Báo cáo về tiềm năng thị trường bất động sản Việt Nam- Rediscovering Vietnam’s real estate potential.pdf

Báo cáo về tiềm năng thị trường bất động sản Việt Nam- Rediscovering Vietnam’s real estate potential

REDISCOVERING VIETNAM’S REAL ESTATE POTENTIAL

WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE PROPERTY MARKET SINCE 2003?

•Limited capital markets

•An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC• Conspicuous consumption

• Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum• Consistently rising GDP and FDI

• China + 1, APRC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar screen, coupled with the ML report in Feb and the Euro Money Conference in Mar 2006• Saturation in other South East Asian markets

MAP OF VIETNAM

HO CHI MINH CITY

VIETNAM TODAY

• World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports• No shortage of land, just good sites

• “If you build it, they will come” still exists but may not last much longer

• Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions

• Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and tunnels

HCMC OFFICE MARKET

HCMC Prime Office Stock End of Q1.2007

Office Stock at the beginning of the quarterNew supply during the quarter

HCMC OFFICE MARKET

Prime Office Rental Index

020406080100120140160

MetropolitanSaigon Tower

Sun WahSaigon Center

Diamond Plaza

GemadeptSaigon Trade Center

Me Linh PointPetroVietnam

9 DTHVimedimex

Bao Viet

Golden Tower

HCMC OFFICE MARKETTake up and vacancy rate of

HCMC office buildings

-Q1.04 Q2.04 Q3.04 Q4.04 Q1.05 Q2.05 Q3.05 Q4.05 Q1.06 Q2.06 Q3.06 Q4.06

s qm

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%%

HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates

Rental growth of Grade A2006 - 2007

*Note: Rents excluding S C and VAT

Q1 - 2006 $23.00Q1 - 2007 $29.50

Occupancy 100%

HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates

Rental Growth of Grade B2006 - 2007

* Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT

unit:US$growth rate 26%

Q1 - 2006 $21.00Q1 - 2007 $26.50

Occupancy 99%

HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates

Rental Growth of Grade C2006 - 2007

* Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT

Q1 - 2006 $17.50Q1 - 2007 $20.50

Occupancy 95%

9Factors driving demand: Strong economic growth, FDI growth, WTO access, new multi-national companies, expansion of existing multi-national companies, Vietnam companies upgrading, safety & quality Issues9Grade A office rental rates reflects

upward momentum and growing demand vis-à-vis tight supply

9Vacancy rate remains low, grade A (0%)and B (<1%)

Expected supply

(sqm)Supply of

new grade A, B & C buildingsExpected

year of completion

Opera View - Dist 1Rosaco Tower - Dist 1E-Town 2 - Tan BinhLancasterPetro VN, Dist 1Vimedimex - Dist 1E-Star, Dist 3ITAXA, Dist 3N'Orch - Dist 1Cetpa - Tan BinhManulife - Dist 7

HCMC OFFICE MARKETEXPECTED FUTURE SUPPLY OFFICE SPACE

(2007 - 2010)

Exp ected co mp l eti o n i n2007

Exp ected co mp l eti o n i n2008

Exp ected co mp l eti o n i n2009

Exp ected co mp l eti o n i n2010

(u n it s qm)

Rosaco Tower Petro VN VP Bank Tower Sacom Bank CentecAsiana

PlazaFinancial Tower Vietcombank Tower2007 2008 2009 2010

THE MARKET’S TIMING – LARGER BUILDINGS

Bao Viet 20,000 sqm(owner occupied)VPBank20,000 sqm(12,000 sqm for lease)

Times Square31,000 sqmHCMC Power

Head Office20,000 sqm(10,000 sqm for lease)

Centec25,000 sqm

Asiana Plaza32,000 sqm

Vietcombank77,000 sqm

Financial Tower100,000 sqmM&C Tower35,000 sqm

Gemadept16,500 sqm(10,000 sqm for lease)

A & B

25,000 sqm

2010

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMCNumber of Condos and Projects launched year-by-year

03,0006,0009,00012,000

MAP OF CONDO PROJECTS IN HCMC

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC

Completed Condominium Units year-by-year

05001000150020002500

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC

Ave rage S e l l i ng P ri ce Change of T ypi cal Hi gh-e nd Condo P roj e cts i n Di stri ct 1

Indo c hina P a rk T o we r

US $ 18 0 0Indo c hina P a rk

T o we rUS $ 1,5 0 0

T he La nc a s t e r US $ 3 ,4 5 0

T he La nc a s t e r US $ 2 ,0 5 0

A v a lo n US $ 2 ,8 0 0A v a lo n

US $ 2 ,0 8 9

H o rizo n US $ 1,3 0 0H o rizo n

US 8 5 0

5 0 01,0 0 01,5 0 02 ,0 0 02 ,5 0 03 ,0 0 03 ,5 0 04 ,0 0 0

-2 0 0 32 0 0 42 0 0 5Q 1/ 0 6Q 2 / 0 6Q 3 / 0 6Q 4 / 0 6Q 1/ 0 7

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC

Ave rage S e l l i ng P ri ce Change of T ypi cal Hi gh-e nd Condo P roje cts i n Di stri ct 2 and Bi nh T hanh

