Dien dan nong thon mdi BlEn DOI KHI HOU UO HHirHG THACH THITC TRpNG QUY HOACH N O N G NGHIEP LONG GHEP V6l THIGH LJNG GIAM THIEU CUA BIEN DOI I^I HAU* TS Nguyen The Binh Phdn viin Quy hoach & Thiet keNdng nghiip Bien doi hau va cac thuat nguT lien quan sit dung Bien ddi hau (BOKH) l i suthay doi eda h i thdng gdm: quyen, thuy quyen, sinh quyen, thach quyen hiin tai v i va tUOng lai bdi cic nguyin nhan t u nhien v i n h i n tao mot giai doan nhat djnh t d tinh bang thap k]/ hay hang t r i i u nam SU bien ddi cd the la thay doi thdi tiet binh quan hay thay doi sU p h i n bd cic sU kien thdi tiet quanh mdt mde trung binh Su BDKH cd the gidi ban mdt vung nhat djnh hay cd the xuat hien tren toan cau Trong nhdng nam gan diy, die biet bdi cinh chinh sach mdi trUdng, BDKH thudng de cap tdi sUthay doi hau hiin nay, duge goi chung bang hien tugng ndng len toan cau Nguyin n h i n chinh lam BDKH trai dat la sugia tang cac boat ddng tao cic chat t h i i nha kinh, cic hoat ddng khai thac qua mde cac be hap thu va be ehUa nha kinh nhu sinh khdi, rdng, cic he sinh thai bien, ven bd v i dat lien khae Thuat ngd BDKH cdn dugc sd dung de nhac den nhdng trUdng hop die biet cua BDKH t i c dong cua hoat ddng ngudi; vi du, Cdng Udc Khung cOa Liin hap Quoc ve Bien doi Khi hdu (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) djnh nghia BDKH l i "suthay ddi eua hau ma hoac true tiep hoac giin tiep t i e ddng cda hoat ddng eon ngUdi dan den thay doi phan quyen toan cau va ngoai l i nhdng bien thien tu nhiin eda hau dUpc quan sat tren mdt chu ky thdi gian dai", thay ddi hau ddng nghia vdi am len toan cau Ddng dat va sdng than khdng nguyen nhan true tiep t d BDKH, nhiing hau het nhdng t h i m hoa t h i i n tai nhU: bao Id, nUdc bien d i n g , sa mac hda d^u cd nguyin n h i n td tinh trang bien ddi hau chinh eon ngudi gay n i n , lam i n h hUdng Idn den hau khap eic ITnh vUe kinh te, an sinh xa hpi cua cac nUdctren the gidi va Viit Nam cung khdng p h i i la ngoai l i , Khi nang bj ton thuong t i e ddng cda BOKH la mde dp m i mot he thdng (tu nhien, x i hdi, kinh te) ed the bj tdn thuong BDKH, hoac khdng cd k h i nang * Bai Viet c6 tham k h i o vS sCf dung cSc thong tin tCr cic hoi thSo co hen quan den BDKH, NBD va ngoai ni/dc ma t i c giS tham da, thong tin tCf cac chuong trinh, chien luoc ve u'ng ph6 v6i BDKH ctia cic Bo va m6t so t h i n g tin l(hac dang t l i tren cic tap chf, bao d o thich dng vdi nhdng t i e ddng bat loi cua BDKH CTng phd vdi BDKH la cic hoat ddng cua ngUdi nham thich Ung va g i i m nhe tac ddng cua BDKH Thich dng vdi BDKH la su dieu chinh h i thong tU nhiin hoac eon ngudi ddi vdi hoin cinh hoac mdi trUdng thay doi, n h i m muc dich giam k h i n i n g bj tdn thuong dao ddng va BDKH hoac ti^m tang va tan dung cie cO hdi nd mang lai Giim nhe t i c ddng cCia BDKH la cic hoat ddng nham g i i m mde dp hoac cUdng dp p h i t t h i i nha kinh Kich b i n ve BDKH la g i i dinh ed eo sd khoa hge v i tinh tin cay ve su tien trien tUOng lai cua cic mdi quan he gida kinh te - xa hdi, GDP, p h i t t h i i nha kinh, BDKH va mUc nUdc bien ding LUu y ring, kjeh b i n BDKH khie vdi d u b i o thdi tiet va d u bao hau la nd dua quan diem ve mdi ring bude gida p h i t trien va h i n h ddng Nude bien dang (NBD) la sU d i n g mUc nude eua dai dUOng t r i n toan cau, khdng bao gom trieu, nude d i n g bao Nude bien dang tai mdt vj tri n i o ed the cao hon hoac thap hon so vdi trung binh toan cau vi ed sU khie ve nhiet eua dai duang v i cic yeu to khie 2.Tac dong, Snh hudng cua bien doi hau BDKH the hien rd nhat d sU gia tang cae h i i n tugng thdi tiet cUc doan va t h i i n tai, c i ve sd lugng lan cudng dp Trong tinh trang nang ndng gay gat keo dai vao mua he keo theo ban ban d d dpi t r i n d i i n rpng, thi nhdng nam gan day sd eon bao ed cUdng dp manh cung xuat hien nhieu hon Nhieu b i o cd quy dao di chuyen bat thudng, phde tap, khd du doan va mua mua b i o cung ket thuc mudn hOn Trong khoang 1.000 nam trUde, nhiet dp be mat eua t r i i dat cd t i n g , ed g i i m nhUng khdng dang ke, ed the ndi l i dn djnh Tuy nhien, vdng 200 nam trd lai day, die biet la vdng may chue nam vda qua, cdng nghiep hda p h i t trien, nhan loai bat dau khai thie than d i , dau Ida, sd dung triet de eic ngudn nang lupng t d cie nhiin lieu hda