Tiểu luận môn tài chính tiền tệ Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi

Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS. Trương Minh Tuấn  TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ THÀNH PHỐ HỒ CHÍ MINH KHOA TÀI CHÍNH NHÀ NƯỚC     Tài chính Tiền tệ Đề tài: LÝ THUYẾT VỀ BỘ BA BẤT KHẢ THI Giảng viên hướng dẫn : ThS. Trương Minh Tuấn Nhóm sinh viên thực hiện : Nhóm 05 Lớp : VB16BQT01 Khoá : 16B Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh Tháng 03 năm 2014 Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 1 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS. 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Trương Minh Tuấn NHẬN XÉT CỦA GIẢNG VIÊN Nhận xét Điểm Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 3 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS. Trương Minh Tuấn MỤC LỤC Chương 1. 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Trương Minh Tuấn R Rw%9d'(/%c'fRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR" R"Rw%9d-%)''('(/'9<6RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR"# Chương 3: Kết luậnRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Lxy?m5B?zRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR" Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 5 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS. Trương Minh Tuấn CHƯƠNG 1. GIỚI THIỆU CHUNG VỀ BỘ BA BẤT KHẢ THI )/S9g/4]('53]U9,*j]0*%6U{*V6W'%CX'42464Y'Z%['%R p6'(M%|W'9h*V6'(/')*-%}+'X~%a%S)*%'0Z%/)`0'J 'c39d*)**%XU2'e)•l ;n.B(6l ;E;n`0_(6Z]l ;;;nUv-%)''( '%0%~%\%4Y'Z%['%•RTheo lý thuyết này, một quốc gia không thể đồng thời đạt được cả ba mục tiêu: chính sách tiền tệ độc lập, tỷ giá cố định, và tự do hoá dòng vốn. 1. Lịch sử ra đời của lý thuyết bộ ba bất khả thi: 1.1. Mô hình Mundell – Fleming và các hàm ý về chính sách tài khóa, chính sách tiền tệ dưới các chế độ tỷ giá: 5%\%53]€_]0Sph(2*V6J'[W'%CX'€L5Z%*b 'a%UX')*U2*V6*)*O'%6%'/)ROCU9,*j]0UZ%hU=*%/W '%CX'42464Y'Z%['%R5%\%53]€_]*%1(6Sp%c•[%6CZ% %c•[*V6*%a%S)*%'J'c`0*%a%S)*%'0Z%/)39d*)**%XU2'e)Z%)* %6R 1.1.1. 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Chính sách tài khoá và chính sách tiền tệ dưới chế độ tỷ giá linh hoạt: )*%0W*V6*%a%S)*%'J'c`0*%a%S)*%'0Z%/)39d*%XU2'e)% %/f'*b'%U9,*%\%3'(/Hình 1.2R[UG%*%'64‚'U='frƒl(‰.i‰n€ -%=6/%6*V6U9:*/.L5.$Š`0[UG%*b2'Sph(2*%a% S)*%'J'c'„L5S6L5…RBX'•[.*%'63G*%*%C'„rUX_.02'*)*O '%6%'/)'%O%&'RfU_.*b2'*='%F39`J/f'c`0*'%F39`J 2'c'(M'%G'(9:/f%8R9d*<*%X'e)%%/f'.'e)'%p*S†[.3/Ub U9:$3G*%*%CS6-%['%0%$…`03G*%*%CS6-%['%0%….'f/ M2'U*O4HS[9,d‹*6/%<i‰‹R%'6*bU9,*Sp*O4H 4M'(/`04M/0Z%*bSp6/%6*V646U9:….L5…`0$…R/Ub. 39d*%XU2'e)%%/f'.*%a%S)*%'J'c'Œ(6Z%)%c•[U6'QS[ 9,R I9,*f.Sp%c•[*V6*%a%S)*%'0Z%/)39d*<*%X'e)%%/f'0 Z%(>(0R(/Hình 1.2.4‚'U='fUr.[UG%*b2'*%a%S)*%'0Z%/) h(20*%/U9:*/3G*%*%CUX……'fURC%M.'fU .*%'6*b2'*)*O'%6%'/)'%F39`03/Ub*b2'Sp6'Q'(/'e )'%p*RJ0CS†0*%/U9:$3G*%*%CM'(M'%0%$……`0……3G*% *%C9,*f'%0%…R6*b2'U*O4HdB.0Sp6/%6*V6 U9:….L5`0$……RI%9`C.'(/UJZc'9<U8.2'*%a%S)*%'0Z%/) h(239d*%XU2'e)%%/f'0a'%c•[%<39d*%XU2'e)*8UG%R Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 8 m €BS/)'`8%/0'/0 m"€%[+%/0'/0 m^LM%'J'c LO*%C3q`86'Q %a%S)*%'J'cU2*- 1)+UG% Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS. 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Trương Minh Tuấn *`dvSY'9d*/0R„%|%UG%'(M.*)*%0Z%'X%9B(6 l ;E;n`0_(6Z]l ;;;nUvh(2%\%53]€_]'%0%~%\%4Y' Z%['%•R8%9'(/Hình 1.3._(6Z]l ;;;n*%/(H.2'•8*6-%['„4Œ 2''(/46&*'M*%a%S)*%'J'cU2* Sp+UG%*V6*%a%S)*%'e).`0 %2%-'%G'(9:'0*%a%R)*230CU9,*'b'‚''(/Bảng 1.1. Dòng vốn lưu động hoàn toàn Chính sách tiền tệ độc lập Hệ thống tỷ giá cố định Ví dụ BS/)'`8 B% b b (78*'(9d**2**[ *)*%'%)E•"!!# LM%'J'c b B% b ?/B/.ry e)'%[+ b b B% I%'.Ž* Bảng 1.1. 