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LIEN KET KINH TE DONG A: VAI NET VE LY LUAN VA THITC TIEN DdlHjANir Tdm tat: Cd the ndi, neu dp dung nguyen bdn nhiing ly thuyit truyin thdng vdn dugc dimg gidi thich cho thuc tiin lien kit kinh ti tgi Chdu Au, Bdc My trudc day, se cd mdt sd vdn de lien quan din thuc tiin lien kit kinh ti Dong A hiin khdng tim dugc cdu trd ldi thda ddng Diiu ndy cho thdy si^ cdn thiet cita nhiing cdch thUc tiep can mat han vd sdu sdc han vi phucmg diin ly lugn qud trinh nghien citu Xudt phdt tic vdn di ndy, bdi viit di cgp tdi mgt sd ly ludn vi liin kit kinh ti khu vuc, cd Chu nghia Lien khu vifc (Interregionalism), qua dd liin hi tdi thuc tien xu hudng Uin ket kinh te tgi Ddng A hiin Tit khda: Lidn kdt kinh td Ddng A, Mang sdn xuit, Chu nghTa Lien khu vyc rong ITnh vyc lidn kdt kinh td khu vyc, khdng chi trdn thyc tidn md cd vd phuang didn Iy ludn, Chau Au vd My vdn thudng di trudc Chau A ndi ehung va Ddng A ndi ridng Cd thd thiy, cac ly thuydt chinh lidn quan ddn lidn kdt kinh td khu vuc quan hd qude td va kinh te chinh tti thd gidi cho ddn vin Id edc hpc gid Au My phat tridn Tuy nhidn theo nhidu y kidn, ttong dd cd y kidn cua GS Dai hpe Cornell Peter J Katzenstein, mdt nha nghidn cim ky cyu vd chu nghTa khu vyc Chau A, nhirng ly thuydt truydn thdng van dupc dp dyng dd gidi thich cho thyc tidn hdi nhap cua phuang Tdy, ddc bidt la Tdy Au khdng dd dp dung vdo chu nghia khu vyc tai Chau A ' Qud thyc vd mgt thyc tidn, tidn tridn cua lidn kdt kinh td khu vyc tai Ddng A phirc tgp horn so * ThS, Vien Nghifin ciiu D6ng Bac ' "Introduction' Asian Regionalism in Comparative Perspective," in Peter J Katzenstein and Takashi Shiraishi, eds Network Power; Japan and Asia (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997), http://www.pkauen stein.org/resources/view/8 NGHIEN Cflu D O N G B ^ C A sd 1(167) 1-2015 vdi Chdu Au vd cdng khdng hodn todn tuong ddng vdi cae khu vyc khde Chdng hgn, khdng ddt Idn hdng dau myc tieu dgt ddn mpt khudn khd lien kdt cd tich hpp eao nhu Lien minh chdu Au (EU), hay sy phat tridn cua mang sdn xuit da thiic diy mgnh me mdi quan he tuong hd gitta cdc quoc gia, qud trinh hdi nhdp ciia cdc nudc ttong khu vyc Ddng A cd xu hudng tidn tridn ddng thdi, song song vdi nhiing ddi tac ngodi khu vyc, tao mdt edu tnic lidn kdt phdn ldp, Ndu nhu tit cudi thdp nidn 1980, todn cdu hda vd khu vyc hda Id nhung xu hudng chu dgo cua kinh td thd gidi, thi tir ddu the ky XXI, ttao Iuu lidn kdt Lien khu vuc (Jnterregionalism hay Xuydn khu vyc: Transregional) lgi la xu thd "thdng tri" quan hd kinh td qudc td, vd xu thd ndy khdng ehi ndi bat md edn tap trung chu ydu tgi Ddng A ' * , "^n-/VHl#ttôri>Tit6ôite-&-B*'t' MffiiTPPâi*bnmitit * Bai giing "Regional and Local Economics" ciia Dave Clark, Centre for Local and Regional Economic Analysis, University of Portsmouth (2010) ' Funcllonalism: