181 next 16 years, with an annual decrease of 1%, reaching 12 8% in 2030 As shown in Figure 6 14, this is lower 17 1 % in 2030 than the SC2 scenario (10 9%), but 22 3 %, 34 2% %, 27 3 %, and 4 3 % hig[.]
181 next 16 years, with an annual decrease of 1%, reaching 12.8% in 2030 As shown in Figure 6-14, this is lower 17.1 % in 2030 than the SC2 scenario (10.9%), but 22.3 %, 34.2% %, 27.3 %, and 4.3 % higher in 2030 than SC1 (16.5%), SC3 (19.5%), SC4 (17.6%), and SC5 (13.4%), respectively The major contribution to this improvement is the more diverse resources in energy production and consumption, which would eventually lessen Vietnam’s heavy reliance on fossil fuel, especially oil, coal, and gas Furthermore, the goal of the low-carbon pathway is expected to be a great motivation for the country to explore more local modern and environmentally friendly energy resources and technology for both energy production and consumption Therefore, this would enhance the energy import dependency of the country in SC6 6.1.6 Energy Affordability With increasing energy demand for socio-economic progress, increasingly scarce finite energy resources, and lack of appropriate investment in new energy generation technology, the price of energy would inevitably increase Hence, energy affordability expressed as the ratio between final household energy consumption and households (income), could become a matter of concern in the future development of Vietnam There are significant differences in energy affordability among the scenarios over 2014–2030 Compared with the base year (2014), energy affordability would improve in SC2, SC5, and SC6, underpinned by a modern and diverse energy policy approach, but would worsen in SC1, SC3, and SC4 with the continuation of Vietnam’s historic energy policy Figure 6-15: Shares of household energy consumption: 2014 - 2030 Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research