Các nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến lợi nhuận của các Ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam Luận văn thạc sĩ Đại học Kinh tế TP.HCM, 2014

B TR NG GIÁO D VÀ ÀO T O H C KINH T TP H L V NT TP C CHÍ MINH KINH T Chí Minh N m 2014 *** *** Chuyên ngành: Tài Ngân hàng Mã : 60340201 IH NG D TS TP H Chí Minh N m 2014 KHOA H C: L Tôi xin cam c u khoa h cơng trình nghiên c u k t qu c a trình nghiên c l p nghiêm túc c riêng d i s h ng d n c a TS Lê Các thông tin d li u lu n trích d y c thu th p t website có uy tín K t qu nghiên c u c b t k cơng trình nghiên c u tr tài nà ch a ây Lê c công b M CL C : 10 10 10 11 15 16 K T LU 18 19 19 19 20 21 gian qua 23 24 25 25 27 31 31 32 32 32 37 37 40 42 44 46 K T LU 50 51 NAM 51 51 52 52 52 52 55 58 59 60 60 61 62 K T LU 64 K T LU N 65 TÀI LI U THAM KH O PH L C DANH M C B NG, BI U -2013 -2013 -2013 -2013 -2013 -2013 -2013 DANH M C T CAGR: Compounded Annual Growth rate MB: Ngân Vietcombank VI T T T L IM U - h h , , làm n ài nhân , nhân các doanh ngân lý C - N Nam - Ngân hàng - ay, thu giai 8-2013, - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng Á Châu (ACB) Kosmidou, K (2008) The De Period of EU Financial Intergration Managerial Finance, No.34, Pages 146159 Molyneux, P and J Thornton (1992) Determinants Of European Bank Profitability: A Note Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol.16, pages 11731178 10 Panayiotis P Athanasoglou, Sophocles N.Brissimis, Matthaios D.Delis (2005) Bank-Specific, Industry-Specific And Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Vol 18, Pages 121-136 11 Panayiotis P Athanasoglou , Matthaios D.Delis, Christos K Staikouras (2006) Determinants of Bank Profitability In The South Eastern European Region Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No.10274, pages 1-32 12 Pasiouras, F., & Kosmidou, K (2007) Factor influencing the profitability of domestic and foreign comercial banks in the European Union Research in International Business and Finance , No.21, Pages 222-237 13 Perry, P (1992) Do banks gain or lose from inflation Journal of Retail Banking, 14(2), pp 25 40 14 Samy Ben Naceur and Mohammed Omran (2008) The Effect Of Bank Profitability Economic Research Forum (ERF), No.449 15 Samy Ben Naceur & Mohamed Goaied (2008) The Determinants Of Commercial Bank Interest Margin And Profitability: Evidence from Tunisia Frontiers in Finance and Economics, Vol.5, No.1, pages 106-130 16 Samy Ben Naceur & Mohamed Goaied (2001) The Determinants Of The ce Applied Financial Economics, Vol.11, No.3, pages 317-319 Tài li u khác Các website tham kh o: http://www.worldbank.org/ http://vietcombank.com.vn/ https://www.vietinbank.vn/web/home/vn/index.html http://bidv.com.vn/ http://eximbank.com.vn/home/ https://www.techcombank.com.vn/trang-chu http://www.acb.com.vn/ https://www.mbbank.com.vn/Pages/Default.aspx http://www.sacombank.com.vn/Pages/default.aspx http://www.sbv.gov.vn/portal/faces/vi/vim/vipages_trangchu PH L C Ngân hàng lãi vay VCB 2008 2,536,554 221,950,448 13,790,042 108,528,764 157,067,019 6,622,636 2,278,880 VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB CTG 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008 3,944,753 4,235,792 4,217,332 4,427,206 4,377,582 1,804,464 255,495,883 307,496,090 366,722,279 414,475,073 468,994,032 193,590,357 16,710,333 20,669,479 28,638,696 41,553,063 42,386,065 12,336,159 136,996,006 171,124,824 204,089,479 235,869,977 267,863,404 118,601,677 169,071,562 204,755,949 227,016,854 284,414,568 332,245,598 121,634,466 6,498,666 8,188,413 12,421,680 10,954,093 10,782,402 7,189,431 2,788,138 3,336,393 2,449,091 4,154,404 4,724,952 1,504,822 CTG CTG CTG CTG CTG BID 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008 2,873,618 3,414,347 6,259,367 6,169,679 5,807,978 1,979,392 243,785,208 367,712,191 460,603,925 503,530,259 576,368,416 246,494,323 12,572,078 18,170,363 28,490,896 33,624,531 54,074,066 13,466,100 161,619,376 231,434,907 290,397,810 329,682,838 372,988,742 156,870,045 148,530,242 205,918,705 257,273,708 289,105,307 364,497,001 163,396,947 7,932,263 12,089,002 20,048,054 18,420,024 18,277,255 6,243,550 1,748,086 2,730,400 2,326,127 3,541,503 3,506,444 2,133,948 