Tom tat la tieng anh nghiên cứu tác Động của logistics Đối với xuất khẩu hàng hóa của việt nam

The pressing issues currently confronting Vietnam are: 1 Identifyand analyze the factors of logistics affecting Vietnam's goods exports; 2 Measure the extent to which logistics impacts V

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY

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SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL THESIS

RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF LOGISTICS ON

VIETNAM’S GOODS EXPORTS

Major: International Economics

LE MINH TRAM

Hanoi, 2024

The thesis was completed at Foreign Trade University

Supervisor: Assoc Prof Dr Tran Thi Ngoc Quyen

Reviewer 1: ………

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Reviewer 2: ………

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Reviewer 3: ………

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The thesis will be defended before the School-level Thesis Evaluation Council meeting at ………

on………

The thesis can be found at the National Library and Foreign Trade University’s library

INTRODUCTION

1 The rationale of the thesis

For Vietnam, robust export growth is a key factor in driving GDP expansion, fostering industrial development, generating employment, and increasing foreign exchange earnings Consequently, Vietnam has transformed from a developing economy into one of the most dynamic nations in the East Asia-Pacific region (The World Bank in Vietnam, 2024), ranking 21st globally in export volume and capacity in 2022 (Minh Tien, 2023) Thus, exportation is considered a strategic avenue for contributing to the modernization of our country's industrial sector However, in the current context, where traditional drivers of export growth are no longer optimal, Vietnam needs to proactively seek new approaches to enhance the competitiveness of its exports specifically, and national competitiveness more generally

However, deep and extensive international economic integration not only presents opportunities but also poses significant competitive challenges for Vietnamese goods in the global market In this context, to improve the efficiency of resource utilization and promote export growth, enterprises should concentrate on core activities Non-core activities that do not provide a competitive advantage should be outsourced to specialized service providers, including those offering logistics services that support export operations According to reports from the WB and the National Committee for International Economic Cooperation, the three interrelated pillars of national competitiveness are: (i) transportation infrastructure and logistics services; (ii) legal frameworks for import and export; and (iii) the organization of the production value chain (Victoria Kwakwa, 2013) The national logistics system is defined by its core components, which include transportation infrastructure, legal frameworks for logistics, logistics service providers (LSPs), and customers utilizing these services, including exporting businesses (Banomyong, R., 2008), Trinh Thị Thu Huong et al., 2019) It follows that the national logistics system plays a crucial role in enhancing the competitiveness of exported goods by reducing time and costs, facilitating the international flow of goods, and thereby promoting export growth In practice, since Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the national logistics system has undergone significant improvements and changes, positively influencing export activities and thus promoting the growth of Vietnam's merchandise exports However, the Vietnamese logistics system continues to face numerous issues and deficiencies that have hindered the development

of the logistics service sector, which, in turn, has obstructed the expansion of merchandise exports The pressing issues currently confronting Vietnam are: (1) Identifyand analyze the factors of logistics affecting Vietnam's goods exports; (2) Measure the extent to which logistics impacts Vietnam's goods exports in relation to various factors; (3) Analyze the specific aspects of Vietnam’s goods exports where the impacts of logistics result in significant outcomes

Research addressing the aforementioned questions serves as a foundation for developing analytical frameworks and policy recommendations aimed at enhancing logistics to support the export

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growth of Vietnamese goods Therefore, the author has chosen to undertake the doctoral thesis titled

"Research on the Impact of Logistics on Vietnam's Goods Exports" to determine how logistics affects Vietnam's merchandise exports, this research examines the components of logistics leading to this impact, the significance of each components, and the aspects of merchandise exports that reflect the key results of this impact Based on these findings, the thesis proposes appropriate, targeted, and coherent solutions These solutions should aim to both optimize and capitalize on the current promoting impacts of logistics, while reducing and addressing its obstructive effects The ultimate goal is to develop logistics strategies that support and facilitate the flow of Vietnamese export products to global markets

2.1 Research Objectives

The research aims to analyze and assess both the qualitative and quantitative effects of logistics

on Vietnam's goods exports Based on this analysis, the thesis proposes several policy implications for logistics development to enhance Vietnam's goods exports

2.2 Research Tasks

To address the research objectives, this thesis will undertake the following specific tasks: First, a systematic literature review will be conducted to identify existing knowledge and research gaps in the field of logistics impacts on goods exports This review will enable the thesis to precisely define its research direction and approach to achieve the stated objectives

Second, a theoretical framework will be developed, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative analysis, to assess the impact of logistics on goods exports

Third, this framework will be empirically applied to the Vietnamese context, using data from

