Ket qua nghien cufu dien bien khi hau, thuy van tinh Quang Trj giai doan 1993 2013 dudi tac dong cua bien doi khi hau NGUYEN THANH LOI'''', NGUYEN HUNG TRI’, NGO CHI TUAN'''' Tdi nguyen vd M6i tru&ng tinh Q[.]
Ket qua nghien cufu dien bien hau, thuy van tinh Quang Trj giai doan 1993 - 2013 dudi tac dong cua bien doi hau NGUYEN THANH LOI', NGUYEN HUNG TRI’, NGO CHI TUAN' Tdi nguyen vd M6i tru&ng tinh Quang Tri ^Truong Dg.i hoc Khoa hoc Tif nhien - Dai hoc Quoc gia Hd Ngi l.D a tv a n d e Quang Tri la mot cac tinh chiu anh huong ciia hau het cac loai thien tai thirong xay a Viet Nam nhung voi tan suat cao hon va miic dp ac liet hon nhu bao, ap thap nhiet ddi, lu lut, lu quet, han han, 16c t6, sat la ddt, ung han, xam nhap mto, tri6u cuang Viec nghien cuu, phSn tich, danh gia mot each ky ckig ve dien bien hau, thuy van nhat la sir phan bd va tin suit xuit hien ciia cac hien tupng thai tiet cue doan tren dia ban tinh nhung nam qua dong thai c6 ca sa dir bao cho nhung nam tiep theo la mot nhiem vu rat quan trpng phuc vu cho phat trien kinh te - xa hoi cua tinh Phan tich va danh gia dien biln c^c yeu to h^u, thuy van giai do^n 1993 - 2013 2,1 D iin biin kh i h^u 11 Nhiet Doi vai Quang Tri, nhiet dp trung binh thai ky 1993 - 2013 tren toan tinh vao khoang 24.5°C, cao han trung binh thai ky 1973 - 2013 (24.4®C) kho^g 0.1®C Bang 2.1 Nhiet dp trung binh a cac tram tupng thdi ky 1993 - 2013 Bern v/; "C TT Tr^m I 11 III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII TB nam eSn Co 20.6 21.1 22.1 24.8 27.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 28.1 26.5 24.8 22.1 25.5 Dong 19.6 20,8 22.7 26.0 28.3 29.9 29.5 28.8 27.0 25.3 23.1 20.4 25.1 Khe Sanh 18.1 19.5 21 24.5 25.7 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.3 23.1 21.2 18.6 22.8 2.1.2 B6c hoi So vai cac thai ky truac, cac thai ky 1993 - 2013 va 2003 - 2013 deu cho thay gia tri tong lupng b6c hai nam trung binh thdi ky nho han Trong d6, ting lupng b6c hoi nam trung binh thai ky 2003 - 2013 I Bflw ■ % lion Imc vii COiiii iHihe Stf 4/2015 nho han lupng boc hoi nam trung binh thdi ky 1973 - 1982 va 1983 - 1992 tuong ung la 119.7mm va 64.7mm, cao hon khoang 22.5mm d6i vdi thdi ky 1993 -2002 (B ik d 2.1) V=-47178x*99.074 & 8\ S s ^ s s f lM f t jip iX ^ Bieu 2.1 Dien bien chudn sai tong lugng bdc hcri trung binh ndm d tinh Qudng Tri 2.1.5 Gio Hang nam, tinh Quang Tri chju anh huong ciia hai hirong gio chinh la gio mua Tay Nam (tir th ^ g den thang 9) va gio mua Dong Bac (tir th ^ g den thang nam sau) Tai Quang Tri, s6 lieu thong ke va tong hop cho thay xu huong giam dan cua toe dp gio giua cac thai ky Khoang thoi ky 1993 - 2013 la thoi ky c6 toe gio trung binh nho nhat (2,29 m/s) (Bi8u 2.3) 2.1.3 Mua So v6i eac thoi ky trude, luong mua trung binh nam thoi ky 2003 - 2013 Ion hon luong mua trung binh nam thoi ky 1973 - 1982 khoang 1mm, eao hon gan 92mm so vdi dibi