184 6 2 1 Food Accessibility Food accessibility depends on the transport system for operating the food supply chain The improvement in the future transport system indicates better physical access to f[.]
184 6.2.1 Food Accessibility Food accessibility depends on the transport system for operating the food supply chain The improvement in the future transport system indicates better physical access to food sources In this research, this relationship is described as the ratio of food supplied (measured in dollars) for each dollar spent on transport service (called the food accessibility index) Figure 6-17 presents the overall prospects of Vietnam’s food accessibility in the different scenarios In the SC1 BAU scenario, the country is likely to experience worsening food accessibility over the next 16 years, decreasing by 0.3%, from 8.7% in 2014 to 8.3% by 2030 (Figure 6-17) This indicates that less food will be accessible for consumers owing to declining transport services, in which an amount of 4.19 billion dollars would be invested over the next 16 years for transport infrastructure Food demand in Vietnam is forecast to increase considerably primarily owing enormous population growth of 0.8% annually to reach more than 103 million people in 2030 Against this backdrop, the absence of a proper food policy to increase total food output and upgrade the food transport system is the major cause of lowering Vietnam’s food accessibility during 2014–2030 Figure 6-17: Food accessibility ratio in scenarios Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research In the SC2 Energy scenario, food accessibility is forecast to decline by 0.4% over the next 16 years, from 8.7% in 2014 to 8.2% by 2030 (Figure 6-17) The food accessibility index in SC2 is the lowest among the scenarios, indicating that less food would be available for consumers than in SC1 and the base year (2014) This worsened food accessibility of SC2 is mainly due to declining transport services, which would invest an