thach, cung vdi eic hpat ddng cdng nghiep tang len, bat dau p h i t t h i i vao bau quyen mdt lUpng khiCOj, Nitodxit, M i t a n khien eho nhiet dp be mat t r i i dat ndng l i n Theo mdt b i o cio mdi nhat eCia to ehUe LHQ, nguyen nhan cua hien tUOng BDKH 90% eon ngudi gay ra, ehi cd 10% la t u n h i i n Cae chuyen gia tren B HOI KHOA HOC PHAT TRIEN NONG T H O N VifT NAM cic linh vUc mdi trUdng va tupng thuy van cung da nhin djnii: nguyin nhan chinh lam BDKH t r i i dat l i sU gia tang cic hoat ddng tao cac chat t h i i nha kinh Theo cac nha khoa hpc, hau la mde trung binh eua thdi tiet mot khoang thdi gian v i khdng gian nhat djnh BDKH la mot dieu cue ky nguy hiem, de dpa den sU tdn tai eua ngUdi t r i n t r i i dat Nguy hiem nhat la hau t r i i dat ndng l i n khien muc nUde bien dang cao bang tan dan den su ngap ung d cac vung dat thap ven bien va cie d i o nhd, lam cho hang ti ngUdi cd the chju t i c ddng mUc nUde bien dang cao Theo dinh g i i cua Ngan hang The gidi (2007), Viet Nam la mdt n i m nude s i bj anh hUdng nghiim trpng cua BDKH v i NBD, vung ddng bang sdng Hdng va sdng M i Cdng s i bi ngap nang nhat Neu mUc NBD cao 1,0 m s i cd khoing 10% d i n sd bi anh hudng true tiep, ton that ddi vdi GDP khoing 10% Neu muc NBD cao 3,0 m se cd khoing 25% dan sd bi i n h hudng trUc tiep va ton that ddi vdi GDP len tdi 25% (J Viet Nam, theo sd Miu quan trie khoing 70 n i m qua (1931-2000) cho thay nhiit dp trung binh nam d i t i n g khoing 0,7°C, muc nUdc bien da dang khoing 0,20 m Hiin tupng El-Nino, La-Nina cang t i c ddng manh me den VietNam BDKH t h u e s u d i lam cho cic thien tai, dac b i i t la bao, lu, han han cang i e Hit Theo tinh t o i n , nhiit dp trung binh d Viet Nam cd the t i n g l i n S^CvamUc nude bien ed the d i n g 1,0 m v i o nam 2100 Neu mUc nUde bien ding 1,0 m, khoing 40 nghin km^ ddng bang ven bien Viit Nam s i bi ngap hing nam, dd 90% dien tich vung DSCL bi ngap Nhin tong the, kinh te - x i hoi va nen ndng nghiip nUdc ta, cd the phac hpa mot sd tac ddng BDKH, NBD tren cic mat sau day: -I-Tie ddng cda BDKH ddi vdi t h i i n tai, ngudi, cay trdng va vat nudi, nhU lam tang tan sd, eUdng dp, tinh bien ddng v i tinh cue doan eua cie hiin tupng thdi tiet nguy hiem nhu bao, td, ldc , cac thien tai liin quan den nhiet v i mUa nhuthdi tiet khd ndng, lu lut, ngap ung hay han han, x i m nhap man,, cic djch b i n h t r i n ngudi, tren gia sue, gia cam v i t r i n cay trdng Thay ddi, bien ddng ranh gidi gida cac vung man, Ip, ngpt se t i e ddng Idn den he thdng canh t i e truyen thdng, co sd tang va ddi sdng x i hdi eua ngudi dan, mdi trudng b\ d i o Idn, m i n x i m nhap sau, thieu ngudn nude ngot tram trpng Cie hien tUong xdi Id va xam thUc bd bien, eda sdng s i dien manh me hon + Tic ddng cua BDKH ddi vdi tai nguyen nudc, nhu che mua thay doi cd the gay lu lut nghiem trpng vao mua mua v i han han v i o mua khd, g i y khd khan cho viec cap nude v i tang mau thuan sd dung nude + Tic ddng cua BDKH ddi vdi ndng nghiip nhu t i e ddng den sinh trudng, nang suit cay trdng, thdi vu gieo trdng, l i m tang nguy co lay lan siu benh hai cay trong, i n h hudng den sinh sin, sinh trudng eua gia sue, gia cam, lam t i n g k h i nang sinh benh, truyen dich cua gia sue, gia cam, g i y nguy co thu hep dien ticii dat ndng nghiip Mdt phan dang ke dien tich dat ndng nghiep d vdng dat thap ddng b i n g ven bien sdng Cdu Long bj ngap m i n NBD, neu khdng cd eac biin p h i p dng m phd thich hgp + Ddi vdi sin xuat luong thue, nhat l i sin xuat Ida gao, dat Ida se bj thu hep nude bien tran vao nhiem man, thay doi, bien ddng ranh gidi gida cic vung man, Ig, ngot se t i c ddng Idn den he thdng canh t i e Ida, eo sd tang va ddi sdng xa hdi eua ngudi d i n , cic hien tugng xdi Id v i xam thUe bd bien, eda sdng se dien manh me hon + Tie ddng cda BDKH ddl vdi l i m nghiep nhu he sinh t h i i ven bien DBSCL bi i n h hUdng lam giim dien tich rdng ngap man, t i c dong xau den rdng tram va rUng trdng tren dat bi nhiem phen Nhiit dd v i mde dp khd han gia tang cung lam tang nguy cO chiy rUng, p h i t trien sau benh, dich binh + Tie ddng cua BDKH ddi vdi thu^ sin nhu nudc man lan siu vao ndi dia, lam mat nPi sinh sdng thich hop eua mdt sd loai thuy sin nude ngpt Cudng dd va lupng mUa Idn lam cho ndng dp mudi g i i m di mdt