TuǤ thuӝc nguӗn vӕn sӱ dөng cho dӵ án, chӫ ÿҫXWѭÿѭӧF[iFÿӏnh cө thӇ QKѭVDX D Ĉӕi vӟi dӵ án sӱ dөng vӕQQJkQViFKQKjQѭӟc và vӕQQKjQѭӟc ngoài ngân sách, chӫ ÿҫXWѭOjFѫTXDQWә chӭFÿѭӧFQJѭӡi quyӃ
Trang 2&Ð1*75Î1+ĈѬӦ&+2¬17+¬1+7Ҥ, 75ѬӠ1*ĈҤ,+Ӑ&%È&+.+2$
/XұQ YăQ WKҥF Vӻ ÿѭӧF EҧR YӋ WҥL: 75ѬӠ1* ĈҤ, +Ӑ& %È&+
.+2$-Ĉ+4*73+Ӗ&+Ë0,1+, ngày 10 tháng 1 QăP
Trang 4/Ӡ,&Ҧ0Ѫ1
/ӡLÿҫXWLrQ, tôi xin JӱLOӡLFҧPѫQFKkQWKjQKÿӃQPGS.TS /ѭѫQJĈӭF/RQJ,
QJѭӡL7Kҫ\ÿmWұQWkP KѭӟQJGүQYjJL~SÿӥW{LUҩWQKLӅXÿӇKRjQWKjQKOXұQYăQnày Tôi FNJQJ [LQ Ej\ Wӓ OzQJ ELӃW ѫQ ÿӃQ TXê 7Kҫ\ &{ ÿDQJ JLҧQJ Gҥ\ chuyên ngànK4XҧQ/ê;k\GӵQJÿmWUX\ӅQÿҥt NLӃQWKӭFYjFKLDVҿkinh nJKLӋPTXêbáu WӯKӑFWKXұWÿӃQWKӵFWLӉQWURQJVXӕWWKӡLJLDQtôi tham gia FKѭѫQJWUuQKFDRKӑF Wӯ QăP6-2019
/XұQYăQnày ÿѭӧFKRjQWKjQKVDXWKӡLJLDQQӛOӵFYӟLVӵKѭӟQJGүQWұQWuQKFӫDTXê WKҫ\ F{ Vӵ Kӛ WUӧ Yj JyS ê FKkQ WuQK FӫD EҥQ Eq Yj ÿӗQJ QJKLӋS Xin chân WKjQKFҧPѫQFiFDQKFKӏ, FiFEҥQÿӗQJQJKLӋSYjFiFDQKFKӏ các EҥQӣFiF OӟSFDRKӑF QJjQK4XҧQOê[k\GӵQJ ÿmWұQWuQKJL~Sÿӥtôi trong quá trình QJKLrQFӭX
và WKXWKұSGӳOLӋX
9jFXӕLFQJWôL[LQJӱLOӡLFҧPѫQÿӃQQKӳQJQJѭӡLWKkQWURQJJLDÿuQKQKӳQJEҥQEqÿmOX{QErQFҥQKTXDQWkPÿӝQJYLrQJL~SÿӥW{LYӅWLQKWKҫQJL~SW{LYѭӧWTXDQKӳQJNKyNKăQÿӇKRjQWKjQKOXұQYăQQj\
;LQFKkQWKjQKFҧPѫQ
TP+ӗ&Kt0LQKQJj\10 tháng 1 QăP20
+XǤQK+ӳX0LQKĈăQJ
Trang 57Ï07Ҳ7
+jQJQăPFyKjQJWUăPQKjWKҫXӣQѭӟFWDJһSNKyNKăQWjLFKtQKKRһFSKiVҧQPӝWSKҫQGRPӭFÿӝNK{QJFKҳFFKҳQFDRWURQJQJjQK[k\GӵQJ0һFGQKLӅX
\ӃXWӕFyWKӇOjQJX\rQQKkQFӫDWKҩWEҥLQj\FiF\ӃXWӕYӅWjLFKtQKYjQJkQViFKOjQJX\rQQKkQSKәELӃQQKҩW&iFYҩQÿӅWjLFKtQKNK{QJFKӍҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQGzQJWLӅQPjFzQFyWKӇҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQVӵWѭѫQJWiFJLӳDFiFErQWKDPJLDGӵiQ'RÿyYLӋFQKұQGLӋQYjJLҧPWKLӇXUӫLURWiFÿӝQJÿӃQGzQJWLӅQ FӫDGӵiQFyWҫPTXDQWUӑQJVӕQJFzQWURQJYLӋFTXҧQOêGӵiQ[k\GӵQJ thành công FӫD1KjWKҫXFKtQK 'ӳOLӋXSKөFYөQJKLrQFӭXÿѭӧFWKXWKұSWӯFiF NӻVѭ[k\GӵQJFKX\rQYLrQTXҧQOêGӵiQÿDQJF{QJWiFWҥLFiFGӵiQ[k\GӵQJWҥL7KjQKSKӕ+ӗ&Kt0LQKÿӇWuPUDÿѭӧFFiF QKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJ ÿӃQGzQJWLӅQFӫDQKjWKҫXWKLF{QJ KӃWTXҧNKҧRViWÿmWKXÿѭӧF26 QKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJFKtQKWӯ40 QKkQWӕÿmWәQJTXDQ Tác JLҧ[k\GӵQJ P{KuQKPҥQJ%%16WәQJTXiW WK{QJTXD YLӋF NKҧRViWFiF NӻVѭFKX\rQJLDYjFҩSTXҧQOêӣFiFGӵiQNӃWTXҧÿm[iFÿӏQKÿѭӧFPӕLTXDQKӋnhân - TXҧWӯ26 QKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJQrXWUrQ
