ninn re a unmn satin iTNG DVNG HAM COBB DOUGLASS TRONG PHAN TICH CAC YEU TO ANH HirdNG DEN SAN LITONG KHAI THAC THAN 6 vifT NAM Chu Thi 1''''t>u* Hoang Thj Dung ThS Tru&ng Dgi hoc Ldm nghiep T6M TAT Than[.]
ninn re a unmn satin iTNG DVNG HAM COBB-DOUGLASS TRONG PHAN TICH CAC YEU TO ANH HirdNG DEN SAN LITONG KHAI THAC THAN vifT NAM Chu Thi 1't>u* Hoang Thj Dung ThS Tru&ng Dgi hoc Ldm nghiep T6M TAT Than di li loai tii nguyen thien nhiSn khdng tii t^o ciia qu6c gia, gia m$t vaifrdquan trpng ddi vdi nin kinh \k qu6c din, d$c bift Ii an ninh ning lupng qudc gia Theo kit qui dilu tra hien t6c dO khai tiiic than Vift nam m§i nim khoang trSn 40 tri^u tin than nguySn khai ThantiSuthy chu ylu xuit kh^u thd chilm khoing tr€n 50% Phan cdn lai tieu thy nude chu ylu cung d p cho cic oginh trpng dilm cua qu6c gia nhu cic nginh di|n Ivrc, phin bdn, giiy, xi ming Bii vilt niy phin tich djnh tinh vi dinh lupng cic ylu t6 inh hudng din quylt dirih sin lupng khai thic than d Viet Nam - d|c thii m$t nginh cdng nghi^ d^c quyln Cin cd co sd kinh tl hpc, dng dvmg him Cobb-Doi^ass tic gii xiy dung md hinh kinh tl lupng vl cic ylu t6 inh hudng den sin lupng khai thic tharL Cic ylu td inh hudng din sin lupng khai thic than d Vi§t Nam bao gom nhdm cic ylu td chd quan vi nhdm cic ylu t6 khich quan vi nb(hig can thi^p cfta Chhih pht^ Theo tic gii, kit qud phan tich tic d^ng cua cic ylu t6 din san lupng khai thic than s€ cd ^ nghia quan trpng d6i vdi vl€c sd dyng ngudn tii n^^ln than di hl$u qui - bin vung rd- kitda: Him Cobb-Douglass, than dd, sdn lufrng khai thdC, yiu ti dnh hudng LDATVANDf: Ngdnh Cdng nghifp than Id mdt ngdnh cdng nghidp khai thdc tdi nguyen tiiien nhidn khdng tdi tao cua qudc gia, ddng vai trd quan trgng sir nghifp phdt triln kinh td ddt nude ddc biet Id ddm bdo an ninh ndng lugng qu6c gia Theo EIA sdn Iugng than Vidt Nam nam 2007 Id 49,14 tri?u t V vdi sdn Iugng Viet Nam diing thu cde nude Chau A, thii 17 trdn thd gjdi chidm khodng 0,69% san lugng than tren thd gidi M§t khde than cdn Id ddu vdo eho rdt nhieu cdc ngdnh sdn xuat cdng nghifp trgng ydu cua ddt nuoc nhu: ngdnh dien lue, ngdnh phan bdn, ngdnh cdng nghiep xi mang vd edng nghifp Gidy Trong dd, than chidm tdi 6% ehi phi gid tiidnh cua xi mdng Id quay, 12% cua xi mang 16 diing, 44% dam ure eua Nhd mdy dam Ha Bdc Vdi nganh dien, tieu chudn dp dung cho nhift difn Id 390g cho kWh dien (theo Bg Tdi chinh, ndm 2007) Tuy nhien, cdng nghifp khai thdc than gay tde dgng bat lgi ldn ddn vdn dd bao ve mdi trudng thien nhidn eiing nhu mdi trudng sdng ciia ngudi Chang han khai thdc than se gdy vdn dd bui md, nude thdi md, bui md qua trinh vdn chuydn, vdn dd ddt da thdi Than cdn la ngu^n ndng lugng gay nhidu tdc hai eho mdi trudng, la thii pham chinh tao hieu iing nhd kinh (than thdi lugng CO2, cao gip hai ldn so vdi gas) Ngdnh than Vift Nam la mdt ngdnh cdng nghifp ddc quydn, cdc quydt dinh khai thdc vd sdn xuat than cung chiu dnh hudng bdi eac ydu td chii quan vd khdch quan Siing trdn gdc dd kinh te hge nd ciang chiu dnh hudng ly thuylt hdnh vi ngudi sdn xuat Bdi bdo da di sau nghien euu hdm Cobb-Douglass va im% dyng md hinh hdm ndy de xdy dung md binh hoi quy phdn tich cdc y l u td dnh hudng din sdn lugng khai thdc than is Vift Nam Trdn co sd bdi bdo ddnh gid ndng ^ ngdnh cdng nghifp than ciing nhu can thifp cua Chinh phii hien doi voi nganh cdng nghidp than vifc khai thdc va sdn xudt Aan tlidnh phdm Xudt phdt tii nhiing thyc trang nghidn ciiu bai bao dua mdt sd gidi phdp c\i thd nhim qudn ly vd su dung ngudn tdi nguydn than hifu qud, tiet kif m, ben viing ILPHirONG