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NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ADVANCED EDUCATION PROGRAMS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS TOPIC EXPORTING GOODS BY THAILAND IN THE PERIOD 2015 2022&S[.]
NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ADVANCED EDUCATION PROGRAMS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS TOPIC: EXPORTING GOODS BY THAILAND IN THE PERIOD 2015-2022&SUGGESTIONS TO VIETNAM Name :NGUYỄN HÀ PHƯƠNG Student ID :11214794 Major :Development Economics Class :Development Economics 63CLC Instructor :Associate Professor Ph.D Nguyễn Thường Lạng Email :langnt@neu.edu.vn Mobile :0983478486 Study Time :Semester of the academic year 2022-2023 Student Mobile :0941712864 Student Email :11214794@st.neu.edu.vn HANOI, 2/2023 GUARANTEE I hereby declare that I have completed this assignment entirely on my own To the best of my knowledge, the statements and materials used in the exercise have been cited, and are guaranteed to be precise to the highest degree If the assignment is not performed as specified above, I will accept full responsibility Hanoi, February 9, 2023 Prepare by Nguyễn Hà Phương THANK YOU First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all of the instructors at the National Economics University who have diligently taught and brought with us valuable expertise and information I want to express my gratitude to Associate Professor Dr Nguyen Thuong Lang in particular since he helped me out in the exercise Working with you has allowed me to continue learning and gain a wealth of knowledge that will be very helpful to me in the future I have also had a serious and productive work spirit, both of which will be essential for my career path Finally, I could not have completed this essay without the support of my family and friends who have always encouraged, contributed ideas and helped in the process of studying and researching to complete this exercise Hanoi, February 9, 2023 Prepare by Nguyễn Hà Phương OPENING CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BASIS ON EXPORT 1.1 The concept of export 1.2.The types and role of export 1.3.The factors that affect export goods CHAPTER 2: THE STATE OF EXPORTING GOODS BY THAILAND IN THE PERIOD 2015-2022 2.1.Thailand’s export turnover in the period 2015-2022 2.2 Thailand’s main export goods 2.3 Thailand's major export markets 2.4.The overall assessment of Thailand’s export situation 2.5 The orientation to export in 2023 CHAPTER 3:SUGGESTION TO VIETNAM 3.1.The comparision between Thailand’s export and Vietnam’s export 3.2.The proposed solution for exporting goods by Vietnam CONCLUSION LIST OF REFERENCES INTRODUCTION 1.Inevitability of topic selection Sustainable economic growth is always the top goal of each country in order to comprehensively develop socio-economic and improve people's living standards One of the important factors affecting economic growth is exports Thailand has a new industrial market economy that is heavily dependent on tourism and exports, with exports accounting for about 60% of GDP It is the 2nd largest economy in the ASEAN region (after Indonesia), 25th globally by nominal GDP, 21st in the world by purchasing power parity, and 28th in the world the world in terms of total national brand value (statistics in 2020) Meanwhile, Vietnam moved from a centrally planned economy to a market economy and opened up to international economic integration The implementation of industrialization and modernization in line with the Party's renovation line has actively contributed to the initial change in the economic face of the country In 1986, Vietnam really entered the period of reform and opening up with the motto of diversification, multilateralization, wanting to be friends with all countries… Vietnam is well aware of the importance of exports It has brought success and prosperity to many countries in East Asia and Southeast Asia such as Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand Up to now, after more than 20 years of renovation, reform and opening up, towards export, Vietnam's economy has achieved many achievements, but there are also many challenges and difficulties that require solutions new approach on the basis of selective lessons learned from previous countries Vietnam and Thailand have some similarities in terms of economic, natural and social conditions Therefore, studying the export process of Thailand not only has theoretical and practical significance, but also has an empirical reference for the export process in Vietnam today That's why I chose the topic: "EXPORTING GOODS BY THAILAND IN THE PERIOD 2015-2022&SUGGESTIONS TO VIETNAM" as my research content The research’s goals and tasks 2.1.The research’s goals On the basis of analyzing the current situation, assessing the results as well as the export restrictions of products by Thailand in the period 2015-2022, thereby proposing orientations and solutions for the commodity export market of Vietnam in the coming years 2.2.The research tasks To achieve the above research purpose, the research will perform the following tasks: First, state export theories Second, analyze the status of commodity exports by Thailand in the period of 2022-2013, draw assessments about the achieved results and shortcomings.And also show the export orientations of Thailand in the coming years Third, from the comparisons between Thailand's