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^ l e '''' N BOI KHI HflU Vfl PHÎ T TRISN B€N VUNG ITO''''C LUONG THIET HAI, DANH GIA MlTC DO NHAN THlfC VA KHA NANG UNG PHO CUA HO GIA DINH VOI BIEN DOI KHi HAU TAI TINH BEN TRE PGS TS Nguyen Thj Kim Anh,[.]
^ l e ' N BOI KHI HflU Vfl PHI^T TRISN B€N VUNG ITO'C LUONG THIET HAI, DANH GIA MlTC DO NHAN THlfC VA KHA NANG UNG PHO CUA HO GIA DINH VOI BIEN DOI KHi HAU TAI TINH BEN TRE PGS.TS Nguyen Thj Kim Anh, Th.s Biii Nguyen Phiic Thien Chuwng, Hd Xu3n Hurdng, Lc Thj Huyen Trang Dgi hgc Nha Trang Nghien cuu ve biin ddi hdu tgi Bin Ti-e dugc ihyc hiin nhdm ddnh gid muc dg de b\ tdn thuang, lugng gid nhung thiit hgi Idc dgng cua bien ddi hgu, ddnh gid nhgn thuc cua ngu&i ddn khd ndng dii phd cua hg gia dinh vd tlm cde gidi phdp thich ung cho cgng ddng thdng qua cdc cuge ihdo ludn nhdm lgp Irung vd so lieu cua cuge diiu tra ddi v&i 300 hg gia dinh tgi ba huyin ven biin tinh Bin Tre Nghien cuu ndy cdn bao gdm phdn phdn tich kinh ti mgt sd chien hrgc thich ung v&i bien ddi khl hgu cua dfa phuang Trong phgm vi bdi bdo ndy, chung tdi chi di cgp din phdn ddnh gid mirc dg di bj tdn thuang tdc dgng cua bien ddi hgu vd nu&c biin ddng; lugng gid thiit hgi den sinh ke cgng ddng bdo, xdm nhgp mgn vd sgt Id ddi; ddnh gid muc dg nhgn thirc cua ngu&i ddn vd khd ndng doi phd cua hg gia dinh Tir khoa: Biln ddi hgu, mue dg dl bj tdn thuang, lugng gid thipt hgi, mire dp nhgn thire, co che doi phd, Ben Tre Dat van de Bien ddi hgu (viet tdt la BDKH) ma trudc hit Id su ndng len toan cdu va mye nude biln dang, la mdt nliirng thach thire ldn nhat ddi vdi nhan logi thi ky 21 Cac bdng chung khoa hgc hipn da chung rninh rdng biln ddi hgu dnh hudng ndng nl nhit din san xudt ndng nghipp, kinh tl ndng thdn, ngudi ngheo, mdi trudng vd an ninh luang thyc tren toan the gidi (Oxfam 2008; FAO 2008) Thien tai vd cac hipn tugng hgu cyc doan khae dang gia tdng d hdu hit cde nai tren trdi dat Nhlpt dd, su xam nhap mdn sat Id dk va mye nude biln trung binh todn cdu tilp tye tdng nhanh va dang Id mdi lo nggi cua hAu hit cdc qude gia tren thi gidi rv- , , - - i •-• J ., , Da eo nhieu nghien cuu tren the gidi danh eid tde - ., , u - i - j L-x ^fi-,, dpng va lugng gia nhung thipt hgi bien doi hau gdy Nhitng tde dpng vd thipt hgi kinh tl ddng rupng vd ao nudi bj nhilm mdn dd dugc bdo cao nhieu nghien cuu (vi dy, Saidy va Yusuf Azis 2009; Saidy, Purnomo vd Osaki 2004; Aseh va Woperies2001; Khan vd cgng sy 1997) Hipn tugng ' sgt Id ddt Idm giam di8n tich dat san xuat ndng nghipp va dat nhd d, cung nhu gay thipt hgi din tai san ciia cgng ddng dan cu vd eae cdng trinh ea sd hg tang; vd thiet hgi hien tugng xdi mdn bd biln gay cung da dugc bdo eao nhilu nghien cuu (Jaimie Kim, Moises va Rowena 2009) Nhilu nghien euru gan ddy cho thdy rdng Vipt Nam Id mpt nhitng qudc gia de bj tdn thuang nhat tren the gidi sy thay ddi hgu (Oxfam 2008) Nhirng thay ddi ddn dan nhu myc nude bien ddng, nhipt dg tdng len, sy gia tdng eua cac hipn tugng thdi tilt khde nghipt nhu hgn hdn va cdc bdo mgnh dugc dy doan se xay vd cd tdc dgng ^g^iem trgng ddi vdi eon ngudi vd nin kinh tl cua yjg, vj ^^"^ * P'^'^ """ ^'^* ^ ^ ' ^^" "^^ '^ ''""^ '*''" ^"]^ ^""^^^ "^"S "^ '^"^ ^^"^ '^^'' ^^^ h?"" ^^^ ^° ^'^" ^°' ^^'^ ^^^ ^^\ '^ ^^"S' ^^^ Tre^ndm so nhitng khu vyc bj tdn thuang eao nhat biln ddi ,.,, hgu d Ddng Nam A(EEPSEA, 2010) "* v-ui^i oi.i-v, ^MI^, ^^^^ P*'^* ^^ nhimg thyc tiln tren, nghien cuu ndy ^^^^ ^^VC hipn nhdm danh gia mire dl bj tdn thuang, lupmg gid nhitng thipt hgi biln ddi hgu vd myc nude biln dang, ddnh gid mirc dg nhan thdc ciia ngudi dan va kha ndng iimg phd cua hg gia dinh vdi bien ddi hgu tgi tinh Bin Tre Ket qua