KHA NANG THAIVI GIA CUA DAI LOAN TRGNG HIEP DINH DO! TAG XUYEN THAI BINH DlTONGfTPP) PHfHfiNGMIIIH- Tom tat: TPP My ddn ddt la mqt diem nhdn sdng nhdt birc tranh hqi nhdp kinh te khu vuc Chdu A-Thdi Binh Duong dang dien ddy sot dqng vd thu hut su quan tdm cOng nhu 161 keo su tham gta cua nhieu nuac vd ngodi khu vuc Du nhieu tinh todn chi nen kinh te "dimg ngodi le " cita Dal Loan se chiu thiet hgi lan nhdt mqt TPP va cdc thi che kinh te khu vuc khde duqc thdnh hinh, song vai nhicng rdo cdn lan tie "nhdn to Trung Quoc " va Ihdl dq trdng chung vd e de ciia My thi khd ndng Ddi Laan cd the tham gia vdn cdn het sice nho be vd cdn chiu chl phot ciia nhieu yeu to dgc bl?t Id quan he My- Trung cung nhu dien bien cue dl4n chit nghia khu vuc Chdu A-Thdl Btnh Duang thai gian tai Tir khoa: Dai Loan, My, Trung Quflc, TPP, Chifin lugc xoay tryc Gidi thif u Ngay sau mflt loat nhttng phat ngon va dflng thai rue rjch trd lai Chau A tir cufli 2010, chinh quyfin B Obama chinh thuc dua chifin lupc "xoay true" vfi Thai Binh Duong hay "tdi cdn bdng" vao miia thu nSm 2011 va diu 2012 Cung dieo dd, TPP tir mpt hifip djnh nhd cua bfln nudc Chau AChau Dai Duong va My Latin da dugc nang tam trd mflt cflt try kinh te ciia chifin lupc "xoay tr^c" Vdi tham vpng ciing cfl va tang cudng lgi ich kinh tfi cua My d khu vyc Chau A-Thai Binh Duong diy nang dflng, va dac bifit la chdng lai anh hudng kinh tfi gia tang manh me ciia Trung Quflc d khu vyc, cung nhu thifit lap cac quy tie chuan myc nhu mgt hifip djnh thfi he mdi "todn dien vd chdt luqng cao" kifiu miu cua thfi ky XXL TPP dang lam bung nfl mpt cupc chay dua djnh hinh kien true kinh tfi khu vyc Tu P4 ban diu, TPP da nhanh chdng tang TPP9 nam 2010, md rflng * ThS, Vi?n Nghien ciju Dong BSc A 40 TPPII nam 2012 va TPP12 nam 2013 vdi sy tham gia cua Nhat Ban - nfin kinh tfi ldn thir ba thfi gidi, khifin cho TPP trd khfli kinh tfi chiem tdi 1/3 GDP toan cau, va han 1/4 tflng thuong mai the gidi La mpt vifin cua 'WTO va APEC, Dai Loan cd tu each dfi tham gia TPP, va ban than Dai Loan da nhifiu lan thfi hifin mong mufln tham gia khfli thuang mai nay, tham chi tham gia TPP vdng 10 nam da dugc Tflng thflng Ma Anh Cilu xem nhu mpt trpng tam ke hoach tdi tranh cir nam 2012 ciia minh Bai vifit se tap trung phan tich thai dfl va chinh sach ciia Dai Loan dfli vdi vific tham gia TPP, nhung tac dpng kinh tfi ciia TPP dfli vdi Dai Loan va nhung trd ngai Dai Loan dang vap phai nhim dua nhung danh gia vfi kha nang tham gia TPP cua Dai Loan thdi gian tdi Quan diem va chinh sach cua Sai Loan viec tham gia TPP 2.L Quan diim cua Bii Loan vi TPP Dai Loan la mflt nen kinh tfi cd trinh dp phat trifin cao, nam nhdm "bfln NGHIEN cdu OONG B^C fl, sd 4(170) 4-2015 Nghien ciiu khoa hoc ho" Chau A Ngay tir nhOng thap ky 1960- tong ngoai thuang ciia Dai Loan nam 2012 70, sy tham gia ciia Dai Loan vao hoat dflng (xem Bang 1) Dong thdi, nam vien thuong mai diu tu, hay thudng dugc ggi la TPP bao gflm My, Nhat Ban, qua trinh khu vyc hda, d Dong A va thfi gidi Singapore, Viet Nam, va Malaysia ciing nam da bat dau va phat trifin nhanh chdng Ban nhdm 10 thj trucmg xuit khiu ldn nhit than Dai Loan cung la nfin kinh tfi cd dp md cua Dai Loan Ngoai ra, hai nfin kinh tfi idn kinh tfi cao va ddng gdp cua ngoai thuang nhat TPP la Nhat Ban va My la doi tac vao tang trudng lufln d mii:c 70-80% Xuat thucmg mai ldn thir hai va thii: ba cua Dai khau hang hda va djch vu ddng gdp 74% Loan, va ba nudc Dflng Nam A iai dfiu vao GDP nam 2012 Trong do, cac nen cd mfli quan hfi kinh tfi mat thiet vdi Dai kinh te vifin TPP chifim khoang 35% Loan Bang 1: Cac doi tac TPP va vai tro cua ho dfli vdi Dai Loan, 2012 Ting dan so (trieu ngu&i) Australia Brunei Canada Chile Nhat Ban Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Peru