ky 1983 - 1992 va khoang 20mm doi voi thoi ky 1993 - 2002 (Bieu 2.2) Bieu 2.3 Toe dg gio trung binh ede thoi ky 2.1.6 Nhmtg tdc dong cue doan vd thien tai a Nhiet dp toi eao tuyet doi (Tx), toi thap tuyet doi (Tm) va gio kho nong Tai tram Dong Ha, giai doan tii 1973 2013, nhipt dp toi eao trung binh nam eo xu the tang nhe, trung binh moi nam nhiet dp toi eao trung binh nam tang khoang 0.016“C Trong do, nhiet dp Bieu 2.2 Luang mua trung binh ede th&i ky toi thap trung binh nam cung CO xu the tang va 2.1.4 Nang COxu the tang nhanh hon Bang 2.2 So gio ntog trung binh thang, nam o mot s6 t r ^ (Dan vi: Gia) SO voi nhiet dp toi cao, trung binh moi nam nhiet Tram 10 11 12 Nam dp toi cao trung binh nam Ddng Ha 89 88 111 168 218 221 218 192 141 120 98 57 1720 tang khoang 0.024°C Khe Sanh 122 124 152 182 199 175 165 138 131 131 110 95 1725 Tai tram Khe Sanh, giai doan tu 1977 2013, nhiet dp toi cao trang binh nam c6 xu the giam, Khi so sanh giua eae thoi ky, tong so gio nang trung binh moi nam nhiet dp toi cao trung binh nam trung binh eo xu huong giam dan O tram Dong Ha, giam khoang 0.034°C Trong do, nhiet dp toi thap tong so gio nang trung binh thoi ky 1973 - 1982 la trung binh nam c6 xu the tang, trung binh moi nam 1944 gio/nam, 1915 gio/nam voi thoi ky 1983 - 1992 nhiet dp toi cao trung binh nam tang khoang 0.045°C va 1775 gio/nam veri thoi ky 1993 - 2002, khoang Quang Tri mang du sac thai cua hau mien thoi ky 2003 - 2013 eo tong so gio nSng nho nhSt la Trung Viet Nam, c6 miia mua va kho ro ret Dac 1670 gio/nam M liMNi lii»e v » CAiiii ih|I i 4/2015 biet la chiu anh huong cua gio Tay Nam kho vanong Theo thong ke, tu nam 1974 - 2013 c6 khoMg 1512 dot kho nong, trung binh 37,2 d g t/n ^ b Mua Ion Theo ket qua thong ke, tai tram Dong Ha giai doan 1973 - 2013, tong so mua to va mua rdt to d8u c6 XU th6 tang Tuy nhien, tong s6 mua rat to c6 xu th6 tang rSt nhe, khong dang ke Trung binh moi nam, tong s6 mua to tai tram Dong tang khoang 0.06 c Bao va ap thSp nhiet ddi Theo ket qua thong ke, nhin chung, s6 luong bao va ap thSp nhiSt ddi c6 anh hudng true tiep tdi tinh Quang Tri c6 xu th6 giam nhe nhung miic giam khong dang k l C6 nhieu nam tinh Quang Tri khong bi anh hudng bdi bSt ky bao nao Cac nam khac bi anh hudng tu den bao va ap thap nhiet ddi Trong giai doan 1962 - 2009, c6 nam tinh Quang Tri phai chiu tac dong true tiep cua bao va ap thap nhi?t ddi la nam 1964 va 1984 TAngi^eoii Mov*ATNDgial do«nl9«2-2009 tnhhudnglUtl Bieu 2.4 Tong so can bao vd dp thap nhiet dai giai doan 1962 - 2009 anh huong t&i tinh Quang Tri trinh hti tang bi hu hai 2.2 Dien bien thuy van 2.2.1 Mucnuac Muc nude dugc tai cac t r ^ khac tren dia ban c6 su phan hda ro ret dugc quyet dinh rit Idn vao thdi diem mua lu (thdng den th ^ g nam sau) va mua can (thang dSn thang 8) Theo s6 lieu quan trie muc nude tai cac tram thuy van Cua Viet, Dong Ha, Gia Vong, Thach Han