PHAP NGHIEN CCltJ 2.1 Phinmg phdp thu th^p thdng tin, s6 lieu T ^ CHI K H O A HQC VA CONG NGHJ^ L A M N G H I | ; P S - 2013 119 ninn te & unmn sach - Thu th|q) so lifu thii cdp: sd lieu thur cdp dugc thu thdp t^i t^ip dodn than Vift nam thdng qua cac bdo cdo tdi chinh, cae sd sdch chiing tii ^ chdp khdc t^i tdp dodn; thu thap sd lifu thu cap qua sach, bdo, tap chi, cdc bdo cao tdng k i t khdc cd lien quan din vdn d l nghien ctiru (da dugc cdng bo) - Thu t h ^ sd lifu so c ^ : S6 lifu so cdp Id so lidu dugc thu th|q) true tiip qua phdng vdn, trao doi vdi cdc ddi tugng cd lidn quan t ^ cdc don vi thugc pham vi nghidn cum 2J1 P h m m g phdp xu \yy phdn ticb thdng tin, so lifu Phuomg ph^ xir l^ so li^u Sd lifu va cde thdng tin dugc xii ly tren phdn m i m Excel bang bilu dd, dd thi, bang bilu, su dung phin m i m StataS Phutmg phdp phdn tich Phutmg pftdp thdng ke mo td: Phuong phdp dugc su dung de md td tinh hinh qudn ly, khai thdc vd su dung tdi nguyen than dd d Vift Nam Cdc ehi tieu dugc su d y i ^ bao gdm: sd binh qudn, sd tuong ddi, sd tuyft ddi, co cdu, ty trgng, toe dd phdt trien binh qudn Phuang piidp so sdnh: Phuong phap dugc sur dung de phdn tich vd ddi chilu tde ddng cua ehinh sach thul tdi nguyen din ehi phi, gid thanh, sdn Iugng khai thac than dd Phucmgph^phmt tich hoi qt^ - Phuong phap ndy dugc su dung dk phdn tich dnh hudng ciia co che thue tdi nguyen vd cdc nhan t6 khdc ddn sdn lugng khai thdc than - Sii dvmg md binh kinh te Iugng hdi quy bang phuong p h ^ binh phuong nhd nhdt (OLS) Sau Idii th\rc hifn hhi quy tii bd sd lidu theo hai d^ng: d a i ^ ham tuyen tinh va dang hdm Cobb-Douglass K i t qud cho thdy md binb hdi quy dang Cobb - Douglass cd k i t qua ddng tin cdy hon ve m|it th6ng ke Ham Cobb-Douglass cd dang.Yi AXi'"X2'^ Xk'*e'^ 120 Troi^^: Yi la bien phu thugc Xj ( i = 1,2, k) la bien dgc lap tti ( i = 1,2, k) la edc hf s6 hdi quy A Id hdng sd; Ui la sai sd; e la co sd todn hgc (e = 2,71828) Ung dimg hdm Cobb-Douglass dugc s u dyng kinh t l hgc Vi du: Ham sdn xudt Cobb-Douglass: Q = AK^'r^ Trong dd: Q: sdn lugng sdn phdm sdn xudt K: dau vdo la vdn L: ddu vdo la lao ddng A: hdngsd a: Hf sd eo gian cua sdn lugng theo v6n p: He sd CO gidn ciia sdn Iugng theo lao dgng Tdng hf sd CO gidn a vd p cd y nghia kinh te quan trgng - Neu tdng he sd co gjdn (a + P) = 1, thi hdm sdn xudt cho biet tinh trang doanh Igi khdng thay ddi theo qui md, ed nghia la % tang cdc yeu td d i u vdo bang % tang sdn lugng ddu - Neu tdr^ hd sd co gian (a + P) > 1, thi hdm sdn xudt cho bidt tinh trang doanh lgi tdi^ ddn Ibeo qui md, cd nghia Id % tdng cac ydu td ^ u vdo nhd hon % tang san lugng ddu - Neu tdng hf sd co gidn (a + P) < 1, tin hdm sdn xudt cho biet tinh trang doanh lgi gidm dan theo qui md, cd nghia Id % tang cdc ydu td ddu vao ldn hon % tang sdn lugng ddu Ham Cobb - Douglass dugc gidi bing phuong phdp logarit hoa hai ve Ung dung hdm CobbDouglass bai bao xdy dung md hinh h6i quy phan tich cac yeu td anh hudng den sdn lugng khai thac Than d Viet Nam nhu sau: Dang hdm: LnQ =pQ+ piLnXl + ^2 LnXi + ^5X3 + p4 X4+^jX5+^tfX6 + Ui Trong dd cac bien dvtqc the hifn bang : T ^ C H I KHOA H Q C VA C N G N G H E L A M N G H I E P SO - 2013 ninn iff a Ufmiff aaMi Bang 01 Giai thich j nghia cic biin sHr ttfing md hinh Ten bien 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Bi6n phy thu$c San lugng than nguydn khai Bien gidi thich Giabdntiian Thue tai nguySn ndp Chi phi mdi trudng va phi bdo vf mdi trudng Bern v| tinh Giai thich cdch tinh va y nghia cac bien hieu San lugng than dugc khai thdc hdng q ^ ciia ngaoh chua