Cdn gdi li ChO nghia co ning, Chu nghia hifu dgng, Chii nghTa thuc dung NGHIEN Cflu OdNG B M C fl, %6 1(167) 1-2015 S)i S:#SB,p.l29~131 " "Chu nghTa khu vuc cic trudng phii tigp can ly thuylf', Dinh Thi Hiln Luong, Trung lim Yin hda hoc L;^ luan vi LTng dung, Dai hoc Khoa hoc xi hdi va nhan vin, Dai hoc Qu6c gia TP Kh Chi Minh, 9/2011 41 Nghien citu khoa hoc Hdi (Mediterranean Union, dupc thidt lap vdo 13/7/2008) Cimg vdi chu nghTa toan cau hda va khu vyc hda, chu nghTa lidn khu vuc hidn da ttd mpt xu hudng ndi bat ttong thdi gian gdn ddy Tuy nhidn, ttdn khia canh hpe thudt, ddy ed thd xem nhu mdt ITnh vyc mdi, vd ddn thdm ehi vdn chua cd mdt dinh nghTa rd rang vd chu nghTa lidn khu vyc, mac dil nhiing thuat ngii lidn quan nhu ttansregionalism, bi-regionalism, megaregionalism, inter-continentalism, da xudt hipn ngdy edng nhidu Nghidn ciru lidn quan ddn chii nghTa lien khu vyc eung khd it, dd phdn nhidu Id eac nghidn ciiu lidn quan ddn Hpi nghi A Au (ASEM) Trong sd rit it nghidn cuu mdi lidn quan ddn chu nghia lidn khu vyc, Heiner Hdnggi, Ralf Roloff vd Jiirgen dd nhdn dinh "ehu nghia lidn khu vuc la mpt hidn tuong mdi ITnh vyc quan he qudc td" vd dua logi hinh lidn quan ddn cua ehu nghTa lidn khu vyc dupc the chd hda'^ Cdn Vinpd K Aggawal va Edward A Fogarty da chi cac hlnh thuc eua chu nghTa lidn khu vuc, ttong dd cd hinh thue thur ba la Chu nghTa Xuydn khu vye (Trans-regionalism)'^ Hidn nay, tgi Ddng A, ttong bdi cdnh tridn vpng lidn kdt khu vyc chua ro rdng, ed thd thiy xu thd dp ddo ttong quan he kinh td qude td chinh Id lien kdt lidn khu vyc " Heiner Hanggi, Ralf Roloff and JOrgen Rilland (eds.), "Inlerregionalism and International Relations", 2006 htlp://www.cap.lmu.de/lransatlantic/dawnload/Haenggi.P " Vinod K Aggawal and Edward A Fogarty (eds.), "£[/ Trade Strategies.Between Regionalism and Globalism", Palgrave Macmillan 2004, p 42 Thuc trang lien ket kinh tl tai Song A 2.1 vi phuang di$n thuc ti - Sif hlnh cda mgng san xudt khu vuc Tai Ddng A, lidn kdt kinh td khu vuc ttdn phucmg didn thyc td (de facto) didn trudc ca phuang tlidn ludt dinh (de jure) vdi sy gia tang thuang mgi, ddu tu khu vye thdng qua mang ludi sdn xuat khu vyc trdn eo sd phan cdng Iao ddng cae TNCs dan ddt Lidn quan ddn chu nghTa chiic nang mdi d ttdn, Shindo Eiichi''' dd chi nhdn td chu yen thuc diy lidn kdt kinh td Ddng A Thii nhdt, sy phat ttidn cua phuang tidn thdng tin, van tdi da thuc diy lupng giao dich thuong mai hang hda vd sdn phim trung gian khidn sy phy thudc Idn vd mdt kinh td gitta cdc qudc gia ttong khu vyc gia tdng, keo theo su gin kdt vd mgt vdn hda, yd hOi Thii hai each mgng thdng tin dd thiic diy sy hinh vd phdt tridn cua xd hdi trdn ndn tdng tti thirc, md rdng tang ldp ttung luu, ddng thdi tgo rg nhung bidn ddi lidn quan ddn xa hdi dan sy Thii ba la su thay ddi vd hinh thuc phdn cdng Iao ddng qudc td Ngodi vide