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NGUYEN DUC CUGNG r ? ■ r — *** — LOT ICH KINH TE CUA BAN TIN Dtf BAO BAO DOI VOI CAC HOAT DONG TREN BIEN TAI THANH PHO HAI PHONG CHUVCN NGANH: KINH TT'vA QuAn LV MOI TRUONG THS LUAN VAN THAC SY HNH DOANH VA QUAn Lt Ngudi hudng din khoa hoc: PGS.TS LE THU HOA IIA HOI - SO1U ffl L()I CAM DOAN Toi xin cam doan noi dung bao cao dugc viet la ban than thuc hien, khong chep, cat ghep eac bao cao luan van cua nguOi khae; neu sai toi xin chiu ky luat voi Nha truong Ha Noi, thang 01 nam 2013 Hoc vien Nguyen Dur Cuong LOI CAM 0N Trude tien, toi xin duqc chan bay to ldng biet on den PGS-TS Le Thu Hoa, Truong Khoa Moi truong va Do thi Trong qua trinh thuc hien luan van tot nghiep, toi da nhan duqc su giup rat nhiet tinh cua Co da giup toi rat nhieu viec dinh hudng va giai quyet cac van de co ban Luan van Toi xin gui loi cam on den ThS Nguyen Thi Binh Minh, Pho Cue truong Cue Khi tuqng Thuy van va Bien doi hau da cung cap cac tai lieu, so lieu lien quan den noi dung De tai ma toi da nghien curu Tiep theo, toi xin gui loi cam on den cac dong nghiep co quan da giup toi rat nhiet tinh va cung cap cho toi nhieu thong tin quy gia thuc hien Luan van Cuoi cung, toi xin guri loi cam on den gia dinh va ban be da dong vien, giup toi rat nhieu de toi co the hoan duqc Luan van Thac si Ha Noi, thang 01 nam 2013 Hoc vien Nguyen Dire Circrng MUC LUC • • LOI CAM DOAN LOI CAM ON MUC LUC DANH MUC CAC KI HIEU, CAC TIJ VIET TAT DANH MUC CAC BANG BIEU DANH MUC CAC HINH VE TOM TAT LUAN VAN i PHAN Md DAU CHLONG 1: CO SO LY LUAN VA THUG TIEN VE LOI ICH KINH TE CUA BAN TIN DU* TREN BIEN • BAO BAO DOI VOI CAC HOAT • DONG • 1.1 Khai niem va cac yeu to cua ban tin du* bao bao 1.1.1 Cac khai niem 1.1.2 Cac yeu to cua ban tin du bao bao 1.2 Loi ich kinh te cua ban tin du* bao bao doi voi cac hoat dong tren bien 10 1.2.1 Cac hoat dong tren bien 10 1.2.2 Loi ich cua ban tin du bao bao 11 1.2.3 Danh gia loi ich cua ban tin du bao bao 14 1.2.4 Mot so phuong phap danh gia LIKT cua ban tin du bao 17 1.2.5 Nhan xet, danh gia 20 1.3 Kinh nghiem danh gia loi ich cua ban tin du bao bao doi voi cac hoat dong tren bien tren the gidi 21 1.3.1 Tong quan ve thiet hai bao gay 21 1.3.2 Kinh nghiem danh gia LIKT cua cac nude 23 1.3.3 Mot so phuong phap danh gia da dupe ap dung 25 1.4 Thue te danh gia loi ich cua ban tin du bao bao doi voi cac hoat dong tren bien tai Viet Nam 30 1.4.1 Quy luat chung cua bao anh hudng den Viet Nam .30 1.4.2 Cong tac du bao bao d Viet Nam hien 32 1.4.3 Danh gia lai ich cua ban tin KTTV a Viet Nam 33 1.5 Quy trinh va phirong phap danh gia loi ich cua ban tin dir bao bao doi voi cac hoat dong tren bien tai Hai Phong 38 1.5.1 Quy trinh danh gia 38 1.5.2 Phuong phap danh gia 39 CHUONG 2: DANH GIA LOI ICH KINH TE CUA BAN TIN DU BAO BAO DOI VOI CAC HOAT DONG TREN BlfiN TAI HAI PHONG 42 2.1 Dac diem cua cac hoat dong tren bien tai Hai Phong 42 2.1.1 Gidi thieu chung ve Hai Phong 42 2.1.2 Dac diem cac hoat dong danh bat hai san tren bien tai Hai Phdng 46 2.1.3 Cac rui ro cua hoat dong tren bien lien quan den bao 52 2.2 Thye trang cung cap cac ban tin dy bao bao doi voi cac hoat dong tren bien tai Hai Phong 54 2.2.1 Cong tac bao bao 54 2.2.2 He thong thong tin canh bao, du bao bao 56 2.2.3 He thong cung cap ban tin du bao bao 58 2.2.4 Ha tang he thong thong tin lien lac tren bien va tren dat lien 59 2.2.5 Cong tac tiep nhan va trien khai su dung ban tin du bao bao 63 2.3 Danh gia LIKT cua ban tin dy bao bao doi voi cac hoat dong tren bien tai Hai Phong 64 2.3.1 Phuong phap danh gia 64 2.3.2 S6 lieu 65 2.3.3 Tinh toan lqi ich 72 2.3.4 KSt qua 76 2.3.5 Danh gia, nhan xet 76 CHUONG DINH HU6NG VA CAC GIAI PHAP TANG CUONG LOI ICH KINH TE CUA BAN TIN DU BAO BAO DOI VCH CAC HOAT DONG TREN BIEN TAI HAI PHONG ; .77 3.1 Cac can cir de xuat dinh huong va giai phap 77 3.2 Dinh hirong phat trien cong tac dy bao KTTV .79 Quan diem 80 3.2.2 Muc tieu 81 2.3 Nhiem vu 82 3.3 De xuat 86 