Các nhân tố tác động đến dòng thương mại Việt Nam và các nước tham gia đàm phán hiệp định TPP Luận văn thạc sĩ

B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH NGUY N TH KIM NGÂN CÁC NHÂN T N DÒNG I GI A VI T NAM VÀ CÁC P LU Tp H Chí Minh - NH TPP B GIÁO D O I H C KINH T TP H CHÍ MINH NGUY N TH KIM NGÂN CÁC NHÂN T N DÒNG I GI A VI T NAM VÀ CÁC NH TPP Chuyên ngành: Kinh doanh i Mã s : 60340121 LU NG D N KHOA H C: TS TRI U H NG C M Tp H Chí Minh - L ng lu i gi a Vi u c a riêng tơi, nh ng k t qu trình bày lu u nh ng k t qu m i ng xu t hi n cơng trình nghiên c r ng thông tin d li cs d u trung th c trích d n v i ngu n g c rõ ràng TP H Chí Minh, tháng 10 H c viên Nguy n Th Kim Ngân M CL C Trang ph bìa L M cl c Danh m c vi t t t Danh m c b ng s li u D nh m , bi Tóm t t 1 L i m tv u 1.2 M c tiêu nghiên c u ng ph m vi nghiên c u u ic 1.6 K t c u c a lu K t lu tài 10 lý thuy t mơ hình nghiên c u 11 2.1 Nghiên c u lý thuy t v mơ hình tr ng l i qu c t 11 2.1.1 Nhóm y u t n cung 16 2.1.2 Nhóm y u t n c u 17 2.1.3 Nhóm y u t h p d n hay c n tr 18 2.2 Nghiên c u th c nghi m v mơ hình tr ng l K t lu i qu c t 19 29 Thi t k nghiên c u 30 3.1 Mơ hình kinh t ng 30 u l a ch phân tích 32 ng mơ hình 32 3.2.2 Các ki c th c hi n nghiên c u 34 3.3 Ngu n d li u nghiên c u 36 K t lu 38 Phân tích k t qu nghiên c u 39 4.1 T ng quan tình hình xu t-nh p kh u hàng hóa gi a Vi c thành viên TPP 39 4.2 Th ng kê mô t 41 4.3 K t qu nghiên c u 44 K t lu 57 Nh ng gi ym i gi a Vi t Nam c TPP 58 5.1 K t lu n 58 5.2 M t s ki n ngh gi i pháp nh ym i gi a Vi t Nam nh TPP 60 5.2.1 Nhóm gi i pháp Chính ph th c hi n 60 5.2.2 Nhóm gi 5.2.3 Nhóm gi i pháp B c Vi t Nam th c hi n 61 c hi n 62 5.2.4 Nhóm gi i pháp doanh nghi p th c hi n 63 5.3 H n ch c a nghiên c K t lu ng nghiên c u ti p theo 65 66 K t lu n chung 67 Danh m c tài li u tham kh o Ph l c DANH M C VI T T T AFTA (ASEAN Free Trade Area): Khu v i t ASEAN ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations): Hi p h i qu Nam Á CPI (Consumer price index): ch s giá tiêu dùng EU (European Union): Liên minh châu Âu FEM (Fixed Effects Method ng c nh FGLS (feasible generalized least squares): i thi u t ng quát FTA (Free trade area): Hi i t GDP (Gross Domestic Product): t ng s n ph m qu c n i GNP (Gross National Product): T ng s n ph m qu c gia IMF (International Monetary Fund): Qu ti n t qu c t MERCOSUR (Mercado Común del Cono Sur): Kh i th ng chung Nam M MFN (Most Favoured Nation): nguyên t c t i hu qu c NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement): Hi i t B c M NER (Nominal exchange rate): t giá h NIC c công nghi p m i OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development): T ch c h p tác phát tri n kinh t Pooled OLS c ti u ng k t h p REM ng ng u nhiên SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation): Hi p h i h p tác khu v c Nam Á TCTK: T ng c c th ng kê TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership): Hi nh H p tác kinh t chi c xuyên Thái VIF (Variance inflating factor): Th a s WDI (the World Development Indicators): Ch s phát tri n th gi i WRIs (World resources Institutions ): Vi n tài nguyên th gi i WTO (World Trade Organization): T ch i th gi i DANH M C B NG S LI U B ng 1.1 Hi nh TPP p B ng 2.1 Các bi n mơ hình nghiên c i qu c t nghiên c ng c n dòng c 25 B ng 3.1 Ngu n d li u bi n mơ hình 37 B ng 4.1 Phân tích mơ t d li u c n 2000-2012 41 B ng 4.2 Phân tích mơ t d li u bi n gi c a c thành viên TPP n 2000-2012 42 B ng 4.3 Ma tr a bi n mơ hình nghiên c u 43 B ng 4.4 K t qu ch s nhân t B ng 4.5 K t qu l a ch B ng 4.6 K t qu ki B ng 4.7 K t qu ki i VIF c a bi n mơ hình 43 ng 44 nh F- ng Fixed Effect Method 45 nh Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test cho ng Random Effect Method 46 B ng 4.8 K t qu ki nh Hausman test cho k t qu ng b ng FEM hay REM 46 B ng 4.9 K t qu bao g m bi n gi th i gian 47 B ng 4.10 Ki B ng 4.11 K t qu ki kinh t ng v i bi B ng 4.12 Ki ng c a bi n gi th i gian lên bi n ph thu c 48 tin c y chung c a h s mơ hình c l p 48 i mơ hình REM pháp Breusch-Pagan Lagrange multiplier) 49 B ng 4.13 Ki nh t (Ki nh nhân t Lagrange) 49 B ng 4.14 K t qu B ng 4.15 K t qu 50 ng nhân t i gi a Vi t Nam 51 B ng 4.16 K t qu ch s nhân t lo i b bi n gây hi i VIF c a bi n mơ hình sau ng n 51 DANH M Bi 1.1 T tr ng GDP toàn kh i TPP Bi 1.2 Hi Bi 1.3 Thu quan trung bình c i hi n có gi a thành viên TPP 2.1 Mơ hình tr ng l Bi , BI .4 i qu c t 16 i gi a Vi c thành viên TPP giai n 2000-2012 39 Bi 4.2 T ng GDP c Hi p nh n 2000-2012 .52 Singapore 2008 12,091,799,432 9,377,975,426 2,713,824,006 Singapore 2009 6,323,977,073 4,248,355,912 2,075,621,161 Singapore 2010 6,222,458,708 4,101,145,110 2,121,313,598 Singapore 2011 8,539,827,479 6,390,575,285 2,149,252,194 Singapore 2012 9,058,666,144 6,690,983,605 2,367,682,539 United States 2000 1,096,840,000 363,886,000 732,954,000 United States 2001 1,477,031,845 411,339,103 1,065,692,742 United States 2002 2,911,864,356 458,634,730 2,453,229,626 United States 2003 5,083,673,675 1,144,114,543 3,939,559,132 United States 2004 6,163,988,561 1,137,382,435 5,026,606,126 United States 2005 6,792,702,499 865,258,674 5,927,443,825 United States 2006 8,838,203,808 987,788,346 7,850,415,462 United States 2007 11,811,891,787 1,700,464,260 10,111,427,527 United States 2008 14,554,848,658 2,652,014,853 11,902,833,805 United States 2009 14,435,047,420 3,019,429,698 11,415,617,722 United States 2010 18,030,685,632 3,779,835,530 14,250,850,102 United States 2011 21,525,682,385 4,555,260,385 16,970,422,000 United States 2012 24,522,658,204 4,841,729,698 19,680,928,506 Ph l c (ti p theo) B ng d li u c a bi n Country Year Yi (USD) Yj (USD) Dij (Km) Australia 2000 123,687,486,916 503,196,095,984 7,740 Australia 2001 134,356,655,335 531,434,540,451 7,740 Australia 2002 145,044,188,998 