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TONG C©NG TY HANG KHONG VIET NAM VIEN KHOA HOC HANG KHONG DE TAI NGHIEN CN KHOA HOC AP DUNG MO HINH TOAN KINH TE HO TRO LAP KE HOACH VAN TAI HANG KHONG CUA TONG CONG TY HANG KHONG VIET NAM Co quan cli[.]
TONG C©NG TY HANG KHONG VIET NAM VIEN KHOA HOC HANG KHONG DE TAI NGHIEN CN KHOA HOC: AP DUNG MO HINH TOAN KINH TE HO TRO LAP KE HOACH VAN TAI HANG KHONG CUA TONG CONG TY HANG KHONG VIET NAM Co quan cliii tri : Vi(n khoa hoc hang khfi ng Chit nhiem de tai : Nguyén Dti:i n Hop Ha Niii - Nam 2003 MUC LUC NPI DUNG SP TRANG Phén I Cac m6 hinh to:in kinh té v6n tai hilng kh0ng Léi Méi d1u .1 Met ta va phln tich nghi p vu I-Gicri thieu chung I.1JMuc tieu I.2 mi iicu D-Mb ta nghiép vu vé h kh:ich D.1J Mot s6 khai niém va clu tiéu dupc dung .2 D.2J Mo ta qui trinh c6p nhdt hanh kh:ich 1/ Phuong phép du béo, sci dfi dti li(u cdp nh t vfl hiinh kh:ich 1.1 J Phuong phap du b:to va l)p ke hoach vé hénh khéch .5 1.2 /So d6 c)p nh(t h kh:ich va du b:to hénh kh:ich 1.2.lJSo d‹5 trich dii lieu h khiich In cc RAS 1.2.2JSo dfi du biro h kh:ich .7 doa u 2J Mfi ta n%iép 2.1 / M t s8 khai ni(m va chi tieu duoc diing 2.2 /Mfi ta qui trlnh cdp nh t doanh thu .9 2.3 / Phuong ph:ip du bao va l)p ké hoach vé doanh thu, chi phi 11 2.4 J So d6 c p nh I doanh thu va du biro doanh thu 11 2.4.1 J So d6 trich doanh thu thuc ID tit cc so dii li u RAS 11 2.4.2 J So d6 du bao doanh thu 12 3J Mo ta nghi p vu chip phi 13 4JM6 ta c:ic tham s8 diéu ki n 13 4.1 / Khai thach 13 4.1.1 J Dir bay 13 4.1.2 / $tn bay 14 4.2/ Thuong mai 14 5/Cac thong tin ddu 14 5.1 / Biro c:to 14 5.2 /Bao céo 15 Mo hinh toén kinh té v n tai Hig khfing .16 1/ Xly dung céc m6 hinh to:in kinh th 16 1/HPmuc tiéu T0ng doanh thu .16 2/Ham muc ti8u T0qng chip pht 17 3/ Ham muc ti6u Tong lpi nhu1n 20 B/ C:ie rimg bu0c v6 khai thfic va thuong mai .22 l/Réng bu6c ve khai thac .22 2,Réng bu8c v8 thuong mai 22 3/Qui v6 cite réng budc chinh cua c:ie bai toén 23 111/ MG hinh toén kinh ID cho timg bai toén 24 1/ Md hinh to:in kinh té cho bai to:in cuc dat t8ng doanh thu 24 2/M8 hinh torn kinh té cho bai toén cuc tiéu t6ng chi phi 25 3/Md hinh toén kinh té cho bai to n cuc dai ting lpi nhu8n 26 TV/ Ap dung cac mo hinh trc:n cho Vi(t Nam Airlines 27 V/ Bai toan qui hoach tuyén tinh dang chub va thu t toan giéi 28 1/ Bai to:in gut hoach tuyén tinh dang chud n tac .28 2/ C:ic bai toan muc IV qui v0 dang chii6n tae 29 Chirong DI Cc so khoa hoc va thu n to:in giai 33 I/Mfi t s6 khai ni in cc so 33 B/Qui hoach g Hi - gdn loin v6i c:ie rig buoc tuyén tinh 37 lJ Dat bai to:in 37 2J Cc so ban d6u 37 3/Thu t toan 40 DI/Qui hoach gdn 16i-gdn loin v‹5i c:ic riing buoc la t p Hi .41 1/Dat bai toan 41 2/ Thu t toén 42 Phdn c:ic bai toiin v)n Hi hang kh8ng Vi(t Nam 43 va m6 hinh