Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt

Egypt possesses excellent potential for renewable energy (RE) including solar, wind and biomass energy. Renewable energy technologies (RETs) and systems have different needs for support in terms of research and development, demonstration and market development. For this purpose, the Energy Research Center (ERC) at Cairo University has carried out a study with the ultimate goal of formulating a national development strategy and action plan for the local manufacture of renewable energy systems (RESs) and components. The present study positions the different RETs and RESs and identifies the research and development needs for each technology. The study also suggests how to establish a competitive market for RET. For this purpose it builds and analyses a set of likely scenarios, and proposes a practical development strategy and a detailed action plan for achieving it.

Journal of Advanced Research (2010) 1, 29–38 University of Cairo Journal of Advanced Research REVIEW ARTICLE Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt A Khalil *, A Mubarak, S Kaseb Mechanical Power Engineering Department, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt KEYWORDS Renewable; Energy; Egypt; Plan; Manufacturing Abstract Egypt possesses excellent potential for renewable energy (RE) including solar, wind and biomass energy Renewable energy technologies (RETs) and systems have different needs for support in terms of research and development, demonstration and market development For this purpose, the Energy Research Center (ERC) at Cairo University has carried out a study with the ultimate goal of formulating a national development strategy and action plan for the local manufacture of renewable energy systems (RESs) and components The present study positions the different RETs and RESs and identifies the research and development needs for each technology The study also suggests how to establish a competitive market for RET For this purpose it builds and analyses a set of likely scenarios, and proposes a practical development strategy and a detailed action plan for achieving it ª 2009 University of Cairo All rights reserved Study objectives Abbreviations: CSP, concentrated solar power; ERC, Energy Research Center; MENA, middle east and north Africa; MOEE, Ministry of Electricity and Energy; MTOE, million ton oil equivalent; PV, photovoltaic; RE, renewable energy; RET(s), renewable energy technology(ies); RES(s), renewable energy system(s); R&D, research and development; SWH(s), solar water heater(s); WE, wind energy * Corresponding author Tel.: +20 123555523; fax: +20 235723486 E-mail address: adelkhk@yahoo.com (A Khalil) 2090-1232 ª 2009 University of Cairo All rights reserved Peer review under responsibility of University of Cairo Production and hosting by Elsevier doi:10.1016/j.jare.2010.02.003 The government of Egypt seeks to enhance technological excellence, attract foreign direct investment and become a leader in the export of medium-technology engineering products in the MENA region In this context, RE is a priority area for short and long-term industrial promotion Moreover, energy-related environmental problems and likely post-Kyoto emission reduction quotas are becoming increasingly prominent on the policy agenda Therefore, the specific objectives of the present study include: To review global industrial and innovation policies in the RE sector and the performance of Egyptian industry and innovation policy as it applies to RETs The review includes consideration of the potential for a choice of specific tech- 30 A Khalil et al nologies or applications, positioning Egyptian designs [1], manufacturers and capabilities in relation to other players in regional and international markets [2–5] To construct a set of future scenarios for the penetration of RE in the energy system through stakeholder consultation and to carry out an in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis taking into account key variables such as developments in energy pricing and technology advances To formulate a clear development strategy and action plan to enhance the competitiveness of the industry, with detailed focus on a limited number of technology choices This strategy is developed in close collaboration with the national stakeholders, including representatives of key institutions and private companies It also identifies the research and development needs for each RET and addresses the potential and costs for the promotion of the industrial sector involved in RE ate potential with wind speeds in the range of 5–7 m/s [6,7] The solar atlas indicates that Egypt, as one of the sun-belt countries, is endowed with high intensity direct solar radiation