thdi gian dan den sinh vat nude Ig v i ven bd, dac b i i t l i nhuyen the hai vd (ngheu, ngao, so, ) bj chet khdng chdng chju noi vdi nong dd muoi thay doi +Tie ddng cda BDKH doi vdi giao thdng v i n t i i nhu lam tang nguy cP ngap nUde cic tuyen giao thdng quan trpng, tang xdi Id mat va nen dUdng bd, tang nguy cP xdi I d v i can kiet cac luong dudng thdy -I- Tie ddng cda BDKH ddi vdi cdng nghiep v i xay dUng nhu phai ddi mat nhieu hOn vdi nguy co ngap lut v i t h i c h thUe tieu t h o i t nude d cic dd thj Idn va xU ly nUdc t h i i nhiem ban t d cie khu cdng nghiip + Tie ddng eCia BDKH ddi vdi sUe kho§ ngUdi nhu nhiit tang, t i c ddng t i i u cue ddi vdi sdc khoe ngudi, dan den gia t i n g mdt so nguy cO ddi vdi tudi g i i , ngudi m i e b i n h tim mach, benh than kinh; Lam tang k h i nang xiy mdt sd benh nhiit ddi nhu sdt ret, sdt xuat huyet, s6 luong ngudi bj benh nhiem khuan de lay lan L i m t i n g sd ngudi chet t h i i n tai;Tang ngheo ddi giam thu nhip, mat n h i cda Nhdng ddi tUpng de bj ton thuong nhat la nhdng ndng d i n nghio, eic dan tdc thieu sd vdng sau, vung xa, ngUdi gia, t r i em va phu nd -1^ Bin canh dd, BDKH cung ed t i e ddng triic tiep v i gian tiep den eic hpat ddng v i n hda, du lich, thuong mai, djch vu Chiing han linh vUc du Ijch, NBD i n h hudng den eac bai t i m ven bien, nhieu b i i t i m dep ed the bi mat di, mot sd khie bj day sau han vao dat lien, anh hudng den viec khai thie Cie khu du ljch sinh t h i i va eic cdng trinh tang lien quan d e i e vung thap ven bien ed the bi ngap, budc p h i i di chuyen, hoat ddng kinh doanh bj ngUng t r i + Nude ta ed bd bien dai 3.260 km, hon trieu km2 lanh h i i , t r i n 3.000 d i o gan bd va hai quan d i o xa bd Hien tugng BDKH vdi tinh trang NBD lam tang dten tich dat lien bj ngap lut, g i y khd khan eho t h o i t nude, tang uy hiep sU an t o i n eda nhdng vung ed d i bien, l i m xdi Id bd bien va nhiem man nguon nUdc, i n h hudng den sin xuat ndng nghiip va sinh hoat eua d i n euvung ven bien, g i y nguy ca doi vdi cae hoat ddng khai t h i e va nudi trdng, d i n h bat thuy sin eua ngU dan ven bien -I- Trong eic thap nien g i n diy, DBSCL da va dang ganh chju nhdng t i c ddng BDKH g i y n i n , dd Dien dan nong thon mdi lu ed nhdng bien ddng cang Idn gida n i m lu Idn v i lu nhd, bao nhieu va manh hon, han b i n nghiim trpng hon, chiy rdng, sat Id bd sdng, td ldc xuat hiin eing nguy hiem hon Chi tinh 10 nam qua, DBSCL da ed: nam lien tiep 2000-2002 cd lu Idn, nam 2000 la lu idn ljch sd, nam lien tiep cd lu dddi trung binh; lan ed bao Idn bd va i n h hudng den DBSCL la bao Linda nam 1997 va bao Durian nam 2006; nam lien DBSCL gap han, dac biet han ket hpp ddng chiy kiet t r i n sdng Mekong vao nam 2004; td 16c xuat hien nhieu va gay hau q u i nghiim trong; chiy rung x i y d nhieu noi, dac b i i t dot chiy rdng Vudn Qude gia U MinhThuong vao n i m 2002; sat Id bd sdng xiy vdi sd lan, sd vi tri va cudng cao; NBD ehua ed sd lieu cu the doi vdi vdng bien DBSCL, song vdi viic tang khoing 0,2 m dvung bien vinh Bac Bd (Hdn Dau) 50 nam qua, ed the khang dinh la mue nude bien dDBSCL cung da tang len ChUtfng trinh muc tieu, chien lUtfc va khung chi/cmg trinh khoa hoc cong nghe quoc gia urng pho, gJtiiT) thieu tac dong cda bien ddi hau Nhan thUerd i n h hUdng eua BDKH, Chinh phu Viet Nam da sdm tham gia phe chuan Cdng Udc khung LHQ v^ bien ddi hau nam 1994 va phe chuan Nghj djnh thu Kyoto n i m 2002 Ngay 3/12/2007, Chinh phu da Nghj quyet so 60/2007/NQ-CP ve viic giao cho Bp Tai nguyen & Mdi trUdng chu tri, phdi hpp vdi cac bd, nganh lien quan x i y dung "Chuong trinh muc t i i u qude gia dng phd vdi BDKH toan cau" Chuang trinh d i dupe xiy dung v i lay y kien eCia cie nganh va cac dja phuong, sau dupe bo sung h o i n chinh Ngay 02/12/2008,Thu tudng Chinh phu da ban hanh quy^t djnh sd 158/2008/QD-TTg Phi duyet Chuang trinh muc tieu qude gia dng phd vdi bien ddi h i u Quyet djnh n i u rd cie ndi dung: Quan diem, nguyen t i c ehi dao v i pham vi thue hien chuong trinh; Muc tieu eua ehuang trinh; Nhiim vu v i giii p h i p thUe hiin chuang trinh BDKH v i NBD l i mot van de rat phUc tap, t i c ddng tdi tat ei cic linh vUc, viia true tiep, vda g i i n tiep, t d t u nhiin den kinh te-xa hpi tren mdt pham vi rdng Idn va lau dai Vi vay, Ung phd vdi