can eu vdo cdc ly thuyet lidn quan ddn mang sdn xudt khu vye kd ttdn, thdng qua vide xem xet ty Id thuong mai ndi khdi (m^t chi tidu quan ttpng dd danh gia muc dp lidn kdt kinh td), ta ciing cd the thiy rd hinh thiic vd muc dp tidn tridn cua lidn kdt kinh td tai Ddng A ttdn phuang didn thyc td (Hinh 1, dudng qua trdm) " i t ằ ô - ã ipJIIiSllg, 2006, rarv^TftlisHSSrSsp •fSJl H * i i i S f f ^ t t p.7~p.l0 NGHIEN Cflu DdNG BAC ^ sd 1(167) 1-2015 Nghien citu khoa hoc Hinh 1: Ty If thvong mai ndi khii ciia Bong A so vdi cac khu virc khac Dan vi: % ^ _ / ' • ^ " - ^ ' - • - ^ -NAFTA -MERCOSUR —Linear (JR7->"7; -Unear (EU) - L r e a r (NAFTA) CAil thich: - Ddng A bao gdm ASEAN (trir Myanma vd Brunei), Trung-Nbdt-Hdn, Ddi Loan, Hdng Kdng EU gdm 27 nudc - Cdng thdc tinh ty Id thuang mai ndi khdi = Kim nggch xuat nhap khiu npi bp khu vyc / Kim ngach xuit khdu ciia khu vye dd thi trudng the gidi x 100 Ngudn: Tdc gid lap tic sd lieu cita RIETI-tid Tai EU, xu hudng phdn edng Iao ddng ttong cac ngdnh cdng nghidp dupc tidn hdnh gitta cdc qudc gia cd ttinh dp phat tridn khac nhu Due, Phap, Anh, Italia, hinh thdnh ndn phuang thuc thuong mgi hdng ngang Tgi Bdc My, quan he kinh td-tbuong mgi song phuomg vdi sidu cudng sd cd y nghTa rat quan ttpng vdi cdc vidn cdn lai, thuong mai va diu tu ndi khdi cung dupc xuc tidn, nhidn vd miic dp chua thd ndi la tich cyc nhu Ddng A Cdn tgi Ddng A, ttong nhidu ITnh vyc da cd mpt md hinh ehuydn mdn hda theo chidu dpc dupc thidt lap Trong md hinh nay, vdi boat dpng diu tu ciia cac TNCs, mang san xuat khu vyc dd kdt ndi he thdng cir didm sdn xudt NGHIEN Cflu DdNG B^C A s61(167) 1-2015 theo mdt phuang thuc phdn cdng Iao dpng da ting, ttong dd quy ttinh san xuit dupe phdn chia (fragmentation) thdnh nhidu cdng doan nhd dat tai cde qudc gia cd trinh dp phat tridn vd mile dp thu nhap khde cdn cu ttdn CO sd nang luc cdng nghd vd lpi thd so sdnh cua ddu vdo qud trinh san xudt Thdng qua cdc qua ttinh nay, mang sdn xudt giup ndng eao nang sudt vd lpi ich cua ngudi tidu diing, ngoai cung thuc day ddu tu tryc tidp mdt cdch mgnh me, nhOng didu khdng chi cd lpi cho phia qudc gia nhdn ddu tu ma cd qudc gia dau tu, nghTa la bdt cd qudc gia nao ttong mgng ludi cung ddu hudng Ipi Bdi vdy md mang san xudt da khidn eho tinh chat thidu ddng nhdt vdn la 43 Nghien citu khoa hgc nhdn td cdn ttd ttd thdnh co sd, ddng iyc cua thd ndi thdi gian dd tat cd cac bipn phdp lidn lidn kdt kinh td khu vuc, khien khdng chi quan hodn tat se cdn rat xa so vdi dy kidn muc dp phy thudc giua cac nen kinh td gia Ngoai ra, ttdn thuc td AEC eung chi la mpt tdng md cd hpp tdc van hda, chinh tri cQng CO chd hdi nhdp hdng tuang ty hidp dinh ddi tdc kinh td (EPA) ma Nhgt Bdn dang xiic dupe ddy mgnh 2.2 vi phucmg diin thi chi (de jure) - tidn" - Cdc khudn khdASEAN+1 Stf hinh Ihanh cua cdc hiep dinh thucmg Vdi hgt nhdn Id ASEAN, sd hi|p dinh mgi tu