3.4 Giai phap nang cao hieu qua cua cac ban tin du bao bao 87 Quan diem 87 3.4.2 Cac giai phap cu the 88 3.4.3 To chuc trien khai, thuc hien: 89 KET LUAN 91 TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 92 PHU LUC Mau phieu dieu tra .94 • < v „ r _ a X z DANH MUC CAC KI HIEU, CAC TV VIET TAT • • • X Ky hieu Dien giai ATND Ap thap nhiet doi BDKH Bien doi hau BVMT Bao ve moi truong DDSH Da dang sinh hoc GDP long san pham quoc noi HST He sinh thai KHCN Khoa hoc cong nghe KTTV Khi tuong Thuy van KT-XH Kinh te - xa hoi LIKT Loi ich kinh te PCLB Phdng chOng lut bao TTDH Thong tin duyen hai UNDP Chuong trinh phat trien Lien hop quOc WMO To chuc Khi tuong the gioi WTA San sang chap nhan WTP San long chi tra XTND Xoay thuan nhiet doi DANH MUC CAC BANG BIEU Bang 1.1: Cau true noi dung cua ban tin du bao bao Bang 1.2: Tdng hop thiet hai bao tai cac chau luc (9/1900-5/2005) 21 Bang 1.3: So nguoi chet va bi anh hudng bao gay d mot so nude 22 Bang 1.4: Tong hop ket qua danh gia LIKT ban tin du bao cua cac nude tren the gidi 26 Bang 1.5: Ket qua danh gia ve LIKT phuc vu KTTV nganh nong lam nghiep theo phuong phap chuyen gia 35 Bang 1.6: Ket qua danh gia giua ty le dau tu cho nganh KTTV va LIKT phuc vu KTTV doi vdi nong nghiep va lam nghiep 36 Bang 2.1: Dien tich va dan so Hai Phong 44 Bang 2.2: So luqng tau thuyen khai thac hai san phan theo nhom cong suat may 48 Bang 2.3: So luqng tau thuyen khai thac hai san phan theo nhom chieu dai ldn nhat49 Bang 2.4: So bao, tan suat va binh quan tren bien Viet Nam tu vi 8°N-22°N (So lieu thong ke tu 1954 den 1993) 52 Bang 2.5: Thong ke thiet hai tau thuyen bao, ATND gay mot vai nam gan day 53 Bang 2.6: Thanh phan/ doi tuqng duqc dieu tra 65 Bang 2.7: So luqng va ty le nguoi theo doi thong tin du bao tren cac phuong tien 66 Bang 2.8: Ty le so nguoi quan tarn den cac noi dung khac cua ban tin du bao 67 Bang 2.9: Chat luqng ban tin du bao 67 Bang 2.10: Muc hop ly cua noi dung ban tin 68 Bang 2.11: Muc hai long doi vdi ban tin 68 Bang 2.12: So tien san long chi tra cho ban tin mot nam 69 Bang 2.13: So nguoi san ldng chi tra theo cac muc 70 Bang 2.14: So tien tiet kiem duqc mot nam 70 Bang 2.15: So nguoi d thi tiet kiem chi phi d cac muc 71 DANH MUC CAC HINH VE Hinh 1.1: Cau true dac trung cua bao Hinh 1.2: Ton that GDP thien tai cua cac nude phat trien so vdi cac nude kem phat trien 23 Hinh 1.3: Bieu tong so cac tran ATND, bao nhiet ddi va bao manh bo vao Viet Nam theo thang cua chuoi so lieu 53 nam (1945 den 1998) 30 Hinh 1.4: Bieu tan suat cac com bao bo vao Viet Nam theo nam 30 Hinh 1.5: Khu vuc anh hudng cua bao theo thdi gian 31 Hinh 2.1: Ban hanh chinh Hai Phong .42 Hinh 2.2: Ty le % so luomg tau theo nhom edng suat may 48 Hinh 2.3: Ty le % so luomg tau thuyen theo nhom chieu dai ldn nhat .49 Hinh 2.4: Co cau nghe khai thac hai san cua Hai Phong va tinh, ven bien ' Bac Bo nam 2010 50 Hinh 2.5: So He thong thong tin canh bao, du bao bao: 57 Hinh 2.6: Ban he thong Dai TTDH Viet Nam 60 Hinh 2.7: So cau hinh phat mang thong tin an toan hang hai qua mang TTDH Viet Nam 61 Hinh 2.8: So vung phuc vu cua he thong Dai THDH Viet Nam 62 Hinh 2.9: So chuyen phat cac ban tin canh bao, du bao bao 63 Hinh 2.10: Bieu ve phan/doi tuomg duqc dieu tra 65 Hinh 2.11: Bieu ve ty le ngudi theo ddi thong tin du bao tren cac phuomg tien 66 Hinh 2.12: Bieu ve chat luomg ban tin du bao 67 Hinh 2.13: Bieu ve muc hai long cua ngudi dan ddi vdi ban tin du bao 68 82 + Du bao tuong thuy van cue ngan (6-12 gio), dac biet la du bao dinh luong mua; canh bao lu quet, nguy co loc, to, voi rong; + Du bao tuong thuy van phuc vu cac nganh kinh te, xa hoi 3.2.2.3 Cong tac xic ly, luu trie tic lieu tuong thuy van - Den nam 2015, tu dong hoa toan bo cong tac thu nhan, kiem tra, chinh ly, phuc vu so lieu tuong thuy van; so hoa 75% tu lieu tuong thuy van tren giay; luu tru so lieu tuong thuy van tren cac he thong thong tin dien tu hien dai - Den nam 2020, so hoa toan bo tu lieu tuong thuy van