BDKH va NBD can phii duac tien hanh d tat ea cie cap tUTrung uang den dja phuong, d tat ea eac nganh t d q u i n ly t i i nguyen den sd dung va khai thie tai nguyin, d tat ea cie linh vUc t d so cap den thU cap, bang sU phoi hgp va hgp t i c chat e h i mdt chien luge tong the chung d cap quoc gia v i vdi cdng dong qude te Hay ndi mdt cich tong q u i t hon li:"U'ng phd vdi BDKH mang tinh quoc gia, khu vuc, t o i n cau v i p h i i duge coi la n h i i m vu cua c i h i thong chinh trj, cCia toan xa hdi va mgi ngUdi d i n dugc tien hanh t r i n nguyin tac phat trien ben vdng, tong hpp, nganh, lien nganh, vung, l i i n vung." Bg f N & MT va Bd NN & PTNT la cie Bd sdm to chdc trien khai chuang trinh muc t i i u quoc gia Ung phd vdi BDKH Nam 2009 Bd da phdi hop x i y dung v i ban hanh "Chien lupc qude gia Ung phd v i g i i m thieu t i e ddng eda BDKH den p h i t trien ben vdng nganh ndng nghiep" Chien luge n i u rd cie ndi dung: BDKH va t i e ddng eda BDKH den qua trinh p h i t trien kinh te xa hdi; Chien lupc thich Ung va dng phd vdi BDKH, NBD; Ke hoach hanh ddng qude gia ve dng phd v i g i i m nhe t i e ddng cua BDKH, NBD; v i To chdc thUe hien chien lupc Ddng thdi Bd NN & PTNT cung da de xuat nhUng dU an, de tai nghien edu lam rd hon t i c ddng eua NBD den nhdng linh vUe cua nganh, dd dac biet luu y den t i c ddng eua NBD ddi vdi ngap lut v i x i m n h i p man, cung nhu t i c ddng cua chinh sU gia tang ngap lut va xam nhap man len sin xuat ndng-lim nghiep-thuy sin v i ndng thdn, ndng d i n , de cap ky hon t i e ddng t i i u cue cua BDKH den cdng trinh thuy lpi (hoat ddng va van hanh he thdng hiin ed, t i c ddng den hieu q u i cdng trinh, khd khan chia se va p h i n bo nguon nUde, t i e ddng len he thong cdng trinh phdng t r i n h thien tai hiin nay, thiet ke cdng trinh mdi phii can nhic den t i e ddng eua BOKH) Bd TN & MT v i Bd Khoa hoe v i Cdng nghe cung da phdi hgp dua mdt "Khung ehuong trinh Khoa hpc cdng nghe qude gia ve BDKH" vdi eic ndi dung: Cae thdng tin chung ve khung chuang trinh; Muc tieu va ndi dung nghiin cdu cCia chuong trinh; Sin pham khoa hpc cdng n g h i chinh; Cae ehi tieu danh g i i chuong trinh; va dU kien nhu cau cin ddi kinh phi t d ngin sach nha nude de thue hiin ehuong trinh Cac hoat ddng dng phd vdi BDKH can dUOc tien hanh cd trpng t i m , trpng diem, Ung phd vdi nhdng t i c ddng cap bich trudc mat va nhdng t i e ddng tiem tang ve lau dai Cac nhiem vu dng phd vdi BDKH p h i i dupe Idng ghep vdi cae chien lupc, ke hoach, quy hoach p h i t trien d eac cap, cic nganh, dac b i i t la quy trinh danh g i i mdi trudng chien lUpc, cic van b i n p h i p luat va the che chinh sich eua Nha nudc va eda nganh De lam g i i m toe dd cCia BDKH khdng edn each n i o hon eon ngudi phii tiet kiem ning lupng, thay doi nhan thUc ve sd dung nhiin lieu, dUa cic dang n i n g lUpng khie: nang lupng nhien liiu sinh hpc, n i n g luong gid, nang lUpng mat trdi vao thay the eic nhien lieu hda thach nhU: than da, dau Ida Bdi viic lam dung eac loai nhien liiu dang lam phat t h i i khdng mdt lupng cacbon g i y h i i u dng nha kinh.Trong ndng nghiep va l i m nghiep, can ngin chin ed hieu q u i nan chat p h i rUng, sddung phan bdn hdu code ngan chin q u i trinh t h i i Mitan v i o khdng Mat khie, can p h i i tich cue trien khai nhdng bien phap thich dng, nang cao n h i n thdc ve BOKH v i chu ddng Ung phd vdi BDKH de tranh nhdng thiet hai cd the x i y Cic phuong tien truyen thdng, thdng tin cd mdt vai trd het sUe quan trgng Li nude chiu i n h hudng n i n g ne n i n chung ta can ddng gdp v i o no luc chung eua the gidi bang cac chinh sach nham g i i m nhe tie ddng v i thieh dng vdi BOKH; mat khae, can phii ed gang hon nUa de thich Ung, nhat i i eac linh vUc l i p ke hoach, tang cudng kha n i n g thich dng eua cdng ddng, thi hanh nhdng chinh sach tich cue eac nganhi kinh te chju anh hudng cua BDKH Cu the l i i p dung cdng nghe, sU dung nang lupng hieu qua, tiet k i i m nang lUpng, t i n g eUdng sd dung n i n g lupng tai sinh, trdng rdng va b i o ve rdng, cai tien ky t h u i t tudi t i i u ndng nghiep Dae biet l i can chu trgng dao tao nguon n h i n lUc cao, du k h i nang i HOI KHOA HOC P H A T T R I I N NONG THON VIET NAM d i p dng eho cic dia phuong, co quan, ban nganh khae nham thuc hien tdt cie nhiem vu thudc