7ӯÿyWiFJLҧiS GөQJP{KuQK%%1VYjR GӵiQ[k\GӵQJÿmWULӇQNKDLQKҵPNLӇPWUDWtQKKӧSOêFӫDP{KuQK0{KuQKVӁJL~S1KjWKҫXTXҧQOê'zQJWLӅQGӵiQWӕWKѫQ 7UѭӟFWLrQWiFJLҧKLӋX FKӍQK0{KuQKPҥQJ %%1VWәQJTXiWEҵQJ FiFK SKӓQJYҩQ FiF FKX\rQJLD WURQJGӵiQ QrX WUrQ ÿӇ OӑFFiF ELӃQ và các PӕLTXDQKӋQKkQ± qXҧNK{QJ[XҩWKLӋQWURQJ'ӵiQ KӃWTXҧWKXÿѭӧF0 QKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJYjPӕLTXDQKӋQKkQTXҧ6DXÿyWiFJLҧWLӃQKjQKSKӓQJYҩQFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJ TXҧQlý FӫD QKjWKҫXchính và QKұSFiFGӳOLӋX[iFVXҩW[ҧ\UDWҥLFiFQ~WQKkQWӕYjRP{KuQKWiFJLҧVӱGөQJSKҫQPӅP06%1;ÿӇWtQKWRiQNKҧQăQJ[ҧ\UDFӫDWӯQJWUҥQJWKiLFӫDPӛLnhân Wӕ6RViQKNӃWTXҧWtQKWRiQ[iF[XҩW[ҧ\UDFӫDnút VѭӧWFKLSKtYj nút 9ѭӧWWLӃQGӝFӫD GӵiQWӯM{KuQKYjNӃWTXҧWӯ'ӳOLӋXdӵiQWKӵFWӃ
ABSTRACT
Every year in Vietnam, hundreds of contractors meet financial difficulties or
go bankrupt, partly due to the high degree of uncertainty in the construction industry Although many factors may lead to this failure, financial and budgetary factors are the most common cause Financial issues not only affect cash-flow, but also affect interaction between participants in construction project Therefore, identification and reduction of risks affecting the project cash-flow are vital to the successful management of main contractor in the construction project
Data research is collected from construction engineers and project managers working on construction projects in Ho Chi Minh City to find out factors affecting main contractors¶V cash-flow The statistic result includes 26 main influencing factors from 40 reviewed factors The author builds an overall BBNS model through
Trang 6the survey of engineers and experts on management position within construction projects The result includes 61 causal relationships from the above influencing factors