564,873,723,314 7,740 Australia 2003 158,149,395,798 592,747,183,280 7,740 Australia 2004 174,730,149,108 630,571,611,202 7,740 Australia 2005 193,944,721,053 663,352,296,741 7,740 Australia 2006 213,856,237,726 706,742,895,893 7,740 Australia 2007 235,183,252,991 761,065,046,328 7,740 Australia 2008 253,353,169,524 794,633,684,250 7,740 Australia 2009 269,084,196,603 872,942,460,163 7,740 Australia 2010 289,834,511,747 862,588,352,221 7,740 Australia 2011 313,968,385,569 940,263,659,082 7,740 Australia 2012 336,220,553,710 1,011,639,399,650 7,740 Brunei Darussalam 2000 123,687,486,916 14,113,415,699 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2001 134,356,655,335 14,832,923,019 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2002 145,044,188,998 15,644,023,935 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2003 158,149,395,798 16,420,026,023 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2004 174,730,149,108 16,955,216,352 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2005 193,944,721,053 17,566,847,030 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2006 213,856,237,726 18,903,164,058 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2007 235,183,252,991 19,434,827,878 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2008 253,353,169,524 19,430,304,612 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2009 269,084,196,603 19,234,199,619 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2010 289,834,511,747 19,972,964,877 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2011 313,968,385,569 20,814,955,083 2,036 Brunei Darussalam 2012 336,220,553,710 21,635,212,602 2,036 Canada 2000 123,687,486,916 874,086,093,263 12,616 Canada 2001 134,356,655,335 909,847,896,920 12,616 Canada 2002 145,044,188,998 937,829,320,471 12,616 Canada 2003 158,149,395,798 989,274,809,576 12,616 Canada 2004 174,730,149,108 1,048,820,536,104 12,616 Canada 2005 193,944,721,053 1,131,999,961,696 12,616 Canada 2006 213,856,237,726 1,200,850,128,751 12,616 Canada 2007 235,183,252,991 1,262,848,987,444 12,616 Canada 2008 253,353,169,524 1,298,955,724,799 12,616 Canada 2009 269,084,196,603 1,274,897,145,913 12,616 Canada 2010 289,834,511,747 1,333,487,247,505 12,616 Canada 2011 313,968,385,569 1,427,357,403,807 12,616 Canada 2012 336,220,553,710 1,483,585,959,453 12,616 Chile 2000 123,687,486,916 150,108,085,152 18,579 Chile 2001 134,356,655,335 158,651,009,203 18,579 Chile 2002 145,044,188,998 164,720,969,396 18,579 Chile 2003 158,149,395,798 174,845,655,625 18,579 Chile 2004 174,730,149,108 190,630,862,112 18,579 Chile 2005 193,944,721,053 208,688,903,211 18,579 Chile 2006 213,856,237,726 256,101,386,850 18,579 Chile 2007 235,183,252,991 279,522,356,146 18,579 Chile 2008 253,353,169,524 276,616,377,375 18,579 Chile 2009 269,084,196,603 275,091,462,365 18,579 Chile 2010 289,834,511,747 319,123,624,725 18,579 Chile 2011 