Cac yeu to anh hu''''dng den viec chon trUofne dai hoc cua hoc sinh trung hoc pho thong d Dong bang song Culi Long LE THI CAiVl DAN* DIEP THANH TCING" Tom ta t Muc tieu c&a nghien cffu ndy Id nhdm nhdn d[.]
Cac yeu to anh hu'dng den viec chon trUofne dai hoc cua hoc sinh trung hoc thong d Dong bang song Culi Long LE THI CAiVl DAN* DIEP THANH TCING" Tom tat Muc tieu c&a nghien cffu ndy Id nhdm nhdn dien md hinh phu hgp di lUdng mffe dnh hudng c&a cdc yiu tdtdc ddng din quyet djnh lffa chgn trudng dgi hgc cua hgc sinh trung hgc phd thdng tgi Dong bang sdng C&u Long (DBSCL) Kit qud cho thdy, y djnh chgn trudng dgi hgc cua hgc sinh chju sff dnh hudng bdi cdc nhdm nhdn td: (1) Truyen thdng gidn tiip, (2) Ca hdi viec ldm vd (3) Ca hdi trung tuyin Dffa tren tdc dgng c&a ba nhdm nhdn tdndy, nghien cffu ggi y rdng cdc trUdng dgi hgc cdn sff dting nhiiu cdch tiip can linh hogt di gidi thieu thdng tin din ngUdi hgc, qua dd giup ngUdi hgc cd ca hdi quyit djnh dung viec lffa chgn trudng dgi hgc Tuf khoa: quye't djnh chgn trudng, md hinh cdu true tuyen tinh, Dong bdng sdng Cffu Long Summary This study aims to identify a proper model to evaluate determinants of high school students' choice of university in Mekong delta The outcome reveals that high school students' intention of university is affected by three factors including (1) Indirect communicaton, (2) Job opportunities and (3) Admission opportunities Through these factors, it is indicated that universities should apply various methods to introduce their curriculum, which may support student's in right decisions Keywords: university choice, structural equation model, Mekong delta GlCfl T H I E U Tai Viet Nam, giao diic dai hpc ludn dttpc quan tam hang dau chie'n Ittdc phat trien nguon nhan life Trong dd, sif phu hpp gitta cung, cau cua thi trttdng Iao ddng la mpt nhttng van de trpng tara Tuy nhien, so vdi cac vung khac, ty le tha't nghiep HilNH 1: MO HINH NGHIEN Cu'a Moj quan h? anli hitdng L NiSng Iyc, dieu kien \- ^ •^^ I mtusinpc "*" Co hfli tinmg lai Truycti thong cua tnidng d^i hpc Quyet djnh |\ dai hoc XL MgiJon: Mh6m tac gia d^ va thie'u viec lam d vung DBSCL ludn tri d mtte cao nha't ca nttde Nguyen nhan chinh cd the la cdng tac tuyen sinh chtta bam sat chat che nhu cau ciia ngttdi hpc Do vay, nghien cttu se xac dinh cac ye'u to'anh httdng de'n y dinh va quyet dinh lifa chpn ttttdng dai hpc cua hpc sinh trung hpc phd thdng vdi cac dieu kien dac thu cua vung DBSCL Thdng qua dd, nghien culi dttdc ky vpng se mang lai cac hara y chinh sach nham thuc day hieu qua ciaa cac chttdng tnnh huyen thdng cua cac trttdng dai hpc, cung cap thdng tin day du va phu hdp, giup ngttdi hpc xac dinh va lifa chpn dung chuyen nganh va trttdng