2007 to 2023 The analysis will focus on examining the current situation and assessing the impact of logistics in terms of its factors, the extent of its effects, and the significant results reflecting its influence

on various aspects of goods exports

Finally, the thesis will analyze policy orientations and implications for logistics development

to support export promotion, aligned with the global and Vietnamese economic contexts, as well as the viewpoints, goals, and orientations for developing goods exports and logistics services of Vietnamese government Additionally, the thesis will provide recommendations for relevant stakeholders, including logistics associations, LSPs, and Vietnamese goods exporting enterprises

specifically examining how the development of Vietnam's national logistics system impacts goods exports To answer this question, the thesis analyzes and measures the impact of key components in the national logistics system on Vietnam's merchandise exports, while also examining the key outcomes that reflect the impact of logistics on various aspects of goods exports With the approach outlined above, the two primary research subjects of this thesis are the national logistics system and goods exports The analysis will examine both the inputs and outputs of the national logistics system Inputs include infrastructure, legal frameworks, and service quality, while outputs encompass the cost, time, and reliability of logistics services provided to users within the national logistics system In the field of goods exports, the primary users of logistics services are exporting enterprises Regarding goods exports, the thesis will analyze the impact of logistics on key export indicators, including time and costs, throughput and transport capacity, total export value, commodity composition, and market structure Scope of research space: This research leverages data on Vietnam's exports to its top 80 markets, representing 94-96% of total export value It also examines the current state of improvements

or limitations of Vietnam's national logistics system and their impact on goods exports

Scope of research period: The thesis employs a longitudinal analysis spanning from 2007 to the end of 2023 and the first half of 2024, and then proposes key policy implications and recommendations through 2030

This thesis employs a dialectical materialist approach, adhering to the principles of objectivity, historicity, and the comprehensive nature of the impact of logistics on Vietnam's goods exports 4.2 Analytical framework

Figure 0.1 Analytical framework of thesis

(Source: Compiled by the author)

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Qualitative research methods: include systematization, classification, descriptive statistics, modeling, comparative analysis, deduction, induction, analysis and synthesis The aforementioned methods are applied throughout the entire thesis

Quantitative research methods: the thesis constructs a quantitative analytical framework to assess the impact of logistics on Vietnam's goods exports and proposes seven quantitative models based

on the Gravity Model of International Trade Subsequently, through descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, regression analysis, post-regression model testing, and model selection testing, the thesis identifies the optimal regression model for evaluating the extent to which logistics impacts exports through various components of Vietnam's national logistics system

Data Collection: This thesis relies on secondary data from books, research papers, and statistical databases of the following sources: UN Comtrade, World Bank, CEPII Geodist (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales sur l'Economie Mondiale), General Statistics Office, General Department of Customs, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Center for WTO and International Trade – VCCI

5.1 Theoretical Contributions

Frist, this thesis examines and synthesizes a wide range of domestic and international research

on the influence of logistics on merchandise exports at national, sectoral, and enterprise levels Through this analysis, it identifies an appropriate research pathway that aligns with the thesis’s objectives, tasks, and scope, thereby offering fresh perspectives and addressing specific gaps within the existing body of knowledge

Second, the thesis organizes and clarifies core theoretical concepts related to exports, logistics, and the effects of logistics on a country’s merchandise exports The thesis elaborates on the key components, conceptual structures, and evaluation frameworks that define a national logistics system Third, the thesis constructs both qualitative and quantitative frameworks to assess the role of logistics in a nation’s merchandise export performance By identifying the logistics factors that influence exports and quantifying their impacts via the gravity model of international trade, it highlights logistics’ multidimensional impact, including aspects such as cost, time, transportation capacity, market expansion, and product diversification

5.2 Practical Contributions

Frist, applying the qualitative framework and quantitative model to Vietnam, the thesis evaluates the impact of key components of Vietnam’s logistics system on its merchandise exports over the period from 2007 to 2023 It validates hypotheses and models to conclude how various logistics factors - measured by the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and its six sub-indicators (infrastructure, customs, logistics competence and quality, international shipments, tracking and tracing, and

timeliness) - affect export activities The findings enable the thesis to rank these factors by significance, analyze root causes, and propose actionable recommendations to improve logistics and enhance Vietnam’s export competitiveness.

Second, based on the study’s findings, it puts forward specific policy recommendations for the government and regulatory bodies to optimize the national logistics system and facilitate exports Simultaneously, it offers targeted recommendations for LSPs and associations to enhance service quality, as well as advice for exporters to improve the efficiency of outsourcing logistics services.

