.005402 -0.11526 -0.09259 -0.14734 -0.11666 -0.05641 -0.05219 -0.03229 -4.22E-05 0.012064 -0.01518 0.0201 0.005251 0.028535 0.007853 -0.22424 0.001662 -0.06317 0.004669 -0.03703 0.001882 -0.02162 1.95E-05 -0.01269 -0.00394 -0.00515 0.000321 -0.0014 0.002515 -0.19442 -0.31451 -0.24099 -0.11186 -0.09263 -0.06626 Cholesky Ordering: DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI Standard Errors: Monte Carlo (1000 repetitions) 70 PH L C 3: Ph n ng tích l y c a ch s giá v i cú s c thay i1 nv l ch chu n c a NEER (th t 3) Accumulated Response of DLNNEER: Period DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNNEER DLNM2 DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.0169 -0.01123 0 0 -0.02785 0.029367 0.02627 -0.01852 0.016195 0.012128 0.003787 -0.03456 -0.04579 -0.03531 -0.02505 -0.03207 -0.01536 -0.03057 0.019759 0.049269 -0.01569 0.006649 0.027241 0.014479 -0.05632 -0.07158 -0.09574 -0.03369 -0.04705 -0.0181 -0.04056 0.006219 0.084113 -0.04938 0.001001 0.035735 0.007185 -0.13905 -0.13848 -0.14451 -0.06707 -0.08022 -0.03671 -0.05952 0.02902 0.05022 -0.08472 0.033517 0.010099 0.014709 -0.23062 -0.2902 -0.30698 -0.11338 -0.13915 -0.06523 0.007253 0.058546 0.080492 -0.04943 0.029824 0.032454 0.029067 -0.48539 -0.60404 -0.59091 -0.24113 -0.26317 -0.13275 -0.00492 0.02112 0.079479 -0.06182 0.012147 0.074195 0.011756 -1.40844 -1.06157 -1.33701 -1.34201 -0.47483 -0.49022 -0.27148 -0.0707 0.007977 0.081861 -0.07224 0.036104 0.032762 0.01441 -3.01953 -0.66528 -0.32787 -0.16177 -0.09552 0.080402 -0.05459 0.025858 -0.01905 -0.04153 -2.54948 -3.05159 -3.05393 -1.0834 -0.89576 -0.6259 Accumulated Response of DLNM2: Period DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNNEER DLNM2 DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -5.97E-05 0.040921 0 -0.00863 -0.00782 -0.00561 0 -0.01247 -0.00747 0.002135 0.035031 -0.01625 0.010061 -0.00708 -0.02625 0.015054 -0.00929 0.010856 -0.01781 -0.02143 -0.01813 -0.01302 -0.01508 -0.00731 -0.0243 -0.0028 -0.00808 0.035204 -0.01279 -0.00945 -0.0035 -0.0468 -0.02672 -0.03472 -0.04954 -0.01724 -0.02477 -0.00992 71 -0.01323 0.00217 -2.47E-05 -0.0595 -0.05955 -0.07628 -0.03018 -0.03915 -0.01842 0.010987 -0.00315 -0.01556 0.00889 -0.02119 0.002501 0.001314 -0.09157 -0.11561 -0.14394 -0.04713 -0.06804 -0.02828 0.012724 -0.02239 -0.04048 0.035061 -0.01979 -0.00458 -0.00088 -0.17488 -0.20929 -0.25118 -0.09242 -0.11895 -0.05193 2.72E-05 -0.01107 -3.98E-02 0.056078 -0.02638 -0.0266 -0.00643 -0.50702 -0.33601 -0.4679 -0.53692 -0.16046 -0.22801 -0.09809 -0.00131 -0.01372 -0.03852 0.057049 -0.0357 -0.02498 -0.00885 -0.9739 0.023449 -0.22711 -0.00179 -0.12171 0.002501 -0.07381 -0.01898 -0.75458 -1.04023 -1.0276 -0.32837 -0.41806 -0.19718 Accumulated Response of DLNIMP: Period DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNNEER DLNM2 DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.00192 -0.00173 -0.00162 -0.00115 0 0.012764 0.008845 0.008162 -0.00244 0.011808 0.007759 0.000243 -0.00509 -0.00574 -0.00443 -0.00339 -0.0035 -0.00158 1.08E-02 0.008351 0.011021 -0.00865 0.015792 0.009508 0.000562 -0.01027 -0.01348 -0.01435 -0.00687 -0.00856 -0.00385 0.023551 0.033797 0.017272 