Singapore My VietNam Taiwan 23 0,4 35 17 128 29 115 30 314 90 23 Xuil Nhdp Xuil Cdn cdn Nhgp thuimg khdu cua khdu cda khdu khau cda Ddi cua Dat mgi Bai Ddi Loan Ddi Loan Loan (ty Loan (ty Loan (ty (% tdng (% ling USD) USD) nhgp xuat USD) khdu) khau) -5,6 3,4 1,2 1.542 9,3 3,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 17 0,0 0,9 0,6 0,8 2,5 1.819 1,6 0,7 0,1 0,4 268 -1,5 1,9 17,6 6,3 -28,6 19,0 47,6 5.964 2,9 2,2 6,6 -1,3 7,8 304 0,6 1,8 1,2 0,2 0,6 1.177 GDP theo t^ gid hien hanh (ty USD) 170 199 277 15.685 138 474 0,7 0,3 8,1 23,6 2,3 103,9 0,5 0,3 20,1 33,0 8,4 96,3 -0,2 0,0 12 9,4 6,1 -7,5 0,3 0,1 3,0 8,7 0,8 38,4 0,2 0,1 6,7 10,9 2,8 32,0 Ngadn: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2013, Taiwan National Stalislics and Ministry of Finance Tren thyc tfi, cac ddng thuang mai ciia Dai Loan vdi cac nudc Ichu vyc chiem mpt ty le ldn la thuong mai ngi nganh, dflng NGHIEN cilu SONG BflC ^ SO 4(170) 4-2015 thdi Dai Loan va cac nudc khu vyc ddng vai trd nhu mat xich quan trpng mang san xuit va chufli cung iing khu vyc 41 Nghien cihi khoa hgc v4 quflc tfi, dac bifit la cac nganh chfi t?io difin, difin tu, cflng nghfi thflng tin va truyfin thong (ICT), dfit may, Mac dii Dai Loan thucmg xuyfin chju tham hyt thuang mai vdi Nhat Ban song lai rat phy thuoc vao viec nhap khau cac linh phu kifin may mdc trung gian quan trgng tu doi tac Trong do, nganh dfit may, thi hau het cac cong ty Dai Loan md cac nha may gia cong tai Viet Nam va cac nudc Dflng Nam A khac Cac nudc nhjp khiu phin Idn cac lo?i vai sgi, hda chat, phy kifin nganh may til Dai Loan hay Trung Quflc dfi gia cflng pham cuoi cimg Trong nganh ICT thi gin 50%i dan hang xuit khiu cua cdc cflng ty Dai Loan dupc thyc hien tai Trung Quflc rfli xuat khiu sang cac nudc khfli OECD khac nhu My, ChSu Au Viec nim ngoai TPP se djt cac nganh san xuat ciia Dai Loan chju ap Iyc canh tranh manh mfi khflng dugc hudng cac uu dai theo quy djnh xuat xu npi khfli TPP Do do, sfi din tdi vi$c cac doanh nghifip thugng ngufln va trung nguon cac nganh cflng nghifip hS trg chuyen din diu tu sang cac nudc thu^c TPP dfi hudng cac uu dai nfli khfli Hfi qua la, Dili Loan se din tdi sy rflng mpt cac nganh cflng nghifip chu dao Bang 2: Quan he thuong mai ciia Dai Loan vdi TPP-12 va Trung Quoc (%) % kim nggch nhdp khdu ciia Ddi Loan % kim nggch xudt khdu cua Ddi Loan 2011 2010 2009 2011 2010 2009 TPP (TPP-12) 35,55 36,27 36,15 31,26 30,12 30,65 Trung Quflc+Hflng Kflng 28,71 28,97 27,89 40,24 41,79 41,09 Tdng 64,26 65,24 64,04 71,5 71,91 71,74 Nguon: Taiwan Ministry of Economic AJfairs (MOEA), 2012 Ngoai ra, bfli canh Dai Loan dang cang trd nfin phy thupc vfi kinh tfi vao Trung Quflc, thi chinh quyfin Dai Loan rit mong mufln tim kifim mflt trang thai can bang, giam bdt sy phy thuflc thai qua vao nfin kinh tfi Hoa lye Bfin canh dd, nhitng gidi h ^ vfi vi thfi chinh trj da khifin Dai Loan het sue chSt vat ttong cac nfl lye tim kiem FTAs song phuang Viec nim ngoai ifi cac khfli thuomg mai khu vyc cung nhu han chfi kha nang tim kifim cac FTAs song phucmg vdi cac dfli tac thuong mai chinh dang va se lam sut gidm nghifim trgng nSng 42 iyc canh tranh cua hang hda Dai Loan trudc cac dfli thli kinh tfi chu yeu tir Han Quflc, Trung Quflc, ASEAN va Nhat Ban DSng chu y hon la vific Han Quflc da ky kfit FTA vdi EU (2010) va My (2011) vdi nhttng nfli dung chat lugng cao se cang de dga siic canh tranh xuat khau cua hang hda Dai Loan hon sy tuong dflng cac mat hang xuit khau giua Dai Loan va Han Quflc Ifin dfin 80% Chinh vi vay, ca gidi chinh tri, hpc thuat ciing nhu doanh nghifip vS ngudi dan Dai Loan dfiu xem vific Dai Loan dUng ngoai TPP ciing nhu cac hmh thiic hpi nhap kinh tfi NGHIEN Cdru OONG BflC R s d 4(170) 4-2015 Nghien