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AN TOAN MOI TkijC M JG DAU KHI Bien dpng phat thai COg 6 Viet Nam giai dogn 1986 2008 TS NguyinThjKimAnh Trudng Ddi hqc Kinh ti • Dal hgc Qudc gia Hd N(ii Nhiiu nghiin cUu da chUng minh rdng, CO^ Id m[.]
AN TOAN - MOI TkijC.M-JG DAU KHI Bien dpng phat thai COg Viet Nam giai dogn 1986 2008 TS.NguyinThjKimAnh Trudng Ddi hqc Kinh ti • Dal hgc Qudc gia H Nhiiu nghiin cUu da chUng minh rdng, CO^ Id mdt nhCfng lagl nhd kinh gdy dnh hUdng trin 50% tdIS ndng tin cua quyin Tdng trUdng kinh tidUctc tUp sUc bdi qud trinh cdng nghiip hda dl liin vdi tdng ddn sS, da Idm phdt thdi quyin mdt lUpng CO^ qud Idn vUOt xa khd ndng dHu tUt cda tU nhlin TYieo Bdo eda Triin vong mdi trUdng todn edu ndm 2008 (Global Environment Outlook 2008 - GEO-4) Vl^t Nam si Id nUdc chfu thiit hgl nghiim nhdt biin ddl hdu todn cdu Ndm dvung Odng Nam A - khu vUc c6 tdc dd tdng trU&ng cao trin thigldl, Vlit Nam ehua rdng budc bdicdccam kit gidm phdt thdi nhd kinh (GHGs) theo Nghj djnh thU Kyoto (1997), nhUng dd cd nhCtng bUdc di thi hiin thiin diiva trdch nhiem bdo vi mil trUdng, cu thi Ludt Mdi trudng dd dUcte ban hdnh ndm 1993 vd dUac sUa doi ndm 2006 Trong giai dogn 1986 - 2008, Vlit Nam cd tSc dd tdng trudng khd cao, trung binh 7%/ndm vd dd hgn ehi tde dd tdng dinsi dgt mUc trung binh h64%/ndm, vdy phdt thdi CO^ biin ddng vd ehju dnh hudng bdi nhCtng nhan tdea bdn g qud trinh tdng trudng kinh tigiai dogn ndy? Quan he giCira luong CO^ phat thdi, tang trUdng kinh te, tieu thu nang luong va dan so Thuc t l , phdt trien sdn xult, tang thu nhap ca nhan, tang dan sd s l dan tdi tang tieu thy nang lupng lam t i n g phat t h I i COj,- tang dan sd cdn Idm tang phdng thieh CO^ khdng qua qud trinh hd hip sy dung phuong phdp tiep can theo eo elu ed t h i ly g i l i dupc mdi quan he gida eac y i u td O i n g thdc Kaya 6e c i p tdi hai nhdm yeu t6:a)Nhdm dinh luang gdm: Y/P (hole y/p) vd P (hodc p); b) Nhom dinh tinh gdm: (i) E/Y (hoac e/y) - b i l n ddng eua biln bieu thj hilu suit sCr dyng nang lupng t i l t kilm hoac tien bp ky thult, hodc chuyin djch co c l u nganh kinh tevaCii) C/E (hole c/e) - b i l n dong cua bien t h i hiin chuyen ddi e o c l u nang lupng Phdt t r i i n b i n vyng ddi hdi tri hai b i l n djnh lUOng O i n g thye Kaya Id mdt each tiep cdn theo co cau gidi thich mdi quan he gida lupng CO^ ngudi phdt thdi (y/p vd p) ludn duong {+) ( t i t n h i i n v& tde dp gia tang khlc nhau); hai b i l n djnh tinh (c/e va e/y) can (C) vdi ddn sd {P), mde thu nhap binh qudn dau ngUdi phdi gidm, hay ndi cdch khde c I n t i l t kiem vd tang hieu (Y/P), eudng dd nlng lupng hay n l n g lupng t i l u thy d l qud sit dung ndng lupng, tang sy dung nang lUpng sach, tao mot dPn vj thu nhIp (E/Y), cudng dd COj cya nang gidm t i l u thu n l n g lupng hda thach NhUvly, ty bieu thillc lupng hay lupng CO^ phdt thdi tieu thu mdt don vj {2) ta thiy, de gidm (e) vd ddm b l o phat triin bin viJing, mye g i l m hai y i u td djnh tinh (c/e va e/y) phai bii dSp ndng lUpng {C/E) vd duac b i l u thj bdng cdng thyc sau: dupc mye dd gia tang eOa hai y i u td