nghien cuu sg giup cho cde nhd hoach djnh chinh sdeh tgi dja phuang nhgn thuc rd han nhitng tdc dgng va eiing vdi cgng ddng tim nhirng gidi phap thich irng vdi biln ddi hgu kiiiliteJ'liat trien SIGN DOI KHI HflU Vfi PHRT TRIGN S€N VI'01^9 Boi ttrgrng, pham vi va phinmg phap nghien cihi 2.1 Boi tugng vd phym vi nghiin cicu Ddi tugng nghien cuu la tde dgng va mirc dg nhgn thuc vd kha nang dng phd cua h,d gia dinh vdi bien ddi hdu Pham vi nghien cuu: Cdc hg gia dinh tgi ndm xa ven biln (Thira Ddc, An ThCiy; An Dien, Giao Thanh va Tan Phong) ciia ba huypn (Binh Dgi, Ba Tri vd Thgnh Phu) thuge tinh Ben Tre Dilu tra hg gia dinh dugc tiln hanh ndm 2011 va ddnh gid thipt hai biln ddi h^u gay eho hg gia dinh Id 10 ndm td 2001 din 2010 2.2, Phuang phdp nghien cu-u De ddnh gid tae dgng ciia biln ddi hgu md cy thi Id cde hipn tugng: bao, lij lyt, xam nhgp m$n, nude bien vd trilu cudng dang cao gay thipt hgi len tdi sdn, ea sd hg tang, san pham ndng nghipp, san phdm nudi trdng thuy sdn, ddnh bdt thuy sdn va su dyng ddt cua ngudi dan, nghien euu ndy nhdm tdc gid su dyng ngudn dit lipu thir cap vd so cap dugc thu thdp td cdc cuge thao ludn nhdm tap trung (Focus Group Discussions FGDs) va dilu tra hg gia dinh Dit lieu thu cdp vl ndng suat ndng nghipp vd gid cd ciia san pham ndng nghipp dugc cung cap tu Sd Ndng nghiep vd PTNT Ben Tre va Nien giam thdng ke Bin Tre Dit lieu thir edp ve thiet hgi eae hien tugng hgu duge eung edp tu Vdn phdng Chucmg trinh myc tieu qudc gia ung phd vdi biln ddi khl hau tinh Ben Tre Dit lipu sa cap dugc thu thdp tir eugc dieu tra 300 hg gia dinh duge ma hda bdi Microsoft Access 2010, vd dugc phdn tich bdi phdn mlm Microsoft Excel 2010 Ba eugc thdo lugn nhdm tgp trung (FGDs) dugc tien hdnh thdng va 8/2011 FGD ldn thir nhat dugc thyc hipn vdi dai dipn cde co quan ehinh quyen cap tinh, ey thi la UBND tinh Ben Tre, Vdn phdng Chuang trinh mye tieu qude gia irng phd vdi bien ddi hau tirfh Ben Tre, Sd Ndng nghipp va PTNT, Sd Tdi Nguyen vd Mdi trudng, Sd Khoa hgc va Cdng nghp, Sd Kl hogch vd Dau tu va Sd Tdi chinh vdo thang 7/2011 Dya tren kit qud cua FGD Ian thur nhat, FGD ldn thir hai tilp tyc dugc thye hipn vao dau thang 8/2011 tgi huypn Binh Dgi vdi thdnh phan tham gia la lanh dgo UBND huypn Binh Dgi, lanh dgo cdc'phdng ban huyen Binh Dgi gdm: phdng Ndng nghipp vd PTNT, phdng Tai nguyen vd Mdi trudng va dai dipn lanh dgo eua xd kiitlityiiilttrii'n Thira Dire va Thdi Thudn NhChig ngudi tham gia da dugc huypn Binh Dgi tuyIn chgn cd am hiiu vl ndng nghipp, dd tirng cpng tde nghidn edu va hiiu biet vl BDKH d Bin Tre FGD thd ba ed sy tham dy cua 12 ndng dan td cdc xa khde d huypn Binh Dgi Nh&ng ngudi tham gia dugc tuyIn chgn thdng qua ede edn bg phy trdeh ndng nghipp vd nudi thiiy sdn xd Cd nhitng dgi dipn tir nhitng viing nudi trdng thiiy sdn va sdn xuat ndng nghipp ldn nhat huypn FGDs ed ba myc dich: (i) Mpt la de Ihdng bao cho ehinh quyen dja phuong nhirng mye tieu eiia nghien cuu (il) FGDs eung cap mpt dien ddn de thdo lugn cdc bilu hi$n, thipt hgi tae dgng cua bien ddi hgu vd muc nude biln dang dang xdy d tinh Ben Tre (iii) Ba la giiip cho nhdm nghien cuu hoan thipn bang cau hdi dilu tra hp gia dinh dl thu thgp dCt lipu phyc vy cho nghien cuu djnh lugng Tren ca sd ba eugc FGDs cung nhu tham khao bdng cau hdi dieu tra hg gia dinh dugc thilt kl bdi Trung tam Nghi cd thi gidi (Worldflsh 2011), nhdm nghien ciru da hodn thipn bdng cau hdi cho nghien euu ndy vd tien hanh dilu tra thu 25 hg gia dinh tgi xd Thira Dde, Thdi Thu^n vd Thgnh Trj huyen Binh Dgi vd 10 hg gia dinh tai xa An Diln huyen Thgnh Phu vao thdng 9/2011 Ba huypn ven biln la Binh Dai, Thgnh Phii vd Ba Tri dugc chpn Idm dja diem nghien