tren giay, hoan thien ngan hang du lieu tuong thuy van hien dai va gia tang gia tri kinh te - ky thuat cua so lieu tuong thuy van 3.2.2.4 Cung cap thdng tin, die lieu tuong thuy van - Nang cao vai tro thong tin tuong thuy van va bien doi hau ung dung cac linh vuc kinh te xa hoi nham khai thac hop ly cac dieu kien tu nhien thuan lqi, han che nhung thiet hai cac dieu kien bat lqi va bien doi hau gay - Hinh he thong dich vu tuqng thuy van chuyen dung vdi su tham gia cua cac Bq, nganh, dia phuong va cac phan kinh te - Day manh cong tac tuyen truyen, bien kien thuc ve tuqng thuy van va bien doi hau 3.2.3 Nhiem vu De thuc hien cac muc tieu, Bo Tai nguyen va Moi trudng da va dang phoi hop vdi cac Bq, nganh va dia phuong trien khai thuc hien cac nhiem vu sau: 3.2.3.1 Phat trien nganh Khi tuong Thuy van hien dai va ddng bo a) Phat trien va tu dong hod he thdng quan trac tuong thuy van - Phat trien he thong dac tuqng thuy van nhieu phan: mang ludi tuqng thuy van quoc gia co ban, mang ludi chuyen dung (cua cac nganh va dia phuong) va mang ludi quan trac tu nguyen - Bo sung, chinh sua quy hoach mang ludi tram tuqng thuy van co ban he thong quan trac tai nguyen moi trudng qudc gia dua tren cac tieu chuan va 83 quy dinh quoc te; tang mat tram dac theo yeu cau phat trien cua cong nghe dir bao tuong thuy van tien tien r r ~ - Tu dong hoa he thong dac tuong thuy van, ket hop dac tai cho va dac tu xa co truyen phat du lieu tuc thbi - Kien toan dong bo he thong rada thbi tiet cung vdi cac cong nghe xu ly du lieu ket hop vdi phat trien he thong mua mat cao - Thiet lap he thdng tra, kiem tra ky thuat thdng nhat tren toan bo mang ludi quoc gia, mang ludi chuyen dung va mang quan trac tu nguyen - Tang cubng khao sat tuong thuy van, dac biet xay thien tai b) Phat trien va hien dai hod he thdng thdng tin lien lac tuong thuy van - Nang cap mang thong tin tuong toan cau cua Viet Nam; - Thiet lap he thong thong tin tuong thuy van qua ve tinh, bao dam truyen nhan thong tin tuong thuy van hai chieu thong suot moi tinh hudng - Thiet lap mang thdng tin lien lac nude ddng bo, hien dai, da phuong thuc - Hoan thien he thdng cung cap thdng tin du bao tuong thuy van den cac co quan chi dao phong chong thien tai d Trung uong va dia phuong; cac phuong tien thdng tin dai chung - Md them cac kenh thdng tin dich vu tuong thuy van c) Phat trien va hien dai hod cong nghe du bao tuong thuy van - Phat trien, ung dung cac md hinh du bao tuong thuy van cho Viet Nam; nghien cuu xay dung cac md hinh mdi va phuong phap khai thac, su dung san pham du bao sd tri - Tang cubng hop tac quoc te de duoc cung cap bn dinh sb lieu phan tich va du bao cua cac mb hinh toan cau tir cac trung tam du bao ldn tren the gidi - Phat trien cac he thong xu ly va phan tich du lieu, tich hop va dong hoa cac nguon du lieu khac nham nang cao kha nang phan tich va du bao tuong thuy van 84 - Du bao tuong thuy van bien tren co so ket hop mo hinh du bao cac yeu to hai duong va du bao thbi tiet - Du bao cac loai thien tai co nguon goc thuy van tren co sb ung dung nhung phuong phap va cong nghe tien tien; thiet lap thu nghiem mot so he thong tu dong canh bao lu va lu quet d) Kien toan he thdng to chuc du bao - Kien toan he thong to chuc du bao tuong thuy van theo cap: Trung uong, khu vuc va tinh - Hoan thien to chuc Trung tam Du bao Khi tuong Thuy van Trung uong dam bao du nang luc tiep nhan, khai thac, su dung cong nghe hien dai, cung cap thong tin, du lieu du bao tuong thuy van cho cac trung tam khu vuc va trung tam du bao chuyen dung - Kien toan to chuc cac Dai tuong thuy van khu vuc va Trung tam tuong thuy van tinh, dam bao du nang luc thuc hien nhiem vu du bao phuc vu san xuat va phong chdng thien tai b dia phuong - Thiet lap he thong cung cap va dich vu thong tin du bao tuong thuy van co phan cap giua trung uong va dia phuong, phuc vu cong cong va dich vu theo yeu cau f f e) Phat trien he thdng thu nhan, xu ly, luu tru vd cung cap tu lieu tuong thuy van - Xay dung co sb du lieu tuong thuy van va bien doi hau co gia tri phap ly, thdng nhat, chuan hoa theo tieu chuan cua the gidi, ket hop vdi co sd du lieu tai nguyen mdi truong qudc gia Xay dung kho luu tru tu lieu tuong thuy van theo tieu chuan qudc gia - Xay dung he thdng cung cap du lieu tuong thuy van d Trung uong va dia phuong tren co sd cong nghe tin hoc hien dai, dap ung cac yeu cau quan ly nha nudc va dich vu 85 > 3.2.3.2 Tang cwdng hoat dong twang thuy van chuyen nganh, chuyen de a) Tang cwdng thdng tin twang thuy van cong cong va phdng chong thien tai - To chuc he thong cung cap thong tin den cac ddi tuong su dung tu Trung uong den dia phuong hop ly va hieu qua - To chuc dieu tra danh gia ket qua du bao va hieu qua phuc vu tuong thuy van Thu thap va he thong hoa du lieu hau qua cua thien tai va bien ddi hau b) Tang cwang thdng tin twang thuy van dap wng nhu cau kinh te xd hoi - Phat trien mang ludi dac tuong thuy van tren bien, thiet lap cac tram dac tren cac tau bien va gian khoan ngoai khoi phuc vu giao thdng bien, khai thac dau va nguon loi hai san - Phat trien mang ludi quan trac tuong thuy van chuyen dung d cac dia phuong theo dac thu d tung noi de nang cao nang luc theo ddi, du bao, phdng tranh thien tai va dap ung cac yeu cau kinh te xa hoi r r > 3.2.3.3 Day manh cong tac tuyen truyen, bien kien thwc ve KTTV Trong nhung nam gan, day thien tai xay cang ac liet, ma theo WMO thi cd tdi 90% sd cd nguon goc KTTV Cung tu thuc te tren the gidi va nudc cho thay: neu ngudi hieu biet va nam duoc cac thdng tin canh bao cua cac co quan KTTV thi cd the giam bdt dang ke nhung thiet hai ve ngudi va cua Tinh trang chung cua cac nudc vien WMO la ngudi dung chua tu tim den cac du bao cung nhu cac dich vu KTTV, lam cho loi ich cua hoat dong KTTV bi han che Cung theo cac chuyen gia cua WMO thi nguyen nhan chu yeu sau day: - Ngudi dung chua cd hieu biet; - Du bao KTTV chat luong cdn chua thuyet phuc nguoi dung; - Tuyen truyen cdn han che Hoat dong phuc vu KTTV phai dupe cai tien theo hudng dap ung tot nhat cac yeu cau cua quang dai quan chung va quan ly nha nudc nham bao ve tinh mang, 86 tai san cua nhan dan Cac san pham phai phu hop vdi ngudi su dung du la phuc vu cdng cong hay phuc vu rieng Vi du, noi dung ban tin du bao KTTV phai rd rang, dd hieu ddi vdi ngudi nhan Pham vi du bao cung can chi tiet hon vdi cac quy md hep cho cac cdng trinh, dia diem cu the Hinh thuc phuc vu du bao KTTV cung can thay phuong tien thdng tin khac Doi vdi phuc vu, tu cho lam theo nhiem vu phai tang cudng tiep thi va quan he vdi ddi tuqng su dung Viec tang cudng quan he vdi ddi tuqng su dung lam cho phuc vu bam sat hon vdi cac nhu cau cua ngudi dung, tu cai tien va nang cao duqc chat luqng phuc vu Chang han viec bam sat co quan chi huy phong chong lut bao nhu hien da giup cho Trung tam Du bao KTTV Trung uong cung cap kip thdi cac thdng tin can thiet va dieu chinh cac noi dung Nhung yeu cau ve phuc vu co hieu qua nhu chinh xac va kip thdi cua dich vu co the thuoc cdng tac quan ly dieu hanh ben noi bo co quan KTTV, cdn su thoa man yeu cau va su nhan thuc cua ngudi dung se chi co the thuc hien duqc bdi long nhiet tinh va quan he qua lai lien tuc khdng met mdi cua cac nha cung cap dich vu vdi tung nhom ngudi dung khac 3.3 De xuat Vdi cac dinh hudng neu tren, co the neu mot sd de xuat cu the nhu sau: tranh va cung de kip vdi su phat trien cua cdng nghe, cac ban tin bao da duqc cap nhat gan vdi thuc te nhat, giam thdi gian cham pha giua ban tin va thuc te Nhtrng cai tien can duqc dua quy dinh va quy trinh cdng nghe - Du bao KTTV bien can tang cudng them cac yeu to hai duong va du bao chi tiet hon cho cac vung ven bd - Cai tien va nang cao cac hinh thuc phuc vu KTTV: Su phat trien cdng nghe thdng tin cung vdi cac phuong tien thdng tin lien lac da tao dieu kien cho viec tao cac san pham va phan phoi san pham phuc vu tot hon Ngoai cac phuong tien truyen thdng phd bien nhu truyen hinh, phat can ung dung cac phuong tien