Giáo trình kinh tế vĩ mô ts đặng danh lợi (chủ biên)

BQ GIAO DUG VA DAO TAO TRUONG DAI HOC CU1U LONG Chii bien: TS DANG DANH LOI • • GIAO TRINH KINH TE VI MO Tham gia bien soan TS Dang Danh Loi Th.S Le Thi H6ng Ha Ninh Long, thdng ndm 2020 MUC LUC • • CHUONG TONG QUAN NHUNG VAN DE CO BAN VE KIND TE HOC VA KINH TE HOC VI MO 1.1 KINH TE HOC VA CAC BO PHAN CAU THANH CUA KINH TE HOC 1.1.1 Khai niem kinh te hoc 1.1.2 Cac bo phan cau kinh te hoc 1.1.3 Dac tnmg cua kinh hoc 1.1.4 Phirong phap nghien ctru cua kinh te hoc 1.1.5 To chuc kinh te cua mot nen kinh te hon hop 1.5.1.1 Ba chuc nang co ban cua mot n£n kinh t£ thi trubng 1.5.1.2 He thong to chuc cua nen kinh te hon hop 1.1.6 Mot so khai niem co ban cua kinh te hoc 15 f r r > 1.1.6.1 Cac yeu to san xuat, gioi han kha nang san xuat va chi phi cohpi 15 1.1.6.2 Quy luat thu nhap giam dan va quy luat chi phi f tuong doi cang tang 20 1.2 KHAI QUAT VE KINH TE HOC VI MO 24 f f 1.2.1 Doi tuong va phuong phap nghien cuu cua kinh te hoc vi mo 24 1.2.1.1 Doi tuong nghien cuu cua kinh te hoc vi mo 24 1.2.1.2 Phuong phap nghien cuu cua kinh t£ hoc vi mo 25 • f ? 1.2.3 He thong kinh te vi mo va mdi quan he giua cac r r r bien so kinh te vi mo co ban 26 1.2.3.1 Tong san pham quoc dan va su tang trudng kinh te 27 1.2.3.2 Tong cung va tong cau cua nen kinhtS 28 1.2.3.3 Chu ky kinh te (kinh doanh) va su thieu hut san luong 34 1.2.3.4 Mdi quan he tang trudng kinh te va that nghiep 35 ? r 1.2.3.5 Moi quan he tang trudng kinh te va lam phat 36 1.2.3.6 Lam phat va that nghiep : 36 1.2.4 Muc tieu kinhte vi mo 37 1.2.5 Nhung chinh sach kinh te vi mo chu yeu 40 CAU HOI THAO LUAN 43 CHVONG TONG SAN PHAM VA PHtfONG PHAP DO LlTdNG TONG SAN PHAM QUOC DAN 44 2.1 TONG SAN PHAM QUOC DAN 44 2.1.1 Khai niem tong san pham quoc dan (GNP) 44 2.1.2 Tong san pham quoc noi 47 2.1.3 ¥ nghTa cua cac chi tieu GNP va GDP phan tich kinh te vi mo 48 2.2.CAC PHCrONG PHAP TINH GDP 50 to 2.2.1 Sa luan chuyen kinhte vi mo 51 2.2.2 Phuong phap tinh GDP theo luong san pham 54 2.2.2.1 Tieu dung cua ho gia dinh : 54 2.2.2.2 Dau tu (I) 55 2.2.2.3 Chi tieu ve hang hoa va dich vu cua Chinh phu (G) 57 2.2.2.4 Xuat va nhap khau (X va IM) 58 2.2.3 Phuong phap xac tinh GDP theo luong thu nhap hoac chi phi 59 2.2.4 Phuong phap gia tri gia tang 61 2.3 MOI QUAN HE GIUA CAC CHi TIEU TONG SAN PHAM, THU NHAP QUOC DAN VA THU NHAP CO THE SET DUNG 63 2.3.1 Ban lai vS GNP 63 2.3.2 San pham quoc rong (NNP) 65 2.3.3 Thu nhap quoc dan (Y) va thu nhap co the su dung (YD) 66 2.4 CAC DONG NHAT THLTC KINH TE VI MO CO BAN 68 2.4.1 Dong nhat thuc tiet kiem va dau tu 69 2.4.2 D6ng nhat thuc mo ta moi quan he giua cac khu vuc nen kinh te 71 CAU HOI ON TAP 75 CHlTONG TONG CAU VA CHINH SACK TAI KHOA QUOC GIA 79 3.1 TONG CAU VA PHUONG PHAP XAC