dao tao TS Tttfdng Dai htjc Tra Vinh I Email: dttung@tvu.edu.vn Njd niidn hdi: 15/11/2016: Ngdy piidn bieu: 09/12/2016: Ngdy diivSt ddng: 12/12/2016 102 ^ ca s d LY THUYET VA MO HINH NGHIEN Ctru Dtta hen nghien cuh di trttdc cua cac tac gia Chapman (1981), Kamol Kitsawad (2013) , ke't hpp vdi dac diem cd ban cua hpc sinh trung hpe phd thdng va giao diic dai hpc tai DBSCL, nhdra tac gia de xua't md Wnh nghien cffu the hien nhdm ye'u td tac dpng de'n quye't dinh ltta chpn trttdng dai hpc (Hinh 1), bao gora: Mdi quan he anh httdng; Nang life, dieu kien; Dac diera trttdng dai hpc; Cd hpi tttdng lai; Truyen thdng cua trttdng dai hpc PHITONG P H A P NGHIEN ClfU BANG 1: CAC BIEN TRONG MO HINH NGHIEN CCTU Ky hi$u Bid'n quan sat OHAHl Do gia dinh (ba, me, anh, chi, ngtfdi than) dinh htfdng Mo'i quan he 0HAH2 Do thay, co giao d trtfdng THPT dinh htfdng anh hu'dng 0HAH3 Theo ldi khuyen cua chuyen gia ttf van (QHAH) 0HAH4 Theo Idi khuyen ban be DDTHl Trtfdng co danh tieng DDTH2 Trtfdng co nhieu nganh dao tao da dang DDTH3 Chtfdng trinh dao tao cua trtfdng phu hdp nhu cau xa hoi DDTH4 Trtfdng co doi ngu giang vien noi tieng DDTH5 Trtfdng co nhieu sinh vien noi tieng Dac diem DDTH6 Cd sd vat chat, trang thiet bi hien dai tru'dng dai hoc Trtfdng co che'dd hgc bong va cac chinh sachtfudai cho sinh (DDTH) DDTH7 vien theo hoc DDTH8 Trtfdng cd ky tuc xa h6 trd chd d cho sinh vien DDTH9 Trtfcftig CO nhieu hoal dong ngoai khoa (ve van nghe, the thao ) DDTH 10 Trtfdng toa lac d pho' Idn DDTH 11 Khuon vien cua trtfdng rong rai Hoc phi cua nha trtfcfng phu hdp vdi kha nang ^ chinh cua gia dinh NLDKl NLDK2 Trtfdng cd vi tri thuan ldi cho viec di lai NLDK3 Nang life, dieu Trtfdng cd nganh nghe dao tao phu hdp vdi nang ltfc NLDK4 kien (NLDK) Trtfdng cd nganh nghe dao tao phu hdp vdi sd thich NLDK5 Trtfdng cd bac, he dao tao phu hdp NLDK6 Trtfdng cd nganh dao tao ha'p dan CHTLl Ty le choi cua nha trtfdng phu hdp vdi kha nang Diem chuan tuyen sinh nganh hoc cua trtfdng phti hdp vdi kha nang CHTL2 C(3 hdi tie'p can, co sat vdi mdi trtfdng thtfc te qua trinh hoc CHTL3 Cd hoi ttfdng Cd hoi tie'p can cac chinh sach ho trd va hoc bong ttfdng lai CHTL4 lai (CHTL) CHTL5 Cd hoi dtfdc trang bi ky nang dap iSig nhu cau thtfc te xa hoi CHTL6 Cd hoi tiep tuc hoc tap len cao ttfdng lai CHTL7 Cd hdi tim kiem dtfdc viec lam cao sau tot nghiep CHTL8 Cd hdi CO Ihu nhap cao sau td't nghiep TTTHl Do da dtfdc den tham quan trtfc tiep tai trtfdng Do da cd thdng tin ve trtfdng tif hoat ddng ttf van tai trtfdng THPT TTTH2 Doi ngu ttf van myen sinh cua trtfdng nhiet tinh, an ttfdng TTTH3 Do da CO thdng tin ve trtfdng tren cac phtfdng tien truyen TTTH4 Truyen thong thong (tivi, radio ) cua trtfdng dai Do da CO thdng