Luận văn Thạc sỹ - Group 10 impacts of climate change to the economic development of vietnam

Literature ReviewThere are many studies that have examined the effects of climate change on Vietnam’s economy.. The majority of findings stated that climate change have negative impacts

Le Thi Dieu Linh Nguyen Thanh Tung

Ha Noi, May 2014

Literature Review 3

I General 3

1 Geographical location & Vietnam’s climate 3

a Geographical location 3

b Climate 3

2 Effects of geographical & climate on Vietnam’s economy: 6

a Effects of geographical location to Vietnam’s economy: 6

II Definition, causes and actual situation of Viet Nam under climate change 7

1 Definition of climate change 8

2 Causes of climate change: 8

a Natural causes 8

b Human causes 9

c Greenhouse gases and their sources 9

3 Actual situation in Vietnam: 12

III Impact of Climate change on Viet Nam economy 14

1 Impact of Climate change on economy in general: 14

2 Climate change directly affects every economic sector 15

a Impacts of climate change on agriculture, forestry and fisheries 15

b Impact of climate change on industry sector 20

c .Impacts of climate change on tourism sector 20

d Impacts of climate change in components of the economy 22

IV Policies to deal with problems caused by climate change 26

1 Opportunities 26

2 Meeting the Challenges of Climate Change 26

The Three Approaches in Brief: 27

References 35

Literature Review

There are many studies that have examined the effects of climate change on

Vietnam’s economy The majority of findings stated that climate change have negative impacts on Vietnam’s economy and suggest possible adaptation or mitigation measures

to lessen the adverse impacts The economies of some countries are more vulnerable to climate

change than the global average, according to a report by World Bank (2009),

Vietnam is one of the five countries predicted to be among the most affected by climate change due to its long coastlines According to Tran Duc Vien in Climate change and its impact on agriculture in Vietnam, it is believed that climate change is going to have hugeimpact on people’s health since the rising of temperatures is a good conditions for

diseases such as malaria to develop Claudia Ringler (climate change impacts in

Vietnam: potential for agricultural mitigation) stated that adverse impacts of climate change can affect economic growth, poverty and malnutrition The third world is more likely to have a larger scale of their economies in agriculture and forestry Climate change surely decrease the productivity of the agriculture due to its increasing heat of global warming

Low-latitude countries suffer up to four-fifth of the negative impacts of climate change

(Mendelsohn et al 2006), While the negative impacts of climate change is clear, some still is optimistic about the outlook of the future world’s economy,

Robert Mendelsohn (climate change and economic growth) argues that the impacts from climate change are not likely to affect the growth of global economy for the next four decades These impacts are simply not large enough to affect economic growth this century

However some also said that although it’s a challenge, climate change also has some forgotten benefits Matt Ridley (Why Climate Change Is Good for the World) has said:

“Climate change has done more good than harm so far and is likely to continue doing so for most of this century This is not some barmy, right-wing fantasy; it is the consensus

of expert opinion Yet almost nobody seems to know this.” According to what he stated

in his research, climate change had bring many benefits to human, such as improvement

in global economic, fewer winter death, lower energy cost, better agricultural yields and many others advantages

The adaptation and mitigation measures are also mentioned in many studies For

example, in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, the researchers had stated how human can adapt to the change of climate in the future years, and also theway we could mitigate the emissions of GHG and climate change In this studies, the author have stated that it is a need for every country in this world to unite to face the climate change While agriculture has traditionally been the focus of attention on climatechange impact, nearly every sector is sensitive to climate change and will need to adapt

to future conditions(Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction in Africa)

As observed, we relized that previous researches provided knowledge with features

In this research, we concentrate on the impacts of climate change on economic

sectors of Vietnam, as well as the whole economy This research also provides

opportunities and threats of climate change, and base on that to give the absolute and effective solutions

- Vietnam’s area: 331.698 km2, including 324.480 km2 of mainland and 4.200 km2

of internal water Length of coast: 3.260 km2 (not including islands)

- Terrain’s characteristics:

 Many plateau with thick forests

 The country was divided into mountains, the Red River delta in the north; and the Annamite Mountains, Highlands, Central coastal plain, and the Mekong Delta in the South

b Climate

- Vietnam’s long area makes the climate divided into 3 regions:

- Humidity: quite high, average 84 – 100%

- There’re differences in latitude, therefore, Vietnam’s climate has featured

differentiation:

sea => rainfall

- Average of rainfall: 120 – 300 cm

 Rainfall trends to increase throughout many years, and centralizes in some rainy months => the go-up of flood frequency.