exports and Vietnam's exports, I propose some solutions to improve Vietnam's exports in the coming years 3.The research’s subject and scope 3.1 Subject: export of goods by Thailand 3.2 Scope: exports of goods by Thailand for the period 2015-2022 4.The research methods This study uses analysis, synthesis and comparison methods to solve the posed problem Data are collected from Customs offices, General Statistics Office of Thailand and Vietnam Structure of the essay In addition to the table of contents and the list of references, the introduction, conclusion, and main content of the essay includes chapters, as follows: Chapter 1: Theoretical basis for export Chapter 2: Thailand's commodity exports in the period 2015-2022 Chapter 3: Some experiences for Vietnam from Thailand's exports CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BASIS ON EXPORT 1.1 The concept of export Exports are goods and services that are produced in one country and sold to buyers in another Exports, along with imports, make up international trade Exports are incredibly important to modern economies because they offer people and firms many more markets for their goods One of the core functions of diplomacy and foreign policy between governments is to foster economic trade, encouraging exports and imports for the benefit of all trading parties by the specialization of production by each country Export agreements are often heavily strategic, with countries exchanging agreements to ensure their own country can not only receive the goods they need via export but can distribute goods for more domestic revenue via imports Net exports is a component of measuring a country's gross domestic product (GDP), so exports play a factor in determining a country's financial and economic well-being 1.2.The types and role of export 1.2.1.The types of Exporting When it comes to exporting, there are two main types - direct exporting and indirect exporting Direct exporting is a type of exporting where the company directly sells products to overseas customers All the deals are done directly between the companies without any intermediaries This way, the companies have more control over the processes Direct exporting also increases profits as the intermediary is eliminated, reducing costs Direct exporting also creates a stronger bond between the supplier and the buyer, and maintaining business relationships is crucial for business success Despite the advantages mentioned above, direct exporting also demands more resources from the exporting company This exporting type requires more personnel, resources, and time than it would if the export process were to happen through an intermediary Direct exporting is the best strategy for companies trying to penetrate new markets globally for the long term Indirect exporting is a type of exporting practiced by companies that sell products to other countries with the help of an intermediary The company has various intermediaries, such as foreign agents, export merchants, expert management companies, etc Here, businesses have lesser control over the processes The intermediaries are present in the country producing the product They are responsible for sending the products to the customer's country and finishing all the paperwork, transport, and marketing The first intermediary may sell directly to the customer or the customer's intermediary Indirect exporting is less expensive than direct exporting It is easier to cancel indirect exports than direct exports The main disadvantage of indirect exporting is the transfer of power to the intermediaries As a result, companies may lose the opportunity to build long-term relationships and offer after-sales services to customers Indirect exporting is a strategy best suited for companies trying to increase profits quickly 1.2.2.The role of Exporting a) Higher revenue to the business Help increase sales, diversify output markets to create a stable source of income that can be expanded to the world b) Government Support Governments often encourage exports as they boost the international economy and increase the flow of foreign currency into the exporting country This trade can work in favor of the country's economy c) Create jobs and improve people's lives Exporting goods to the international market has a very large scale This, in turn, provides employment opportunities for many people to help improve people's living standards d) Promote corporate and national brands in the international market The strong companies that export many valuable products to the international market, in addition to dominating the market, also help affirm the company's name A country with many strong brands is also asserting its own brand This can be clearly seen through the contributions of big names to national brands such as: Microsoft, Apple (USA), Sony, Toyota (Japan), Samsung, Hyundai (Korea), Lenovo, Alibaba (China)… e) Expand and build relationships with countries around the world Exporting goods makes it possible for a country to build new relationships with other countries.Thus, this also makes the friendship between a country and other countries more cohesive and durable 1.3.The factors affect to export goods Subjective factors from countries a Development strategies and legal systems of exporting and importing countries Each country's development strategy is a set of goals and objectives to be achieved over a long period of