DINH SAN LUONG CAN BANG 79 3.1.1 Tong can mo hinh don gian 79 3.1.1.1 Ham tieu dung 80 3.1.1.2 Ham dau tu 84 3.1.1.3 Ham tong cau va phuong phap xac dinh san luong can bang 86 *6 3.1.1.4 Sdnhan 90 ? x x r 3.1.2 Mo hinh tong cau nen kinh te dong co sir tham gia cua chinh phu 95 3.1.2.1 Chi tieu cua chinh phu va tong cau .95 3.1.2.2 Thue va tong cau 97 3.1.3 Mo hinh tong cau nen kinh te ma 103 CHINH SACK TAI KHOA 108 3.2.1 Chinh sach tai khoa ly thuyet 108 3.2.2 Chinh sach tai khoa thuc te 111 3.2.3 Tham hut ngan sach 113 3.2.3.1 Khai niem 113 3.2 t1 £ 3.23.2 Chinh sach tai khoa cung chi^u va chinh sack tai khoa nguoc chieu 116 3.2.4 Tham hut ngan sach va van de thao lui dau tu 118 3.2.5 Cac bien phap tai trg cho tham hut ngan sach 119 CAU HOI ON ON TAP 120 CHVONG TTEN TE VA CHINH SACH TIEN TE ♦ • QUOC GIA 123 4.1 CHlfC NANG TIEN TE 124 4.1.1 Chuc nang cua tien te 124 4.1.1.1 Phuong tien toan 124 4.1.1.2 Du tru giatri 124 4.1.13 Doti vi hach toan 125 4.1.2 Cac loai tien 125 4.2 MlTC CUNG TIEN VA VAI TRO KIEM SOAT TIEN TE CUA NGAN HANG TRUNG VONG (NHTU)128 4.2.1 Tien co so 128 4.2.2 Ngan hang thuong mai (NHTM) 129 4.23 Muc cung tien (MS) 131 4.2.4 Vai trd kiem soat tien te cua ngan hang trung uongl36 4.2.4.1 Chuc nang cua NHTU’ 136 4.2.4.2 Thue thi chinh sach tien te 137 4.2.43 Hoat dong thi truong md .138 4.2.4.3 Quy dinh ty le du tru bat buoc 138 4.2.4.4 -Lai suat chiet khau 139 4.3 MITC CAU TIEN TE 140 4.3.1 Cac loai tai san tai chinh 4.3.2 Muc cau ve tien 140 141 4.3.3 Muc cau tai san 143 'i 4.3.4 Moi quan he giua muc cau tien va muc cau trai phieu 144 4.4 MOI QUAN HE TIEN TE, LAI SUAT VA TONG CAU 146 4.4.1 Thi trudngtiente 146 4.4.2 Moi quan he lai suat vcd tieu dung, d£u tu, xu^t khau 150 4.4.3 Moi quan he lai suat voi tong cau 151 4.4.4 Mo hinh IS - LM nen kinh te dong 152 4.4.4.1 Duong IS 152 4.4.4.2 Duong LM 155 4.4.4.3 Su can bang dong thoi tren cac thi trudng hang boa va tien te 157 4.5 SU PHOI HOP CUA HAI CHINH SACH TAI KHOA VA TIEN TE TRONG DIEU TIET KINH TE VI MO CUA CHINH PHU 158 i* 4.5.1 Chfnh sach tai khoa ; 158 4.5.2 Chinh sach tien te 160 4.5.3 Phoi hop chinh sach tai khoa va tien te 162 CAU HOI ON TAP 164 CHVONG TONG CUNG VA CHU KY KINH DOANH CUA NEN KINH TE 168 5.1 TONG CUNG VA THI TRUING LAO DONG 168 5.1.1 Thi truong lao dong 168 5.1.2 Moi quan he gia ca, tien cong va viec lam 171 5.1.3 Hai truong hop cua dirong tong cung 173 5.1.3.1 Truong phai co dien 173 5.1.3.2 Truong phai Keynes 174 5.1.4 Duong tong cung thuc te ngan han 178 5.1.4.2 Moi quan he giua viec lam vatien cong 180 5.1.4.4 Duong t6ng cung 183 5.2 MOI QUAN HE TONG CUNG, TONG CAU VA QUA TRINH TU' DIEU CHINH CUA NEN KINH TE 184 5.2.1 Moi quan he tong cung, tong cau 184 5.2.2 Su dieu chinh ngan han, trung han va ngan han 186 5.3 