, J '1 BO GIAO Dl)CVA f>AOT~O TRUONG f>~I HQC KINH TE TP.HCM NGUYEN PHI HUNG xAY Dl/NG cAu TRUC VON MVC TIRU NHAM TOI THIEU HOA CHI PHi SU DVNG VON BiNH QUAN CHO CONG TY CO PHAN xAY D\J'NG VA KINH DOANH DJA OC HOA BiNH LU~N VAN T~C Si KINH TE TP H6 Chi Minh - Nam 2014 I I B(> GIAO Dl)C VA DAO T ~O TRUONG D~I HQC KINH TE TP.HCM NGUYEN PHI HUNG xAY Dl/NG cAu TRUC VON Ml}C TIEU NHAM TOI THIEU HOA CHI PHi SU Dl}NG VON BiNH QUAN CHO CONG TY CO PHAN xAY Dl/NG VA KINH DOANH DJA OC HOA BiNH Chuyen nganh : Quan tri kinh doanh Ma s6: 60340102 LU~N VAN T~C Si KINH TE NGUOI HUONG DAN KHOA HQC: PGS TS NGUYEN QUANG THU TP H6 Chi Minh - Nam 2014 ~_l LOI CAM DOAN Toi xin cam doan dng day la cong trinh nghien cfru cua toi v6i sv h6 trq tir nguai hu6ng dftn khoa h9c la PGS.TS Nguy€n Quang Thu Cac n anh huemg d€n c.iu true vf>n ffi\le tieu 12 2.1.2 2.2 Chi phi sit dl:lng v6n binh quan 14 2.1.2.1 Chi phi su d\lng nq (Ro) 15 2.1.2.2 Chi phi su d\lng v6n c6 phftn uu dai (RP ) 16 1.2 Chi phi su d\lng v6n c6 phftn thuimg (RE) 17 2.1.2.4 Cae nhan t6 anh hu6ng d€n WACC 20 M('>t s6 ly thuy€t lien quan 22 2.2.1 Don bdy hvc;zt a(Jng kinh doanh (DOL) 22 2.2.2 Mo hinh aidm s6 Z - Score 24 2.3 M(>t s6 nghien cliu lien quan 25 Tom tit ehucmg 28 CHUONG 3: THlfC T~NG cAu TRUC VON T~I CTCP xA y Dl/NG v A KINH DOANH DJA 6c HOA BiNH 29 C.iu true chucmg , 29 3.1 T6ng quan v~ CTCP xay d\f!lg va kinh doanh dia 6e Hoa Binh 30 3.1.1 Qua trinh hinh va phat tridn 30 3.1.2 Cacdu t6 chuc 32 3.1.3 Chiin liwc phat tridn 33 3.1.4 Cacciu c6 aong 35 3.2 C.iu true v6n cua CTCP Xay d\l'!lg va Kinh doanh Dia 6e Hoa Binh 35 , 3.2.1 , Cau true van va nhfmg rui ro hi?n tc;zi cua HBC 35 3.2.1 Tyl~ nq 3.2.1.2 C.iu true nq eua HBC-Lqi ieh va rui ro .40 3.2.2 eua HBC lien tve tang eao 37 Phan tich tinh hi¢u qua cciu true v6n hi?n tc;zi cua HBC 55 ' ' ' 3.2.2.1 Xae d!nh eae bien so dau vao eua mo hinh 57 2.2.2 Mo ph6ng bi~n d()ng eua WACC eae bi~n s6 dftu vao thay d6i 64 Tom tit ehuang 67 CHUONG 4: xA y DljNG cAu TRUC VON Ml}C TIEU NHAM TOI THIEU HOA CHI PHI SU Dl)NG VON BiNH QUAN CHO CTCP xA Y DljNG VA KINH DOANH DJA OCHOA BiNH NAM 2014 68 C~u true ehuang 69 Xay dvng eae bi~n s6 dftu vao 69 4.1.1 Xay dl!ng chi phi SU d¥ng v6n chit sa hfiu (RE) 69 4.1 Xay dl!ng chi phi su d¥ng nq· (RD) 70 4.2 Mo phong bi~n d()ng eua WACC eae bi~n «.fJ dftu vao thay d6i 72 4.3 Xay dvng du true v6n mµe tieu eho HBC nam 2014 73 Tom tit ehuang 75 CHUONG 5: GIA.I PIIAP VA KET LU~N 76 ' - ? TAI LI~U THAM KHAO i D anh mµe ta1 , · rlyU A tleng ·A v·1yt A 1· D anh ml,le ta1 , · rlyU A rA1eng Anh 111 ··· Danh mµe website v PHl) Ll)C vi DANH MQC cAc KY H1¥u, cAc CHU VIET TAT 9T2013 thang dau nam 2013 ABB Ngan hang thuang m'.li c6 phfrn An Binh ACB Ngan hang thuang m'.li c8 ph&n AChau BIDV Ngan hang Dfru tu va Phat tri€n Vi~t Nam CAPM Capital asset pricing model - Mo hinh dinh gia tai san vbn CUTS c6 dong thi€u sb CN Chi nhanh CNHCM Chi nhanh Hb Chi Minh CNQ.1 Chi nhanh qu~n CTCP Cong ty c6 phfrn CTG Ngan hang thuang m'.li c6 phfrn Cong thuang Vi~t Nam DIA H~ sb t6ng nq tren t6ng tai san DOL Degree of Operating Leverage - Don bfty ho'.lt d(mg kinh doanh E/A H~ sb vbn chu s6 hfru tren t6ng tai san EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes - Lqi nhu~n ho~:t d()ng (tru&c lai vay va thu~) EPS Earnings per share - Lqi nhu~n tren m()t c6 phfrn HBC Hoa Binh Corporation - CTCP xay d\fllg