230 In the SC1 BAU Scenario (hereinafter, SC1), as shown in Table 6 6, the GDP increases by a factor of 2 5—from US$ 131 5 billion in 2014 to US$ 330 2 billion in 2030 The corresponding increase in in[.]
230 In the SC1 BAU Scenario (hereinafter, SC1), as shown in Table 6-6, the GDP increases by a factor of 2.5—from US$ 131.5 billion in 2014 to US$ 330.2 billion in 2030 The corresponding increase in investment is 2.3 times—from US$ 13.6 billion to US$ 31.2 billion The employment during the period increases by 3.5 times, from 52.7 million jobs in 2014 to 182.2 million jobs in 2030 To support these increases, the demand for energy, water, and food will increase on average by 230% over the period between 2014 and 2030 More specifically, energy will increase by 255%, and both food and water by 219% These results indicate significant impacts on energy, food, and water security, with important implications for energy, food, and water policies over the next sixteen years Table 7-1: Energy-Food-Water Security: 2014 – 2030 (SC1) Energy security Scenario Energy accessibi -lity (%) Base year (2014) SC1-BAU (2030) Energy Energy import – affordab depende i-lity n-cy (%) (%) Energy intensity (toe/Mn$) Food security Energy diversity (Herfindahl index) Energy efficien cy (%) Water security Food Food Food accessi import affordab bi-lity dependen i-lity (%) -cy (%) (%) Water stress (%) Water affordab i-lity (%) Water Water intensity efficien- (m3/US$) cy (%) 4.6 14.9 4.2 273.6 0.37 74.0 8.7 18.7 41.2 59.0 0.25 24.1 23.4 4.3 16.5 3.9 480.3 0.43 70.7 8.3 19.2 39.5 62.2 0.23 27.0 19.5 Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research Energy Security As shown in Figure 7-1 and Table 7-1, the continuation of existing policies is likely to cause significant energy insecurity in Vietnam by 2030; indeed, conditions have already worsened considerably since 2014 In SC1, it is estimated that the energy security index will be 69 in 2030, representing a decrease of 11.8 from the base year (2014) (Figure 71) Major contributors to this decrease in energy security include the lack of diversity in the energy fuel mix, as well as the slow introduction of new and advanced technologies to substitute existing conventional energy production technologies This will invariably increase energy import dependency from 14.9% in 2014 to 16.5% in 2030 (Table 7-1), with a corresponding decline in energy security with a security index of 7.5 (Figure 7-1) Furthermore, energy intensity will worsen in this scenario—declining by 36.9 units on the energy security index—compounded by the increasing energy demands of economic activities and population growth Moreover, three other attributes of energy security will be negatively impacted: namely, energy accessibility (36.9 units decline on the index), energy efficiency (9.9 units decline), and energy affordability (11.08 units decline) (Figure 7-1) As a result, the