tu 1977 - 2013 nhan thay: Mgc nude lu he thu tren cac trien song chi dao dong tir 1,5 -1 ,7m; it muc nude lu he thu tren cac tri8n song len cao tren 1,7m Hudng chuyen ciia lu a vung h^ du cung rat phiic tap Muc nu&c mua kiet: Trong mua kiet muc nude tren trien song B^n Hai, Thach Han xuong rat thap Thong thudng thip hon cao dg trung binh ddng rugng tu - 2,5m Mgc nude mua kiet tai cau dudng sat tren song Th^h Han binh quan +0,8 den +0,9m tai cau Chau Thi tren song Sa Lung tu 1,0m den 1,04m Muc nuac lu: Tinh chat lu trSn cac song khac va muc nude lu theo timg thdi ky cung khac Muc nude lu he thu rat thip nhimg muc nude lu chinh vu rat cao S6 liSu quan trie tu 1977 trd lai day cho thiy lu Idn nhat tren luu vuc song Thach Han tai tram Thach Han xay \ko 31/10/1983 (711cm), 19/9/1990 (709cm), 2/11/1999 (729cm) T?i tram Dong Ha tren song Cam Lp: Muc nude lu Idn nhit la 31 /10/1983 (456cm) Thing 27/10/1995 (449cm) (bang 2.3) Bang 2.3 Muc nuac trung binh thang, nam acdctrtfm thuy van (Danvf: cm) d Lu va lu quet Tram 10 11 12 Nam Lu va lu quet gay Cvfa Viet anh Idn d6 su phat trien -7 -10 -13 -15 -23 -24 -16 27 25 16 -3 kinh t6 Idn cua tinh Vi Dong Ha -2 -6 -9 -18 -19 -11 15 52 48 27 du nhu Dgt lu tu 29/9 Gia Vong 228 213 204 202 210 201 194 198 237 307 295 262 229 - 5/10/2010 da gay lu, lu quet cho cac tinh Ha Thach Han 17 -3 -3 -12 -14 -3 41 96 62 24 "nnh, Nghe An, Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thira Muc nu&c trung binh: Thien - H u i Trin mua Idn b it diu tCr 29/9/2010 da Trong s6 lieu muc nude trung binh giua ckc gay lu, lu quet tren toan bo luu vuc song Ngan Siu thdi ki cua hai tr?m Th^ch Han va Gia Vong the hi?n Ngan Ph6 Do mua Idn, mge nude thugng nguon tap xu the giam theo thdi gian, thi dieu ngugc lai xay trung ve lAanh Tai Quang Trj, hon 2.000 nha dan bi doi vdi hai tram Cua Viet va Dong Ha ngap, n h ik dien tich lua t^i TP Dong Ha va huyen Gio Linh bi ngap ung, ngudi chet va nhieu cong life vu CAimi iHih^ Sfi”4/2015 10/1983; 10/1990, 10/1992, da tao nen nhiing tran lu Ion, dac biet Ion vung nhat la tran lu 10/1983 - Huong chuyen cua lu vung du cung rat phiic tap song Thach Han lu Ion o du huong lu chuyen theo phia, mot huong theo song VTnh Dinh chuyen ve song Ben Hai va mot huong theo song An Tiem chuyen v6 Cua Lac, dong chu luu theo dong chinh chuy6n Cua Viet Khi song Thach Han lu Bieu 2.5 Diin biin muc nuac trung binh ndm tqi trgm nho, song Ben Hai lu Ion, dong lu Cua Viet vd Dong Ha ciia song Ben Hai mot phan chuyen ve du Thach Han theo kenh VTnh D ir6 n g qua trinh m i^ n v o c tr u ig binh nam tr^m Ota V o n g Dinh, mot phan Ion chuyen Ciia Th a e h HSn Tung, hien tuong tren chi xay lu dat bao dong tro len Lim luong dong chay duoc tai tram Gia Vong tren song B6n Hai khong nhftng phan bd khong deu nam Dong chay nam t^i khu vuc nghien curu c6 gia tri mo dun bidn dong khoang 54 - 73 1/s/ OQl i BSOl i