175 this scenario encourages replacing old and highly intensive energy appliances with electricity saving devices 6 1 4 Energy Diversity Vietnam is currently heavily dependent on fossil resources (69[.]
175 this scenario encourages replacing old and highly intensive-energy appliances with electricity-saving devices 6.1.4 Energy Diversity Vietnam is currently heavily dependent on fossil resources (69.6%) to meet its energy demand Reducing this reliance would require a fundamental change through diversification of the entire energy supply mix In the SC1 scenario, the share of fossil fuel is estimated to increase to 88.2% by 2030, while in the SC2 scenario, it is expected to reduce to 59.8 % As measured by the Herfindahl index, where a lower value suggests greater diversity, the SC2 scenario would modestly improve the country’s energy diversity index from 0.37 in 2014 to 0.291 in 2030 (Figure 6-11) Among various scenarios, SC2, SC5, and SC6 are expected to improve the energy diversity as a result of increasing investment efficiency in new technology for renewable energy generation over the 2014–2030 period In the SC1 BAU scenario, energy diversity is forecast to increase by 16% over the next 16 years, from 0.367 to 0.426 in 2030 This is equivalent to an average annual increase of 1% Among the scenarios, the energy diversity of both SC1 and SC2 has the highest values, reflecting the lowest levels in term of energy diversity This is the result of continuing with the existing energy policy without promotion of new technologies in the energy supply mix Fossil fuel combined with hydro-power would dominate the total energy mix at up to 90%, against a backdrop of an unlikely increasing share of non-fossil and renewable energy This prospect indicates the absence of strategic planning for technological improvement in energy production and diversification of new energy resources, which would eventually highlight the risk of greater energy consumption by fossil fuels In the SC2–Energy scenario, Vietnam’s energy diversity would decline over the next 16 years, which is equivalent to an average annual decrease of 1.43%, reaching a level of 0.291 on the Herfindahl index in 2030 This is equivalent to an increase of 31.7 % in 2030 compared with the SC1 scenario (0.426) As SC2 has the lowest value of energy diversity among the scenarios, it has the most improved diversity index This improvement is achieved by Vietnam reducing its reliance on fossil fuels by making larger investments in new technology to increase energy generation capacity and promote modern energy, such as solar electricity, and biogas