tin ve trtfdng qua gidi thieu tren bao chi, cac tai lieu TTTH5 in ah khac hoc (TTTH) Do da dtfdc gidi thieu ve trtfdng thdng qua cac hoat dong ttf TTTH6 van tuyen sinh Dl dang tiep can cac thdng tin ve trtfdng qua Website cija trtfdng TTTH7 De dang tie'p can thdng tin ve trtfdng qua mang xa hdi (facebook ) TTTH8 Ban da tim hieu trtfdng dai hoc rat ky ODI Ban da so sanh trtfdng dai hgc vdi cac trtfdng dai hgc QD2 khac rat can than Quyet dinh Ban nghi rang trtfdng dai hpc phiJ hdp vdi ban hdn cac trtfdng dai chon trtfdng QD3 hoc khac (QD) Ban cho rang chon trtfdng dai hoc la hdp ly 0D4 Ban da quye't dinh chon trtfdng dai hoc 0D5 Ban se gidi thieu cho ban be ciing chon trtfdng 0D6 TSn nhom Nghien ctJu thttc hien thdng qua hai bttdc: Nghien ciJu sd bd bang phttdng phap dinh tinh nhara xac dinh cac ye'u td va cac bie'n stt dung thang Nghien cuh chinh thttc dttpc tie'n hanh bang phttdng phap dinh Ittdng vdi ky thuat thu thap dtt lieu thdng qua dieu tra bang phie'u khao sat Cd 43 bie'n quan sat dttdc tdng hdp bang hdi chinh thttc vdi cac ky hieu tttdng ttng dttpc trinh bay hong Bang Do dia ban nghien cttu cua de tai kha rpng, nen ngoai viec gtti bang hdi trttc hep den dap vien, thi phdng van qua intemet cung dttpc thijfc hien de tbuan hen cho viec thu thap dtt lieu Vdi kich cd mau phat la 1.000 dttdc tien hanh ttt thang 03/2016 de'n thang 09/2016, sau thu thap va lam sach, sd Ittdng mau hdp le cdn 648 de dtta vao xtt ly Dtt lieu sau dttpc thu thap va ma hda se dttpc danh gia dp tin cay cua tbang bang he sd'tin cay Cronbach's Alpha Tie'p dd la phan tich nhan td kham pha (EFA) nham thu nhd va tdm tat dtt lieu de dtta vao cac thu tiic phan tich da bie'n; phan tich nhan td khang dinh (CFA) nham kiem dinh stf phu hdp cua dtt lieu Ngu6n: Mhon dd'i vdi md hinh Ittdng; phan tich rnd hinh ca'u true tuye'n tinh (SEM) de kiem quan bie'n tdng > 0,3, do dttpc chap nhan ve mat tin dinh va lifa chpn md binh nghien cttu cay Tuy nhien, bien NLDK6 hi loai ke't qua khdng phu hdp; kiem dinh Bootshap de danh dat yeu cau gia dp tin cay cua cac ttde Ittpng Phdn ttch EFA md hinh nghien cdu Dau tien, nhdm tac gia tie'n hanh phan tich nhan td vdi cac bie'n thupc nhdm ye'u to anh httdng den quye't dinh chpn trttdng dai bpc Ket qua EFA lan cho tha'y, KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU cd nhan td dttpc trich Tuy nhien, tdng phttPng sai trich chl giai thich dttdc 49,5% bie'n thien cua dtt lieu Phdn tich Cronbach's Alpha Ke't qua sau kiem dinh ca nhdm va mdt sdbien cd he sd'tai nhan td< 0,5 thanb ri"'^" '^^^ tbang deu cd he sd Nhdm tac gia tiep tuc phan tich EFA lai va lan Ittpt Cronbach's Alpha > 0,6 va he so tttdng loai tttng bie'n khdng dat yeu cau, bao gdm: DDTH2, Forecast