0.023597 0.017803 0.00633 0.003092 -0.02079 -0.02518 -0.02668 -0.01173 -0.01509 -0.00687 -0.00703 0.008356 0.038681 0.004595 0.00452 0.026683 -0.00465 -0.04201 -0.05121 -0.04672 -0.024 -0.02823 -0.01362 -0.01421 0.029183 0.030882 0.006106 0.013045 -0.00011 -0.00054 -0.06674 -0.09242 -0.09355 -0.03797 -0.04666 -0.02146 -0.01003 0.025872 0.041634 -0.01671 0.010241 0.02486 0.004037 -0.18069 -0.09749 -0.05213 0.008964 -0.02867 -0.00047 -0.01623 0.00164 -0.00698 0.003728 -0.00212 0.002403 -0.13319 -0.17998 -0.16361 -0.07182 -0.07778 -0.03785 0.014039 0.026305 0.029522 -0.03324 0.003627 0.016443 0.007959 -0.34814 -0.26494 -0.36798 -0.33716 -0.14025 -0.13959 -0.07323 72 Accumulated Response of DLNPPI: Period DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNNEER DLNM2 DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.00406 -0.00361 -0.00328 -0.00297 -0.00196 0.007386 0.005458 0.007956 -0.00881 0.013263 0.02479 0.001989 -0.01004 -0.01118 -0.00924 -0.00712 -0.0077 -0.00322 0.016595 0.015566 0.01214 0.002361 0.017473 0.0303 0.006382 -0.01764 -0.02259 -0.02699 -0.01154 -0.01457 -0.00601 0.006678 0.011778 0.025862 0.00578 0.012593 0.043541 0.003464 -0.03647 -0.04315 -0.04302 -0.02212 -0.0272 -0.01187 -0.00462 0.015817 0.036898 0.002004 0.011989 0.040958 0.001776 -0.0604 -0.08207 -0.08322 -0.03311 -0.04474 -0.01872 -0.0046 0.031493 0.040985 0.000518 0.014033 0.045442 0.00486 -0.11235 -0.15281 -0.14257 -0.06042 -0.07442 -0.03261 0.006451 0.024505 0.036628 -0.01715 0.003447 0.059457 0.009002 -0.33131 -0.21809 -0.30431 -0.29089 -0.11269 -0.12663 -0.06107 0.009347 0.007763 0.025159 -0.01949 0.00075 0.058466 0.011185 -0.68223 -0.1658 0.015742 -0.0899 0.00748 -0.04769 -0.00043 -0.02812 0.009792 -0.01295 0.002791 -0.00422 0.000275 -0.46274 -0.64375 -0.60988 -0.23296 -0.23441 -0.12798 Accumulated Response of DLNCPI: Period DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNNEER DLNM2 DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI 0.001882 0.004669 0.001662 -0.00133 -0.00127 -0.0011 -0.00091 -0.00067 -0.00021 0.006148 0.002296 0.002406 -0.00966 0.006755 0.010258 0.004006 -0.00411 -0.00443 -0.00384 -0.00277 -0.00286 -0.00124 0.010751 0.009033 0.006181 -0.00385 0.011824 0.013136 0.005038 -0.00787 -0.01029 -0.0116 -0.00559 -0.00699 -0.00304 0.005654 0.009493 0.014055 0.000422 0.010349 0.017827 0.002918 -0.02241 -0.00394 -0.01288 2.52E-05 -0.00529 0.000321 -0.00141 0.002515 -0.01555 -0.02013 -0.02095 -0.0098 -0.01303 -0.00565 0.001435 0.016249 0.019848 0.006786 0.009115 0.017849 0.002324 73 -0.03869 -0.01575 -0.02129 -0.00906 -0.00221 0.019578 0.026376 0.004845 0.006926 0.025763 0.003233 -0.04777 -0.06757 -0.06303 -0.02708 -0.03501 -0.01506 -0.00188 0.016611 0.025481 -0.00686 0.004597 0.029494 0.005402 -0.08612 -0.13228 -0.11848 -0.04944 -0.05973 -0.02674 -4.22E-05 0.012064 0.020122 -0.01515 0.005251 0.028535 0.007853 -0.27096 -0.03624 -0.13342 -0.03661 -0.06926 -0.02698 -0.16495 -0.27217 -0.23502 -0.0975 -0.10758 -0.05109 Cholesky Ordering: DLNOIL DLNGDP DLNNEER DLNM2 DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI Standard Errors: Monte Carlo (1000 repetitions) 74 PH L C 4: Ph n ng tích l y c a ch s giá v i cú s c thay i1 