Mpt nhdn td khde dd thue day tidn trinh thuong mai ty tgi Ddng A dd lidn tyc xudt hpi nhdp kinh td khu vye tai Ddng A thdi hidn vdi FTA vdi Trung Qudc (ACFTA) cd gian qua chinh la cdc thda thudn thuong mai hidu lye tu thang 7/2005 ddi vdi san pham ty gitta cdc chinh phu Quan sat tidn trinh hdng hda vd ndm 2006 ddi vdi dich vy; FTA lidn kdt kinh td khu vyc tgi Chdu Au tu sau vdi Han Qudc (AKFTA) cd hidu lye tir Chidn tranh Thd gidi thii hai, cd thd thiy thang 6/2007; FTA vdi Nhdt Bdn (AJCEP) ring, tgi Chdu Au, phuang dipn lidn kdt thd cd hidu lye tir thang 12/2008 Ngodi ra, Khu ehd chidm mdt vi thd dp ddo Mac du chdm vyc Mdu dich Ty ASEAN-An DO ban, song tgi Ddng A nhiing ndm gdn ddy (AIFTA) da dupc ky vdi muc tidu lgp cdng cd thd thdy tidn trinh hdi nhdp vd khia mdt khu vyc mgu dich ty vdo ndm 2015 cgnh the chd da cd nhiing bidn ehuydn manh vdi cdc nudc ASEAN (Singapore, md Ddc bidt bdi cdnh vdng ddm phan Malaysia, Indonesia, Thdi Lan, Brunei), va Doha ciia WTO van ttong tinh ttang bd tdc, nam 2016 ddi vdi CLMV vd Philippines cdc thda thudn thuong mgi ty khu vyc Hidp dinh Khu vyc Mdu dich Tu ASEANAusttaliaNew Zealand (RTA) da trd thdnh mdt xu thd tdt ydu (AANZFTA) dupe ky 2009 va bdt diu co - Khudn khd ASEAN Tgi Ddng A, eho ddn hdu nhu mdi chi hieu lye tu ddu nam 2010 cd mpt djnh chd lidn kdt kinh td khu vyc - Khudn khd ASEAN-i-3 nhdt cd thd so sdnh vdi cde khudn khd Udn ASEAN+3 Id mpt ca chd hpp tde gitta kdt chinh ttdn thd gidi la ASEAN Hien tgi ASEAN vd ba qudc gia Ddng Bde A Id Nhgt ASEAN dang nd lye hidn thyc hda muc tidu Bdn, Trung Quoc va Hdn Qudc Nam 2000, ttd thdnh Cpng ddng Kinh td ASEAN (AEC) tgi hpi nghi cip cao gitta ASEAN vdi ba vdo cudi ndm 2015 Tuy nhidn, vdi cdu hdi nudc Trung-Nbdt-Hdn, ASEAN+3 da chinh ring lipu tu 2015, AEC da ttd mpt thd thuc dupc thd chd hda, hudng tdi vide xdy chd tuong ty EU hay chua, thi cdu ttd Idi dyng mdt cdng ddng kinh td tai Ddng A dupe nhidu y kidn dua Id "Khdng" Ly thu nhdt, ASEAN khdng cd muc dich huting ' Xem them Ishikawa, Sukekawa "Cdng dong kinh li tdi mpt md hinh tich hpp cao nhu EU Thii ASEAN cd the Ira thdnh hat nhdn cda lien kit Odng A hay khong', JETRO, thing 8, 2009; The Nation, "Outgoing hai, mde dii cac thiet chd hdi nhdp se bit diu Surtn urges asean lo 'think regionally"', January 10, 2013; hogt dpng vdo cudi nam 2015, nhidn cd vaOl^ it, "SrLt> ASEAN i(!!)S*Pl*tr-^rO 44 NGHIEN Cflu D O N G B ^ C A s61(167) 1-201S Nghien citu khoa hoc ttong hrang lai Vd phia ASEAN thi khdng cd van dd gi Idn, nhidn vd phia cac nudc ldm Ddng Bdc A lgi rat khd tim dupc tidng ndi chung bdi nhttng rdo cdn vd lich su, chinh ttj, an ninh gdy trd ngai eho qua trinh thidt lap nhttng co chd hpp tdc Ddn nam 2002, Nhdm Tim nhin Ddng A (East Asia Vision Group) dd dd nghj ehuydn ASEAN+3 thdnh Hdi nghi cdp cao Ddng A (EAS) Cac qude gia thdnh vidn EAS hidn bao gdm ASEAN 10, Trung-Nhdt-Han, Australia, New