ciru vi day Id nhitng noi chju tae dgng ro net va ngng nl nhat eiia biln ddi hgu Tren ba huypn ndy, ndra xa (Thira Dire, An Thiiy, An Diln, Giao Thgnh va Tdn Phong) dugc ehgn de tiln hanh dilu tra hd gia dinh vdi sd mdu Id 300 Viec lya chgn xa dua vao hai tieu eht Tieu chi thd nhat vd quan nhat la xa duge ehgn phai ehju tdc dpng ro rpt ciia bien ddi hdu Tieu ehi thd hai Id muc dp hgp tdc, giup dd cua chinh quyen xd Trudc thye hipn cuge phdng van, nhdm nghien ciru ldm vipe vdi UBND cdc xa nai thyc hien cuge dieu tra vd cac trudng ap de nhd sy hgp tac vd hd trg eua hg Nghien ciru sir dyng phuang phdp chgn mdu thugn tien Tgi mdi xa dugc chpn nghien cuu, vipe dieu tra bao phu het tat cd ede dp de mau thu dugc cd the dgi dipn cho egng ddng ddn cu khu vyc Nhihig hg gia dinh duge chpn dya vao co edu nghi nghiep eiia xd, dd bao gdm ndng nghiep, nudi trdng thuy san vd ddnh bdt thuy sdn Thdi gian phdng van mdi hg gia dinh la I- 1,5 gid Thdng ke sd ngudi tra Idi theo huyen, xa vd dp 39 ?ieN 001 KHi HflU Vfl PHflT TRIGN B€N VONG Bang 1: So hg gia dinh tra Idi Ihco ap, xa va huypn Bang 2: Thong lin nhan khku hgc mau nghien cu-u 54 rhSngtin S6 ngiriri tra i6i sd firrjmg TT Tu6i (nam) xa Thira Dilc n/a 47 Trung binh Ap ThCra Li?i n/a 20 Nh6 nhit Ap Th(ra Long 85 n/a L6n nhdt Ap Thira Thanh Gi6i tfnh Ap Thira Tien 63,67 191 Nam Ap Thira Trunti 36.33 109 NO xa An Thiry Giao dvc Ap An Binh 7,00 21 KhOng di hoc Ap An L(?i 51,67 155 Cap Ap An Thanh 29.67 89 Cap Ap An Thdi 34 11.33 CSp3 AP An Thuan 0.33 Cao danrr dai hoc trd ten xa An Dien nghiQp chfnh Nghe Ap An Di^n None nghiep 148 Ap Giane Ha Nirdf trSng thiiy sdn 146 xa Giao Thanh 52 Danh bat Ap Giao Binh Ngudn: Diiu tra cua nhdm ldc gid Ap Giao Hi§p bat thudng Tir ndm 1990 den ndm 2005, nhipt dg Ap Giao H6a trung binh d Ben Tre cd xu thi tdng (xdp xi 0,3^C) Ap Giao L(?i Chenh Ipch nhipt dp giita ngdy va dem edng Ap Giao Tan Idn; thay ddi lugng mua vd tan suat mua, tir ndm xa TSn Phong Ap Thanh 1990 den nam 2006, lugng mua d Ben Tre cd xu the Tons tang, vdng 16 ndm lugng mua trung binh tdng Ngudn: Dieu tra cua nhdm tdc gid xap xi 7,5 mm, tue Id mdi ndm tang xap xi 0,5mm duge the hien nhu Bdng Trong sd 300 ngudi trd Thdng ke td ndm 1961- 2011, cd 12 can bao dnh Idi, cd 222 ngudi Id chii hg, c^n Iai 78 ngudi Id hudng tryc tiep din Ben Tre vdi dien hinh Id eon vg/chdng/con cua chu hg Tong so nhdn khau bao sd (Linda - 1997) vd eon bao sd (Durian 2006) Thdng ke tu ndm 1996 din 2011, tren dja ban 300 hg gia dinh dieu tra la 1.361 ngudi Tudi trung binh ciia nhitng ngudi trd Idi Id 47 tinh Ben Tre xdy khoang dgt lu vd cung tir ndm tuoi Ngudi trd Idi tre nhat Id 20 tuoi ngudi 1995- 2011 dd xdy nhieu trgn sgt Id gdy thipt hgi trd Idi gid nhat id 85 tudi (chi cd chu hg gia dinh Idn ve tdi san, cdng trinh ca sd hg tang va mat dat hode ngudi trd Idi tir 18 tudi trd Ien duge lya chgn) sdn xuat ndng nghipp, nudi trdng thuy san cua ngudi Trong tdng sd, 63,67% ngudi trd Idi la nam edn ddn Tu ndm 1995 den nay, hipn tugng xam nhdp m§n ngdy cdng tdng, vd xu hudng diln cdng 36,33% ngudi la nir gay gdt han (Sd Ndng nghipp & PTNT tinh Bin Tre, Nghi nghipp ehinh eiia nhdng hg gia dinh dilu 2011) tra Id ndng nhipp, nudi trdng thuy sdn So lipu dieu tra trinh dp hge van cho thay hau hit nhitng ngudi FGDs cung chi rdng, ba huypn ven biln Binh trd Idi chi hge cap I (51,67%) dd cd tdi 7% Dgi, Thgnh Phu vd Ba Tri Id nhitng huypn bj dnh khdng di hgc 29,67% ngudi tra Idi hge cap vd hudng n§ng ne nhat tac dgng eiia biln ddi 11,33% hge cap 3, chi cd I ngudi hgc dgi hau va nude biln dang Trong dd, ngdnh de tdn hge thucmg nhat la ngdnh nudi trdng thiiy sdn (chii ylu d huypn Binh Dgi); Iam nghipp (huypn