qua sang tuyln vd chi biln tan dong/tan trifu dSng P „ trifu d6ng „ ^ T i l f tiian xuat khdu tren tong sd He s6 dao 16 m/lOOO chung tan Hf so boc dat da mVtdn Ti If than bdn cho Dien trSn tdng so % ' X3 X4 gia bdn than binh qudn So tiln ngdnh phai n$p hdng qu^ theo chinh sdch thue tai nguySn dp dyng tai thdi dilm dd Bao gom todn bd s6 tiln lidn quan din chi phi mdi trucmg md ngflnh chi tieu dl khdc phyc cdc hau qud M I md nganh gay ra, va phi mdi trudng ngp ngdn sdch, chi p!u' khoan tham dd hdng qu^ Day Id bien the hifn df md ciia ngdnh than Phan trim than xuit khdu so vdi tong sdn lugng than tidu thy ciia ngdnh So m6t Id dao de lay dugc 1000 tan than nguy&i khai him 16 Xs Xfi Phin tram than ti§u thy cho ngdnh difn so vdi tong so than tieu thy cua nganh S6 liifu svr dung md hkih Do ddc thii c6a ngdnh cdng nghiep than dugc triln khai th\rc hifn theo kilu Tdp dodn cac don vi thuc hifn S6 lifu sir d y i ^ md hinh: thu th|lp theo quy tir nam 2004 din quy ddu nam 2011 (cd 30 quan sdt cho cdc biln) HI K E T QUA NGHIEN CUtJ 3.1 Khai quat nganh Cong nghiep than or Vift Nam Nganh cdng nghiep than da ddi vd trdi qtia qud trinh phdt triln hon 160 nam Tdng cgng da khai thdc dugc 278 trifu t ^ than sach Trong thdi Phdp thudc, tii nam 1883 din thdng 3/1955 da khai thdc ti-en 50 trifu tdn than sgch, ddo hdng trdm km dudng Id, bdc va dd thdi hdng true trifu m^ dat dd Tix ndm 1995 din ndm 2001 da khai tiidc gdn 228 trifu tdn than sach, ddo 1041 km dudng Id, bdc vd dd thdi 795 trifu m^ ddt da tren difn tich bai thdi hdng tram ha, sir dung hdng trifu m^ gS chdng Id, hang tram ngdn tdn thu6c no vd hdng trifu tan nhidn Hfu cac loai do: rieng tir ndm 1995 den 2001 (khi t6ng Cdng ty than Vift Nam chua dugc thdnh lap) da khai thac 73,4 trifu tdn than s^ch (bdng 26,4% tdng sdn lugng todn ngdnh khai thdc tii trudc den nay), dao 504,5 km dudng Id, bdc vd TAP CHf KHOA HQC dd thdi 237,2 tiifu m^ dit da (dat 48,5% tdng sd dudmg Id vd 29,8% tdng khoi lugng ddt dd ciia todn ngdnh tii nam 1995 - 2001) Hien ngdnh than khai thdc mdi ndm tren 13 - 14 trifu tdn than sach, ddo binh quan tren 100km dudng Id, bdc vd dd thdi tren 50 trifu m"' ddt da, sii d\u^ trdn 160 ngdn m^ gS, khodng 150 ngdn tdn thu6c nd va hang chue ngdn tdn nhien lifu cdc lo^i 3.2 Tinh hinh khai thac than vd san xu^t tiian Than Viet nam dugc khai thdc chii yeu theo hai quy trinh cdng nghf khai thdc dd Id: khai thdc ham Id va khai thac Id thien Trong sudt thoi gian qua than dugc khai tilde vd sdn xu4t diu cd xu hudng tang vdi miic tang binh quan Id 6,89%, cd nghia la mdi ndm lugng than nguyen khai tdng ldn 6,89% Trong do, than dugc khai thdc tii h i m Id cd xu hudng tdng miic tang tuong ling la 10,46% so vdi than khai thdc Id thidn chi cd 5,63% Dilu ndy chiing td mudn khai thdc dugc than thi chiing ta ngdy cdng phai khai thdc sdu hon ldng ddt Do nhu cdu than da trdn thi trudng nude vd xudt khdu ngdy cdng manh, ndn than ngdy edng dugc khai thdc nhieu hon Trii lugng than d edc via 10 thien hifn da gidm di ddng k l Mat khdc, lugng dat dd bi bdc di ciing tang VA C N G N G H £ L A M N G H I | : P S - 2013 121 ninn re a untnn sacn len voi miic tang binh quan 14 6,82%, va s6 met 16 duoc dao ciing tSng voi mijrc tang la 9,63% Dieu c4ng chiing to than dugc khai thdc phuc vu cho nhu cau cang kho khan hon va t6n kem nhieu hon, cong voi trii lugng cang giam di Bang 02 Tinh hinh khai thic, chi biin than Viet Nam 2005-2010 Nam 2005 > a b c phim Than nguyen khai LO thien Him Id Thue than B6cditda Nim 2006 N5m 2007 Nam 2008 Nam 2009 Nam 2010 TDPTB 107,10 tr.tin 30,411151 36,956 40,008 