KGHCNCftl̂ Dir BAO PHAT min s6 LUDNG DOI NGU GIAO VI£N THCS VUNG 0 6 N G BANG SANG HdNG D^N N A M 2025 THS PHMI HOANG KHANH U W T6M TAT Dv bio phit triin dOi ngQ giio viin Tnjng hgccosd'''' vOng Bdng bin[.]
KGHCNCftl^ Dir BAO PHAT s6 LUDNG DOI NGU GIAO VI£N THCS VUNG N G BANG SANG HdNG D^N N A M 2025 THS PHMI HOANG KHANH U W T6M TAT Dv bio phit triin dOi ngQ giio viin Tnjng hgccosd' vOng Bdng bing sdng Hdng hi$n cdn nhiiu bit c$p nhit li ^ lugng, nSng It/c nghi nghiip tn/dc yiu ciu Si mdi cSn bin toin diin Chlnh vl viy, w ^ dy bio phit hiin (^i ngQ giio vlin c6 vai trd quan trgng bdi cinh hi$n Bii viSt di c$p din nt^t s6 phuong phip dg- bio phit triin s6 logmg (S^ ngQ giio viin Tmng hoc CO sd vdng Bdng bing sdng Hdng tOf Oin nSm 2025 T(^ khda: By bio, giio viin, €>dng bing s6ng Hdng, Tmng hgc ca sd 1.D$tvdndd Dv bdo Id mdt nhfin djnh vd tuang lai dva trfin ca sd khoa hpc vd ldnh nghifim ttivc tidn Nhdng nhfin djnh ndy cd ttid c6 ndn tdng khoa hpc vdng chde hofie ed ttid cdn thidu ea s d l^oa hpc thuydt phyc; chQng ed ttid ehlnh xdc ho$c chua chlnh xdc ttong tdng ttirdng hpp ed bifit; cd thd chi tidt hofie i^dng chi tidt; cd ttid dva ttfin ea s d phdn tich thdng tin hofic dva ttfin md hlnh Dv bdo ed thd duvc dua ttfin ea s d cdc II ttiuydt kdt hvp vdi kJnh nghifim hofic s d dyng nhdng phuang phdp vdi hfi hdng trdm phuang ttlnh kinh td luvng duvc kidm djnh ehfit c^fi; md ttidng ttiudng Id kdt hvp phuang phdp d}nh tlnh vd djnh lupng Gido dye - ddo tgo (GD-DT) dang cd nhdng bude ehuydn bidn m^nh me, nhifin vd quy md mgng ludi tivdng Idp, c a cdu dfil ngQ gido vifin dang tdn t^i mfit sd hgn chd nhu khfing ddng bfi vd chua hvp tjl theo tCrng bfi mfin, chdt lupng ddo t^o vd tidi dudng, chua ddp dng duvc nhu cdu gido dye nfin vific quy ho^ch tdng ttid d^ phdt ttidn GD-OT ddi hgn dva ttfin nh£rng ca sd d v bdo khoa hoc Id didu cdp ttiidt Do vfiy, dd ddm bdo cd d u v c dfii ngQ gido vifin dO vd sd luvng mgnh vd chdt luvng, ddng bfi vd ca cdu, tgo ttdn dd cho s v phdt tridn GDDT ttii vdn dd d v bdo phdt tridn dfii ngQ gido vifin hdt sdc cdn ttiidt D v bdo phdt ttidn dfii ngQ gido vifin d vCing ddng bdng ehdu ttid sdng Hdng Id mfit cdn c d quan ttong dd xdy dvng, quy hogch phdt ttidn gido dye ddo tgo cQa mdi dia phuang; cdn ed vdo d v bdo giQp cho chCing ta ttidy duvc xu hudng phdt tridn vd khd ndng nhin trudc tuong lai * Hoc v4n Qudn )^ giio dMC 4o * ' " " " " * "« ^ D ^ c u a mot m„>c mOt dia phi/cmg v i l nhtao S^n^ ^ , f / ^.^ ''^" ""^ ''*u , nham dem lai tvcrng iai phat triin ton cho nin Sf„„ TJ^Z '' •'i^" * * "t"* " " = " "^'ng eua giao due n.7ncnonen eOng tac dv bao giao dgc Nin giao due cOamOt , Dv bao phat triin dOingQ giao viin THCS «i " ^ ^ " ^ J ? " Phvcmg djc blot l i nin giao duo thiduvohiiuianhI>ngionaoanc6SnSS2 S"T"^J?*"'"^"«"c cis 2016-2017 1.001.153 35 28.604 1.9 54.348 BO GD&BTia 1.9 v l t h i d i 2017-2018 983.432 35 26.098 1.9 53.386 kit qui dv bio sit vii 2018-2019 965.257 34 thvc t i thi cin cfl mflt si biin 28.390 1,9 53.941 phip thiit ding nhv c i nhOng 2019-2020 946.620 34 27.842 1,9 52.899 quy djnh v i djnh mi>c GV/iflp, 2020-2021 927.513 34 27.280 1,9 51.832 ainh mVc HS/ iflp phi hvp 2021 - 2022 907.930 34 26.704 1,9 50.737 vfli thvc t i tCrng vCing; ting 2022-2023 867.862 34 cvflrng chinh sich dii vflrj dil 26.114 