Binh Dai, Ba Ket qua nghien curu 3.1 Ket qud cua ba eugc thdo luan nhdm tap Tri); ngdnh ndng nghipp (chii yeu trdng liia d huy|n Binh Dgi, mgt phkn a huypn Thgnh Phu) Theo y trung (FGDs) kien cua mgt sd ngudi dan tham gia thao lugn nhdm FGDs cho biit rdng, BDKH Iam thdi tilt thay ddi Ap/ xa/ Huy?n S6 ho gia dinh tra 16i phdng vdn S6 lirong 32.00 96 5,67 17 4,67 14 9,67 29 5.00 15 7,00 21 21,00 63 14 4.67 24 8.00 2.67 3.00 2.67 39 13.00 29 9.67 3.33 10 87 29,00 0,33 10,33 31 15 5,00 24 8,00 16 5,33 15 5,00 15 5,00 300 100,00 % 40 % Kinh taJ'tiat trien BI6N TOI KHI HRU Vfl PHflT TRI€N SGN V( ' U I ^ cho rdng, tir ndm 2006 den nam 2010 (n$ng nhat Id ndm 2009) lodi nhuyin Ihl hai mdnh vd (ngheu, ngao, sd) bj chet hang logt khdng chdng chju ndi vdi ndng dO mudi tdng, nhipt dg thay ddi bat thudng Dilu dd lam gidm san lugng thu hogeh, Idc dgng tiau cyc din ddi sdng ngudi ddn cung nhu Idm giam dang kl GDP ciia tinh Bin Tre Nude bien dang cung la nguyen nhan Idm gia tang hipn tugng xdm nhgp m$n d Ben Tre Tinh hinh xam nhgp m$n chiem hau hit dipn tieh khu vye ven biln (3 huypn Binh Dgi, Ba Tri va Thgnh Phu), tdi nguyen nude ngam khu vye cd ehdt lugng, Irit lugng k6m Do dd, khu vyc ven biln phdi ddi mgt vdi thilu nude nggt phyc vy cho sinh hogt, sdn xu^t va phat trien ndng nghipp, hire xuc nhdt la ngudi ddn thilu nude sinh hogt hgp vp sinh tdm quang canh va quang canh xen rung gidm ddng kl (trudc ndm 2007, mgt eon nude tu 5-6 ngdy thu duge 7-10 tripu VND tr€n di$n tich khodng 7-10 ha, sau ndm 2007 chi thu dugc tdi da tripu VND); D0 mdn tdng lam cho vd tdm su vd vd tdm the chdn trdng day han va chgm ldn va cung Idm cho thdi gian nudi tdm sii k6o ddi (Irudc day chi cd Ihdng/vy, keo dai 4,5-5 thdng/vy) Vi vgy, ndng suat vd hi^u qud nudi tdm sii vd tdm the chan trdng tham canh vd bdn Iham canh syt giam rd rpt San lugng danh bdt hdi sdn cung syt gidm Xd Thdi Thugn Id dja dilm dugc thidn nhidn uu dai dh phdt triln thuy sdn chii yeu Id lodi nhuyin thi hai manh vd (ngheu, sd) vdi dipn tich khd ldn, dilu kl^n ty nhien thugn Igi Tuy nhidn, nhitng nam qua (d$e bipt 2010) ngheu bj chet hang logt (gan 90%) BDKH" tdc dgng din cdc hp sinh thdi ven biln, gay thipt hgi ngng ne cho nong ddn Viing dat bai bdi Iam bien dgng din ngudn Igi hai sdn td biln Vi vgy, nudi sd huyet bj viii lap da ldm sd huylt chit hdng dnh hudng trye tilp din sinh kl cua c$ng ddng ngu logt Khu vye nudi ngheu duge ddnh gia la dl bj tdn ddn ven biln Mk ehd d vd sinh kl Id mgt thuang bien ddi hgu va nude biln dang da nhihig vin Ah ddng luu tam nhat dudi tdc dgng cua Idm thay ddi dilu ki^n mdi trudng vd hp sinh thdi 3.2 Ma tran ddnh gid muc de bi ton thuffng BDKH vi Bin Tre cd dja hinh thap nhat thuge Ddng Dya vao mdc tdc dgng va tinh nhgy cdm ciia bdng Sdng Ciru Long (DBSCL) Ngodi ra, cdc nude Lao vd Campuchia xay dyng nhitng ITnh vyc khdc bao, xdm nhgp mgn, hp thong dgp thiiy dipn tren sdng Me Kong Idm eho nude biln ddng vd sgt Id ddt, ba xa Thira Dure, An lugng nude dd vl sdng Ciiru Long khdng cdn nhu Thuy vd Giao Thgnh duQc lap ma tran ddnh gia theo trudc Miia khd tHi egn klpt, miia mua thi lugng mirc dp dl bi tdn thuong cao (H), muc dp dl hi tdn nude qud nhilu Van dl da Iam thay ddi ddng thuang trung binh (M), muc de bi tdn thuang thap chdy tren hp thdng ede sdng thuge dja phgn tinh Ben (L), va chua bi tdn thuang (N) (bdng 3, 4, vd 5) Tre, ldm hipn tugng xdm nhdp man ngdy cdng Ket qua nghien cuu chi rang, eae hinh thire nghiem trgng, ldm thipt hgi ngng ne eho nudi bieu hipn eiia bien ddi hdu tac dgng khdng gidng thuy san Dong thdi nd ldm hgn che lugng phii sa din cac nganh, linh vyc vd dia phuong khde • bdi ddp eho DBSCL, lam dnh hudng din lich trinh Tgi