BID BID BID BID BID TCB 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008 2,817,501 3,760,715 3,199,608 2,971,513 4,051,008 1,183,083 296,432,087 366,267,769 405,755,454 484,784,560 548,386,083 59,098,962 17,639,330 24,219,730 24,390,455 26,494,446 32,039,983 5,625,408 200,999,434 248,898,483 288,079,640 334,009,142 384,889,836 26,018,985 187,280,394 244,700,635 240,507,629 303,059,537 338,902,132 39,617,723 6,974,392 9,191,386 12,638,956 13,207,578 13,950,122 1,760,743 3,179,573 2,296,413 2,775,522 3,403,637 5,259,175 1,377,330 TCB TCB TCB TCB TCB ACB 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008 1,700,169 2,072,755 3,153,766 765,686 659,071 2,210,682 92,581,504 150,291,215 180,531,163 179,933,598 158,896,663 105,306,130 7,323,826 9,389,161 12,515,802 13,289,576 13,920,069 7,766,468 41,580,370 52,316,862 62,562,406 67,136,307 69,088,680 34,604,077 62,347,400 80,550,753 88,647,779 111,462,288 119,977,924 64,216,949 2,499,820 3,184,349 5,298,375 5,115,573 4,335,662 2,728,257 1,418,334 1,534,672 1,363,800 645,805 1,312,174 1,511,219 ACB ACB ACB ACB ACB EIB 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008 2,201,204 2,334,794 3,207,841 784,040 826,493 711,014 167,881,047 205,102,950 281,019,319 176,307,607 166,598,989 48,247,821 10,106,287 11,376,757 11,959,092 12,624,452 12,504,202 12,844,077 61,855,984 86,478,408 101,822,720 101,312,766 105,642,038 20,855,907 86,919,196 106,936,611 142,218,091 125,233,595 138,110,836 30,877,730 2,800,528 4,163,770 6,607,558 6,870,928 4,386,413 1,319,712 2,134,542 1,325,908 1,038,977 -1,036,200 1,263,174 572,335 EIB EIB EIB EIB EIB STB 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008 1,132,463 1,814,639 3,038,864 2,138,655 658,706 954,753 65,448,356 131,110,882 183,567,032 170,156,010 169,835,460 68,438,569 13,353,319 13,510,740 16,302,520 15,812,205 14,680,317 7,758,624 38,003,086 61,717,617 74,044,518 74,315,952 82,643,274 34,757,119 38,766,465 58,150,665 53,652,639 70,458,310 79,472,411 46,128,820 1,975,308 2,882,935 5,303,626 4,901,459 2,736,344 1,146,668 601,427 786,685 933,481 485,802 512,518 1,307,291 Ngân hàng lãi vay STB STB STB STB 2009 2010 2011 2012 1,670,559 1,798,560 2,033,185 1,002,370 104,019,144 141,798,738 140,136,974 152,118,525 10,546,760 13,633,109 14,224,098 13,698,739 59,141,487 76,617,039 77,669,353 94,887,813 60,516,273 78,858,295 74,799,927 107,458,698 2,302,935 3,209,790 5,495,648 6,497,179 1,793,192 1,403,283 1,015,373 356,173 STB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB 2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2,229,106 696,205 1,173,727 1,745,166 1,915,336 2,320,036 161,377,613 44,346,106 69,008,288 109,623,197 138,831,492 175,609,964 17,063,718 4,424,064 6,888,072 8,882,344 9,642,143 12,863,906 109,214,229 15,493,509 29,140,759 48,058,250 57,952,296 73,165,823 131,644,622 27,162,881 39,978,447 65,740,838 89,548,673 117,747,416 6,687,437 1,420,712 1,838,068 3,519,103 5,222,398 6,664,372 973,870 217,372 815,443 569,096 -75,268 1,148,999 MBB 2013 2,285,716 180,381,064 15,148,182 85,972,767 136,088,812 6,124,371 1,536,115 Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Equation: Untitled Test cross-section fixed effects Effects Test Statistic Cross-section F Cross-section Chi-square d.f Prob 2.556633 (7,32) 0.0328 21.322251 0.0033 Cross-section fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: ROE Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/15/14 Time: 21:14 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Ta có: 1: p- dùng Fixed Effect - Dependent Variable: ROA Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:08 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 0.042821 0.028065 1.525802 0.1369 AS -0.002197 0.001334 -1.647373 0.1093 CA 0.008036 0.017022 0.472102 0.6401 LA -0.017566 0.011811 -1.487266 0.1467 DP -0.017141 0.007590 -2.258419 0.0309 NIM 0.461471 0.099052 4.658896 0.0001 NII 0.737930 0.115567 6.385296 0.0000 GDP 0.227307 0.094340 2.409450 0.0219 INF -0.018991 0.009489 -2.001328 0.0539 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.798090 Mean dependent var 0.012017 Adjusted R-squared 0.703445 S.D dependent var 0.004220 S.E of regression 0.002298 Akaike info criterion -9.052483 