The author has applied the BBNs model to an actual construction project to check the validity of the model The model will help the main contractor manage the project cash-flow better First, the author adjusts the BBNs Network Model by interviewing the experts in construction project to eliminat variables and cause-effect relationships which does not exist in the actual construction project The result includes 20 factors and 47 cause-effect relationships The author then interviews the managers in main contractor and imports the probability data into each factor nodes in BBNS model The author uses MSBNX software to calculate the probabilities of each state of each parent nodes Finally, the author compares the probabilities of the Over Cost Node and the Overall Schedule Delay Node of BBNS model with the actual project data
Trang 7/Ӡ,&$0Ĉ2$1
7{L[LQFDPÿRDQFiFVӕOLӋXWKXWKұS và NӃWTXҧQJKLrQFӭXÿѭӧFWUuQKEj\trong LXұQYăQQj\OjKRjQWRjQWUXQJWKӵFYjFKѭDWӯQJÿѭӧFF{QJEӕWURQJEҩWNǤ F{QJ WUuQK QJKLrQ FӭX QjR NKiF 7{L [LQ KRjQ WRjQ FKӏX WUiFK QKLӋP YӅ NӃW TXҧ QJKLrQFӭXFӫDEҧQWKkQ
Tp HCM, ngày 10 WKiQJQăP9
+XǤQK+ӳX0LQKĈăQJ
Trang 8MӨC LӨC
'$1+0Ө&%Ҧ1* 4
'$1+0Ө&+Î1+Ҧ1+ 7
'$1+0Ө&7Ӯ9,ӂ7 7Ҳ7 8
&+ѬѪ1*ĈҺ79Ҩ1Ĉӄ1*+,Ç1&Ӭ8 9
*LӟLWKLӋXFKXQJ 9
;iFÿӏQKYҩQÿӅQJKLrQFӭX 11
0өFWLrXQJKLrQFӭX 11
3KҥPYLQJKLrQFӭX 12
ĈyQJJySGӵNLӃQFӫDQJKLrQFӭX 12
9ӅPһWKӑFWKXұW 12
9ӅPһWWKӵFWLӉQ 12
&+ѬѪ1*7Ә1*48$1 13
&iFÿӏQKQJKƭDYjNKiLQLӋP 13
'zQJWLӅQGӵiQ[k\GӵQJ 13
&KLSKtWUӵFWLӃS 'LUHFW&RVW 13
&KLSKtJLiQWLӃS ,QGLUHFW&RVW 13
'ӵiQ[k\GӵQJ 14
&KӫÿҫXWѭ 14
1KjWKҫXFKtQK 15
7KҫXSKө 15
'ӵEiRGzQJWLӅQYjTXҧQOêUӫLUROLrQTXDQ : 15
0өFÿtFKFӫD'ӵEiRGzQJWLӅQGӵiQ 16
7KHRG}LWLӃQÿӝFӫD1KjWKҫX 16
7ӹOӋJLӳOҥLYjWKӡLJLDQKRjQWUҧ 17
%ҧRKjQKF{QJWUuQK : 17
7KӡLKҥQWKDQKWRiQ FKұPWUӉWӯ[iFQKұQÿӃQWKDQKWRiQ : 17
'ӵiQFyQKLӅXKҥQJPөFYӟLWKӡLJLDQKRjQWKjQKNKiFQKDX 18
ҦQKKѭӣQJFӫDVӵFKұPWUӉWLӃQÿӝ : 18
&iFQJKLrQFӭXWURQJQѭӟFYӅ'zQJWLӅQGӵiQ 19
&iFQJKLrQFӭXTXӕFWӃYӅ'zQJWLӅQGӵiQYӟLFiF\ӃXWӕUӫLUR 20
&iFQJKLrQFӭXӭQJGөQJ%%16FӫDKӑFYLrQFDRKӑF4/;' 22
7әQJTXDQYӅP{KuQK%D\HVLDQ%HOLHI1HWZRUN 23
ĈӏQKQJKƭD 23
&ѫVӣOêWKX\ӃWFӫDP{KuQK%D\HVLDQ%HOLHI1HWZRUNV 25
&+ѬѪ1*3+ѬѪ1*3+È31*+,Ç1&Ӭ8 26
4X\WUuQKQJKLrQFӭX 26
