158 CHAPTER 6 ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS The main objective of this chapter is to present the impacts of alternative scenarios on energy–food–water security and social, economi[.]
158 CHAPTER ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS The main objective of this chapter is to present the impacts of alternative scenarios on energy–food–water security and social, economic, and environmental outcomes for Vietnam These key findings are derived from input–output modelling (as detailed in chapter 4) This chapter is organized into six sections, as follows Sections 6.1, 6.2, and 6.3 present the assessment of impacts on energy security, food security, and water security, respectively Sections 6.4 and 6.5 describe the assessment of economic impacts and social–environmental impacts Finally, Section 6.6 concludes by summarizing the key findings 6.1 Energy Security This section assesses the impacts on energy security of various scenarios for Vietnam The key attributes of energy security, as discussed in Chapter 5, are energy demand, energy intensity, energy conversion efficiency, energy diversity, energy import dependency, and energy affordability 6.1.1 Energy Demand The energy demand for various scenarios is shown in Figures 6-1 and 6-2 and Tables 61 and 6-2 below The analysis projects primary energy demand over the period 2014– 2030 to grow at a rate of between 8% – 12% annually This represents between three and six times the requirements in the base year 2014 A similar increase is projected for final energy demand Major contributors to this increase are population growth, economic growth, industrialization, and modernization of Vietnam Low-cost energy sources, like coal and oil, will continue to dominate the energy demand of the country, accounting for more than 60% of the total primary energy demand This reliance on coal and crude oil would considerably increase if nuclear energy were removed from the Energy Master Plan for Vietnam 2030 Against a backdrop of limited availability of existing hydro, gas,