167 6 1 2 Energy Intensity Vietnam’s energy intensity, expressed in this research as energy (electricity) consumed per unit of GDP, is forecasted to increase significantly over the next 16 years, at a[.]
167 6.1.2 Energy Intensity Vietnam’s energy intensity, expressed in this research as energy (electricity) consumed per unit of GDP, is forecasted to increase significantly over the next 16 years, at an annual growth rate per annum in the range of 1.7% to 6.39% among the various scenarios, as shown in Table 6-3 This increase reflects the increasing consumption of energy (electricity) per output of GDP In the SC1 BAU scenario, the average energy intensity of Vietnam would increase at 3.6% per year throughout 2014–2030, from 273.6 Toe per million dollars in 2014, to 480.3 Toe per million dollars in 2030 (Table 6-3) This is due to the rapid reduction and scarcity of Vietnam’s oil, coal, and gas reserves amid rapidly increasing energy consumption over the next 16 years This context would obviously lead to more expensive energy in generating economic output and hence, would result in significantly increased primary energy intensity of SC1, as shown in Figure 6-7 Figure 6-7: Energy intensity trends in Vietnam Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research In the SC2 Energy scenario, the assumptions are underlined by the higher priority of shifting the investment focus to increasing energy production capacity in both conventional thermal and renewable energy Therefore, Vietnam is expected to achieve the lowest energy intensity over 2014–2030 in this scenario The energy intensity is forecast to decrease from 273.6 Toe per million dollars of GDP in 2014 to 234.8 Toe per