nv l ch chu n c a NEER (th t 4) Accumulated Response of DLNNEER: Period DLNOIL DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNGDP DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.01634 -0.01173 0 0 -0.02785 -0.00728 0.034951 0.024921 0.016195 0.012128 0.003787 -0.03486 -0.04885 -0.02856 -0.02477 -0.03089 -0.01517 -0.03057 -0.00798 0.054081 0.008709 0.006649 0.027241 0.014479 -0.09898 -0.0758 -0.03939 -0.03349 -0.04546 -0.01889 -0.04056 -0.04431 0.08708 -0.00237 0.001001 0.035735 0.007185 -0.14436 -0.16412 -0.09685 -0.07087 -0.07867 -0.03886 -0.05952 -0.06956 0.064307 0.039596 0.033517 0.010099 0.014709 -0.30207 -0.30811 -0.14603 -0.11952 -0.13886 -0.06411 0.007253 -0.02629 0.097831 0.045697 0.029824 0.032454 0.029067 -0.49156 -0.62385 -0.31097 -0.26088 -0.26887 -0.13233 -0.00492 -0.05084 0.087917 0.016467 0.012147 0.074195 0.011756 -1.25516 -1.03301 -1.25857 -0.59056 -0.50881 -0.48506 -0.24823 -0.0707 -0.06516 0.087654 0.007421 0.036104 0.032762 0.01441 -2.66351 -0.60482 -0.306 -0.14501 -0.08799 0.083996 -0.04996 0.008818 -0.01844 -0.04153 -2.02226 -2.71645 -1.30132 -1.10246 -1.01162 -0.55155 Accumulated Response of DLNGDP: Period DLNOIL DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNGDP DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI 0.000798 0.002639 0 -0.0006 -0.00054 -0.00035 0 0.002025 0.000967 -0.00033 -0.00018 -0.00115 0.001234 -0.00053 -0.00212 0.001014 -0.00072 0.002697 -0.00147 -0.00198 -0.00123 -0.00106 -0.00133 -0.00062 0.00108 0.003977 -0.00246 4.20E-05 -0.0019 -0.00236 -0.00089 -0.00381 -0.00411 -0.00297 -0.00187 -0.00162 -0.00204 -0.00081 75 -0.00315 -0.00161 -0.00102 -0.00665 -0.00569 -0.00399 -0.00317 -0.00378 -0.00172 -0.00031 0.002164 -0.00332 -6.34E-05 -0.00386 -0.00472 -0.00104 -0.01303 -0.01048 -0.00665 -0.00525 -0.00672 -0.00256 0.002015 0.002754 -0.00698 -0.00101 -0.00395 -0.00513 -0.00105 -0.02144 -0.02008 -0.01275 -0.01066 -0.01161 -0.00518 0.001373 0.002022 -0.0089 -0.00176 -0.00476 -0.0069 -0.00174 -0.04502 -0.04207 -0.03979 -0.02414 -0.02118 -0.0216 -0.00926 0.003441 0.004694 -0.01003 -0.00172 -0.00512 -0.00974 -0.00179 -0.09386 -0.00042 -0.02232 -0.00263 -0.01197 0.003006 -0.00659 0.001036 -0.085 -0.08454 -0.049 -0.04554 -0.04024 -0.01952 Accumulated Response of DLNIMP: Period DLNOIL DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNGDP DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.00202 -0.00195 -0.0017 -0.00118 0 0.012764 0.000753 0.010456 0.006395 0.011808 0.007759 0.000243 -0.0053 -0.00616 -0.00408 -0.0034 -0.0036 -0.00162 0.010776 -0.00525 0.013671 0.007181 0.015792 0.009508 0.000562 -0.01467 -0.01513 -0.00881 -0.00739 -0.00845 -0.004 0.023551 0.033791 0.02339 0.017563 0.017803 0.00633 0.003092 -0.02631 -0.03024 -0.01741 -0.0129 -0.01573 -0.00744 -0.00703 0.007144 0.038848 -0.00519 0.00452 0.026683 -0.00465 -0.04422 -0.06098 -0.03356 -0.02501 -0.03082 -0.01447 -0.01421 0.015764 0.03689 0.015274 0.013045 -0.00011 -0.00054 -0.08209 -0.11283 -0.05716 -0.04381 -0.05165 -0.02584 -0.01003 -0.0068 0.048531 0.016741 0.010241 0.02486 0.004037 -0.19219 -0.14072 -0.21975 -0.10503 -0.07717 -0.08749 -0.04811 0.014039 -0.02216 0.038683 0.026101 0.003627 0.016443 