CHU KY KINH DOANH 188 CAU HOI ON TAP 191 CHU ONG THAT NGHIEP VA LAM PHAT 194 6.1 THAT NGHIEP 194 6.1.1 That nghiep la gi? 194 6.1.2 Ty le that nghiep 197 6.1.3 Tac hai ctia that nghiep 197 6.1.4 Cac loai that nghiep 198 6.1.4.1 Phan loai theo loai hinh that nghiep 199 6.1.4.2 Phan loai theo ly that nghiep 199 6.1.4.3 Phan loai theo nguon goc that nghiep 203 6.1.5 That nghiep tu nhien va nhan to anh huong 207 6.1.5.1 Ty le that nghiep ty nhien 207 6.1.5.2 Cac nhan to anh hirong denthat nghiep ty nhien 209 6.1.6 Ha thap ty le that nghiep 211 6.1.6.1 Doi vdi that nghiep ty nhien 211 6.1.6.2 Doi vdi that nghiep chu ky 212 6.2 LAM PHAT 213 6.2.1 Lam phat la gi? 213 6.2.2 Quy mo cua lam phat 215 6.2.3 Tac hai ciia lam phat .217 6.2.4 Cac ly thuyet ve lam phat .219 6.2.4.1 Ly thuyet lam phat cau keo 219 6.2.4.2 Ly thuyet lam phat chi phi day 221 6.2.4.3 Lam phat dy kien 222 r f % Trong nen kinh te dong, IS duoc ve cho mot muc gia co dinh vdi chi tieu cua chinh phu (G) va muc thue (T) da cho Khi G va T thay doi, duong IS se dich chuyen sang trai hoac sang phai Trong mot nen kinh te md, su dich chuyen cua duong IS ■» phu thuoc vao su thay doi can can thuong mai hay la su •> * thay doi cua ty gia hoi doai i LM i=i* CM IS > Y Hinh 7.3: mo hinh dirong IS - LM nen kinh te md’ Duong LM, bieu thi six can bang cua thi truong tien te tixong ung voi muc cung tien thirc t£ da cho (MS/p) Khi cung ti£n thuc te thay d6i, duong LM se dich chuySn Di6u se xay dieu kien n£n kinh t£ mo, tir ban chuy£n dong hoan toan tir Tuy nhien, co sy khac co ban sir dich chuyen cua duong LM thuoc vao dSt nude chap nhan 264 ty gia co dinh hay linh boat Duoi day chung ta nghien cuu chi tiet hon timg tnrdng hop cu the 7.4.1 Tac dong cua chinh tai khoa va tien te mot nen kinh te mfr vfri he thong ty gia co dinh, r A A von hoan toan van dong tu* Trong truong hop nay, ty gia hoi doai duoc Ngan hang trung uong (NHTU) quy dinh va gin mot mfrc co dinh da cong bo Khi co sue ep nang hoac giam ty gia hoi doai, NHTV se dung du tru ngoai te can thiep, de giu cho ty gia d nguyen muc ty gia chinh thuc Tuy nhien, vi von van dong hoan toan tu do, NHTU se khong the cung mot luc theo duoi ca hai muc tieu on dinh ty gia hoi doai va on dinh muc cung tien Phai thay ring: lai suit nude tang len, tu ban nude ngoai don vao nude, gay sue ep nang gia dong noi te (e tang) Ngan hang trung uong phai dung mua ngoai te, tang du tru: de tang cung noi te tren thi trudng ngoai hoi, nham giu cho ty gia la khong ddi Mat khac, dan chung nude se ban ngoai te ddi lay noi te mua tai san nude Ca 265 hai tac dong deu dan den cung tien noi te tang len Trong truxmg hop cung tien tuot khdi su kidm soat cua NHTLT, tro mot bien noi sinh Nam dtroc dien bien cua tinh hudng tren, ta dd dang phan tich