Chuong trinh muc tieu quoc gia Ung phd vdi bien doi hau Tddd, hudng tdi hdi nhap qude te qua viic tham gia cic dien dan hoac phoi hpp thuc hien cac de t i i khoa hpc thudc linh vuc niy Cac kjch bin bien doi hau, nUdc bien dang cho Viet Nam Mye tieu cda viic xay dung cie kich b i n BOKH, NBD eho VN l i dUa nhUng thdng tin cO ban ve xu the BOKH, NBD eua VN tUong lai tUong dng vdi eic kjeh b i n khae ve p h i t trien kinh te - x i hdi t o i n eau dan den cac toe dp p h i t t h i i nha kinh khae Cie kjeh b i n BDKH, NBD se la dinh hUdng ban dau de cac Bd, Nginh, Dia phuong danh g i i eic tie ddng cd the cd eua BDKH ddi vdi eac ITnh vUc kinh te - x i hpi, xay dung va trien khai ke hoach hanh ddng nhim thich dng va giim thieu t i c ddng tiem t i n g eua BDKH tuong lai Kich ban BDKH la g i i djnh cd co sd khoa hoc va tinh tin cay ve sU tien trien tUOng lai eCia cic mdi quan h i gida kinh te - xa hpi, tdng thu nhap qude d i n , p h i t t h i i nha kinh, BDKH va mUc NBD, the hien mdi rang budc gida p h i t trien va hanh ddng t o i n cau tUOng lai Hien da cd nhieu qude gia, nhieu khu vUe x i y dung kjeh b i n BDKH vdi quy md khu vuc, qude gia va eic vung hau hoac pham vi nhd hon Ve khung thdi gian, hau het cac kich b i n BDKH thudng xay dUng eho tdng thap ky cua t i i ^ k;^ 21 Nam 2009, tren ePsdtong hpp cae nghiin edu va ngoai nUde, BpTai nguyen & Mdi trudng da xay dUng va cdng bd kjch b i n BDKH, NBD cho Viet Nam Kjeh b i n niy mUe dp ehi tiet mdi chi gidi han eho vung h i u v i d i i ven bien Viet Nam Thue hiin sUchi dao cua Chinh phCi ve viec cap n h i t v i chi tiet hda cic kjeh b i n BOKH, NBD cho Viet Nam, Bp TN&MT giao cho Viin Khoa hoe Khi tupng Thdy v i n va Mdi trudng chu tri, phdi hop vdi cie co quan nghien edu va cac don vi quin ly n h i nude, x i y dung kich b i n BDKH, NBD ehi tiet cho Viet Nam Tinh toan mdi nhat cCia phiin b i n ban hanh nam 2011, d a k h a i t h i e t d i d a e i e n g u n s l i e u , d d lieu, cic dieu kiin hau cu the cua Viet Nam cap n h i t den nam 2010 va sin pham eCia eic md hinh h i u , cdng cu thdng ke dupe Ida chpn chuyen biet eho Viit Nam Vl the, eic kich b i n BDKhl, NBD ed mde dp ehi tiet den don vi h i n h chinh cap tinh va cac khu vuc ven bien, die biet d i bd sung mdt sd yeu td cue tri hau, phuc vu cho cdng t i c tinh toan thiet ke va quy hoach (cd b i o cio day du dinh kim) AI B bien t h i i n theo thdi gian rat khae nhau, A2 va AI Fl cung bien t h i i n rat khie SU khie b i i t quan trpng gida hai phien b i n n i m 2009 va 2011 la d cho: muc nudc dupe du bao theo p h i i n b i n 2011 thay doi theo vung (khd ap dung han kich b i n n i m 2009 dU bao thang so) Lupng mua lai d u b i o thay ddi theo mua n i n chi i p dung dupe vdi ngoii Bac, dU b i o nam 2009 la theo t h i n g nen de sd dung han Phiin b i n 2009 chi tiet hOn ve bien ddi theo thdi gian (tinh cho tdng thap ky eua the \(.)/ 21) nhung thd han ve phan bd khdng gian (ehl tinh cho vung hiu) Phiin b i n 2011 the hien sU p h i n bd khdng gian ehi tiet hon thdng qua h i thdng cie b i n nhung khdng cho thdng tin cu the ve sU bien ddi qua tdng giai doan the k)f 21, ngoai t r d kich b i n B2 dd nhiet dp trung binh n i m va lUOng mUa n i m chi tiet den tdng t h i p ky, cic yeu td khie lay hai moc thdi gian l i gida va cudi the ky 21 Phiin b i n 2011 ed t h i m cac k!eh b i n bien doi eda nhiet dp toi thap va tdi cao trung binh, so ed nhiet dp cao nhat t r i n 35 dp C Cac chUtmg trinh, difan quoc te ve bien doi h|u thUc hien d Vi&t Nam va co lien quan den Viet Nam Sing kien Thich dng Bien ddi Khi h i u -CCAI (Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative) cda Uy hdi sdng Mekong qude te (MRC) duge dUa va thdng qua tai phien hpp lan thd29 eua Uy ban Liin hpp MRC v i dupe Hdi ddng Uy hdi sdng M i Cdng qude te phe chuan tai ky hpp lan thU 17 v i o t h i n g nam 2009 CCAI da ket thuc giai doan khdi dau vdi cic bUdc trien khai va to chdc thUe hien ban dau Cie bai hpc giai doan da dUpc xem xet den q u i trinh xay dUng tai l i i u Chuong trinh, phu hgp vdi Ke hoach chien luge eda MRC giai doan 2011 -2015.Tai lieu Chuong trinh CCAI (2011-2015) dUpc Uy ban Liin hpp MRC thdng qua tai p h i i n hop lan thU 34 vao thing nam 2011 CCAI duoc coi nhu la mot sing kien khu vUe hpp t i e dai han de ho trp cie nUdc v i i