va kinh doanh dja be Hoa Binh HOSE Ho Chi Minh stock exchange - Sa giao djch chfrng khoan phb Hb Chi Minh Q2.2013 Quy nam 2013 Q3.2013 Quy nam 2013 ROA Return on total assets - ROD Return on debt - Hi~u qua su d\lng nq vay ROE Return on common equity - Ty sufrt sinh lqi tren vbn chu s6 hfr Ty suiit sinh lqi tren t6ng tai san STB Ngan hang thuong mi;li cb phftn Sai Gem thuong tin TNCN Thu nh~p ca nhan TNDN Thu TP.HCM Thanh ph6 H6 Chi Minh TPCP Trai phi€u chinh phu TSCD Tai san c6 d!nh TSNH Tai san ng~n hi;tn TSSL Ty suit sinh lqi TTCK Thi truang chfrng khoan TTCKVN Thi truang chl'.rng khoan Vi~t Nam TTM Trailing Twelve Months - G9p 12 thang gftn nhit TTS Tbng tai san VCB Ngan hang thuong mi;li cb phftn Ngoi;li thuong Vi~t Nam vcsc Viet Capital securities company - CTCP chfrng khoan Ban Vi~t VCSH V 6n chu s& hfru VN Vi~tNam WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital - Chi phi su dl,lng v6n binh quan c6 nh~p trc;mg s6 cong ty DANH MVC BANG BIEU, HINH vE, DO Tffl VA PHUONG TRiNH Danh m9c bang bi~u Ten bang Trang Bang 2.1 Ciu true v&n cua cong ty c8 ph~n Bang Ty l~ gifra gia tri xay dl!Ilg va v6n chu sa hfru cua HBC 38 Bang Khoan phai thu cua HBC ca c~u tai san 39 Bang 3 C~u true nq cua HBC giao do~n 2005 - 9T2013 40 Bang Tinh hinh chi tra lai vay cua HBC 42 Bang TSCD cua HBC va xu hu6ng di ch chuy~n ca c~u tai san 43 sang TSNH Vi~t Bang 3.6 Danh gia rui ro nganh xay dµng Nam Bang Ty l~ t6n kho/TSNH cua HBC giai do~n 2005 - 9T2013 48 Bang 3.8 H~ s6 don b~y ho~t d{)ng kinh doanh cua HBC giai do~n 50 45 2005 - 9T2013 Bang 3.9 T6ng hqp rui ro kinh doanh cua HBC 51 Bang 3.10 Tyl~ 52 nq va EPS cua HBC giai do~n 2005 - 9T2013 Bang 3.11 Kha nang toan lai vay cua HBC Bang 3.12 Danh gia tin nhi~m c6ng ty d\fa vao kha nang toan lai 53 54 vay Bang 3.13 Bien lqi nhu~n cua HBC giai do~n 2005 - 9T2013 54 Bang 3.14 Lai su~t trung thfru TPCP ky h~n 10 nam nam 2013 58 Bang 3.15 Lai su~t vay nq binh quan cua HBC nam 2013 59 Bang 3.16 Nq va tai san cua HBC t~i thai di~m 30/09/2013 59 Bang 3.17 Mo phong S\f thay dBi cua chi phi SU d\lng nq (Ro) 60 Bang 3.18 Tinh toan phfrn bu rui ro cua th! truang Vi~t Nam 61 Bang 3.19 Nq vay va VCSH cua HBC dfru ky va cu6i kY 63 Bang 3.20 Mo phong bi~n d{)ng cua chi phi su d\lng v6n chu sa hfru (RE) 64 Bang 3.21 T6ng hgp cac khoang gia tri biSn thien cua cac bi~n s6 d~u vao 64 Bang 3.22 So sanh W ACCmin va WACC thvc t~ 65 Bang 3.23 Cac chi tieu tai chinh cua HBC vao th me b~ng ti€n kha d€u d~n, them vao d6 la trien vt hinh thuc chuyen nq v6n g6p,vira giup giam cy l~ nq, vira tang v6n chu so hfru M(>t khia cc;inh 16n han, huy d(>ng duqc v6n la m(>t chuy~n, quan tn;mg han la sir d\mg ngu6n v6n d6 nhu th€ nao, ca du de c6 chi phi thfrp nhfrt ma hi~u qua lc;ti cao nhfrt Do v~y, xay dvng cfru true v6n m\lc tieu luon luon la mQt doi hoi chinh dang va quan tn;mg d6i v6i cong ty Tuy nhien, nhi~m V\l khong h€ d€ dang, d6 la chua ke d€n d~c diem thi truang tai chinh Vi~t Nam khi€n cho vi~c xay dvng du true v6n m\}C tieu cang them kh6 khan boi cac y€u t6 dfru vao cua mo hinh khong ho~c chua dc;tt chu~n so v6i ly thuy€t n€n Lu~n van da phat tri~n m(>t phuang phap xay dvng du true v6n m\}c tieu m(>t each thtJc t€ v6i cac ngu6n dfr li~u d€ dang ti€p c~n d6i v6i tfrt ca m9i nguai du la nha quan ly cong ty hay nha dfru tu C6 duqc cai nhin dAy du v€ sue khoe tai chinh CUa Cong ty, cac nha quan