time Based on strategies and policies, countries will have specific legal provisions on import and export activities as well as state management of import and export to achieve the common goal of the country b Consumption demand of the importing country Increased consumer demand in the importing country creates an impetus for the host country to increase exports The main reason is that traders are optimistic about the future prospects of sales in addition to the increase in product selling prices due to increased demand c The production capacity of the exporting country The design, quality and output of products meet international tastes, the development potential and competitiveness of export goods as well as export enterprises will be very high in the international market d Level of development of facilities, techniques and export services Advanced infrastructure, warehouses, convenient and modern roads, export services with high specialization help reduce logistics costs, reduce costs, and increase competitiveness in the international market e Competitiveness of export enterprises Healthy competition will ensure sustainable development Competition helps export enterprises to constantly invest in technology development and product quality At the same time, competition also contributes to eliminating weak and incompetent enterprises World objective factors a Exchange rate When the exchange rate increases, the domestic currency appreciates relative to the foreign currency, the price of exported goods becomes more expensive, thereby negatively affecting export supply and vice versa Therefore, the devaluation of the domestic currency is a common policy of countries to boost exports Along with that, the import of goods increases if the exchange rate falls because then the price of imported goods decreases relative to domestic goods b World economic and political situation Although this is a macro factor, it has a strong impact on export activities A trade war, a global recession or even a pandemic will put the import and export of every country in a difficult situation A typical example for the impact of this factor is the supply chain disruption due to measures to close the border to serve the prevention of the Covid-19 epidemic in many countries in 2020 CHAPTER 2: THE STATE OF EXPORTING GOODS BY THAILAND IN THE PERIOD 2015-2022 2.1.Thailand’s export turnover in the period 2015-2022 1.The first period (2015-2019) Slowing growth in the period 2013 - 2015 due to the domestic political crisis as well as the decrease in global demand has reduced Thailand's traditional strength exports: electronics, agricultural goods, umbrellas auto parts and accessories, processed food Thailand's exports in 2015 reached 213.4 billion USD And from 2016 to 2018, the Thai economy had a recovery, the GDP growth rate in 2016 was 3.3% ($412 billion), in 2017 it was 3.9% ($455 billion) and the first quarter of 2018 I/2018 was 4.8% At that time, Thailand's export turnover also increased gradually 2016 to 2018 from 214 to 251 billion USD in 2018 In macroeconomic policy, Thailand identifies exports as the engine of economic development with exports accounting for 60% of GDP.By 2019, The overall global economy in 2019 expanded at a slower pace from the previous year Several countries were affected by the slowdown in global trade volume partly due to intensifying trade tensions between the US and China As a result, exports and manufacturing production in various countries contracted Business sentiment and investment were affected by uncertainties throughout the year such as international trade protectionism measures, Brexit and geopolitical risks Nonetheless, private consumption remained an important growth driver in many countries Looking ahead, the global economy was expected to recover gradually in line with the improvement in international trade situation after the U.S and China reached an agreement on the phase one trade deal and the recovery of the electronic cycle However, there remained risks that warranted close monitoring, including (1) the spreading and severity of the COVID19 outbreak, (2) trade tensions between the U.S and China that could become intensified and (3) geopolitical risks in many areas The Thai economy in 2019 below its potential level, due to the impact of the continued contraction in external demand on domestic demand becoming more pronounced Merchandise exports continued to contract in various categories as a result of the slowdown in both trading partner economies and global trade volume following the increased trade tensions between the U.S and China Nevertheless, exports of some products benefited from the relocation of production base to Thailand and substitution for Chinese products in the U.S market such as electrical appliances and tires.That made the export turnover in Thailand reached 242.7 billion USD 2.The second period( 2020-2022) The outbreak of the COVID-19 acute respiratory infection pandemic may cause damage to the country's export industry, and it has caused Thailand's merchandise export turnover in 2020 to decrease by nearly 16 billion USD compared to 2019 and set at 227 billion USD For the whole year of 2021, Thailand's exports increased by 17.1% to 271 billion USD Such strong export growth during the COVID-19 outbreak can be attributed to accelerated imports in many countries to stockpile ahead of the holiday season; improved