Sum squared resid 0.000169 Schwarz criterion -8.428750 Log likelihood 233.2596 Hannan-Quinn criter -8.816774 F-statistic 8.432448 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 2.374818 E Dependent Variable: ROE Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:14 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 0.582505 0.409871 1.421191 0.1649 AS -0.025499 0.019475 -1.309287 0.1998 CA -0.786676 0.248599 -3.164436 0.0034 LA -0.499043 0.172492 -2.893132 0.0068 DP -0.116699 0.110843 -1.052834 0.3003 NIM 6.227871 1.446589 4.305212 0.0001 NII 8.599735 1.687787 5.095272 0.0000 GDP 4.330837 1.377777 3.143351 0.0036 INF -0.337520 0.138587 -2.435431 0.0206 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.789089 Mean dependent var 0.155555 Adjusted R-squared 0.690224 S.D dependent var 0.060295 S.E of regression 0.033559 Akaike info criterion -3.689838 Sum squared resid 0.036038 Schwarz criterion -3.066104 Log likelihood 104.5561 Hannan-Quinn criter -3.454128 F-statistic 7.981501 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001 2.477594 Dependent Variable: AS Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:44 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 20.27345 0.983340 20.61692 0.0000 CA -3.271355 2.147868 -1.523071 0.1373 LA -0.932342 1.533239 -0.608087 0.5473 DP -0.668618 0.983900 -0.679559 0.5015 NIM 12.14294 12.75624 0.951922 0.3481 NII -29.34371 14.19501 -2.067185 0.0466 GDP 3.546451 12.29964 0.288338 0.7749 INF -3.020322 1.121636 -2.692783 0.0110 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.850318 Mean dependent var 19.04792 Adjusted R-squared 0.786816 S.D dependent var 0.649663 S.E of regression 0.299961 Akaike info criterion 0.679980 Sum squared resid 2.969235 Schwarz criterion 1.264731 Hannan-Quinn criter 0.900958 Durbin-Watson stat 1.129365 Log likelihood -1.319531 F-statistic 13.39049 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Dependent Variable: CA Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:46 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 0.336643 0.280959 1.198194 0.2394 AS -0.020077 0.013182 -1.523071 0.1373 LA -0.098084 0.119572 -0.820288 0.4179 DP 0.184837 0.070633 2.616884 0.0133 NIM 1.044284 0.996506 1.047946 0.3023 NII 1.524460 1.151667 1.323699 0.1947 GDP 0.529642 0.960351 0.551509 0.5850 INF -0.047054 0.096697 -0.486612 0.6297 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.716445 Mean dependent var 0.083484 Adjusted R-squared 0.596149 S.D dependent var 0.036978 S.E of regression 0.023499 Akaike info criterion -4.413413 Sum squared resid 0.018223 Schwarz criterion -3.828663 Log likelihood 120.9219 Hannan-Quinn criter -4.192435 F-statistic 5.955678 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000013 0.764172 Dependent Variable: LA Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:47 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 0.349395 0.409142 0.853970 0.3993 AS -0.011885 0.019545 -0.608087 0.5473 CA -0.203731 0.248365 -0.820288 0.4179 DP 0.389915 0.088916 4.385221 0.0001 NIM 4.260922 1.257416 3.388632 0.0018 NII 1.027453 1.693883 0.606567 0.5483 GDP 1.919778 1.349681 1.422394 0.1643 INF -0.521071 0.106459 -4.894594 0.0000 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.938056 Mean dependent var 0.522812 Adjusted R-squared 0.911777 S.D dependent var 0.114022 S.E of regression 0.033867 Akaike info criterion -3.682435 Sum squared resid 0.037850 Schwarz criterion -3.097685 Log likelihood 103.3784 Hannan-Quinn criter -3.461457 F-statistic 35.69572 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 1.458458 Dependent Variable: DP Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:49 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 0.756732 0.630073 1.201022 0.2383 AS -0.020641 0.030374 -0.679559 0.5015 CA 0.929761 0.355293 2.616884 0.0133 LA 0.944260 0.215328 4.385221 0.0001 NIM -1.596110 2.254794 -0.707874 0.4840 NII -1.726729 2.633548 -0.655666 0.5166 GDP -5.185610 1.966489 -2.636989 0.0127 INF 0.286037 0.211878 1.350013 0.1862 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.800327 Mean dependent var 0.613114 Adjusted R-squared 0.715617 S.D dependent var 0.098830 S.E of regression 0.052704 Akaike info