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Chính sách tiền tệ độc lập giới hạn ∩ Tỷ giá thả nổi giới hạn Không có khả năng vay mượn ∩ Dòng vốn lưu động có giới hạn ∩ Chính sách tiền tệ độc lập giới hạn ∩ Tỷ giá cố định Bảng 1.3 Sự lựa chọn cơ chế tỷ giá theo thuyết tứ diện 2.Khái niệm chung về bộ ba bất khả thi: 2.1 Chính sách tiền tệ độc lập: Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 18 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS Trương Minh Tuấn Chính sách tiền. .. toàn Mục tiêu chính sách tiền tệ độc lập và hội nhập tài chính hoàn toàn có thể khả thi với đỉnh thả nỗi hoàn toàn Cuối cùng, mục tiêu tỷ giá ổn định và hội nhập tài chính đạt được bởi đỉnh liên minh tiền tệ Hoàn toàn không khả thi để đạt được đồng thời cả ba mục tiêu Kiểm soát vốn Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 22 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS Trương Minh Tuấn Chính sách tiền tệ độc lập Tỷ giá... DỤNG BỘ BA BẤT KHẢ THI 1 Bộ ba bất khả thi ở các nước: 1.1 Bộ ba bất khả thi ở Châu Âu: Với đặc trưng là lựa chọn sử dụng đồng tiền Euro thay cho đồng Franc của Pháp, Mác của Nga, Lira của Italia… nhờ đó các nước Châu Âu đã loại bỏ những biến động tỷ giá hối đoái trong khu vực Chính vì vậy, các nước Châu Âu đã lựa chọn ổn định tỷ giá hối đoái và tự do hóa dòng vốn khi ứng dụng mô hình bộ ba bất khả thi. .. tư về tính minh bạch trong điều hành Nhiều cán bộ quản lý đã phát biểu không thống nhất với nhau gây nên nhầm tưởng Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 28 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS Trương Minh Tuấn Việt Nam đang cố gắng theo đuổi một bộ ba bất khả thi khi khăng khăng “tự do hóa tài chính, không có bất kì hạn chế nào” Nhưng với những gì diễn ra, lạm phát ở Việt Nam chủ yếu là do chính sách tiền tệ. .. lập của chính sách tiền tệ ∩ Tỷ giá cố định Dòng vốn lưu động hoàn toàn ∩ Chính sách tiền tệ độc lập giới hạn ∩ Tỷ giá thả nổi có giới hạn Kiểm soát vốn Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 0 < Kc < 1 - - - 12 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi Ev = 0 GVHD: ThS Trương Minh Tuấn hoàn toàn ∩ Chính sách tiền tệ độc lập hoàn toàn ∩ Tỷ giá cố định Ms = 0 0 < Ev < 1 Dòng vốn lưu động có giới hạn ∩ Chính sách tiền tệ hoàn... xuất đo lường hội nhập tài chính trên thực tế bằng tỷ lệ tổng nợ và tài sản nước ngoài trong cán cân thanh toán Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 21 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS Trương Minh Tuấn - Aizenman, J., M.D Chinn, và H Ito (2008) phát triển một tập hợp gồm nhiều chỉsố(index) của l thuyết bộ3 bất kh thi để đo lường mức độcủa mỗi 1 trong 3 lựa chọn chính sách đãđược thực thi trong các nền kinh... Chính sách tiền tệ độc lập Tỷ giá ổn định Thả nỗi hoàn toàn Liên minh tiền tệ Hội nhập tài chính hoàn toàn Tam giác bộ ba bất khả thi Nguyên lý của bộ ba bất khả thi: Dòng vốn Chính lưu động sách tiền hoàn toàn tệ độc lập Hệ thống tỷ giá cố định Ví dụ Kiểm soát vốn Không Có Có Trung Quốc trước cuộc cải cách tháng 7/2005 Liên minh tiền tệ Có không Có Hồng Kong, EU Tỷ giá thả nổi có có Không Nhật, Úc Dựa... nào hỗ trợ những nhà hoạch định trong việc ra quyết định chính sách Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 35 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS Trương Minh Tuấn TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO 1 Giáo trình Nhập môn Tài chính – Tiền tệ, Chủ biên PGS.TS Sử Đình Thành – PGS.TS Vũ Thị Minh Hằng (xuất bản năm 2008) 2 Tài liệu từ các trang web 3 Một số tài liệu tham khảo khác trên mạng Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 36 ... mẫu hình bộ ba bất khả thi thích hợp sẽ hỗ trợ cho đất nước đạt Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 34 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi GVHD: ThS Trương Minh Tuấn được mục tiêu điều hành vĩ mô đã đặt ra, ngược lại sẽ dễ dàng đưa quốc gia đó đến khủng hoảng Trong xu hướng hội nhập tài chính của thế giới ngày nay, đối với những đất nước đang phát triển, hệ thống tài chính yếu kém như Việt Nam, lựa chọn chính sách... nhập tài chính xét tại điểm A thực hiện chính sách mở rộng tiền tệ đường LM dịch chuyển đến LM 1 LM 1 cắt IS tại B lúc này tại B có r thấp, xuất khẩu ròng giảm (NX ) làm tỷ giá biến đổi, nhà nước phải bù đắp khoản ngoại tệ này bằng cách bơm ngoại tệ vào thị trường=> làm LM 1 dịch chuyển đến LM => chính sách tiền tệ vô tác dụng Tỷ giá cố định Lớp: VB16BQT01 - Nhóm 05 25 Lý thuyết về bộ ba bất khả thi . chọn cơ chế tỷ giá theo thuyết tứ diện 2.Khái niệm chung về bộ ba bất khả thi: 2.1. 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