313,968,385,569 363,488,181,845 18,579 Chile 2012 336,220,553,710 390,557,694,784 18,579 Japan 2000 123,687,486,916 3,287,033,585,570 3,667 Japan 2001 134,356,655,335 3,373,502,790,729 3,667 Japan 2002 145,044,188,998 3,471,742,387,557 3,667 Japan 2003 158,149,395,798 3,567,729,606,686 3,667 Japan 2004 174,730,149,108 3,754,626,421,311 3,667 Japan 2005 193,944,721,053 3,889,582,374,715 3,667 Japan 2006 213,856,237,726 4,057,923,330,700 3,667 Japan 2007 235,183,252,991 4,267,103,259,405 3,667 Japan 2008 253,353,169,524 4,289,492,996,796 3,667 Japan 2009 269,084,196,603 4,049,391,183,714 3,667 Japan 2010 289,834,511,747 4,290,995,014,457 3,667 Japan 2011 313,968,385,569 4,325,092,520,414 3,667 Japan 2012 336,220,553,710 4,487,301,197,933 3,667 Malaysia 2000 123,687,486,916 221,398,006,437 2,038 Malaysia 2001 134,356,655,335 227,642,898,539 2,038 Malaysia 2002 145,044,188,998 243,601,754,840 2,038 Malaysia 2003 158,149,395,798 262,852,535,884 2,038 Malaysia 2004 174,730,149,108 288,377,148,782 2,038 Malaysia 2005 193,944,721,053 313,496,403,321 2,038 Malaysia 2006 213,856,237,726 341,180,799,669 2,038 Malaysia 2007 235,183,252,991 372,294,648,305 2,038 Malaysia 2008 253,353,169,524 397,908,452,418 2,038 Malaysia 2009 269,084,196,603 394,901,665,511 2,038 Malaysia 2010 289,834,511,747 429,358,226,461 2,038 Malaysia 2011 313,968,385,569 460,239,197,860 2,038 Malaysia 2012 336,220,553,710 494,696,005,919 2,038 Mexico 2000 123,687,486,916 1,073,075,174,923 14,751 Mexico 2001 134,356,655,335 1,085,682,094,015 14,751 Mexico 2002 145,044,188,998 1,105,728,995,603 14,751 Mexico 2003 158,149,395,798 1,143,253,097,523 14,751 Mexico 2004 174,730,149,108 1,211,600,527,022 14,751 Mexico 2005 193,944,721,053 1,330,671,214,935 14,751 Mexico 2006 213,856,237,726 1,466,665,458,511 14,751 Mexico 2007 235,183,252,991 1,547,317,638,590 14,751 Mexico 2008 253,353,169,524 1,640,914,558,044 14,751 Mexico 2009 269,084,196,603 1,632,385,039,399 14,751 Mexico 2010 289,834,511,747 1,739,641,586,241 14,751 Mexico 2011 313,968,385,569 1,915,005,518,238 14,751 Mexico 2012 336,220,553,710 2,022,201,852,138 14,751 New Zealand 2000 123,687,486,916 82,116,338,230 9,900 New Zealand 2001 134,356,655,335 86,433,079,344 9,900 New Zealand 2002 145,044,188,998 91,157,350,452 9,900 New Zealand 2003 158,149,395,798 95,592,370,835 9,900 New Zealand 2004 174,730,149,108 101,427,280,683 9,900 New Zealand 2005 193,944,721,053 105,306,075,169 9,900 New Zealand 2006 213,856,237,726 114,275,194,800 9,900 New Zealand 2007 235,183,252,991 122,156,484,544 9,900 New Zealand 2008 253,353,169,524 124,474,091,554 9,900 New Zealand 2009 269,084,196,603 130,484,157,420 9,900 New Zealand 2010 289,834,511,747 133,462,387,795 9,900 New Zealand 2011 313,968,385,569 139,434,233,887 9,900 New Zealand 2012 336,220,553,710 142,832,103,932 9,900 Peru 2000 123,687,486,916 127,613,914,997 18975 Peru 2001 134,356,655,335 