n (Campuchia, Lio, Thii Lan, va Viit Nam) thich dng vdi cae t i e ddng nghiem trpng va eic thach thUe gay bdi sU BOKH d cap khu VUe, qude gia, va cdng dong b i n g each xiy dUng mdt tien trinh ed tinh he thong l i p ke hoach, thue thi va chia s§ nhdng thieh Ung dd Van kiin Chuong trinh 2011-2015 n i u chi tiet cae muc dich, cic ket q u i va eic sin pham chinh eua CCAI Bao gom muc dich, 17 ket q u i va 66 sin pham chinh Cic moc thdi gian cho eic s i n pham quan trgng d i dupe xac dinh de d i m b i o rang CCAI se duoc thue hiin vdi mdt su can bang ve tien dp c i c ket q u i v i ed Su gidng gida kjch b i n BDKH n i m 2009 va tam nhin d i i han mang tinh ben vdng 2011 la d cho: deu duge x i y dung dUa tren kich b i n SU can thiet ed mdt Ke hoach thUc hiin chUOng p h i t t h i i nha kinh cua IPCC (Ban lien chinh phu ve trinh - PIP (Program Implementation Plan) 2011-2015 bien doi h i u 2007): Bl (thap), B2, AI B (trung binh) eho CCAI da dupe xic djnh va cae khii niem va Id trinh va A2, AI Fl (cao) Ci phiin b i n deu sd dung phUOng x i y dung PIP 2011-2015 da dupe p h i duyet tai Phiin p h i p x i y dung kich b i n gidng la downsealing hop Ban Chi dao lan t h d hai eua CCAI vao 16 t h i n g thdng ke Oeu lay thdi ky 1980-1999 lam thdi ky so sanh 11 nam 2011 tai Phndm Penh, Campuchia {hay thdi ky chui'n - baseline) Deu coi B2 v i A1B l i PIP 2011-2015 se giup Van phdng CCAI tai Ban thu kjch b i n trung binh, A2 va AlFI la kich ban cao B2 va ky Oy hoi Me cdng va cie qude gia l i p ke hoach tot B Klioa I19C - Phat trien nong thon trudc eic nguon luc cua minh de t i n g cUdng hiiu q u i hpp t i e v i phdi hpp viic thUe hien eic boat ddng eda CCAI BOKH la van de mang tinh chat toan cau dupe ea loii ngudi quan t i m Chinh phd da lap Oy ban quoc gia ve BDKH trUc tiep Thu tUdng Chinh phu l i m ChCi tjch Hon hai chue v i i n , gom cac vj lanh dao cao cap Chinh phu va eua cae Bd, Nganh, ndi len tam quan trgng eua BDKH ddi vdi sU p h i t trien ben vdng cda dat nudc Phia qude te d i n h gia cao Viet Nam cd dugc cac cam ket chinh trj manh m i tdcap lanh dao cao nhat "Nhdng bUdc tien ve chinh sach va luat p h i p nhu xay dung chien luge BDKH, ke hoach hanh ddng quoc gia, ehuong trinh hanh ddng cua cic tinh, day manh long ghep van de BDKH vao tat ei eic chuong trinh, ke hoach, d u i n nhanh chdng cd dupe thdi gian qua nhd vao nhdng cam ket chinh trj dd" TU sau eude hpp Ban Chi dao quoc gia lan thd nhat, Viet Nam da huy ddng dupe hon 1,2ty USD t i i trp qude te cho cae hoat ddng dng phd vdi bien doi hau d Viet Nam Cac chUOng trinh dang chu y bao gdm 500 trieu USD tU Chinh phu Nhat Bin eho Chuong trinh hd trp dng phd vdi BDKH (SP-RCC) nam 2010-2012; 250 trieu USD td Quy Cdng nghe sach (CTF) eho eac du an giao thdng dd thj va nang lUpng; 100 t r i i u USD cho Chuong trinh REDD td Chinh phu Na-Uy; va 49 du an CDM duoc dang ky Bin canh do, nhieu ehuong trinh t i i tra khie duoc dam phin, thda thuin (khoing 1,31^ USD) To ehUe Oxfam (Anh) da ky chinh thdc mdt d u i n keo d i i nam ve phdng ngUa va giim nhe t h i m hoa v i thieh Ung vdi BDKH tai trg eho tinh Ben Tre vdi ngan sich khoang trieu USD Du i n duoc thue hien tren dja b i n cua 15 xa ven bien thudc huyen Binh Dai, Thanh Phu va BaTrL DU i n t i p trung vao ITnh vUe chinh: t i n g eudng cdng t i c quan ly rdi ro t h i m hga ed sutham gia eua cdng ddng dja phuang; tang them ngudn thu n h i p va gdp phan d i m b i o an ninh luong thue eho ngUdi nghio thdng qua cie hoat ddng thieh Ung sinh ke da dang; v i xay ddng h i thdng cung cap nUdc n h i m g i i m thieu benh lay truyen ngudn nUdc khdng hgp v i sinh Nhat Bin da vien trg khdng hoin lai 100% sd tien 2,082 t r i i u USD cho dU an: "Thieh Ung vdi BDKH cho p h i t trien ben vdng ndng nghiip, ndng thdn vung ven DBSCL" Du i n thUe hien tai tinh vung DBSCL la Tien Giang, Ben tre, Tra Vinh, Sdc Tring, Bae Liiu, Ci Mau va Kiin Giang Co quan p h i t trien Quoc te My (USAID) cdng bd chuong trinh keo dai nam n h i m giup VN Ung phd vdi t i c ddng cCia BDKH, sd dung dat: ehuang trinh "Rdng va ddng bang VN" (tai trp 29 trieu USD) v i chuong trinh "Ning lugng sach d VN" (tai tro 11 trieu USD), vdi tong g i i tri t i i trp t r i n 40 trieu USD, thgc hien tU t h i n g 10/2012 den 10/2017, phu iigp vdi ehupng trinh BDKH cua VN cd chi^n