cihi khoa hoc khu vuc khac sfi cang lam tyt giam hon ntta nfli vdi khu vuc Chau A-Thai Binh Duong, site canh tranh kinh tfi trfin toan ciu ciia hon va trifin khai toan ciu - Thyc thi ty hda kinh tfi mpt each toan dao Vi thfi, ttt cufli 2010, Dai Loan da nhifiu lan thfi hifin mong mufln tham gia vao difin nham thu hiit cac cflng ty da quflc gia TPP; va ke hoach "tham gia TPP vdng thifit lap cac try sd difiu hanh khu vyc tgi Dai 10 ndm " va nit xuflng thdi han "8 ndm" (tile Loan - Xay dyng Dai Loan nhu mot cflta ngo la trudc 2020) da dupc thflng thflng ducmg nhifim Ma Anh Ciru dua vao thang cho cac cflng ty trfin khip thfi gidi tham gia 11/2011 va hien dang gia tflc thyc hifin thi truomg Chau A-Thai Binh Duang - Tao dyng dan din cac difiu kifin dfi dat Thing 2/2014 vira qua, dudi sy phfli hgp ciia Bfl Ngoai giao va Bfl cdc vin dfi Kinh tfi, dugc myc tifiu tham gia TPP Hien t^i, Dai Loan da gap nit hoan mpt cupc tpa dam ldn da dupc to chirc vdi sy tham gja cua 17 vj truomg dai dien Van hai hifip djnh thuang mai vdi Singapore va phong Dai BSc d 17 quflc gia vifin New Zealand, tim quan trgng dac biet TPP va RCEP nham tim hudng di cho vific cua hai dfli tac dfli vdi Dai Loan khflng Dai Loan tham gia hai khfli thuang mai chi vfi kinh tfi ma cd yfiu tfl chinh trj Ca hai quflc gia deu la vifin sang lap khflng Ifl Theo dd chinh quyfin ong Ma TPP, nfin Dai Loan hy vpng vific thiet lap dang the hifin mflt quyfit tam m?nh me nham dupc hifip djnh thuang mai vdi hai quoc gia huy dpng mgi kfinh, mpi ngufln lye sBn cd dfi md cd thfi tao thuan lgi cho Dai Loan xiie tien chuang trinh TPP d tflc nhanh v&l dgng, dam phan gia nhap TPP nhit cd the Trong trudng hgp, Dai Loan chua thfi vao thi 2.2 Chiin luac Iham gia TPP cia Bdi Dai Loan cilng cd thfi hudng lgi thflng qua Loan cac kfinh dau tu va thuang mai gian tifip Ngay trudc chuin bj qua trinh tranh Bfin canh do, Hiep djnh Khung vfi Thucmg Cll lin hai, nSm 2011, Tong thflng Ma da dua mai va Diu tu (TIFA) gitta Dai Loan va My tim nhin "Thidp ky Vang" nhim dam bao bj hoan l?i tir 2008 da dugc nfli lai vao cufli mpt Dai Loan thjnh vupng, hfli nhap va phat thang 3/2013 dflng ca chinh tri hon la y trifin Trong tim nhin "mpt nfin kinh tfi cd nghia vfi kinh tfi Mac dii cac van dfi lifin sire sflng manh lifit", chifin lupc chii dao dau quan dfin vific nhap khau thjt bd va thjt lon tifin la "ma cua vd dinh vi todn cdu" nham ciia My dac bifit la chinh sach cim thjt bd tao mgt mfli trucmg kinh doanh quflc tfi nhap khiu tir My cd tfln du ractopamine tao thuan lpi cho sy tSng trudng kinh doanh ciing khifin chinh quyfin Dai Loan gap phai d Dai Loan, cling cfl sure canh tranh quflc te nhimg phan doi dan chiing va tu khu ciia Dai Loan, md cua va xay dyng kfit nfli vyc nong nghiep ciia Dai Loan Song, chinh quflc tfi, thiic dSy xuat khau va tao thfim co phli Dai Loan hy vpng khdi dflng lai cac hpi vific lam Theo dd, chifin lugc cd cac cupc thao luan TIFA vdi My se thiic diy vi?c dam phan thucmg mai vdi cac dfli myc tifiu sau; tac thuang mai khac, va cd thfi giiip Dai Bac - Tich cyc dam phan va ky kfit cac hiep thu dugc sy ung hp ciia My va tao difiu kien djnh hgp tic kinh tfi va thuong msii (EGA), thuan lpi hom cho hdn dao cd thfi tham nfl lye tham gia vao hpi nhap khu vyc, kfit gia TPP cQng nhu tang cudng hom ntta vj thfi NGHIEN cdru DONG B^C A sd 4(170) 4-Z015 43 Nghien cihi khoa hge ngogi giao cua minh Dai Loan ciing hy vpng vao kha nang dat dugc mpt sy thfla hifip chinh trj vdi Trung Quflc nhim tham dy sau hem vao hfli nhap kinh te khu vuc Tac aSng ciia TPP len nen kinh te Bai Loan 3.1 Trong Iru&ng hpp Bdi Loan tirng ngoii TPP La mgt quflc gia cflng nghifip mdi ciia khu vyc, Dai Loan cung da tham gia tich cyc mang san xuit va chufli cung iing d ChSu A va toan