Zealand, Nga, My va hai qudc gia cd kha ndng tham gia khac la Ddng Timor vd Papua New Guinea - Khuon kho ASEAN+6 Trong Han Qudc dua va Trung Qudc tdn thdnh khudn khd ASEAN+3 va Khu vyc thuong mai ty Ddng A (EAFTA), thi ddn ndm 2006 Nhat Bdn da dd xudt sang kidn Ddi tac kinh td toan dien Ddng A (CEPEA) nhdm xay dung khu vuc thuang mai tu Ddng A "md rpng" bao gdm 16 qudc gia ASEAN 10, Trung-NhdtHan, An Dp, Austtalia, New Zealand vdi ttpng tdm la thuc day thuang mgi ty thdng qua cat gidm thud quan, hop tac ttong ddu tu, sd bun tti tup va cac boat dong kinh td khac -TPPvdRCEP Tuy nhidn, cd thd thay rang cho den cd sang kidn ASEAN+3 (EAFTA) vd ASEAN+6 (CEPEA) ddu chua tidn ttidn nhu ky vpng Trong bdi canh dd, ddn nam 2011 nhttng xuc tidn nhdm hudng tdi thyc hidn FTA Tmng-Nhdt-Han (CJK FTA), RCEP vd TPP da mpt lan nOa chiing td ttao luu lien kdt kinh td khu vyc tgi Ddng A dang sdi ddng hon bao gid hdt Ddi tac Xuydn Thai NGHIEN Cflu D O N G B ^ C A z61(167) 1-2015 Binh Duang (TPP) la mdt dam phdn thuong mgi ty nhidu bdn vdi myc tidu thidt lap mpt khu vyc thuang mgi ty chung cho cdc nudc ddi tdc ttong khu vuc Chdu A Thai Binh Duong Cho ddn nay, da cd 12 nudc tham gia vdo dam phan TPP (gdm New Zealand, Brunei, Chile, Singapore, Austtalia, Peru, Hoa Ky, Malaysia, Vidt Nam, Canada, Mexico va Nhdt Bdn) Vd RCEP, ndu nhu Trung Qudc ung hd EAFTA (ASEAN+3) ttong dd ban chd cde vidn Id ASEAN, Trung Qudc, Nhdt Ban vd Hdn Qudc; Nhdt Ban lgi ung hd CEPEA (ASEAN+6) ttong dd bao gdm cd cdc qudc gia An Dp, Austtalia vd New Zealand, thi RCEP Id mdt hidp djnh thuang mgi ASEAN ddn dat nham lidn kdt cac ndn kinh td cua 16 qudc gia Chdu A-Thai Binh Duong Ndu thdnh hidn thyc RCEP se gdm hon ty ngudi, cd tdng GDP khoang 21 nghin ty USD, vd chidm khoang 40 phan ttdm tdng thuang mgi thd gidi RCEP cd thd cting cd vai ttd trung tdm cua ASEAN co cau kinh td khu vyc, hdi hda hda nhihig khde bipt giua cdc FTA ASEAN+I, thuc diy hdi nhdp kinh td khu vyc manh md hon, Iogi bd dan thud quan va cdc rdo cdn phi thud quan va dam bao tinh nhit qudn vdi cae quy tac cua WTO Nh|n xet danh gia Tu nhirng phan tich ttdn ddy cd thd thdy, tidn trinh lidn kdt kinh td Ddng A hidn cd thd dupc ly giai bdi nhttng ly thuydt truyen thdng va ly thuydt mdi vd lidn kdt kinh td khu vyc vdi nhiing each thiic tidp can sdu sdc hon Qua dd cd thd khdng dinh, mac du Ddng A vdn dupc xem Id khu vyc di sau ttong ITnh vyc lien kdt khu vyc, nhidn 45 Nghien citu khoa hgc phuang didn thd chd, da cd rdt nhidu khudn kho, sdng kidn lidn kdt kinh td khu vyc dupc khdi xudng td khodng nhiing ndm 1990 ddn nay, cho thay Ddng A dd ttd thdnh mOt ttong nhiing khu vyc cd boat dpng lidn kdt kinh td didn sdi ddng nhit thd gidi ban chyc ndm ttd lgi ddy, lidn kdt kinh td khu vyc tgi Ddng A da cd nhttng tidn trien hdt sdc linh hogt theo hudng da dang vd da tdng Vd phuang didn lien kdt thuc td, mang