0.007959 -0.38769 -0.10181 -0.05683 0.008964 -0.03011 0.003031 -0.01712 0.002629 -0.00707 0.000842 -0.00201 0.002403 -0.26659 -0.44736 -0.20657 -0.15644 -0.16281 -0.09951 Accumulated Response of DLNPPI: 76 Period DLNOIL DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNGDP DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI -0.00413 -0.00365 -0.00325 -0.00303 -0.00192 0.007386 -0.0064 0.009968 0.005521 0.013263 0.02479 0.001989 -0.01027 -0.01182 -0.0078 -0.00721 -0.00768 -0.00333 0.016595 0.007574 0.015618 0.009695 0.017473 0.0303 0.006382 -0.02853 -0.02549 -0.01454 -0.01249 -0.01483 -0.00632 0.006678 0.009456 0.027389 0.001196 0.012593 0.043541 0.003464 -0.04273 -0.05299 -0.03074 -0.02368 -0.02695 -0.01304 -0.00462 0.007291 0.039423 0.002885 0.011989 0.040958 0.001776 -0.07775 -0.09941 -0.05065 -0.03865 -0.04782 -0.02222 -0.0046 0.011304 0.047739 0.016279 0.014033 0.045442 0.00486 -0.12737 -0.19087 -0.08974 -0.07229 -0.08092 -0.04042 0.006451 -0.00768 0.043411 0.017106 0.003447 0.059457 0.009002 -0.30027 -0.23665 -0.37428 -0.16749 -0.13702 -0.14641 -0.07876 0.009347 -0.01564 0.028114 0.006153 0.00075 0.058466 0.011185 -0.62 -0.15007 0.015742 -0.08296 0.00748 -0.0455 -0.00018 -0.02737 0.010175 -0.01259 0.000546 -0.00418 0.000275 -0.44615 -0.77896 -0.32631 -0.27859 -0.27483 -0.16691 Accumulated Response of DLNCPI: Period DLNOIL DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNGDP DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI 0.001882 0.004669 0.001662 -0.00126 -0.0011 -0.00102 -0.00093 -0.00064 -0.0002 0.006148 -0.00827 0.003879 0.004563 0.006755 0.010258 0.004006 -0.00439 -0.00445 -0.00321 -0.00294 -0.00295 -0.00126 0.010751 -0.0005 0.00875 0.007602 0.011824 0.013136 0.005038 -0.01257 -0.01187 -0.00702 -0.0061 -0.00703 -0.00317 0.005654 0.003654 0.015993 0.004327 0.010349 0.017827 0.002918 -0.02287 0.001585 -0.01285 0.000499 -0.00502 -0.00359 -0.00139 0.002515 -0.02122 -0.02465 -0.01409 -0.01114 -0.01302 -0.00623 0.001435 0.011952 0.022747 0.006618 0.009115 0.017849 0.002324 -0.03928 -0.03506 -0.0469 -0.02463 -0.01891 -0.02211 -0.0107 77 0.030091 0.008365 0.006926 0.025763 0.003233 -0.05893 -0.08794 -0.04288 -0.03333 -0.03679 -0.01937 -0.00188 -0.00074 0.029581 0.009831 0.004597 0.029494 0.005402 -0.14149 -0.10397 -0.17581 -0.07969 -0.06355 -0.0649 -0.03869 -4.22E-05 -0.01008 0.024034 0.010039 0.005251 0.028535 0.007853 -0.29242 0.01127 -0.07249 -0.00221 -0.19479 -0.37004 -0.15572 -0.12874 -0.11701 -0.08182 Cholesky Ordering: DLNOIL DLNM2 DLNNEER DLNGDP DLNIMP DLNPPI DLNCPI Standard Errors: Monte Carlo (1000 repetitions) ... “truy n d n t giá h i ph n tr m i c a ch s giá n c t giá h i danh ngh a thay m t ph n tr m” Các ch s giá n i c bao g m ch s giá nh p kh u, ch s giá s n xu t ch s giá tiêu dùng N u t giá h i thay... v tác ng c a cú s c bên (cú s c giá d u, cú s c t giá cú s c ch s giá nh p kh u ngo i tr giá d u) n chu i ch s giá (ch s giá nh p kh u, ch s giá s n xu t ch s giá tiêu dùng) c a khu v c s d ng... c a t giá h i n giá thành s n xu t giá bán l n 2.1.2 T giá h i ch s giá 2.1.2.1 Vi t Nam m t n c l thu c l n vào nh p kh u ánh giá m c ph thu c hàng nh p kh u c a m t qu c gia, t s t ng giá tr