Third, the study provides a valuable reference for researchers, policymakers, and enterprises, offering a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between logistics and merchandise exports in Vietnam It also presents methodologies for qualitative and quantitative analysis, forming a foundation for further study across various levels of analysis (national, sectoral and enterprise levels)

6 Structure of the thesis

The thesis is structured into four chapters as follows:

Chapter 1: Literature Review on the impacts of logistics on Goods Exports

Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework and Model for Assessing the Impacts of Logistics on Goods Export

Chapter 3: Analysis and Evaluation of the Impacts of Logistics on Vietnam's Goods Exports Chapter 4: Strategic Directions and Policy Implications for Enhancing Logistics to Support Vietnam's Goods Exports

CHAPTER 1: LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE IMPACTS OF LOGISTICS

ON GOODS EXPORTS 1.1 An overview of research on the impacts of logistics on goods exports

1.1.1 National level

Research on the impact of logistics on merchandise exports initially adopted qualitative approaches during the early 21st century Over the past two decades, however, macro-level studies have increasingly relied on quantitative methods A review of the literature indicates that the gravity model of international trade is widely used to evaluate the role of logistics in international trade and exports at the national level Findings consistently reveal the following: (i) High-performing logistics systems facilitate international trade and enhance export competitiveness; (ii) Poor logistics performance creates barriers to trade; (iii) Enhancing the quality of logistics services has a positive impact on trade and exports; (iv) Logistics costs, including transportation, are critical to overall trade costs In Vietnam, two notable studies have directly assessed the impact of logistics on merchandise exports using the LPI: (1) Le Duc Nha (2018) explored the overall LPI's influence on Vietnam’s export

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turnover but did not delve into its sub-indicators; (2) In contrast, Pham Ho Ha Tram and Dinh Tran Thanh My (2021) examined both the overall LPI and its sub-indicators in relation to export turnover 1.1.2 Sectoral level

Sectoral-level research on logistics' impact remains underdeveloped and has only recently attracted attention Two key Vietnamese studies include: (1) Ngo Thi Tuyet Mai and Nguyen Bich Ngoc (2019), which employed the LPI and trade facilitation indicators to assess logistics’ role in facilitating non-agricultural exports; (2) Le Duc Nha (2022), which used the gravity model to highlight logistics’ contribution to Vietnam’s seafood export growth Despite these advancements, logistics’ influence at the sectoral level remains underexplored, necessitating further research

1.1.3 Enterprise level

Similarly, at the enterprise level, limited attention has been paid to evaluating logistics' direct impact on export business operations, with most studies focusing instead on its role in general production and business management

Second, at the sectoral level, the number of studies remains limited globally Recent research has primarily focused on specific commodities, such as textiles, soybeans, and crude energy In Vietnam, only a few recent studies have examined the impact of logistics on non-agricultural and seafood exports During the investigation of this topic, the author examined the impact of logistics on Vietnam's textile and garment exports However, at this level, the author has not come across any studies that offer a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the impact of logistics on different

categories of goods, specifically examining the underlying causes and results across various aspects of each export industry This gap is particularly notable given that each industry has distinct characteristics, which result in differing logistics needs and, consequently, varying impacts of logistics

Third, research on this issue at the enterprise level remains largely unexplored Existing studies, both globally and in Vietnam, have predominantly focused on the impact of logistics on overall business performance rather than specifically examining its effect on export performance To date, no studies within the scope of the author's review have directly assessed the impact of logistics on the export performance of exporting enterprises

1.3 Research focus of the thesis

This thesis aims to address these gaps by focusing on the national level impact of logistics on goods exports in Vietnam It will explore the underlying mechanisms, evaluate the impact using quantitative methods, and contribute to the existing literature

CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND QUANTITATIVE MODEL FOR

ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF LOGISTICS ON GOODS EXPORT

2.1 Some basic concepts related to goods exports

2.1.1 Concept of goods exports

Merchandise exports refer to "the movement of goods beyond Vietnam’s borders or into designated customs areas within the territory, as defined by law" (Clause 1, Article 28, Commercial Law 2005) From an economic perspective, this encompasses the sale of goods produced, processed,

or recycled in Vietnam to international markets for profit

2.1.2 Export value

Export value is a metric that quantifies the total value of exported goods within a specific period, often quarterly or annually, serving as a key indicator of export growth

2.1.3 Export product and market structure

Export product structure represents the composition of goods within total export turnover, categorized by product groups and their respective shares

Export market structure denotes the distribution of export destinations and their contributions

to total export turnover

2.2 Overview of logistics, logistics services, and national logistics system

2.2.1 Logistics

As defined by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), logistics involves “planning, implementing, and controlling the efficient and effective flow of goods, services, and information from origin to consumption to meet customer requirements”(Darja K, et al., 2014) 2.2.2 Logistics service

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Logistics services include activities aimed at optimizing production and business processes, such as sourcing, production, and consumption These services, offered by logistics service providers, significantly influence the operational efficiency of client businesses (Tran Si Lam et al.,2019) 2.2.3 National logistics system