tac dong cua chinh sach tai khda va tidn te ty gia hoi doai la cd dinh 7.4.1.1 Tac dong cua chinh sach tai khda Gia su nen kinh te dang can bang d trang thai E, bay gid nha nude quydt dinh tang chi tieu cua Chinh phu Trong thdi han ngin, gia ca chua kio thay doi, tdng cdu se tang len Dudng IS dich sang ben phai den vi tri IS ndu ndn kinh td la dong, can bang mdi thiet lap tai E Tuy nhien, ndn kinh td md, tai E lai sudt da tang tren muc lai sudt cua thd gidi Tu ban dd vao nude NHTU’ can thiep bang each mua du tru ngoai hoi, diy noi te vao luu thong Dan chung cung chuydn tu tai san nude ngoai sang tai san nude Cung tien thuc td tang len Dudng LM dich chuydn sang LM can bing mdi duoc thidp lap tai E"vdi san luong tang len, muc lai suat can bang tren dudng CM 266 i LM LM’ i=i* CM IS’ IS > Hinh 7.4: Tac dong cua chinh sach tai khda mfr rong nen kinh te mo* Nhu vay, chinh sach tai khoa truong hop co the han che thao lui dau tu, nhu le phai xay nen kinh te dong, khuyen khich tang san luong Tac dong cua chinh sach tai khoa mo rong nen r \ ! kinh te md, manh hon tac dong cua no nen kinh te dong, it la ve mat ngan han Hinh 7.4 md ta tinh hudng tren, ■> X Tuy nhien, thdi han dai su tang len cua tong cau se dan den tang muc gia noi chung, giam kha nang cang tranh cua hang hda trongnudc, giam xua tkhau rong, san luong giam Qua trinh se tiep tuc cho den trang thai can bang cu 267 (E) duqc thiet lap lai Tuy vay, luc can can thuong mai bi * r r r tham hut Thuc te la, dieu kien ty gia hoi doai co dinh, t r vdi muc lai suat cua the gioi da cho, chinh sach tai khoa khong dong th6 dat cung luc hai muc tieu: Can bang nuoc va can bang ngoai nude 7.4.1.2 Tdc dong cua chink sack tien te Cung nhu- tren, gia su nen kinh te dang a trang thai can bang E NHTU* quyet dinh thuc hien chinh sach tien te md rong, vdi viec tang cung tien danh nghia.Vdi mure gia da cho, t f y cung tien thuc te tang len, dudng LM dich phai den LM Lai f f f r y suat giam xuong duai laisuat cua the gidi Cac nha dau tu nuac se tim kiem ca hoi dau tu o nuoc ngoai Mot luong von se chay nuoc ngoai NHIU phai ban du tru ngoai te dd giu ty gia hoi doai khong doi Qua trinh keo dai cho tdi muc cung tien va lai suat tro lai muc ban dau Hinh 7.5 mo ta tinh huong tren 268 I i LM LM’ E i=i* C Y Hinh 7.5: tac dong cua chinh sach tien te dieu kien ty gia hoi doai cd dinh r r Nhu vay chinh sach tien te to kem hieu lye hon so voi nen kinh te dong day, tac dong cua sir ma rang tien te da bi triet tieu bdi ludng vang dong cua tir ban nuoc ngoai lai suat giam di, mac du dau tir nhan nuoc co tang len A > 7.4.1.3.Tdc dong cua chinh sachphd gid dong tien Trong dieu kien ap dung he thong ty gia hoi doai co dinh, thi ty gia hoi doai la mot bien chinh sach Ty gia chinh thuc co the thay doi