159 and renewable energy resources, the country’s heavy reliance on fossil energy is likely to increase, which would cause significant environmental problems in the long run In the SC1 BAU scenario, t[.]
159 and renewable energy resources, the country’s heavy reliance on fossil energy is likely to increase, which would cause significant environmental problems in the long run In the SC1 BAU scenario, the socio-economic expansion of Vietnam throughout the period 2014–2030 is likely to result in considerably increasing demand for energy For example, the total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 8.1% per year over the next 16 years, from 177.1 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2014 to 547.7 Mtoe in 2030 (Figure 6-1) This growth, in the absence of alternative renewable energy sources and technologies for power generation, is likely to result in increased dependence on indigenous energy resources, such as coal, oil, and hydro For example, final energy demand for coal is expected to increase between threefold and fourfold over the period, reaching approximately 179.7 Mtoe in 2030 (Table 6-1) Likewise, final demand for oil is projected to more than triple, from 47.5 Mtoe in 2014 to 140.6 Mtoe in 2030 – representing an annual growth rate of 7% Similarly, final demand for hydro-power electricity would increase threefold, from 13.2 Mtoe in 2014 to 46.2 Mtoe in 2030, representing an annual growth rate of 8.1% Overall, these three relatively scarce resources would account for 70.1% of the total increase in final energy demand over 2014–2030 (Table 6-1) Figure 6-1: Energy demand in SC1-BAU Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research In the SC2 Energy scenario, the total final energy demand will increase substantially by the largest amount of all scenarios over 2014–2030, reaching 923.1 Mtoe in 2030 As a result of energy-oriented policy that maximizes energy capacity and supply, there would be a significant improvement in energy affordability and energy accessibility in the SC2 scenario This improvement would eventually accelerate energy consumption in all sectors Furthermore, with the objective of maximizing energy security in SC2, the energy