38,612 43,025 42,852 Ir.tin 33,539000 40,757 43,375 43,267 44,361 46,788 tr.tin tr.tin tr.tin 1000 m' m 20,142162 12,121340 1,275497 165.027 226.643 24,477 14,730 1,550 192.991 263.872 26,797 16,313 0,265 210.588 289.741 106,89 25,333 25,760 26,490 105,63 17,553 18,170 19,935 110,46 0,381 0,431 0,363 77,78 216.381 208.725 229.471 106,82 280.503 318.921 358.870 109,63 Ngudn: Ban Ke hogch — Vinacomin 1000000 900O0O - 7O00OO - 597.080,39 ^ ^T 60000O 50DOOO - —•-Nam _ ^ ^ ^ i j j p i — • • 482.188,96 dooooo 30OO0O —•-ZdVsx(d/tSn) 408.792,45 200000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Bieu 01 Tinh hinh tang gid thdnh sdn xuit cda ngdnh Than giai do^n 2005 - 2010 Theo kdt qud bao cao ciia T|ip dodn vd bao cdo CO sd tdng gid ban than ndm 2011 len Bg Tdi chinh trinh Chinh phu phe duyet cho thiy gid thdnh thao nam 2005 so vdi nam 2009 tang khodng 62,5% tuong iing vdi miie tang la 257.318 ddng/tdn Trong dd, nguydn nhdn chii y^u Id do: tdn; cung dd vdn chuyln than tang 900 ddng/tan; ti trgng than hdm Id tang vd cac yeu t6 khdc lam tang 5.000 dong/ tdn - Gid ed ddu vao va chinh sdch thul tang: Gia v§t lifu nd tdng ldm tang chi phi la 4.789 dong/ tdn; gia go Id ldm tdng 2.134 ddng/ tdn; gia sdt thep ch6ng Id, phy tiing ldm tang 10.289 ddng/ tdn; gid ddu Diezel lam tang - Didu kifn khai thac ngdy cdng xudng sdu 77.947 ddng/tdn; gid sdm l6p d td lam tang vd xa hon, ti t r g i ^ than hdm Id edng tdng, hf s6 bdc dat dd, hf sd ddo Id, cung van 8.280 ddng/ tan; tien luong binh qudn Idm tang chuyen ddt, than, ti If ddt dd phdi nd min, 45.529 ddng/ tdn; cde khodn tinh theo luong xu6ng sdu dp l\rc ldn, nuoc nhidu ldm chi phi tdng tdi thieu 5.114 ddng/ tan; thud tai nguyen tdng tii 2.500 d d n g / ^ ldn 27.000 ddng/ tin; thdng gid, bom nude, chi phi khoan thdm dd, chi phi mdi tnidng, phi mdi trudng nop ngdn chi phi mdi trudng ngdy cdng tang sdch, chi phi tham dd tang tii 7.209 ddng/ tin Dilu kifn khai thdc ldm tdng chi phi Id len 23.731 ddng/ tdn; tiiu^ VAT khdng dugc 42.400 d6ng/ tan Trong dd: hf sd bdc ddt tang chi phi la: 12.300 ddng/ tdn; cung dd van khdu tiTj (dp dung tii ndm 2009) tang 20.410 chuydn ddt da Id thien ldm tang 24.200 ddng/ 122 TAP CHI KHOA HQC v A C N G N G H E L A M NGHIEP S - 2013 quSn 14 107,27% Trong d6 than tiSu thu nude tang 9,34%, than xuit khiu tSng ch&n hon voi mile tang la 4,92% 3.3 Tmh hinh tiSu thy than Tinh tieu thv nhimg nam gSn day dSu CO xu hu6ng tang ISn kl ci than ban nuoc v^ xu^t khiu dgt toe d5 ph^t trien binh Bang 03 Sdn lic0tg than tieu thii tit nam 2005 - 2010 DVT 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TDPTB Q(%) tr.tk 30,188 37,669 41,652 35,437 44,489 42,881 107,27 tr.tdn tr.tdn 15,447 4,412956 16,058 4,545344 17,494 5,045332 18,173 5,398505 20,186 6,548387 24,139 8,932 109,34 115,14 PhSnbdn tr.tin 0,444788 0,453684 0,462758 0,467385 0,492157 0,5020000 102,45 Giiy tr.tdn 0,138368 0,141827 0,146082 0,149003 0,153176 0,1230000 97,67 Xi m ^ g tr.tdn 3,455596 3,576541 3,773251 3,999646 4,603593 5,7660000 110,78 e kMc tr.tin 6,995293 7,340818 8,063888 8,160655 8,389153 8,8170000 104,74 Xudt khdu tr.tdn 14,741 21,611 24,158 17,264 24,303 18,742 104,92 Tl le xk/tso % 48,83 57,37 58,00 48,72 54,63 43,71 97,81 rr Chiti6u , ^ a Thantigu thu Trong nude Dien b c d Nguon: Ban KS hogch — Vinacomin * Nhan xet tinh hinh khai thdc vd tieu thu than a Viet nan 45 40 —y% 30 • ^ ^ - ^ •y-:pr='~ • k « = * = * ^ ^ •Z —.