216 output This would, eventually, increase the share of food exports by 42 2% compared with SC1 and SC2 For example, agricultural production is likely to achieve a significant increase in agricultura[.]
216 output This would, eventually, increase the share of food exports by 42.2% compared with SC1 and SC2 For example, agricultural production is likely to achieve a significant increase in agricultural productivity, with total exports of USD 128,933.4 million or 6.7% higher than in SC1 and SC2 However, agriculture imports would decrease sharply by 25.7% (USD 21,661.7 million) and 18.1% (USD 13,849.7 million) compared with SC2 and SC1, respectively (Table 6-5) The overall improvement in the trade balance in SC3 would result primarily from the growth in the trade surplus in the food sector caused by the food-oriented policy In the SC4 Water scenario, the total trade balance of the country significantly improves with an average annual increase of 23.7%, reaching USD 37,889.4 million in 2030, equal 9.9% of the total GDP This is an increase of 22.4%, 23.4%, and 23.5% over SC1, SC2, and SC3, respectively In SC4, with a water-oriented policy, the outcome is expected to be more effective than in the other non-nexus or sector approaches such as in the BAU, energy, and food centric scenarios While achieving significant improvement in water security, SC4 is likely to generate positive cross-sector impacts that improve productivity in terms of both food and energy production The major contributor to the increase in the trade balance in SC4 is the trade surplus in various sectors: industrial goods will increase USD 20,678.5 million, energy USD 4,433.3 million, and agricultural products USD 3,915 million (Table 6-5) In the SC5 Energy–Food–Water nexus scenario, the trade balance improves by an average annual increase of 32.4% during the next 16 years, reaching USD 113,401.9 million in 2030, representing 26.6% of the total GDP This is an annual increase of 22.4%, 23.4%, 23.5%, and 23.7% over SC1, SC2, SC3, and SC4, respectively (Figure 6-30 and Table 6-5) The main reason for this enormous growth in the total trade balance in SC5 results primarily from a trade surplus in most economic sectors, especially industry and agriculture, which are engaged intensively with the energy, food, and water sectors For example, the trade surplus in the energy, agriculture, and industrial goods sectors is likely to reach USD 75,239.8 million, USD 61,910.5 million, and USD 53,616 million, respectively, and eventually contribute 90% to the total trade surplus in SC6 (Table 6-5) This result indicates the effectiveness of a cross-sector approach among energy, food, and water policymaking; while simultaneously promoting economic growth and the trade balance of the country, these approaches ensure energy–food–water security in the longterm development