Trang 93KkQWtFKWKӕQJNrFiFQKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQ'zQJWLӅQGӵiQ 27
3KѭѫQJSKiSWKXWKұSGӳOLӋX 27
;iFÿӏQKNtFKWKѭӟFPүX 27
.ӻWKXұWOҩ\PүX 28
3KѭѫQJSKiSSKkQWtFKGӳOLӋX 29
;k\GӵQJ0{KuQK%%1VSKkQWtFKÿӏQKOѭӧQJ 32
3.3.1 Dòng Chi : 33
3.3.2 Dòng thu 34
ÈSGөQJ0{KuQK%%1VYjRPӝWGӵiQFөWKӇ 35
&{QJFөVӱGөQJWURQJQJKLrQFӭX 35
&+ѬѪ1*7+87+Ұ39¬3+Æ17Ë&+'Ӳ/,ӊ8 36
7әQJKӧSFiFQKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQ'zQJWLӅQGӵiQFӫD1KjWKҫXFKtQK 36 0{WҧFKLWLӃWFiFQKkQWӕ 39
;k\GӵQJEҧQJFkXKӓLWKXWKұSGӳOLӋX 48
7KDQJÿRFKREҧQJFkXKӓLNKҧRViW 48
4.3.2 %ӕFөFEҧQJFkXKӓLNKҧRViW 48
.ӃWTXҧWKӕQJNrP{WҧFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧFNKҧRViW 49
9ӏWUtF{QJWiF 49
.LQKQJKLӋPOjPYLӋFWURQJQJjQK[k\GӵQJ 50
4X\P{GӵiQFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJWKDPJLD 51
.ӃWTXҧSKkQWtFKFiFQKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJ'zQJWLӅQGӵiQ 52
*LiWUӏWUXQJEuQKPӭFҧQKKѭӣQJFӫDFiFQKkQWӕ 52
.LӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR &URQEDFK¶V$OSKD 55
3KkQWtFKQKkQWӕ()$ ([SORUDWRU\)DFWRU$QDO\VLF 65
&iFQKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQ'zQJWLӅQGӵiQFӫD17& VDXNKLORҥLEӓFiF ELӃQNK{QJKӧSOӋ 77
4.5.5 ;ӃSWKӭ WӵQKkQWӕWKHR*LiWUӏ WUXQJ EuQK PHDQ PӭFҧQK KѭӣQJ ÿӃQ 'zQJWLӅQGӵán: 80
;k\GӵQJP{KuQK%%1V WәQJTXiW 82
3KkQOӟS0{KuQK 82
;iFÿӏQKFiFPӕLTXDQKӋ1KkQ± TXҧFӫDFiFQKkQWӕUӫLUR 82
*iQ;iFVXҩWFKRFiF%LӃQ WURQJ0ҥQJ%%16 86
&+ѬѪ1* 1*+,Ç1 &Ӭ8 75ѬӠ1* +Ӧ3 Ӭ1* 'Ө1* 0Ð +Î1+ %%16 9¬2'ӴÈ1 89
7K{QJWLQ'ӵiQӭQJGөQJ0{KuQKPҥQJ%%1V 89
'DQKPөF+ӗVѫOLrQTXDQ+ҥQJPөFGӵiQ 90
;iFOұS'zQJWLӅQFӫD+ҥQJPөFFӫDGӵiQ 90
Trang 10+LӋXFKӍQK0{KuQK%%1VFӫD'ӵiQ 91
/ӑFFiFQKkQWӕUӫLURFӫDULrQJ+ҥQJPөF.7; 91
;iFÿӏQKFiFPӕLTXDQKӋQKkQTXҧ 93
*iQ;iFVXҩWFKRFiF%LӃQ WURQJ0ҥQJ%%16 95
.ӃWTXҧ0{KuQK%%1VFӫD'ӵiQ 105
;iFÿӏQKNKRҧQJ*LDWăQJFKLSKt¨&Yj&KұPWLӃQÿӝ¨7 106
ĈiQKJLiNӃWTXҧP{KuQK : 107
&+ѬѪ1*Ĉӄ;8Ҩ7*,Ҧ,3+È3 108
&iFJLҧLSKiSTXҧQOêYjJLҧPWKLӇXUӫLURҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQ'zQJWLӅQGӵiQ WKHRNӃKRҥFKFӫD1KjWKҫXFKtQK 108
&+ѬѪ1*.ӂ7/8Ұ19¬.,ӂ11*+ӎ 115
.ӃWOXұQ : 115
.LӃQQJKӏ : 116
3+Ө/Ө&%Ҧ1*&Æ8+Ӓ,.+Ҧ26È7 117
7¬,/,ӊ87+$0.+Ҧ2 122
/é/ӎ&+75Ë&+1*$1* 126
Trang 11'$1+0Ө&%Ҧ1*