Ben Tre, nganh trpt va nudi trdng san xuat cung nhu ndng sudt san xuat lua ggo cua thiiy sdn de bi tdn thuang nhdt su tdc dpng eua khu vyc ndy bien ddi hgu Ben cgnh tdc dgng den sdn xuat Tgi xd Thiia Ddc huypn Binh Dgi, ndng suat nudi ndng nghipp, bien ddi hgu edn tdc dgng tieu cyc Bang 3: Ma tr|in mirc dg ton thuong lai xa Thira Sire, Binh Dai, Ben Tre Lo9i ton thuang Hien tuong Bao Xam nhSp man Nuac bien dang Sat Id dat Tr6ng trot H H L H N N N Chan nudi N Nu6i tr6ng thiiy sin L M N H N N Dinh bat M N H N L Nha a va tai san hd gia dinh H H H N Sinh hoat gia dinh (an u6ng, tam, gf^t ) H N Sire kh6e N N N Ca sd t^g N N N M H; tinh dl tin thucmg cao; M: tfnh dl tdn thuong tmng binh; L: tfnh dl tin thuong thdp; N: chua bj tdn thuong Nguon' Diiu tra cua nhom ldc gid kililiyiiiiUi'in ?I€N BOI KHI HflU Vfl PHflT TRI6N B6N V O N G Bing 4: Ma tr$n miirc d$ tbn thuong t;i xi An Thuy, Ba Tri, Ben Tre Hi§n tuong Xflm nh^p man Nude bidn ding Sat Id dk Bao H N L M Trong trot N N N N Chan nudi H L N L Nudi tr6ng thuy san N N N H Dinh bat H N N L Nha d va tai san hd gia dinh H N M N Sinh hoat gia dinh (an u6ng tam giat ) N N N N Si>c khde N M N N Ca sd t^K H: tinh dl tin thuong cao; M tinh dl tin thuang Irung binh; L: tinh dl tin thuong thdp; N: chua bj tdn thuong Nguon: Dieu tra cua nhdm tdc gid Bdng 5: Ma Iran mirc dg ldn thuomg lai xfi Giao Th^nh, Thanh Phii, Ben Tre Loai t6n thuang Hi§n tm;ng Bao xam nh$p m$n hJudc bien dang Sat Id dit Lo^i t6n thuang M M L Tr6ng trpt n N N "han nudi N N M Mudi trdng thuy san H M L N Danh bat L N N L L >}ha d va tai san hd gia dinh M M Sinh hoat gia dinh (an udng iam giat .) N L N H N N N Sue khde L N N N Co sd tang M H: tinh de tdn thuong cao; M: tinh de ton thuong trung binh; L: tinh de ton thuong thdp; N: chua bj tdn thuong Ngudn: Diiu Ira eda nhom tdc gia din cac khia eanh khae nhu dilu kien sinh hoat hg de dga bdi myc nude biln ddng Vd theo kjch ban gia dinh, sire khde, tinh mgng, tai san hg gia dinh va nude bien ddng, Giao Thgnh se il bi ton thuang hon ea sd tang cdng cgng so vdi hai xd cdn Igi Theo ket qud cdc cuge thdo lugn nhdm, x3 Thira 3.3 Ddnh gid thift hgi bdo, xdm nhgp man Dire la de bj ton thucmg bao gay han so vdi vd syt Iff dat cdc xa cdn Igi Tuy nhien, ITnh vye ddnh bat thiiy sdn 3.3.1 Thiit hgi vd ddnh gid thiit hgi din sinh ki tai xd An Thuy bj dnh hudng cao ban so vdi Thda bdo gdy Dire vd Giao Thgnh Dd Id ddnh bdt thuy sdn Id Thdng qua dtt lipu dieu tra duge, nhdm nghlfin ngdnh nghi chinh ciia hau hit ede hg gia dinh tgi xd cuu thong ke tde dgng eiia bdo gay nhu sau: An Thiiy Vi vgy, bdo din, ngu dan khdng the Trong 300 hg gia dinh, cd 205 hg gia dinh bj dnh khoi, va phai tim nai de tdu be tru an an todn, dan Sd hp bi dnh hudng bdi bdo 205 hd den ngimg ddnh bdt ldm mat Ihu nhgp ciia hg Cd ba xa nghien cuu diu bj xdm nhgp m$n gdy So ngdy phyc hdi tdc ddng tdi chlnh Trung binh 40 ngdy thipt hgi cho trdng trgt vd Iam d nhiem ngudn nude sach; xd An Thiiy it bj tdn thuang han so S6 ngdy phyc hdi bj tdc dpng tdm ly Trung binh 27 ngdy vdi hai xa edn Igi Theo bao cao eua ngudi ddn, xam Trung binh 33 ngdy nhdp man cdn ed the gay nhiing anh hudng xau S6 ngdy trd Igi binh thudng den nudi tdm, nhung miirc thipt hgi it han so vdi su tdc dgng eua nd Ien ngdnh trdng trgt vi tdm sdng hudng bdi can bdo nam 2006 Trung binh, hg phdi ngudng m§n eho phep cao han mat 40 mdi phyc hdi nhflng tac dgng tdi So vdi cdc bilu hien cua hgu, sgt Id ddt it gay chinh va mdt 33 mdi Ird Igi trgng thai binh tdn thuang nhat Trong dd, trdng trgt, nudi thudng trdng thuy san, nhd d va tai sdn hg gia dinh deu bj 42 kinh t A t iriei BI€N TOI KHI HflU VR PHFIT TRICN BGN VI Bang 6: Thi^t h^i vd lugng