Table 1: The prediction of annual rainfall’s increase comparing to 1980 – 1999 period (cm)

- Average of annual temperature:

In general, the temperature tends to be higher than mountains and plateaus region

Temperature of North Vietnam seems to augument much more than South of

Vietnam Comparing to the 1980 – 1999 period, average temperature in the North will increase by 2.4 – 6.8°C, and 1.6 – 2.0°C in the South in 2100

Table 2: The prediction of annual temperature’s increase comparing to 1980 – 1999

Trend: growing fast Due to Monre date, the speed of sea level rise is expected to grow fast in the period of 2020 – 2100, go up at least 30 cm in 2050 and up to 75 cm

2 Effects of geographical & climate on Vietnam’s economy:

a Effects of geographical location to Vietnam’s economy:

- Vietnam is located on an international crossroads of maritime& aviation, which create favorable conditions for our country to exchange with countries in the region and around the world

- Vietnam is also a convenient gate-way entrance to sea for Laos, Northeast Thailand, Cambodia and China's Southwestern region

- The area of sea is much more extensive than landside, which facilitates some marine economy

 Favorable location is important to develop economic sectors, regions, which creates conditions to open policies, integration with the countries in the world, attracting foreign investment.

b Effects of climate to Vietnam’s economy:

- Rainfall: the go-up of annual rainfall causes the deterioration of transportation system’s infrastructure, increases the maintaining costs

- Temperature:

 The increase in temperature will make paved road (which is designed to withstand the low temperature) bearing more damage This also leads to the reduction of new roads investment

 The increase of temperature also has a considerable effect on natural ecosystem, for example, shifting the temperature boundaries of continental ecosystems and freshwater ecosystems, altering the structure

of plants and animals in some areas Some species of temperate and subtropical can lead to loss of diversity

- Sea level:

 Biodiversity creams reduced by drought, flooding leads to the extinction

in weak species Besides it, species which has strong resistance to drought and floods will grow

II Definition, causes and actual situation of Viet Nam under climate change

For several decades up to now, the activities of human being have increased the factor leading to the warming of the earth such as the exhaust from motorbikes and cars, the increase in population… These factors had caused so many harmful changes to the natural environment If there’s no action to deal with these problems, the result will be disaster

According to the forecast of the International P Climate Change, in 2100, the global temperature will increase from 1,4 to 5,8 degree C And the warming of the earth surfaces will melt the ice of the 2 poles and the high areas, this will lead to the increase

of sea level by 90 cm, plunge some islands into water It is also estimated that to cope with the warming of the earth, each country has to spend the money equivalent to5% to20% of its GDP each year, in which the effect to the developing countries are much greater than developed countries because of the technological level and so on

Vietnam is the country under the great affection by the climate changes

1 Definition of climate change

The earth climatic system consists of the air, the continents and the oceans The process of the climate take place continuously between these factors According to Framework Convetion of the United Nations, we have these definitions:

_ "Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment

or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects

on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed

ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare.” UNFCCC

_ "Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphereand which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods

Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

2 Causes of climate change:

The causes of climate change can be divided into two categories : natural causes and those that are created by man

a Natural causes

There are a number of natural factors responsible for climate change Some of the moreprominent ones are continental drift, volcanoes, ocean currents, the earth's tilt, and comets and meteorites

