172 significantly improve in SC2, marginally improve in the nexus scenarios of SC5 and SC6, and worsen in the non nexus scenarios of SC1, SC3, and SC4 In the SC1 BAU scenario, energy conversion effici[.]
172 significantly improve in SC2, marginally improve in the nexus scenarios of SC5 and SC6, and worsen in the non-nexus scenarios of SC1, SC3, and SC4 In the SC1 BAU scenario, energy conversion efficiency would decline from 74% in 2014 to 70% in 2030 (Figure 6-9) This is equivalent to an average annual reduction of 0.3% during 2014–2030 With the continuation of the existing trend in socio-economic development of surges in energy demand, the major reasons for the declining of energy conversion efficiency in SC1 BAU would be the absence of new technology applications in energy supply, the introduction of new energy resources, and new installed coal power capacity of up to 30,000 MW Lacking proper demand-side management, especially in the high energy-intensive industries, such as cement, textiles, and steel, would be another cause of the reduced energy efficiency Notwithstanding the Viet Nam National Energy Efficiency Program (VNEEP) established in 2006, which achieved initial success in reducing transmission and distribution losses, a different approach is required to coordinate and integrate energy efficiency programs across other economic sectors rather than within energy sector solely so as to achieve better energy efficiency Figure 6-9: Trends in energy conversion efficiency in Vietnam Source: Estimates based on modelling developed in this research In the SC2 Energy scenario, energy conversion efficiency is expected to increase by 11.7% over the next 16 years, which is equivalent to an average annual increase of 0.9%, reaching 85.8% in 2030 This is equivalent to an increase of 21.2 % in 2030, compared with the SC1 scenario (70%) The improvement is supported by the investment priority focus on technological changes, in which the energy supply mix would be diversified, and the promotion of renewable energy sources, especially solar For example, the share