of 2000–3200 kWh/m2/year from north to south, as shown in Fig Sunshine duration throughout the year ranges from to 11 h with few cloudy days Solar energy demonstrates high potential for power generation, amounting to an economic potential of about 74,000 TWh/year (economically proven potential) [8,9] The total amount of biomass resource, including plantation and non-plantation biomass, fuel crops (energy plantations) and municipal waste, is in the order of 60 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) per year with gross energy content of about 855 · 1015 J, which is equivalent to about 20 MTOE/ year On a conservative estimate, about 20% of the resource could be used, equivalent to about MTOE/year [1] Renewable energy potential Current status of renewable energy industry The area west of the Gulf of Suez from south of Soukhna to Hurghada, especially the Gulf of Elzait, has an excellent wind regime, exceeding 10 m/s (at a height of 25 m), for most of the area, as shown in the wind atlas map in Fig This area is considered to be one of the uninhabited desert regions with most potential and could perhaps host up to 20,000 MW installed wind farm capacity Other areas, such as Owaynat, Sinai and the north coast, exhibit moder- Local manufacturing of renewable energy technologies’ components Figure From the local manufacturing point of view, the stages of local manufacturing for RET components can be divided into three categories (A, B and C) as shown in Table It should be mentioned that innovation and R&D is a continuous process even for category A In this category, innovation and R&D will help Wind regime map for Egypt (wind atlas for Egypt) Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt Figure 31 Solar radiation intensity map for Egypt (solar atlas for Egypt) local manufacturers in reducing production costs and improving quality Local manufacturers for each RET system and component are evaluated and summarized in Table in accordance with the companies’ survey [1] Renewable energy technologies positioning Each RET is positioned in relation to each other in line with the strategic goals and objectives including long-term market vision Potential market attractiveness factors include: average annual growth rate and size, value added for industry, competition strength, technology requirements, technology maturity and expected future environmental impacts, technology provisions, implementation satisfaction The five selected RETs are positioned for Egypt based on the above factors in Fig showing that wind energy (WE) technology is leading all other technologies in power generation [1] followed by solar water heating (SWH) Concentrating solar power (CSP) technology is in last position Photovoltaic technology (PV) is located in the medium range of positioning, considered a harvesting domain, followed by biomass technology Scenario analysis for renewable energy sector in Egypt Three scenarios are proposed for RE implementation in Eygpt’s electric power system which has the largest market share and the most support facilities available The first scenario follows the existing plans of the Ministry of Electricity and Energy (MOEE) [10] and is considered as the low scenario (business as usual); the second is the medium scenario and the third is the high scenario The high scenario includes a proportion of the proven technical potential of RESs in Egypt where there are ample renewable sources It should be noted that the three scenarios are based on a constant requirement for energy produced and on different installed capacities The difference in installed power capacities comes from the difference between the installed and demonstrated power via RES power generation Figs and show installed capacities and energy generation for recommended RETs in the high scenario [1] As an example, three scenarios are proposed for the replacement of conventional water heaters with SWHs The first or soft scenario [1] assumes a 2% annual replacement of electric water heaters The second and third scenarios consider annual replacements of 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively The estimated reduction in electrical energy consumption due to such scenarios is presented in Fig and shows expected electrical energy savings of 4.9 billion kWh by the year 2015 for the high scenario [1] Proposed development strategy and action plan The RE strategy is formulated based on the following goals [1]:  By year 2022 that 16% of energy demand be supplied from RET excluding large hydropower systems; and the installment of 1.8 million m2 of SWH systems  By year 2050 50% of electricity production comes from RE These goals together, with a coherent proactive RE policy, will lead to the achievement of