177 sources is likely to increase by 10% and 12% of the total energy supply in 2030, respectively Figure 6 12 Energy diversity changes 2014 2030 Source Estimates based on modelling developed in this r[.]
177 sources is likely to increase by 10% and 12% of the total energy supply in 2030, respectively Figure 6-12: Energy diversity changes: 2014 - 2030 Source: Estimates based on modelling developed in this research In the SC6 Low Carbon scenario, Vietnam’s energy diversity prospects are expected to improve similarly to that in SC5 For example, in SC5, the Herfindahl index is forecast to decrease over the next 16 years, or an annual average decrease of 0.9%, reaching 0.319 in 2030 This is equivalent to a decrease in 2030 of 25.2 %, 25.6 %, 24.7 % compared with SC1 (0.426), SC3 (0.428), and SC4 (0.423), respectively, and an increase of 9.5 % compared with SC2 (0.291) and SC5 (0.291), respectively The major contribution to this improvement is the promotion of new technologies in energy generation and energy renewable resources, which would eventually lessen Vietnam’s heavy reliance on fossil fuel, especially oil, coal, and gas Moreover, the low-carbon emissions of SC6 would help the country to install more equipment and devices for modern energy consumption, and hence, energy supply and consumption would become more diverse 6.1.5 Energy Import-Dependency In this research, energy import dependency is described as the ratio between the monetary value of Vietnam’s energy imports and its total exports during a certain period This attribute reflects the sensitivity of the country’s balance of payments to energy imports, which indicates that a smaller value underpins a higher capability in energy import payments based on the expansion of energy export activities