%ҧQJ*LiWUӏWLrXFKXҭQKӋVӕ)DFWRUORDGLQJ 32
%ҧQJ&iFSKҫQPӅPVӱGөQJWURQJQJKLrQFӭX 35
%ҧQJ&iFQKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJ'zQJWLӅQGӵiQVDXNKLWәQJKӧS 37
%ҧQJ9ӏWUtF{QJWiFFӫDFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧFNKҧRViW 49
%ҧQJ.LQKQJKLӋPFӫDFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJNKҧRViW 50
%ҧQJ4X\P{GӵiQOӟQQKҩWFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJWӯQJWKDPJia 51
%ҧQJ *LiWUӏWUXQJEuQKPӭFҧQKKѭӣQJFӫDFiFQKkQWӕ 53
%ҧQJ 7әQJKӧS.ӃWTXҧ&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDFӫDFiFQKyPQKkQWӕ 55
%ҧQJ+ӋVӕ&URQEDFK¶VDOSKDWәQJFӫDQKyP%&iFQKkQWӕOLrQTXDQ1Kj WKҫXFKtQKWURQJJLDLÿRҥQWUѭӟFNKLWKLF{QJ 56
%ҧQJ +ӋVӕWѭѫQJTXDQELӃQWәQJFӫDFiFQKkQWӕWURQJQKyP% 56
%ҧQJ +ӋVӕ&URQEDFK¶VDOSKDWәQJFӫDQKyP%&iFQKkQWӕYӅ1ăQJOӵFWjL FKtQKFӫD1KjWKҫXFKtQK 57
%ҧQJ +ӋVӕWѭѫQJTXDQELӃQWәQJFӫDPӛLQKkQWӕWURQJQKyP% 57
%ҧQJ +ӋVӕ&URQEDFK¶VDOSKDWәQJFӫDQKyP%&iFQKkQWӕYӅ.LӇPVRiW FKLSKtYjWәFKӭFWKLF{QJFӫD1KjWKҫXFKtQK 58
%ҧQJ +ӋVӕWѭѫQJTXDQELӃQWәQJFӫDWӯQJQKkQWӕWURQJQKyPB3 58
%ҧQJ +ӋVӕ&URQEDFK¶VDOSKDFӫDQKyP%- Các QKkQWӕYӅ7KҫXSKөYjQKj FXQJFҩS 59
%ҧQJ +ӋVӕWѭѫQJTXDQELӃQWәQJFӫDPӛLQKkQWӕWURQJQKyPB4 59
%ҧQJ +Ӌ Vӕ &URQEDFK¶V DOSKD WәQJ FӫD QKyP FiF QKkQ Wӕ YӅ Tài chính và QăQJOӵFTXҧQOêGӵiQFӫD&KӫÿҫXWѭFKҥ\6366OҫQ 60
%ҧQJ+ӋVӕWѭѫQJTXDQELӃQWәQJFӫDWӯQJQKkQWӕWURQJQKyP%FKҥ\6366 OҫQ 60
%ҧQJ +Ӌ Vӕ &URQEDFK¶V DOSKD WәQJ FӫD QKyP FiF QKkQ Wӕ YӅ Tài chính và QăQJOӵFTXҧQOêGӵiQFӫD&KӫÿҫXWѭFKҥ\6366OҫQ 61
%ҧQJ+ӋVӕWѭѫQJTXDQELӃQWәQJFӫDWӯQJQKkQWӕWURQJQKyP%FKҥ\6366 OҫQ 61
Trang 12%ҧQJ +ӋVӕ&URQEDFK¶VDOSKDWәQJFӫDQKyPFiFQKkQWӕYӅ.LӇPVRiWJLӳD
FiF%rQWURQJJLDLÿRҥQWKLF{QJ 62
%ҧQJ +ӋVӕWѭѫQJTXDQELӃQWәQJFӫDWӯQJQKkQWӕWURQJQKyP% 62
%ҧQJ+ӋVӕ&URQEDFK¶VDOSKDWәQJFӫDQKyPFiFQKkQWӕQJRjLNKҧQăQJNLӇP VRiWFӫDFiF%rQFKҥ\6366OҫQ 63
%ҧQJ+ӋVӕWѭѫQJTXDQELӃQWәQJFӫDWӯQJQKkQWӕWURQJQKyP%FKҥ\6366 OҫQ 63
%ҧQJ+ӋVӕ&URQEDFK¶VDOSKDWәQJFӫDQKyPFiFQKkQWӕQJRjLNKҧQăQJNLӇP VRiWFӫDFiF%rQ 64
%ҧQJ +ӋVӕWѭѫQJTXDQELӃQWәQJFӫDWӯQJQKkQWӕWURQJQKyP% 64
%ҧQJ&KӍVӕ.02Yj%DUOHWW¶V FKҥ\6366OҫQ 65
%ҧQJ%ҧQJSKѭѫQJVDLWUtFK FKҥ\6366OҫQ 66
%ҧQJ%ҧQJPDWUұQ[RD\NӃWTXҧ()$FXҧFiFQKkQWӕ FKҥ\6366OҫQ 67
%ҧQJ%ҧQJFKӍVӕ.02Yj%DUOHWW¶V FKҥ\6366OҫQ