the objectives of increasing the penetration of RE in the national energy market and of developing an internationally competitive Egyptian industry Strategic targets The proposed strategy focuses on and addresses the following issues: 32 Table A Khalil et al Evaluation of current local manufacturing capabilities for different components of renewable energy technologies [1] Category Description A Local manufacturing; RET components can be produced directly with current resources of Egyptian Industry After innovation and R&D; RET components can be produced with current resources but with the help of innovation and R&D; needs about years Import/joint venture with foreign companies; RET components can be produced by Egyptian industry only when a joint venture with big international companies takes place (transfer of knowhow takes about years) B C Component Manufacturing of solar water heaters’ components Glass Absorber plates Selective coating Tanks Pumps/control Insulation Electric heaters and controls Auxiliaries Manufacturing of CSP – parabolic troughs Reflector material and glass Vacuum and absorber tube Rotary joints Step motor Steel structure Sun tracking system Control system Piping Auxiliaries Trough cleaning system Operation and maintenance Manufacturing of wind energy systems’ components Tower Blade Yawing system Gear-box Generator Control systems Cables Transformers Auxiliaries Operation and maintenance Manufacturing of CSP – Fresnel collectors Flat mirrors and surface quality Step motor Steel structure Sun tracking system Control system Piping Auxiliaries Cleaning system Operation and maintenance Manufacturing of biomass units’ components Fermentation tanks, mild steel, for medium size plants Storage tanks Gas valves, PVC gas tubes Gas engines, diesel/gas engines Gas meters, rubber gas tubes, gas regulators, etc A B C X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt 33 Medium Low High 5.00 H Market Attractivene 4.00 3.00 2.00 M 1.00 L 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 Technology Positioning Wind Figure CSP PV Biomass SWH Positioning of renewable energy technologies in Egypt [1] Installed Capacity (MW) High Scenario 60,000 PV Hydropower (HYP) CSP Technology 50,000 Wind Technology (WT) Thermal Power Plants (TPP) 40,000 30,000 20,000 Installed Power 2005 2010 84.4% 82.6% 0.8% 6.5% 0.0% 0.6% 14.8% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 7.1% TPP WT CSP HYP PV Renewables wo HYP 10,000 Sharing 2015 75.1% 13.7% 2.0% 9.2% 0.0% 15.7% 2020 70.7% 17.8% 3.9% 6.9% 0.7% 22.3% - 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year Figure Electrical installed power needs and recommended RETs-high scenario For the high RET scenario proposed for the year 2022:  Installation of 10,335 MW of WE (370 MW currently installed)  Installation of 2550 MW of CSP (140 MW plant currently being erected with 20% solar component) [6]  Installation of 500 MW PV arrays (6 MW already installed)  Installation of 1.8 million m2 of SWHs (0.5 million m2 installed)  Saving of MTOE by utilizing biomass  Acquiring 0.5% share of the European union RET market by 2012 which represents US$ 0.625 billion worth of manufactured components of RE systems These estimates are based on the high RET scenario given in the scenario analysis section of this study and the EU RET market of Euro 100 billion [4] In order to achieve these goals a proactive policy to promote RET should be adopted Action plan The introduction of RETs into the market requires certain prerequisites in order to become attractive to investors These include: an acceptable mature technology, a reasonably acceptable profit and an acceptable financial risk This will require co-ordination between industry, finance, insurance and politics Accordingly, RET strategy should include the following five basic components (shown in Fig 7): 34 A Khalil et al Generated Energy (GWh) High Scenario 300,000 PV Hydropower (HYP) CSP Technology 250,000 Wind Technology (WT) Thermal Power Plants (TPP) 200,000 150,000 100,000 2005 87.0% 0.5% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.5% TPP WT CSP HYP PV Renewables wo HYP 50,000 Energy Sharing 2010 2015 86.0% 80.3% 4.6% 10.1% 0.3% 1.2% 9.1% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 11.3% 2020 77.5% 13.4% 2.4% 6.5% 0.3% 16.