ly Se CO SCT SO Va m\}C tieu de xay d\fng hut cong C\l t6t de t\f bao v~ minh va nang cao hi~u qua dfru tu hieu r5 v€ tinh hinh tai chinh cua cong ty minh dang nh~m d€n, day chinh la m\}c tieu quan tr9ng nhfrt cua lu~n van TAI LI~U THAM KHAO Danh myc tai li~u ti~ng Vi~t CTCP Chung khoan Ban Vi~t, 2013 Bao cao Phan tich CTCP Xay dl)'ng va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh < http://www.stockbiz.vn/Reports/6640/bao-cao-phan-tichcong-ty-co-phan-xay-dung-va-kinh-doanh-dia-oc-hoa-binh-_khuyen-nghi-themvao.aspx> [Ngay truy c~p: 21thang10 nam 2013] CTCP Xay dµng va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2005 Bao cao tai chinh niim 2005 Thang 12 nam 2005 CTCP Xay dlJilg va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2006 Bao cao tai chinh niim 2006 Thang 12 nam 2006 CTCP Xay dlJilg va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2007 Bao cao tai chinh niim 2007 Thang 12 nam 2007 CTCP Xay dµng va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2008 Bao cao tai chinh niim 2008 Thang 12 nam 2008 CTCP Xay dµng va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2009 Bao cao tai chinh niim 2009 Thang 12 nam 2009 CTCP Xay dµng va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2010 Bao cao tai chinh niim 2010 Thang 12 nam 2010 CTCP Xay dµng va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2011 Bao cao tai chinh niim 2011 Thang 12 nam 2011 CTCP Xay dµng va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2012 Bao cao tai chinh quy niim 2012 Thang 12 nam 2012 10 CTCP Xay dl)'ng va Kinh doanh Dta oc Hoa Binh, 2012 Bao cdo tai chinh nam 2012 Thang 12 nam 2012 11 CTCP Xay dµng va Kinh doanh D!a 6c Hoa Binh, 2013 Bao cao tai chinh quy niim 2013 Thang 03 nam 2013 11 12 CTCP Xay dlJilg va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2013 Bao cao tai chinh quy niim 2013 Thang 06 nam 2013 13 CTCP Xay dlJilg va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2013 Bao cao tai chinh quy niim 2013 Thang 09 nam 2013 14 CTCP Xay dlJilg va Kinh doanh Dia 6c Hoa Binh, 2013 Bao cao thuimg nien niim 2012 Thang 12 nam 2012 15 Doan Ng9c Phi Anh, 2010 Cac nhan t6 anh hm'rng den c§u true tai chinh va hi~u qua tai chinh: ti€p c?n theo phuong phap phan tich dm'rng d~n T(lp chi Khoa h9c va Cong ngh¢ Da Nfing, s6 5, trang 40-43 16 Huynh Cat Tuong, 2008 Khanh ki~t tai chinh va trng dvng mo hinh Z- Score dv bao khanh ki~t tai chinh Lu?n van th~c sl D~i hc Kinh t€ TP HCM 17 Le Thi Kim Thu, 2012 Phan tich cac nhan t6 anh hu"img din cciu true v6n cac CTCP nganh Bcit d{mg san niem yit tren SGDCK TP HCM Lu?n van th~c sI D~i hc Da Ning 18 Ngo Kim Phm;rng va c{)ng sv, 2009 Phan tich tai chinh cong ty TP HCM: Nha xu§t ban D~i hc Qu6c gia TP HCM 19 Nguy~n Minh Ki~u, 2006 Tai chinh cong ty TP HCM: Nha xu§t ban Th6ng Ke 20 Nguy~n Thi Thanh Nga, 2010 Cac nhan t6 tac d Chi Minh 21 Nguy~n Thu Ha, 2010 Cac ly thuyit cciu true v6n hi¢n dgi Da Ning: Truong Cao d~ng Kinh t€ - Ke ho~ch Da Ning 22 Nguy~n Xuan Thanh, 2009 Chi phi v6n c6 phAn cua cong ty FPT Chuong trinh giang dgy kinh ti Gu/bright 23 Qu6c h{)i, 2013 Luqt sU:a dJi, bJ sung m [Accessed 10 August 2013] Bas, T et al., 2009 Determinants ofCapital Structure in Developing Countries [pdf] Available < at: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=l 0.1.1.175.626 l&rep=rep l&typ e=pdt> [Accessed 10 August 2013] Brigham, E