In our assignment, we pay more attention to the causes that are made by human being rather than the natural ones

b Human causes

The Industrial Revolution in the 19th century saw the large-scale use of fossil fuels for industrial activities These industries created jobs and over the years, people moved from rural areas to the cities This trend is continuing even today More and more land that was covered with vegetation has been cleared to make way for houses Natural resources are being used extensively for construction, industries, transport, and

consumption

All this has contributed to a rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere Fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas supply most of the energy needed to run vehicles, generate electricity for industries, households, etc The energy sector is responsible for about ¾ of the carbon dioxide emissions, 1/5 of the methane emissions and a large quantity of nitrous oxide It also produces nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide

(CO) which are not greenhouse gases but do have an influence on the chemical cycles

in the atmosphere that produce or destroy greenhouse gases

c Greenhouse gases and their sources

activities have all led to a rise in the emission of carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide concentration has risen from pre-industrial levels of 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to about 390 ppmv in 2010 Since 1958 alone (shown here), concentrations have risen by 75 ppmv Source: NOAA

_ Methane

Methane is another important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere About ¼ of all

methane emissions are said to come from domesticated animals such as dairy cows, goats, pigs, buffaloes, camels, horses, and sheep These animals produce methane during the cud-chewing process Methane is also released from rice or paddy fields thatare flooded during the sowing and maturing periods When soil is covered with water itbecomes anaerobic or lacking in oxygen Under such conditions, methane-producing bacteria and other organisms decompose organic matter in the soil to form methane Nearly 90% of the paddy-growing area in the world is found in Asia, as rice is the staple food there China and India, between them, have 80-90% of the world's rice-growing areas

Methane is also emitted from landfills and other waste dumps If the waste is put into

an incinerator or burnt in the open, carbon dioxide is emitted Methane is also emitted during the process of oil drilling, coal mining and also from leaking gas pipelines (due

to accidents and poor maintenance of sites)

This graph shows the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the

atmosphere over the last 2,000 years Increases in concentrations of these gases since

1750 are due to human activities in the industrial era Concentration units are parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per million or billion molecules of air

Source: USGCRP (2009)

A large amount of nitrous oxide emission has been attributed to fertilizer application This in turn depends on the type of fertilizer that is used, how and when it is used and the methods of tilling that are followed Contributions are also made by leguminous plants, such as beans and pulses that add nitrogen to the soil

of huge amounts of greenhouse gases and other pollutants

_ Cars, buses, and trucks are the principal ways by which goods and people are transported in most of our cities These are run mainly on petrol or diesel, both fossil fuels

_ We generate large quantities of waste in the form of plastics that remain in the environment for many years and cause damage

_ We use a huge quantity of paper in our work at schools and in offices

_ Timber is used in large quantities for construction of houses, which means that large areas of forest have to be cut down

_ A growing population has meant more and more mouths to feed Because the land area available for agriculture is limited (and in fact, is actually shrinking as

a result of ecological degradation!), high-yielding varieties of crop are being grown to increase the agricultural output from a given area of land However, such high-yielding varieties of crops require large quantities of fertilizers; and more fertilizer means more emissions of nitrous oxide, both from the field into which it is put and the fertilizer industry that makes it Pollution also results from the run-off of fertilizer into water bodies

3 Actual situation in Vietnam:

In the conference about climate change in 2008, some forecasts about climate change by Mr Hoang Khac Hieu could be summarized in these tables:

Tables 1: National announcement about climate change in Viet Nam( in

Source: Mr Nguyen Khac Hieu, 2008

Table 2: Forecast about climate change in regions of Viet Nam( increase in

temperature in comparison with 1990)( unit 0C

West

NorthEast

North delta

North middle

South Middle

Central highland

South

Source: Mr Nguyen Khac Hieu, 2008

The tendency about climate change in Viet Nam:

_ The temperature in the North area of Viet Nam increase faster than the South area, the temperature of the coastal areas increase slower than the inner area From now to the end of 21st century the highest temperature can increase from 4

to 4.5 degree Celcius and the lowest can be 2 to 2.2 0C according to the

forecast

_ In 10 years up to now, the “El Nino phenomenon” had decreased 20 to 25 percent of rain fall in the Middle and the central highland of Viet Nam, which cause massive and long-lasting drought in the period of El Nino This impact in South of the Middle is greater than North the Middle, North and South central Highland The El Nino phenomenon also cause enormous change in climate, which appear uncommon monsoon, storm tent to be unpredictable about their strength and direction The temperature in winter and summer, in general, are increasing There are more and more unexpected floods and droughts

_ The increase in the sea level also cause flood in the south of Viet Nam Do damage to the infrastructure such as roads, houses, castles even disease to children.