R iv e r G a rde n US $ 9 0 0

R iv e r G a rde n US $ 1,4 0 0

S a igo n P e a rl US $ 1,10 0

S a igo n P e a rl US $ 1,5 0 0T he M a no r

US $ 2 ,2 0 0

T he M a no r US $ 1,0 0 0

5 0 01,0 0 01,5 0 02 ,0 0 02 ,5 0 03 ,0 0 03 ,5 0 04 ,0 0 0

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMCRatio between launched and sold units year-by-year

Accumulation ofremaining units

6487989223226 6284 12082 22755 36909Acummulation of sold

units

0721007082,609 6,913 12,810 19,517Average ratio between

sold and available

0%9%11%22%42%57%56%53%1994 19982001 2002 2003 20042005 2006

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC – FUTURE SUPPLY

Projects will be completed in 2007 – 2009

Central Garden-D.1 Hung Vuong Plaza-D.5 Cantavil-D.2 River Garden-D.2 Capitaland Vista-D.2 Ben Thanh Orient Plaza-D.1

New Development year-by-year

01020304050

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC

9New money flow from stock market into property

9Strong investment wave from Asia: Korea, Japan,

Singapore Keen on buying projects already licensed and

under construction instead of leasing land, developing from the beginning.

9Hot market with more money from foreign institutional and individual investors activated by Land Law effective from 1 Jul 06 and Property Trading Law from 1 Jan 07.

9With encouraging Government policies, more developers investing in low income projects.

RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC

infrastructure remain high

as speculators as previously.

come partly thanks to loan flexibility of banks.

brand plays a more and more important role

RESIDENTIAL VILLA HCMC

Phu GIa – PMH town Thao Nguyen SG-D.9 Thu Duc Garden Home-TD Villa Riviera – D.2 An Phu Dong Villa – D.12

Price Trend of Phu Gia, Villa R iviera and Thu Duc Garden H om e (from launch to Q4/06)

US $ 1 , 0 0 0

3 0 %

US $ 2 , 0 0 02 1 0 %

9 0 %7 0 %

5 0 %

US $ 1 , 5 0 0

US $ 2 , 4 0 03 3 %2 0 %

US $ 6 8 0 U$ S 7 0 03 %

Phu Gia - PMH town

(launched in 2001) Villa Riviera - D.2(launched in 2004) Thu Duc Garden Home (launched in 2005)

HCMC RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE MARKET OVERVIEW

Ho Chi Minh City Serviced Apartments

9Difficult Termination9Higher Rental Cost9Generic Appearance9Less Usable Area

Current Serviced Apartments

Diamond Plaz

Sheraton (Oc

ean Place)Norfo

lk Mansion

Sedona Sui

Somerset C

Court

Somerset H

markLTT Co

urtHBT C

ourtCity V

SupplyAverage Rent ($US/sqm/mth)

District 1 & 3

projects There are 7 grade A serviced apartment projects provide over 500 units from 1 to 4 bedrooms

with most marketable size of 1 & 2 bedrooms, from 50 – 80 sqm

20%, from US$22 to US$31 per sqm per month in January 2006 to US$25 to US$35 in December 2006

expected to keep rising during 2007.

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC

An Phu, An Khanh, District 2

ƒStill an attractive area for tenants with family

ƒLimited good quality villas and serviced apartments

ƒFew new developing projects in apartments and gated compound (River View and River Garden)

ƒAverage rent of US$2,500 to 3,500 per month With a 15% - 20% increase in rental prices within the past year

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC – IN DISTRICT 2

Nguyen U Di

Thao DienVilla

Thao Dien Compound

Le Van Mien

Nguyen Van Huong

Rent/SQMAsking

Location

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC - 2007 NEW SUPPLY

Total sqm

10 – 1211 - 2030 - 3821 - 32Target Rent

$/sqm/mth typesUnit No of

4-5 bdrs11

January 2007Saigon Queen Villa

Nguyen Van Huong, An Phu,

District 2,

1-4 bdrs100

February 2007Green Hills

Lot 25, Quang Trung Software Park, District 12, 40

minutes to CBD

1-3 bdrs40 - 50

February/ March 2007

The LancasterLe Thanh Ton Street, District 1,

2-4 bdrs228

February/March 2007

Pasteur CourtPasteur Street, District 3, 5 minutes

to CBD

An Phu Small SA

The Manor 2

Kumho Asiana PlazaTimes Square

Saigon Riverview ApartmentsSaigon Pearl

RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC - FUTURE PROJECTS

VN STOCK MARKET

VN Index from 18 July 2000 to 27 February 2007

VN STOCK MARKET

VN index

28/7/2000:2 listed companies - VN Index: 100 – Daily turnover Avg $45m

27/2/2007:107 listed companies & 2 funds- VN Index: 1167.36 - Market capitalisation:$15b