ciu va la mgt mit xich quan trgng cung ung cac san phim trung gian cac ngdnh cflng nghfi thflng tin, d?t may Ngoai ra, vi|c cac cflng ty Dai Loan diu tu manh vao Trung Quflc da bifin Trung Quflc trd thdnh m^t cflng xudng chfi tgo chinh yfiu cho cac cflng ty ciia Dai Loan Vi dy nhu llnh vuc san xuit phin cung IT ciia cac cflng ty Dai Loan thi 90,6% dupc sdn xuit tai cdc nhd mdy d Dgi lye Theo Hu (2013) thi hai d?c trung ddng gdp cho sy tang trudng bfin vttog ciia nfin kinh tfi Dai Loan hifin tgi la; 1) Sy ehuyfin mfln hda san xuat nganh ICT, va 2) sy tap trung vao cac thj truomg xuit khiu d Trung Quflc va cac nudc ASEAN Theo Bang cho thiy 50,91% cac dem hang xuit khiu ciia cac cflng ty Dai Loan dugc thuc hifin d hai ngo^i dfi tan dyng nguon nhan lye re, song 47,36% dom dat hang tuong ducmg 93,03% sfl dan thyc hifin hai ngo^i 1^ dugc thyc hien d Trung Quoc Dji lye Trong cac dem hang xuit khau ICT, thi 84,56% dugc thyc hi^n d nudc ngoai va 82,61% la san xuat tai Dai lye Va chinh nhihig mat hang Iji la danh myc ma Hoa Ky nh2p khiu nhifiu nhat tu Trung Quflc Dfli chieu vdi nhihig quy djnh vfi ngufln gflc xuit xil hang hda va ty lfi thyc hifin "nqi khdl TPF' mdi dupc hudng cac uu dai thuomg mgi ngi khfli TPP se khien cac san phim xuit xir ngoai TPP se phai chju thufi suit cao hon Va do, cac nganh kinh tfi chii lye cua Dai Loan va kha nang canh tranh vfi xuat khiu hang hda ciia hdn dao se chju thifit hai nSng nfi nhit tir vific nim ngoai TPP Bang 3: Vj tri nganh che t^o theo dom hang xuit khau ciia Bai Loan, 2012 Tdng sS Hda chat Nhya, cao su, cdc thdnh phim Thifit bi difin tit Mdy mdc San pham di$n San pham ICT Co chinh xac Vj tri ngdnh cdng nghifip chfi tao Thi trir&ng Thj trtr&ng Trong do: Bai Loan nir&c ngoii Trung Qudc 49,09 50,91 47,36 79,43 10,51 13,22 81,30 18,70 15,39 47,64 52,36 44,92 81,30 18,70 14,33 32,16 67,84 65,27 15,44 84,56 82,61 43,49 56,51 53,73 Nguon: Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) 2012 44 NGHIEN Cdru OONG BflC fl sd 4(170) 4-2015 Nghien cihi khoa hoc Theo nghifin ciru cua Petri, Plummer vd Zhai (2013) vific Dai Loan nim ngodi TPP cd thfi lam gidm 0,1% GDP cua Dai Loan nam 2025 nhdm TPP 12 (bao gflm Nhgt Ban) hifin thyc Tuy nhifin, GDP ciia Ddi Loan se mit di thfim 0,3% Han Quflc gia nhap khfli (TPP 13) Cung theo do, xuat khau nam 2025 cua Dai Loan se syt giam 0,6% vdi vifin cdnh TPP12 va 1,0% vdi vifin cdnh TPP13 Tuy nhifin, mflt TPP md rflng thfim Thdi Lan, Philippines, vd Indonesia trd thdnh TPP 16 kfit hgp vdi sy hinh ASEAN+3 thi se gay syt gidm 0,8% GDP nam 2025 ciia Dai Loan va lam xuat khdu thifit hai 2,5% Nhu vay, vific ndm ngoai ca TPP va Hifip dinh Dfli tdc Kinh tfi Todn difin Khu vyc (RCEP) hifin tai dang bit dau ddm phan se cdng cfl lap Dai Loan vfi kinh tfi hon Tuy nhifin, mfl hinh ciia Petri vd cpng sy mdi chi xem xet vific Ddi Loan bj cfl lap hodn todn vdi TPP va RCEP cung nhu khflng cd mpt hifip djnh thuomg mgi ndo vdi cdc nudc vifin cdc khfli Hifin tai, Ddi Loan da dat dugc Hifip djnh dfli tac kinh tfi vdi New Zealand vd Hifip dinh hpp tdc kinh te vdi Singapore Do day la hai quflc gia nam phan giao thoa giua TPP va RCEP dflng thdi Id thdnh vifin ciia hai khfli, nfin tdc dflng tieu cyc ciia TPP cung nhu RCEP se nhd hom so vdi tinh todn mo hinh ciia Petri, Plummer vd Zhai, song nd vin dnh hudng tifiu cyc manh me den phiie lpi chung cua Ddi Loan 3.2 Trong Iru&ng hap Bdi Loan Iham gia TPP Trong nghifin cilu ciia Chien vd dflng sy (2013), thi vific tham gia TPP se giiip tang trudng kinh tfi ciia Ddi Loan tdng thfim 1,1% va xuit khiu se tang 2,4% vdi tflng phiic loi se tang them 18.500 ty USD Bfin canh dd NGHIEN CdlU DONG BflC A, Sd 4(170) 4-2015 mucri nganh dupc Ipi Ich nhifiu nhdt tir TPP Id da va cac san pham da, Iflng cim