thuoc vao quyet dinh cua chinh phu thong qua NHTU’ Khi NKTU” quyet dinh pha gia dong tidn (nghia la tang E, giam e) thi quyet dinh se anh hirong den can bang can can thuong mai Hang xuat khau tro nen re mot each tuong 269 r i r doi thi trirang nuac chu nha Xuat khau do tang len •» va nhap khau giam di, vi hang hoa cua nuoc thuc hien chinh sach pha gia tro nen co kha nang canh tranh tren thi truong quoc te Do can can thirong mai duoc cai thien, (NX) tang, f ’ duong IS dich chuyen sang phai, lai suat tang len Tu ban chay vao nuoc NHTU'phai can thiep, cong chung muon giu nhieu hem noi te so vdi ngoai te Cung tien thuc te thay doi duong LM dich sang phai Diem can bang moi duoc thiet lap tai E” Nhu trubng hop chinh sach tai khoa ma rong (xem hinh 7.5) dieu khac o day la duong IS dich chuySn tac dong cua can can thuemg mai (NX) chu khong phai tac dong cua chi tieu chinh phu (G) Tuy nhien, ve mat dai han, cung nhu trongtruong hop chinh sach tai khoa mo rong, tac dong cua chinh sach pha gia dong tiSn se bi han ch£ tdng c£u tang len, keo theo gia ca cung tang theo r Mac khac, neu mot nuoc khu vuc thuc hien chinh sach pha gia dong ti€n deu khong tranh khdi la gay tac dong xSu den cac nuoc lang gidng Rat co kha nang la nuoc se phai ganh chiu hau qua cua mot phan ung mang tinh chdt tra dua cua cac nuoc lang can 270 I I Tuy vay, y tirong ve mot chinh sach pha gia dan ta den suy nghi rang, neu chinh phu theo dudi mot chinh sach danh \ f y r gia dong tien qua cao se gay tac hai xau cho xuat khau rong va do den san luong, gia ca va viec lam nude 7.4.2 Tac dong cua chinh sach tai khda va tien te nen kinh te mo* vdi he thong linh boat va von van dong hoan toan tu* Trong trudng hop ty gia hoi doai khdng la mot bien so chinh sach Ty gia linh boat duoc xac dinh tren thi trudng ngoai hoi va thay ddi theo cung, cau tren thi trudng Hon the nua, d nhung nude thi trudng phat trien cao, y < phan Idn nhung thay ddi cua ty gia hoi doai la tac dong cua su van dong tuban giua cac nuoc chu khdng phai chi sir thay ddi can can thuong mai yr i Nhu vay, mot ludng vdn tu nude ngoai vao nuoc, cau ve dong ndi te tang len, day ty gia hdi doai (e) len cao Su tang gia cua dong ndi te anh hudg true tiep den can can thuong mai Hang xuat khau trd nen dat tuong ddi so vdi hang nhap khau Xuat khau do giam di nhap khau tang len Can can thuong mai bi tham hut, keo theo san luong giam Neu chinh sach tai khda hoac tien te dan den viec tang 271 lai suat, do den thao lui dau tu mot nen kinh te dong, \ f f •> thi nen kinh te ma, tac dong la giam xuat khau rong va cung dan den san luong giam Nhung luc ty gia hdi doai se la co che chuyen giao tac dong chu khong phai la dau tu vao tieu dung ' Hay xet cac truong hop cu the 7.4.2.1.Tdc dong cua chinh sack taikhda