176 Figure 6 11 Energy diversification changes 2014 2030 Source Estimates based on modelling developed in this research In the SC3 Food scenario, similar to the SC1 BAU scenario, energy diversity woul[.]
176 Figure 6-11: Energy diversification changes: 2014 - 2030 Source: Estimates based on modelling developed in this research In the SC3 Food scenario, similar to the SC1 BAU scenario, energy diversity would worsen considerably For example, energy diversity is expected to increase over the next 16 years, equivalent to an average annual increase of 1% (Figure 6-12), reaching a level of 0.428 on the Herfindahl index in 2030 This is equivalent to a decrease of 0.5 % and 47.1 % in 2030 over the SC1 (0.426), and SC5 (0.291) respectively The main reason for this worsening energy diversity in SC3 is the continuation of existing energy policy, which does not consider technological changes in energy supply Meanwhile, the increasing energy demand would be rapid and large owing to the growth of processed food Therefore, SC3 would be heavily dependent on fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, and would constitute up to 60% of the total energy output in 2030 In the SC5 Energy Food Water nexus scenario, Vietnam is likely to experience greater energy diversity in 2030 For example, in SC5, the Herfindahl index is expected to decrease over the next 16 years with an annual average decrease of 1.4%, reaching a level of 0.291 in 2030 This improvement is equivalent to a decrease in 2030 of 31.8 %, 32.1 %, and 31.3 % compared with SC1 (0.426), SC3 (0.428), and SC4 (0.423), or a similarly when compared with SC2 (0.291) The lower reliance on conventional energy, especially coal, oil, gas, and hydro, is the major reason for the significant improvement of energy diversity in SC5, in which the share of solar electricity and other renewable energy