_ The landslide in mountainous areas because of flood had caused a lot of

damages to the living of people in Viet Nam in recent years The landslide of coastal area, which last for hundreds of kilometers, result from the increase in the number of storms and the activities of the tide

1 Impact of Climate change on economy in general:

As growth is a cumulative process, the reductions in GDP levels as a result of climate change translate into small reductions in average annual GDP growth rates over the simulation period When including all the studied effects of climate change, the

average annual GDP growth rate is reduced by between 0.02 and 0.10 percentage points In other words, if the expected average baseline growth rate without climate change is 5.4 per cent per annum, then the growth rate would be expected to be

between 5.30 and 5.38 percentage points

All else being equal Vietnam’s GDP is expected to exceed US$500 billion by 2050, which means that the losses caused by climate change are large in absolute terms GDPlosses are grouped within the range of US$6–15 billion in present value terms These losses provide clear incentives for adaptation policies designed to reduce climate change damages Moreover, the findings suggest that there is a window of opportunity for Vietnam to benefit from pre-emptive action

2 Climate change directly affects every economic sector

a Impacts of climate change on agriculture, forestry and fisheries

 Agriculture

Tracking in recent years shows that there are many expression of extreme weather and not normally follow the general conditions as it should be.

_ Firstly drought situation becomes more serious and frequent For example, in 2010

a severe drought in the northern mountainous province and north-central provinces Then Son La has the largest area of corn yield decreased up to 40%; That year also summer-autumn crop in the north-central province should have been implanted in June but July still not all transplants because the drought, even in the reservoir has

no water In the year of 2013, drought occurs very serious in South Central Coast and Central Highlands Perhaps the 16 thousand hectares of summer-autumn rice should be implanted, but because the reality of not enough water farmers was advised to not producing Last droughts make thousands of hectares of coffee in theCentral Highlands died

_ Secondly extreme cold and damaging cold weather also caused many abnormal anderratic manifestations The most obvious is the longer cold, and the number of extreme cold and damaging cold days is larger than normal Cold penetrate deeper into the provinces of North and South Central Previously the cold affects only the Red River Delta provinces and the northern mountainous provinces alone; but recently the level of cold becomes more serious , and even spread into the south For example, in 2008, 2010 the cold period makes thousands of hectares of rice in Binh Dinh, Phu Yen badly affected because of the low temperature conditions In the northern provinces, the number of extreme cold and damaging cold days

consecutively increased from 38 to 40 , then the extreme and damaging cold days damage continuously increased This situation makes it difficult for crop production

in the northern provinces, then crop in the central provinces and even influence the Highlands

Climate change - one of the factors causing drought in agriculture

_ Thirdly is the happenings of unseasonal rain, hail, unusual tornadoes The situation of unseasonal rain greatly influenced to the cashew in the southeastern provinces Unseasonal rain at flowering greatly affect cashew output In 2013 unusual hail, tornado at the end of dry season and the beggining of rainy season with high frequency has made many great influences

_ The fourth is storms are also abnormal; for example for the last two years, storms and tropical depression in the beggining of the year suddenly appear in the south sea and affect the South Central Coast first This is unusual because asnormal rules, storms will form up and travel from China to Vietnam, with the first target is the North then slowly approach the south central coast …

The initial assessment of the impact of climate change on agricultural sector of

Vietnam shows that total crop production can be reduced from 1-5%, productivity of major crops may be reduced to 10 %, especially for rice production

The forecasts show that by 2100, the granary of Mekong delta are at risk of losing 7.6 million tons / year, equivalent to 40.52% of the total rice production in the region

 Impact on forestry

_ Climate change makes decrease in forest land fund and forest area