nSr al BSOi Oi km^, thuoc khu vuc c6 dong chay Nitn ddi dao so vdi trung binh ca nude, Biiu 2.6 Diin biin mytc nir&c trung binh ndm tai trgm phan Idn nude tap trung vao mua lu Gia Vong vd Thtfch Han Luu luong dong chay Idn nhat d tram Gia Vong 7/10/1992 (2490 mVs), 2.2.2 L ku lucmg 28/10/2005 (2450 mVs), 16/10/2011 (2230 mVs) a Phan phoi dong chay nam Luu luong nhd nhat 0.37 m^/s (thang 8/1982) Dong - Dong chay nam duoc phan chia hai chay trung binh nam thdi ky 1993 - 2013 la 449 mVs, mua ro ret: Mua lu mua kiet Phan thugng nguon giam m^/s so vdi dong chay trung binh thdi ky song Thach Han toi Dakrong, Rao Quan mua mua 1973 -2013 d8n s6m, tu thang va kdt thuc vao thang 12, thang Lxm luong dong chay c6 xu hudng giam qua cac c6 dong chay Ion nhSt nam la thang 9, thang c6 dong thdi ky khoang tu 1973 - 1982, sau lai tang chay nhd nhat la thang va thang rat nhanh giai doan tu 1993 - 2002 (dat 479 b Dong chay k i|t mVs) va giam manh vao giai d o ^ tu 2003 - 2013 - Thang va thang la nhung thang kiet, luu (dat 421 mVs) luong tren song nho Mot s6 dong chay binh quan thang vao cac thang kiet chikhoang 10- 151/s/km^ c Dong chay lu - Ve mua lu dong chay rit Ion luong mua bao va cac nhilu dong khac ciia thbi tiet khac gay nen Cuong mua lu Ion tap trung chii yeu ba vdi ty mua kha Idn tung tran lu Lugrng mua 1cm nhat duoc dat 609mm da xay mot so tran mua lu bao, ap thap nhiet ddi, khong lanh gay n6n a mot so nam nhu Bieu 2.7 Luu luong dong chay qua ede thdi ky ITiiMii I mic COiiq $ ^ /2 Ket luan Tu cac ket qua nghien cmi va tinh toan a tren cua bao cao cho phep nit mot so ket luan sau: Tai Quang Tri, then ky 1993 - 2013 la thoi ky nong nhat lich sii Nhiet trung binh khoang 24.5°C, cao hon trung binh thoi ky 1973 - 2013 khoang O.l^C Dang chii y, chuan sai nhiet cao nhat hau het xuSt hien a thoi ky nay, voi 14 nam c6 nhiet dp cao hon nhipt dp trung binh thoi ky 1973 -2013 Luang mua trung binh nam thoi ky 1993 - 2013 khong the hien ro xu the tang hay giam Tuy n h i^ , so vdi cac thoi ky truac, lupng mua trung binh nam thoi ky 2003 - 2013 deu cao han (khoang Iram so vai thoi ky 1973 -1982, gSn 92mm so voi thoi ky 1983 - 1992 va khoang 20mm doi voi thoi ky 1993 - 2002 ) Khi so sanh voi tong luong boc hoi nam trung binh thoi ky 1973 - 2013 (996,5mm) va t6ng lupng boc hoi cac nam thoi ky 1993 - 2013 hSu het deu thap han, tu 26,1mm (2006) cho tai 183,1mm (2013) So voi cac thoi ky truac, cac thoi ky 1993 -2013 va 20032013 d6u cho th^y gia tri tong lupng boc hoi nam trung binh thoi ky nho hon Nhiet dp toi cao trung binh nam c6 xu the tang nhe, trung binh mdi nam tang khoMg 0.016°C Tuong tu, nhiet dp toi thap trung binh nam cQng tang va c6 xu th8 nhanh hon so veri nhiet dp toi cao, trung binh moi nam tang khoang 0.024®C Dac biet, dp chenh lech giua nhiet dp toi cao va toi thap trung binh nam tai tram Khe Sanh (d^i dien cho khu vuc mien nui) c6 xu th6 thu