130,818,230,903 18975 Peru 2002 145,044,188,998 139,496,680,060 18975 Peru 2003 158,149,395,798 148,021,665,698 18975 Peru 2004 174,730,149,108 159,647,862,019 18975 Peru 2005 193,944,721,053 176,016,624,588 18975 Peru 2006 213,856,237,726 195,470,985,050 18975 Peru 2007 235,183,252,991 218,454,022,416 18975 Peru 2008 253,353,169,524 244,463,748,240 18975 Peru 2009 269,084,196,603 248,617,539,720 18975 Peru 2010 289,834,511,747 273,747,985,507 18975 Peru 2011 313,968,385,569 298,394,790,639 18975 Peru 2012 336,220,553,710 322,830,543,984 18975 Singapore 2000 123,687,486,916 136,481,169,314 2,202 Singapore 2001 134,356,655,335 137,996,493,066 2,202 Singapore 2002 145,044,188,998 146,004,673,355 2,202 Singapore 2003 158,149,395,798 155,743,434,595 2,202 Singapore 2004 174,730,149,108 174,668,444,979 2,202 Singapore 2005 193,944,721,053 193,557,422,532 2,202 Singapore 2006 213,856,237,726 216,710,982,166 2,202 Singapore 2007 235,183,252,991 242,527,326,420 2,202 Singapore 2008 253,353,169,524 251,586,369,120 2,202 Singapore 2009 269,084,196,603 251,528,083,469 2,202 Singapore 2010 289,834,511,747 292,200,605,711 2,202 Singapore 2011 313,968,385,569 313,313,946,048 2,202 Singapore 2012 336,220,553,710 322,996,319,687 2,202 United States 2000 123,687,486,916 10,289,700,000,000 13,346 United States 2001 134,356,655,335 10,625,300,000,000 13,346 United States 2002 145,044,188,998 10,980,200,000,000 13,346 United States 2003 158,149,395,798 11,512,200,000,000 13,346 United States 2004 174,730,149,108 12,277,000,000,000 13,346 United States 2005 193,944,721,053 13,095,400,000,000 13,346 United States 2006 213,856,237,726 13,857,900,000,000 13,346 United States 2007 235,183,252,991 14,480,300,000,000 13,346 United States 2008 253,353,169,524 14,720,300,000,000 13,346 United States 2009 269,084,196,603 14,417,900,000,000 13,346 United States 2010 289,834,511,747 14,958,300,000,000 13,346 United States 2011 313,968,385,569 15,533,800,000,000 13,346 United States 2012 336,220,553,710 16,244,600,000,000 13,346 Ph l c (ti p theo) B ng d li u c a bi n POPi POPj Country Year Erij BTAij-FTAij Australia 2000 77,630,900 19,153,000 8,809 Australia 2001 78,621,000 19,413,000 8,563 Australia 2002 79,538,700 19,651,400 9,259 Australia 2003 80,468,400 19,895,400 11,170 Australia 2004 81,437,700 20,127,400 12,213 Australia 2005 82,393,500 20,394,800 12,111 Australia 2006 83,313,000 20,697,900 11,613 Australia 2007 84,221,100 21,015,900 12,277 Australia 2008 85,122,300 21,384,400 10,559 Australia 2009 86,025,000 21,778,800 9,775 Australia 2010 86,932,500 22,065,300 11,846 Australia 2011 87,840,000 22,323,900 12,788 Australia 2012 88,775,500 22,683,600 12,159 Brunei Darussalam 2000 77,630,900 331,801 10,172 Brunei Darussalam 2001 78,621,000 339,114 10,277 Brunei Darussalam 2002 79,538,700 346,407 10,039 Brunei Darussalam 2003 80,468,400 353,649 10,177 Brunei Darussalam 2004 