213 and impacts on socio economic development Hence, it enables cross sector advantages to be leveraged while diminishing hidden risks in each scenario to maximise total economic output In SC5, the mo[.]
213 and impacts on socio-economic development Hence, it enables cross-sector advantages to be leveraged while diminishing hidden risks in each scenario to maximise total economic output In SC5, the most improvements are likely in terms of food, water, and energy sector security Despite this enormous achievement in both economic outcome and ensuring energy–food–water security, there remains in SC5 a concern in the policy arena regarding the environmental impact of high CO2 emissions as a result of such progress In the SC6 Low Carbon scenario, Vietnam is expected to achieve the second-largest economy in terms of total output and growth with total GDP of USD 422.2 billion in 2030, supported by annual GDP growth of 6.9% This result is similar to the significant increases of USD 92.07 billion (27.9%), USD 78.05 billion (22.7%), USD 75.9 billion (22%), and USD 42.17 billion (11.1%) in comparison with SC1, SC2, SC3, and SC4, respectively (Figure 6-29-a) At the same time, SC6 is marginally lower by USD 4.43 billion than SC5 and by 1% in terms of total economic output average annual growth With the aim to lower the carbon pathway and create a more reliable and environmental friendly economic development approach, SC6 is based on the energy–food–water nexus approach of SC5 in combination with the low carbon target Therefore, considering the interdependency among the food, water, and energy sectors, as discussed in SC5, all economic gains and energy–food–water security would remain positively and significantly improved in SC6 However, this scenario requires additional investment for modernising existing technology in energy supply and consumption to minimise CO2 emissions As a result, SC6 with a low carbon pathway, despite an inevitably marginal decline in total GDP, compared with SC5, would be better for the long-term development of the country b) Trade balance In the SC1 BAU scenario, total trade would improve with an increase of 24.3% compared with 2014, reaching USD 32,021.7 million in 2030 The share of total trade in GDP would, therefore, increase up to 9.7%, an additional increase of 8.8% compared with the base year (2014) The largest contribution to the total export value would come from industrial goods, accounting for USD 458,246 million or 63% of the total exports This is followed by the food sector at USD 120 million or 16.5% of the total exports In addition, there would be an increase in energy export growth of USD 103,811 million,