semiconductor shortage; and the implementation of the export promotion plan of the Ministry of Trade At the same time, foreign demand and global trade volume improved along with the recovery of the world economy Furthermore, the devaluation of the baht and high crude oil prices have helped increase the competitiveness and value of related export products By the first quarter of 2022, Thailand's exports grew 14 percent, 9%, reaching 73.6 billion USD Thus, the export value of goods (excluding gold, petroleum-related products and weapons) of Thailand has continuously grown for 13 consecutive months Export products recorded with a strong increase in March include goods benefiting from gasoline prices and a number of other goods increasing such as: Iron, steel, crude oil, refined oil, chemicals , plastics, rubber tires and agricultural and food products In addition, a number of other goods also saw a sharp increase in exports such as household appliances, computers, televisions, phones as well as medical products to prevent and control the Covid-19 epidemic, which are still in demand “The strong growth in Thai exports has been attributed to strong global demand, in part due to the improved Covid-19 situation The impact of the RussianUkrainian military conflict on Thailand is also relatively limited as these two countries account for only a very small proportion of Thailand's total exports Thailand in 2022 reached the milestone of 287 billion USD 2.2.Thailand’s main export goods Thailand has identified priority sectors including Agriculture, Electronics, Agro-manufactured products, Automotive, Apparel and Textile Materials As the world's second largest rice exporter (after India), agriculture has always played an extremely important role, contributing to the development of the Thai economy Sustainable agricultural development is considered one of Thailand's main economic drivers Not only is it one of the world's leading rice exporters, Thailand's other agricultural products also have major export metals such as sugar, pears, and rubber Besides, The manufacturing sector is diversifying and that has contributed much to growth during the economic boom Fast-growing industries include: computers and electronics, apparel and textile goods, furniture, wood products, canned foods, toys, plastic products, gems and wares jewelry High-tech products such as components and integrated circuits, electrical appliances, and motor vehicles are leading Thailand's export growth.Thailand's exports are stronger after 2020 thanks to the strengthening of global demand, partly thanks to the improvement of the Covid-19 epidemic situation 2.3 Thailand's major export markets From 2019-2021, the United States is Thailand's largest export market with the main items being rubber, automobiles and components, gems and jewelry, and the second largest supplier after China with chemicals Followed by the Japanese market Countries in ASEAN also contribute a lot in Thailand's development turnover such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, etc 2.4.The assessment of Thailand’s export situation In general, from 2015-2019, there was a fluctuation in the export situation and was evident in the first year and 2020 In 2015, Thailand's export situation slowed down due to the political situation in the country From 2016 to 2018, the Thai economy recovered and then, Thailand's export turnover also increased gradually By 2019, the global economy was expanding at a slower rate than the previous year Several countries were affected by the decline in global trade volumes in part due to increased trade tensions between the US and China Business and investment sentiment was affected by uncertainties throughout the year such as protectionist international trade measures, Brexit and geopolitical risks However, exports of some products benefited from shifting production to Thailand and replacing Chinese goods in the US market, such as electrical appliances and tires The outbreak of the COVID-19 acute respiratory infections caused damage to the country's export industry, and it caused a decrease in Thailand's merchandise export turnover in 2020 By 2021, export growth strong during the COVID-19 outbreak can be attributed to accelerated imports in many countries to stockpile ahead of the holiday season; improved semiconductor shortage; and the implementation of the export promotion plan of the Ministry of Trade At the same time, foreign demand and global trade volume improved along with the recovery of the world economy 2.5.The orientation to export in 2023 In order to promote exports, solve obstacles to trade and limit the negative effects of the global economic recession in 2023, Thailand is targeting a group of countries including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.Thailand aims to export to the market of countries next year, increasing to 33.5 billion USD from 28 billion USD this year Major export items include construction materials, electrical equipment, plastic beads, and garments.Along with the Middle East and South Asia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam are considered as one of the three high potential export markets of Thailand next year.Thailand's Ministry of Commerce also pledged to increase border trade with these countries next year, especially in food, fruits and vegetables CHAPTER 3:SUGGESTION TO VIETNAM 3.1.The comparision between