Review 103 BANG 2: MA TRAN XOAY CAC YEG TO ANH HCTCiNG DEN GiaYET DINH CHON TRCldNG DAI HOC Factor TTTH8 ,776 TTTH7 ,773 TTTH4 684 TTTH5 661 TTTH6 565 CHTL7 846 CHTL8 809 CHTL5 ,603 CHTL3 493 DDTH9 ,812 DDTH8 ,689 DDTH 11 ,628 DDTH 10 576 DDTH7 ,515 TTTH2 751 TTTH I ,745 TTTH3 ,583 DDTHl 691 DDTH4 ,600 DDTH5 ,528 CHTLl ,795 CHTL2 ,740 BANG iVIA TRAN XOAY CAC YEU TO QUYET DINH CHON TRCldNG DAI HOC Factor 0DCT3 785 0DCT2 740 ODCT4 591 ODCTI 560 0DCT.5 856 0DCT6 639 Ngu6n: Nghien cij'u cua nhom tac gia HINH 2: MO HINH NGHIEN Ctill DIEG CHINH Nguon: Nhom tac gia dS xuat QHAH3, NLDK3, DDTH3, NLDK2, NLDK5, NLDKl QHAH4, CHTL4, NLDK4, DDTH6, CHTL6, QHAHl' QHAH2, CHTL3 Ke't qua EFA lln cud'i cho tha'y, nhdm nhan td dttpc binb thanb vdi he sd tai nhan td deu > 0,5; Eigenvalue deu > I; tdng phttdng sai trich giai thich dttpc 51,882% bie'n thien cua dtt lieu- he sd KMO bang 0,873 va Sig (Bartiett's Test) = 0,000 Ke't qua EFA lan cudi cho tha'y, ngoai cac bie'n bi loai ra, khdng cd stt xao trpn vi tri gitta cua cac phan gitta cac nhdm ye'u to, nhien lai cd stt chia tach cac phan thang (Bang 2) Theo do, nhdm yeu td mdi binh bao gdm cac bie'n va dttdc dat ten lai nhtt sau: Truyen thdng trttc tiep: TTTHl, TTTH2, TTTH3; Truyen thdng gian tie'p: TTTH8, TTTH7, TTTH4, TTTH5, TTTH6; Chinh sach - vi tri cua trttdng hpc: DDTH9, DDTH8, DDTHl 1, DDTHIO, 104 DDTH7; Cd hdi viec lam: CHTL7, CHTL8, CHTL5; Danii tie'ng cua trtfdng hoc: DDTHl, DDTH4, DDTH5; Cd hdi trung tuyen: CHTLl, CHTL2 Tiep theo, nhdm tac gia tie'n hanh EFA vdi nhdm ye'u td quye't dinh chpn trttdng dai hpc Ke't qua EFA cho thay, cd nhdra ye'u to mdi hinh vdi cac bie'n cd he so' tai nhan td deu > 0,5; Eigenvalue > 1; tdng phttdng sai trich giai thich dttdc 51,37% bieh thien cua dtt heu; he so' KMO = 0,766 va Sig (Bartiett's Test) = 0,000 Nhtt vay, ttt nhdm ye'u to' Quye't dinh chpn trttdng dai bpc, sau EFA da binh nhdm mdi (Bang 3) bao gdm cac bie'n sau: Y dinh chpn trttdng: QDCT3, QDCT2, QDCT4, QDCTl; Quye't dinh chon trttdng: QDCT5, QDCT6 Ttt ke't qua phan tich EFA, md hinh nghien cuh dttdc dieu chinh lai nhtf HMi Khi dd, cac gia thuye't cua md hinh dttdc dtta nhtt sau: Gia thuye't HI: Cac boat dpng truyen thdng trttc tie'p cd anh httdng tich cttc de'n y dinh chpn trttdng; Gia thuye't H2: Cac boat dpng huyen thdng gian tiep cd anh httdng tich cttc de'n y dinh chpn trttdng; Gia thuye't H3: Cac trttdng cd chinh sach cang phong phu, vi tri cua trttdng hpc cang thuan tien, xu htfdng chpn trtfdng cang cao; Gia thuyet H4: Trtfdng dtfpc danh gia la cd cp hpi viec lam sau tdt nghiep cao, xu htfdng chpn trtfdng cang cao; Gia thuye't H5: Danh tie'ng cua htfdng dai hpc cang tdt, xu htfdng chpn trtfdng cang cao; Gia thuye't H6: Cd hpi