178 With the absence of diversification in the energy supply mix and delays in introducing new energy generation technology, Vietnam’s energy import dependency is likely to become more severe, primari[.]
178 With the absence of diversification in the energy supply mix and delays in introducing new energy generation technology, Vietnam’s energy import dependency is likely to become more severe, primarily owing to the scarce and finite existing conventional energy resources, such as oil, coal, gas, and hydro On average, Vietnam would spend 15% of its export income on energy imports As shown in Figure 6-13, the energy import dependency index would differ among the various scenarios, indicating Vietnam’s different economic development prospects in the next 16 years There are significant differences in energy import dependency among the energy–food–water nexus and nonnexus scenarios Compared with the base year (2014), while the country is likely to spend less money on energy imports from export income in the nexus- and energy-oriented scenarios (SC2, SC5, and SC6), it would spend more money in non-nexus scenarios (SC1 BAU, SC3, and SC4) Figure 6-13: Energy import-dependency: 2014 - 2030 Source: Estimates based on modelling developed in this research While energy import dependency is a significant indicator for evaluating energy security, it describes the energy dependency of the entire economy of Vietnam As shown in Figure 6-13, the energy import dependency index would differ among various scenarios, indicating the different economic development prospects of Vietnam in the next 16 years In the SC1 BAU scenario, the country would spend 1.5% more than in the base year on energy imports For example, the value of energy imports is expected to increase over the next 16 years, from 14.9% in 2014, to 16.5% in 2030 This is equivalent to an average