toén kinh té cua chung truéing hpp t:ii Hi inn hoa I/Cci scr va phuong ph:ip phdn c:ic bai to:in v n Hi h g kh8ng Vi(t Narn theo tuyfin bay (theo chi sfi j) .44 lJ Co scr va phuong phiip phdn bai to:in cuc dai tong doanh thu 44 2J Ccr so va phuong ph:ip phdn bai to:in cue tiéu tong chi phi 46 3/ Co sci va phuong phap phdn r5 bai to:in circ dai t6ng lpi nhuln 47 D/Co so va phuong ph:ip phdn c:ie bai toén vdn iai héng khfing Vi8t Nam theo loai may bay (theo chi so k) .49 1/ Co so va phiiong phap phdn bai to:in cue dat tong doanh thu 49 2J Co so va phuong; phap phdn bai to:in ciic tiéu tbng chi phi 51 3J Co so vh phuong phiip phdn bai to:in ciic dat t6ng lot nhuM 52 III/Bai toiin tai t6i uu hoa vdn I:ii héng khbng 53 1/ Bai toén I:ii t0i iru ho:i truéng hpp s6 lupng in:iy bay khai th:ic sir dung kh6ng thay doi vé mcr thém mdt s$ tuy6n bay mii .54 1.1/ M8 hinh to:in hpc ciia bai to:in circ dai tdng doanh thu b8 sung th6m T tuyén bay méri vao mang 54 1.2/ M8 hinh to:in hpc ciia bai torn cue tidu tdng chi phf b$ sung the T tuy$n bay vao 1.3/ Md hinh to:in hoc ciia bai toiin cue dai tong lot nhuln b$ sung thém T tuyén bay méri vao 2/ Bai toan tai t$i uu hoé truéng hpp s6 lirong in:iy bay khai th:ic sir dung tang thém, so tuyén bay tuyén bay khdng thay dbi 55 UMé› hinh to:in hoc ciia bai to n cuc dai t8ng doanh thu s8 lupng in:iy bay khai thiic t g thém .56 2.2 /Mo hinh toé n hpc ciia bai to:in cuc tiéu tony chi phi sfi luong in:iy bay khai th:ie tang thfim 56 2.3 JM0 hinh to n hoc ciia bai toén cuc dai t8ng loi nhu6n sfi lupng miiy bay khai th:ic td ng thém 56 3J Bai to:in I:ii t6i inn ho:i truérig hpp s6 lupng in:iy bay khai thac sit dijng ting thém, d6ng th6i mci them m6t s6 tuy6n bay m‹5i 56 3.1 JM6 hinh toiin hpc cua bai to:in cuc ‹lai t6ng doanh thu sd luong may bay khai th:ic tdng th6m va mo thém sd tuyén bay méii .57 3.2 /Mfi hinh to:in hoc ciia bai toén cuc tieu t0ng chi phi s6 luong may bay khai thac tang thém va mo thém so tuyén bay méri 57 3.3 /M8 hinh to:in hoc ciia bai toiin cue dai tbng lpi nhudn s6 luong in:iy bay khai thac tig thém va mo thém s8 tuyén bay mii .57 Ph D Vcrc lupng va du b:to c:ic tham sfi ddu vao ciia céc bai to:in l p k6 hoach v6n Hi hang khfing cua tong c8ng ty Héng khfing Vi t Nam 58 Met ddu 58 Chuong I Ucic luong va du bao so luong I-lanh khach vW chuyén trén cac tuyén bay ciia Vietnam Airlines lheo théi gian 59 I/Bai to:in tim duéng hoi qui cua ky vong to n s8 luong hiinh kh:ich vW chuyén .59 II/Bai toén ucic lupng s6 luong hénh khach vW chuy8n it nhdt va nhi6u nhdt 66 Uéc lupng va du béo doanh thu trsn cac tuyén bay cua Vietnam Airlines theo théii gian 67 I/Bai toan tim duéng h0i gut cua ky vong to:in doanh thu 67 1I/Bai to:in ucic luorig doanh Thu it nhdt va nhiéu nh1t 70 Chuong III Ucic lupng va du bao h( so