81,437,700 360,797 9,963 Brunei Darussalam 2005 82,393,500 367,815 9,528 Brunei Darussalam 2006 83,313,000 374,697 9,389 Brunei Darussalam 2007 84,221,100 381,440 9,292 Brunei Darussalam 2008 85,122,300 388,017 8,294 Brunei Darussalam 2009 86,025,000 394,400 7,983 Brunei Darussalam 2010 86,932,500 400,569 8,563 Brunei Darussalam 2011 87,840,000 406,512 8,792 Brunei Darussalam 2012 88,775,500 412,238 8,277 Canada 2000 77,630,900 30,769,700 10,590 Canada 2001 78,621,000 31,081,900 10,868 Canada 2002 79,538,700 31,362,000 10,961 Canada 2003 80,468,400 31,676,000 12,407 Canada 2004 81,437,700 31,995,000 12,821 Canada 2005 82,393,500 32,312,000 13,087 Canada 2006 83,313,000 32,576,074 13,393 Canada 2007 84,221,100 32,927,517 13,432 Canada 2008 85,122,300 33,317,662 11,380 Canada 2009 86,025,000 33,726,915 10,418 Canada 2010 86,932,500 34,126,547 11,788 Canada 2011 87,840,000 34,483,975 11,726 Canada 2012 88,775,500 34,880,491 10,974 Chile 2000 77,630,900 15,454,402 25 Chile 2001 78,621,000 15,639,289 23 Chile 2002 79,538,700 15,819,522 23 Chile 2003 80,468,400 15,995,658 23 Chile 2004 81,437,700 16,168,241 27 Chile 2005 82,393,500 16,337,749 28 Chile 2006 83,313,000 16,504,530 37 Chile 2007 84,221,100 16,668,892 37 Chile 2008 85,122,300 16,831,184 30 Chile 2009 86,025,000 16,991,729 29 Chile 2010 86,932,500 17,150,760 34 Chile 2011 87,840,000 17,308,449 35 Chile 2012 88,775,500 17,464,814 33 Japan 2000 77,630,900 126,870,000 167 Japan 2001 78,621,000 127,149,000 154 Japan 2002 79,538,700 127,445,000 148 Japan 2003 80,468,400 127,718,000 157 Japan 2004 81,437,700 127,761,000 158 Japan 2005 82,393,500 127,773,000 144 Japan 2006 83,313,000 127,756,000 128 Japan 2007 84,221,100 127,770,750 118 Japan 2008 85,122,300 127,704,040 112 Japan 2009 86,025,000 127,557,958 119 Japan 2010 86,932,500 127,450,459 127 Japan 2011 87,840,000 127,817,277 129 Japan 2012 88,775,500 127,561,489 120 Malaysia 2000 77,630,900 23,420,751 4,259 Malaysia 2001 78,621,000 23,925,742 4,509 Malaysia 2002 79,538,700 24,413,795 4,588 Malaysia 2003 80,468,400 24,890,654 4,556 Malaysia 2004 81,437,700 25,365,089 4,358 Malaysia 2005 82,393,500 25,843,466 4,188 Malaysia 2006 83,313,000 26,327,098 4,207 Malaysia 2007 84,221,100 26,813,819 4,258 Malaysia 2008 85,122,300 27,302,348 3,804 Malaysia 2009 86,025,000 27,790,324 3,541 Malaysia 2010 86,932,500 28,275,835 3,949 Malaysia 2011 87,840,000 28,758,968 3,983 Malaysia 2012 88,775,500 29,239,927 3,734 Mexico 2000 77,630,900 103,873,607 1,467 Mexico 2001 78,621,000 105,339,877 1,649 Mexico 2002 79,538,700 106,723,661 1,675 Mexico 2003 80,468,400 108,056,312 1,541 Mexico 2004 81,437,700 109,381,550 1,453 Mexico 2005 82,393,500 110,731,826 1,455 Mexico 2006 83,313,000 112,116,694 1,416 Mexico 2007 84,221,100 113,529,819 1,365 Mexico 2008 85,122,300 114,968,039 1,159 Mexico 2009 86,025,000 116,422,752 982 Mexico 2010 86,932,500 117,886,404 1,097 