vd ta tdm, dfit may, cay cho dau, sgi, may, cac nganh chfi tao khac, cao su hda chat vd cdc sdn phdm nhya, trflng trot, va cdc ngdnh chfi bifin thyc pham khac Trong do, mucri nganh se chju thifit hai nhifiu nhat gdm; thjt bd (sut gidm -7,84%), liia mi (-5,98%), cdc sdn phdm stta (-5,32%), sua (-5,31%), chan nufli (-4,09%), cac san phim thjt (-3,28%), cac san phim duomg (-3,05%), mia duomg vd cu cdi ducmg (-3,01%), cdc sdn pham chdn nufli khde (-2,65%), rau qud vd hat (-2,32%) Do dd, vfi CO ban cdc nganh dugc Igi chii yfiu id khu vyc sdn xuat chfi tao cdn cac nganh chju thifit hai chu yfiu nam cdc nganh chfi bifin thyc pham vd nong nghifip Theo tinh todn Ichdc cua Cyc Ngoai Thuomg cua Ddi Loan thi vific tham gia TPP se giup xuat khiu ciia Ddi Loan tang Ifin 10,6 ty USD mfli ndm' Trong dd, khu vyc cong nghifip nhu dfit, hda chat vd nhya, sdn pham cao su, hang may mac, dfl da, sdn phim kim loai, Iinh phy kifin to, sfi thu lgi nhifiu nhdt Hon ntta, 12 thdnh vifin TPP hifin dang chiem 35% tflng ngoai thucmg cua Dai Loan ndm 2012 Nhat Ban va My la dfli tdc thuong mai ldn thii: hai vd ba cua Dai Loan Tham gia TPP se giilp Dai Loan md rpng thi truomg xuat khiu, din djch chuyen cdc hoat dpng ngogi thucmg cua hdn dao vfi cdc quoc gia TPP vd giam bdt sy phy thuflc thdi qua vdo Trung Quoc md Dai Loan dang rit Io ngai Dac bifit Id hifin tgi quan he kinh te hai bd dang ehuyfin dan tir hpp tdc sang cgnh tranh md cdc doanh nghifip Hoa luc dang din din ty sdn xuit cac thdnh pham, linh phu kifin tinh te ky thuat cao Do ' WantChinaTimes (21/4/2013), Export wouU US$10,6bn if Taiwan joins TPP: official surge 45 Nghien cihi khoa hge Dai Loan mac dii da cd nhumg hgn chfi diu tu vdo nhttng linh vyc cong nghe then chflt cua Dai Loan, song ciing rit e nggi tmh trgng bi nit mgt cflng nghfi ciia cdc doanh nghifip trfin thj tradng Dgi luc Ngodi ra, vdi nhumg ngi dung todn dien bao hdm ca cdc quy djnh vfi dau tu, quy chuan Iudt phap, thuang mai djch vy se ddi hdi cac quflc gia tham gia cd nhifiu cdi cdch sira dfli Trong tracmg hgp Ddi Loan, khu vyc djch vy nhit la llnh vyc cham sdc sue khde, tdi chinh, ngan hang, bdo hifim, thuong mgi difin tli, djch vu gid trj thap se can phdi md cira, ty hda ciing nhu ddi hdi cdi each, ciu tnic Igi Tuy nhifin, Ddi Loan cung hy vpng, mac dii Ichu vyc djch vu ciia Dai Loan se chiu dnh hudng Idn tir vific tham gia TPP song cdc hpc gid Ddi Loan lai nhin nhan day nhu Id mpt ca hfli dfi cai cdch vd tai ca cau ngdnh vd tang ty hda thj tmcmg todn difin va bfin vumg (Hu, 2013) Cac tifiu chuin sfi giiip ddy nhanh qua trinh nang cap cong nghfi cua Ddi Loan Ifin mile cao hom vd tang siic cgnh tranh cho nfin kinh tfi Trd nggi doi vdi viec tham gia TPP ciia Bai Loan Ddi Loan d5 Id vifin cua Tfl chirc Thuang mgi Thfi gidi (WTO) va Difin dan Hpp tac Kinh tfi Chau A-Thai Binh Ducmg (APEC), nfin vfi nguyfin tac thi Dai Loan cd quyfin theo dufli cdc FTAs vdi cdc thdnh vifin WTO vd cd khd ndng tham gia cac hinh thirc hgp tac thuang mai de xudng khufln kho cua hai tfl chirc Trfin thyc tfi, TPP cilng Id mgt sdng kifin tdng cudng hpp tdc kinh tfi va ty dp hda thuomg mai cua cac vifin APEC sau Muc tifiu Bogor dinh trfi vd khong cd kha ndng hifin thyc Chinh vi vdy, Dai Loan van cd quyfin 46 vd cd khd nang tham gia TPP, song Dai Loan se gjp phai cdc rdo cdn sau; 4.1 Rio cin chlnh Iri ben ngoai Vific tham gia TPP cua Ddi Loan cung nhu cac nfl Iyc xiic tifin FTAs ciia hdn dao tmdc lufln vap phai rao can ldn nhat Id "nhdn td Trung QuSc" gin lifin vdi nguyfin tic "mqt Trung QuSc" cua Bdc Kmh Theo nguyen tic nay, Dai Loan khflng thfi tham gia bit ky tfl chile quflc tfi ndo dfli hfli phdi cd chii quyfin quflc gia Va dfli vdi cdc nfi Iyc md rpng khflng gian quflc tfi ciia Dai Loan, Tmng Quflc vfi ca