— Than th6nh phdm 25 • Than nguydn khai tr.tin —*—3T1iai) IJfiuUig U.l^ii 20 15 • 10 - Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam 2005 2006 2007 200S 2009 2010 Bieu 02 Arii quan h$ khai thdc, sdn xuat va lieu thu than giai Hoan 2005-2010 Qua bieu ih 02 cho ta thiy moi quan he tang truong nhip nhang giila khai thac, "sin xuat wk tiSu thu than thoi gian qua tuong d6i dn dinh San luong than thSnh phim va than nguySn khai giai doan 2005-2010 tSng kha d6u dan va dong d^u Chiing t6 kS hoach s ^ xuit cua nganh than duoc triln khai dung tiln va diing ke hoach hop v6i nang luc \k kha nang khai th^c - sdn xuat ciia nganh hi^n Tuy nhien, san luong than tiSu thu giai dojn co su bien dong nho Nam 2008 san luong than tiSu thy giam din din lu(?ng than nguySn khai va than phim giam Nguygn nhSn chil ylu la nSm 2008 cuoc khung hoang kinh te to4n cau da anh hucmg dang ke den dit nude va nganh than, n6n lugng than tiSu thu giam d§c bi^t 14 lugng than xuit khiu Mac dii, dilu se 4nh hudng den hoat dong kinh doanh ciia Tap doan, song vdi xa h^i thi giam xuit khiu se 14 co h$i cua viec sil dung tai nguyen khdng t4i t ^ nude 3.4 PhSn tich cdc ylu t l anh hirdng den san lirgng khai th^c than d Vi^t nam 3.4.1 Phin tick bang 16m tit cdc cMsS IhSng ki cua cdc biin co md hinh Kit qui cac chi s6 thing kS ciia cdc biln su dung md hinh dugc the hien chi tilt tren bilu sau: T ^ CHi KHOA HQC VA C N G NGHf L A M NGHIEP S6 - 2013 123 nmn te & uninh sach Bang 04 Bdng tdm tdt cdc chi si thing ke cua cdc biin BiSn Quan sat S6 binh quan Dd l§ch chuan Q p X, X; 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 10.100.000 709.222 112.730,7 126.750,2 49,71497 17,67702 8,239239 31,18729 1.730.506 263.321,4 132.632,1 97.401,73 6,741026 1,548056 0,7992475 3,992485 XJ X, Xi X 4.4.2 Phan tich kit qua hdi quy Ket qua udc luong mo hinh b l i ^ phuong phap binh phucmg nho nhdt (OLS) cho kk qua nhu sau: LnQ = 8,769014 - 0,48369LnXi + 0,912701LnX2 + 0,010163 X3 - 0.01924 X4 + 40,08743 Xs + 0,01646 X^+0,05273LIIP(P.V*.H,377) K6t qua hoi quy kinh t l luong cho thiy bien gia ban binh quan k h o i ^ co ^ aghia th6ng ke vh mat ly thuyet kinh tk, yku td anh huong Ion va r5 den cung khai thac than chlnh ban than gia b a a Tuy nhiSn gia ban than o Viet Nam Gia tri nho nhat 6.701.536 412097,1 10.677,87 30.790,71 37,3125 12,4 6,466729 22,78148 Gid tr) ldn nhat 12.400.000 1.299.182 323.185,7 284.056,3 60,34776 21,11656 10,18437 37,00236 ch;u su dieu tiet cua Chinh phu a€n mo hinh h6i quy gia bdn binh quan thuc t^ khong c6 y Dghia th6ng ke nen loai bd b i ^ gid bdn bhih quan mo hhih K-h qua uac lu9ng mo hinh kinh te lu^ng lan nhu sau: H$ s6 xac dinh b0i R^ = 0,9439 He s6 xac djnh di^u chmh R^ = 0,9293 Kiem djnh -y nghia thdi^ kS cdc biln giai thich sir dung mo hinh voi muc y nghia a = 5%, tin c$y 95% Kdt qua u6c luyng cac bien g^di Mch su dung mo hinh nhu sau: Bang 05 Kit qud u&c Itrong hii qity cdc bi&n gidi thich Biln H$ so udc luong Sai tieu chuan T-test[P-vaIue] LnX, LnXz -0,49187 0,94001 0,00987 -0,02334 0,09802 0,01616 9,26015 0,08682 0,15629 0,00317 0,00657 0,02288 0,00477 0,66237 -5,66[0,000] 6,01[0,000] 3,11 [0,005] -3,55[0,002] 4,28[0,000] 3,38[0,003] 13,98[0,000] Xj X4 X, X6 Hang so L n Q = 9,26015 - 0,49187LnXi + 0,94001 LnX2 + 0,00987 X3 - 0,02334 X4 + + 0,09802X5 + 0,01616X6 - ThuS tai nguyen: day la s6 t i ^ thue tai nguyen thuc th phai n6p cua nganh doi voi hoat d o i ^ khai thdc than dd H€ sd uoc lugr^ la (-0,49187) c6 y nghia th6ng kd a mfic y nghia a =0,05 Voi dieu kien cdc y6u to khdc khong dh\ thue tai nguyen nganh phai ndp tang len 1% thi san lugng than nguydn khai se giam di 0,49187% Ddu am cua h$ s6 the hien m6i quan he ti le nghich giua s6 t i ^ thu6 tai nguyen ngdnh phai ndp va sdn lugng