Thailand’s export and Vietnam’s export As we can see, from 2015 to 2018, Thailand's export turnover surpassed Vietnam's, but this gap gradually narrowed By 2019, marking a big transition when Vietnam's export turnover Vietnam has surpassed Thailand with 21 billion USD And in the coming years between 2020 and 2022, while the world is still unstable, the prospect of Vietnam is quite positive During this period, Vietnam's export turnover has still surpassed Thailand's In 2021, Vietnam's export turnover reached 336 billion USD while that of Thailand only reached 271 billion USD And by 2022, that of Vietnam was more than Thailand's to $85 billion Over 10 years, by 2018, Vietnam has had an impressive growth rate ranked 26th in terms of exports Accordingly, Vietnam is continuously in the group of 30 countries and territories with the largest import-export turnover in the world Exports increased sharply, but the level of dependence on enterprises with foreign investment capital (FDI) was large, accounting for about 74% of total export turnover In contrast, the export capacity of domestic enterprises, especially small and medium enterprises, is not high The pace of market diversification of some products, such as vegetables and fruits, is still slow, so it has not met the requirements on standards, quality, or made good use of signed FTAs The transition from clean to official quota exports is still slow At the conference, Deputy Foreign Minister-Nguyen Minh Vu commented, 2023 will be more complicated when many economies around the world are forecasted to have high inflation; The world economy is likely to have a technical recession leading to a decrease in purchasing power and global consumption Trading partners are also more demanding, such as adjusting regulations related to reducing carbon emissions, or tightening quality with imported goods "Certainly, customers will be more demanding in association with commercial and non-commercial conditions, requiring businesses and export industries to have a response scenario," Mr Vu noted 3.2.The proposed solution for exporting goods by Vietnam 1.Strengthening the attraction of foreign investment capital at the same time as mobilizing domestic capital, besides having an effective capital use plan a) Regarding foreign capital sources From the above experience, Vietnam needs to attach importance to both FDI and loan capital In order to attract loans, Vietnam must have specific policies and solutions: - Firstly, improve the investment environment through administrative reform, simplify investment procedures and offer tax, credit, and infrastructure preferential packages for priority areas promote investment and development - Second, complete regional and sectoral plans to be ready to call for investment - Third, it is necessary to have a suitable and attractive land policy for foreigners to invest in Vietnam b) Regarding domestic capital From the experience in mobilizing and using Thailand's capital and how Vietnam's capital is used over the years, we can see that Vietnam has been very successful in raising capital but has not used it effectively the results of the funds mobilized for the appraisal of investment plans and projects, it is necessary to have a unified mechanism for managing and allocating capital for capital construction on the basis of 5-10 year socio-economic development strategies to avoid investment duplication, causing waste 2.Building a dynamic and efficient economic structure From the experience of Thailand and the experience of industry restructuring over the years in Vietnam, we can see that in order to accelerate the economic restructuring process, an industry restructuring strategy brings Overall and consistency needs to be done, which is to prioritize the development of laborintensive, low-capital-intensive and export-oriented industries On that basis, on the one hand, implement measures to upgrade existing facilities in the value chain; on the other hand, select a number of fields that have the potential to become highly competitive industries in the future to persistently, decisively, and fully achieve, creating the necessary conditions for human resources equipment, infrastructure, technology for the turning point of economic restructuring towards modernity in the future To promote such economic restructuring, Vietnam needs to pay attention to creating a market-supporting institution, making the market work better, thereby optimally allocating available resources countries based on comparative advantage At the same time, the state needs to identify priority directions and encourage investment in the identified priority areas The State will play the role of an investor in a number of fields necessary to create a support base for the business sector to develop Specifically, (1) select industries to focus on development; and (2) Identify areas for direct state investment 3.Solving well the relationship between rapid growth and sustainable development - From the experiences of Thailand, we can draw for ourselves future orientations in sustainable development as follows: - Firstly, successfully exploit foreign investment, while also being able to orient future paths through reinvestment programs The immediate priority is to focus on industries that Vietnam has a competitive advantage with, paying much attention to the quality factor - Second, it is necessary to launch fields with