lupc t i n g trudng xanh Nhiimg thach thuTc quy hoach nong nghiep long ghep vdi thich iimg, gISm thieu tac dong cua BOKH Cac ket q u i dat cdng t i c quy hoach ndng nghiep cho den la dang khich l i , quy hoach d i djnh hudng tdt cho chi dao sin xuat v i xic djnh cic hang muc dau tu eho ndng nghiep Tuy nhien, bdi cinh hien nay, nhdng ngUdi l i m cdng t i c quy hoach ndng nghiip cung gap p h i i nhdng khd khin, thich thdc viic nghiin cdu, Idng ghep thieh Ung vdi BDKH vao eic phuong i n p h i t trien tuong lai, anh hudng den tien dd va chat luong cua t i i liiu quy hoach, dd la: + Thieu eic kien thdc chung ve BDKH va cac d u b i o t i e ddng ve dinh tinh va djnh luong cua nd den ndng nghiip Hiin nay, nhUng thdng tin d u b i o ve mue NBD eua BpTN&MT mdi ddng lai d cap vung, chUa dap Ung y i u cau lap quy hoach ndng nghiep cho cap tieu vung va eho cap tinh, t h i n h phd -1- Trong viing kinh te ndng nghiip eda Viit Nam, thi DBSCL l i viing luu vUe sdng Mekong, dupe du b i o la vung bj i n h hudng t i c ddng cua BDKH nang nhat d Viit Nam, nhung thdng tin d u b i o t i e ddng eua viec khai thie ngudn nudc sdng Mekong d t r i n thUpng ngudn, die b i i t la nhUng i n h hudng eda viic xiy dung cic cdng trinh thuy dien cua cie qude gia thupng lUu den lUu luong ddng chiy cda sdng vao DBSCL chUa duge d i n h g i i , xic djnh eu the de l i m c i n eU bd tri sin xuat + Thieu cic md hinh du b i o t i n g trudng kinh te, tang trudng ndng nghiep, md hinh sddung tdi sddung dat dieu kiin bi t i e ddng i n h hudng eda BDKH + Cd nhieu khd khan viec dmh dang eic quy hoach va cac cdng cu cho tien trinh lap quy hoach ndng nghiip Idng ghep thieh Ung, g i i m thieu t i e ddng cda BDKiH -1- Thieu d d lieu va eo sd khoa hoc de dUa sU thich dng cua BDKH nhU la mdt td chinh q u i trinh lap quy hoach ndng nghiep va viic xic djnh cie phuong i n quy hoach ndng nghiep the hiin duac sU Idng ghep thieh dng BOKH d cap vdng, cap tinh, d cac nganh sin xuat + Do tinh dac trUng dai ban va sU chua rd rang cua BDKH so vdi chu ky trung va ngan ban cua cie ddi tugng sin xuat eda nganh ndng nghiep, nen khd khin viec xay dUng chinh sich tUOng ddng eua thieh Ung vdi BDKH eac phuong i n quy hoach ndng nghiep -1- Thieu cung cap eac chien luge v i cic ke hoach quoc gia khie de ho trg eho viec l i p v i thUe hien quy hoach ndng nghiep long ghep thieh dng vdi BDKH cap vung,tinh + Thieu sU hgp tie, trao doi va chia s i kinh n g h i i m ve lap quy hoach ndng nghiep thich Ung vdi BOKH gida cic quoc gia ed nhdng dieu kien tUang dong + NgUdi lap quy hoach ndng nghiep chu yeu dua vao kien thdc v i kinh nghiim nUdc, thieu eic phuang phip, ky nang p h i n tich va cdng cu de d i n h gia va lap quy hoach ndng nghiip thieh Ung vdi BDKH -H Thieu hieu biet eac b i i hge va ket qua cua cae hoat ddng trinh dien ndng nghiep ed sU thieh Ung vdi BOKH eua eac nginh, cic vung, va cua qude gia (Xem tiep 33) B Diin dan nong thon md\ 3.8 Giii phap thiet thue nhat gdp phan hoan t h i i n chinh sach v i thUc hiin cd hiiu q u i viec q u i n iy rUng cdng dong d Viet Nam la Nhi nudc can ed chinh sich, CO che hudng loi phii hgp ddi vdi rdng giao cho cdng ddng thdn/bin; can dPn gian hoa thCi tue giao dat rUng eho ddng bao cac dan tpc Chinh quyen dja phuong can xic dinh giao dat giao rUng cho cdng ddng, thdn/ b i n la van de Uu tien bd tri kinh phi va thue sU quan tam trien khai; can soat lai ranh gidi, trang t h i i rUng, nhu cau sddung dat rdng eilia cdng ddng de g i i i quyet tdt hiin trang chdng lan dat rdng, tranh chap gida cac chu rdng, thUc hien cd hiiu q u i cdng t i e giao dat, giao rdng cho cdng dong thdn/bin 3.9 Kieu td chdc nda nha nUdc (semi-autonomous) q u i n ly rUng cdng ddng t r i n thUc te d mdt sd dja phuong la k h i phu hop Can xac lap eO che hop t i e v i ddi t i e giUa cic td chdc b i n v i ngoai cdng dong q u i n ly rdng.De xic lap vi tri p h i p ly v i tinh phap nhin eua cdng ddng q u i n ly rdng cdng ddng viic hinh cic ehd the kinh te dai dien cdng ddng de ed dCi p h i p nhan q u i n ly rdng cdng ddng va van de mdi can khuyen khich nghiin eUu, thi diem Tai lieu tham khSo / Bo Ndng nghiep vd PTNT, Chuang trinh hS trp ngdnh Ldm nghiep vd doi tdc, "Cam nang ngdnh Ldm nghiip, Chuang Ldm Nghiep cdng dong", Bdo cdo dudn, Hd Ndi nam 2006 Ninh Vdn Hiep, Vien CISDOMA,"Xdy