214 with crude oil and coal exports accounting for more than 90% (Table 6 5) This indicates that the continuation of the existing business development strategy would generate heavier reliance on fossi[.]
214 with crude oil and coal exports accounting for more than 90% (Table 6-5) This indicates that the continuation of the existing business development strategy would generate heavier reliance on fossil fuels and raw materials, which would, therefore, create potential risks in the trade balance of the country in the long run as these resources are becoming scarce and limited This context would, furthermore, impact the feasibility of Vietnam’s socio-economic development due to its resource-centric economy, along with its rapid population growth in the coming decades Table 6-6: Trade balance in Vietnam in various scenarios ($US million) 2030 2014 SC6- SC1- SC2 SC3 SC4 SC5 BAU Energy Food Water FEW Nexus 1,268.0 32,021.7 36,509.1 36,956.2 37,899.4 113,401.9 109,237.6 0.9 9.7 10.6 10.7 9.9 26.6 25.9 Total exports 149,117.1 728,774.7 732,410.3 727,128.1 729,113.7 764,092.8 727,831.5 Total imports 147,849.1 696,753.0 689,805.4 690,171.9 691,214.3 650,690.9 618,594.0 21,241.0 103,810.6 103,810.6 102,696.9 103,783.6 106,848.8 101,740.3 Trade balance Share of GDP (%) Low Carbon Net exports of: Energy Coal 1,726.1 8,435.7 8,435.7 8,345.2 8,433.5 8,925.9 8,503.6 Oil 19,219.5 93,930.9 93,930.9 92,923.2 93,906.5 96,441.1 91,825.8 Gas 294.8 1,440.6 1,440.6 1,425.1 1,440.2 1,478.2 1,407.5 0.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24,573.3 120,096.3 120,096.3 124,933.4 128,589.3 137,112.8 130,638.1 745.8 3,644.7 3,644.7 8,028.3 8,168.0 8,770.9 8,356.7 5,806.4 28,377.2 28,377.2 27,962.7 28,369.8 29,631.1 28,231.9 18,021.2 88,074.4 88,074.4 92,942.4 88,051.5 98,710.8 94,049.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93,763.2 458,245.7 458,245.7 449,375.7 454,130.8 470,987.5 406,891.2 9,539.5 46,622.1 46,622.1 46,122.0 46,610.0 49,143.7 88,561.9 Electricity Steam distribution… Food Crops Livestock Other (Agriculture product: rice, meat,) Water Industrial goods Commercial and transport … Source: Estimates based on modelling developed in this research In the SC2 Energy scenario, the total trade balance is expected to reach USD 35,813 million in 2030, accounting for 10.4% of the total GDP, equivalent to an annual increase of USD 2,202.6 million, and a 23.4% increase compared with the base year (2014)