F and Houston, J F., 2009 Essentials of Financial Management 12th ed Gainesville: South-Western College Pub Bufema, F et al., 2005 Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from Libya [pdf] Available at: < http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi= 10.1.1.136.5311&rep=rep1 &typ e=pdf> [Accessed 20 August 2013] Chen, J J., 2003 Determinants of Capital Structure of Chinese - listed Companies Journal of Business Research, 57: 1341- 1351 lV Damodaran Online [Accessed 01 October 2013] DeAngelo, H and Masulis, R W., 1980 The Tradeojf Theory of Capital Structure [pdf] Available at: [Accessed 02 August 2013] 10 Hamada, R.S , 1972 The Effect of the Firm's Capital Structure on the Systematic Risk of Common Stocks The Journal of Finance , 27:435-452 11 Huang, S G and Song, F M., 2002 The Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from China [pdf] Available at: [Accessed 15 July 2013] 12 Margaritis, D and Psillaki, M., 2007 Capital Structure and Firm Efficiency Journal ofBusiness Finance & Accounting 34:1447 - 1469 13 Marsh, P., 1982 The Choice Between Equity and Debt: An Empirical Study The Journal ofFinance, 37: 121 - 158 14 Masulis, R W., 1983 The Impact of Capital Structure Change on Firm Value: Some Estimates The Journal of Finance 38: 107 - 126 15 Modigliani, F and Miller, M., 1958 The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment American Economic Review 48: 261-297 16 Myers, S C and Majluf, N S., 1984 Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors not have Journal of Financial Economics 13: 187-221 17 Rajan, R G and Zingales, L., 1995 What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data The journal of Finance, 50: 1421 - 1460 18 Titman, S and Wessels, R , 1988 The Determinant of Capital Structure Choice The j ournal of Finance, 43: - 19 v 19 Wei, X et al., 2005 An empirical study on relationship between corporation performance and capital structure, China-USA Business Review 20 Welch, I., 2004 Capital Structure and Stock Returns Journal of Political Economy, 112: 106 - 131 21 Wiwattanakantang, Y., 1999 The Equity Ownership Structure of Thai Firms [pdf] Available at: [Accessed 20 July 2013] 22 Zeitun, R and Tian, G G., 2007 Capital Structure and Corporate Performance: Evidence from Jordan Australian Accounting Business and Finance Journal I: 40 -61 Danh ID\JC website B9 Tai Chinh < http://www.mof.gov.vn/portal/page/portal/mof_vn> [Ngay truy c~p: 20 thang 1O nam 2013] Cafef < http://s.cafef.vn/hose/HBC-cong-ty-co-phan-xay-dung-va-kinh-doanh-diaoc-hoa-binh.chn> [Ngay truy c~p: 02 thang 09 nam 2013] Cophieu68 < http://www.cophieu68.vn/export.php> [Ngay truy c~p: 05 thang 10 nam 2013] CTCP Dfiu tu Phu Toan [Ngay truy c~p: 15 thang 09 nam 2013] CTCP xay d\l11g va kinh doanh dja oc [Ngay truy Hoa Binh c~p: 05 thang 09 nam 2013] Trading Economics [Accessed 20 October 2013] VI PHU LUC Ph1.1I1.1c1: SB li~u chi ti~t v~ c~u true vBn cua HBC giao do:;tn 2005- 9T2013 ;;; 2009 2010 2011 2012 ;; 46.67% 51.10% 59.22% 72.67% 80.83% 79.03 % 78.58% 9206% 114.92% 155.01% 272.36% 425.91 % 379.94% 38.27% 37.93% 38.39% 4503% 56.69% 70.24% 76.69% 75.25% 67.82% 263 27% 404.05% 361.78% 2005 2006 2007 2008 T6ngng/ ITS 24.70% 38.59% 43.95% Tfing ng! VCSH 33.47% 63 75% Ng ngful h\llilITS 24.70% Ng ng~n h\UlNCSH '' 9T2013 33.47% 63 23% 75 72% 101.26% 148.40% Ng dai h\llil ITS 0.0% 0.3% 6.0% 8.3% 6.1% 2.5% 2.4% 4.1% 3.8% Ng dai h\llil VCSH 0.0% 0.5% 10.8% 16.3% 13.7% 6.6% 9.1% 21.9% 18.2% Nguon : Tinh toan va tong hQ'p cua tac gia tu Mo cao tai chinh cua HBC Ph1.1 I1.1c 2: SB li~u chi ti~t v~ kha nang sinh IQ'i cua HBC giai do:;tn 2005- 9T2013 / ? 