sdn xudt khu vyc vdn tidp tyc phdt tridn manh, mac du Nhdt Ban khdng cdn ndm vai ttd dpc tdn va thdng tti nhu trudc day Vd Hinh 2: Cac khuon kho, sang kien lien ket kinh te hidn tgi Ddng A Thuong dinh OA - ASEAN'8 (18 nuoc) ASEAN+6 (CEPEA, RCEP,16 nimc) APEC-FTAAP(21 niroc) ASEAN+3 (13 nuoc) A CJK-FTA (3 nvm:) ASEAN (10 nifdc) Trung Mekong (5 nudc) HongKong Oai Loan Papua New Guinea Han Campuchia Thdi Lan Lao_ Mianma Indonesia Phitippin V Singapore, Malaysia, Bruney Oxtrayiia Nev/ Zealand Vd ndu nhin nhgn rdng hon vd hpp tdc ndi chung tai Ddng A, cd thd chimg kidn rit nhidu khudn khd bao gdm ASEAN (10 qudc gia thdnh vidn, dupc thdnh lap ndm 1967), ASEAN+3 (13 thdnh vidn, 1997) SAARC (8 thdnh vidn, 1985), SCO (6 thdnh vidn, 2001), ACD (31 vidn, 2002), ASEAN+6/CEPEA (16 thdnh vidn, 2006), RCEP (16 thdnh vidn, 2012), ASEAN+8 (18 46 Canada Mexico Peru Cliile TPP(12nu'(jc) thdnh vidn, 2010), ASEAN+lO/Hpi nghj Ngoai trudng md rdng (20 thdnh vidn, 1976), APEC (21 thdnh vidn, 1989), ARF (25 vidn, 1994), TPP (12 vidn, 2005), Ddm phdn bdn (6 thdnh vidn, 2003), ASEM (46 qudc gia vd td chuc, 1996), (3 ddy ta thiy dupc rang, da cd it nhit khudn khd cd sy gdp mdt cua My, cho thiy sy hidn didn rd rdng cua cudng qudc sd I thd gidi ttdt NGHIEN Cdu D O N G BflC A s 1(167) 1-2015 • Nghien citu khoa hgc ty mdi cua Ddng A Ngodi ra, khdng chi ed My md Chdu Au ciing dang cd nhttng mdi quan tam vd cung to ldn den vdn dd hop tde va lidn kdt kinh td vdi khu vye Ddng A Hinh 3: Mang Iudi RTA tai Dong A: "Building Blocks" hay "Stumbling Blocks"? Nhat Ban Hoa K y T r u n g Qujdc EtT H a n Quoc ASEAN Ngudn: Sakata Mikio, "Lien kit kinh ti khu vuc tgi Ddng A vd Nhdt Bdn " (M^^i^TCD Mkl$&-!^itMt g ^ , Koyoshobo, 3/2012, p 77 Hinh the hidn mdt cdch tdng thd mgng dupc gpi la "Stumbling Blocks" gay ndn ludi RTA hidn gitta nhttng ddi tac chu nhiing can ttd, cdng vdi nhttng thu tuc phirc ydu cua Ddng A Dudng ke Id cdc RTA da tgp vd quy tdc xuat xii hidn thi cd thd cd hidu lye (it nhdt vd phuang didn giao dich thdy ttdi vdi ky vpng ban diu, lpi ich thuang mgi hang hda) Dudng ngdt quang la RTA mang lgi vd phuomg didn ty thuong cac RTA mdi ky kdt hogc dang ddm phdn mgi ed thd se ngdy pdng thu hep Dudng chdm la da cd trao ddi hodc chuong trinh nghidn ciiu chung Qua ddy cd thd thay, Tir nhOng phdn tich ttdn ddy cd thd thdy mdc du My, EU va Trung Qudc ddu da hoae dang cd nhung lidn kdt vdi ASEAN, Nhat ring, nhung ly thuydt chu ydu vd lidn kdt Ban, Han Qudc, thd nhung ca ba lai khdng kinh td khu vyc truydn thdng liy Chdu Au hd cd nhirng lidn he vdi vd phuang lam ttpng tdm cung nhu mdt sd ly thuydt dien RTA Cau hdi dupe ddt d ddy Id, ndu mdi ddi trdn ca sd kd thua va phat tridn vdy, thi lieu mang ludi RTA cd thyc su thuc theo tinh hinh bidn ddi eua thyc tidn cd thd diy thuang mgi da phuomg ttong khudn khd dp dung dd ly giai cho tidn trinh hpi nhdp cua WTO dudi