high potential thanks to new science and technology - Third, environment - economy - society - three factors that cannot be separated in the development process 4.Diversify markets, maintain and improve product quality + Market policy Vietnam needs to continue to maintain important markets such as the US, Japan and the EU, specifically as follows: For the US market, Vietnam has signed a BTA bilateral trade agreement, so Vietnamese goods are also easy to penetrate into this market But the US market is not as easy as we see it, because the US always creates technical barriers to prevent products from developing countries including Vietnam Therefore, it is extremely important to negotiate the Generalized Systems Preferential (GSP) with the United States For the Japanese market, Vietnam and Japan have signed a strategic partnership agreement Japan is the second largest economy after the US and the 21st largest ODA donor for Vietnam Therefore, promoting trade activities is beneficial for both countries However, since this is a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, not merely a free trade agreement, in addition to goods, there are also services that will be liberalized Investments of one country in another will be protected And there are many other economic cooperation contents This is an opportunity for Vietnamese goods to enter the Japanese market and at the same time a big challenge for Vietnam because it has to compete with high-tech products from Japan Therefore, besides maintaining traditional export products, Vietnam must introduce new products with high technology content For the EU market: Until now, the EU has expanded to 27 member countries It is the largest and most closely operated economic union in the world The union is also the most prosperous commercial region in the world In recent years, the growth rate of Vietnam's exports to the EU market has been higher than the growth rate of imports Therefore, Vietnam becomes a surplus exporter with this market Vietnam's policy towards this market needs to be maintained this market by improving the competitiveness of Vietnamese exports At the same time, it is necessary to take advantage of and take advantage of the knowledge and high technology of this market For the Chinese market Due to its geographical location and population, the Chinese market is Vietnam's big market Chinese products are cheap and suitable for Vietnamese people, so Vietnamese products of the same type have to compete fiercely with Chinese products In the last years, Vietnam has become a large trade deficit country of China In addition, other markets such as ASEAN countries, CIS and other continents also play an important role for Vietnamese products Therefore, we must continue to strengthen intra-ASEAN trade policy while restoring and expanding relations with CIS countries Product policy: Vietnam still has to maintain traditional products but must improve the quality of products to maintain export markets At the same time create new products with high technology content to compete in existing and new markets 3.3.8 Focusing on improving the quality of human resources and promoting the development of science and technology for the industrialization process CNH 5.Improve human resources From the experiences of Thailand and the reality of Vietnam, it is necessary to solve some of the following problems in order to strongly develop human resources: Firstly, reforming educational management thinking is an issue that needs to be carried out first To renovate education, education managers must first change their thinking before forcing educators to change their thinking Only then can Vietnam's education reform be radically and strongly reformed Second, carry out education reform systematically Systematic education reform means that reform is not only aimed at a particular stage of the training process, but must be reformed as a whole from the general education, vocational training and university levels Because if we only focus on education at the university level, we will probably only the top Because we all know that the output of this level is the input of the next level Third, improve the quality of training according to international standards In the process of integration, improving the quality of human resources to international level is of special importance Through raising the international level, we have the opportunity to compare and compete with other countries for high quality human resources In the immediate future, bring Vietnam's education quality to the regional level and then move up to the world level 6.Strengthening the development of science and technology to serve the process of producing export goods From the reality of Vietnam, we see that Vietnam needs to take the following steps: ... reference for the export process in Vietnam today That''s why I chose the topic: "EXPORTING GOODS BY THAILAND IN THE PERIOD 2015- 2022&SUGGESTIONS TO VIETNAM" as my research content The research’s... prevention of the Covid-19 epidemic in many countries in 2020 CHAPTER 2: THE STATE OF EXPORTING GOODS BY THAILAND IN THE PERIOD 2015- 2022 2.1 .Thailand? ??s export turnover in the period 2015- 2022 1 .The first... comes to exporting, there are two main types - direct exporting and indirect exporting Direct exporting is a type of exporting where the company directly sells products to overseas customers All the