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 9T2013 ROA 3.68% 8.31% 4.63% 0.78% 3.94% 8.61% 5.75% 3.33% 2.76% ROE 4.98% 13.73% 8.28% 1.55% 8.85% 22.53% 21.57% 17.54% 14.52% ROD 211.00% 73 03% 25 12% 4.05% 17.46% 31.75% Nguon: Tinh toan va tong hQ'p cua tac gia tit· Mo cao tai chinh cua HBC 20.58% 11.32% 9.40% Ph1.1 I1.1c 3: Chi ti~t cac khoan DQ' vay ng~n h:;tn cua HBC cuBi Q2.2013 Ten ngan hang ' Gia ttj vay(cy ' dong) Dao h~n Lai suit l>~n Tir BIDV-CN Q l 437,14 07/08/2013 30/0/2013 CTG-CNHCM 353,84 23/07/2013 Standard Chartered 234,58 HSBC VN - CN HCM 168,82 VCB-CN HCM ' ,;rir" / ; l>~n , , \ Truog binh Ti~n lai (Ty ttAng) 7,50% 9,50% 8,50% 37,16 30/12/2013 7% 9% 8,00% 28,31 04/07/2013 25/10/2013 5,60% 6,90% 6,25% 14,66 03/07/2013 24/10/2013 5,90% 6,50% 6,20% 10,47 146,02 26/09/2013 27/03/2014 8,00% 10,00% 9,00% 13,14 ABB-CNHCM 25,73 04/07/2013 24/ 12/2013 13 ,00% 15,00% 14,00% 3,60 BIDV - CN Phu Nhu~n 13,53 27111/2013 25/12/2013 10,00% 12,00% 11,00% 1,49 BIDV-CN HCM 8, 16 23/09/2013 18/ 12/2013 8,80% 9,80% 9,30% 0,76 ACB -Trt,1 s6 2,00 16,00% 16,00% 16,00% 0,32 ca nhan Quy d~u tu cua nhan vi en Tbng Lai suiit trung binh 6,21 8,00% 18,00% 13 ,00% 0,81 10,00% 10,00% 10,00% 0,12 trone: s6 1, 17 21 /06/2013 17/08/2013 23/06/2014 Khong xac d!nh 1,397,22 110,83 7,93% Nguon : Tong h9p cua tac gia tu Mo cao tai chinh Q2.2013 cua HBC Vll Phy lye 4: Chi ti~t cac khoan % Gia tr! ,.\ vay (cy 01//2007 02/2007 TSSL TSSLciia ' TSSLciia ' Thang · VN-lndex · cuaHBC HBC do~n k• TSSLctta'' Thang VN-lndex "' h 0112007 - 09/2013 TSSL ciia HBC TSSI.:ciia VN-Index -'~' -8,8% 38,5% 04/2009 10,0% 14,6% 07/2011 4,0% -6,2% 9,7% 9,3% 05/2009 46,0% 28,0% 08/2011 -0,7% 4,7% -5,8% 0612009 9,7% 8,9% 09/2011 -5,3% 0,7% 03/2007 -7,8% 04/2007 -16,0% -13 ,8% 07/2009 -3 ,5% 4, 1% 10/2011 -7,6% -1 ,6% 05/2007 57,0% 17,1% 08/2009 26,1% 17,1% 11 /2011 -7,4% -9,5% 06/2007 0,8% -5,3% 09/2009 5,2% 6,2% 12/2011 2,2% -7,7% 07/2007 15, 1% -11 ,4% 10/2009 9,7% 1,1% 01 /2012 13,5% 10,4% 08/2007 19,2% 0,0% 11/2009 -15,2% -14,1% 02/2012 -3,1% 9,2% 09/2007 -0,8% 15,2% 12/2009 0,9% -1,9% 03/2012 7,9% 4,1% 10/2007 9,8% 1,7% 01/2010 9,7% -2,6% 04/2012 53 ,7% 7,4% 11/2007 -11,1% -8,7% 02/2010 0,5% 3,1% 05/2012 -14,6% -9,4% 12/2007 -1,7% -4,7% 03/2010 -2,7% 0,5% 06/2012 1,3% -1 ,6% 01 /2008 -13 ,6% -8,9% 04/2010 18,7% 8,6% 07/2012 3,8% -1 ,9% 02/2008 -22,5% -21 ,4% 05/2010 -7,4% -6,4% 08/2012 -15,7% -4,5% 03/2008 -21 ,5% -22, 1% 06/2010 -2,7% -0,1% 09/2012 -9,3% -0,9% 04/2008 -17,7% 1,1% 07/2010 26,1% -2,6% 10/2012 -5,5% -1,1% -2,7% 05/2008 -26, 1% -20,7% 08/2010 -7,0% -7,9% 11/2012 -1,7% 06/2008 -10,6% -3,5% 09/2010 -3 ,9% -0,1% 12/2012 10,2% 9,5% 07/2008 -4,6% 13,0% 10/2010 10,5% -0,4% 01/2013 16,2% 16,0% 08/2008 19,5% 19,4% 11 /2010 -7,0% -0,2% 02/2013 9,9% -1 , 1% 09/2008 -31 ,2% -15,3% 12/2010 2,4% 7,3% 03/2013 1,2% 3,5% 10/2008 -28,0% -24,0% 01 /2011 5,7% 5,4% 04/2013 -4,8% -3 ,4% 11/2008 -11 ,8% -9,3% 02/2011 -26,1% -9,6% 05/2013 11,3% 9,2% 12/2008 8,0% 0,3% 03/2011 -3,0% -0,1% 06/2013 -2,5% -7,2% 01/2009 -1 ,9% -3,9% 04/2011 -2,5% 4,1% 07/2013 -0,6% 2,2% 02/2009 -13,2% -19,0% 05/2011 -5,8% - 12,2% 08/2013 -12,3% -3 ,9% 03/2009 15,9% 14,2% 06/2011 -6,2% 2,7% 09/2013 0,0% 4,2% Nguon: Tong hr;Jp va tinh toan cua tac gia tuhttp://www cophieu68.vn/export.php x Ph\I ll)c 8: K~t qua ch~y hBi quy xac djnh h~ sfi beta cua HBC SUMMARY OUTPUT R e~ression Statistics Multiple R 0,635 R Square Adjusted R Square 0,403 0,395 Standard Error 0, 122 Observations 81 ANOVA Significance F SS MS F I 0,800 0,800 53,44 l ,8949E-10 Residual 79 1,183 0,014 Total 80 1,983 Coefficients Standard Error P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Intercept 0,004 0,013 0,3 16 -0,022 0,031 -0,022 0,03 X Variable 0.923 0,126 7,310 0,752 l,89E10 0,671 1, 174 0,671 1,174 Df Regression t Stat Upper 95,0% Nguon: Tong hr;p va tinh toan cua tac gia Phl) ll)c 9: Chi ti~t qua trinh mo phong W ACC 02/A# 02 (Ty) 1% Rd WACC 02/A# D2 (tY) D/A E/A 12,65% 0.09% 6224% 51% 1.130 52 75 79% 2421% 484 1% 1268% 0.]8% 6209% 52% 1.152,68 76,29% 47 92% 12 71% 027% 6193% 53% 1.1 74,85 76,78% 1.197,02 DIA E/A Re 22 17 5110% 4890% 2% 44 33 59% 3% 66 50 5208% Rd WACC 15 16% 18% 66 14% 23 ,71% 15,26% 5,50% 6,766% 23,22% 15,37% 5,57% 6,776% 77,28% 22,72% 15,48% 5,64% 6,786% Re 4% 88 67 52 58% 47 42% 12 73% 036% 6178% 54% 5% 110 83 53 07% 4693% 12 76% 0.44% 6163% 55% 1.219,18 77,77% 22,23% 15,60% 5,7 1% 6,796% 6% 133,00 53 57% 46,43% 12 79% 0.52% 6148% 56% 1.241 ,3 78,26% 21 ,74% 15,72% 5,77% 6,806% 7% 55 17 54,06% 45 94% 12 81% D.61% 6132% 56,7% 1.255,81 78,59% 21,41% 15,81% 5,82% 6,813°/., 8% 77 34 54 55% 45,45% 12,84% 069% 11 7% 57% 1.263,52 78,76% 21,24% 15,85% 5,84% 6,8 17% 9% 199,50 55,05% 44 95% 1287% 077% 6102% 58% 1.285,69 79,25% 20,75% 15,99% 5,9 1% 6,827% 10% 22 67 55 54% 44 46% 1290% 087% 098% 59% 1.307,85 79,75% 20,25% 16, 13% 5,97% 6,837% 11 % 243,84 5604% 43 96% 1293% 095% 084% 60% 1.330,02 80,24% 19,76% 16,28% 6,03% 6,847% 16,43% 6,10% 6,857% 16,59% 6,16% 6,867% 12% 266 00 56 53% 4347% 1296% I 04% 6076% 1% 1.352,19 80,73% 19,27% 13% 288 ,17 57 02% 42.98% 12,99% 1, 12% 6063% 62% 1.374,35 81,23% 18,77% Xl 14% 310 34 57,52% 42,48% 13,03% 1,19% 6049% 63% 1.396,52 81,72% 18,28% 16,77% 6,79% 7,227% 15% 332,50 58,01% 41.99% 13,06% 1,29% 6,044% 64% 1.4 18,69 82,22% 17,78% 16,95% 6,86% 7,243% 6,92% 7,259% 16% 354,67 58,51% 41,49% 1309% 1,36% 6,031% 65% 1.440,85 82,7 1% 17,29% 17, 14% 17% 376,84 59,00% 4100% 13 13% 1,44% 60 18% 66% 1.463,02 83,20% 16,80% 17,35% 6,99% 7,275% 18% 399,0J 59,49% 40,5 1% 1316% 1,5 1% 6,005% 67% 1.485, 19 83,70% 16,30% 17,56% 7,05% 7,290% 19,0% 421 17 59,99% 4001% 13 20% 1,62% 6,013% 68% 1.507,36 84,19% 15,81% 17,79% 7,12% 7,306% 20% 443,34 6048% 39 52% 13 24% l 70% 6,001% 69% 1.529,52 84,69% 15,31% 18,04% 7, 18% 7,322% 21% 465,51 60,98% 39,02% 13 28% 77% 5,989% 70% 1.55 1,69 85 ,18% 14,82% 18,30% 7,24% 7,337% 1.573,86 85,67 % 14 ,33% 18,58% 7,30% 7,353% 22% 487,67 6147% 38 53% 13,32% 1,84% 977% 71% 23% 509,84 1,96% 3804% 13 36% 190% 965% 72% 1.596,02 86,17% 13,83% 18,88% 7,36% 7,369% 24% 532,01 62,46% 37,54% 1340% 1,97% 953% 73% 1.618,19 86,66% 13,34% 19,20% 7,42% 7,384% 25% 554 17 62,95% 37 05% 13 44% 2,04% 5,941% 74% 1.640,36 87,16% 12,84% 19,55% 7,48% 7,400% 258% 571 91 63,35% 3665% 1347% 209% 932% 75% 1.662,52 87,65% 12,35% 19,92% 7,54% 7,416% 26% 576 34 6344% 36 56% 13 48% 2,24% 5,997% 76% 1.684,69 88,14% 11 ,86% 20,33% 7,60% 7,431% 27% 598,51 63,94% 3606% 13,53% 23 1% 5,987% 