1,9 49.616 ngO giio viin; tao diiu kiin 2023-2024 867.302 33 26.282 1,9 49.936 thvc hiOn tit cic quy dinh vi 2024 - 2025 846.243 33 25.644 1,9 48.723 biin chi trvflng THCS TylfiHS Ting s i dfin Sitipcslnh trfin ting (nguM) (ngtfM) din s i • •TisctiwbiLtarioBw -NGNItllCOU 4.Z2 Dv bio phuong phip quan h$lfl$ 2018-2019 Phvong phap dva ti«n mii quan he t* 10 gil>a s i giao vlan va s i hpc sinh THCS 2019 - 2020 mil khoang thfli gian nhit djnh d i xic lap h i s i 2020-2021 ty 10 dv bao tvong lai avvc xac ajnh theo 2021-2022 cflng thvc: 64.926 927.513 63.555 907.930 67.568 965.257 66.263 946.620 2022-2023 62.150 887.862 2023-2024 60.711 867.302 2024-2025 59.237 846.243 Trong db; K|: Ham s i t ; 10 cua cic nam Tu/^o— — X ^ '^ ^ ' " "'*"' 9'«'u Vien THCS vung Ding bing sflng Hing hing nam Y,: SiGV THCS eac nam se o tmh trang thVa GV theo dinh mVe biin chi X,: S i hpe sinh THCS GV cua BO GD&Dt Nhung djc dilm hiOn Trong phsm vl nghiOn cVu cua bai viit niy tae gia thing k i s i Iwng hoc sinh s i Ivvng afli sing nhin dan mflt cao; giao dgc THCS dang timg bvflc din i n djnh v i quy mfl giSo viOn v i xac lip mii quan h i ty 10 giOa ail va ning cao chit Ivvng v i moi m i t giao dgc tvvng vflng nam tv 2008-2014 van hfla aoo aVc xay dvng tro*ng djt chuin Bing 7: Xic dinh hi si tf ii cOa eic nim quic gia tang cving Iflrp hoe buii/ thi tCr 2008-2014 ViOc dinh mi>c thira biin chi mfl'i dip Vng duve yiu ciu nhiOm vg Nimhpc S i gtto vlfin S i hpc sinh "i TO Kit luin 2008-2009 71.285 1.168.276 0.06 2009-2010 71.508 1.104.169 o.oe 2010 - 2011 70.116 Dv bao giao dgc la cv SOT d i xiy dvng chiin Ivvc quy hoach, k i ho?ch phit triin giao dgc cho mil dja phwng v i cua c i quic gia Day la 1.081.304 0.06 cflng viic khOng thi thiiu oja ngufli lam cing 2011-2012 69.102 1.053.902 0.07 tae quin ly giao dgc nhim giiip ngufli quin ly 2012-2013 69.339 1.045.492 0.07 dva cae quyit dinh ehlnh xic kip thfli va phfl 2013-2014 69.449 1.041.651 0.07 hop nhOng can eV a i a? tin ciy di hoach dinh 2014-2015 69.255 1.090.022 k i hoatfi phit triin giao dgc cua don v| Dv bao 0.06 phat triin aOingO giao viSn THCS la mflt phin On djnh qua eac nam vl vJy ta cfl thi chon d i khflng thi thiiu lap k i hoach phit triin hO tlnh hO s i dv bao cho cae nim Hip theo bina thflng giao dgc phi thing Nig cip THCS phit cflng thirc: triin manh me vOng chie se l i dflng Igc thflc K = 1/5 (0.06 + 0,07 + 0.07 • 0,07 + 0,06) = 07d i y tao t i ^ d i VOng chic cho cic cip hpe trOn v Do dfl ivvng giao viin THCS cua cae nam i tao nguin nhin Ivc tai ehi eho dja phuong Trin CO so nhl>ng kit qui khio sat v i thvc dv bio tlnh theo cflng thirehang GVTHCS viing Ding bing sing Hing, tic Y, = X,*0,07 gia bai vlit mong muin cic cip QLGD; (I) cin '•'»,•= 1018.427 * 0.07 = 71.290 ting euOng chit luong cing tic quy hoach da/ ngO GV THCS nhim ning cao chit luong day •"•as = 846.243 • 0.07 = 59.237 Bing 8: Du bio phit si luvng da ngd vi hoc *C4P THCS; m Diu bf, khuyin khkh ,301 giio viin THCS vOng Bing bing sing Hing " I S ' l ™ ' ' ^ •* '^ '^' '^ " " ^ a - (110 ting din nim 2025 (Don vi tlnh: nguOi) cj^nscflng tie dubio giio dgo Oi cd oil nhin Nim hpc 2015-2016 S i glio vlfin (yj 71.290 2016-2017 70.081 2017-2018 68.840 S i hpc sinh («J '"i" liin vi phit biin ai}l nga giio viin trin dia 1.018.427 UwhutnhOvgCB, GVo6ningb^rcchuyinnSn 1.001.153 983.432 7ng"X"H^."