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These scenarios represent different policy foci, for example; sc1 bau (business as usual) scenario (12)

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185 amount of 4 26 billion dollars during the 2014–2030 period Meanwhile, as SC2’s investment policy exclusively focuses on energy, there is no consideration of the inter related impacts on the agricu[.]

185 amount of 4.26 billion dollars during the 2014–2030 period Meanwhile, as SC2’s investment policy exclusively focuses on energy, there is no consideration of the interrelated impacts on the agricultural sector In SC2, there would be more land area and the water resources would deteriorate while considerable agricultural products, such as corn and cassava, would be preserved for maximizing energy output For instance, the development of wind and solar power farms would require huge tracts of agricultural land, and biomass energy would require huge amounts of corn and cassava as the primary energy input; while expanding hydro-power and coal-fired plants along the mountainous and coastal region of the country would tremendously impact the water stream, quality, and eco-system for agricultural development Meanwhile, there has been no special consideration to improve the investment efficiency for both the construction and operation of the existing transport system Therefore, these activities would significantly worsen the food accessibility index of SC2 In the SC3 Food scenario, Vietnam is likely to achieve the highest improvement of the food accessibility index, reaching 10.2% in 2030 This is equivalent to an increase of 23.5% and 25% in 2030 over SC1 and SC2, respectively This growth indicates that more food is accessible to customers owing to expanding better transport services, and requires an increase in investment of up to 4.38 billion dollars in transport infrastructure Furthermore, the food-oriented policy in SC3 is aimed at increasing food output via significant technological changes in the whole food supply chain For instance, manufacturing productivity would increase with mechanization throughout, increasing the share of processed food in diversifying the food supply mix and in the economic value of food Focusing on food sector development of SC3 would result in the highest food output of all scenarios The value of final food output would reach 331.33 million dollars in 2030 In the SC4 Water scenario, food accessibility of the country will decrease marginally by 0.2% over the next 16 years, from 8.7% in 2014 to 8.4% by 2030 (Figure 6-17) Compared with other non-nexus scenarios, SC4, with its water-oriented policy, is expected to have a less negative impact on the food sector This is because of the emphasis on an efficient water irrigation system, which contributes to improved agricultural productivity as well This is equivalent to an increase of 1.5 %, and 2.7 % in 2030 compared with SC1, and SC2, respectively, and a decrease of 17.9 % compared with SC3 Hence, this scenario would have adverse impacts on productivity and the output of the agricultural sector at

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