77% 1.706,86 88,64% 11 ,36% 20,77% 7,65% 7,447% 28% 620 68 6443% 35 57% 13 58% 2,38% 978% 78% 1,729,02 89, 13% 10,87% 21,25% 7,71% 7,463% 89,63% 10,37% 1,77% 7,77% 7,479% 29% 642,84 64 ,93% 35 07% 1362% 2,45% 969% 79% 1,75 1,19 30% 665 01 65 42% 34 58% 13 67% 2,51% 5,959% 80% 1,773,36 90,12% 9,88% 22,35% 7,82% 7,494% 31% 687 18 659 1% 34,09% 13 72% 2,58% 950% 81% 1,795,53 90,6 1% 9,39% 22,99% 7,88% 7,510% 32% 709 34 6641% 33.59% 13 77% 2,88% 6059% 82% 1.8 17,69 1,11 % 8,89% 23,70% 7,93% 7,526% 33% 73 1,51 66,90% 33,10% 13,83% 2,94% 6,054% 83% 1.839,86 1,60% 8,40% 24 ,49% 7,98% 7,541 % 34% 753 68 67 40% 3260% 13 88% 3,01% 048% 84% 1.862,03 92,10% 7,90% 25 ,3 9% 8,04% 7,557% 35% 775 84 67 89% 32 11 % 13 94% 33% 172% 85% 1.884 ,19 92,59% 7,41% 26,40% 8,09% 7,573% 36% 798 01 68 38% 31 62% 14 00% 340% 6170% 86% 1.906,36 93,08% 6,92% 27,56% 8,14% 7,588% 1.928,53 93 ,58% 6,42% 28,89% 8,19% 7,604% 37% 820 18 68 88% 3112% 1406% 47% 168% 87% 38% 842 35 69,37% 3063% 14,12% 54% 6,167% 88% 1.950,69 94 ,07% 5,93% 30,45% 8,24% 7,620% 39% 864 51 6987% 3013% 14,18% 402% 6,38 1% 89% 1,972,86 94 ,57% 5,43% 32,29% 8,29% 7,635% 40% 886 68 70 36% 29,64% 1425% 10% 385% 90% 1.995,03 95,06% 4,94% 34,50% 8,34% 7,65 1% 41% 908 85 70 85% 29 15% 1432% 17% 6,389% 91% 2.0 17,20 95 ,55% 4,45% 37 ,20% 8,39% 7,667% 42% 93 1,01 71 35% 28 65% 1439% 24% 392% 92% 2.039,36 96,05% 3,95% 40,5 8% 8,44% 7,682% 43% 953, 18 71 84% 2816% 1446% 31% 396% 93% 2.06 1,53 96,54% 3,46% 44,91% 8,49% 7,698% 8,53% 7,714% 44% 975 35 72 34% 27 66% 14 54% 38% 6400% 94% 2.083,70 97,04% 2,96% 50,70% 45% 997 51 72 83% 27 17% 1462% 76% 570% 95% 105,86 97,53% 2,47% 58,80% 8,58% 7,730% 46% 1.019 68 73.32% 26,68% 14,70% 83% 6,577% 96% 128,03 98,02% 1,98% 70,95% 8,63% 7,745% 47% 1.041 85 73 ,82% 26 18% 1478% 490% 6.585% 97% 150,20 98,52% 1,48% 1,20% 9,04% 8,030% 48% 1.064,02 74 31% 25 69% 1487% 497% 6592% 98% 172,36 99,01% 0,99% 131,70% 9,09% 8,049% 49% 1.086,18 74 ,81% 25 19% 14,96% 04% 599% 99% 194 ,53 99,51% 0,49% 253,20% 9,13% 8,067% 6607% 100% 2.2 16,70 100,00% 0,00% #DIV/0' 9,18% #DIV/O! 50% I I 08,35 75 ,30% 24,70% f5,06% 5,11% Nguon: Tong h 51% 1.41 3,72 71 30% 28,7% 1,435 896 7176% D/A E/A , + Re Rd WACC 15,32% 3% 6,816% 28,2% 1540% 4,39% 6807% 0% 41 4% 58,5% 12,6% 000% 7,39% 1% 27,72 42,0% 57,9% 12,6% 13% 7,383% 2% 55,44 42,5% 57,41 % 12,68% 0,26% 368% 52% 1.44 1,44 71,88% 28,12% 15,43% 4,70% 6,97 1% 3% 83 16 43,18% 56,82% 12,7 1% 0,39% 7,3 52% 53% 1.469, 16 72,47% 27,53% 15,54% 4,75% 6,963% 4% 110 88 43 76% 56 24% 1274% 0,51% 337% 54% 1.496,88 73 ,05% 26,95% 15 66% 4,80% 6,955% 5% 138,6 44,35% 55,65% 12,77% 0,63% 7321% 55% 1.524,6 73,64% 26,36% 15,78% 4,85% 946% 6% 166 32 44,93% 55 ,07% 12,79% 0,74% 7,305% 56% 1.552,32 74,22% 25,78% 15,91% 4,90% 6,938% 12,82% 0,85% 7,290% 57% 1580,04 74,81% 25,19% 16,05% 4,95% 6,930% 51,8% 7% 194,04 45,52% 54,48% 8% 22 1,76 46,11 % 53 89% 12 85% 0,96% 7,274% 58% 1.607,76 75,40% 24,60% 16 19% 5,00% 6,922% 9% 249,48 4669% 53 31% 12,89% 07% 7,259% 59% 1.635,48 75 ,98% 24 02% 16 34% 504% 6,913% 10% 277,2 47,28% 52,72% 12,92% 118% 7,243% 60% 1.663,2 76,57% 23,43% 16,50% 09% 6905% ll% 304,92 47,86% 52,14% 12,95% 1,28% 7,228% 61% 1.690,92 77 ,15% 22 ,85% 16,67% 13% 6,897% 12% 332 64 4845% 51 ,55% 12,98% 1,38% 7,212% 62% 1.7 18,64 77,74% 22 ,26% 1684% 5,18% 6,889% 13% 360,36 49,04% 50,96% 13,02% 1,47% 7,197% 63% 1.746,36 78,33% 21 67% 