khac 87 - De giam nhe thiet hai bao gay can chu cong tac canh bao, phong tranh bao va thong bao kip thoi de tau thuyen tim noi tranh va tru bao an toan - Can xay dung he thong cuu ho, cuu nan, mang thong tin chuyen nganh, he thong giam sat tau ca thong qua ve tinh de quan ly va dam bao an toan cho cac hoat dong cua tau ca tren bien - Xay dung cac to doi san xuat tren bien nham thong tin, ho tro kip thoi qua trinh hoat dong tren bien 3.4 Giai phap nang ciao hieu qua cua cac ban tin dir bao bao 3.4.1 Quan diem Phdng chong thien tai la trach nhiem cua ca he thong chinh tri - xa hoi va cua toan dan; Cac giai phap phai co tinh he thong, dong bo, lien nganh, lien vung, tam, diem, phu hop voi tung giai doan va cac quy dinh quoc te; dua tren co so khoa hoc ket hop voi kinh nghiem truyen thdng va kien thuc ban dia; tinh den hieu qua kinh te - xa hoi va cac yeu to rui ro, bat dinh De nang cao LIKT cua cac thong tin du bao KTTV mot mat phai nang cao chat luong va thoi gian co hieu qua cua ban tin du bao, mat khac phai dam bao tinh kip thoi cua cac ban tin du bao, muon vay can co mot he thong thong tin phu song toi moi mien dat nuoc Nguoi dan cung can co duoc cac thiet bi thu nhan tin tuc hieu qua, dac biet la cac phuong tien tham gia giao thong hang hai, ngu dan ngheo ven bien Viec dua cac thong tin du bao va canh bao cac hien tuong thien tai nguy hiem co rat nhieu bien phap khac nhau: nhu phat cac thong tin du bao, canh bao tren cac phuong tien thong tin dai chung, xay dung cac tram phat bao tin hieu canh bao, xay dung he thong cuu ho cuu nan Mat khac, can nang cao nhan thuc cua cong dong ve cac hien tuong KTTV nguy hiem, dac biet kha nang gay tac hai va cac bien phap phdng tranh co hieu qua Viec bien soan cac tai lieu huong dan cach phdng tranh bao tham gia giao thong tren bien, bao bo vao dat lien la rat co hieu qua viec giam thieu cac thiet hai ve nguoi va cua bao gay va can duoc tuyen truyen bang nhung phuong tien va hinh thuc khac Tu viec dua 88 vao cac bai giang cho hoc sinh cac cap den viec xuat ban cac sach bao bien kien thuc, dua cac thong tin tren bao chi, co bao dien tu; viec xay dung cac chuong trinh phu hop doi voi tung loai doi tuong, the loai thong tin 3.4.2 Cac gidi phap cu the r 3.4.2.1 Xay dung va hoan thien he thong van ban phuc vu cong tac quan ly - Xay dung dong bo he thong van ban duoi luat va co che chinh sach phat trien tuong thuy van - Xay dung khung phap ly cho hoat dong cua cac to chuc dich vu tuong thuy van 3.4.2.2 Tang cudng nang luc quan ly nha nudc nganh Khi tuong Thuy van - Hoan thien bo may to chuc gan voi cac giai phap nang cao nang luc can bo, cong chuc, vien chuc va nguoi lao dong nganh Khi tuong Thuy van - Doi moi co che quan ly nha nuoc nganh Khi tuong Thuy van phu hop voi su phat trien cong nghe, thuong mai hoa va xa hoi hoa hoat dong tuong thuy van - To chuc he thong tra, kiem tra thuc thi cac quy dinh cua Nha nuoc cac hoat dong tuong thuy van va bien doi hau 3.4.2.3 TO chuc hoat dong dich vu tuong thuy van theo hudng thuong mai hoa va xa hoi hoa - To chuc, sap xep hoat dong dich vu d cac don vi nghiep vu nham thong nhat viec cung cap dich vu tuong thuy van tu trung uong den dia phuong theo huong thuong mai hoa - Xay dung co che va to chuc thuc hien xa hoi hoa hoat dong tuong thuy van 9 > 3.4.2.4 Day manh nghien cuu khoa hoc va phat trien cong nghe ve tuong thuy van - Tang cuong cac nghien cuu ung dung cong nghe hien dai ve du bao, dac, chinh ly du lieu, tinh toan tuong thuy van; danh gia tai nguyen nuoc, tai nguyen hau, bien doi hau va tac dong cua bien doi hau - Tich cuc tham gia nghien cuu nhung van de toan cau ve tuong thuy van va bien doi hau 89 > 3.4.2.5 Phat trien nguon nhan lire - Xay dung chinh sach thu hut, dai ngo va su dung nguon nhan luc trinh cao Nha nudc danh mot luong hoc bong thoa dang de dao tao nhan luc tuong thuy van tai cac nudc co trinh khoa hoc cong nghe tien tien - Hoan thien quy hoach va tang cudng nang luc cac co so dao tao