hep dan nhanh han so voi tai t r ^ Dong Ha (dai dien cho khu vuc dong bang) Tong so bao va ap thap nhiet dai anh huang tai tinh Q u ^ g Tri thoi ky 1993 - 2009 la 17 con, trung binh 0,76 can mdi nam, thap han thoi ky 1973 - 1992 khoang 0,29 can Tong so c6 suang mu trung binh thoi ky 1993 - 2013 la 21,2 Ion hon nhieu so voi thoi ky 1974 - 1992 (12,4 ngay)./ N.T.L, N.H.C,N.C.T TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Bp Tai nguyen va Moi truong, 2008 Chuang trinh muc tieu gude gia ting vai bien doi hdu Cyc Thong ke Quang Tri, 2014 Nien gidm thong he tinh Quang Tri 2012 Truong Quang Hai va cpng su, 2005 Bao cao tong k it de tai Dieu tra vd ddnh gid tiem ndng lanh thophuc vu guy hogch phdt trien du lich sink thdi tinh Quang Tri, Ha Npi Nguyin Thanh Son, 2005 Ddnh gid tai nguyen nuac Viet Nam Nha x u it b ^ Giao due, Ha Npi Nguyen Thanh San, 2003 Tinh todn thuyvdn Nhaxuatban Dai hpc Qude gia Ha Npi Nguyen Thanh Son, Ngo Chi Tuan, 2005 Nghien cmi thuy van phuc vu guy hogch phdt trien du lich sink thdi tinh Quang Tri Bao cao de muc cua d6 tai “Dieu tra vd ddnh gid tiem ndng lanh tho phuc vu guy hogch phdt trien du lich sinh thdi tinh Quang Tri”, Ha Npi Nguyen Thanh Son va nnk 2006 Bdo cdo Quy hogch tong the tai nguyen nuac Quang Tri nam 2010 cd dinh huang 2020, Ha Npi Nguyen Thanh Son, Ngo Chi Tuan, Nguyen Tien Giang, 2006 Du bdo nhu cdu su dung vd guy hogch tdi nguyen nuac Quang Tri nam 2010 vd 2020, Bao cao chuyen de cong trinh” Quy hoach tong the tai nguyen nuac Quang Tri nam 2010 c6 dinh huong 2020”, Ha Npi 10 Nguyen Thanh Son va nnk, 2011 Xdy dung luan cu ve dieu kien hgu-thuy van vd chat luong mdi trucmgnuac mat cho viec xdy d^ng Khu kinh te biin Dong Nam Qudng Tri, Ha Npi 11 Pham Ngpc Toan, Phan Tit Dac, 1992 Khihgu VietNam, Ha Npi Ngo Dinh Tuan vannk, 2002 Ddnh gid tdi nguyen nuac vungven bien Mien Trung (tit Qudng Binh den Binh Thugn), Ha Npi 12 Sa Tai nguyen va Moi truong tinh Q u^g Tri va Vien Khoa hpc Khi tupng Thuy van va Moi trudng, 2011 Xdy dung kich ban bien doi hdu vd nude bien dan cho Qudng Tri, Ha Npi 13 Uy ban nhan dan tinh Quang Tri Sa Khoa hpc Cong nghp va Mdi trudng tinh Quang Tri, \99% Dac diem hdu vd hdu ndng nghiep tinh Qudng Tri 14 Website http'//www.guangtri.eov.vn i t l Jioii lif e vd CdM| iM|lk^ 86^4/2015 ... lai tang chay nhd nhat la thang va thang rat nhanh giai doan tu 1993 - 2002 (dat 479 b Dong chay k i|t mVs) va giam manh vao giai d o ^ tu 2003 - 2013 - Thang va thang la nhung thang kiet, luu (dat... thoi ky 1973 -2013 Luang mua trung binh nam thoi ky 1993 - 2013 khong the hien ro xu the tang hay giam Tuy n h i^ , so vdi cac thoi ky truac, lupng mua trung binh nam thoi ky 2003 - 2013 deu cao... khoang 20mm doi voi thoi ky 1993 - 2002 ) Khi so sanh voi tong luong boc hoi nam trung binh thoi ky 1973 - 2013 (996,5mm) va t6ng lupng boc hoi cac nam thoi ky 1993 - 2013 hSu het deu thap han,