vai trd bd khuydt nhdm kinh td Ddng A Trong sd dd, mdt sd ly hudng tdi ty hda thuang mai da phuang thuydt nhu Chii nghTa Lidn khu vyc vd co "Building Blocks" md Didu khodn 24 cua ban da khai qudt hda dupc hinh thdi, ban GATT dd quy djnh hay khdng Neu thay vi chit, myc tidu, xu hudng van dpng cua tidn cd vai trd bd khuydt lai ddn ddn phdn cyc trinh hdi nhdp kinh td Ddng A, ddc bidt Id hda ndn kinh td thd gidi bdi cdc RTA vdn ttong giai doan hidn Thye tidn Ddng A NOHliN COU DONQ B^C it sd 1(167) 1-2015 47 Nghien citu khoa hoc cilng ddng thdi chiing td rdng, ndu xu thd todn cdu hda la mpt "cudc chidn" gitta mdt bdn la cdc qudc gia phat tridn vdi vd la thd chd vd cac phuang thiic uu vidt mudn dp ddt nhiing tidu chudn cda minh cho phdn edn lai cua thd gidi, vdi mdt bdn la cae nudc nghdo chi cd vu ldn nhdt dd chdng lgi sy xdm chidm dd Id Iao ddng gid thip, ddn sd ddng due vd hang hda re mgt, thi xu thd Lidn khu vyc tai Ddng A hidn lgi eho thiy mpt "cudc chidn" khde nham muc dich bdo dam sinh tdn dang didn gitta cdc cudng qudc himg mgnh nhdt thd gidi TAI Lipu THAM KHAO J I I ^ - , ITPP h^r'ym FTA ffl iftôBMIiằ TTPP h B*đftằfJ s : * t t , 2013 ¥ ,gB8— iTPP h RCEPJ r*TlilIS K ô i e ằ J 91 ã^, 2013 Ơ ô B W - ^ B đ ^ , rPTA-fSAh'y'yi' 2014J B * K , Sô,2014Ơ 10 /KttS)*, rmmmmnmnt B * ô iijssisj , smm~ ã *Hmis.mm m iaS6ie«i^,S, - ffi»KS w a s S r K t f - J iC»S,2014^ 11 « * - * , IRCEP i S I T i ' T e i S K •&J , rB^F»mj No.632,2014 ^ M B ^mmmmm?zm,2Qu Vien Nghien ciiu Ddng Bdc A (2008), 12 ô * ? # Ơ , r r - : ^ T i : ¥ # i f i « « FTA Quan hi Vi$t Nam Nhgt Bdn bdi cdnh hoiWl!i]l ô H ãgfflKiflK,2014^ nhdp Bong A, Dd tdi cdp Nha nudc KX01.02/06-10, Ha Npi D6 Hoai Nam, V8 Dai Lupc (ding chu bien) (2004), Hudng Idi Cgng ding Kinh ti BdngA, Nxb Thd gidi va Vien Kinh td Chinh tti Thd gidi Luu Ngpc Trinh (chii bien) (2010), Cgng ddng kinh ti Bong A (EAEC) va toan tinh ciia cdc nudc ldn, Nxb Lao ddng Ha Npi Yoshifiimi FUKUNAGA, Ikumo ISONO (2013), "Taking ASEAN+1 FTAs towards the RCEP: A Mapping Study", ERIA Discussion Paper Series, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) 5.»*«-mam #^J, 9lMtm rMue^m^am^ 1999^9.^ ^J , B * S S S « « f » , 2007^ 48 NGHIEN CdiU DdNG BflC A S61(167) 1-2015 ... hi Vi$t Nam Nhgt Bdn bdi cdnh hoiWl!i]l ô H ãgfflKiflK,2014^ nhdp Bong A, Dd tdi cdp Nha nudc KX01.02/06-10, Ha Npi D6 Hoai Nam, V8 Dai Lupc (ding chu bien) (2004), Hudng Idi Cgng ding Kinh ti... , thd nhung thyc tiin lidn kdt kinh td Ddng A Igi dang cho thdy mpt sd xu thd khde bipt Bai vidt ndy khdi quat mpt sd lugn diem chu ydu lien quan ddn lidn kdt kinh td khu vyc vd thuc Ly thuydt... Palgrave Macmillan 2004, p 42 Thuc trang lien ket kinh tl tai Song A 2.1 vi phuang di$n thuc ti - Sif hlnh cda mgng san xudt khu vuc Tai Ddng A, lidn kdt kinh td khu vuc ttdn phucmg didn thyc td (de
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