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year Figure Figure Energy generation needs and recommended RETs – high scenario Projected electric water heaters energy consumption and anticipated reduction due to SWH scenarios Component (1): Tailored financial instrument to support RET Component (2): Tailored R&D program to enhance capacity and competitiveness of industry in order to produce RE components for export to foreign manufacturers of RE systems as well as for the local market Component (3): Tailored legislation including a new feed-in law and feed-in tariff allowing the RE producer to pump the produced RE energy to the national electric grid [11] Component (4): Market enhancement and infrastructure development Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt Figure Basic components of RE strategy for manufacturing RE equipment Table Potential share of local manufacturers of RE equipment [1] Technology Wind energy Solar water heaters Photovoltaic systems Biomass Concentrated solar power 35 % Share of local manufacturers establishment, development and monitoring of an appropriate RE stategy Manufacturing activities as part of an institutional effort Reactive policy (%) Proactive policy (%) 40 70 20 50 30 60 95 30 95 50 Component (5): Information dissemination, awareness and capacity building program The proposed action plan focuses on the removal of technical, economic, financial, institutional, legislative and awareness barriers and should lead to the implementation of these five components and eventually the achievement of the planned targets It should be emphasized here that the success of the action plan will depend on a proactive approach by the government to encourage and create the demand side conditions for increased penetration of RET Potential share for local manufacturers Increasing penetration of RESs within the energy sector in Egypt is essential For that reason, different stakeholders must join together to develop RETs The anticipated local market share for manufacturing different RETs is presented in Table The estimated share is totally dependent on the Table shows that the local share of RE equipment manufacture could range from 30% to 95% depending on the technology However, local RE companies must be established with coordination between them to integrate the different components into a specific system Local RE companies will need foreign technical support for the erection of WE and CSP plants as well as for their operation and maintenance After a transition period of years local RE companies should be able to rely on their developed resources Tables and show the investment required and the time schedule for the respective action plans The calculations are based on the very conservative assumptions that the average share of local manufacturing is 45% and that the minimum rate of return is 20% of the investment The action plans for research and development focus on the development of local component designs, new materials for components and coatings, system performance/optimization, online resource assessment and grid integration, in order to target efficient and market-competitive RE systems Implementation of the proposed plan will in the high scenario result in savings in fossil fuel resources of up to 78 MTOE and a corresponding reduction in CO2 emissions of 209 million tons by the year 2022 as illustrated in Table Renewable energy fund The implementation of RETs will reduce fossil fuel consumption, reduce harmful emissions and generate hard currency 36 Table A Khalil et al Investment required for local manufacturing and R&D for power generation for different RETs (US$ million) [1] Scenario WT 2006–2010 2011–2015 2016–2022 Total High Market volume Share of local manufacturing Investment in manufacturing assets R&D investment 2032 45% 799 24 3857 55% 1516 45 5208 65% 2047 61 11,096 Market volume Share of local manufacturing Investment in manufacturing assets R&D investment 1547 45% 608 18 2233 65% 878 26 4061 75% 1596 48 Market volume Share of local manufacturing Investment in manufacturing assets R&D investment 891 45% 350 11 1119 65% 440 13 1389 75% 546 16 Market volume Share of local manufacturing Investment in manufacturing assets R&D investment 636 45% 283 10 2419 55% 1077 38 6611 65% 2944 103 Market volume Share of local manufacturing Investment in manufacturing assets R&D investment 636 45% 283 10 1209 55% 539 19 4324 65% 1925 67 Market volume Share of local manufacturing Investment in manufacturing assets R&D investment 636 45% 283 10 – 55% – – 2314 65% 1030 36 Market volume Share of local manufacturing Investment in manufacturing assets R&D investment – 30% – – 35% – 10 2166 45% 1277 51 Market volume Share of local manufacturing Investment in manufacturing assets R&D investment – 30% – – 35% – 1295 45% 764 31 116 35% 80 116 35% 20 232 95% 80 Medium Low 4362 131 7840 3082 92 3399 1336 40 CSP High Medium Low 9666 4304 151 6169 2747 96 2949 1313 46 PV High Medium 2166 1277 69 1295 764 41 SWH High Market volume Share of local manufacturing Investment in manufacturing assets R&D investment through the opportunity of exporting the saved fossil fuels The anticipated cost savings from the