ban cd hai difiu kien; (1) Khflng dugc ddn dfin viec hinh tinh trgng "hai Trung Quoc" hay "mot Trung QuSc, mqt Ddi Laan", va (2) Ddi Bdc cin tham khdo y kifin Bdc Kinh tmdc (Glaser, 2013) Hifin tgi, ttong khufln khfl APEC dang hinh thdnh hai khfli kinh tfi ldn cd tinh canh ttanh vdi nhau, TPP dugc My din dau vd khflng cd Tmng Quflc cdn RCEP (Hifip djnh Dfli tdc Kinh tfi Toan difin Khu vyc) dupe Tmng Quoc djnh hudng vdi tam Id ASEAN va khflng bao gom My Mac dil Ddi Loan cd myc tifiu tham gia cd hai khfli song khd ndng tham gia ca hai khfli van cdn rit nhfl nhoi Trong mot cupc gap gifta Chii tich danh dy Ngfl Bd Himg ciia Quflc Ddn Ddng vd Chu tjch Tap Can Binh cua Dai luc thdng 6/2013 da dfi xuit khd nang dua Dai Loan tham gia mflt cdch han chfi sau RCEP da hoan va dudi nhiJng difiu kifin cua Tmng Quflc Cdn dfli vdi TPP thi thdi dp ciia Tmng Quoc vdn chua rfl rang, cd thfi thdy vific Tmng Quflc da Id di vi$c Dai Loan trifin khai vd ky kfit hifip djnh thuong mai vdi New Zealand (thdng 6/2013) vd Singapore (thang II/20I3) Tmng Quflc cd thfi khflng mufln gay khd dfi can ttd sy md rpng khdng gian quflc tfi cua Dai Loan, vi NGHIEN cdru OdNG B^C fl, s d 4(170) 4-2015 Nghien citu khoa hoc difiu cd thfi din tdi vific suy gidm ca hpi tifip tuc ndm quyfin ciia Quflc Ddn Dang ttong thdi gian sip tdi Trong mpt khia cgnh khac, vific Bac Kinh song song thiic diy tifin trinh ttifin khai cac hifip djnh theo sau ECFA kfit hgp vdi sy im ldng thai dp dfli vdi viec tham gia TPP cua Ddi Loan cd thfi cd mpt muc tifiu khac Cd thfi Bdc Kinh mufln su dung Dai Loan nhu mflt ca sd cho vific tham nhgp TPP gidn tifip md khflng qua qua trinh tham gia dam phan, bdi vific tham gia cua Ddi Loan sfi dfi ddng hom so vdi Dai lye rat nhifiu Tuy nhifin, trudng hpp hifin tai Id My chua cd y kifin chinh thilc dfli vdi dfi xuit tham gia TPP ciia Ddi Loan nfin Tmng Quflc cung dang nghe ngdng vd vi thfi chua cd y kifin ro rang Mpt Tmng Quflc yfiu cau tuan thii nguyfin tdc "mqt Trung Quoc" theo dd hodc ca hai hogc ciing tham gia, hogc ciing dirng ngodi thi se thyc Id trd ngai rit ldn dfli vdi Ddi Loan Do dd, "yfiu tfl Trung Quflc" Id bifin quan trpng vd thudng khflng thfi dodn djnh tmdc dupc Vfi phia My, hifin thdi ngudi ta cho rang vdn cdn nhifiu phan van vd y kifin ttdi chifiu vific iing hp hay phan dfli Dai Loan tham gia TPP Tuy nhifin, dirng ttudc chifin lupc ldl cdn bdng trd lai Chau A ciia My, Ddi Loan cd thfi cd nhieu co hfli hem mflt My xem xet hdn dao nhu mpt mat xich quan frpng ttong cdc chuang trinh "xoay true" Hon ntta, thang 6/2012, gidm dfle Hpc vifin Hoa Ky tai Ddi Loan, Raymond Burghardt, da tuyfin bfl My chdo ddn viec tham gia ciia Dai Loan vdo TPP mflt Ddi Loan gidi quyfit triet de cdc hanh vi bdo hg nghifim trpng vd "Washington se phdn doi cdc no lire mudn logi Ddt Loan khdl hiep dinh tren ca sa chinh trC'^ Tifip dd thdng 3/2013, Chu ^ AFP 02/6/2012), US baclis Taiwan in trade pad NGHIEN cdru OdNG B^C s d 4(170) 4-2015 but tjch Hpi dflng Thuong mai My-Ddi tifip tuc khuyen khich Dai Loan cin thuc diy cac sang kifin ttong TIFA vdi Hoa Ky vd thyc hifin cdc budc quan ttpng tifip theo hudng vdo vific tham gia TPP^ Thang 3/2014 vua qua, Phd ttp ly Ngogi trudng Kin Moy da khang djnh My chdo ddn sy quan tam ciia Dai Loan doi vdi TPP va Trg iy Ngogi tmdmg D Russel khang djnh vao thdng 4/2014 rang My iing hfl Dai Loan "tham gia vdo cqng dong quoc te trcng cdch thuc thich hap vai tu cdch mqt nen kinh te lan vd xa hqi hien dgi co nhieu ddng gdp"* Ngodi ra, nhtmg tham vgng ciia hdn dao ndy mong mufln chifim vj tri din diu Iinh vuc su dyng ndng lupng mat trdi, cong nghfi sgch, cflng nghfi bio- vd nano-, va cdc ngufln ndng lugng mdi rit thich hpp vdi nhumg tifiu chi "todn dien vd chdt luqng caq" md TPP dfi ra' Ben