VN Index: increased by 9.5 times

2000 2007

Market cap: increased by 300 times

100 RICHEST PEOPLE IN VIETNAM

(Till 3rd Jan 2007)

Deputy DirectorChu Thị Bình - Deputy Director

Minh Phú FisheriesLê Văn Quang - Chairman &

General

FPT- Technology Investment and Development Co.Bùi Quang Ngọc - Vice Chairman &

Deputy Director3

FPT- Technology Investment and Development Co.Lê Quang Tiến – Vice Chairman &

Deputy Director2

147,125,000 FPT

FPT- Technology Investment and Development Co Trương Gia Bình – Chairman &

General Director1

Value (US$)Code

Listed companiesName

Rank

HCMC RETAIL MARKET

2004 RANK2005 RANK

2006 RANKCOUNTRY

Top 10 Countries for Retail Investment

HCMC RETAIL MARKET

HCMC Shopping Centre Existing Supply

Saigon CentreDist 1Saigon Superbowl

Tan BinhDiamond Plaza

Dist 1Lucky Plaza

Dist 1Zen Plaza

Dist 1Thuan Kieu Plaza

Dist 5Parkson

Dist 1Tax Plaza

Dist 1An Dong Plaza

Dist 5Saigon Square

Eden MallDist 1

HCMC RETAIL MARKET

AVERAGE OCCUPANCY & RENTAL RATESOF HCMC CBD RETAIL CENTRES

CBD prime occupancy rate100%100%100%100%98%95%95%95%94%100%100%CBD prime average rents$32.40$32.40$32.40$35.33$36.67$39.95$43.03$45.11$49.21$59.68$80.0019961997199819992000200120022003200420052006

HCMC RETAIL MARKET

unit: US$/sqm/month

COMP AR IS ON OF R E T AIL R E NT S IN CIT IE S IN S OUT H E AS T AS IA

Hong Kong BangkokSingaporeTaipeiShanghaiBeijingJakartaHo Chi Minh CityNew DelhiManila

(Source: CBR E)

HCMC RETAIL MARKET

Source: CB Richard Ellis

Growth in prime retail rates in HCMCfrom 2006 to 2007

*Note: Rents excluding S C and VAT

unit: US$/sqm/month

growth rate 21%

Eden Mall

106 Nguyen Hue St, Dist.1

Size: 5,000 sqm

Launch December 2006Rents: $30 - $70 per sqmOccupancy 90%

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – NEW RETAIL CENTRES

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – NEW RETAIL CENTRESSAIGON SQUARE

3 Le Van Huu, Dist 1

Launch January 2007Size: 5,000 sqm

Rents: 66 - $100 per sqmOccupancy 100%

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY

Opera ViewDist 1Tan Da Court

Dist 5Saigon Paragon

Dist 7Hung Vuong Plaza

Dist 5Sailing Tower

Dist 1Times Square

Dist 1Happiness Square

Dist 5Kumho Asiana

Dist 1SJC Tower

Dist 1Saigon Pearl

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLYCOMING NEXT IN EARLY 2007

OPERA VIEW – 161 – 167 Dong Khoi, Dist 1

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY

COMING IN 2008SAIGON PARAGON

Nguyen Luong Bang, Dist.7Retail area: 7,984 sqm

Entertainment area: 7,016 sqm

HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY

HUNG VUONG PLAZA

Location: 126 Hung Vuong St Dist 5.Developer : M&C and Kinh Do

Mixed use development with 6 levels of retail inc cinema and 2 basement parking.

Leasable Area : 17,000sqmOpening : Q1/2008

Major tenants: Parkson and Megastar

Hotel Market HCMC

416,785

1,903 3 - star

1,447 4 - star

344 10

3,435 5 – star

ROOMSPER HOTELHOTELS

ROOMSHOTEL

HOTELS FROM FIVE TO THREE STARS, 2006

(Source: CBRE)No of

No of Rooms

17.50%25.00%

Hotel Market HCMC

5 star 108.00 128.204 star 80.00 94.963 star 45.00 53.42

2005 2006(Est.)