than nguySn khai Dieu cd nghia chinh sach thud tai nguydn cua Nha nuoc ddi vdi mot 124 nganh cdng n ^ e p khai thdc tai nguydn thidn nhidn n h ^ han che viec khai thac than o hien tai ma de lai cho tuong lai - Chi phi mdi tnicmg va phi bao v? moi truong nop ngan sach cua ngdnh la bien dnh hudng ddn sdn lugng than khai thac vdi h? sd udc lugng la 0,94001 cd ^ nghia th6ng kd miic ^ nghia a =0,05 Vdi dieu kien cdc yeu td khdc khdng ddi thi chi phi mdi truong va phi bao v | mdi trucmg tang len 1% tlu sdn lugng than khai thdc tang len 0,94001% Ddu duong cua he sd the hidn moi quan he ti Id thuan giua san iugng than nguyen khai voi chi phi mdi trudng va phi bdo v | mdi trudng Nganh cdng nghidp khai thdc tdi nguydn T ^ CHi KHOA HQC VA CONG NGHE LAM N G H l £ P SO - 2013 niiiii lu » \ thidn nhien khdng tai tao nhu than da c6 anh hudng rat ldn ddn mdi trucmg thidn nhidn vd mdi tnicmg sdng cua ii^di Dd khdc ph\ic nhidm cua ngdnh gdy thi ngdnh phdi ton nhi^u chi phi nhdm Ididc phyc hdu qud mdi tmdng Do dd, sdn lugng than khai thdc tang thi cdn phai cd nhieu nguon qu5^ mdi trudng de gidi quydt hau qud d nhiem mdi trudng hien md ngdnh t ^ - D$ md cua ngdnh tiian: ti 1$ sdn lugng than xudt khiu so vdi t6ng san lugng than tidu th\i la bien cilng dnh hudng din sdn lugng than nguydn khai vdi h$ sd udc lugng Id 0,00987 cd y nghia thdng kd vdi muc y nghia a =0,05 Vdi dilu ki^n cdc ylu tl khdc khdng ddi ti Id than xuat khdu tdng ldn 1% thi san lugng khai thdc than tang len 0,00987% Ddu duong thi hi$n mdi quan he ti 1$ thu$n giii'a sdn lugng than nguydn khai vd ti 1§ than xudt khdu so vdi tdng s6 than tieu thu Trudc nhiing ndm 2005, Nha nude chua cd chinh sdch kilm sodt hoat ddng xuat khdu than, ndn vi$c Than dugc xudt khdu nude ngoai ngdy cdng nhidu Nhung hifn nay, Chinh phii da cd nhirng chinh sdch nhdm h ^ chi xudt khdu than, chdng hgn sit dung thud quan Bdng muc thue sudt thue xuat khdu cao cung phdn ndo hgn chi dugc ti 1^ than xudt khdu M|it khdc, Chinh phu ciing da cd nhiing chi dao cy thi ddi vdi ngdnh than hidn han chi ti If xuat khdu bang cac chi tidu (han nggch xudt khdu) ydu cau ngdnh phdi gidm ti Id xuat khdu thau thdi gian tdi.Tuy nhidn, dl khdc phuc tinh trgng than chdy ngodi, Nha nude can phM cd chinh sach cu thi dii vdi ngdnh d ^ biet la vdn de xudt khdu - Hf s6 ddo Id chung/1000 tdn nguyen khai ham 16 so vdi tdng sd (so met dao dl khai thdc 1000 tdn than nguyen khai hdm Id) Id biln ciing dnh hudng kha Idn din sdn Iugng than nguydn khai vdi hf sl udc lugng (-0,02334) cd f nghia thing kd vdi miic ^ nghia a =0,05 Vdi dilu kifn khac khdng dii hf sl ddo Id tang ldn (m/1000 tdn than nguydn khai hdm 16) thi san lugng than khai thdc gidm di 0,02334% Ddu dm ciia hf s6 udc lugng thi hifn mii quan hd ti If nghjch giiia cdng nghe khai thdc ham Id so vdi sdn lugng than nguydn khai Tren thuc te, tru lugng than Vidt nam trdn be mgt cdn lai rdt it, than hien ndm sdu 16ng dat D I khai thdc dugc than thi nganh dang dan chuydn khai thdc than Id thien sang hdm 16 Ndn hf sl ddo 16 cdng tang cd nghia Id cdng khai thdc than xuIng sau va tim kiem md mdi thi sdn lugng than cang giam Day Id ddu hidu bdo dOng ve an ninh than d Viet Nam Chiing ta cdn phdi cd chinh sdch can thifp hgp I^ de sii dung nguon tdi nguydn than hidu qud, tilt kif m, bin viing - Hf sd bdc ddt da (m^ ddt dd phdi bdc dl dugc tdn than than nguydn khai 1$ thidn) la biln dnh hudng din sdn lugng than khai thdc vdi hf sl udc Iugng Id 0,09802 cd y nghia thing kd vdi miic y nghia a =0,05 Vdi dilu kifn cac yeu to khac khdng ddi hf sd bdc ddt dd tang Ida I (m^/tdn) thi