Mexico 2011 87,840,000 119,361,233 1,071 Mexico 2012 88,775,500 120,847,477 979 New Zealand 2000 77,630,900 3,857,700 7,145 New Zealand 2001 78,621,000 3,880,500 7,075 New Zealand 2002 79,538,700 3,948,500 7,986 New Zealand 2003 80,468,400 4,027,200 9,971 New Zealand 2004 81,437,700 4,087,500 10,968 New Zealand 2005 82,393,500 4,133,900 11,166 New Zealand 2006 83,313,000 4,184,600 9,984 New Zealand 2007 84,221,100 4,228,300 10,769 New Zealand 2008 85,122,300 4,268,900 8,804 New Zealand 2009 86,025,000 4,315,800 7,812 New Zealand 2010 86,932,500 4,367,800 9,236 New Zealand 2011 87,840,000 4,405,200 9,819 New Zealand 2012 88,775,500 4,433,100 9,457 Peru 2000 77,630,900 26,000,080 176 Peru 2001 78,621,000 26,372,358 184 Peru 2002 79,538,700 26,729,909 184 Peru 2003 80,468,400 27,073,334 181 Peru 2004 81,437,700 27,403,845 171 Peru 2005 82,393,500 27,723,281 159 Peru 2006 83,313,000 28,030,688 149 Peru 2007 84,221,100 28,328,410 138 Peru 2008 85,122,300 28,625,628 114 Peru 2009 86,025,000 28,934,303 111 Peru 2010 86,932,500 29,262,830 112 Peru 2011 87,840,000 29,614,887 104 Peru 2012 88,775,500 29,987,800 96 Singapore 2000 77,630,900 4,027,900 9,913 Singapore 2001 78,621,000 4,138,000 10,055 Singapore 2002 79,538,700 4,176,000 10,016 Singapore 2003 80,468,400 4,114,800 10,174 Singapore 2004 81,437,700 4,166,700 10,045 Singapore 2005 82,393,500 4,265,800 9,528 Singapore 2006 83,313,000 4,401,400 9,469 Singapore 2007 84,221,100 4,588,600 9,476 Singapore 2008 85,122,300 4,839,400 8,840 Singapore 2009 86,025,000 4,987,600 8,459 Singapore 2010 86,932,500 5,076,700 9,294 Singapore 2011 87,840,000 5,183,700 9,847 Singapore 2012 88,775,500 5,312,400 9,643 United States 2000 77,630,900 282,162,411 15,555 United States 2001 78,621,000 284,968,955 16,696 United States 2002 79,538,700 287,625,193 16,950 United States 2003 80,468,400 290,107,933 17,047 United States 2004 81,437,700 292,805,298 16,491 United States 2005 82,393,500 295,516,599 15,859 United States 2006 83,313,000 298,379,912 15,375 United States 2007 84,221,100 301,231,207 14,702 United States 2008 85,122,300 304,093,966 12,552 United States 2009 86,025,000 306,771,529 12,230 United States 2010 86,932,500 309,326,225 12,454 United States 2011 87,840,000 311,587,816 11,929 United States 2012 88,775,500 313,914,040 11,334 ... n l c nhân t s n xu mơ hình Heckscher D Ohlin lý thuy t v mơ hình tr ng l c, m t cách t ng quát, nhân t n các nhân t u vào i qu c t n cung, nhóm nhân t nhân t h p d n hay c n tr c x p vào ba... lý xu t kh u Các nhân t nh n cung Kho ng cách gi a c Các nhân t h p d n hay c n tr Các nhân t nh (Ngu n: T Chính sách khuy n khích qu n lý nh p kh u S c mua c a th c nh p kh u Các nhân t nh nc... hai qu c gia TPP H3: Kho H4: Dân s c a lý h n ch i hàng hóa gi a Vi t Nam qu c c nh p kh i hàng hóa gi a Vi t Nam ng chi c TPP H5: Dân s c a Vi t Nam có hóa gi a Vi H6 n dòng i hàng c TPP ng n