AVERAGE ROOM RATE (US$), 2005-2006

Average % Increase from 2005

5 Star - 15.76%4 Star - 15.75%3 Star - 15.79%

D1 5 Star Hotel Rates on average range from: $77 -$165 per night

Hotel Market HCMC

5 star4 star3 star

5 Star 3.08% 4 Star - 4.07% -3 Star - 0.83 +

-D1 5 Star Hotels are showing an average 8% growth increase overall

Hotel Market HCMC

VN - Domestic12.00% 4.46% 11.11% 3.85%7.41% 11.03% 8.70%5.71%VN - International20.11% 8.91% 12.76% -7.56% 20.51% 18.44% 3.81% 22.22%HCMC - Domestic-0.12% 73.35% 6.91% 22.00% 30.39% 20.00% 26.67% 18.42%HCMC - International 72.55% 12.99% 16.85% -9.14% 21.35% 26.58% 17.50% 12.77%20002001200220032004200520062007P

International Tourist

arrivals up 350,000 from 2005Growth

down from 2006 by 9.08 %

Hotel Market HCMC

-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,0002007F

Existing SupplyNew Supply

Times Square, Saigon

Asiana Plaza and

International Trade Centre (Tax Plaza)

Grand, Majestic, Continental, Majestic Upgrade In PMH District 7 of Saigon Tourist

Rex Upgrade 2007F

EXISTING AND FUTURE SUPPLY OF 4 AND 5-STAR ROOMS

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

- Increasing demand on Grade A & B office space - Low vacancy rate remains on Grade A &B office space

Take-up and Vacancy of Grade A&B Office Properties

-5,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

Q3-Q4/2006: Sharp increase in Grade A & Grade B office rentals

- Grade A Office: 9.5% and 7.5% increase q-o-q, respectively in Q3 and Q4- Grade B Office: 10.7% and 7.9% increase q-o-q, respectively in Q3 and Q4

Average Rental of Hanoi Grade A Office Properties

20.0022.0024.0026.0028.0030.0032.00

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

Estimated new stock of Hanoi Grade A Office

2007200820092010S qm

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

OPERA BUSINESS CENTRE

Opening date

HANOI OFFICE MARKET

Condos: 22,000sqm (185 units)Completion Date & Opening Date:Q1/2007

PACIFIC PLACE

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

- 61 units of Somerset Westlake Hanoi has been closed for renovation for Q2-Q4/2006

- 39 units of Elegant Suites come on stream in Q3/2006

Hanoi Cumulative Stock of Grade A&B Serviced Apartments

02004006008001,0001,2001,400

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

- Low vacancy rate- High demand

- Rental rate: US$18 - US$45/sqm/month

Average Asking Rent per sqm per month (US$)

$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00$40.00$50.00$60.00

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

Future Supply

- Strong growth- Increasing demand- Limited supply

- Vacancy rate still remains low- Rental will increase slightly

- Increasing number of expatriates in Hanoi

200720082010Uni ts

DMC Tan LongSkyline

Somerset Hoa BinhSyrena

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

Serviced Apartment Building

15 storey building with 2 basements for parkingCompletion Date & Opening Date:

Q1/2007Leasable Area:NLA: 5,000sqm52 Apartments

ATLANTA

HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

Serviced Apartment Building

23 storey building with 1 basementCompletion Date & Opening Date:Q1/2007

Leasable Area:NLA: 8,714sqm88 Apartments

Opening date

SKYLINE

HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

Y-o-Y Visitor Arrivals to Vietnam

- Low fair airlines: AsiaAir, Jetstar & Tiger AirlinesNu mber of Foreign Visitor A rrivals to Vietnam

Number of foreign tourist arrivalsy-o-y change

HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

Tourist Profile

Inte rnati onal Visi tor Arri vals to Vi e tnam

Inte rnati onal Vi si tor Arri val s by P urpose s

02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200

HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

Room Supply: 4,924 (5, 4 and 3 star hotels)

Number of Hotels

Number of Hotels' rooms

- 1.15 million int’l visitor arrivals to Hanoi in 2006

- 4,924 rooms, including 5, 4 and 3 star hotel rooms

- 5 star hotels: 2,364 rooms/ 8 hotels

NUMBER OF FOREIGN VISITOR A RRIVA LS

0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,000

HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

Room Supply: 3,238 rooms (5 and 4 star)

- Most of 5 and 4 star hotels came on stream in 1990s

- No new supply over last few

- Lack of quality hotel rooms

Cumulative Stock & New Supply of 5 & 4 star Hotel rooms

05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500

HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET

ADR & Occupancy rate of 5 star hotels

- Stably high occupancy rate over years- Occupancy rate as at end Q4/2006: •5 star hotels: approx 84.28%

•4 star hotels: approx 90.00%•3 star hotels: approx 80%- High demand

Q2/2005 Q3/2005 Q4/2005 Q1/2006 Q2/2006 Q3/2006 Q4/200650.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%

Ave Room rateAve Occupancy rate

Monthly Occupancy Rate of Hanoi's 5-star Hotels

Jun-Jul-06 06

Nov-06