trung tuyen vao trtfdng eang cao, xu httdng chpn trttdng cang cao; Gia thuye't H7: Y dinh tac dpng tich cifc de'n quye't dinh chon trttdng dai hoc Phdn tich CFA Kiem djnh thang cdc yiu td anh din quyit djnh chgn trUdng Ke't qua CFA cho tha'y, trpng sd cac bie'n quan sat deu dat chuan cho phep (>= 0,5) va P = 0,000 Nhtt vay, cac bie'n quan sat dung de Itfdng phan cua thang dat dtfpc gia tri hpi hi vdi md hmh dtfdc hieu chinb Ben canh dd, cac chi so'dung de danh gia mtte dp phu hpp cua md hinh ddu dat yeu cau vdi GFI = 0,936, TLI = 0,920, RMSEA = 0,054, Chi-square = 483,255 va Chi-square/df = 2,877 ItlfflfM Kiim djnh thang Y djnh chgn trudng vd Quye't djnh chgn trUdng Hinh eho tha'y, md hinh cd bac ttt va phu hpp vdi dfl lifiu thttc te' vdi Chi-square/df = 1,067, CFI = 1,000, TLI = 0,999 va RMSEA = 0,010 Cac trpng sd cua thang >= 0,5 nen deu dat yeu cau Kiim dinh SEM Ke't qua ttde Ittpng md hinh ca'u true tuye'n tinh cho tha'y, mo hinb cd cac chi so' deu dat yeu cau vdi Chi-square/ df= 2,710, CFI = 0,915, TLI = 0,08 va RMSEA = 0,051 Ke't qua dde Ittpng cac tham so chinh cho tha'y, so cac nhdm dtta vao kiem dinh cd nhdra nban to' anh httdng den y dinh chpn trttdng Ben canh do, y dinh chpn trtfdng cd anh httdng den quye't dinh chpn trttdng va cac mdi quan he dat dttpc y nghia thd'ng ke (P < 0,05), cu the: Ba nhdm nhan td: Truyen thong gian tie'p, Cd hpi viec lara, Cd hpi trung tuyen deu cd P < 0,05 va deu raang da'u dttdng Vl vay, cd the ket luan cac ye'u td cd anh httdng thuan chieu de'n Y dinh chpn trttdng (chap nhan gia thuyet H2, H4, H6) Trong do, Truyen thdng gian tie'p cd anh httdng Idn nha't de'n y dinh chpn trttdng cua hpc sinh vdi trpng so'chuan hda la 0,516, ke de'n la Cd hpi trung tuyen vdi trpng sd 0,287 va cp hpi viec lam cd ttpng so' la 0,171 Cac nhan to cdn lai gdm: Chinh sach - vi tri, Danh tie'ng, hay Truyen thdng trtfc tiep lai khdng dat ratte y ngbia thdng ke de xac nhan cac gia thuyet HI, H3, H5, do cac gia thuye't bi bac bd Ngoai ra, ket qua kiem dinh md'i quan he gitta y dinh va quye't dinh chpn trttdng hong md hinh SEM cung cho tha'y, md'i quan he dat dttpc y nghia thdng ke (P < 0,05), vdi trpng sd'hdi quy dat 0,722 da chl y dinh chpn trttdng cd tac ddng manh, cung chieu den quyet dinh chpn httdng (chap nhan gia thuye't H7) BANG 4: KET QUA KIEM DINH BOOTSTRAP SE ydinh_ ^ ttgiantiep chontruong ydinh_ ^ chvieclam chontruong ydinh_ •e chtrungtuyen chontruong qdinh_ •e ydinh_ chontruong chontruong SE-SE Mean Bias SE-Bias 0,002 -0,500 0,062 0,001 0,063 0,001 0,171 0,002 0,000 0,06 0,001 0,290 0,002 0,000 0,05 0,001 0,721 0,002 0,000 0,436 -0,001 ^'guon; hJghien c i ; c„c nr,' Kiem dinh dg tin cay cua ffdc IffOng bdng Bootstrap Phttdng phap Bootstrap dttdc