diJng vd phdt tnen rdng cdng ddng - Mdt phuang thdc mUu sinh ben vdng cOa ngudi ddn song ke can vdi rdng", Bdo cdo chuyin de Vu Vdn Me, "Xdc lap quyen quan lyr vd sddung rdng cdng dong", Bdo cdo tai Hdi thdo quoc gia ve rdng cdng dong, nam 2009 Nguyin Bd Ngdi, "Qudn Ly Rdng Cong Dong d Viet Nam: Thuc trang vdn de vd gidi phdp" Bdo cdo tai Hdi thdo quoc gia ve rimg cong dong, nam 2009 Nguyen Bd Ngdi, Tran Ngcpc The, "Su tham gia cua ngudi ddn qudn ly rdng ben vdng - trudng hap qudn ly rdng ben vdng dtJa vao cdng dong tai tinh Bdc Can", Bdo cdo chuyen de ndm 2009 Qudn Ly Rdng Cdng Dong Viet Nam: Chinh Sdch vd Tht/c Tien, Ky yeu hoi thdo quoc gia ve qudn ly rdng cdng dong, Hd Npi 5/6/2009 Trung tdm Phdt trii'n sdng kien cong dong vd mdi trUdng (C&E).Hdi KHICT Ldm nghiep Thda Thiin Hue, Chi CLIC Kiem Idm Qudng Nam, Bdo cdo hpi thdo "Mot so gidi phdp ho tra cdng ddng sd dtjng quyen vd nghia vtj qudn ly' rifng tu nhien tai Thda Thien Huevd Qudng Nam" Hue, ndm 2012 UBND tinh Hd Tinh, Bdo cdo de dn "Qudn ly bdo ve vd phdt trien rdng ben vdng giai doan 2012-2015, dinh hudng den 2020" Hd Tinh ndm 2012 Vien Nghien cdu Sinh thdi Chinh sdch Xd hdi (SPERI), Sd Ndng nghiip vd Phdt trien ndng thdn Nghe An "Qudn /y rimg cong dong: Chinh sdch vd thuc tien" Bdo cdo Hoi thdo, TP Vinh ndm 2011 10 www.tailieu.vn BIEH DOI KHI HAU UA (dip theo trang 29) + Thieu viic dinh lupng eac phan tich tinh rui ro, tinh de bj ton thuong cda cie t i e ddng bdi BOKH va dua cic b i i n p h i p thieh dng, giim thieu t i e ddng eda BDKH cic phuong i n quy hoach ndng nghiep + Thieu sU t i n g cudng n i n g lue the che hoach dmh chinh sich va lap quy hoach ndng nghiep long ghep thieh dng vdi BOKH -I-Thieu tai chinh cho viic nghiin cdu v i lap quy hoach ndng nghiip long ghep vdi thich dng, g i i m thieu t i e ddng cCia BDKH d Viet Nam -I-Thieu sUphdi hpp ddng bp nghien euLi ve BDKH va thieu l i p quy hoach ndng nghiip thieh Ung vdi BDKH d t i t ei cae cap (cdng dong, dja phUPng, vung, qude gia) Thio luan 1) Viet Nam la mot nUdc ndng nghiip, de khai thie tdt tiem nang die trUng d vdng kinh te ndng nghiep ei nude, cdng t i e quy hoach ndng nghiep rat dupe quan tam, vi nd la cP sd de xac dinh phuong hudng phat trien, chuan bj cic hang muedautUvi ehi dao p h i t trien sin xuat mdt thdi ky 10 nam v i tam nhin 20-30 n i m 2) Van de t i e ddng eua BOKH ndi l i n nhU l i mot cinh b i o cho nen kinh te ndi chung va sin xuat ndng nghiep ndi riing Can cd chien luge thieh dng, g i i m thieu tac ddng cda BDKH de sin xuat ndng nghiip p h i t trien vUng ben 3) Quy hoach ndng nghiep long ghep vdi thich Ung va giam thieu t i e ddng eda BDKH du d cap nio, nginh nao, quy md n i o cung dang l i mdt viec rat khd edn nhieu khd khan, thieh thUe m i Viet Nam ehua giai quyet dupe, dd phii ke den: - Mdt la, thieu dd liiu djnh lugng ve t i e ddng eda BDKH de lam can ed tinh t o i n cic ehi t i i u eac phuong an ndng nghiep; - Hai la, thieu phUOng phap va cdng eu de d i n h g i i , ludng mde dp thieh dng cua eac phuong i n p h i t trien ndng nghiip ed Idng ghep t i e ddng cCia BOKH; - Ba la, thieu dieu kiin va cO hdi tiep can khoa hoc cdng nghe eua the gidi liin quan den nhin dang, xCf ly cac yeu td ky thuat cdng t i e quy hoach p h i t trien Tuy nhiin, nhu cau cua p h i t trien kinh te - xa hdi ndi chung v i cua sin suit ndng nghiip ben vdng ndi rieng, ddi hdi Viet Nam p h i i lap eho trdng b i n g sU no lue cda minh va bang sU trp gidp cua quoc te, nhat la cae nUdc phat trien, cd tiem luc tai chinh, khoa hpc cdng nghe va kinh nghiem cie ITnh vUc n h i n dang, danh g i i tac ddng, xic djnh djnh lugng va xay dung cie g i i i p h i p g i i m thieu, dng phd, thieh dng vdi BDKH./ B ... Nhiimg thach thuTc quy hoach nong nghiep long ghep vdi thich iimg, gISm thieu tac dong cua BOKH Cac ket q u i dat cdng t i c quy hoach ndng nghiep cho den la dang khich l i , quy hoach d i djnh... phd vdi BDKH p h i i dupe Idng ghep vdi cae chien lupc, ke hoach, quy hoach p h i t trien d eac cap, cic nganh, dac b i i t la quy trinh danh g i i mdi trudng chien lUpc, cic van b i n p h i p... Ngay 02/12/2008,Thu tudng Chinh phu da ban hanh quy^ t djnh sd 158/2008/QD-TTg Phi duyet Chuang trinh muc tieu qude gia dng phd vdi bien ddi h i u Quyet djnh n i u rd cie ndi dung: Quan diem, nguyen