gia thipt h^i bao gay Nhihig thi^t hai Thi^t hai nha Thiet hai thiet bi gia dinh Thift h^i vSt nudi Thift hai tai san M4t san phim nong nghidp Mit thu nh§p tir ddnh bat Mit san phim nudi thiiy san Mit thu nh$p ngfmg vi|c Mit san phim mudi Mit dit T$ne thilt hai So hd gia dinh 172 50 15 40 20 39 Sau mgt vai gid di qua dja phuang, eon bao Durian (2006) da gay thipt hgi ldn Cd 172 205 hg gia dinh bdo edo rang tong thipt hgi ve nha (chii yeu la sgp nhd, toe mdi) cua hg han ty dong Ndng nghipp, ddnh bat vd nudi thiiy sdn ciing bj thipt hgi dang ke Tdng gia trj thiet hgi bao 300 hg gia dinh dieu Ira gan 3,2 ly dong Trong qua trinh bdo lu xay ra, ngudi dan it bi cdc bpnh lien quan din dudng mgt, hd hdp nen thipt hgi ngudn nude gdy sau bao la khdng ddng ke Trong khoang tir nam 2001 den 2010, tgi khu vye nghien cdu khdng cd trdn lii lyt ndo gay thiet hgi dang ke cho ngudi dan 3.3.2 Thiit hgi vd ddnh gid thiit hgi din sinh ki xdm nhdp man gdy Thdng qua dfl lieu dilu tra dugc, nhdm tac gid thdng ke dugc tdc ddng cua xam nhdp man gay nhu sau: S6 hO gia dinh bj dnh hudng bdi xdm 271 hp nhdp m^n Xam nhap mdn xdy dau tien (ndm ndm cdch day) Thdi gian xdm nhdp mdn moi ndm 168 ngdy (ngdy) Dp mdn dd tdng len qua cdc ndm (sd 271 hp hO ding!?) Ngudn: Diiu Ira ciia nhdm tdc gid Tdng gia tri lhi«t hai (VND) 1.059 900.000 116 510.000 3.100.000 131.700.000 348.040.000 389.600.000 1.099.100.000 10.600.000 28.000.000 10.000.000 3.196.550.000 Ngudn: Dieu tra cua nhdm tdc gid Trong 300 ngudi dilu tra, cd 90,33% (271 ngudi) trd Idi gia dinh cua hg bj thipt hgi bdi hi$n tugng xam nhgp mgn Theo hg, hipn tugng xam nhgp mgn da xdy edeh day nam, vd trung binh mdi nam cd 168 ngdy bj nhilm man 100% hg gia dinh bj thipt hgi ddng y rang muc dg nhiem man da tang Ien qua cdc ndm Cd 65 ngudi trd Idi rang san phdm ndng nghiep eda gia dinh hg hi hu hgi nude man xam nhgp vdi tdng gia trj thiet hgi la 710.810.000 VND San phdm nudi thuy san cua 14 hg gia dinh eung hi thipt hgi 644.050.000 VND dg mgn tang Han nira, xdm nhgp mdn da dat 146 hg gia dinh (chiem 48,67%) tinh trgng thieu nude sinh hoat gay thipt hgi vl kinh tl 215.343.000 VND Chi cd hg gia dinh trd Idi mac cac bpnh Ii€n quan tdi ngudn nude sinh hogt bi nhiem mgn, gid trj thiet hai khdng dang ke (chi 27.600.000 VND) Tdng mde tiiiet hgi nude bi nhilm man len tdi 1.599.803.000 VND 3.3.3 Thiet hgi vd ddnh gid thiit hgi din sinh ki sgt l& ddt gdy Thdng qua dir lieu dilu tra duge, nhdm nghien CUOI thdng ke tde dgng eua sgt Id ddt gay nhu sau: Bang 7: Thipt hai va lugng gia Ihipl hai xam nhap mdn gSy NhOng thidt hai Thilt hai san phim ndng nghiep Thiiu nude sinh hoat gia dinh Thiet hai nudi trdng thuv san Binh ngoai da B|nh khac Thiit bj cdng cu bi giam tuii tho Ting thilt hai kinh ipJtll Irien So hd gia dinh 65 146 14 Tong gia tri thilt hai (VND) 710.810.000 215.343.000 644.050.000 25.600.000 2.000.000 2.000.000 1.599.803.000 Nguon: Dieu tra cua nhom tac gia 43 mti DOI KHi HflU Vfl PHflT TRieN B€N VUNG sd hp i^ia dmh bj anh hudng bdi sgl Id S6 trin sgt Id ddt trung binh xdv m6i ndm S6ng ldn Nguy€n nhdn sgt Mua Idn bdo vd sdng Idn Id (S6 ngudi trd Mua ldn, bdo, s6ng Idn vd trilu cudng ddng Idi chpn) Ngudn: Dieu tra cua nhdm 36 hd trjtn 24 hQ 4h$ 8h(> tde gid So vdi bdo vd xam nh§p m&n, so ngudi Ird Idi bj anh hudng bdi hipn tugng sgt Id chi cd 12% (36/300 ngudi) Trong 10 ndm qua, trung binh ed tr§n sgt Ichoing 0 0 V N D T6ng g i i tri thi^t h?i sjt I* dat gSy l i 590.800.000 V N D ; 3.4 Ddnh gid nk$n Ihtic cua nguM Mn vi bien aSlklilli^u N g o i i nhCtng liet q u i tren, nghien ciru dinh g i i mirc dO nh^n thirc ciia ngiriri dan ve bien d6i h?u Ket q u i dicu Ira chi ring 61,67% ngirdi tri