This section presents the fundamental theoretical concepts of the national logistics system Regarding the components of a national logistics system, they include logistics infrastructure, the regulatory framework for logistics, LSPs, and logistics service users Among these, the first three factors are considered to reflect the input capacity, while the final factor is related to the output effectiveness of the national logistics system The development of a national logistics system depends on the capacity

of its input factors, namely: whether the country's logistics infrastructure is adequate and modern, whether the legal framework for logistics operations is complete and transparent, and whether the capacity and quality of logistics services provided by domestic enterprises are good However, input capacity affects the output of the national logistics system, as improvements in input capacity help ensure that the flow of goods for logistics service users is optimized in terms of time, cost, and reliability, increasing the output efficiency of the logistics system Conversely, underdeveloped input capacity of the logistics system will reduce the output efficiency of the national logistics system Improved output efficiency of the national logistics system will stimulate the demand for outsourced logistics services from customer enterprises, as outsourcing offers more benefits than self-provisioning logistics activities Increased demand for logistics services from customer enterprises, in turn, promotes the development of the national logistics system Therefore, the four components of the national logistics system can be considered both necessary and sufficient conditions for the development of a country's logistics

Thus, evaluating the capacity of a national logistics system is equivalent to evaluating the development of a country's logistics To conduct such an evaluation, it is necessary to assess the capacity of input factors (in terms of infrastructure, legal framework, and the capacity and quality of logistics services), as well as the efficiency of output factors (in terms of time, cost, and reliability) of the national logistics system

Meanwhile, the WB's International LPI is divided into two groups, as illustrated below:

Figure 2.2 Input and outcome LPI indicators

(Source: WB, 2023) Comparing the components of the national logistics system with the LPI indicators, we see a strong correlation between the input capacity of the national system and the first three input LPI indicators, and between the output efficiency of the national logistics system and the last three output LPI indicators This relationship can be modeled as follows:

Figure 2.3 The relationship between the national logistics system and the LPI indicators

(Source: Compiled by the author) 2.3 Theoretical framework for the impacts of logistics on goods exports

2.3.1 Qualitative analysis framework

A national logistics system with good input capacity and optimal output efficiency in terms of cost, time, and reliability will have a positive impact on promoting goods exports by reducing time and cost, increasing the competitiveness of exports, expanding export markets, diversifying export products, and increasing the capacity of export goods flow Conversely, a national logistics system with

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limitations and inadequacies in terms of input capacity and output efficiency will hinder a country's goods exports Therefore, it can be said that the impact of logistics is both a driving force and a constraint on goods exports The impact on promoting or hindering goods exports is reflected in aspects such as time, cost, export market size, export product diversification, and the capacity of export goods flow in terms of volume or value Therefore, the analysis of the causes and consequences of the driving

or hindering impact of logistics on goods exports is conducted based on the qualitative analysis framework as shown in the figure below:

Figure 2.5 Qualitative framework for analyzing the impacts of logistics on goods exports

(Source: Compiled by the author) 2.3.2 The factors of logistics that impact goods exports

Through scientific arguments and empirical evidence, this thesis has demonstrated that improving the input capacity of the national logistics system (logistics infrastructure, legal framework for logistics, capacity and quality of logistics service providers) and the output factors of the national logistics system (cost, time, and reliability) will promote the development of goods exports Conversely, the weakness of any component of the national logistics system will hinder goods exports 2.3.3 The results demonstrate the impact of logistics on specific aspects of goods exports

In this section, the thesis has analyzed the impact of logistics on promoting goods exports in various aspects such as reducing time and costs of exporting goods, increasing the competitiveness of goods, enhancing throughput capacity and transportation capacity for export goods, expanding market size, and diversifying export products In addition, logistics can hinder goods exports in the aforementioned aspects but in the opposite direction

2.4 Quantitative model for assessing the impacts of logistics on goods exports

2.4.1 Quantitative analysis framework

To measure the impact of logistics on goods exports, a quantitative analysis requires the

implementation of linear regression, where the explanatory variable is a scale representing the

improvement or limitation of the national logistics system (LPI) and the dependent variable is a scale

representing goods exports (export value) However, the export value is also influenced by many other

factors such as the GDP of the exporting and importing countries, the degree of trade openness, the

geographical distance between the two countries, and the existence of trade agreements between the

two countries, Therefore, the thesis will need to assess the impact of logistics on goods exports in the

context of goods exports being influenced by other factors to limit the impact of confounding variables

and other exogenous variables that could lead to biased estimates With this approach, the quantitative

analysis framework to assess the impact of logistics on Vietnam's goods exports at the national level is

described as follows:

Figure 2.6 Quantitative framework for analyzing the impacts of logistics

on Vietnam’s goods exports

(Source: Compiled by the author) 2.4.2 Proposed research model

Based on the quantitative analysis framework in Figure 2.6 above, the thesis will measure the

impact of the LPI indicators on Vietnam's export value by establishing seven linear regression

equations (corresponding to seven research models) based on the approach of the general gravity model

in international trade as follows::