Gia su nen kinh te dang can bang Bay gio chinh phu thuc hien chinh sach tai khoa ma rong, tong cau se tang len, lai suat tang va ty gia hoi doai cung tang (e tang E giam) Xu£t khau giam di Nhu vay co su thao lui hoan toan, khong chi dau tu nude giam ma lai suat giam i LM CM i=i* IS’ IS - ¥ Hinh 7.6 anh hirdng ciia chinh sach tai khoa nen kinh te md ty gia hoi doai linh boat 272 Chinh sach tai khoa ma rang lam dich chuyen duang IS den vi tri IS diem can bang mdi (E) lai suat cao han lai suat thi tnrong the giai Tu ban tran vao nude Can can toan thang du Dong tien noi dia tang gia Xuat khau giam Ket qua la duang IS chuyen dich ve vi tri ban dau: can bang dugc thiet lap lai a vi tri ban dau E san lugng khdng tang len va can can thuang mai xau di i LM E” F i=i* LM’ ♦ CM IS’ IS ► Y Hinh 7.7 Tac dong ngan han va dai han cua viec md rong tien te nen kinh te md, ty gia hoi doai linh boat 7.4.2.2, Chinh sdeh tien te Hinh 7.7 mo ta tac dong cua viec tang cung ve tien cua NHTU’ 273 X f Ma rong tien te lam tang cung tien thuc te, dirong LM / ’ f f > chuyen den LM Lai suat giam lam gia hoi doai cua dong noi dia giam (e giam E tang) Nguac lai, vdi tac dong cua chinh sach tai khoa, dong tien noi dia giam gia lam tang kha nang canh tranh Xuat khau rong tang len, lam dubng IS dich •> i x r » chuyen sang ben phai IS Lai suat tra ve muc lai suat cua thi truong th£ giai Can bang med duac thiet lap tai E”, chinh sach tien te ma rong lam san luong tang len Tuy nhien ve mat dai han, san luong tang lam gia ca va \ > a r tien luong tang Can bang tien te thuc te giam Duong LM ? chuyen ve vi tri ban dau LM, lai suat tang dan Dong ti£n noi dia lai tang gia, IS dan tra lai vi tri ban dau IS Can bang duac thiet lap a vi tri cu Nhu vay, chinh sach tien te co tac dong Ion hon nen kinh te ma, ty gia linh boat, tu ban chuyen dong tir hoan toan Nhung tac dong bi han ch£ thoi ky dai han, luc ma gia ca tang len, san lirong lai tra lai muc binh thirong, song tien cong thirc te va ty gia hbi doai da tangh cung vdi toe tang cua gia ca 274 CAU HOI ON TAP f f Loi the so sanh la gi? Nguyen nhan nao xuat hien thixong mai quoc te ? Tham hut can can toan noi len van de gi ve moi quan r r he kinh te giua cac quoc gia? Ty gia hoi doai la gi? Nhung yeu to nao co the lam cho ty gia hoi doai can bang thay doi? A Trong dieu kien nude ta hien vi phai on dinh ty gia i r hoi doai? Ngan hang trung uong phai ap dung bien phap gi de r •> gin cho ty gia hoi doai on dinh? Trong mot nen kinh te co cac so lieu sau: C = 200 +0,75Yd 1= 100 + 0,2Y- lOr G = 500 T = 40 + 0,2Y X = 430 M = 200 + 0,05Y Lm = 200 - 20r + 0,2Y Sm = 650 a Thiet lap phuong trinh dudng IS va LM; b Xac dinh lai sudt va san luong can bang; c Tinh muc tieu dung va dau tu tai mure san luong can bang; 275 \