sit dpng ghé tren c:ie tuyen bay ciia Vietnam Airlines theo thiii gian 72 I- Bar toan tim dirimg hot qiii cua ky vpng toan h( sé sit dpng ghé 72 O- Bai to:in uoc luong s6 sir d9ng ghtf it nhft va nhi6u nhtft 75 Chuong IV U‹ic lupn g va dq b:to chi phi bién doi theo chuyén bay trén c:ie tuyén bay ciia Vietnam Airlines theo thiii gian 77 Mcr ddu 77 I/Bai to:in tlm duéng hd i qui cua kj vpng toén chi phi vdn chuydn 78 B/Bai toén ucic lif png chi phi it nh6t va nhiéu nhd t 81 Ph BI Phdn tich va thiét ké h th6ng Ph mhm hfi tro l p ké hoach bay v&r Hi hang kh0ng cua Tong cfin ty va két qua thii nghi(m 87 1/ Phdn mém hfi tro l p ke hoach bay .87 D/ Ph:trr tich va thiét ké he thong phM mém ho trp ltip ké hoach bay v n téi hang kh6ng Vi(t Nam 88 1/Ph&i tich va tluét ké CSDL 89 2/ Ciich lly dii lt0u 93 3/ Cac FORM béo c:to chinh 123 BI/ Thii nghiem va d:inh gi:i két qué thit nghi m ph mém 124 IV/ K6t tub va kién n%i 138 i/ s i lui» ii 2/ Ki$n ngh; 139 Tai li6u tham khao 141 PHAN I CAC MO HINH TOAN KINH TE TRONG VA\ N TAI HANG KHONG Lbi Mtr d:iu: Chiing ta da bi8t Hitng kh8ng la m6t rig kinh doanh léin ciia b6t ky mot Qu6c gia nao trt:n thé gi6i Chinh vi v y dé hoach dinh cac chién lucic dilng d¼ kinh doanh hitng kh0ng, thi vi c :ip dung cac phuong phiip khoa hoc ky thu t kh6ng th6 thiéu dunc sir v n dung c:ic mo hinh toan kinh t6 nh tro giilp quy6t dinh d6i voi cdng t:ie to chfic trim khai thuc hi(n c:ie cfing vi(c dim hanh k6 hoach v n tai hang khfing nhu: p ke hoach bay trén mang, di6u hanh d6i bay, phdn bay phi c6ng, la rlt cdn thi6t va quan Hi n trén thé gi‹5i da co rdt nhif:u nuoc nghién ciiu nhiing v d$ nay, nh4t la cac nuoc co ngénh hang kh6ng ph:it trién manh nhu My, Phap, Anh, Canada, Thuc té cho thly két qua ciia vi c nghién ciiu :ip dung cac phuong phap toiin kinh té dC giai quyc:t nhfing v d$ vM téi héng kh6ng ci mot s6 Hiing h g kh8ng trén thé giéii da lém cho lot nhu8n tang tin ro r(t ma kh8ng huéng va g6y su dao 1‹5n diflu h M‹) t nhiiiig vln dé cén giai quyét vi(c trcr giiip quye” t du| ih nganh hig khhng la ho trp cong t:ic diéu hénh ké hoach bay trén toan mang cho hiéu qua kinh th Trong bai toiin phdn lufing bay (phdn b6 s6 chuy8n bay ciia sfi may bay cac loai dang khai th:ic sir dung) tren mang duéng bay la vtfn dé phéi giai quyét d du tien Tir m‹ii giai quyét dén c:ic vK d6 tiép theo ID di6u h c:ic d 6i bay (phdn lich bay cho in:iy bay), phd n bay c6ng, phdn bay tiép vién, DC Hi khoa hoc ngliién ciiu giai quyét bai toén chfnh sau: lJ Xdy dimg m8t so md hinh to:in kinh té phii hpp Hi hiing khfing Cu the la x6y dung ba mfi hinh to:in kinh th: tim cac phuong :in phén b6 s8 chuyén bay ciia c:ie loai may bay hién dang khai th:ie sir dung, v6i s6 luong timg loai may bay da bi$t trén c:ic tuyén bay cua mang cho cuc dai t8ng doanh thu (revenue) tren cac tuyén bay toén mang, cuc tiéu tong chi phi (cost) trfln c4c tuyén bay toén mang, cue dai tong lot nhum (revenue - cost) rim c:ie iuyén bay toén mang cua Vietnam Airlines 2/Xdy dung cac md hinh to:in kinh té d8i v‹ii vd n téi hhng kh8ng ciia T6ng c8ng ty oong tniong hpp ct tai t6i iru ho:i (t g th6m tuy8n bay trfln mang, the:in loai may bay, th8m s6 miiy bay, ) 3/ Xly dung c:ie thupt to:in hieu qua dé giai c:ie bai toén néu nén 4/ D6 xult c:ic phuong ph:ip du bao theo théi gian d8i v‹ii c:ie tham sfi chinh dttu vao cho ba bai toén dfi la: himh kh:ich, doanh thu va chi phi 5/ Xdy dung ph mhm in:iy tinh giai cho m0t ba bai toén nay: cu the la bai to:in cue dai tong lpi nhuM tr6n c:ic tuyén bay tot mang cua Hiing kh6ng Viet Nam CHUDNG I M© TA VA PHAN TICH NGHIEP VU I- Gidi thi(u chung: Vi(c mG ta va phdn tich mdt c:ich chi ti6t va cu th6 c:ic tham s6 va cac bién cho bai I ty HKVN” sé giup ich rst nhiéu va quyc:I dinh cho vi c xdy dimg va thiét ké cc li(u, phuong ph:ip p trinh va c:ic bao c:to ddu ciia chuong thinh phM mc:in 1/ Muc tiéu +Dép ’ g duoc c6u ciia bai to:in la dna nhanh nhd t va chf nh xac Hi giéi dé yéu ho tro cho nguéi sit dung va lanh dao cdp tr8n co thé dna cac quyét dinh cuoi ciing ve ke hoach v n tai hang khfing + Mo ta chi tiét ky cang cac bien, tham s8 ddu vao theo dung chiic nig nghi p vu ciia Ban KHTT sé la tién dé 161 cho vi c phdn tich va I p trinh ph6n mhm sau + Tu d6ng ho:i nh p c:ic st liéu lich sit va ké hoach v6 h khiich, doanh thu va chi phi Diy la cac tham sfi ddu vao chf nh cho chuong trinh ph mém sau + Co thé két n6i dune vet cac h2 thfing cc so dti liéu dang co ciia Tong c6ng ty nhu h( thfing gut 1y ve: hanh khich va doanh thu (h6 thong RAS), thong quan 1y chi phi (he th8ng GAS), cc so dir 1i(u ké hoach vé h khiich, doanh thu va chi phi cua Ban KHTT I.2/ Chi tiéu + Tfii uu hoa phén p trinh dé chuong trinh chay nhanh nhilt co thé Tranh c:ie hién tupng bao l8i hoac treo may, + Dtia ditpc lot giai dé ho tro cac quyét d quan trong vi c ldp ke hoach v n tai va chub hoa cac bao c:to d6u theo yéu cdu + Dir li u lich sir duoc luu trii cho nhiéu nd cho nhiéu th:ing nam, nhiéu tub nd theo yéu c6u nghi p vu Ban KHTT dé nghi + Viéc thiét ké cc so dli lix:u phai dém bao cm thiét co thé mci rong va bO sung c:ie chuc n g m‹5i cho h thong + Chuong trinh ph mém tao c:ic bi6u nh p s6 li6u (Form nh p so 1i(u) dé dé dang c p nh t va siia dot cac bién, c:ic tham sd d6u vao H• Mb ta nghi(p vu vé hanh kh:ich: + 58 lieu (st luong) theo Khai th:ie: K6t qua vM chuyén dune tinh cho hig v n chuyén ma kh6ng phdn bi t trén dfi cci phM cua hing co chfiJtai hay kh6ng + S‹5 1i(u (st luong) theo Thuong mai: Két qua vM chuyén dune ph6n tach cho hang v n chuy6n va hiing d6’i t:ic nc:u trén chuy$n bay dfi co cho/tai cua h5ng kh:ic