sdn lugng than khai thdc tang len 0,09802% Ddu duong ciia hd so udc lugng thi hifn mil quan hf tl If thu$n giiia sdn Iugng than nguydn khai va so m^ ddt da dugc bdc tut than If thidn Dieu ndy chiing td dieu kifn khu vyc khai diac cang khd khdn, than lgi hidn nam d nhiing viing xa, sau lan nhieu dat da - San Iugng than tidu thy cho sdn xudt difn so vdi tdng sd than tidu thy Id biln dnh hudng den san Iugng than nguydn khai vdi hf s6 udc lugng 0,0999337 Tuy nhidn biln ndy khdng cd y nghia thing kd vi cd gid tri P>|r[>0,05 Tren thuc tl thi biln dien Id mgt khdch hdng khd mat thilt vdi ngdnh than Cd hai ciing cd vai trd trgng yeu ddi vdi nen kinh tl ddt nude Ngdnh than ngodi ban than theo nhu cdu thi tnrdng cdn cd m^t vai trd quan Id ddm bdo tinh In dinh cua nganh didn ndng qudc gia Ndn ti Id than ban cho ^ f n cd f n ^ a quylt djnh den san lugng khai thdc ciia ngdnh Vdi dieu kifn cdc ylu td khdc khong ddi ti Id than bdn cho difn so vdi ting than tieu thu tdng len 1% Ihl than nguydn khai tdng Idn 0,0999337 tieu tan = 99933,7 tdn 3.5 Mdt s6 f kiln dl xudt 3.5,1 Tiip tffc tdng cttarng can thiip ciia Chinh phd doi vM ngdnh cdng nghiip than Nhdm giai phdp cac cdng cvi kinh tl T ^ CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE L A M N G H I E P SO - 2013 ninn w St uninn sacn Tiep tyc ddy mgnh vifc dp dung thud tdi nguydn dii vdi vifc khai thdc than Trdn thuc td, thul tdi nguydn dang dgt dugc muc tieu cua Chinh phii nhdm hgn che san lugng khai thdc tdi nguyen Phai xdc dinh ro gia thi tnidng tinh thul tdi nguydn cho tidu thy than d ddu vdi gid ndo Trdn thuc tl, gia than dugc hinh tii hai giai doan Giai dogn 1, gid ciia cdc nhd thdu khai thdc bdn cho Bdn giao thdu theo thda thuan Giai doan 2, gia than tieu thy tren thi trudng Trdn thyc tl, tiln thul tdi nguydn nfp dugc triln khai tai cdc don vi khai thdc than (Bdn nhdn thau) nen miic dnh hudng ciia thue din gid thdnh sdn xudt than khdng dit mgnh dl kilm soat ngudn tai nguydn thidn nhidn va it cd tdc d$ng den gid bdn than tren thi trudng Nen ap dyng cdch thu phi mdi trudng doi vdi hoat dgng khai thdc than theo miic df khai thdc; cd nghia la m ^ phi thu ndn thay ddi mice thu binh quan sang miic thu luy tidn Tdc gid dl xudt: miic sdn Iugng khai thdc than tdng 1% ky thi ndn cd miic phi mdi trudng ndn tang Idn 0,94% Doi vdi chinh sdch ban che xuat khau than Hifn tgi, chinh sdch thue xuat khau than Vift Nam vdi mdc thul sudt cao cung da cd tdc df ng manh den gia xuat khau than cua nganh Ldm tang chi phi cua ngdnh ndn da phdn ndo hgn chd dugc ti Id than xudt khau Nhu vay, tiip tuc hodn thidn miic thul sudt thud xuat khau than giai dogn tiep theo vdi de xudt tiip tuc ndng miic thul sudt thul xudt khdu than Idn hon 15% Ap dung hgn nggch xudt khau than nghidm i^^t ciing nhu kilm tra gidm sdt vide thuc hifn chinh sach cua Chinh phii M|t khdc, quy dinh rd hgng myc hay chiing logi than dugc phep xudt khdu trdnh lang phi nguIn tdi nguydn 3.5.2 Biy mgnh nhom gidi phdp nang cao nang l^c khai thdc vd p thuc trach nhi$m cua ngdnh d6i vdi nguon tdi nguyen khdng tdi tgo - Than dd - Khuyin khich ddu tu vd hgp tac quIc tl linh vuc nghidn ciiu, iing dung cdng nghe tien tiln che bien vd sii dung than nhdm ndng cao gia tri sii dyng than, tilt kidm tdi nguydn vd bao ve mdi trudng, nhu: cdng nghe 126 su dyng than sgch, huyen phu than nude, chd biln than dimg eho luyf n kim, cong nghe hda than, than hda dau v.v ; - Ddy nhanh tiln dg ddu tu cdc cdng trinh md than thdng qua vide da dgng hod eac hinh thiic ddu tu dl phdt huy tdi da mpi ngudn lye, nang cao hifu qud ddu tu Tiip tyc hodn thidn