dinh lupng (y/p vap) C E E X E Y > -xP Phdn tich cac y i u td i n h hUcmg gia tang phat tMi Y lgC = lg(C/E) + lg(E/Y)+lg(Y/P) + |gP CO, d V i l t Nam theotflbngthuTc Kaya (i) Bieu thye (1) eho t h i y mdi quan he giya tdc dp gia tang CO^ vd ede bien ddc lap, ta cd the v i l t elch khlc: c = c/e + e/y + y/p + p 48 Dliu KHf-sd 7/2012 BIng cho t h i y mdc dd bien ddng cua eac y l i ^ I n h hudng tdi tdc dp bien ddng phat thdi CO, ciia vip Nam tyng giai doan ndm va cd thdi ky 1986-20W (2) X l t ddi han (1986 - 2008), y/p (5,27%/nam) vd de PETROVIETNAM Bdng Toe tdng trung binh cda tifngyiu to (Ngudn: lEA, 2010) Ylutd 1986-1990 c -0,0239 L °'^331 0,0911 c/e - 0,0439 0,0794 e/y -0,0304 y/p y e P 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001 - 2005 2006-2008 1986-2008 0,1339 0,0933 0,0619 0,0667 0,0283 0,0356 -0,0349 -0,0340 -0,0127 - 0,0092 -0,0270 0,0284 0,0671 0,0520 0,0620 0,0601 0,0542 0,0529 0,0877 0,0636 0,0766 0,0731 0,0715 0,0209 0,0238 j , 0,0797 0,0498 0,0274 0,0630 0,0632 0,0426 0,0193 0,0110 0,0138 0,0123 0,0164 (3,67%/nam) Id hai y i u td lam e tang manh (8,01%/ndm) CO cau nang lupng v l co cau kinh te nhu the ndo? Xettrong giai doan trung ban (try 1986-1990), hai y i u td Yeu t d ^ n h tinh: Co cau nganh va cOcau nang lUong ndy van la nhin td quylt djnh tang manh CO, Ddng luu y, mye dp gia t i n g cUdng nlng lupng (e/y) ludn (-} c l 3.1 Sa luge biin ddng eda cUdng ndng lUUng vd trung ban va ddi han ed t i n g d i n nhUng cudng dd COJ nam gan dly Tuy tdc dp tang trudng khde nhau, song giai doan 1989 -1992 khd dde b i l t Y/P van tang, C gidm tdi mde t h i p nhat vao nhdng nam 1989 va 1991, thdm chi cdn thap hon cd nam 1986 tdi - d i l m chi cdn 93, 91, 89 vd 97 d i l m ty ndm 1989 - 1992; cUdng dp CO^ (C/E) gidm manh giai doan 1989-1994 xudng dUdi mdc nam 1986cdn 88,84,80, 83, 91 v a t y n a m 1989-1994 {Hinh 1).Hinh cungchothay,Cgidmednlanhde/ygidm lien tuc cd thdi ky, t d 100 diem nam 1986, xudng 90, 88,85 va 82 ndm 1989,1990,1991 va 1992 rdi xudng tdi 73 nam 1996 va 55 vao ndm 2008 TrUdng hop C g i l m t u y l t ddi (-) giai doan 1986-1990 Id hai y i u td dinh tinh giam (C/E = -4,39%; E/Y = -3,04%) dd bu dUpc sy gia tang cua hai yeu td djnh lypng (Y/P = +2,84%; P = +2,38%) Phdi chdng ddy la mpt d l u hilu ddng myng cho tang trUdng vd bao ve mdi trudng d\fiet Nam? Theo Andrei (2/2005), C gidm trudng hpp cdc nude gap cu sdc dau lifa nen da dp dung cdng nghe mdi sCt dung nang lupng t i l t k i l m va hieu qud hOn, chuyin djch CO cau nang lupng, giam phu thudc vdo ndng lupng hda thach; hay nen kinh te phdi duong d l u vdi khyng hoang, suy thoai kinh t l , dan tdi cat g i l m sin xuat, t i l u dijng, gilm tieu thu n l n g lUpng; hole trudng hpp eye doan cd mdt sd nudc (Sudan, Chad, Swaziland, Fiji, French Polynesia, Papua - New Ghinea) tang trudng dUa vao xult khau tai nguyin va han e h l sin xuat nude dupe Andrei gpi la cde nudc theo"xu hUdng xanh" Ba Lan va Hungary da kip thdi ehuyen ddi CO clu kinh te cho thich dng vdi gia nhap khau Ty sau nam 1992, C/E da tdng trd lai vuOt 100 d i l m (1994) vd dd trd thdnh y i u td tac