Idi (trong t6ng si 0 ) cd hieu biet ve biin dAi khl h§u v i nhd-ng t i c dpng ciia nd (trong dd chi cd 2% biet nhieu), , 3 % khdng he biit Id ddt dnh hudng din gia dinh ciia hg Theo hg gi ( B i n g 9) n i u hit nhttng ngirdi dan cd thong tin nguyen nhdn ehinh xdy hipn tugng sgt Id Id v i bien d6i khl h$u v i nhiing t i c dpng ciJa nd tit sdng Idn (24/36) phuong ti?n truyen thdng (dii phit thanh, tivi) vi Bang 8: T h i f l hai vk lupmg %i& thi^t hai d o sal Id dat gay Nhdng thilt hai Thilt hai nha cCra Thilt hai tai san Sd hd gia dinh c i c Idp t9p huan doi phd vdi thien tai B i n g cdn c h o thay ndng dan dirpc hdi da cd Tdng gia tri thilt hai (VND) 57.000.00C 107.000.000 nhihig chuin bi gi d i doi phd vdi t i c dpng ctia bien doi khl h?u x i y tirong lai, % ngirdi tra Idi khing dinh ring "khdng cd chuan bj gi", , 3 % cho biit "cd chuan bi mpt it" va chi co Thi|t hai san phim 70.900.000 ndng nghilP Thi|t hai nudi trdng 186.000.000 12 thuy san 285.000.00C 10 Mit dit 590.800.000 Tdng thiet hai Nguon: Bieu tra cua nhom lac gia Ket qua didu tra hp gia dinh chi rSng sat Id dat da gay nhiiu tdn thit cho san x u i t nong nghidp va nuoi thuy san cung nhir Iam mat dat tho c u va dat san xuat Gia tri san phim nong nghi?p va nu6i trdng thuy san bi mat la 186.000.000 V N D v4 70.900.000 V N D Gia trj dat dai bi mat ud"C tinh 2/300 (0,67%) ngudi tri Idi cho biet "cd sir chuan hi nhieu" M^c dii cd it ngirdi tri Idi cd sir chuin bj d i ddi phd vdi nhihig t i c dpng ciia biin doi h^u, nhung cd tdi 61,67% (185 ngudi) k h i n g djnh ring nhitag t i c dpng ciia bien ddi h i u trpng tuong lai se n i n g n i hon s o vdi qua khir, 35,33% ngudi tri Idi ring khdng biet c h i c chin ve muc dp t i c dpng cua bien doi h i u tuong lai 3.5 Kha ndng irng vdi bien 3di h^u cita h0 gia dinh 3.5.1 Khd ndng ling phd v&i bao, IU I\it B a n g 9: Sir nhan thirc ciia ngudi d a n v e bien doi hau SdTT cau hdi Tri Idi •Chdng Mdt It Klin thdc ve bien d6i khl h|u va nhihig tac ddng Mhiiu :iiand Diydii Tong Khdng chuin bi gl Sir chuin bi de dii phd vdi nhthig tac ddng sS xay M«tlt tuong lai Nhieu Diy dii ring Nhthig tic ddng tuong lai Nang hon so vdi qui khijr Nhu qua khii Khdng chac chin Tdng Sd ngudi tri Idi S6 lupng 38,33 115 59,67 179 2,00 0,00 100.00 300 65,00 195 34,33 103 0,67 0,00 100.00 300 61.67 185 3,00 106 35,33 100,00 300 % Ngudn: Dieu tra cua nhdm tdc gio KiiitikJiiiltiiieD SieN BOI KHI HflU Vfl PHflT TRieN SENV O l ^ Bang 10: Ho^t ddng irng phd Irirdc bao/Iu lijt xay cua h$ gia dinh diyc hi?n sau bao/Iu lyt xdy (Xem bang 11)Hoat ddng Vdi nhihig thi^l hgi ldn ve nhd eda, chiing ta Sd hd gia khdng nggc nhien dH li^u dieu tra chi rdng sira dinh cht^a nhd Id hogt dgng dugc thyc hi?n bdi nhieu hg Tiln hdnh stta chfta/gia cd de cdn nhd cd thi gia dinh nhat Chi phf sda nha sau bdo trung binh chIng chju tit hom vdi lu lut vd mua bdo 38 mdi hg gia dinh Id 14.275.640 VND Trong bdo Di chuyin tdi noi an todn 41 xdy dd cd 60 hg gia dinh phdi so tdn tdi noi an Tring cdy xung quanh dl bdo v§ tdi sdn todn (try sd xa, trudng hge) Vi?c so tdn bg dOi Thu hogch mitu vy ho§c ao nudi sdm hon bi6n phdng, UBND xd vd cdc lyc lugng ehue ndng Gia cl Idng bi/ao nudi Di chuyin thilt bi nudi tr6ng ho^c ddnh bdt thye hi^n nen ngudi ddn khdng ton chi phi Sau bdo, den noi an todn ed 11 hg gia dinh Igi mua v\f (trong Igi xoai, Tham gia tilt ki|m tfn dgng nhdm/ hpp tdc x3 I dua hau) bj bdo phd hiiy vdi chi phf trung binh Chudn b) thdc dn 1.872.917 dong/hg 42 hg gia dinh phdi sda chda Igi Di chuyin tdi sdn den noi an todn ao nudi bao vd lu lyt tdn phd, vdi ehi phf trung Xdy dl bSng ddt dl ngdn ngda IQ lyt binh 9.457.115 dong/hg Do hodn cdnh gia dinh khd Ngudn: Diiu