cgnh thdi dp cua Trung Quflc vd My thi Dai Loan cdn cin phai gianh dupe sy chap thuan cua tdt cd vifin rifing lfi cua khfli TPP, difiu kifin cdn thifit dfi mgt nfin kinh tfi cd the tham gia TPP thi ddi hdi phdi dupc sy chap thugn ciia timg quflc gia thdnh vifin va cd TPP nhu vai ttd cua mot nhdm Hifin tai, Ddi Loan da ky kfit dugc Hifip djnh Hpp tdc Kinh tfi (ECA) vdi New Zealand, vd Hifip djnh Dfli tdc Kinh tfi (ASTEP) vdi Singapore Dai Loan ky vpng ky kfit dugc later ^ US-Taiwan Business Council (11/3/2013), Taiwan, TIFA & TPP Taiwan needs the Trans-Pacific Partnership Now •• Huang Kwei-Bo (2014) Beyond the Cross-Strait Trade in Service Agreement: Seeking a "2014 Consensus" for Taiwan, Taiwan-U.S Quarterly Analysis (Brooldng Instilution), Vol 14, No 14 ' US-Taiwan Business Council (11/3/2009) US-Taiwan Business Council supports Taiwan's inclusion in tfie Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement, tren http://www.us-taiwan.org/reports/2009_ marchl _council_statement_taiwan_tpp.pdf 47 Nghien cicu khoa hgc hifip djnh thuomg mgi vdi hai vifin cua nhdm P4 ttong TPP se thu hut dupc sy ung hfl ciia hai thdnh vifin ndy dfli vin vific Dai Loan tham gia TPP Mat khde, ttong tmdng hgp Ddi Loan khflng thfi tham gia TPP thi hifip dinh thucmg mai vdi hai doi tdc ciing giup dem lai lpi ich cho Ddi Loan thflng qua quan he thuang mai dau tu gidn tifip Bdi Ifi, dau tu cua Ddi Loan vdo hai quoc gia cd thfi dat dugc yfiu cau xudt xir nfli khfli TPP vd cd thfi hudng dugc nhihig uu dai ttong thuang mai ngi khfli Nhu vdy, mpt TPP chua dgt dupc, Ddi Loan cung khflng thfi nhan dupe sy ung hp tir phia My vd cac nudc vifin ddm phdn TPP de trd thdnh mpt dfli tac tham gia ddm phdn vai trd dnh hudng nhfl cua Dai Loan va nhdn tfl Tmng Quflc cdn trd Cdn vdng hai, TPP dgt dupe thdnh cflng, ca hpi tham gia cua Ddi Loan cung van rat nhd vd chju sy chi phfli ciia nhifiu nhan tfl bat dinh 4.2 Thich thicc lir ben Bai Loan Mdc dil, cd sy dflng thudn cao ttong cac quan chttc chinh quyfin, gidi hpc gid, dai da sfl ngudi dan Ddi Loan vfi tam quan trpng vific tham gia TPP Tuy nhien, TPP vin sfi phdi dfli mat vdi mflt sfl vdn de npi bfl cdn phdi giai quyfit Chdng han nhu gitta hai myc tifiu tham gia TPP vd RCEP md Ma Anh Citu da dua thi cd sy khde bifit frong lya chpn gitta cac ddng phdi vfi thir tu uu tifin TPP dugc lifin hifip Lye (do DPP Ianh dao) cfl vu frong dd Lifin hiep Lam (KMT dimg diu) Igi ua thich RCEP hon Mac dil ua thich TPP My din ddt hon la RCEP Tmng Quflc djnh hucing, song nhftng ngudi theo Dang Dan Tien (Phiem Iuc) Iai cd thifin hudng bdo hfl thj tradng hem Do tap tmng d phia Nam vdi frinh dp phat trifin thap hon, nhumg ngucri Phifim Lye 48 ciing tap trung ttong nhihig ngdnh yeu the hom nhu nong nghiSp, dich vy thip Do do, nhftng khu vyc my yfiu thfi vfi kinh tfi song Iai rat manh vfi chinh trj sy tap trang chii yfiu Phifim lye - phe dfli lap vdi Quflc Dan Dang dang cim quyfin Do dd, sy khflng thda man cua nhdm ngudi ndy Igi co thfi gdp phan ttd ngdi nfl cho sy khflng ling hp sy cdm quyfin ciia Quflc Dan Dang cung nhu hfi lyy khac cho quan he hai bd Eo bifin vd tac dpng ngupc trd Igi gay cdn fro cho nhitng nfl Iyc tham gia quflc tfi ciia Ddi Loan Song nhin chung thdi dp cua ngucri Ddi Loan lai ua thich tham gia TPP My Ianh dgo hon vi hp e sg sy tham gia manh me cua diu tu, thuang mgi cua Dai luc vao hdn ddo cd thfi gay nguy hai vfi chinh trj, an ninh Horn nfta, so sanh vdi Trung Quflc cung cho thay rdng tdng cudng thuong mai, cdi thifin dau tu vdi My, Nhdt Bdn sfi giiip Ddi Loan thiic diy ehuyfin giao cong nghfi cao hon vd hifiu qua hem Ket luan Mac dil TIFA md dudng cho viec xiic tifin Ddi Loan-My FTA vd cd vific tham gia TPP ciia Ddi Loan song viec hdn ddo ndy tham gia TPP vin