criterion -2.797962 Sum squared resid 0.091663 Schwarz criterion -2.213212 Log likelihood 82.15108 Hannan-Quinn criter -2.576984 F-statistic 9.447852 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 1.955265 Dependent Variable: NIM Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:50 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C -0.031516 0.049016 -0.642970 0.5247 AS 0.002201 0.002312 0.951922 0.3481 CA 0.030841 0.029430 1.047946 0.3023 LA 0.060583 0.017878 3.388632 0.0018 DP -0.009371 0.013238 -0.707874 0.4840 NII -0.603634 0.173807 -3.473006 0.0015 GDP -0.211178 0.161670 -1.306224 0.2005 INF 0.057656 0.013319 4.328876 0.0001 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.741778 Mean dependent var 0.028971 Adjusted R-squared 0.632229 S.D dependent var 0.006659 S.E of regression 0.004038 Akaike info criterion -7.935657 Sum squared resid 0.000538 Schwarz criterion -7.350906 Log likelihood 205.4558 Hannan-Quinn criter -7.714679 F-statistic 6.771201 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000003 1.239725 Dependent Variable: NII Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:53 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 0.097708 0.038701 2.524667 0.0166 AS -0.003907 0.001890 -2.067185 0.0466 CA 0.033074 0.024986 1.323699 0.1947 LA 0.010732 0.017692 0.606567 0.5483 DP -0.007447 0.011359 -0.655666 0.5166 NIM -0.443434 0.127680 -3.473006 0.0015 GDP -0.132900 0.140208 -0.947877 0.3501 INF 0.012379 0.014130 0.876078 0.3873 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.635787 Mean dependent var 0.008165 Adjusted R-squared 0.481272 S.D dependent var 0.004806 S.E of regression 0.003461 Akaike info criterion -8.244077 Sum squared resid 0.000395 Schwarz criterion -7.659326 Log likelihood 212.8578 Hannan-Quinn criter -8.023099 F-statistic 4.114736 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000409 1.384475 Dependent Variable: GDP Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:53 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 0.050819 0.051025 0.995970 0.3265 AS 0.000709 0.002458 0.288338 0.7749 CA 0.017243 0.031266 0.551509 0.5850 LA 0.030091 0.021155 1.422394 0.1643 DP -0.033563 0.012728 -2.636989 0.0127 NIM -0.232799 0.178222 -1.306224 0.2005 NII -0.199435 0.210401 -0.947877 0.3501 INF 0.037793 0.016227 2.328982 0.0261 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.365259 Mean dependent var 0.057167 Adjusted R-squared 0.095975 S.D dependent var 0.004459 S.E of regression 0.004240 Akaike info criterion -7.838183 Sum squared resid 0.000593 Schwarz criterion -7.253433 Log likelihood 203.1164 Hannan-Quinn criter -7.617205 F-statistic 1.356409 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.229028 2.216405 Dependent Variable: INF Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 8/15/14 Time: 21:55 Sample: 2008 2013 Periods included: Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C 1.170569 0.472790 2.475874 0.0186 AS -0.059645 0.022150 -2.692783 0.0110 CA -0.151408 0.311147 -0.486612 0.6297 LA -0.807214 0.164920 -4.894594 0.0000 DP 0.182975 0.135536 1.350013 0.1862 NIM 6.281835 1.451147 4.328876 0.0001 NII 1.836060 2.095773 0.876078 0.3873 GDP 3.735244 1.603810 2.328982 0.0261 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.693218 Mean dependent var 0.122500 Adjusted R-squared 0.563068 S.D dependent var 0.063770 S.E of regression 0.042153 Akaike info criterion -3.244733 Sum squared resid 0.058636 Schwarz criterion -2.659983 Log likelihood 92.87359 Hannan-Quinn criter -3.023755 F-statistic 5.326303 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0.000039 1.994535 ... Ngân Vietcombank VI T T T L IM U - h h , , làm n ài nhân , nhân các doanh ngân lý C - N Nam - Ngân hàng - ay, thu giai 8-2013, - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân hàng - Ngân. .. lý ngân hàng mà nhân 1.3.2.1 Các nhân Quy mô ngân hàng Quy mô ngân hàng : nghiên 2010; 199 5các ngân hàng hil Molyneux John Wilson (2004) ; Panayiotis P.Athanasoglou, 1985 Nh khác 12 ngân hàng. .. T LU N ch c nhân ph vào 19 PHÂN TÍCH CÁC NHÂN T N L I NHU N C A I VI T NAM 2.1 1954 1975 1985 ngân hàn 20 Nam +H hàng 2.2 , Ngân hàng TMCP C 21 Á Châu (ACB), Ngân hàng TMCP Ngân hàng TMCP Sài