^'^'"'''"''^"' (Xem tify trang 14) ằ ly d c Unh huing xiy ra; nfli vfli sinh viin: BGDBT 15/8/2007) viic tim din d vin hoc lip nglm i n sv n i ive BO GD&BT Thflng hr s i 57/2012/rT- BGDBT eua d c em frong vlie giai quyit vin dk 27/12/2012 sfl'a ail, b i sung mflt s i diiu - Hi fro giii quyit vin d i : Gpi y v i phan d a Quy chi dio tpo dai hpc v i cao ding hi tieh chp sinh viin ttiiy rfl Ipi ich cua ttrng giai chlnh quy theo hO ttiing tin chi ban hanh kim phipfrongtrvflng hop cfla d c em; hvflng din ttieo Quyit dinh s i 43/2007/QB-BGDDT naSv sinh viin gip ngvfli d Uii giii quyit viOe 15/8/2007 niy (vl kinh nghiOm Kr frvflc dfl aa d sinh viin gip vin di Ivong tv); ngi y muin t i p tgc h i BO GD&BT, Quy chi hpc sinh, sinh viin cOc fro sinh viin nig sinh viin chva giii qgyit vin tnrflng dpi hpc, cap ding va trung d p chgyOn nghlOp ho chinh quy (Ban hanh kim theo Quyil a i cfla minh dinh s i 42/2007/QB-BGDDT 13/8/2007) Nhiing phin HchttOneho ttiiy kJ nOng tv Trin Thi iifinh Birc (2012), C i vin hpc ^ vin cfla ei vin hoc tip i i t i hop cfla d c ky cic trvflng Bai hoc, Nxb Bai hpe quic gia nangttianhphin, frong afl biiu hiin rfl nhit Ha NOi nhim ky ning: ky ning ling nghe; kJ nang flit d u hfli; ky nang cung d p thing ttn v i ky ning Abstract khich 10, aOng viin This article presents the level of knowledge Kit luin end basic skills that academic advisors tn credK C i vin hoc tip l i mflt dng viOc rit quan balning need hi have In oiderto be able impirm frpng ail vfli mil co sfl dip tpp ttiep h i ttiing the quality of university and college educathn Un chi Bin canh viic d ging n i Ivc ttm hiiu Keywonis: academk: advisor, bask hpc tip cua mii ngvfli lim d vin hpc tip d knowledge, bask: skills DVBAO PHAT TRifN Sd LU9NG DOI NGO 6IA0 V|£N T H C S I Zieotrongg} I Til llfu tham khio B.S.GersunxW HO Thi NgO', VQ Trpng RI NguySn Quic Chl, Bing Quic Bip dich, Khpa hpc dv bao giio dgc: Co sfl phvong phip luin v i 11 luin, iggo Tnrflng BH Kinh t i quic dan (2003), GiOp frinh dv bap phat triin Wnh t i - xa hOl Nxb Thing ki H Hi Thi NgO (1980) Dv bio giao dgc vin d i va xu hvfliig, ViOn khoa hpc Giao dgc ViOt Nam NguySn Van HO (2007), Dv bOo phat friin giao dgc Trvflng Dpi hoc sv phpm NggySn Trpng Hoii Phpm Khanh Duy (2009) Dv bao va phan tich liOufrongWnh l i v i tai chlnh Nxb ttiing ki U.iismmltiilMitiie Abstract Predating /ower secondary school teaching staff development In the Red River Delta Is cunently not possible, paitk>ulariy with regards to number and professkmal competence needed In order to cany out comprehanstn and fundamental Innovatkxi The ability to predict the need lor taaching staff Is thewlore quite Important This article presents method that could be used to pradkH the number ol secondary school teaching staff that will be needed In the Red f^er Delta behmen now and 2025 Keywords: forecast, development, teaching staff, hwer secondaiy school ... THCS duve dao tao theo hai trinh dO CBSP va DHSP, chuang trinh dao tgo hoac nam viic dao tgo GV THCS chu y i u eac tnrflrng CDSP dia phuang dam nhin Giao due THCS cfl 15 mfln hpc, giao viin THCS. .. Sadil: Biiu diin si luemg giio viin THCS vOng Ding bing sdng Hing tcrnim 2008 din nitn 2015 DOi ngQ GV THCS co ty l i nu cao GV (Nguin: Ting cvc Hi6ng l