export opportunity are calculated on the basis of US$ 6.5 million Btu of fuel saved A special renewable energy fund that includes the subsidy saved as a result of energy generation by RETs should be initiated This fund can be used to cover the gap between the RE feed-in tariff and the average price of electricity generated by thermal power plants Moreover, the RE fund could finance R&D for local manufacturing activities in RETs’ systems and components design In addition to this fund, the cost savings resulting from electricity generation by hydropower plants as compared to thermal power plants, could also finance the 464 180 deficit arising from the feed-in tariff and research and development for RETs Conclusions The study carried out by ERC has revealed that the five most prominent types of RET in Egypt (large- and small-scale solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind and biomass energy) have different needs for support in terms of R&D, demonstration and market development The present study reviews the current available RE resources, positions different RETs, Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt Table 37 Action plan for RETs implementation [1] Table Expected savings in fossil fuel resources and emission reduction due to the implementation of the action plan for local manufacturing of RET systems and components [1] Technology of power generation Anticipated savings Anticipated cost savings (million US$) Anticipated avoided subsidy (million US$) Generated energy via RET (million kWh) TOE (million) CO2 (million tons) Opportunity cost for export Certified emission reduction Business as usual Fuel prices liberation to close the gap High scenario Wind CSP PV 67 10 179 27 17,299 2656 258 1789 275 27 13,311 2043 199 5292 751 62 293,608 45,070 4380 Total 78 209 20,213 2090 15,553 6105 343,059 Medium scenario Wind 46 CSP PV 0.6 122 17 1.5 11,830 1680 142 1223 174 15 9103 1293 109 3648 485 34 200,776 28,514 2,409 Total 53 141 13,652 1412 10,505 4167 231,699 Low scenario Wind CSP PV 22 – 59 10 – 5728 975 – 592 101 – 4408 751 – 1840 283 – 97,222 16,556 – Total 26 69 6704 693 5158 2123 113,778 and identifies barriers and evaluates current and future needs for local manufacturing of RESs The study also addresses the issue of how to support the setup of competitive market strategies for RETs For this purpose it builds and analyses a set of likely scenarios, and proposes a practical development strategy and a detailed action plan for achieving it Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the following for support, analysis and data: Renewable Energy Authority, Ministry of Electricity and Energy, Federation of Egyptian Industries – Dr Hani Nokraschy, Mr Wolfgang Mostert, Dr Khaled Elfarra, Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, General Organization For Industrialization References [1] Khalil A Renewable energy sector in Egypt Energy research center report Cairo University; 2007 [2] Renewables 2007 Global status report REN21 network by the Worldwatch Institute, 2007 38 [3] Renewable energy – market and policy trends in IEA countries International energy agency report, 2004 [4] World energy investment outlook International energy agency report (IEA), 2006 [5] REEEP project report Renewable energy and energy efficiency partnership (REEEP) programs, Vienna, May 2006 [6] New and renewable energy authority in Egypt (NREA) Internal annual report of year 2007–2008, NREA, 2008 URL: [7] ‘‘Baseline survey for the energy sector in Egypt’’ DANIDA report, by ICEMEC consultancy, 1999 [8] Trieb F ‘‘Concentrating solar power for the mediterranean region, MED CSP’’ by German aerospace center (DLR), BMU, Germany, 2005 A Khalil et al [9] Trieb F ‘‘TRANS mediterranean interconnection for concentrating solar power’’, by German aerospace center (DLR), BMU, Germany, 2006 [10] Egyptian electricity holding company (EEHC) Internal annual report of year 2007–2008 Ministry of electricity and energy, EEHC, 2008 URL: [11] Elsobki M Regulatory policies towards renewable energies in Egypt In: Proceedings of the second international conference on scientific research Cairo: Cairo University; 2005  ... continuous process even for category A In this category, innovation and R&D will help Wind regime map for Egypt (wind atlas for Egypt) Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt. .. (4): Market enhancement and infrastructure development Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt Figure Basic components of RE strategy for manufacturing RE equipment Table... different RETs, Road map for renewable energy research and development in Egypt Table 37 Action plan for RETs implementation [1] Table Expected savings in fossil fuel resources and emission reduction