ve tuong thuy van theo hudng da dang hoa loai hinh dao tao gan vdi doi mdi chuong trinh, noi dung, phuong phap phu hop vdi xu hudng phat trien cong nghe mdi - Doi mdi noi dung dao tao ve su dung va khai thac thong tin tuong thuy van va bien doi hau nhung nganh dao tao co lien quan - Xay dung ke hoach dao tao, boi duong can bo tuong thuy van, chu doi ngu can bo chuyen nganh dap ung yeu cau khai thac va su dung hieu qua cac thiet bi va cong nghe hien dai 3.4.2.6 Huy dong nguon tai ehinh - Tang dau tu tu ngan sach nha nudc; huy dong cac nguon von thong qua tai tro, vien tro va cac hinh thuc khac - Tang cudng nguon thu tu cac hoat dong thuong mai tuong thuy van 3.4.2.7 Hop tae quoe te - Tang cudng hoat dong vdi tu cach nudc vien To chuc Khi tuong the gidi va cac to chuc quoc te khac co lien quan ma Viet Nam tham gia - Khai thac hieu qua quan he quoc te song phuong va da phuong ve tuong thuy van va bien doi hau 3.4.3 Td chuc trien khai, thuc hien: 3.4.3.1 Bo Tai nguyen va Moi trudng: - To chuc, chi dao thuc hien cac noi dung cua Chien luoc; hudng dan cac Bo, nganh, dia phuong can cu chuc nang, nhiem vu duoc giao xay dung va to chuc thuc hien cac chuong trinh, ke hoach, de an, du an, bao dam phu hop vdi cac muc tieu, noi dung, giai phap cua Chien luoc - Chu tri, phoi hop vdi cac Bo, nganh, dia phuong lien quan soat, thong ke, danh gia, sap xep danh muc de an, du an uu tien dau tu 90 - Chu tri, phoi hap vdi cac Bo, nganh, dia phuong va cac co quan chuc nang co lien quan tra, kiem tra viec thuc hien Chien luac nay; dinh ky hang nam, nam so ket, tong ket, danh gia, rut kinh nghiem thuc hien Chien luac; trinh Thu tudng Chinh phu quyet dinh dieu chinh muc tieu noi dung Chien luac trudng hap can thiet 3.4.1.2 Bo Ke hoach va Dau tu, Bo Tai chinh Can doi, bo tri von va hudng dan su dung kinh phi tu nguon ngan sach nha nudc nam va hang nam de thuc hien cac noi dung 3.4.1.3 Bo Tai chinh chu tri, phoi hop vdi Bo Noi vu, Bo Tai nguyen va Moi truong Hoan thien co che, chinh sach tai chinh va co che quan ly tai chinh linh vuc tuang thuy van theo hudng giao quyen tu chu, tu chiu trach nhiem ve thuc hien nhiem vu, to chuc bo may, bien che va tai chinh cho cac don vi su nghiep cong thuc hien nhiem vu nha nudc giao ve tuang thuy van Xay dung cac chinh sach khuyen khich cac phan kinh te tham gia cac hoat dong dich vu tuang thuy van 3.4.1.4 Cac Bo, nganh, diaphucmg Phoi hop vdi Bo Tai nguyen va Moi trudng de xuat, to chuc thuc hien cac de an, du an phu hap vdi muc tieu, nhiem vu, giai phap 91 KET LUAN Viec danh gia LIKT cua ban tin du bao bao mot each dinh luong budc dau duoc hoan dong thdi vdi viec tong quan, phan tich cac khai niem, phuong phap va cac van de lien quan khac da tao co so de co the tien hanh nhung budc danh gia tiep theo mot cach day du hon Viec luong hoa duoc cac dong gop cua nganh KTTV (trong co ban tin du bao bao) nham muc dich nang cao vai trd, vi the cua nganh, phan nao phan anh loi ich to ldn ma nganh KTTV dem lai so vdi muc dau tu cua Nha nudc va ngudi su dung dich vu san long chi tra, de dau tu lai cho viec phat trien va hien dai hoa nganh va viec phuc vu cang tot hon Toan bo noi dung, cong viec de cuong dat da duoc thuc hien Day la de tai lien quan den kinh te - hang hoa tuong thuy van nen tac gia phai tim toi, nghien cuu tu cac van de ve phuong phap luan, viec tim kiem phuong phap phu hop cho linh vuc danh gia va kho khan nhat la viec thu thap so lieu Chinh vi nhung kho khan ma phuong phap su dung cdn chu yeu la dieu tra thong qua ngudi dung mdi chi mang tinh udc luong Thuc te, tren the gidi, cac nghien cuu tuong tu cung chi dua cac so udc tinh, chua the dua so lieu chinh xac Tuy nhien, vdi phuong phap tuong doi phu hop, so lieu thong ke chinh xac, ket qua budc dau co the chap nhan duoc va da phan nao phan anh loi ich to ldn ma nganh tuong thuy van dem lai so vdi muc dau tu bang nhung so cu the Theo phuong phap xac dinh tin cay nhu da trinh bay tai Muc 1.5, vdi muc tin cay 95%, LIKT