tra cua nhdm tdc gid khdn, n6n bao xdy dd ed 31 h$ gia dinh phai Ben Tre la mgt tinh thuge DBSCL rdt it g$p di vay lien de khdc phye Ihi^t hgi bao gdy (xay bdo nen ngudi dan thudng rdt chu quan Vi vgy, mdi hogc sua nha), binh qudn moi hg da vay trudc bao va lu l\il xay ra, ed rdt ft hg gia dinh 22.064.516 dong Tong chi phi eho nhiing hoal dgng chuan bj d^ ddi phd mac du hg dS nhgn dugc cdnh va sau bao hon 3,5 ty dong Lugng tien bd bao sdm tu ehinh quyen dia phucmg Khi dugc hdi ndy cd the xem Id khodn thi^t hgi thu hai cho hO gia "Trudc bao/lii lut xay ra, anh/ehj cd th^c hipn dinh bao lu gay nhihig hanh dgng d8 bdo v^ h$ gia dinh trdnh khdi 3.5.2 Hogt dgng dng phd vdi xdm nhdp mgn nhihig thi^t hgi tiem ndng? Dd Id nhutig hanh dgng Nhii'ng hogt dgng dugc hg gia dinh thyc hien dS gi? Va ehi phf la bao nhieu?" Chi cd 20% (41 ngudi tdng so 205 ngudi bi thi^t hgi bao) cho biet ddi phd vdi hien tugng xdm nhgp mgn (Xem bdng gia dinh cua hg da di ehuyen Idi noi an loan, vd 38 12) De doi phd vdi van de thieu nude nggt, nude mira ngudi (chi€m 18,54%) tra Idi da gia cd Igi nhd, nhirng hogt dgng khde cd rdt it gia dinh thge da dugc 270 hg gia dinh (trong tdng sd 271 hg gia dinh bj thieu nude) thu hdng vd su- dung nhu la hien (Bang ID) Nhijng hogt ddng ung phd ma ede h$ gia dinh da nguon ehu yeu de uong vd sinh hogt Trung binh mdi hO gia dinh tdn 3.994.925 VND d6 mua hoae Bang 11: Ho^t ddng irng phd Irong va sau bSo/lu lui xay ciia hg gia dinh Hoat ddng Sira chiya nha Sa tan tdi nai an loan Trdng cay xung quanh de bao ve tai san Trflng lai mUa vu Sua ehi^a ao nudi Tham gia tiet kiem nhom/hap tac xS Tlm kiim cdng viec khac di tao thfim thu nhip Vay tign de ddi phd vdi nhihig thiet hai Tham gia tiit kidm Vidn tra tai chinh tir nha nude Xiy de bang dit xung quanh trang trai Nang nin nha xay him trii bao Ting chi phi kinli leJ'liiltli'ien So hp gia dinh 172 60 11 42 1 31 71 37 1 Chi phi trung binh 14.275.640 24.561 250 1.872.917 9.457.115 600 100.000.000 22.064.516 NA 3.235.000 14000.000 5.000.000 15.000.000 Tdng (VND) 2.455.409.406 1.399.406 500 22.474.406 397.198.812 600 100.000.000 683.999.406 NA 129.400.000 42.000.000 5.000.000 15.000.000 3.852.981.436 Ngudn: Diiu tra cua nhdm tdc gid 45 ?m BOI KHi HflU Vfl PHI^T TRI€N B6N VONG Bang 12: NhiiTig ho»l dpng doi phd v61 xiUn nhjp ciia hp gia dinh Ting (VND) Chi phi trung hlnh s i hd gia dinh 1.062.650.000 55,090.000 Hoat ddng Thu himg nude mua Tim kiim npu6n nude khic Mua nude tir cac nha cung cip Xiy de banf^ dit xung quanh ao/rudng Tine chi phi Nguon: Dieu tra cita nhdm tdc gid xay dirng cic bi chira nude mua Khu virc nghidn ciru hiu nhu bi nhiim miin quanh nSm nen rit it hd gia dinh cd thi dio hojc khoan dupe giing nude ngpt phuc vp cho sinh ho?t hing ngiy Trong dd, khdng cd nguin nude s?ch lit nha nude Vi v?y, "mua nude ngpt tir cic nha cung cap" cung dupe ngudi dan su diing nhu mpt bipn phip thich irng, nd phuc vy chp nhu ciu sinh hoiit vi m0t phan sir diing di uong Vdi ni lire ngin chin nude injn xam nhip din ding rupng/ao nudi, xay de bing dit xung quanh ao/ rupng dupe ngudi dan xem li each tot nhat (41 hp gia dinh sir dung), nhung chi phi cho bien phap dii phd niy tuong dii cao (binh quan rail hp gia dinh mit 19.845.500 ding) Tong chi phi da bd de dii phd vdi van de xam nhjp mjn cua cic hd gia dinh diiu tra la 2.122.917.000 dong hlnh thirc biiu hi?n cua biin doi hju xiy Day dupe xem li khoin thipt h?i thd hai mi ngudi dan phii ginh chju sir tic dpng cua bien doi h?u Biiu niy tic dpng njng ne den sinh ke ya doi song cua ngudi dan, nhit li khu virc ven bien linh Ben Tre vin di nghdo cing nghdo hon Kit luSn Nghidn ciru niy t?p trung vio mpt si xa ven biin ^^^^ g