17,02% 569% 7,168% 14% 388,08 49,62% 50,38% 13,05% 1,57% 7,181% 64% 1.774,08 78,9 1% 21,09% 17,22% 5,74% 7,165% 15% 415,8 50,21% 49,79% 13,09% 1,66% 7,166% 65% 1.80 1,8 79,50% 20,50% 17,4 2% 5,79% 7,161% 16% 443,52 50,79% 49,2 1% 13 12% 75% 7,150% 66% 1.829,52 80,08% 19,92% 17,64% 5,83% 7,157% 17% 471,24 51,38% 48,62% 13,16% 1,84% 7,135% 67% 1.857,24 80 67% 19,33% 17,87% 5,88% 7, 154% 18% 498 96 51 96% 48,04% 13 20% 92% 711 9% 68% 1.884 96 81 25% 18 75% 18 11% 592% 150% 19% 526 68 52 55% 47 45% 13 24% 2,07% 7130% 69% 1.912 68 81 84% 18 16% 18 37% 97% 146% 20% 554 5314% 46 86% 13 28% 16% 115% 70% 1.940,4 82,43% 17,57% 18,65% 65 1% 463% 1% 582,12 53 72% 46 28% 13 32% 224% 101% 71 % 1.968,12 83 01 % 16 99% 18,95% 56% 7,464% 22% 609 84 54 31% 45,69% 1336% 32% 087% 72% 1.995 84 83 60% 16 40% 1926% 660% 464% 23% 637 56 54,89% 4511 % 13 40% 40% 073% 73% 2.023 56 841 8% 15 82% 19,61% 65% 7,465% 24% 665 28 55 48% 44 52% 13 44% 252% 07 5% 74% 2.05 28 8477% 15 23% 1997% 69% 7,466% 25% 693 00 56 07% 43 93% 13 49% 260% 062% 75% 2.079 85 36% 14,64% 20 37% 6,74% 467% 26% 720 72 5665% 43 35% 13 54% 267% 048% 76% 10672 85 94% 14 06% 20 80% 78% 468% 27% 748 44 57 24% 42 76% 13 58% 75% 035% 77% 2.13444 86 53% 13 47% 21,27% 682% 469% 28% 776 16 57,82% 42 18% 13 63% 2,82% 021% 78% 2.162, 16 87, 11 % 12,89% 21,78% 7,65% 005% 29% 803,88 58,4 1% 41 59% 13 68% 2,93% 7,028% 79% 2.189 88 87 70% 12,30% 22 34% 7,70% 8,0 12% 80% 2.217,6 88,28% 11 ,72% 22,95% 7,74% 8,020% 30% ·~- 83 58 99% •¥ i;.,,,,_ 41 01% 13 74% ,; ~ , ~· '· 300% '" 70 15% ,, , 1% 859 32 59 58% 4042% 13 79% 07% 7,002% 81% 2.245 32 88 87% 11 ,13% 23 ,63% 79% 8,028% 32% 887 04 60 17% 39 83% 13,84% 3,14% 989% 82% 2.273 ,04 89,46% 10 54% 24 38% 83% 036% 33% 91 76 607% 39 2% 13 9% 321% 6,976% 83% 2.300,76 9004% 9,96% 25 23% 7,88% 8,043% 34% 942,48 61 34% 38,66% 13,96% 3,27% 6964% 84% 2.328,48 90,63% 937% 26 ,18% 7,92% 8,051 % XIV 35% 970,20 1.92% 38,08% 14,02% 334% 951% 85% 2.356,2 91,21% 8,79% 27,25% 7,96% 8,059% 36% 997 92 62 51% 37,49% 14,08% 340% 6,938% 86% 2.383,92 80% 8,20% 28,48% 800% 8,067% 37% 1.025,64 6309% 3691% 1415% 57% 6,976% 87% 2.41 1,64 92,38% 62% 29,90% 8,05% 8,074% 38% 1.053,36 63,68% 36,32% 14,2 1% 3,63% 6,965% 88% 2.439,36 92,97% 7,03% 31,55% 809% 8,082% 39% 1.081 ,08 64 ,27% 35,73% 14,28% 3,69% 6,953% 89% 2.467 ,08 93,56% 6,44% 33,50% 68% 8,497% 40% 1.108,8 64,85% 35,15% 14 35% 3,75% 6.942% 90% 2.494,8 94,14% 5,86% 35 ,85% 8,73% 8,509% 41% 1.1 36 52 65 44% 34 56% 14,42% 381% 930% 91% 2.522,52 94 ,73% 5,27% 38,72% 8,77% 8,521% 42% 1.1 64 24 66 02% 33 98% 1450% 87% 6,919% 92% 2.550,24 95,3 1% 4,69% 42,30% 8,81% 8,534% 43% 1.191 96 66,61% 33,39% 14 58% 93% 6,907% 93% 2.577,96 95 ,90% 4,10% 46,91% 8,85% 8,546% 44% 1.219,68 67,20% 32.80% 14,66% 3,98% 6,896% 94% 2.605 68 96,49% 3,51% 53 ,05% 8,89% 8,558% 45% 1.247.4 67,78% 32,22% 14,74% 4,04% 6,885% 95% 2.633 97 ,07% 2,93% 1,65% 893% 57 1% 46% 1.275,12 68,37% 31 ,63% 14.83% 4,09% 873% 96% 2.66 1,12 97 ,66% 34% 74 ,55% 8,97% 8,583% 47% 1302 84 6895% 31,05% 14,92% 4,15% 862% 97% 2.688 84 98 24% 1,76% 96,05% 9,0 1% 8,595% 48% 1.330 56 6954% 30,46% 150 1% 4,20% 6850% 98% 2.716,56 98,83% 1,17% 139,05% 9,05% 8,608% 49% 1.358,28 7012% :9,88% 15,1 1% 4,25% 6,839% 99% 2.744.28 99,4 1% 059% 268,05% 9,09% 8,620% 50% 1.386 70,71% 2929% 15,21% 4,30% 6,828% 100% 2.772 100,00% 000% #DIV/0' 9,13% #DIV/QI Ngu6n: Tong h