chinh sach thu hiit dau tu nude ngodi vdo tiiam dd, khai thdc ddi vdi be than dong bang sdng Hong va khu vye dudi -300 m bl than Qudng Ninh; - Khuyen khich md rfng ddu tu phdt tridn cdc dy dn tham dd, khai thdc than d nude ngodi - Tdng cudng cdng tdc tuydn truyin, gido dye phd bien kien thiic ve an todn lao dfng va bao vf mdi trudng ddn mpi cdn bf, cdng nhdn vidn; - Tranh thu cac nguon vdn trong, ngoai nude, cdc td chiic qudc tl, cdc nguIn vdn tdi trg khdc ddnh cho mdi trudng; kit hgp vdi ehinh quyen dia phuong nhanh chdng khdc phyc nhOng ton tgi d nhiem mdi trudng khai thac than nhieu nam de lai, ddc bidt Id mdi trudng, cdnh quan vjnh Hg Long; - Xay dung kd hoach vd 1$ trinh ddi han vdi cde ^di phdp ddng bg nhdm khdc phuc va tiii^ budc giai quylt tdt cac vdn i^ vl mdi trudng hogt ddng khai thdc than, lu^t vi moi tnrdng Tip II, Nhi xudt bin Chlnh tri Quoc gia Hi NOi Hfi ding Nhi nude Vift Nam (1990), Phdp lenh Thui Tai nguySn ndm 1990, Hi Nfi Kim Loan, 2007, Than se liii vi qud khd, NXB Thi gidi dit lieu Hi NOi Qu6c hoi nude Cfng Hda Xa HOi Chii Nghra Vift Nam, 2009, Lu^t Thui tdi nguyin ndm 2009, Ha Nfi Nguyen Vin Song (2005), Gido trinh kinh te cdng CQng, Trudng D^i hgc Nong ng^fp Hi Nfi website ciia Ting eye thul www.gdt.gov.vn 10 website ciia Tap doin COng nghiep than vi khoing sin Viet Nam www.vinacomin.vn 11 Theo trang dien tii Vibonline.com.vn COBB - DOUGLASS APPLICATIONS IN ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTION OF COAL MINING IN VIETNAM Chu Thi Thu, Hoang Thi Dung SUMMARY Coal is one kind of non-renewable natural resouces which plays an important role in the national economy, particularly the country's energy security According to the survey results, the current rate of coal mining in Vietnam each year is about 40 million tons of coal Exporting crude coal accounts for about 50% which is the main part of coal consumption The rest is mainly for domestic consumption serving several key sectors of the country such as power sector, fertilizer, p^er, cement This article analyzes both qualitatively and quantitatively the fectors affecting die decision the coal mining production in Vietnam - a specific industry monopoly Based on the basis of economics , the Cobb - Douglass application authors to build an economic model of the fectors affecting coal mining production Factors affecting coal mining production in Vietnam, the group includes subjective elements and objective elements group and the intervention of the Government As a result the authors analyze the impact of thesefectorson yield coal mining will have important unplications for the use of coal resource efficiency - sustainable Keywords: Coal, Cobb - Douglass function, factors that influence, mining production Nguddphan bifn: ThS Trinh Quang Thoai Ngdy nhgn bdi: 13/9/2013 Ngdy phdn bien: 09/12/2013 Ngdy quyit dinh ddng: 10/12/2013 TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGH|: L A M N G H I ? P S - 2013 127 ... hinh khai thac than vd san xu^t tiian Than Viet nam dugc khai thdc chii yeu theo hai quy trinh cdng nghf khai thdc dd Id: khai thdc ham Id va khai thac Id thien Trong sudt thoi gian qua than. .. phdm 25 • Than nguydn khai tr.tin —*—3T1iai) IJfiuUig U.l^ii 20 15 • 10 - Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam 2005 2006 2007 200S 2009 2010 Bieu 02 Arii quan h$ khai thdc, sdn xuat va lieu thu than giai... lugng than nguydn khai Tren thuc te, tru lugng than Vidt nam trdn be mgt cdn lai rdt it, than hien ndm sdu 16ng dat D I khai thdc dugc than thi nganh dang dan chuydn khai thdc than Id thien sang