stt dung de kiem dinh cac ttde Ittdng md hinh md binh cud'i cung vdi sd' raSu lap lai la N = 1.000 Ke't qua ttde Ittpng ttt 1.000 mSu dttpc tinh trung binh kem theo dp chech dttdc trinh bay Bang Tri tuyet dd'i CR rat nhd so vdi 1,96, nen cd the ndi la dp chech la rat nhd; dong thdi Ididng cd y nghia thdng ke d dp tin cay 95% Nhtt vay, ta cd the ket luan la cac ttde Ittpng ttong md hinh cd the tin cay dttpc KET LUAN Ket qua nghien cttu cbi rang, cd nhdm ye'u td anh httdng den y dinh chpn trttdng dai hpc cua hpc sinh trung hpc phd thdng d DBSCL, bao gdm: Truyen thdng gian tiep, Cd hpi trung tuyen va CP hpi viec lam Trong do, Truyen thdng gian tiep cd vai trd quan trpng viec tac dpng den y dinh cua ngttdi hpc Nhtt vay, de tbuc day hieu qua cua cac chttPng trinh tuyen sinh va dinh httdng ngttdi bpc ltta chpn hdp ly, cac trttdng dai hpc can cbu y de'n cac pbttpng tien truyen thdng gian tiep thdng qua cac phttdng tien truyen thdng va intemet Dd'i vdi CP hdi triing tuyen va Cd hpi viec lam, cac trttdng dai hpc tai DBSCL nen thd'ng ke va cap nhat rpng rai thdng tin ve diem chuan tuyen sinh cua cac nganh, ty le chpi (canh tranh) de bpc sinh tham khao va lifa chpn Cac trttdng dai bpc cung nen tang ettdng hdp tac vdi cac doanh nghiep viec xay dttng chttdng trinh dao tao cd the dap ttng dttpc nhu cau cua thi trttdng Iao dpng, tao dieu kien cho sinh vien tie'p can thiJc te va cd mdi trttdng thttc hanh cac kie'n thttc da hpc, cung nhtt cd bttdc chuan bi cac ky nang can thie't cho cdng viec sau td't nghiep trttdng.O TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Hoang Trpng, Chu Nguyin Mpng Ngpe (2008) Phdn tich dff lieu nghien cffu vdi SPSS, Nxb Thd'ng ke Chapman, D W (1981) A model of student college choice The Journal of Higher Education, 52(5), 490-505 Kamol Kitsawad (2013) An investigation offactor affecting high school student's choice of univer ''' 77!a!7anii,University of WoUongong, Thailand J ^.ionderiene, & A Khmaviciene (2013) Insights into Lithuanian Students' choice of unive;and study program in Management and Economics, Management, 18(1), 1-22 •id Forecast Review CR 105 ... ye''u td anh httdng den y dinh chpn trttdng dai hpc cua hpc sinh trung hpc phd thdng d DBSCL, bao gdm: Truyen thdng gian tiep, Cd hpi trung tuyen va CP hpi viec lam Trong do, Truyen thdng gian... DDTH5 Trtfdng co nhieu sinh vien noi tieng Dac diem DDTH6 Cd sd vat chat, trang thiet bi hien dai tru''dng dai hoc Trtfdng co che''dd hgc bong va cac chinh sachtfudai cho sinh (DDTH) DDTH7 vien... gian tie''p cd anh httdng Idn nha''t de''n y dinh chpn trttdng cua hpc sinh vdi trpng so''chuan hda la 0,516, ke de''n la Cd hpi trung tuyen vdi trpng sd 0,287 va cp hpi viec lam cd ttpng so'' la 0,171