dpng manh thU hai sau Y/P Idm tang manh CO, ty 1998 Tuy E/Y van t i l p tue gidm nhung mye dp gidm da khdng bu dap dupe mUe tang cua Y/R C/E vd P, k i t qud Id C tdng lien tuc tU sau 1992 - 2008 NhUvly, tang trudng kinh t l la nhdn td quan trpng nhat 600 ^ ^ WO nang lUpng hda thach eao Chl mpt sd nudc phat trien (Luxemburg, Dan Mach, Phln Lan, Anh, Ddc, Bahama, Puerto Rico, Malta; van tri dupc tde ddtangtrudng duong (+)trong Clm(-).NhUng Andrei eho rang, ede nudc ndy da phdi ddnh ddi tang trUdng lay elt gidm phat thdi va thyc t l ty le tang trudng kinh te da thap hon mye tang trung 300 1W IK III 11 • i B a i S B - - ^ * * f! ' ' ^ 1—1 ^ ^ • - M • ^ ,# ,# ^ 4» ^ 4^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ f -ã-E -D-eW -O-e/E -ằ*-E/Y - ô - Y / P -*-P binh cya t h i gidi Vdy gidm C d Viet Nam giai doan 1986 -1990 thude loai nao tren day? Trong ddi han (1986 - 2008), Vilt Nam da ed ehuyen dich Hinhl Chi SO C, E C/E, E/Y, Y/P vdP cua Viet Nam, 1986-2008 (chisondm 1986 = 100) (Ngudn: lEA, 2010) AN TOAN - I^Ol TRUONG D A U KHf tiep theo la C/E Idm gia lang nhanh ehdng lUpng CO^ t y hudng m^nh n h l t bdi y i u td djnh tinh {chuyin djch codu sau 2000 mac du da cd sU cdi t h i i n ddng k l cua E/Y ThCf ngdnh kinh t l vd eo c l u lao ddng) nhung khdng cho dlu t u ede y i u td tde ddng tdi C d Vi§t Nam tUPng ty nhU d hi|u tieh eye cua phdt triin b i n vOng Trung Qude LUpng phdt thdi CO, d mijfe dd t h i p giai doan Trudc 1995, eudng dd ndng lypng ciia Vl|t Nam cao 1989 -1992 p h l n nya Id co elu GDP thdi ky ndy ehfl thy sau Trung Qude mdc du ludn gidm ty 333kg OE/1.000 y i u v l n Id ndng nghi|p, cdng nghiip c h l tao va USD GDP nam 1986 xudng 295kg OE/1.000 USD GDP ndm djch vu ehua phdt triin.Tuy n h i i n , lUpng phdt thdi CO, bSt 1990 vd 257kg OE/1.000 USD GDP nam 1995 so vdi 426kg OE/1.000 USDGDR 359kg OE/1.000 USD GDP, ^^°' 251kg OE/1.000 USD GDP vdo nhdng ndm tuong yng dTrung Qudc (Hinh 4) Song Viet Nam dd trd thdnh nudc cd cudng dd ndng lupng cao n h l t sau 400.00 350.00 1995 mac du da gilm xudng cdn 198kg OE/1.000 USD GDP nhung v l n eao hon mye 142kg OE/1.000 USD GDP d Trung Qudc vd 138kg OE/1.000 USD 260.00 200 00 GDP eda Thdi Lan ndm 2005 Da sd cdc ngdnh edng nghiip thude nhdm cd cUdng dd nlng iUpng eao nhu: xi mdng, sit thip, mdy mdc Tuong ty trUdng hpp eua Trung Qudc nude ndy trd thdnh dja ehi -0—HflnOuAe ^•—Malaysia cung d p xi mdng Idn nhlt t h i gidi, da ddng thdi cung la nUde phdt thdi CO, nhieu n h l t t h i gidi tii -"-TnjngQudc - ^ - A n M -ãPhllipiMnes iThai Lan -"-Indonesia -ôV*INam Hinh Cudng dd ndng luang cda mdt sd nudc chdu A 1986- 2005 2006 3.2 Chuyen dich caedu kinh ti Hinh the hien ddng thai t i l n triin eda co cau nganh kinh t l theo tdc dp tang trudng tri gid gia 40 30 tang eua tdng nganh va tdc dp b i l n ddng CO^ phat thai hang ndm Ndm 1989 la thdi diem ddng ehu y K nhat v l su blln ddng eo cau nganh vd eung la thdi diem chdng kiln sU gidm manh lUOng CO, nhu da y^jjt^^^ys-^ ° c~g^^^^^^HiT?vl de cap d tren (gidm diem so vdi mUe 1986) Lupng * " A ^ / " ' ? 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