chua thyc sy dupc khuyfin khich Hom nfta dfi tham gia TPP thi chinh phii Ddi Loan sfi mit nhifiu thdi gian dfi giam thifiu nhttng anh hudmg tieu cyc Ifin khu vuc dich vu va nflng nghifip npi dja Vfi mat chinh trj, TPP hifin thdi giflng nhu mpt khfli chifin lugc dupc din ddt bdi My chflng lai Tmng Quflc chir khflng chi dom thuin Id mgt he thong thuang mgi ty Tuy nhien, sau ba lin trfi hen ndm 2011, 2012 vd 2013 thi kha nang thdnh hifin thyc cua TPP vin dang gap nhifiu rdo can gitta cac thdnh vifin dam phdn va thdm chi npi bp nudc My Vi vdy, vific Dai Loan tham gia TPP sfi NGHIEN Cdru OONG BflC fl SO 4(170) 4-2015 Nghien cihi khoa hoc dem lgi lpi ich cung nhu bit lgi cho cdc bfin nhu the ndo dac bifit la gifta My vd Trang Quflc, cung nhu se din tdi nhftng thay dfli dia kinh tfi, dja chifin lugc khu vyc vin cdn dang dupc cdc bfin tinh toan ky ludng Do do, khd nang tham gia TPP cua Ddi Loan thdi gian tdi vdn la mot cau hdi ngd, nd se phy thupc vdo cdc difin bifin chu nghIa khu vyc Chdu A-Thdi Binh Duomg thdi gian tdi, cung nhu sy thay doi frong lap tmdmg, thdi dp cua cac chit thfi chinh tham gia cupc chai Study of the iPod and notebook PCs", Bai trinh bay ttong The Sloan Industry Studies Annual Conference Boston, MA May 2008 Glaser, Bonnie S (2013), "Taiwan's Quest for Greater Participation in the Intemational Community", Report of the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, thang 11/2013, 66 trang Humphrey, J (2004), Upgrading in Global Value Chains, Geneva; Intemational Labor Organization Hsu, Bo-Xian (2013), "The hnpacts of Major Trade Pacts on Taiwan's Economy and Their Consequences", APEC Newsletter, June, No 165 TAI LiftU THAM KHAO 10 Hu, Sheng-Cheng (2013), "Taiwan's Phi Hong Minh, "Chien lugc FTA cua Dai Next Phase of Development", bai trinh bay Loan boi cdnh hfli nhap kinh tfi khu vyc hoi thao tai Dai hoc Standford: TPP and Dong A", Tgp chi Nghien cthi Ddng Bdc A, So Taiwan's Future Development Strategy, 1(143)/2013 vd 2(144)/20I3, Trang: 11-21 va 11-12/10/2013 11 Petri, Peter; Michael G Plummer; va Fan 33-42 Baldwin, Richard (2004), "The Spoke Zhai (2011), "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trap: The Hub and Spoke Bilateralism in East Asia Pacific Integration", East West Center, Asian, Seoul: Korean Institute for Intemational Working Paper, Economic Series, No 119, ngdy Economic Policy", CNEAC Research Series, 04- 24/10/2011 12 Petri, Peter; Michael G Plummer; va Fan 02 Chiang, Chung-fan, Jin-Tan Liu, va Tsai- Zhai (2013), "Adding Japan and Korea to the Wei Wen (2013), "Individual Preferences for TP?", Asia Pacific Trade, 7/3/2013 Trade Partners in Taiwan", Economics and Politics, Vol 25 No 1, trang 91-109 Chien, Sheng-Yu; Szu-Yu Lai, Chin-Jung Wang, Meng Hsuan Lin, va Hsiao-Fang Chen (2013), "The Impacts of the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement on Taiwanese Economy", NCCU: Intemational Business, lEl Chu, Wan-wen (2009), "Can Taiwan's Second Movers Upgrade via Branding?", Research Policy 38, trang 1054-1065 Dedrick, Jason et al (2008), "Who Profits from Innovation in Global Value Chains? A NGHl£^ ((• OdNG B^C (i s d 4(170) 4-2015 49 ... lpi chung cua Ddi Loan 3.2 Trong Iru&ng hap Bdi Loan Iham gia TPP Trong nghifin cilu ciia Chien vd dflng sy (2013), thi vific tham gia TPP se giiip tang trudng kinh tfi ciia Ddi Loan tdng thfim... cdn fro cho nhitng nfl Iyc tham gia quflc tfi ciia Ddi Loan Song nhin chung thdi dp cua ngucri Ddi Loan lai ua thich tham gia TPP My Ianh dgo hon vi hp e sg sy tham gia manh me cua diu tu, thuang... vdi viec tham gia TPP cua Ddi Loan cd thfi cd mpt muc tifiu khac Cd thfi Bdc Kinh mufln su dung Dai Loan nhu mflt ca sd cho vific tham nhgp TPP gidn tifip md khflng qua qua trinh tham gia dam