cua ban tin du bao bao nam khoang: 13,8 - 15,5 ty dong doi vdi phuong phap san ldng chi tra va 17,7 - 20,5 ty dong doi vdi phuong phap Tiet kiem chi phi Qua danh gia loi ich cua ban tin du bao bao, thi viec danh gia duoc dinh luong ket qua cua loi ich khong phai la muc dich cuoi cung, ma can thong qua viec danh gia de nhan biet duoc tinh quan cua viec phuc vu KTTV cong cong, tim hieu duoc nhung y kien va nhung yeu cau cua cong chung doi vdi cong tac phuc vu tuong Tim nhung mat cdn yeu kem cua cong tac tuong de tung budc cai tien, khac phuc va hoan thien, nang cao loi ich phuc vu tuong cong cong, dap ung cang tot hon nhung yeu cau cua xa hoi 92 TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Anaman, K.A and Lellyett, S.C., 1996: Contingent valuation study of the public weather services in the Sydney metropolitan area, Economic Papers, 15 (3), 64 - 77 Chapman, R., 1992: Benefit-Cost Analysis for the Modernization and Associated Restructuring of the National Weather Service, National Institute of Standards and Technology, US Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 105pp Comford, S.G., 2002: Human and economic impacts of weather events in 2001, WMO Bulletin, 51 (3) Johnson, S.R and Holt, M.T., 1997: The value of weather information, In R W Katz and A H Murphy (eds), Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,U.K Katz, R.w and Murphy, A.H., 1997: Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K Kite - Powell, H.L and Solow, A.R., 1994: A Bayesian approach to estimating benefits of improved forecasts, Meteorological Applications, (4): 351-354 Leigh R J., 1994: Economic evaluation of terminal aerodrome forecasts for Sydney airport, Australia WMO/TD-No 630 Maunder W J., 1994: Socio-economic benefits of climate forecasts: A report of the GCOS Working Group WMO/TD-No 630 Mitchell, R and Carson, R., 1989: Using Surveys to Value Public Goods: The Contingent Valuation Method, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 10 Nguyen Duc Ngu, 2002: Tac dong cua ENSO den thdi tiet, hau, moi truong va kinh te-xa hoi d Viet Nam Bao cao tong ket de tai NCKH doc lap cap NN, Ha noi, 2002 11 Nguyen Van Tuyen, 1987: Vein de phuc vu loi l'ch kinh te cua nganh KTTV Thong tin KHKT KTTV, 1987, No 12 Nha xuat ban KTTV, 1998: Phuong phap phan tich danh gia loi ich phuc vu KTTV d Trung quoc (do Tien si Duong Van Kham dich) 93 13 Stewart, T.R., 1997: Forecast value: descriptive decision studies, In R.W Katz and A H Murphy (eds), Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K 14 Thompson J.C., Brier G.W., 1955: The economic utility of weather forecasts MWR, 1955, No 103 15 Weiher, R.F., 1999: Improving El Nino Forecasting: The Potential Economic Benefits, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Policy and Strategic Planing Washington DC 16 Wilhite, D.A, Wood, D.A and Meyer, S.J., 1987: Climate - related impacts in the United States during the 1982 - 83 El Nino In M Glantz., R Katz and M Krentz (eds), The Societal Impacts Associated with the 1982 - 83 Worldwide Climate Anaomalies, National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 17 WMO.TD, 1974: Applications of meteorology to economic and social development 18 WMO-No 733, 1990: Economic and social benefits of meteorological and hydrological services Proceeding of the Technical Conference, Geneva, 26 - 30 March 1990 19 WMO/TD- No 1023, 2000: Guidelines on performance assessment of public weather services 20 WMO/TD-No 1292, 2005: Guidlines on intergrating severe weather warnings into disaster risks management 21 WMO-No 993, 2006: Preventing and mitigating natural disaster PHU LUC Mau phieu dieu tra Phieu dieu tra Lai ich cua ban tin du bao bao doi voi cac hoat dong tren bien (phuong phap San long chi tra/Tiet kiem chi phi) -\ r r Doi tuong dieu tra (danh dau vao ngoac): (l) Cong an ( ) (2) Bien phong ( ) (6) Luc luong TKCN ( ) ( ) (3) Ngu dan (10) Can bo xa, phudng ( ) (11) Canh sat bien ( ) (12) Nhan vien Dai TTDH ( ) •7 (5) Bo doi ( ) (8) To, doi, HTX danh bat ca xa bd () (7) Phong vien () (9) Nhan vien y te ( ) (4) Thuy thu ( ) (13) Thanh phan khac () r • Q Q De tim hieu lui ich cua ban tin du bao bao doi voi cac hoat dong tren bien, xin ban hay tra ldi giup cac cau hoi duoi day (dien so lan hoac danh dau vao ngoac): Ban xem va nghe du bao mdi bao nhieu lan? (1) Xem vo tuyen: Dai trung uong ( ) Dai tinh ( ) Dai dia phuong ( ) : Dai trung uong ( ) Dai tinh ( ) Dai dia phuong ( ) (2) Nghe dai (3) Dien thoai 1080 ( ) (4) Cac phuong tien khac ( ) Theo ban thdi gian nao xem hoac nghe chuong trinh du bao la tot nhat? (1) Sang som ( ) (2) Buoi sang trudc di lam ( ) (3) Buoi trua ( ) (4) Buoi toi (7 gid 30) (6) Thdi gian khac ( ) (5) Buoi dem (10-12 gid) ( ) Theo ban hien du bao chinh xac a muc nao? (1) Chinh xac ( ) (2) Co ban la chinh xac ( ) (3) Khong on dinh () (4) Thudng khong chinh xac ( ) Theo ban hien ban tin du bao co lam ban hai ldng khdng? (1) Hai long ( ) (2) Co ban hai long () (3) Binh thudng ( ) (4) Khong hai long ( ) Ban thay thich thu nhat a noi dung nao ban tin du bao cua dai truyen hinh? (1) Du bao thdi tiet tai khu vuc ban ( ) (2) Canh bao bao va trieu ( ) (3) Du bao hinh the thdd tiet ( ( (4) Du bao thdd t(et c ac tren the gioi (( (5) Du bao thdi tiet cac tdnnd ldn nudc ( ) (6) Du bao mua tren dien rong ( ) (7) anh may ve tihd ( ) Ban danh gia the nao ve noi dung cua ban tin du bao tren dai truyen hinh va dai phat thanh? (1) Noi dung hop ly () (2) Nen tang them noi dung ( ) (3) Noi dung qua nhieu nen giam bot ( ) (4) Noi dung qua chi tiet nen gon hon ( ) Theo ban ban tin du bao da giup ban hoac gia dinh ban tiet kiem duoc bao nhieu tien hang nam? (1) 50.000 d ( ) (2) 51.000-70.000 d () (3) 71.000-100.000 d ( ) (4) 101.000-140.000 d ( ) (5) 141.000-200.000 d ( ) (6) Tren 200.000 d ( ) Ban tin dir bao bao la khdng thu tien Neu nhir thu tien thi theo ban hang nam nop bao nhieu tien la hop ly? (1) 50.000 d ( ) (2) 51.000-70.000 d () (3) 71.000-100.000 d ( ) (4) 101.000-140.000 d ( ) (5) 141.000-200.000 d ( ) (6) Tren 200.000 d ( ) Ban xem va nghe dir bao thudng nham muc dich gi? 10 Ban co y kien va yeu cau gi ve phuc vu dir bao bao? Ngay thdng nam 2012 Ngudi danh gia (Ky, ghi ro ho ten va dia chi) PHU LUC Bieu • Table DAN S6 CHIA THEO THANH THI/NdNG THON, Gl6l TINH VADO'N V| HANH CHiNH CAP HUYEN, 1/4/2009 POPULATION BY UR8AN/RURAL RESIDENCE, SEX AND DISTRICT, 1/4/2009 Dan vi tinh: Ngiedi - Unit: Persons 31 HA1PHdNG Chung Total 837 173 Nam Male Nong thon - Rural Thanh thi - Urban Ting s6 - Total Bern vj hanh chinh Administration Ma so Code Nu Female Nir Female Nam Male Chung Total Chung Total 427 929 910 431 926 742 846 191 418 262 51 301 101 625 50 324 51 301 Nu Female Nam Male 990 982 492 169 498 813 Qu$n • Quarter Hong Bang 101 625 50 324 304 Quan - Quarter Ngd Quyen 164 612 80 585 84 027 164 612 80 585 84 027 305 Qu$n - Quarter L6 Chan 209 618 102 939 106 679 209 618 102 939 106 679 306 Quan - Quarter Hai An 103 267 52 541 50 726 103 267 52 541 50 726 307 Quan ■ Quarter Kien An 97 403 48 205 49 198 97 403 48 205 49 198 308 Quan • Quarter Do Scrn 44 514 21 950 22 564 44 514 21 950 22 564 309 Quan - Quarter Duong Kinh 48 700 23 895 24 805 48 700 23 895 24 805 311 Huy&n - District Thuy Nguyen 303 094 152 976 150 118 15 771 016 755 287 323 144 960 142 363 312 Huyen - District An Duong 160 751 79 583 81 168 924 397 527 153 827 76 186 77 641 313 Huyen - District An Lao 132316 65 228 67 088 12 553 053 6500 119 763 59 175 60 588 314 Huy^n • District Kien Thuy 126 324 62 658 63 666 628 796 832 122 696 60 862 61 834 315 Huyen - District Tien Lang 141 288 69 873 71 415 12 928 336 592 128 360 63 537 64 823 316 Huyen - District VTnh Bao 173 083 84 135 88 948 418 535 883 165 665 80 600 85 065 317 Huyen - District Cat Hai 29 676 15 029 14 647 17 230 690 540 12 446 339 107 318 Huyen - District Bech Long Vi 902 510 392 - * 902 510 392 303 (Nguon: Niem giam thdng ke nam 2009)